Ten Buyer's Tips for San Francisco Gold Coin Collectors

If you are a collector of San Francisco gold coins, there are a few buying tips I’d like to offer. These range from pretty basic to pretty savvy, and they can be applied (in some cases) to other series if San Francisco coins are not your particular cup of chai.

1. Don’t Pay Shipwreck Prices for non-Shipwreck Coins

It is an established fact in the market that coins from the major shipwrecks are worth a premium over non-shipwreck coins. This is especially true for S.S. Central America coins with low shipwreck populations. But this information can be misinterpreted and can cause a collector to overpay. Let me give you an example.

Recently, I was offered a decent quality AU58 1855-S double eagle by another dealer. As part of his sales pitch, he mentioned that an example had recently sold for $7,931; thus his coin, priced at $7,500, seemed like a good deal. What he conveniently failed to mention to me was that this auction price was for a coin pedigreed to the S.S. Central America and that the last non-SSCA coin had brought $5,288. Once I mentioned this, his reaction was a simple “oh…I forgot to mention that, huh?”

When you are figuring prices for S mint coins, especially Type One double eagles, the sales records for shipwreck coins have little bearing on non-shipwreck coins and vice versa.

2. Don’t Pay Full Shipwreck Prices for Re-Packaged Coins

The premiums that shipwreck coins sell for are packaging-dependent. In other words, an AU58 1855-S double eagle from the S.S. Central America is worth more (quite a bit more in fact) if it is in an original PCGS gold-foil holder than in an NGC holder. Why? Because in this instance, the coins from the SSCA were originally graded by PCGS, and collectors want them in their original packaging.

Another example: in 2013, three PCGS/CAC MS66 1857-S double eagles in their original gold-foil holders were sold at auction, and they brought $32,900, $32,900, and $33,030. Two NGC MS66 examples sold this year and they realized $17,625. Why? Because the market clearly realizes that these coins were formerly PCGS MS65’s and because they are no longer in their original holders.

3. Premium Quality San Francisco CAC Coins Can Be Worth Significant Premiums

As I have previously discussed, many San Francisco issues do not come nice, and it is likely that their CAC populations will be very low. Let me give you two quick examples.

The 1862-S half eagle is a very scarce date in all grades and it is seldom found choice and original. PCGS has graded 39, and CAC shows a current population of just two coins; an EF40 and an EF45. Now granted that many 1862-S half eagles in PCGS holders have not been sent to CAC, but the fact two only two have been approved (and none above EF45) indicates that this is an issue that is not seen with a nice, natural appearance.

As another example, let’s look at the 1862-S eagle; a date which is nearly as rare as its half eagle counterpart. PCGS has graded 45 examples and CAC shows a current population of just two: an EF45 and an AU55. Again, not all the PCGS coins have been sent to CAC, but my feeling is that the percentage of 1862-S eagles (and half eagles) with CAC approval will remain very small; probably less than 10% of the coins graded.

It seems to me that CAC approved examples of the 1862-S half eagle and eagle should be worth a fairly significant premium above their non-CAC counterparts.

4. How Do You Price Very Rare Date San Francisco Gold?

When it comes to rare/very rare San Francisco gold coinage, most published price guides are of little to no use. Auction prices are far more relevant, and this is how I price such coins. So how do you price a coin in, say, EF45 when the last auction record was in 2008?

Here are some of the factors that I take into consideration when pricing San Francisco gold. First, is the coin fundamentally rare? In the case of the aforementioned 1862-S half eagle and eagle, these are issues which are rare in all grades. Secondly, how nice is the coin which is being offered to me? Is it abraded, not terribly original and softly struck, or is it relatively free of marks, original and well impressed for the issue? If it is the former, an older auction record might have some weight with my pricing. If it is the latter, I know I will have to stretch; maybe considerably.

5. The Two Distinct Groups of San Francisco Gold

As San Francisco gold becomes more popular, we are seeing a distinct bifurcation of the market: the coins made prior to 1879 which tend to be rare in all grades, and the coins made after 1879 which tend to be rare only in high (or very high grades).

I think we will continue to see quite a bit strength in the rarity-driven market as collectors tend to be more interested in coins like 1862-S half eagles in VF than in 1892-S half eagles grading MS64. The market for condition rarities will be more hit or miss. Certain coins, including many of the “top pops” from the Saddle Ridge Hoard, will be eagerly absorbed into collections. Others may prove far harder to sell.

