Grade Distribution of Branch Mint Gold Coinage

It is interesting to study the grade distribution patterns for various branch mint gold issues. By this, I am referring to what percentage of a certain issue’s survivors exist in a specific grade range. In order to apply this to a practical numismatic situation, I am going to use the Dahlonega quarter eagle series as my lab experiment. Any assumption that I make in this blog is series specific.

By this, I mean that what applies to Dahlonega quarter eagles doesn’t apply to New Orleans half eagles or San Francisco eagles. And within the Dahlonega quarter eagle series there are differences; as an example the issues from the 1840’s are likely to have different grade distribution patterns than those from the 1850’s due to a number of factors. In the case of Dahlonega quarter eagles, the primary consideration is that of usage: these coins circulated differently in the 1840’s than they did in the 1850’s.

I think the best “base line” Dahlonega quarter eagle to use in our brief study is the 1843-D Small D. This is the most common date in this series both in terms of overall and high grade rarity. It has the highest mintage figure of any quarter eagle from this mint, and with over 500 examples known, it can be found in a variety of grades.

According to the most recent data from PCGS, there have been a total of 243 coins graded. This number, of course, is inflated by resubmissions, but it gives a good indication of the grade distribution for this issue. According to PCGS, the grade distribution is as follows:

• VF and lower: 58 coins (23.86%)
• EF: 77 coins (31.68%)
• AU: 97 coins (39.91%)
• Uncirculated: 11 coins (4.52%)

Before analyzing this, there are a few things to remember. First, there are probably more raw low grade 1843-D quarter eagles than there are high grade ones, meaning that the number at the low end of the grading scale could easily inflate if these were ever submitted. Secondly, the number of coins in very high grades (in this case AU58 and Mint State) is clearly inflated on account of the financial incentive to upgrade a coin. An upgrade from VF25 to VF30 is pretty meaningless, but an upgrade from AU55 to MS60 translates to a not inconsiderable amount of money. And lastly, the grade range that has seen the most gradeflation in the last decade is AU, meaning that a significant number of coins graded AU50 or even AU53 by PCGS would not necessarily qualify as such if broken out and submitted again.

Taking all of these caveats into consideration, this grade distribution makes sense to me. I expected at least 60-70% of all 1843-D quarter eagles to grade EF45 and below, and according to PCGS’s figures, the current percentage is 55.54%. If we were able to dismiss all the superfluous AU submissions included in the numbers above, and punt all the marginal AU50 coins that are actually EF’s, this figure might well be close to 70%.

I think that the actual number of 1843-D quarter eagles which grade AU is more likely in the 25-30% range; not all that far off from the 39.91% figure shown.

By any stretch of the imagination, Uncirculated 1843-D quarter eagles are rare. My best estimate is that 15-20 are known, and many are marginal MS60 to MS61 examples. In MS62 and MS63 there are likely no more than four to six and none finer.

The grade distribution for the 1843-D Small D quarter eagle is reasonably similar to that seen for the 1844-D, 1845-D, 1846-D, 1847-D, and 1848-D. These are six of the most available quarter eagles from this mint and they represent the Golden Age, if you will, of commercial use for this denomination in the antebellum south. Beginning in 1848, gold discoveries in California made the Dahlonega (and Charlotte) mint redundant, and by 1854, mintage figures of all C and D mint denominations except half eagles were cursory at best.

There is a Dahlonega quarter eagle whose grade distribution is complete different than the 1843-D; enough so to be a complete anomaly within the series. This is the 1857-D; let’s look at the PCGS figures.

A total of 70 1857-D quarter eagles have been graded by PCGS. The by-grade breakdown is as follows:

• VF and lower: 4 coins (5.71%)
• EF: 6 coins (8.57%)
• AU: 45 coins (64.28%)
• Uncirculated: 15 coins (21.42%)

The 1857-D is the second to last quarter eagle from this mint with an original mintage of only 2,364 with an estimated 125-150 known. As long as I have specialized in Dahlonega coins, I’ve noted that the 1857-D is almost never seen in VF or EF grades, and most of the survivors are in the AU53 to AU58 range.

What is most interesting about this date is that so many of the survivors have a similar look. The typical example in AU55 to AU58 has an “Unc-ish” appearance with many of the hallmarks of a Mint State coin but with either light friction or soft hairlines suggestive or a gentle old cleaning. And, on most of the high grade coins, the color and quality of luster are similar.

These facts combined with the PCGS grade distribution lead me to believe that the 1857-D is a hoard coin. I can’t prove this—and even if it is true I know nothing specific about the so-called hoard. But the fact that 85% of all 1857-D quarter eagles graded by PCGS are AU or Uncirculated is interesting and is completely different in pattern than for any other date in this series.

There is one final Dahlonega quarter eagle with a grade distribution pattern which varies from the norm but for a different reason: the 1856-D.

The 1856-D is not only the rarest quarter eagle from this mint; it is the rarest single issue of any denomination. Only 874 were struck and around 45-55 are known in all grades.

The distribution by grade is very interesting; let’s take a quick peek at how the PCGS has graded the 35 they have recorded:

• VF and lower: 5 (14.28%)
• EF: 8 (22.85%)
• AU: 21 (60%)
• Uncirculated: 1 (2.85%)

There are many interesting things about these numbers, but two points need to be mentioned first. The 1856-D is an extremely poorly produced coin which is exceptionally hard to grade. I have seen 1856-D quarter eagles which could be graded VF30 just as easily as they could be graded AU50. It is also important to remember that as a rarity within the series, PCGS (and NGC as well) tend to push the grade on the 1856-D quarter eagle. Because it is such a rare coin, a nice EF45 example is typically graded AU50 or AU53 with little complaint from specialists.

I think the PCGS grade distribution for the 1856-D is skewed way too far towards AU and I very, very seriously doubt if “60%” of all known examples grade AU50 to AU58. But given the difficulty of grading this issue, I can understand how this is the case.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this blog, the grade distribution for each series depends on a number of factors. Age and the original mintage figure are obvious and important, but there are less subtle factors at play such as perceived rarity, appearance of the coin, whether or not a hoard exist(ed), and if examples were expatriated to Europe and are now returning to the American market.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The Third Annual RYK/DWN "Mashup"

Are you ready for a third RYK/DWN Mashup? Sure you are. Let’s get the background information out of the way and then get to the meat of the matter. This is, I believe, the third time collector Robert Kanterman and I have exchanged questions and answers about a variety of topics (the first was a two-part article). We’ve covered a lot of ground in the past; some of it warm and fuzzy, some of it, controversial, but all of it interesting and relevant. (Previous "installments" can be found here, here, and here.)

The format for this year is a bit different than in the past. I asked RYK five questions which he answered, and he did the same for me. After each of our respective answers, we each add some pithy comments. Simple, right?

Just remember the code: DW = Douglas Winter, head of Douglas Winter Numismatics, and gold coin specialist, while RYK = Robert Kanterman, collector extraordinaire, and popularizer of the DOG, or Dirty Original Gold coin.

Questions that DW asked RYK:

1. What is the most undervalued series of us gold and what is the most overvalued? Why?

2. If you had unlimited funds, what would you collect?

3. What are three books on us gold you'd like to see written?

4. Has grading gotten more conservative or looser in the last two years?

5. Originality is finally in vogue. How much more are original coins worth versus commercial quality coins?

RYK’s answers with DW’s comments:

1. To be honest, I do not see anything that is truly undervalued at this point in time. If I had to pick one area, I would suggest that the most undervalued series of US gold to be No Motto Philly $5's and $10's. Some of these dates are really tough, and even the more common dates are tough to find in better grades and original condition.

