I recently received a really thoughtful email from a reader of this blog - and with his permission am reproducing it in full. November 16, 2013

An Open Letter to Doug Winter

Hi Doug,

On the day following the Eric Newman Part II early silver auction, I wanted to take the time to thank you for all you’ve done for the hobby over these years. In internet parlance, I’ve been a lurker, someone who follows a blog for some time without contributing. Truth be told, I’ve never even done business with you, despite calling you some years back regarding a branch mint coin. Back to the story, I read your recent blog regarding your experience with the Newman preview and was inspired to view it. Engineering a trip to NYC earlier this week, I had the pleasure of previewing the auction which you had described as “one of the most pleasurable coin-related experiences [you’d] had in years”. Not being a collector of early silver, I’ve always been intrigued by its beauty and historical significance. Add the beautiful toning from the Wayte Raymond albums’ sulfur to what was already a gorgeous assembly of high-grade coins and you were certainly right that this was an historic opportunity.

Like most collectors, I don’t have unlimited resources to commit to coins. Since I have historically concentrated upon territorial and gold-rush period shipwreck coins, I’ve typically felt that a dollar spent on non-territorial, moves me away from my specialty. Frankly, after viewing the magnificent Newman collection, I felt like the proverbial fellow at the dance who keeps falling in love with the last girl he danced with (read “the last coin he viewed”) as I went through box after box. After attending on-line and reviewing the results of last night’s Signature auction, I could hear in my head many of the lessons you’ve written about over the years. To loosely paraphrase you, here are a few:

fresh material that’s been off the market for years brings spirited bidding
with the really good coins, don’t be surprised that today’s price that seems a stretch will look like a bargain in retrospect
superior eye appeal can transcend traditional grading values and pricing
a good (in this case, great) collection is worth more than the sum of its parts
use of a knowledgeable, honest, good-hearted dealer (readers of your blog know you resemble that remark) can add tremendous value

To make a long story short, I fell in love with many of the coins, and was prepared to buy a few based on pre-auction bid prices. I had done my due diligence as best I could by viewing comparables on the auction websites and reviewing population data. Note to self, many coins were so appealing there were few visible “comparables” to judge fair pricing. As the bidding developed, I quickly saw that factors 1) thru 4) above were at work, bringing prices multiples of what I had determined were already solid prices. Not having significant experience with early silver, nor the time to consult a knowledgeable dealer, I was on my own.

I passed on most lots I had identified as their prices went to levels way beyond my estimates, although they may very well look like bargains later. Truth be told, I bought only one coin, solely because I thought it was cool on multiple factors. The coin is the 1817 over 3 bust half dollar in MS-64, Lot 33447. The factors:

a big, bold, well-struck coin with great Wayte Raymond toning and almost cameo-like eye appeal
a very visible error with the 7 looming over much of a 3; magnification not necessary to enjoy and much more prominent than the 1815/2 error which goes for big money
interesting vivid clash marks on both sides, very visible given the strike and toning
proof-like features so prominent that they were noted by Eric Newman and Walter Breen and the subject of considerable discussion
well-nestled in the condition census by grade, only 11 of 70 Heritage auction appearances were uncirculated, with few near gems, and frankly, none I liked more
provenance before Eric Newman was “Colonel” Green, son of Hetty Green, known as the witch of Wall Street; interesting history and connection to two great collections
I’m not sure if the Newman envelope that accompanies the coin reflects his acquisition or offer price, but he paid or valued it at $100 many years ago, far more than many of the other coins in this auction. I know it’s not scientific, but buying it for $28,200 seems a bargain when many other coins annotated by Newman for much less than $100 sold for a quarter million dollars or more.

It wasn’t quite graded a gem and it doesn’t have the CAC bean. It may not have the PCGS look. As a traditionally gold coin guy, I have trouble appreciating and viewing the somewhat muted toned “original” look much early silver exhibits; I like the flash. Perhaps I overpaid or knowledgeable folks could find fault, but it literally jumped out of the box during my preview. It turned me on for the above reasons and shall proudly sit in my cabinet to remind me of this historic sale for years to come!