6. Year Sets Will Become Popular

There were six different denominations of gold coinage produced at the San Francisco mint. There were just four years in which all six denominations were made, and one of these includes a unique issue (the 1870-S three dollar). This leaves collectors with three possible choices for six-coin year sets: 1856, 1857, and 1860.

None of these three years contains an impossible rarity, and the first two years could even be completed in Uncirculated grades. The 1860-S is the most difficult set as the half eagle and the eagle are both rare in all grades, and virtually impossible to find above AU55.

I don’t think these sets are The Next Big Thing in coin collecting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few savvy collectors attempted to complete at least one year.

7. Learn What Real Color Looks Like

There are numerous high-value San Francisco gold coins in both PCGS and NGC holders which have questionable color. I suggest you learn what original color looks like for the San Francisco issues which are of interest to you. Notice I didn’t suggest you learn how to grade; I think most of you taking the time to read this have other things to do with your few free minutes per day. But I do think it’s important to learn that, as an example, all 1862-S quarter eagles are supposed to have a certain shade of color, and if you see one which isn’t close to this shade, it’s likely been enhanced.

How do you learn what original coins look like? Look at catalogs with old time collections (Bass, Norweb, James Stack, and Eliasberg) and study the hues/patterns of color that these coins had. Go to the ANA Museum in Colorado Springs and study the Bass coins. Carefully study the raregoldcoins.com Coinapedia to see hundreds of pictures of unmolested, original coins.

8. Learn How to Differentiate Strike vs. Wear on Type One and Type Two Double Eagles

Many new collectors of San Francisco gold are thrown off by the difference between strike and wear on Type One and Type double eagles; two of the most popular series from this mint.

As you begin to learn about these coins, you will begin to determine that certain issues are always found with weakness on the hair or on the stars or even at the centers. Learn which issues are struck which way. This is reasonably easy to do as photo archives for higher grade San Francisco double eagles can be found on ha.com or on PCGS Coinfacts.

9. Best Value Grades

I have written before on Best Value Grades. As San Francisco gold coins become more popular and increase in value, I think this is an important point for collectors to consider.

10. Does Size Matter?

So far, the San Francisco gold coin renaissance has been led by large-size coins: eagles and double eagles. Will this increase in popularity carry over to smaller coins?

I can see gold dollars and three dollars from this mint becoming popular due to the possibility of these being collected by series, and the possibility of these sets being completed.

The quarter eagles from this mint I’m not as sure about. The fundamentals of these coins make sense to me. Other than the 1854-S, all the issues are obtainable and many can be purchased in Uncirculated grades for under $5,000. But with the exception of the Civil War issues, these coins have just not yet caught on with collectors.

The “wild card” series is the half eagles. These are already reasonably expensive coins and in the case of the Civil War rarities, and they are more expensive than most any southern branch mint half eagle while (currently) being far less popular. It is hard to call a moderately popular (but indisputably rare) issue like an 1862-S half eagle “undervalued” when it is already a pricey coin. But “value” is relative, especially in the rare date gold market and I think San Francisco half eagles—at least those struck prior to 1878—are destined to become very avidly collected in the next few years.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Why is San Francisco Gold Hot Right Now?

As recently as a few years ago, I was wondering why San Francisco gold coins weren’t as popular as I thought they should have been (a blog from one year ago, for example). But a combination of factors has quickly turned the market for certain San Francisco gold coins, and still other factors bode well for the future popularity of nearly all gold coins from this facility.

Why have San Francisco gold coins gone from unpopular to popular in a relatively short period of time? I think there are a few factors at play.

The first is obvious: rarity has really become en vogue in the coin market in the last few years, and it is hard to argue with the fact that most pre-1878 San Francisco gold coins are both absolute and condition rarities. You don’t have to suspend disbelief when, for example, you look up the number of coins graded at PCGS for 1860-S eagles and you see a whopping 23 graded (and assuming the typical number of resubmissions, this might equate to as few as 15 separate examples). Many new collectors have become attracted to coins which are rare not just because a piece of plastic says so.

The second is less obvious: I see younger collectors coming into the rare date gold market and these individuals tend to not want to buy the coins that their parents were attracted to. Which, in certain cases, means out with the southern branch mint coins and in with the western mints. If you think about it, Charlotte and Dahlonega coinage has reigned supreme in dated gold popularity circles for over 25 years. Maybe it’s just time the pendulum swung somewhere else, and San Francisco coins became popular as a result.