The most overvalued areas to me are New Orleans and Carson City $20's. They are far more common than their valuations would suggest, especially the more prevalent dates (1851-O, 1852-O, 1875-CC, 1890-CC, etc.). I see 1851-O $20's in ugly XF going for $4500—which seems outrageous for an easy date/MM.

DW: Wow, what radiologist got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? I disagree about the “what’s undervalued” comment. I think there are dozens of good values to be had in the Liberty Head gold series. As an example, Philadelphia quarter eagles from the 1840’s and from the 1867-1877 date range are really good deals right now. There are many San Francisco quarter eagles and half eagles that can be bought for less than $5,000, which are rare both in terms of absolute and condition rarity. I think a case could be made for calling nearly any C or D mint coin in truly original EF and AU grades a relatively good value given how hard they’ve become to find. Even seemingly mundane coins like nice AU No Motto eagles from Philadelphia at $1,000-1,500 are great values for collectors. And I can think of many more examples!

I see RYK’s point about calling O mint and CC double eagles “overvalued,” but you have to remember that the demand for these coins is huge. When you could buy CC double eagles in EF for $1,500 these were just flat-out undervalued coins. At today’s levels they are clearly not cheap anymore. But always remember these coins are big, have a great story, and are promotable. To a new collector, a nice CC $20 at $3,000-5,000 still seems like a fair value.

2. My first stab at this was to pick proof $20 Libs—a big, beautiful trophy coin, if ever there were one. However, as infrequently as these appear on the market, and if you add some criteria for quality and originality, despite the unlimited funds, you might not be buying many coins.

More realistically, I think that I would rebuild a series like Dahlonega $5's in MS-62/3/4 and model it after the original Duke's Creek and Green Pond collections.

If I am allowed to stray outside US Mint gold coins, I would probably do something in territorials, perhaps a high-end type set.

Finally, outside US coins completely, and not requiring a huge budget, a Pillar dollar date set in original XF/AU is something that would be really cool and interesting to me.

DW: I’m a little surprised that RYK mentioned Proof $20 Libs as this doesn’t strike me as a very RYK-esque series. I would have actually guessed he’d have picked a date run of early gold; possibly Fat Head half eagles.

Love the idea about re-building the Duke’s Creek and Green Pond collections. Just let me say that if you decide to do so, I’m here to help!

Like the idea on Territorials, but I’d caution that buying these coins requires extreme knowledge of the series and a good working relationship with an informed, savvy dealer.

And I’m crazy about the Pillar Dollar date set. That would be something that I would actually like to do for myself. Or maybe a date run of Mexican 8 Escudos gold coinage.

3. A Collectors Guide to San Francisco Gold Coins (1854-1880) — notice the date range.

An Encyclopedia of Original XF Branch Mint Gold Coins, 1838-1861.

Gold Coin Collectors and Dealers of the 19th and 20th Centuries.

DW: I’ve been kicking around a SF gold coin book for years. I’d need help to do it and, unfortunately, the two dealers I asked to help have contributed a collective sum of zero pages. I agree with RYK that the post-1880 coins tend to be easily over-lookable and the real interest lies in the earlier issues.

The second book seems a little self-serving (bad RYK, bad!), but it gives me an idea. It would be neat to do a web-based photographic record of totally crusty individual coins filed by date. A photographic record, if you will, of DOG gold. I probably have enough photos already available to partially complete this project and, in fact, if you go to my "Coinapedia," you can get an idea of how many of these photos I already have. Anyone with web savvy care to help…?

The third project is kind of interesting as well; I’m assuming RYK would want biographic sketches of collectors and dealers who specialized in US gold coins. Pete Smith did a project along these lines around a decade ago that was outstanding.

4. To be honest, I submit very rarely, and only to PCGS. I think that there is a psychology to grading that leads to grading decisions that are greatly affected by the other coins that the grader has seen on a given day, in a given session, immediately before and after your coins, the mood, the last phone call with the spouse, the time of day, etc. That said, I will have to say that when grading my coins, the grading service seems more conservative than when they grade the next person's coins. ;)

On a more serious note, I have seen some overenthusiastic grading of special collections when they get evaluated as a group. I am not going to call anyone out, but most people will know what I am talking about.

I would say that grading has become more conservative over the last five to seven years, and I am not sure that I have noticed much change specifically in the last two. I do see fewer obvious problem coins in newer holders. Maybe we should say that the grading services are getting better (and maybe Don Willis and Scott Schechter will remember I said so next time I submit some coins).

DW: That is an excellent answer and there isn’t much I can add to it. I like RYK’s point about special collections being graded “specially,” but if I had a $5 million deal of, say, fresh Dahlonega half eagles, you are darn tootin’ that I’d expect the grading to be “enthusiastic.”

5. Originality is indeed in vogue, and I am going to take some credit for spreading the gospel. DOGs (Dirty Original Gold coins) rule!

That said, the premium is complicated but certainly exists in ways that are difficult to characterize or articulate. I will attempt to make my point:

1. Original gold coins will sell much faster than non-original gold coins of the same grade. This is indisputable.
2. The premium for the original coin can range from zero (if purchased from a seller who does not appreciate originality) to 100% or more. I think an average would be around 20-25%.
3. Sometimes the obviously unoriginal coin lingers on the market for a very long time, and it is hard to ascribe a value to it.
4. There are an increasing number of collectors, like myself, that are buying the right look, irrespective of the grade, and it is very hard to say what the premium for doing so is.

DW: Wow, this guy RYK, he’s a confident fellow, no? Taking credit for spreading the Gospel of Crust…wonder where he learned that from?

I couldn’t agree more with answer #1. If you look at what sells on my website, the crustiest coins are the best received. Duh.

What sort of premium do these coins sell for? Let’s take a random example. A decent, but not really nice, common date C mint half eagle in PCGS EF40 is worth around $2,000. The same date in EF40 but with a deserved CAC sticker (dark, mellow surfaces and few appreciable marks) is easily worth $2,300; maybe even $2,500. For a coin like an 1861-D gold dollar or an 1864-S half eagle, a completely crusty example could sell for a much bigger premium than this.

As a rule, I’d say that True Crust certainly adds 10-20% and in certain exceptional cases, the premium could easily be 50% or more.

Questions that RYK asked DW:

1. Four gold coins that have risen dramatically in value over the last ten years are the 1861 branch mints. If you had to pick four to hold for the next ten years, and could not pick these, which four coins would you pick? Which group of four would you rather have?

2. Many people say that today's modern coins are tomorrow’s classics. Do you see any future classics among today's moderns (post-1986)? If I made you choose one…

3. Pocket change is becoming less and less a part of daily life. What impact, if any, will this have on specifically gold coin collecting, in your opinion?

4. The current high-end coin marketplace is strongly influenced by the duopoly of PCGS and NGC (with some nudging from the CAC). 80 years ago, Ford and GM dominated the car marketplace. Under what circumstances do PCGS and NGC become lesser players, or even inconsequential? Same question for Heritage and Stacks-Bowers.

5. What is the most expensive-liquid (high demand) gold coin and least expensive-illiquid (low demand) gold coin that surprised you among coins that you have owned, bought, or sold in the last couple years?

And a special “mulligan” question to be named later…you’ll have to read on to see the question and the answer!