Closing the loop, I wanted to thank you again for what you do for the hobby. Keep on dealing and writing. I’ve read and enjoyed all your branch mint books and I visit your website often to view your inventory and gain perspective. Your enthusiasm is contagious and your eye for the right look in a coin is superb. Don’t ever think that because you don’t get feedback on a particular piece you write or a sale from every interaction you have with a collector, you are not making an impact. It is folks like you (and Eric Newman, thru his generosity) that knowingly or not mentor, develop, and inspire the future collectors that keep our hobby vibrant. Developing future generations of collectors should be a goal of us all.

Please feel free to publish this article if you see fit, but withhold my name for privacy reasons. I hope this gives you some material, so you can have a well-deserved break from the excellent writing. Thank you.

1817/3 Bust Half NGC MS64, lot 33447, image courtesy of Heritage

Our writer also attached a wonderful photo of himself, with his 4-month old daughter, bidding on the 1817/3 bust half. He plans to give it to her when she’s old enough to understand. Thank you to our ghost-writer for sharing!

Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have gold coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert working directly with you when assembling a set?
Contact Doug Winter at 214.675.9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

After 25+ years of encapsulating coins and 50+ million submissions, it is clear that PCGS and NGC have had a huge impact on the way we view coin rarity. I have personally learned many things: which coins are rare and which are not; which coins are true condition rarities and how issues within a specific series can be viewed on a comparative basis. This got me to thinking: how many coins within a series need to be graded (on a percentage basis) to make definitive rarity statements? And once this has been determined, what percentage of coins within certain series have already been graded by PCGS and NGC? To start making trenchant observations about absolute and conditional rarity, I think we have to feel confident that over 50-60% of all known coins in a specific series have been graded. When it comes to expensive (let's say $5,000 and up) gold coins, I think the percentage of all coins graded by PCGS and/or NGC ranges from a low of around 65-70% to a high of close to 90%.

Let's take a look at a few specific areas and try to guess what percentage of coins have been graded.

1. Charlotte and Dahlonega Gold

The Charlotte and Dahlonega market was reasonably hesitant to embrace third-party grading and this initially made sense, given how erratically these coins were graded by PCGS and NGC during their formative years. But by the end of the 1980's, submitters were more confident and large quantities of these pieces were being encapsulated. And given the high average value of C+D gold, it makes sense that even the low end coins would eventually be sent in for slabbing.

My guess is that a great majority of Charlotte and Dahlonega gold in all denominations resides in PCGS or NGC holders as of 2013. There are certainly still a few old school collectors who have held out and won't have " those confounded newfangled slabs" in their collections but these are seen less and less as the years pass. And given the fact that there were never many C+D coins in overseas sources, such as European banks, the thought of bags of Dahlonega half eagles lurking in Dortmund seems remote.

When you look at PCGS and NGC populations figures for C+D mint gold, you have to remember a few things. The first is that these figures are inflated by resubmissions. The second is that they, of course, do not include damaged or cleaned coins which do not qualify for slabbing. Taking these two factors into consideration, I'd still say that the percentage of C+D gold which has been graded by PCGS and NGC is comparatively high; ranging from 75 to 85% of the known examples. In the case of choice, high end pieces (MS60 and above) this might be as high as 90% with the few renegade raw coins being those held by museums such as the ANS and the Smithsonian.

2. Proof Gold

I always felt that one aspect of slabbing which was undervalued was its ability to protect fragile coins. Back in the old days, coins were typically transported to shows loose in 2x2 plastic flips and it would always make me cringe to see a coin like a Gem Proof Liberty Head double eagle in a soft flip. You knew that these coins were collecting hairlines with every trip to Long Beach or New York. Slabs were far safer environments for such coins. Because of this, Proof gold was an early adherent and by the late 1980's/early 1990's many Proof gold coins were already in slabs.

Then came the Great Proof Gold Era of 1995-2000 when collections such as Childs, Bass and Pittman were sold at auction. In some cases you had very rare issues with ten or so known coins having three different survivors sold in a short period of time. Virtually all of these coins wound up being encapsulated or, in the case of the Bass collection, were sold in PCGS slabs.