The third is simultaneously obvious and not obvious: the various shipwrecks full of San Francisco double eagles have focused considerable attention on large-sized coins from this mint, and the newly-discovered Saddle Ridge Hoard is likely to do this yet again. Does the typical collector who buys an 1857-S S.S. Central America double eagle in MS65 suddenly take an interest in 1857-S gold dollars or quarter eagles? Probably not, but you can certainly make the connection between the new interest in San Francisco gold with all the publicity these finds have generated in both the pre-internet and internet eras.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard motivated me to provide readers with a basic guide to San Francisco gold coins of all denominations, and to provide some collecting tips as well.

Before we look at each denomination and type, a couple of things need mentioning for beginning collectors. The San Francisco mint opened in 1854 and struck gold coins, with occasional interruptions, until 1930. Gold coins were struck in the following denominations: dollars, quarter eagles, three dollar gold pieces, half eagles, eagles, and double eagles.

Gold Dollars

Type One (1854 only)

The 1854-S dollar is a one-year type which saw a mintage of 14,632. It is common in circulated grades and available from time to time in the lower Mint State grades. It becomes rare in MS63 to MS64, and Gems are extremely rare. There are probably two or three known in MS65, and the best I have personally seen is the Pittman I: 863 coin, now graded MS65 by PCGS, which was recently sold to a California specialist; it brought $33,000 back in its 1997 auction appearance. I like this issue a lot and find it to be much undervalued, given its numismatic significance as a dual first-year-of-issue and one year type.

Type Two (1856)

The ill-fated Type Two gold dollar design was introduced in 1854, but it didn’t reach the San Francisco mint until 1856; a year in which the Philadelphia and Dahlonega mints were already striking dollars with the new Type Three design.

The 1856-S dollar is a common issue in circulated grades and a surprisingly high number exist from the original mintage of 24,600. It is moderately scarce in the lower Uncirculated grades, rare in properly graded MS62 to MS63, and very rare above this. I have never seen a Gem, and maybe four or five in MS64 which I thought were choice. The current auction record for this date is $52,875, set by an NGC MS64 with CAC approval which sold as Heritage 2/13: 3910.

There are two varieties known for this date: the normal mintmark, and the visually impressive S/S which is actually the most common of the pair.

The 1856-S is another numismatically significant issue which is a one-year type.

Type Three (1857-1860 and 1870)

Type Three dollars were made at the San Francisco mint for just five years, including a ten year gap between the fourth and the final issue. The first four issues all have reasonably similar mintages (between 10,000 and 13,000) and similar rarity profiles. All are usually seen in EF45 to AU55 grades and are very scarce in the lower Mint State grades. Most are exceedingly rare in MS63 and above, and non-existent in Gem. The 1870-S has a mintage of only 3,000 coins but it is more available than its earlier counterparts, especially in comparatively high grades.

The Type Three gold dollars from San Francisco are very affordable and a nice About Uncirculated set could be assembled for around $10,000. I think these coins are very undervalued, especially in properly graded MS61 and above.

Liberty Head Quarter Eagles (1854-1863, 1865-1873, 1875-1879)

The quarter eagles from this mint begin with the second rarest gold coin ever produced in San Francisco: the 1854-S. A mere 246 were struck, and there are an estimated dozen or so known with the single finest of these grading AU50 at PCGS. For many years, the 1854-S quarter eagle was a neglected Classic Rarity. Prices began to appreciate around ten years ago and have risen since, but I still feel that the 1854-S is an undervalued coin compared to other less rare 19th and 20th century issues.

The other San Francisco quarter eagles from the pre-Civil War years are less interesting (and far more available) than the 1854-S. The Civil War issues themselves are scarce with the low mintage (8,000 struck) 1862-S leading the way.

The 1865 through 1873 issues form one of the more undervalued groups in all of American numismatics. These coins are certainly not rare in circulated grades, but nice AU coins are typically available in the $1,500-2,500 range and these represent excellent value. Most of these dates are even available, from time to time, in the lower Uncirculated and are still comparably affordable.

This denomination was terminated by the San Francisco mint after 1879. Today, quarter eagles from this mint are not terribly popular with collectors. This could very easily change and a nice quality set, minus the rare 1854-S, is still within reach of the collector with an average budget. In fact, if I were a collector with a budget of around $2,500 per coin, I would seriously look at specializing in San Francisco quarter eagles.