DW’s Answers with RYK’s Comments:

1. It’s hard to narrow this down to four coins, but the following four were chosen for one or more of the following reasons: popularity, “uniqueness,” multiple levels of demand, standalone qualities. The four coins that I would pick, and some reasons why, are as follows:

• 1854-S quarter eagle: This date has finally been recognized as a Classic Rarity but it is still wildly undervalued when compared to a coin like an 1894-S dime. I just bought the fifth finest known of 12-14 known for under $300,000 and, in the rarified air of Classic Rarities, this seems cheap to me.
• 1870-CC eagle: Here is a coin with so much going for it: rare in all grades, first-year-of-issue and history out the wazoo. A lovely EF40 just sold for less than $50,000 and I think this is cheap, especially when compared to the only slightly rarer 1870-CC double eagle.
• 1854-D three dollar: This is another issue that has everything going for it: low mintage, odd denomination, one year status, etc. It’s not as rare as you think it might be but most of the “AU” examples are stripped-n-dipped and a really nice, wholesome example at its current market value seems like good value.
• 1875 eagle: This is not a cheap issue but I don’t think many people know how rare it is (well under 10 known business strikes) and how scuzzy most of the survivors are. Given how wildly popular Ten Libs have become, this is a coin I could expect selling for $500,000 or more in the near future with just a wee bit of promotion.

RYK: Those are all excellent choices, but in the spirit of one of my favorite Thanksgiving activities, I am going to throw the yellow flag for roughing the collector by including coins that are as scarce as 94-S dimes! I like the 70-CC $10 as a choice—I wish I purchased the XF-45 example one you had on your website when I first started coming around 11+ years ago. I am less enthusiastic about the 1854-D $3, in part because my enthusiasm for $3's has waned over the years. I might include such coins that are more available like the 1795 $5 (which seems to have backed off from recent highs), the 1838-D $5 (which continues to lose ground to the 1838-C $5), the 1838 $10, and the 1861-O $20.

2. Oh, great, you would have to ask me a question about moderns…a subject I know absolutely nothing about. So, how about those Blazers…

I’m sure there are future scarcities among the post-1986 coins, it’s just that I have no idea which these are.

And please make sure to take a breath mint on your way out the door….

After taking the Modern Coin Walk of Shame, the ever generous RYK asked me a question about a subject I actually know something about.

SECRET HIDDEN QUESTION ALERT!!!

2a RYK: If you could have the entire series of Dahlonega $5's except, the 1861 (1838-1860), in circulated condition OR own only the 1861-D $5 in MS-62 from the series, which would you prefer? Assume the sum of the value of the 25 coins is roughly the same as the value of the 1861-D.

2a DWN: Hmmm…that’s a great question. My answer would depend on the quality of the coins themselves. If the 1861-D was just a so-so coin, I’d probably go for the quantity option. If the majority of the other coins were nice, I’d select that option. As an “investment” option, I’m pretty sure I’d want the 1861-D but from the standpoint of being a collector, I’s want the virtually-complete set of D mint fives.

RYK: In my question, I am assuming that all coins are quality for the grade and the sum of the value of the first 25 was about equal in value to the higher grade 1861-D...and I would select the One Coin (to rule them all...).

3. I don’t think that the direction we are taking to becoming cashless will impact collecting. I am not that old, but I can’t remember finding cool coins in change, and I still fell in love with coins at an early age.

Here in Portland, I am seeing a renaissance of old things. Young adults in their 20’s here love vinyl, they dig typewriters, and they go gaga for books and ‘zines. I can see this happening with coins as well. No more change makes these little round discs a lot more interesting.

RYK: I am going to agree with my friend from Oregon. Things that are obsolete become collectibles, and despite the fact that gold coins have not truly circulated for generations this has not limited their popularity. Just in case, I am going to buy my own smelter...

4. I could see something happening in the next decade to shatter the PCGS/NGC duopoly. What if exceptionally good counterfeits pass through the graders undetected? How would PCGS or NGC explain their inability to detect these coins? What if an insider trading/insider grading scandal rocked one of the services? It isn’t likely but it could possibly happen.

Or what if a better mousetrap is invented? Say someone patents really effective computer grading with the ability to interpret eye appeal?

Heritage and Stacks Bowers certainly control a good share of the market but they aren’t infallible. Say a hedge fund saw opportunity in the coin market and threw a lot of money at creating a firm to directly compete with the Big Two. It would be expensive but there is enough talent out there to topple them. And don’t forget about good old fashioned hubris. As you pointed out in your example above, Ford and GM seemed infallible but they never considered that the Japanese would make a better, cheaper product.

RYK: I am usually the last person to see the end of the line for a company, a fad, species, etc. That said, counterfeit holders (containing counterfeit or misrepresented coins) seem to be more likely to be a threat than counterfeit coins, at least in the near future. While on the surface, business seems to be booming at the Big Two, business conditions could change on a dime (no pun intended!), possibly leaving one of the other - or both - flatfooted. Perhaps if a consortium of very well respected numismatists came up with a better mousetrap, they could give some competitions, especially in the wake of a scandal or public controversy.

As for the auction environment, the Legend-Morphy entry, at the high end, and Great Collections, as a soup-to-nuts entry, both seem to have legs and are clearly taking away business from the Big Two. Neither of the new entrants currently seems to be a major threat to the dominance, but they are certainly chipping away.

Bottom line: ten years from now, Heritage and the latest iteration of Stacks-Bowers will still remain the Big Two, as will PCGS and NGC.

5. The most expensive ultra-liquid gold coin, in my opinion, is probably a Stella. They are worth $200,000+ for a nice one, but I could sell a bunch of them right now for a fair price and get paid within 72 hours. The least liquid would have to be in a very thinly traded area like patterns. If you had a High R-7 pattern (around 3-4 known) is might be a surprisingly hard sell if the one or two major collectors already had one.

RYK: I do not know much about Stellas (other than the fact that I once held five in one hand at lot viewing), but I probably should throw a penalty flag for illegal use of the pattern in a numismatic conversation, not once, but twice, in the same paragraph. My first thought was that the High Relief Saint was the most expensive and liquid gold coin, but coins like 70-CC $5 and $10, and 1861-D $1 and $5 sell very quickly when offered for a fixed price—almost no matter the price! I also continue to be surprised by the shipwreck coins, especially from the SS Central America, that sell for higher and higher prices as time goes by.

As far inexpensive but illiquid, in the context of gold coins, I would say that there seems to be a cadre of ugly, puttied, and/or otherwise abused gold coins from the southern branch mints that is perpetually available for sale.

So, there you have it. Another installment of the RYK/DWN Mashup!

Do you buy rare gold coins? Do you have gold coins you care to sell? Would you like to have the world’s leading expert work with you in assembling a set of coins? Contact Doug Winter via phone at (214) 675-9897 or email him at dwn@ont.com.

The 1863 Eagle: An Unheralded Rarity

One of my favorite American coins is the 1863 eagle. I had a lovely NGC EF45 pass through my hands recently and it inspired me to write a blog about what I think is one of the absolute rarest Liberty Head eagles. Production of this issue was limited to a scant 1,218 business strikes, and I rate the 1863 as the third rarest Liberty Head eagle after the 1875 and the 1864-S. There are probably fewer than 30 known in all grades, with most in the EF40 to AU50 range. There are very likely as few as six or seven known in AU grades and two in Uncirculated; more about these a little further down the page.

A quick search of auction records shows that no problem-free 1863 eagles have sold since October 2010, and only seven records exist for problem-free coins in the last decade. My records show that I have handled exactly two pieces in the last five years: an NGC EF45 and a PCGS AU53.

When available, the 1863 tends to be bright from having been cleaned or dipped and it is invariably very heavily abraded. This piece shown above is one of the very few circulated pieces that I have seen with natural color. There are a few small abrasions on the surfaces, but they are much cleaner than usual.

