Some FUN-based Market Observations

The FUN show is clearly one of the two major market indicators. Symbolically, it is the beginning of a New Coin Year but it is, most of all, a huge economic event with hundreds of millions of dollars changing hands. For me, a good FUN show is a clear indicator that the first quarter—if not half—of the coin year will be strong.

This was one of the strangest FUN shows I can recall. I was constantly busy and there were people at my table from the beginning of dealer set-up on Wednesday until I was packing up to go home on Friday afternoon. It was one of the easiest selling shows I can ever recall having, and my wholesale numbers were well above average. But it was also a hugely difficult show at which to buy. If, like me, you were a dealer who buys choice, cool, rare coins there were slim pickings at best. I was able to buy a number of great coins (some of which are now posted on my website; others never made it back from Orlando) but I knew as early as Thursday morning that I was going to fall well short of my numeric goals in terms of coins bought.

Clearly, one of the facts of life about major coin shows (FUN and ANA in particular) is that the huge auctions that surround them have a profound and significant impact. I talked to numerous well-heeled collectors who roamed the floor but stated that they were “waiting until after the auction” to make purchasing decisions. Considering that the major segment of the auction was Thursday night, this left a short window of opportunity for them to buy coins.

Heritage should be credited for producing one of the all-time great FUN auctions, and although I don’t know exactly what their final numbers were, I am assuming the FUN sale set an all-time record, given that Platinum Night alone did north of $50 million dollars.

I spent a lot of money at the Heritage auction(s) but didn’t buy a lot of coins; at least not in terms of useful, “bread and butter” coins that I could turn around and immediately place into inventory. Some of the dates that I will always try to purchase were represented by coins I just didn’t like, while other areas of the market seem to have quickly jumped to new levels with which I’m not yet comfortable.

Some observations from the auction are in order:

1. Rarity is clearly in vogue right now and even off-quality examples of truly rare issues are commanding huge premiums. As an example, an NGC EF45 1864-S brought just a shade under $100,000. And other seldom-seen eagles such as the 1863, 1873, and 1876 brought what I thought were enormous prices based on their actual quality.
2. There were a number of really exceptional coins in the auction and they brought exceptional prices, as they should have. My two personal favorites were David Akers’ personal 1826 half eagle graded MS66 by PCGS which brought $763,750 (a price which I thought was strong but not at all outrageous), and the Eliasberg Proof 1889 double eagle, graded PR65 by PCGS but in an old green holder and looking more like a PR67 Deep Cameo by today’s standards, which sold for an extremely strong $352,500.
3. Speaking of exceptional, the market for Liberty Head double eagles continues to rage on. The FUN sale had a deep offering with coins ranging from off-quality and very choice for the grade and issue. But it almost didn’t matter what the coin looked like as prices were strong across the board. Type One O mints? Very strong. CC’s? Very strong, although the nice PCGS AU50 1870-CC at $329,000 seemed like a much better value than the really unappealing PCGS EF45 at $282,000. Civil War dates? Crazy strong including a record-for-the-grade prices on the 1861-S in PCGS MS62, the 1863 in PCGS AU58, and the PCGS MS62 1864. I was taken aback by prices for the Big Five late date Type Three issues. An 1881 in PCGS AU58 sold for $111,625, an 1882 in NGC AU58 realized $94,000 and perhaps most incredibly, a tooled no grade 1886—the ultimate “what a shame” coin—brought a staggering $129,250. No grades in general did very well in this sale, by the way, but that’s another story.
4. The best values in the 19^th century series are clearly in the Liberty Head half eagle series. Prices on double eagles have made this series the playground of the 1%, and the eagle series has gone from neglected to flavor of the year (smart buys still can be made in this series but proceed with caution!). Even though there were some price records set in the FUN sale for finally-recognized date rarities such as the 1863 and 1865, there are still many dates in the $2,500-15,000 range which seem very fairly priced relative to their rarity. Given the great prices that schlocky rare date coins brought in the auction, I’d like to think that DWN-quality examples are even better values.