Three Dollar Gold Pieces (1855-1857, 1860 and 1870)

Production of this odd denomination was a seeming afterthought at the San Francisco mint with only one issue, the 1856-S, having a significant original mintage figure. The four obtainable San Francisco three dollar gold pieces are all reasonably obtainable in EF and the lower AU grades, but all are scarce in properly graded AU55, rare in AU58, and very rare in Uncirculated.

The rarest collectible three dollar gold piece from this mint is the 1855-S with an original mintage of just 6,600. It is a numismatically significant issue due to its status as a first-year issue, but unlike its counterparts the 1854-O and 1854-D, it is not a one-year type and it is not as popular as the two southern coins. The 1855-S is exceedingly rare in Uncirculated and there is a single Proof known which brought $1,322,500 in Heritage’s 8/11 auction.

The 1870-S is a unique issue which is in the ANA Museum. It was purchased by Harry Bass from the Eliasberg sale in October 1982, and when it next becomes available, it will shatter all prices records for a gold coin from the San Francisco mint.

As far as collecting this series goes, it is short-lived and fairly easy to complete with just four issues (not including, of course, the unique 1870-S). For $30,000 or so, a nice AU set could be assembled. An Uncirculated set is possible, but it would be very challenging, especially if the collector is careful to avoid coins graded MS60 and MS61 which are debatable as to their “newness.”

Liberty Head Half Eagles

a. No Motto, 1854-1866

The thirteen coin San Francisco No Motto Liberty Head half eagle is a very challenging set. Only one or two coins (the 1856-S and 1857-S) are reasonably easy to find in collector grades and every date in this series is, at the very least, rare to extremely rare in the higher AU grades.

The kingpin of this set, and arguably the most valuable gold coin ever struck at this mint is the 1854-S. Only 268 were made, and just three are known today with one in the Smithsonian Institution and the others in private collections. The finest of the three is the Eliasberg coin, currently owned by a Texas collector, which could bring $4-5 million or more if offered for sale today.

The next rarest No Motto half eagle from this mint is the 1864-S of which an estimated 30 or so are known including one gem PCGS MS65+ example which is ex Norweb/Bass.

Many of the San Francisco No Motto half eagles are either unknown or unique in Uncirculated, and even the reasonably common 1856-S and 1857-S are very rare in Uncirculated with just three or four known for the former and seven to nine for the latter.

For many years, demand for the rare No Motto half eagles from San Francisco languished. This was due to a combination of factors including conspicuous overgrading of available coins by the services, the lack of published references, inflated values in published price guides, and more.

Around three or four years ago, No Motto half eagles from San Francisco became more popular. Interestingly, prices rose from the bottom up. I began noticing coins like 1858-S half eagles in VF25 and 1860-S half eagles in VF30 selling for very strong prices at auction, especially if they were in PCGS holders, choice and original for the grade, and eye appealing for the issues. Coin like 1858-S or 1860-S half eagles graded AU55 haven’t quite shown this level of appreciation, but this tends to be because most of the coins of this caliber are not CAC quality.

b. With Motto, 1866-1888, 1892-1906

The With Motto half eagles from San Francisco can basically be divided into two distinct groups: the rare (and mostly) interesting issues from 1866 to 1876 and the available (and mostly) uninteresting issues from 1877 to 1906.

The motto IN GOD WE TRUST was added to the reverse of the half eagle denomination in 1866 but no before dual varieties were produced at the San Francisco mint. 9,000 of the No Motto half eagles were struck compared to 34,000 of the With Motto coons and the latter are more available.

My favorite “sleeper” date from this era is the 1867-S which is rarer than its mintage of 29,000 would suggest. There are only 60-80 known in all grades, and I have never seen one above AU55. Despite this issue’s obvious scarcity, it is affordable and I recently sold a pleasing PCGS EF45 for just a hair over $3,000.

The 1876-S is the single rarest With Motto half eagle from this mint. Only 4,000 were produced and this date is not often seen above AU50. It is unique in Uncirculated with the Garrett coin having been graded MS64 by PCGS; nothing else known comes close.

Beginning in 1877, mintage figures increase for half eagles from San Francisco and by the end of the 1880’s, they sometimes exceed 1,000,000 coins. Many of the San Francisco half eagles from the 1880’s, 1890’s and early 1900’s exist in significant quantity in grades up to MS64 and the high mintage 1901-S is common even in Gem Uncirculated.