There are two high-grade 1863 eagles known. The finest is the Bass IV: 683 coin which sold for $52,900 in 2000; a price which, at the time, I thought represented possibly the single biggest bargain all of the three Bass sales which featured gold coins. Bass had, through an agent, bought this exact coin in August 1991 for $104,500. Harry didn't lose money on many coins but he got spanked — and good — on this one; all the more remarkable considering that it is the finest known example of a truly rare issue and it is exceptional for the grade. Today, it would bring considerably more than in either of its previous auction appearances.

The other Uncirculated 1863 eagle is an MS62 that was found as part of the S.S. Republic treasure. I have never personally seen this coin, but it is in the collection of a western specialist along with many other finest known or Condition Census pieces from this shipwreck.

Civil War gold coins have been very popular in recent years as a result of the sesquicentennial of the war plus promotions/popularization by dealers such as myself. While it is not well-known outside of the specialist community, it is my belief that there are currently many collectors who would appreciate a nice 1863 eagle in their holdings.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world's leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

A Letter from a Collector Regarding the Newman Sale

I recently received a really thoughtful email from a reader of this blog - and with his permission am reproducing it in full. November 16, 2013

An Open Letter to Doug Winter

Hi Doug,

On the day following the Eric Newman Part II early silver auction, I wanted to take the time to thank you for all you’ve done for the hobby over these years. In internet parlance, I’ve been a lurker, someone who follows a blog for some time without contributing. Truth be told, I’ve never even done business with you, despite calling you some years back regarding a branch mint coin. Back to the story, I read your recent blog regarding your experience with the Newman preview and was inspired to view it. Engineering a trip to NYC earlier this week, I had the pleasure of previewing the auction which you had described as “one of the most pleasurable coin-related experiences [you’d] had in years”. Not being a collector of early silver, I’ve always been intrigued by its beauty and historical significance. Add the beautiful toning from the Wayte Raymond albums’ sulfur to what was already a gorgeous assembly of high-grade coins and you were certainly right that this was an historic opportunity.

Like most collectors, I don’t have unlimited resources to commit to coins. Since I have historically concentrated upon territorial and gold-rush period shipwreck coins, I’ve typically felt that a dollar spent on non-territorial, moves me away from my specialty. Frankly, after viewing the magnificent Newman collection, I felt like the proverbial fellow at the dance who keeps falling in love with the last girl he danced with (read “the last coin he viewed”) as I went through box after box. After attending on-line and reviewing the results of last night’s Signature auction, I could hear in my head many of the lessons you’ve written about over the years. To loosely paraphrase you, here are a few:

• fresh material that’s been off the market for years brings spirited bidding

• with the really good coins, don’t be surprised that today’s price that seems a stretch will look like a bargain in retrospect

• superior eye appeal can transcend traditional grading values and pricing

• a good (in this case, great) collection is worth more than the sum of its parts

• use of a knowledgeable, honest, good-hearted dealer (readers of your blog know you resemble that remark) can add tremendous value

To make a long story short, I fell in love with many of the coins, and was prepared to buy a few based on pre-auction bid prices. I had done my due diligence as best I could by viewing comparables on the auction websites and reviewing population data. Note to self, many coins were so appealing there were few visible “comparables” to judge fair pricing. As the bidding developed, I quickly saw that factors 1) thru 4) above were at work, bringing prices multiples of what I had determined were already solid prices. Not having significant experience with early silver, nor the time to consult a knowledgeable dealer, I was on my own.

I passed on most lots I had identified as their prices went to levels way beyond my estimates, although they may very well look like bargains later. Truth be told, I bought only one coin, solely because I thought it was cool on multiple factors. The coin is the 1817 over 3 bust half dollar in MS-64, Lot 33447. The factors:

1. a big, bold, well-struck coin with great Wayte Raymond toning and almost cameo-like eye appeal

2. a very visible error with the 7 looming over much of a 3; magnification not necessary to enjoy and much more prominent than the 1815/2 error which goes for big money

3. interesting vivid clash marks on both sides, very visible given the strike and toning

4. proof-like features so prominent that they were noted by Eric Newman and Walter Breen and the subject of considerable discussion

5. well-nestled in the condition census by grade, only 11 of 70 Heritage auction appearances were uncirculated, with few near gems, and frankly, none I liked more

6. provenance before Eric Newman was “Colonel” Green, son of Hetty Green, known as the witch of Wall Street; interesting history and connection to two great collections

7. I’m not sure if the Newman envelope that accompanies the coin reflects his acquisition or offer price, but he paid or valued it at $100 many years ago, far more than many of the other coins in this auction. I know it’s not scientific, but buying it for $28,200 seems a bargain when many other coins annotated by Newman for much less than $100 sold for a quarter million dollars or more.

It wasn’t quite graded a gem and it doesn’t have the CAC bean. It may not have the PCGS look. As a traditionally gold coin guy, I have trouble appreciating and viewing the somewhat muted toned “original” look much early silver exhibits; I like the flash. Perhaps I overpaid or knowledgeable folks could find fault, but it literally jumped out of the box during my preview. It turned me on for the above reasons and shall proudly sit in my cabinet to remind me of this historic sale for years to come!

Closing the loop, I wanted to thank you again for what you do for the hobby. Keep on dealing and writing. I’ve read and enjoyed all your branch mint books and I visit your website often to view your inventory and gain perspective. Your enthusiasm is contagious and your eye for the right look in a coin is superb. Don’t ever think that because you don’t get feedback on a particular piece you write or a sale from every interaction you have with a collector, you are not making an impact. It is folks like you (and Eric Newman, thru his generosity) that knowingly or not mentor, develop, and inspire the future collectors that keep our hobby vibrant. Developing future generations of collectors should be a goal of us all.

Please feel free to publish this article if you see fit, but withhold my name for privacy reasons. I hope this gives you some material, so you can have a well-deserved break from the excellent writing. Thank you.

Our writer also attached a wonderful photo of himself, with his 4-month old daughter, bidding on the 1817/3 bust half. He plans to give it to her when she’s old enough to understand. Thank you to our ghost-writer for sharing!

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have gold coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert working directly with you when assembling a set?

Contact Doug Winter at 214.675.9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

When the "Best" Coin isn't the "Better" Coin

In many series, collectors are slaves to the holder. By this, I mean, they make purchases which aren’t always prudent based on what a PCGS or NGC holder says. This is most prevalent in Registry-oriented 20^th century series such as Lincoln Cents and Washington Quarters (amongst others) - series in which a single grading point can inflate the value of a coin by 5, 10 or even 20 times.

This tends not to be the case with classic 19^th century gold coins, but every now and then a situation arises in which a coin which is theoretically the highest graded may not be the best purchase for an advanced collector.

A situation involving this scenario emerged at the recent Baltimore Stacks Bowers auction and I’d like to share my thoughts.

Please note that this is not meant to be a negative rant about the following coin, and the buyer of this coin is, no doubt, happy with his or her purchase.

The 1876-S eagle has long been a favorite issue of mine. It has a small mintage of just 5,000 coins, and I think five or six dozen exist, with most in the VF to EF grade range. I have never seen an 1876-S which grades higher than AU53 to AU55, and my best estimate is that there are around six or seven properly graded AU examples known. Until recently it was an unloved and generally undervalued coin.

In the recent Stacks Bowers Baltimore show, a newly graded PCGS AU55 example of this date was offered. In theory, this is the “finest known” example as it is a population one, none finer, coin. It sold for $22,325. I examined the coin and, in my opinion, it was sub-par for the grade. (Had it been a very choice coin for the grade, I think it would have brought closer to $30,000).

