1873 $20.00 PCGS AU55 CAC Gold Sticker, OGH

Old Green Label holder; CAC Gold Sticker. By today's standards, this coin grades MS60 to MS61. Frosty with mellow old gold color contrasted by some deeper hues on the obverse. Lightly abraded in the fields but totally original and very pleasing.

CAC has approved seven in this grade with 252(!) finer. It is not known how many have gold stickers.

1856-S $20.00 PCGS AU50 CAC Gold Sticker, OGH

Old Green Holder. CAC Gold Sticker. By today's standards, this piece grades at least AU55 if not AU58. A choice, original example and clearly not a seawater coin as it was encapsulated prior to the discovery of the S.S. Central America hoard. Satiny with light rose and orange-gold coloration gives this coin good eye appeal and the surfaces are very clean for the issue.

CAC has approved two in AU50 with seventeen finer. There population report does not designate how many have received gold stickers but I would assume the number is very small.

1864-S $20.00 PCGS EF40 CAC OGH

Old Green Holder. I grade this coin a solid EF45 by today's standards. A handsome "Euro" example with deep green-gold color accentuated by darker highlights on the obverse and reverse. The surfaces are extremely clean. A nice example of this popular Civil War issue.

CAC has approved just this one coin in EF40 with seventeen in higher grades.

1887-S $20.00 PCGS MS62

The 1887-S is the scarcest San Francisco double eagle produced after 1882. For years it was a totally unheralded sleeper but it has become better recognized by specialists. This date is moderately scarce in MS60 to MS61, scarce in MS62 and rare in MS63 and better. For most collectors, an MS62 represents the "sweet spot" for this date as a properly graded PCGS MS63, if available, will cost in the area of $14,000-15,000. This example is choice and original with very attractive rose and green-gold color with a splash or orange at the central obverse. There are a few light ticks in the fields that are consistent with the assigned grade. The last two APR's for PCGS MS62 1887-S double eagles are $4,600 for Heritage 1/12: 6706 and $4,888 for Stack's Bowers 11/11: 9929 (approved by CAC).

Factors That Influence Coin Prices: The Not-So-Obvious

Coin prices are impacted by a number of factors. The most obvious of these are supply and demand. Simply put, if a coin has a greater degree of demand than available supply, the price is going to be strong. But what are some of the not-as-obvious factors that impact coin prices? Here are some observations. 1. Quality of Demand. There are different levels of demand for any rare coin. There's "I'm sort of kicking tires and I'm wondering if you might have the following D Mint quarter eagle," and there's "I've been looking for a nice 1840-D quarter eagle for five years, its the last coin I need to finish my set and I have to have it!" The latter is, obviously, a higher quality of demand and this buyer would be willing to pay a significantly higher price than the lukewarm, casual buyer.

While this example is deliberately extreme in its contrast, there are clearly different levels of demand that impact coin prices. Another factor is venue.

I am very interested in marketing and branding and one of the things that interests me is creating demand for new products. Brands now do "mash ups" where a hot young designer of furniture, as an example, designs a limited edition sneaker design for Adidas or Nike. Only 500 might be released and collectors will pay a significant premium for this because of its perceived scarcity. And, it might be offered only at a "pop up" venue where you have to wait for an hour to just see the sneakers and where's there is no time to sit and ponder if you will or won't make the purchase. You are pre-sold and you represent a high quality of demand.

I see this sort of collector behavior for coins at auction. The major firms do a great job of creating an environment that fosters competition and turns a coin purchase into blood sport. As an example, how many times have you, as a bidder, placed an on-line bid and received an outbid notice only to say "I know I shouldn't this but I'll be damned if I'm going to let myself get outbid on this D Mint quarter eagle?" At a live auction, it is even easier to lose control when bidding (which is why I suggest hiring an agent, but that's another story...) and I can recall numerous incidents when bidding has turned into a ego-fest between collectors or dealers.

2. Promotions. A decade ago, when large-scale telemarketers seemingly controlled the coin market, having information about the next coin or series that was going to be promoted could make or break a wholesale dealer. As an example, I can remember at least a few times that Commemorative Gold coins were about to be pushed, and quietly buying coins at pre-promotional levels so that I could sell into a potential rising market.

This isn't the case so much in the 2012 coin market due to the Democratization of Information as a result of widespread web access. But rare coins are still being promoted and this can be a subtle factor in price increases.