The “sleeper” issue for the late dates from San Francisco is the 1894-S. It has a much lower mintage than the other post-1878 dates. This date is not often seen above MS62 although an amazing NGC MS69 (ex Clapp/Eliasberg) is known; it recently sold for $176,250.

The With Motto half eagles from this mint are not as popular with collectors as the No Motto issues. This means that there are some great values in this sub-set, especially in the 1867-1876 date range. The later dates are currently of interest primarily to type collectors but it is certainly possible that they may receive more focus from date collectors in the future.

Indian Head Half Eagles (1908-1916)

The attractive incuse Indian Head design was created by Bela Lyon Pratt and it was used on both the quarter eagle and half eagle denomination. The San Francisco mint produced half eagles using this design from 1908 through 1916.

There are no great rarities in the nine-coin Indian Head half eagle set from San Francisco, unlike the eagles and double eagles from this era. All of the San Francisco issues of this type can be easily found in AU grades and even in the lower Mint State range at reasonably affordable prices. These issues tend to become scarcer (and expensive) in the MS63 to MS64 range and nearly all are very rare in MS65.

Indian Head half eagles tend to be collected in one of two ways: in affordable AU58 to MS62 grades or in challenging MS64 to MS66 grades. In the case of the former, the San Francisco specialist will have an easy time. In the case of the latter, he will be greatly challenged as dates like the 1913-S and 1915-S are extremely rare in Gem.

Liberty Head Eagles

a. No Motto, 1854-1866

Unlike its quarter eagle and half eagle counterparts, the Liberty Head eagle series contains no stoppers like the 1854-S from both denominations. That said, the No Motto eagles from San Francisco contain many very dates and one—the 1864-S—which has finally been recognized as a truly rare issue.

The 1854-S eagle is an interesting issue as it has a comparatively high mintage of 123,826 and it is rather easy to locate in EF and lower AU grades. The real “sleeper” among the early San Francisco eagles is the 1855-S with a mintage of just 9,000. This date is unknown in Uncirculated and very rare in AU. Other early dates from this mint which are rare to very rare include the 1859-S and the 1860-S.

I mentioned the 1864-S eagle in the opening paragraph of this section and I think some more comments are in order about this date. Of the 2,500 struck, there are likely no more than 25-30 known. For close to a decade, most of the available specimens were sold to one collector and now that his collection is being sold, price records for this date are being shattered. Heritage recently sold a PCGS EF45 for $117,500 and it is likely that this price will be eclipsed if a nicer example is made available in the coming months.

Despite the great fanfare that the 1864-S eagle has recently received, other rare issues in this series remain fairly priced. I am a big fan of the 1860-S but I like the Civil War issues as well. With the exception of the 1854-S, 1856-S and 1857-S, virtually all of these No Motto issues are nearly unobtainable above AU50, especially with original color and choice surfaces.

b. With Motto (1866-1889, 1892-1903, 1904-1907)

As with the half eagles from this mint, there are two distinct rarity profiles for San Francisco With Motto eagles. The coins struck from 1866 through 1878 tend to be very scarce to rare in all grades and virtually impossible to find in Uncirculated. while the post-1878 dates were struck in greater quantities and are much more available. In fact, the 1901-S has the highest mintage figure of any Liberty Head eagle and it is the single most available date of this type to locate in MS65 to MS66 grades.

The top “sleeper” dates in the With Motto series? In the earlier dates, I like the 1870-S and the 1876-S (although this second date is not really a secret any longer) and in the later dates, I like the 1894-S and 1895-S; two issues which are very scarce in Uncirculated.

It is feasible to collect the With Motto San Francisco eagles by date as there are no stoppers and many of the later issues can be found in comparatively high grades. While this type hasn’t really been much collected by date, perhaps the discovery of some interesting With Motto San Francisco eagles in the Saddle Ridge Hoard might spur interest.

Indian Head Eagles (1908-1916, 1920 and 1930)

Augustus St. Gaudens’ Indian Head design was introduced on the eagle denomination in 1907, but the first San Francisco coins were not struck until 1908. They were produced without interruption through 1916, then in 1920 and 1930.

The two rarest San Francisco issues of this type are the 1920-S and 1930-S. Both were heavily melted and didn’t see much in the way of circulation. The 1920-S is the rarer of the two and it is extremely rare in higher grades. The finest known is the famous PCGS MS67 from the Duckor collection that realized $1,725,000 in March 2007. The finest known 1930-S is also graded MS67 by PCGS and it realized $299,000 in a January 2009 auction.