While $10 Libs are not a typical Registry Set series, there are a few advanced, deep-pocketed collectors who are specializing in these coins. And the opportunity to acquire a PCGS finest known coin—with the “points” this would add to such a set—is an unusual opportunity to say the least.

But what if a cheaper example of this same date was actually a “better” coin? What if an 1876-S eagle graded AU50 by PCGS were more original, more appealing (in my opinion), and a fraction of the price?

Back in their 2011 ANA auction, Stacks Bowers sold a PCGS AU50 example of an 1876-S eagle. I didn’t buy it even though, in retrospect, I probably should have.

Take a look at this coin:

I think it compares favorably to the PCGS AU55 shown above. It is a bit less “meaty” but it is more original, less “baggy,” and has comparable—if not better—overall eye appeal.

Most intriguingly, it sold for just $6,325 - or around a quarter of what the AU55 brought.

Here is an instance where Registry-mania caused a so-so coin to sell for a lot of money but didn’t have an impact on a nice, slightly lower grade coin because it wasn’t “the finest known.”

Examples like this are becoming more and more prevalent in the area of 19^th century United States gold coins.

The moral of the story? Don’t always trust the plastic you buy to equate with the best value in your series. There is no substitute for knowledge and, in many cases, this knowledge will save you money and provide you with a better overall collection.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have gold coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert working directly with you when assembling a set?

Contact Doug Winter at 214.675.9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

First Impressions of the Newman Sale

I’m freshly returned from Dallas, where I attended a spectacular coin dealer wedding, and combined the nuptials with viewing the remarkable silver coins that are being sold on behalf of Eric P. Newman. I spent close to two full days viewing, and it was one of the most pleasurable coin-related experiences I’ve had in a long time.

I’ll be writing more blogs on the Newman sale as I think it is one of the most important numismatic events which will occur in many years to come. But I’d like to share a few impressions about the coins — namely the appearance and surface preservation.

In a nutshell there were basically three types of coins in the sale:

1. Coins which were spectacular before they were stored long term, and which were carefully handled in the ensuing 50-75+ years.
2. Coins which were average quality before they were stored, but which have toned superbly and which now appear “better” than they might actually be.
3. Coins which may (or may not) have been nice, but which were not well-stored and now are dull or drab. These are coins that almost certainly will be dipped if they are purchased by dealers. In some instances I believe that this dipping will significantly improve the coins.

Let’s look at an example of each of these three categories and briefly discuss the impact of how they were stored.

Hands down, my favorite group of coins in the sale was a date run of Large Size Bust Quarters, struck from 1796 to 1828. Viewed as a type, these are among the most difficult silver designs to find in high grades. The Newman collection had a number of Gems; far more than I can recall having ever seen in one place — even more than Eliasberg or Norweb.

Possibly my favorite early quarter, from a technical standpoint, was Lot 33334, an 1807 graded MS66* by NGC.

Close examination of this coin revealed nearly flawless surfaces with wonderful luster and no signs of hairlines or past attempts of “improvement.” I don’t know what this coin looked like 75 years ago, when it was probably lightly toned or even white,  but the color it has acquired from storage was simply breathtaking. This coin, along with a number of the Bust Quarters and Bust Half Dollars in the collection, had been placed in old Wayte Raymond albums. These contain paper with high sulfur content and this tends to impart superb color with rainbow hues in instantly-recognizable concentric patterns.

The next classification of coin is one that wasn’t as nice as category #1 but which was beautifully toned from storage in a Wayte Raymond or another high sulfur source.

Lot 33321 was an 1840 With Drapery dime graded MS64* by NGC. In my opinion, this looked like a coin which had been cleaned many years ago and there were a decent number of hairlines on the surfaces. However, these were easy to overlook on account of the superb color shown on the obverse and reverse. I counted a number of coins in the sale which were clearly given a significant bump in grade due to exceptional second-generation color.

The third and final category are coins whose actual appearance is difficult to determine due to storage issues; probably in old 2x2 brown paper envelopes which imparted a lot of toning but not in the spectacular manner as seen on the two coins displayed above.

On his inexpensive coins, Mr. Newman clearly placed less of a premium on careful long-term storage. This is clearly easy to understand given that some of these cost of just a few dollars when they were purchased. An example of this is Lot 33883, an 1875-S Trade Dollar graded MS62 by NGC. It is hard to say what this coin looked like when it was first placed in the brown envelope it had been stored in for decades. Today, it was very deeply toned with somewhat impaired luster as a result.

Will this coin look better if it is dipped? Possibly yes, possibly no. One of the interesting things in this sale is trying to imagine what the category 3 coins look like without 75+ years of dirt, grime, and monochrome color.

The dealers who are best at determining which coins will dip well will be fascinated by this sale, and I have no doubt that they will be active participants. As I said above, this is not necessarily a bad thing. No one is going to dip a coin like the amazing multi-hued 1807 quarter shown above. And I doubt that any of the category 2 coins will be dipped either; nor should they. Ah, but the category 3 coins…here is an interesting subtext to the Newman Sale!

If you need representation at this sale, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.

The Carson City Double Eagle Market: An Analysis

It’s been a while since I’ve done an in-depth article on any Carson City gold coins and, as they are the most popular issues from this mint, I thought this would be a good time to write about the double eagles from Carson City. Before we get into date-by-date mode, let’s look at some big picture issues which concern collectors of these coins.

1. Popularity levels have clearly risen. CC double eagles have always been popular with collectors. But they have become an investor favorite as well. I am aware of at least three large marketing firms who are selling CC double eagles and not just mundane common dates in VF and EF. This has pushed interest up for all dates in virtually all grades.

2. Prices have risen.Without a statistical study, I can say intuitively that prices for most CC double eagles have risen between 10 and 50% in the last five years. I used to be able to buy quantities of nice EF coins for less than $2,000; today, these same coins cost me closer to $3,000. This seems to be even more so with higher grades coins. As an example, an MS61 1875-CC was a $7,500 coin around five years ago and not always an easy sale at that level. Today, I get $12,000 or more for one and they disappear as soon as I list them on my website.

3. Fewer coins seem available. My intuition tells me this is true based on what I am able to buy. At a typical big show five years ago I would return with anywhere from five to ten nice CC double eagles. I’d see them in dealer’s cases and I’d see them offered not only by the usual suspects but by smaller mom-n-pop dealers. This is clearly not the case in 2013 and I might come back from a show like Long Beach with no more than one or two CC double eagles in my newps.

4. CAC has had an impact. At first, CAC approved examples of CC double eagles didn’t seem to have a big impact on the market. This has changed and even common dates in EF sell for a premium. The coins with potentially big CAC impact are the rare dates which don’t typically come nice. As an example, I have seen virtually no AU50 examples of the 1870-CC which I thought were choice original coins. Currently, CAC has never approved an 1870-CC in grades above EF40 (and just two at that level). If an average quality 1870-CC in AU50 is worth, say, $325,000 what is one worth with CAC sticker? $350,000? $375,000? Maybe even $400,000?

Let's now take a quick look at each date and see what's happening on a coin-by-coin basis.

1870-CC:

Between 2005 and 2010, there were two or three examples of this date per year appearing at auction. This has slowed done considerably and in the last three years, only one non-no grade 1870-CC has sold at auction. This doesn’t mean this date has stopped selling; I know of a Nevada-based specialist dealer who owned multiple examples of the 1870-CC at one time and I believe he has sold them all via private treaty in the last year. This date cratered at around $200,000-225,000 for a typical quality EF coin a few years ago and prices have risen, slowly but surely. To own a decent 1870-CC today, you are going to have to write a check for at least $250,000 to $275,000. There are two above average examples in the Heritage 2014 FUN sale and it will be interesting to see what these bring.