A few other non-auction observations, based on looking at dealer’s inventories: nice quality early gold is still in very short supply, Dahlonega gold is literally nowhere to be seen (I’m embarrassed to admit this but I came home with exactly two new D mint coins…two! From the FUN show!!! How is this possible?!?), CAC premiums are really noticeable - especially from sellers who don’t typically handle nice coins, and if I had listened to myself and bought Civil War gold coins when I predicted they’d be the Next Big Thing I’d have made myself a tidy little profit.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world's leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The 1863 Eagle: An Unheralded Rarity

One of my favorite American coins is the 1863 eagle. I had a lovely NGC EF45 pass through my hands recently and it inspired me to write a blog about what I think is one of the absolute rarest Liberty Head eagles. Production of this issue was limited to a scant 1,218 business strikes, and I rate the 1863 as the third rarest Liberty Head eagle after the 1875 and the 1864-S. There are probably fewer than 30 known in all grades, with most in the EF40 to AU50 range. There are very likely as few as six or seven known in AU grades and two in Uncirculated; more about these a little further down the page.

A quick search of auction records shows that no problem-free 1863 eagles have sold since October 2010, and only seven records exist for problem-free coins in the last decade. My records show that I have handled exactly two pieces in the last five years: an NGC EF45 and a PCGS AU53.

When available, the 1863 tends to be bright from having been cleaned or dipped and it is invariably very heavily abraded. This piece shown above is one of the very few circulated pieces that I have seen with natural color. There are a few small abrasions on the surfaces, but they are much cleaner than usual.

There are two high-grade 1863 eagles known. The finest is the Bass IV: 683 coin which sold for $52,900 in 2000; a price which, at the time, I thought represented possibly the single biggest bargain all of the three Bass sales which featured gold coins. Bass had, through an agent, bought this exact coin in August 1991 for $104,500. Harry didn't lose money on many coins but he got spanked — and good — on this one; all the more remarkable considering that it is the finest known example of a truly rare issue and it is exceptional for the grade. Today, it would bring considerably more than in either of its previous auction appearances.

The other Uncirculated 1863 eagle is an MS62 that was found as part of the S.S. Republic treasure. I have never personally seen this coin, but it is in the collection of a western specialist along with many other finest known or Condition Census pieces from this shipwreck.

Civil War gold coins have been very popular in recent years as a result of the sesquicentennial of the war plus promotions/popularization by dealers such as myself. While it is not well-known outside of the specialist community, it is my belief that there are currently many collectors who would appreciate a nice 1863 eagle in their holdings.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world's leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Factors That Influence Coin Prices: The Not-So-Obvious

Coin prices are impacted by a number of factors. The most obvious of these are supply and demand. Simply put, if a coin has a greater degree of demand than available supply, the price is going to be strong. But what are some of the not-as-obvious factors that impact coin prices? Here are some observations. 1. Quality of Demand. There are different levels of demand for any rare coin. There's "I'm sort of kicking tires and I'm wondering if you might have the following D Mint quarter eagle," and there's "I've been looking for a nice 1840-D quarter eagle for five years, its the last coin I need to finish my set and I have to have it!" The latter is, obviously, a higher quality of demand and this buyer would be willing to pay a significantly higher price than the lukewarm, casual buyer.

While this example is deliberately extreme in its contrast, there are clearly different levels of demand that impact coin prices. Another factor is venue.

I am very interested in marketing and branding and one of the things that interests me is creating demand for new products. Brands now do "mash ups" where a hot young designer of furniture, as an example, designs a limited edition sneaker design for Adidas or Nike. Only 500 might be released and collectors will pay a significant premium for this because of its perceived scarcity. And, it might be offered only at a "pop up" venue where you have to wait for an hour to just see the sneakers and where's there is no time to sit and ponder if you will or won't make the purchase. You are pre-sold and you represent a high quality of demand.

I see this sort of collector behavior for coins at auction. The major firms do a great job of creating an environment that fosters competition and turns a coin purchase into blood sport. As an example, how many times have you, as a bidder, placed an on-line bid and received an outbid notice only to say "I know I shouldn't this but I'll be damned if I'm going to let myself get outbid on this D Mint quarter eagle?" At a live auction, it is even easier to lose control when bidding (which is why I suggest hiring an agent, but that's another story...) and I can recall numerous incidents when bidding has turned into a ego-fest between collectors or dealers.