There are still two rich sources of unslabbed Proof gold: the ANS collection and the US Mint collection in the Smithsonian. But other than these two, I doubt if there are more than a handful of gradable Proof gold coins that still lurk in the raw. I'm going to guess that the percentage of pre-1916 proof US gold coins that have been graded by PCGS and NGC are at least 85% and may actually be as high as 90%.

3. Early Gold

I can remember auctions full of interesting unslabbed early gold coins as recently as the mid-1990's but these days are long, long gone. Today, virtually all early gold that is capable of being encapsulated is now encased in slabs. There were holdouts in this area of the market who lasted longer than in the two categories mentioned above and for good (and bad) reasons. I can remember dealing with some old time collections as recently as the 1990's who felt that they knew more about early gold than PCGS and NGC did and, in a few cases, they were right. Also, lower grade early gold wasn't as expensive then as it is now and a raw problem-free 1810 half eagle wasn't looked at like a man with two heads might be today.

The grading services have vastly improved their ability to grade early gold and most of the old time collectors who scoffed at slabs have passed away or are no longer active. Today's generation of early gold collectors and investors would just as soon eat dirt as they would buy any early gold coin unslabbed and they have come to rely on PCGS and NGC to help them grade these complicated issues. As a result, I'd have to estimate that at least 75-85% of all early gold is now encapsulated and I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number is as high as 90%.

4. Generic Gold

When I speak of Generic Gold, I aam refering about coins such as common date With Motto Liberty Head half eagles and common St. Gaudens double eagles. Staggering numbers of these coins exist in the higher circulated grades and the lower Uncirculated grades and many of these have been graded by PCGS and NGC. If you look at population figures for coins like 1901-S eagles in MS62 to MS64 or 1927 Saints in MS62 to MS64, the numbers are pretty impressive.

But I think there are still very large quantities of these coins that have not been sent in to PCGS and NGC. I know for a fact that there are at least six or seven American firms who import large amounts of United States gold coins from European and other overseas sources every month. While supplies from Europe ebb and flow, the quantities coming over every year are still immense; in the tens of thousands at the very least.

So while there are hundreds and hundreds of thousands of generics in slabs, I think that the quantity of raw coins remains very large. I'm sort of guessing here but I wouldn't be surprised if the number of slabbed generic coins in slabs is only 50% of the total that have survived.

5. Miscellaneous

As I mentioned above, one of the parameters of slabbing coins is the economics involved. If a coin is worth $400, it is less likely to be slabbed than if it is worth $3,000. But a reasonably interesting $400 coin, like an AU50 1851-O dollar is more likely to be slabbed than an uninteresting $400 gold coin like a common date $2.50 Indian in AU50. Becuase of this fact, I think there are still tens of thousands of cheap American gold coins which have yet to be slabbed although this number is diminishing over time due to the rise in gold prices and the demand for slabbed coins versus raw coins.

There are still some non-gold series where lots of nice collector-grade coins have not been slabbed due mostly to collector preference. Examples of this include Large Cents, Seated Liberty coinage and Barber coinage in all denominations. This includes significant numbers of problem-free coins in the $100-2,500 price range in grades ranging from AG to AU. You can still go to coin shows and find interesting raw coins like 1862-S half dollars in nice EF45 or 1874-CC trade dollars in VF30. While I don't see the end of the line--yet--for such coins, I can tell you that more and more are being "made" at PCGS and NGC.

So what can we conclude from my percentage guesstimates regarding numbers of coins graded at the services?

The most important conclusions is that, yes, sizable percentages of many United States gold coins have been encapsulated and due to this fact we can make statements about rarity--fundamental, absolute and condition--which really couldn't be made as recently as a decade ago.

That said, there are still important and impressive individual coins "in the wild" and in collections that are not widely known which always make me hesitate to make definitive statements along the line of "this is the finest known" or "this is the rarest Liberty Head half eagle in Uncirculated" (and believe me, I make more of these statements than the average coin dealer...) With the recent sale announcement of the Eric Newman collection, this reminded that important new discoveries (or re-discoveries) await us with each passing year.

I want to know your thoughts on this subject. If you'd like, share them below or email me at dwn@ont.com.