1871-CC:

For most collectors, this date remains the single most expensive coin in their set, given that they won’t purchase an 1870-CC. I recently sold an NGC AU55 for well over $50,000 which is a record for me. Demand for the 1871-CC continues to increase and a choice PCGS EF45 could bring over $30,000 if available.

1872-CC:

The pattern of availability for this date has changed over the last few years. It used to be an issue that I handled regularly in EF45 and these sold well for me. Today, these same coins now grade AU50 or even AU53 and seem more available than before. Properly graded AU55 to AU58 1872-CC double eagles remain rare to very rare and other than the fantastic Battle Born coin, no Mint State pieces have been sold in some time.

1873-CC:

The finest known 1873-CC, variously graded MS62 and MS63, sold five different times between 2004 and 2008. Since then, not much in the way of exciting high grade 1873-CC double eagles have sold but Stacks Bowers 1/13: 13337, graded MS61 by NGC, brought a record-breaking $55,813 earlier this year. Prices for this date in all grades have risen as well.

1874-CC:

I was recently offered an NGC MS60 example of this date for $20,000 and, gulp!, I almost pulled the trigger. After years of being undervalued, the 1874-CC is a sleeper no more an even nice AU58’s are selling at close to the $10,000 mark. This brings us to a quick rhetorical question: is it is possible for there to be a sleeper in an extremely popular series such as Carson City Liberty Head double eagles? My take…yes there is but only a very few and only in the specific instance where the holder means nothing. In other words, population figures for AU58 1874-CC double eagles would suggest it isn’t rare. But real world experience shows that properly graded CAC-caliber examples are in fact very scarce if not actually rare.

1875-CC:

I mentioned in the beginning of this article how MS61 1875-CC double eagles have soared in price in the last few years. This is true with examples of this date in AU grades as well. I think nice 1875-CC double eagles will remain popular and in demand due to this issue being the only quasi-affordable Type Two issue from this mint.

1876-CC:

It’s been at least two years since I’ve handled an 1876-CC $20 in a grade higher than MS60 and this is surprising as nice MS61 and MS62 pieces used to be around. This, to me, is another good indication that CC double eagles are truly a collector-oriented series. The nice coins seem to be going off the market into long-term holdings unlike in the past when they would be held for a year or two and then flopped.

1877-CC:

The comments I made for the 1872-CC (see above) are pretty much the same for the 1877-CC. AU50s and AU53s seem a touch more available than in the past but that is primarily the result of gradeflation. The Battle Born: 11046 coin, graded MS62 by PCGS, is the only Uncirculated 1877-CC to come on the market for at least two years and I have handled just one Uncirculated piece myself (a PCGS MS61) in this time frame. Just as an FYI, if you can find a nice EF example for anywhere near $4,000, I think this is still a great value.

1878-CC:

This was a date that was always appreciated by collectors due to its small mintage but the lack of decent examples in the last few years is, to me, a tribute of the 1878-CC’s true scarcity. I like the value that this date offers in EF grades (still less than $10,000) assuming that you can a) actually find one and b) it isn’t dreadful.

1879-CC:

Ditto. Here’s another date which has seen almost no nice pieces sold since Battle Born: 11048. I have privately placed an AU58 and an MS60 and for both coins I had to pay what I believe were record prices.

1882-CC:

I’ve never been a huge fan of this date, so what I have to say might show an anti-1882CC bias. But I have noticed a pretty healthy supply of examples this year, including a few decent to choice Uncirculated pieces. I still think the 1882-CC is fairly valued in AU50 to AU55 grades (especially if the coin is CAC quality) but I’m going to officially go on record and state that Mint State 1882-CC double eagles are spendy. I still can’t get over the fact that the PCGS MS63 in Battle Born brought over $80,000.

1883-CC:

If I were assembling a CC double eagle set for friends or family, I’d look at a PQ AU58 with CAC approval at around $7,000 or a touch more. That seems like better value, to me, than a so-so MS60 or MS61 at $12,000-14,000.

1884-CC:

Along with the 1883-CC, this is one of my favorite CC dates for type purposes. It tends to come well made and if you can find an example with original color and surfaces, the visual appeal for this issue tends to be better than average. Uncirculated 1884-CC double eagles are no longer affordable for most collectors as a nice MS61 will cost you around $12,500 and if you can find an MS62 you are looking at $20,000 or more.

1885-CC:

When I first started making a market in CC double eagles, this date seemed to be more of a “key” than it does now. Not to cast aspersions on the 1885-CC and its friends and family but this date just doesn’t feel like a rarity anymore. Sure, it’s a better date in the series but it seems more plentiful than it was back in the day. One quick observation: this date used to be priced in tandem with the 1878-CC and 1879-CC in higher grades but it now lags both of these issues. The last nice coin to sell, ex Stacks Bowers 4/13: 1401 and graded PCGS MS61, at $35,278, actually seems like a good value to me within the context of this series.

1889-CC:

I just sold a nice PCGS AU58 example for over $8,000 to a savvy wholesaler and this was sort of a “gulp!” moment for me. I looked at my old records and saw that I was selling the same date in this grade for around $5,000 around three years ago. The gulp wasn’t so much that I thought these were now overvalued at $8,000; I leave that to the market to decide. The gulp was more that I wistfully thought “why didn’t I just put four or five of these away for a few years and sell into a market I knew was going to be strong.” Sigh…

1890-CC:

I’m now pretty certain that this is the most available date in the series in lower grades. I still see 1890-CC double eagles coming out of Europe and even some pretty decent EF45 to AU55 examples from these sources. This is one of the few CC double eagles that are still comparably affordable in AU58. I have sold a few nice examples in the last couple of months for around $6,000. Not cheap but not as pricey as some of the other common dates in this series.

1891-CC:

This date has proven itself to be scarcer than the 1885-CC and it seems far less available in the current strong CC double eagle market. No Uncirculated examples have sold at auction since the nice MS62 in Battle Born (it sold for a reasonable $48,875) and I don’t think I’ve handled more than two or three nice AU’s this year. Presentable AU’s at less than $20,000 seem like good value to me in the context of this market.

1892-CC:

Let’s say you bought a nice PCGS MS62 1892-CC in 2008. You probably paid around $16,000-18,000 for it. Fast forward to today. You send your coin to CAC and since it was nice for the grade, it is approved. If you go to sell the coin, the chances are good you’ll get around $25,000 for it and possibly more if someone like me thinks it has a chance to upgrade to MS63. Not a terrible return, especially given the fact that many non-CC Type Three double eagles have had spotty price performance during this five year period.

1893-CC:

The rumor about this date used to be that there was a bag of them and someone was quietly selling them two or three at a time. True? I doubt it but there were certainly a lot of similar looking Uncirculated 1893-CC double eagles on the market a few years back. There are still some nice coins around but they tend to have a bleached-out look as they have been processed to remove the deep peripheral color you used to find on this date.

Do you collect Carson City double eagles? If so, I would be pleased to help you assemble a great set. Feel free to contact Doug Winter by email at dwn@ont.com.

What Can CAC Population Figures Tell Collectors About Quality and Rarity?

Now that CAC has become an integral part of the rare date gold market, there are certain things that their database of coins that have been approved can tell collectors. This wasn’t necessarily true as recently as a year to a year and a half ago, but I believe that enough coins have been seen by CAC that their numbers have gained a degree of legitimacy. This is especially true for expensive and/or truly rare coins.