2. Promotions. A decade ago, when large-scale telemarketers seemingly controlled the coin market, having information about the next coin or series that was going to be promoted could make or break a wholesale dealer. As an example, I can remember at least a few times that Commemorative Gold coins were about to be pushed, and quietly buying coins at pre-promotional levels so that I could sell into a potential rising market.

This isn't the case so much in the 2012 coin market due to the Democratization of Information as a result of widespread web access. But rare coins are still being promoted and this can be a subtle factor in price increases.

In December 2010 I wrote a blog entitled "Which Civil War Gold Coins Will Be Promoted in 2011," which represented my unbiased opinion(s) that the upcoming 150th anniversary of the beginning of the Civil War was a good opportunity for someone to promote Civil War gold coins. It seems that at least a few people read this blog, as I know of two marketers who, perhaps as a result of my suggestion, began promoting the exact coins I suggested in the article. Plus, said article inspired me to become a more active buyer of high end Civil War gold coinage and to write a major four part series in 2012 about collecting these coins:

Part I Part II Part III Part IV

3. Registry Set Collecting: In many series of coins, the passion of Registry Set collectors results in amazing prices for the right coin(s). This hasn't impacted 18th and 19th century gold coins all that much as there is little Registry Set collecting for early gold and Liberty Head issues (although I wouldn't be surprised if we begin to see serious registry collecting in popular areas like CC double eagles or Dahlonega half eagles in the very near future).

The areas in the better gold coin market that seem most likely to be impacted by Registry Set collecting in the immediate future are 20th century issues. I find it very surprising that dealers or marketers who specialize in series like $2.50 Indians haven't seriously promoted the Registry as a way to impact the demand on rarer dates in high grades. For a while, there were a small but dedicated number of Registry Sets in the St. Gaudens double eagle series that were highly competitive and which greatly influenced the prices of high grade better date PCGS encapsulated Saints. My guess is that this will happen again in the not-so-distant future.

4. Pushing Hot Buttons. Most collectors of high(er) dollar coins are Baby Boomers. And I believe that a major part of the strong, strong market in key date American coins in the past decade has been the ability of these coins to push the hot buttons of buyers. Let me explain:

Just the other day, I got back a coin from PCGS that hit my nostalgia button as hard as any has in some time. It was a perfect, even-brown VF30 1877 Cent. When I was a wee lad, I collected Indian Cents and the 1877 was a mythical rarity that I could only dream of owning. Today, this is a coin that I can easily afford and the $1,500-1,750 that this coin would cost me, as a collector, would exorcize some of the oh-why-can't -I-fill-that-1877-hole frisson that haunted me when I was eight or nine.

There are, of course, other hittable hot buttons for gold collectors as well. Cool design? That's an affirmative, High Relief double eagle. Great background story? Hello, Carson City double eagle! The "neatness" factor of owning an 18th century issue? That would be you, 1799 eagle.

5. Historical Significance. As numismatics becomes less about investors and more about collectors, I am finding the historic significance of certain issues are becoming more available because of their historic significance. This includes a number of factors, a few of which include the following:

-Background Story: I don't think its a coincidence that coins like 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles or 1861-O double eagles have become much more in demand due to their fantastic background stories. -Provenance: This may not be the case for all collectors but for some of us (and you know who you are...) the allure of an Eliasberg or Norweb pedigree is a definite factor that influences the price that we pay for a neat coin. -"The Look:" As the internet has (re)proven, numismatics is very visual. Coins that have a great appearance (such as wonderful deep coloration or lots of dirt clinging to the recessed areas) are pieces that a certain type of collector will pay a premium for.

There are other not-so-obvious factors that influence what collectors will pay for a coin. What are some of the ones that went undiscussed in this blog that impact you?