A date which is not as well-known is the 1913-S. This is the true “condition rarity” among San Francisco eagles of this design. It is only moderately scarce in the lowest Uncirculated grades but it is rare in MS63, and Gems are extremely rare. The finest known is an NGC MS67 (formerly graded MS66 by PCGS) which brought $299,000 in 2009, and $287,500 in 2007.

A Gem set of San Francisco Indian Head eagles would be extremely difficult to complete and very expensive as well. A set in MS63 to MS64 (with a few Gems included) is more feasible, but certainly not an easy accomplishment.

Liberty Head Double Eagles

a. Type One, No Motto (1854-1866)

For a variety of reasons, Type One Liberty Head double eagles are the single most avidly collected series of gold coins from the San Francisco mint. These coins are big, they can be found in relatively high grades, they are affordable, and only two issues—the 1861-S Paquet and the 1866-S No Motto—are hard to locate.

The first year of issue, the 1854-S, is a curious coin. It is reasonably available in higher grades but nearly every known example has matte surfaces from exposure to seawater. High-grade examples with original surfaces are extremely rare.

Many dates of this type are plentiful in Uncirculated due to shipwrecks such as the S.S. Central America, S.S. Brother Jonathan, and the S.S. Republic. Nearly every serious collector has seen or may even own a nice Uncirculated 1857-S double eagle from the Central America. There were thousands of choice to gem examples of this date, and they spurred considerable interest in other San Francisco double eagles and shipwrecks coinage in particular.

The rarest Type One double eagle from this mint is the 1861-S Paquet Reverse. A total of 19,250 were struck but most were melted and an estimated 100 or so are known today, mostly in EF40 to AU50. This issue is unknown in Uncirculated, and most seen have very heavily abraded surfaces, poor luster and negative eye appeal.

Another interesting variety is the 1866-S No Motto. 120,000 were struck before orders were received to changeover to the new With Motto reverse. Many were melted but this variety has lately become very popular with collectors. A PCGS MS62+ from the Saddle Ridge Hoard is the new finest known and this is likely to be the single most highly valued and sought-after coin from this treasure.

Type One doubles from San Francisco are popularly collected by date. With the exception of the 1854-S, 1861-S Paquet, and 1866-S No Motto, all eleven coins can be obtained in nice AU grades for four figure prices. This set could not be completed in Uncirculated due to the current status of the Paquet and most high-budget collectors “settle” for an AU55 or AU58 example.

b. Type Two, With Motto (1866-1876)

The 11 coin set of Type Two Liberty Head double eagles is very popular as well and, unlike the Type One series mentioned above, it can be completed in Uncirculated grades. The two rarest San Francisco Type Two issues in higher grades are the 1866-S With Motto and the 1867-S. Both of these are seldom seen above MS60 to MS61 and are characterized by heavily abraded surfaces and soft strikes.

A few of the Type Two San Francisco issues are relatively plentiful in MS62 to MS63 and, as a result, they are popular with type collectors. These include the 1875-S and the 1876-S.

The “sleeper” date of this type is the 1873-S Closed 3 which is an issue almost never seen above MS60 to MS61.

c. Type Three, With Motto and value spelled TWENTY DOLLARS (1877-1885, 1887-1907)

Type Three San Francisco issues are typically divided into two groups: those from 1877 to 1881 which are condition rarities and the later issues which tend to be far more available, even in higher grades.

The 1877-S through 1881-S double eagles are all extremely scarce above MS62 and mostly unknown (at least until the discovery of some exceptional pieces in the Saddle Ridge hoard) in Gem Uncirculated. These dates tend to be extremely abraded hence the reason most are graded AU58 to MS61 by the services.

The Type Three double eagles from 1882 onwards are found a bit more often in MS63 and even MS64 grades but nearly all dates are rare to very rare in MS65.

This is an easily completable series which should see the most immediate benefit from the Saddle Ridge Hoard due to the fact that most of the coins in this 1,400+ piece group were of this type. Some dates, such as the 1889-S and 1890-S, are suddenly far more available in MS64 and MS65 than before as a result of discoveries from the hoard but these coins are likely to be quickly absorbed into the market.