One thing that CAC data can tell a savvy collector is how rare a coin is with good eye appeal. In other words, if the combined PCGS/NGC population of a certain date/mintmark is 15 coins in EF, how many of these are choice and original?

How do these figures look in a series which is notorious for having numerous condition rarities? I decided to analyze the increasingly popular Liberty Head eagle series using CAC population data from their most recent report (September 2013) and compare it to research which I published a few years ago.

In 2008 I published an article entitled The Ten Rarest Ten Libs. I based this research on my 25+ years of specializing in this denomination, consulting auction records from the past two decades, and looking at current PCGS and NGC population data. My Top Ten list was concerned more with absolute rarity (i.e., the total number of coins known in all grades) versus condition rarity (the number of coins known in higher grades).

 According to my research, here are the ten rarest Liberty Head eagles:

1. 1875

2. 1864-S

3. 1873

4. 1863

5. 1865-S Normal Date

6. 1860-S

7. 1883-O

8. 1844

9. 1839, Head of 1840

10. (tie) 1858, 1859-S, 1864, 1866-S With Motto, 1876, 1877

Looking back on this list five years later (!), I basically still agree with it - except for one glaring omission: the 1855-S. I’m not sure why I didn’t include this date in my Top Ten; I very possibly might have forgotten it. Today, I would certainly include it and place it as high as #8 on the list. I would also eliminate the 1858 from the #10 grouping, and quite possibly the 1859-S and 1864 as well.

Before I delve into the CAC populations, there are a few caveats which I think are important to better understand this blog.

Firstly, we are assuming that at this point in time a good number of rare date gold coins get sent to CAC. However, I happen to know at least four major collections of Liberty Head eagles which have never been seen by CAC, and which contain many coins currently “unbeaned” by CAC which should be nice enough to qualify if and when they are sent in.

Secondly, we are making an assumption that “CAC quality” coins really are nice for the date and grade. I personally don’t think that is a stretch, but I clearly have seen some better date Liberty Head eagles with CAC stickers that weren’t all that nice and, conversely, have sent some coins to CAC which I thought were very nice and, for whatever reason(s), didn’t get blessed.

Thirdly, I think making assumptions about the rarity of coins like Liberty Head eagles based solely on CAC data would be a mistake. Instead, I would view the CAC data as a component of determining high grade rarity.

Let’s look at the Liberty Head eagles which, as of October 2013, have yet to see a single example approved by CAC:

• 1844

• 1863

• 1864

• 1865

• 1865-S Normal Date

• 1866

• 1866-S No Motto and 1866-S With Motto

• 1872

• 1873

• 1875

• 1876-S

There are no huge surprises here. This group of 12 coins is well represented on my Top Ten rarest list. The 1864 is a bit of surprise as I have handled a few nice pieces in the last few years and the same is true with the 1866-P and the 1866-S No Motto.

Now, how about the dates in this series with only 1 coin approved by CAC. Along with the dates, I’m going to list the grade of the sole CAC-approved coin.

• 1839 Head of 1840 (EF40)

• 1858-S (AU50)

• 1859-S (AU50)

• 1867-S (AU55)

• 1870-CC (EF45)

• 1877 (AU55)

This is an interesting group. All five are rare, and at least one (the 1839 Head of 1840) is on the Top Ten rarest list. The other four are dates which are a bit more available but which seldom come with nice surfaces and natural color; two elements which are rewarded by CAC. In this instance, the CAC results hold pretty true to form; more so than what I expect from NGC or PCGS results.

As a final list, let’s look at the dates in this series with just 2 coins approved by CAC. Again, along with the dates I’m going to list the grades in which CAC has approved these.

• 1855-S (EF45, AU55)

• 1859-O (EF45, AU53)

• 1860-S (VG8, AU55)

• 1862-S (EF45, AU55)

• 1864-S (VF30, EF45)

• 1870 (AU50, AU55)

• 1871 (AU55, AU58)

• 1876  (AU53, AU55)

• 1895-S (EF45, AU53)

To me, this is the most interesting list, for two reasons. The first is the dates (1859-O, 1862-S, 1864-S) which I didn’t expect to see two of, let alone one. The second is the presence of the 1895-S, a date which gets little respect from even the most ardent specialist and which only two reasonably low grade pieces have been approved by CAC to date. Sleeper alert!!

I’m going to revisit this topic in the near future, as I think it is a good way of determining the true rarity of certain coins in high-end “PQ” grades. By the same token, it also has relevance for lower grade coins like VF and EF when it comes to determining how nice a really rare coin is for its respective grade.

For more information on CAC and on Liberty Head eagles—with or without CAC approval—please feel free to contact me by email at dwn@ont.com.

What Killed the New Orleans Quarter Eagle Market?

If you had asked me a decade ago which series of New Orleans gold coin had the most upside potential I would have replied, “quarter eagles.” This was a series which has everything going for it. It is short-lived (a total of 14 issues were struck from 1839 through 1857), affordable (at the present time, nearly every issue can be found in nice AU grades for less than $3,000), interesting from a historic and numismatic perspective, and much easier to complete than the half eagle, eagle, and double eagle series from this mint.

A decade ago, interest was soaring in the New Orleans quarter eagle series and prices appeared to be rising as well. But something went terribly wrong and this series, in many cases, is worth less than it was ten years ago; at the same time when many other New Orleans gold coins have shown excellent price appreciation. What killed the New Orleans quarter eagle market?

To answer this question, I am going to look at some theories of mine. I am also going to randomly choose four different issues in four different grades and compare prices from a decade ago to today.

1. Grading Standards Were Not Upheld by Both Services

A decade ago, standards for New Orleans quarter eagles were fairly tight. As an example, if you were offered an AU55 1852-O quarter eagle in 2003, the chances were good that this was a decent to choice coin with some luster present. Today, many of the 1851-O quarter eagles that I see in AU55 holders are, in my opinion, not much better than EF45 in terms of sharpness and overall quality. While this inflating of grades has occurred in many dated gold series, for some reason it has always seemed more obvious in the New Orleans quarter eagle series. Coupled with the fact that certain New Orleans quarter eagles have strike and manufacturing problems, this gradeflating has made the series fairly unappealing to new collectors and purists alike.

2. Populations Are Hugely Inflated

I don’t have immediate access to population figures from 2003, but it seems to me that both NGC and PCGS have hugely inflated numbers for coins like the 1851-O in AU55 that I mentioned above. A quick look at this month’s online figures show that PCGS has graded 20 in this grade while NGC has graded 102. I can live with the PCGS figure, although I think the actual number of accurately graded coins in this grade is fewer than ten. But the NGC figure of 102? Not only is this grossly inflated, it gives the impression that an AU55 1851-0 quarter eagle is a relatively common coin. Interestingly, CAC has only approved three AU55 examples of this date. One would think that a coin with an NGC/PCGS population of 122 coins would have more than three approved by CAC…unless not many of these “122” coins are CAC quality.

3. Small Coins Lose Popularity

Clearly, small coins like gold dollars and quarter eagles have lost some popularity in the last decade as collectors get older and little coins grow harder and harder to see. Just as New Orleans double eagles have taken on an unprecedented degree of popularity in the last decade, small coins like New Orleans quarter eagles (and gold dollars) have ebbed in demand. Not that this is not true across the board: popularity levels for Dahlonega small-sized coins are at an all-time high, and Charlotte gold is becoming more popular after years of neglect. But in the New Orleans arena, it is clear that the focus is on big coins and small coins, at least for now, are the losers.