Pricing "Difficult" Coins: A Real World Model

I have written a number of blogs in the past few years about how I price rare coins. Despite this, I still get many questions from new and experienced collectors about pricing. I'd like to share a specific coin that I recently handled and explain how I came up with buy/sell prices. As I have written, I find many of the published price guides to be of little or no use when it comes to complex, infrequently traded coins. When I make decisions at shows, in my office, or in the auction room on what to pay for a coin, I tend to put a lot more credence in auction records. So, if you'd like to play at home, I suggest that you follow along with the PCGS auction archives on pcgs.com as this is a major source of information for me when I make pricing decisions. Here is a "real world" model and the thought process(es) that went along with my pricing decision.

1863 Half Eagle, Graded MS60 by NGC and CAC approved

This is a coin I handled earlier this year and it is one of the first pieces in a while that, as soon as I saw it, I said "I have to own this." Before I discuss my thoughts about how to price it, let me discuss a little about the issue and about the coin itself.

Only 2,442 business strikes of this year were made and my experience is that the 1863 half eagle is rare in all grades, especially in AU50 or better. I jogged my memory and couldn't recall having seen an example I thought was better than AU53 to AU55 in more than a decade. And, I remembered that this was an issue that typically comes with zero in the way of eye appeal. A quick look online showed me that the PCGS population was none for Uncirculated coins and five for AU58; NGC had graded two in Uncirculated (an MS60 and an MS61) and five in AU58. At the time, CAC hadn't approved a single 1863 in any grade; a good indication that the eye appeal of the typical example was not good.

(How can you, even without my experience, make the same conclusions? Look at the pictures of the 1863 half eagles sold at auction during the last ten years. Are the coin fresh and original or are they bright, abraded and processed? Then, look at the number of auction records. A quick scan of the PCGS archives showed a total of 30 records since 1941. What was immediately impressive to me about this figure was that the highly-regarded 1864-S half eagle had 32 auction records in that time period!)

Of course, all these statistics are just gobbledygook if the coin itself isn't "all there." As you can see from the photo above, this coin had really good eye appeal. In fact, my first question was "why is this only in a 60 holder?" (I recently overheard heard a wholesale dealer, who I regard as one of the top three graders in the world, refer to the MS60 grade as "dumb" and that he "hated it." I tend to agree with him but, in this case, I was smitten with the coin; even it was in the funkiest of all Mint State grades.)

So, at this point I was sold. What would I pay?

With no auction records for an Uncirculated coin, I looked at AU58's. The two most recent sales were $14,950 by Stacks Bowers in August 2012 and $14,375 by Heritage in May 2010. A quick look at images for both coins showed two pieces that were no better, in my opinion, than AU53 to AU55. So, after digesting this, I decided that I would pay at least $17,500-20,000 for a coin that was a real, CAC-quality AU58 (the last "real 58" I had seen was the Bass II coin which sold for $13,800 back in 1999...).

Having concluded that a "real" AU58 was worth as much as $20,000, I figured it would be OK to pay at least $30,000 for a really nice MS60. I wanted confirmation and then decided to see if there were comparable coins that had recent auction records in this grade. Back to the archives I went.

I didn't really find any good comparables for the 1864-P and 1865-P, two dates that I regard as somewhat similar to the 1863; at least in terms of overall desirability. I then looked at the 1863-S; an issue with 17,000 struck but a low survival rate. I believe that this date is about twice as available as its Philadelphia counterpart but, like the 1863-S, it is extremely rare in AU58 and above.

In their June 2011 auction, Stacks Bowers sold a nice NGC AU58+ 1863-S for a remarkable $25,875. This was the single best example of the date that I had seen in years and I thought the price realized would be strong but I was clearly not expecting a winning bid of over $25,000. But this was as good a comparable as I could find and it made me think that if a "gem slider" 1863-S half eagle was worth nearly $26,000 then a somewhat nicer example of a decidedly rarer date (the 1863-P) had to be worth at least $30,000-32,500.

After negotiations, I was able to purchase the 1863 half eagle in this price range. I sent it to CAC where it was approved, thus becoming the first and only stickered example of this date. I listed it for sale in the mid-30's and within a few hours I sold it to a specialist who had been looking for a high grade 1863 half eagle for many years.