St. Gaudens With Motto (1908-1911, 1913-1916, 1920, 1922, 1924-27, 1930)

The beloved St. Gaudens double eagle was produced in huge quantities at the San Francisco mint. Dates range from very common to very rare.

The San Francisco double eagles which are hard to find are rare as a result of heavy meltings. As an example, there were 558,000 double eagles made at this mint in 1920 but the survival rate is low and today the 1920-S is represented by fewer than 300 coins. In Gem, this date is extremely rare with probably no more than four or five known.

The single rarest St. Gaudens double eagle from this mint is the 1930-S. It has the lowest mintage of any date from San Francisco except for the 1908-S (which was saved as a first year of issue) and around 125-150 are known, mostly in the MS62 to MS64 range.

Collectors don’t typically specialize in San Francisco Saints as they tend to focus on either the whole series if they have big ambitions, or they dabble in the series with occasional forays into the higher grade type coin realm and/or slightly better dates.

So there you have it. In around 4,000 words an encapsulation of the various types and designs of San Francisco gold coinage, with pieces ranging from super common to exceedingly rare (and even in the case of the 1870-S $3.00, unique).

I personally feel that the future for better quality gold coins from this mint is rosy. I’ve seen a strong influx of new collectors into this area of the market, and prices have risen accordingly. But there are many undervalued, sleeper issues that are as good a value as anything in the U.S. gold coin market.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard: Some Thoughts

Unless you spent the last two weeks in deep space you have no doubt read about/discussed/dreamt about the fabulous Saddle Ridge hoard. Enough has already been written about the background of this hoard that I won’t repeat it here. (NBC News, BBC, CNN, Yahoo, etc.) The scope of this find has truly captured the fancy of the collecting and non-collecting public alike, and I have been asked about the coins dozens of times; from people ranging from good clients to my doctor to my barista who chatted  me up about the “stolen coins” while making me a pour over macchiato today at my local coffee joint. This is a story with legs.

What I find fascinating about this story is that it is the first great “treasure “ to be found in the day of Web 2.0. When the lost 1913 Nickel was rediscovered a few years ago, it certainly made the rounds on the web, but stayed mainly in numismatic circles. And when the greatest find of them all, the S.S. Central America, was discovered oh so many years ago, there wasn’t even an internet around for the story to go viral; it had to build its momentum over the course of months; not moments.

As I mentioned above, I have been asked a lot of questions about these coins; enough so that I thought it made sense to blog about them so I could just say “read my blog” the next time someone asks me the following.

Here are some thoughts about the Saddle Ridge hoard that I’d like to share.

1. As I mentioned above this is the first truly viral story involving numismatics and the all new (and not necessarily improved) interwebs.

Much of the information I read online about the source and origin of the coins was seemingly invented by reporters who never bothered to check their source(s), and some blatantly wrong numismatic information was written by “news” sources who should have known better. Stolen coins…uh, I don’t think so. Special presentation piece made to commemorate the death of President Lincoln…? Nope.

Wrong information aside, the coins provided the gold coin market was the type of exposure you’d have to spend millions of dollars to generate. It was a true viral buzz and any coin story that doesn’t involve a Long Island telemarketer swindling a little old lady for her life savings is a good story in my book.

2. I’ve known Don Kagin for a long time (he tried to hire me a billion years ago when I was a high school student) and I was glad to see this deal being handled by a firm that is both reputable and knowledgeable.

Often times, deals like this wind up with the wrong people. This time it didn’t.

David McCarthy, the senior numismatist at Kagin’s, is a close friend of mine and he deserves kudos for a host of reasons: treating the owners fairly, properly conserving the coins, making savvy marketing decisions, and just generally doing the right thing. David is one of the good guys in the business and I am really happy for him and his 15+++ minutes of fame. And damn if he didn’t clean up nicely for TV. (Sadly the Good Morning America clip is not currently available online, but CoinWeek has a nice short piece on YouTube.)

3. When I first read that much of the deal was going to be sold online at Amazon.com my first reaction was “wow, that’s ballsy.” My next reaction was “wow, that’s incredibly smart.”

Amazon.com has flirted with entering the coin market before, but for a number of reasons they couldn’t find the best way to enter the market. So why not enter the market with a deal worth millions of dollars and with scads of good publicity?