4. Quarter Eagles Never Had a Promotion

You can make a strong case that the New Orleans double eagle market got jump-started by a promotion a decade+ ago and has since become a fully functioning, collector-based market. The New Orleans eagle market has been promoted to the extent of the double eagle market but it has found a solid collector base. The same can be said, although to a lesser extent, for the half eagles from this mint. This just hasn’t been the case for the quarter eagles. No one has gone out and bought 50 or 100 nice AU to Mint State quarter eagles, written a compelling script and sold them on TV (don’t snicker; it could and probably should be done…) This lack of promotion, combined with a general market malaise towards quarter eagles has made this the softest single series of gold coins from this mint (with the exception of two dates which we will discuss later in this article).

Now that I’ve dispensed with my theories, let’s take a look at some specific dates/grades in this series and see how they have performed in the last decade. Be aware that the sample size I am using is very small, but the prices are based on average quality coins trading at public auction; all are coins which I have viewed in person.

 1840-O Quarter Eagle, AU55

The 1840-O has some degree of numismatic significance as it is the first Liberty Head issue from this mint. It is relatively scarce in AU55 and this is a popular grade as this date becomes very expensive in Uncirculated.

• NGC AU55: $2,070; Heritage 2/11: 4377

• PCGS AU55: $2,760; Heritage 1/10: 3818

• NGC AU55: $2,588; Heritage 3/04: 6093

• PCGS AU55: $2,875; Heritage 11/03: 7143

The price performance of this date in AU55 has been mediocre at best. An NGC coin is probably not an easy sale at just a touch over $2,000, and part of this has to do with the current population of 20 in this grade with a whopping 41 finer. A PCGS coin at $2,500 would probably be an easier coin to sell as the population in this grade is just eight (with 18 finer). It is interesting to note that CAC has approved just one in AU55, and my guess is that a choice, original piece with a CAC sticker might be worth as much as $2,750-3,000, regardless of whether it was graded by NGC or PCGS.

1843-O Small Date Quarter Eagle, MS62

The 1843-O Small Date is the most common New Orleans quarter eagle, and the second most available in Uncirculated. In MS62, it is fairly scarce and I have always felt it was undervalued. What makes this coin interesting, to me at least, is that it is the only affordable O mint quarter eagle from the 1840’s in MS62, and I’ve always felt that this should expand its desirability beyond specialists.

• NGC MS62: $2,585; Heritage 4/13: 5494

• PCGS MS62: $2,291 and $2,585; Heritage 6/13: 2585, and Heritage 10/12: 5546

• NGC MS62: $2,185; Heritage 1/03: 4667

• PCGS MS62: $2,530; Heritage 1/03: 8447

These auction prices are a bit misleading as they don’t show that for a few years between 2006 and 2009, a nice MS62 example of this variety was worth in the $3,000-3,250 range. Prices have stayed flat over the past decade and I don’t attribute this to gradeflation as the PCGS population has stayed at a reasonably low 14 coins in MS62, while NGC has graded 26. I’ve owned most of the PCGS MS62’s and the quality is usually pretty presentable; certainly nice enough to be appealing to a non-specialist who wants a cool, higher quality branch mint quarter eagle from the 1840’s for not a lot of money. I’m kind of at a loss as to why this isn’t a $3,500-4,000+ coin.

1852-O Quarter Eagle, EF45

To avoid being pegged as an elitist, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at prices for an inexpensive yet reasonably interesting coin like an 1852-O quarter eagle in EF45. This is one of the more common quarter eagles from this mint in a lower than normal grade, but at less than $1,000 it provides a good amount of bang for the buck.

• NGC EF45: $446; Heritage 3/12: 8726

• PCGS EF45: $403; Goldberg 2/12: 1202

• NGC EF45: $604; Heritage 7/04: 8026

• PCGS EF45: $633; Heritage 11/03: 7196

I’m not totally surprised by this price drop over the last decade. Even though gold has increased from a range of $363-409 in 2003-2004 to four times this amount today, many gold coins like an EF45 1852-O quarter eagle have performed poorly. It all boils down to supply and demand, and there are a lot more 1852-O quarter eagles in EF45 than there are collectors who wants one; even at the bargain price of $425.

1857-O Quarter Eagle, MS62

As our final example, let’s look at a coin that I think perfectly defines the term “condition rarity.” The 1857-O is the final year of issue for New Orleans quarter eagles. A total of 34,000 were struck and survivors are pretty common in circulated grades. But in Uncirculated, the 1857-O is very scarce with just two dozen or so known; mostly in the MS60 to MS61 range. I believe that there are around six to eight properly graded MS62 to MS63 coins accounted for; PCGS has graded 14(!) in MS62 with four finer while NGC has graded seven in MS62 with nine (!) finer. CAC has approved four coins in MS62, suggesting that the typical quality of at least some of these higher grade 1857-O quarter eagles is above-average.

• NGC MS62: $6,038; Heritage 10/11: 4702

• NGC MS62: $8,338; Heritage 2004 ANA: 7152

The population of this date in MS62 was much lower than its current 21 coins, which makes the 1857-O appear to be a somewhat available date in this grade. I would strongly disagree with this statement, however, as in my experience a properly graded MS62 1857-O quarter eagle is very rare and collectors are being misled by the combined NGC/PCGS figures.

I’ve stated throughout this article that the New Orleans quarter eagle market is “dead.” This isn’t wholly true as there are two issues, the 1839-O and the 1845-O, which have increased in popularity and, I would presume, price. Why is this?

The 1839-O is a first-year-of-issue and a one year type so it has multiple levels of demand. This is clearly why other Classic Head coins like the 1838-C half eagle and the 1838-D half eagle have soared in value in recent years.

The 1845-O is a key issue with a low mintage figure of 4,000. It used to be very undervalued but it has become popular in recent years and it now has demand outside of the specialist community; primarily among collectors who like coins that are “cool.”

Let’s quickly look at price levels on these dates for now and around seven-eight years ago.

1839-O Quarter Eagle, AU55

• NGC AU55: $5,581; Heritage 4/13: 5480

• PCGS AU55: $5,581; Heritage 9/12: 4775

• NGC AU55: $2,530; Heritage 5/05: 8427

• PCGS AU55: $4,370; Heritage 91/05: 8767

I think the price increase for this date in AU55 is actually even more dramatic as a CAC/PCGS AU55 would actually sell for $6,500-7,000 today, and a coin of this quality would have only been worth around $3,000-3,500 in 2004-2005. And the increases in price for this date are even more dramatic in AU58 and the lower Uncirculated grades.

1845-O Quarter Eagle, AU50

• NGC AU50: $6,325; Heritage 4/11: 6317

• NGC AU50: $4,025; Heritage 7/03: 10126

Again, this is a coin whose limited auction records for AU50 examples in the time period which we are exploring is misleading. The 1845-O has shown good price appreciation in grades from VF to AU58 and I believe it will continue to do so as a result of its multiple levels of demand.

And what’s the fate for the typical run-of-the-mill New Orleans quarter eagle? It’s probably not a rosy future. I don’t see collectors caring much about coins like 1851-O quarter eagles in AU55, or 1854-O quarter eagles in AU58. Unless there is a sudden influx of collectors wanting to do complete sets, the price appreciation for this series is likely to be limited to those coins with multiple levels of demand, Finest Known, or high Condition Census examples of not-so-interesting dates or specific individual coins with great eye appeal.

If you’d like to learn more about New Orleans quarter eagles or rare gold coins in general, please contact me at dwn@ont.com.