And what exactly does this all prove? Here are a few thoughts that I gleamed:

1. With CDN Monthly Summary showing a "bid" of $20,000 for this date in MS60, I knew that I wasn't going to get any help from published price sheets. But that's not a surprise, given that no MS60 coin had ever traded.

2. A few things convinced me to stretch on this coin: its true rarity in all grades, its Civil War date of issue and its great eye appeal. But if I had been offered an 1863-P half eagle in MS60 that was ugly and processed, I might not have figured it for much more than the $20,000 or so that I decided a properly graded, attractive AU58 was worth; maybe even less, in fact.

3. When you are contemplating a purchase of a coin such as this 1863 half eagle, you have to be prepared to stretch. My quick analysis made me think it was a great deal at $25,000 and probably too much of a stretch at $40,000. So, at $30,000 I was still all in and at $35,000 I probably would have been as well but not without some complaining to the seller.

4. How effective is the comparable method I mentioned above for determining value? It can be very effective but it is fraught with potential landmines. Let's say there was just one comparable and it was from over a decade ago--would that be effective? Or what if there were three records and one was 100% higher for a comparable coin) than the other two--would you, as an informed buyer, know the circumstances behind this sale? Is it effective to compare a coin like an 1863 half eagle to, say, an 1863 eagle? Or is this too much of an "apples to oranges" scenario.

5. The bottom line is that no matter how pseudo-scientific we as dealers or collectors try to make pricing, a lot of the numbers that get placed on really rare coins are instinctual. If you are knowledgeable, you'll have a gut feeling that the price is "right" or its "wrong."

Would you like to read more about my thoughts on coin pricing? If so, feel free to email me at dwn@ont.com and fire away with some off your questions.

Assembling a Date Set of Civil War Gold Coins: Part Two, 1863

The first installment of this three-part article discussed the various Civil War gold issues struck in 1861 and 1862. The second part looks at the very interesting gold issues from 1863; a pivotal year in the history of the brutal war and a very significant year in the annals of American numismatic history.

1863 Gold Dollar: While 6,200 business strikes were made, this is a rarer date than most casual collectors know. I regard it as the single rarest gold dollar from the Philadelphia mint; rarer even than the 1875 with a mintage of just 400 pieces. The odd thing about the 1863 is that when available, it is likely to be found in the lower Uncirculated grades. As an example, there are a total of forty graded by PCGS but over half of these (twenty one to be exact) are in Uncirculated. There are a few Gems known. The finest is an incredible PCGS MS68 owned by a California specialist that, I believe, is from the Brand collection. There is also a PCGS MS66 that is owned by a collector.

This is an issue that is well made but one which tends to have problems with original surfaces and luster. I have seen a few really nice 1863 gold dollars but most have been cleaned or dipped and have poor eye appeal as a result. Any nice example of this issue is very desirable. For the advanced Civil War collector, the opportunity to acquire a piece grading MS64 or above would be quite special and should be looked at as important.

1863 Quarter Eagle: As you might recall from the first part of this series, the mintage for the 1861 quarter eagle was an absurdly high 1,283,878. Thus, there was no real need for business strike quarter eagles in 1863. The 1863 is a proof-only issue with just thirty struck. This makes it a key rarity in the Civil War gold set and, of course, the single rarest (and most expensive) issue from 1863.

There are around twenty 1863 quarter eagles known. Most are in the PR63 to PR64 range but there are a few gems remaining including some with lovely Deep Cameo contrast between the devices and the fields. I know of at least four or five PR65's and there may be a few more. The current auction record for this date is $149,500 for Heritage 1/07: 3107, graded PR66UC by NGC.

I have mixed feelings towards the 1863 quarter eagle. In some ways, I think it is a very undervalued issue as it is the third rarest Liberty Head quarter eagle (after the 1854-S and the 1841) in terms of total known. But if you look at it merely as a Proof issue from this era, it sells for a huge premium over dates like the 1864 and 1865 which are actually as rare--if not rarer--in terms of the total known as Proofs. What needs to be remembered is that if collecting Liberty Head quarter eagles by date ever becomes fashionable, the demand for this date is likely to exceed its supply and today's price levels are inevitably going to seem cheap.