In December 2010 I wrote a blog entitled "Which Civil War Gold Coins Will Be Promoted in 2011," which represented my unbiased opinion(s) that the upcoming 150th anniversary of the beginning of the Civil War was a good opportunity for someone to promote Civil War gold coins. It seems that at least a few people read this blog, as I know of two marketers who, perhaps as a result of my suggestion, began promoting the exact coins I suggested in the article. Plus, said article inspired me to become a more active buyer of high end Civil War gold coinage and to write a major four part series in 2012 about collecting these coins:

Part I Part II Part III Part IV

3. Registry Set Collecting: In many series of coins, the passion of Registry Set collectors results in amazing prices for the right coin(s). This hasn't impacted 18th and 19th century gold coins all that much as there is little Registry Set collecting for early gold and Liberty Head issues (although I wouldn't be surprised if we begin to see serious registry collecting in popular areas like CC double eagles or Dahlonega half eagles in the very near future).

The areas in the better gold coin market that seem most likely to be impacted by Registry Set collecting in the immediate future are 20th century issues. I find it very surprising that dealers or marketers who specialize in series like $2.50 Indians haven't seriously promoted the Registry as a way to impact the demand on rarer dates in high grades. For a while, there were a small but dedicated number of Registry Sets in the St. Gaudens double eagle series that were highly competitive and which greatly influenced the prices of high grade better date PCGS encapsulated Saints. My guess is that this will happen again in the not-so-distant future.

4. Pushing Hot Buttons. Most collectors of high(er) dollar coins are Baby Boomers. And I believe that a major part of the strong, strong market in key date American coins in the past decade has been the ability of these coins to push the hot buttons of buyers. Let me explain:

Just the other day, I got back a coin from PCGS that hit my nostalgia button as hard as any has in some time. It was a perfect, even-brown VF30 1877 Cent. When I was a wee lad, I collected Indian Cents and the 1877 was a mythical rarity that I could only dream of owning. Today, this is a coin that I can easily afford and the $1,500-1,750 that this coin would cost me, as a collector, would exorcize some of the oh-why-can't -I-fill-that-1877-hole frisson that haunted me when I was eight or nine.

There are, of course, other hittable hot buttons for gold collectors as well. Cool design? That's an affirmative, High Relief double eagle. Great background story? Hello, Carson City double eagle! The "neatness" factor of owning an 18th century issue? That would be you, 1799 eagle.

5. Historical Significance. As numismatics becomes less about investors and more about collectors, I am finding the historic significance of certain issues are becoming more available because of their historic significance. This includes a number of factors, a few of which include the following:

-Background Story: I don't think its a coincidence that coins like 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles or 1861-O double eagles have become much more in demand due to their fantastic background stories. -Provenance: This may not be the case for all collectors but for some of us (and you know who you are...) the allure of an Eliasberg or Norweb pedigree is a definite factor that influences the price that we pay for a neat coin. -"The Look:" As the internet has (re)proven, numismatics is very visual. Coins that have a great appearance (such as wonderful deep coloration or lots of dirt clinging to the recessed areas) are pieces that a certain type of collector will pay a premium for.

There are other not-so-obvious factors that influence what collectors will pay for a coin. What are some of the ones that went undiscussed in this blog that impact you?

1837 $5.00 NGC AU53 CAC

As a date, the 1837 is the most undervalued of all the Classic Head half eagles from the Philadelphia mint. This nice, original example shows attractive deep original green-gold color with a considerable amount of dirt seen on the reverse. Nearly every example of this date that I have seen has been dipped or conserved and pieces with good eye appeal are actually quite scarce.

This is the only 1837 half eagle in this grade to have received approval from CAC. A total of nineteen higher have been approved as well.

1874-CC $20.00 PCGS EF45

A well-detailed example with enough luster seen to suggest a slightly higher grade. This date should bring a much higher premium over the more common 1875-CC than it currently does.

1852 $20.00 PCGS MS61

While very common in all circulated grades, the 1852 double eagle is very scarce in Uncirculated and is almost never seen above the MS61 to MS62 level. So far in 2012, there have been exactly two MS61 examples that have sold at auction: a PCGS/CAC piece that brought $10,925 in Heritage's 4/12 sale and an NGC/CAC MS61 that realized $9,775 in this firm's 3/12 sale. The present example is certainly more "new" than these others with fuller luster and very, very choice surfaces. A few light scuffs in the left obverse field seem to be all that separates this piece from a higher grade and the level of eye appeal is quite high for the grade. There is a big price jump to MS62 for this date and a nice PCGS MS61 like this should appeal to most Type One collectors.

1846-O $5.00 NGC AU50 CAC

This was a date that I used to see from time to time but, for some reason, the supply of decent 1846-O half eagles has dried up in recent years. I'm not sure if someone is hoarding these or if the popularity of New Orleans gold amongst collectors has dried-up the supply. The present example is the first 1846-O half eagle that I've offered in some time and it has nice medium orange-gold and greenish hues atop relatively choice surfaces. There have been just five APR's for 1846-O half eagles in AU50 in the last decade and the high water mark is $3,738 set by Heritage 1/06: 5159.

CAC has approved just this one 1846-O half eagle in AU50 with five finer.