Here are five collecting trends which I see making a big impact in the rare date gold market in 2022.

1. THE RETURN OF THE 12 PIECE TYPE SET

From time to time, I still see a relic from the 1980s: 12 piece US gold type sets housed in Capital plastic holders with all coins graded “Brilliant Uncirculated.” (In nearly all cases, at least a few of the coins aren’t “BU” and, in fewer cases, at least one or two of the coins are counterfeit).

This collecting trend died with the advent of slabbing, but it is making a comeback in 2022. This set consists of three gold dollars, two quarter eagles, one three dollar, two half eagles, two eagles, and two double eagles.

Typically, all the coins in this set are Uncirculated with most grading at least MS63 to MS64. Every type in this 12 coin group is obtainable in MS65, although the Three Dollar and the Indian Head half eagle are challenging; especially if the set is going to be all-CAC.

To make this set a bit more interesting, I would suggest adding “plus” coins (i.e., MS64+) when sensible and better dates; again, when sensible.

2. THE RETURN OF THE TYPE ONE LIBERTY HEAD DOUBLE EAGLE MARKET

Due to the impact of thousands of Type One double eagles entering the market as the result of the Fairmont hoard, the market for most of this series suffered price meltdowns in 2018-2020.

In 2021, the market for Type One double eagles saw price increases for slightly better dates in AU and Uncirculated grades.

In 2022, I see this segment of the market showing further strength as more collectors become interested in this challenging series.

Type Ones truly have “something for everyone” as issues range from $2,000 to $500,000+.

A trend within this market which I can see gaining traction in 2022 is a “year set” of Type One double eagles, which includes one example from each of the 17 years in which this design was produced.

3. TROPHY COINS SOAR IN DEMAND AND PRICE

There appears to be plenty of new money in the 2022 coin market, and much of the high priced items are Trophy Coins. These aren’t necessarily the Trophy Coins of Yore such as Stellas, High Reliefs, Wire Edge Indian Head eagles, and Pan-Pac $50s.

Trophy Coins of 2022 struck in gold include high denomination Proof gold, choice and gem early gold (especially coins dated prior to 1800), ultra-rare Territorial and Pioneer issues, finest known, or high Condition Census branch mint rarities and coins with great eye appeal.

Recent auction sales have shown that the “right” coin doesn’t have to be graded by PCGS (although this clearly helps), and it doesn’t even need to be approved by CAC (although this really helps).

4. ‘JUMP COINS’ BECOME POPULAR (AGAIN…)

Many years ago I wrote about a concept which I called “jump coins.” This entails buying good coins at the exact price point before they explode in value.

Let’s say we’re looking at a rare date Dahlonega quarter eagle in which the price guide is $7,500 in AU55 and $18,500 in AU58. If I were offered a nice original piece in a 55 holder for $8,500, and also had a chance to purchase a different example in a 58 holder which was also a nice coin for $20,000, it is very likely that I’ll buy the lower priced coin as it is likely a better value.

Of course, this isn’t true 100% of the time. I the case of the Dahlonega quarter eagle mentioned above, if the AU58 represents the best available quality for the issue and it has a low population, I might well pay up for the higher graded coin.

5. PRICING COINS BECOMES VERY DIFFICULT

Even in a steady market, it is very difficult to find accurate price guides for many better date gold coins. In a very strong market, like we are experiencing in 2022, it is almost impossible to find accurate pricing.

A lot of this has to do with the difficulty of keeping up with price changes especially when they occur rapidly. Another issue is how much does one extremely strong transaction impact the market.

Let’s look at a random example.

In November 2021, Heritage sold a not especially choice PCGS AU58 1882-CC double eagle for an inexplicable $18,000. The most recent comparable for this was an NGC AU58 which sold for $6,490 in July 2021. At the time the PCGS coin was sold, the PCGS Price Guide had a value of $7,000 for this date. After this sale, the price was increased to $8,750 and it was increased again in January 2022 to $10,500. The market for CC twenties is very deep, and clearly this one price was an outlier. But it tells me that this coin is difficult to price right now. In my opinion, a non-CAC 1882-CC $20 is currently worth around $7,750-8,250, while a CAC approved example is worth $8,750-9,750+.

What are some of the trends you see for the coin market in 2022? Please add your comments to this blog. Or, if you prefer, send them to me offline via email at dwn@ont.com.

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