1863-S Quarter Eagle: As you might expect, the 1863-S quarter eagle tends to be overlooked due to the rarity of its Proof-only Philadelphia counterpart. With just 10,800 struck, it is scarce in its own right. There are an estimated 100-125 extent with most in ther VF-EF range. An accurately graded AU50 to AU55 1863-S quarter eagle with nice color and surfaces is scarce and a properly graded AU58 is very rare. There are three or four in Uncirculated including two Gems: ANR 3/06: 1457 that sold for $50,600 (it is ex Eliasberg: 198) and the Dodson: 41 example that brought $18,700 all the way back in May 1992 when it was sold by Mid-American.

There are a few examples known of this date that are very weakly struck at the centers; this seems to be the result of an improper alignment of the dies. Most are well detailed but have unoriginal surfaces. The natural coloration for this issue is a medium to deep rose-gold to reddish hue which can be very appealing. For most Civil War date collections, a nice AU example of the 1863-S quarter eagle will suffice but I think Uncirculated pieces, if available, are good value.

1863 Three Dollars: This is one of the odder issues from the entire Civil War era. With just 5,000 business strikes made, you would expect the 1863 three dollar to be a rarity. While it is reasonably scarce from an overall standpoint, it is the most available Civil War issue of this denomination in Uncirculated and there are actually as many as a dozen to fifteen Gem to Superb Uncirculated pieces known. I have seen 1863 Threes that grade as high as MS67 to MS68 and I know of an example in a well-known dealer's collection (graded MS67 by PCGS) that is probably the single best business strike Three Dollar gold from the Civil War era of any date.

Nearly all 1863 Threes have prominent clashmarks at the centers and numerous mint-made die striations in the fields. The quality of strike is usually sharp and the luster tends to be excellent. There are a number of outstanding examples known and the collector should be able to find a great piece for his Civil War set. I'd suggest at least an MS64, if not a Gem.

1863 Half Eagle: There were 2,442 business strike half eagles made at the Philadelphia mint in 1863. There are around three dozen known today and while a number have been graded AU50 and better by NGC and PCGS, this is an extremely rare coin in higher grades. It is unknown in Uncirculated and I have seen maybe six to eight that I thought were truly About Uncirculated. The best I can recall was the PCGS AU58 Bass II: 1143 coin which went cheaply at $13,800 and it has been years since I've seen an AU example with even the slightest amount of eye appeal.

This is a date that saw quite a bit of circulation and the few that survived the melting pot tend to have excessive abrasions on the surfaces. In addition, nearly every 1863 half eagle that I have seen has been cleaned or dipped. As a result, examples with even decent eye appeal are exceedingly rare and the collector who only wants nice, original coins for his Civil War date set is going to find the 1863 half eagle to be a very frustrating issue. That said, I'd suggest waiting for the best available piece which is likely to be around AU55 or so.

1863-S Half Eagle: Demand for gold coins remained high in the western states during the Civil War and the mintage figure for the 1863-S half eagle was 17,000; nearly seven times more than for the 1863 Philadelphia half eagle. The 1863-S is certainly not seven times more available than the 1863-P; it saw heavy use in commerce and was later melted extensively. I have seen estimates that as many as sixty to seventy-five are known but this seems high; the likely number is more like fifty to sixty-five with most of these in very low grades. There is a single 1863-S half eagle known in Uncirculated (it is graded MS61 by PCGS) and there are maybe as many as seven to ten in AU. The current record for the date is $25,875 set by the NGC 58 sold as Lot 9489 in Stack's 6/11 auction.

When available, this date is found with better eye appeal than the 1863-P but not by much. The luster tends to be decent but most 1863-S half eagles are abraded (often heavily) and show evidence of cleaning or dipping. Any coin with original color and surfaces is rare and desirable. The Civil War collector should look for a nice AU53 to AU55 for his set.

1863 Eagle: And now we get to my favorite 1863 gold issue: the 1863-P eagle. The mintage of this issue is a tiny 1,218 business strikes and by most accounts, there are around thirty or so known. The 1863 is the second rarest Liberty Head eagle from this mint after the 1875 and it is one of the hardest issues of the entire design to locate in all grades despite not being all that well known. This date is unique in Uncirculated (a PCGS MS63) that is ex Bass IV: 683 (at $52,900) and earlier ex MARCA 9/91: 755 (sold to Harry Bass for a then-remarkable $104,500). There are around six to nine known in About Uncirculated and I can't recall having seen more than two or three that I felt were AU55 or AU58.

My comments for this issue are very similar to the 1863-P half eagle. It is a coin that saw rough use in commerce and the few that survive tend to show numerous abrasions, often in obtrusive locations. You can almost forget about eye appeal when it comes to this date, but I'd say that if you ever have the chance to obtain an 1863 eagle with an even remotely decent appearance, I'd suggest you approach it aggressively.

1863-S Eagle: There were 10,000 eagles struck at the San Francisco mint in 1863. This is a rare issue although not as much so as the 1863-P. I believe that there are around fifty or so known with most in the EF40 to AU50 range. As surprising as it seems, there may be as many as three 1863-S eagles known. The best is a PCGS MS61 that is ex Heritage 10/95: 6330 and before this was in the Norweb collection. The Bass IV: 684 coin was also a PCGS MS61. NGC has graded an MS61 that was last sold as Goldberg 2/09:1535. There are also a few reasonably nice AU's known including at least one from the S.S. Republic graded AU58 by NGC.

As with nearly all SF Civil War era gold, the 1863-S eagle is seldom found with natural color and surfaces. It is an issuee that is somewhat better made than in its half eagle counterpart and the few higher grade pieces known have better than average quality luster. This will not rove to be as challenging an issue to find as the 1863-P eagle but it is a rarity in its own right and any collection that has a nice AU55 or better example will probably never need to improve upon this.

1863 Double Eagle: After the 1862, the 1863 is the hardest Philadelphia double eagle from the Civil War to locate. There are a few hundred known in all grades with EF40 to AU50 examples being the most often seen. This date becomes scarce in the higher AU grades although it is far more available than, say, the 1863-P half eagle or eagle. In Uncirculated there are around two dozen known with most in the MS60 to MS61 range. The finest known is a single MS64 graded by PCGS; I believe this was once sold as Akers 8/90: 1960 and it brought $41,800 long before the Type One double eagle market was as active as it is today.

This is a well made issue that is better struck than the 1863-S double eagle and generally less abraded as well. The patient Civil War gold coin collector should be able to locate a nice AU example without much of a problem. An Uncirculated coin, at least in the MS60 to MS61 range, will be available from time to time as well. Anything that grades MS62 or finer will prove extremely hard to locate.

1863-S Double Eagle: The mintage for this one issue (966,570) is considerably more than all the other San Francisco gold denominations combined. Much of the newly discovered gold from California and Nevada was being used to produce double eagles and these coins saw active use in commerce.

The 1863-S double eagle is the most common gold coin of this year in circulated grades. It is possible to procure a presentable example in the $2,000-3,000 range and a nice Choice AU for around $5,000. In Uncirculated, the rarity of this date takes on a different profile. The 1863-S is scarce in MS60 to MS61 and very rare in properly graded MS62 with maybe five or six known. In MS63 there are probably another three or four. The finest known is currently an NGC MS64* that recently sold for $43,125 as Lot 5041 in the Heritage 1/12 auction.

As a year, the 1863 is one of the most interesting of the Civil War era. It is a year that has some really scarce coins but unlike the 1861, it has nothing that is impossible to find at any price (the 1861-P Paquet) or expensive due to its rarity and/or popularity. 1863 is a year that will prove extremely challenging to locate in higher grades and there are no "slam dunk" issues like the 1861 and 1862 gold dollars that will be easy to locate even in Gem grades.

In the upcoming third and final installment of this series, we will look at the 1864 and 1865 gold coinage. If you have questions or comments about these--or any--coins, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com