But this deal could really be win-win for the owners and for Amazon. With all the publicity these coins have garnered, they are clearly worth a premium. Who better to possibly reach the ultimate audience of non-collectors who might be willing to pay the sort of premium which might (or might not) seem too high to dyed-in-the-wool collectors than a company who gets more traffic every minute than I probably do in a month? Well, you might say, the traffic you get is more established and (most) everyone on the raregoldcoins.com site is a likely buyer. But as the owners of the coins - wouldn't you rather have them exposed to millions and millions of people worldwide than an audience of a few thousand established collectors? And if doesn’t work on Amazon? The coins are still great and still can be sold through more established numismatic channels. If Amazon does well and becomes a player in the coin market, it’s great for everyone. If it doesn’t work? No harm, no foul…

4. As the World’s Most Jaded Coin Dealer (OK, maybe not the most jaded but certainly in medal contention) it takes a lot to get me excited.

When I heard that the coins were going to be on display at the Atlanta show I was skeptical. Would they be bright, shiny, and obviously conserved? Would PCGS get carried away with the grading ? Would the coins themselves mostly be common date double eagles in slightly uncommon grades?

The 50 or so coins that were on display at the show were impressive to say the least. Many were the best examples of their specific issue that I have ever seen, and they look fresh and original; not overly conserved. I think PCGS did a nice job grading them and I really liked the special gold labels which PCGS prepared for the coins. I arrived expecting to be unimpressed and left impressed. And my guess is that most collectors are going to feel the same; at least with the top 10-20% of the coins in the hoard; I can’t speak for the remaining examples.

5. How will the Saddle Ridge coins affect the market?

Ah…the $10 million dollar question. Since the majority of the coins were Type Two and Type Three double eagles from San Francisco, the scope of the hoard is narrow and series specific.  I haven’t seen a list of all the coins, but I assume that the majority of them are dated in the mid to late 1870’s and the 1880’s. One area that will be greatly impacted are slightly better date SF Type Threes, like an 1887-S or an 1888-S. If there are 100 MS63 1887-S double eagles, this date could drop in value by 20-50% . And the biggest loser is likely to be the guy who owns the current finest known 1877-S or 1879-S (to pick two random dates) who might see his $50,000+ population one/none better coin become a population two/one better coin.

The Condition Census and Finest Known coins could easily be absorbed by the market as long as they are fairly priced. From some of the preliminary numbers I’ve seen thrown around (such as “a million dollars” for the new finest known 1866-S No Motto) it feels that the asking prices might be extremely aggressive. If the coins are priced “right,” they will sell easily. My guess is that these are not the coins that will be sold on Amazon and will, instead, be offered via private treaty by Kagin’s and/or other specialist dealers or via auction.

The market for San Francisco gold coins has heated up in recent years after near-permanent dormancy. The Saddle Ridge hoard can only do good things to this area of the market. Will it make an 1859-S half eagle in AU50 more valuable? Not directly, but it will focus more attention on SF gold and it is likely that a few deep-pocketed new collectors who buy a Saddle Ridge knick-knack will be compelled to focus on other gold coins from this mint. The Type One double eagle market back in the 1990’s was jumpstarted by the availability of the SS Central America 1857-S double eagles and this market has been in hyper-demand ever since.

6. What sort of premium are these coins worth?

My gut feeling is that a less expensive (sub-$5,000) SF Type Three double eagle in average Uncirculated grades is going to have an ultimate premium of 10-30% for its saddle Ridge provenance. I would assume the original premium will be much higher and, as with the SSCA double eagles, it will evaporate over the first few years only to come back as the coins are absorbed. The numismatically significant five figure coins probably won’t be accorded a big premium.  The finest known 1877-S double eagle is a valuable, desirable coin but it won’t be worth an extra $5,000 or $10,000 because it is from this hoard.

One thing that will be interesting to see is how the collectors who focus on shipwreck coins view this hoard. As an example, “unique” coins from the S.S. Central America (i.e., coins which were one of a kind from the shipwreck) now bring a huge premium due to their collectability; something which was not the case even six or eight years ago. What sort of premium will the only Dahlonega half eagle from this hoard be accorded?  My guess is that the premium will be quite significant, and that these coins will be collected alongside the S.S.Central America, Brother Jonathan and S.S. Republic shipwreck coins.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard is certainly a topic which could be discussed endlessly, and I have the feeling that this is not the last time you will read a DWN Blog on the subject. I look forward to your comments and, hopefully, to selling a few of the neater coins from this group later in the year.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The Ten Most Marketable New Orleans Gold Coins

I’m basically an old school coin dealer. I market coins all the time but am not really a “marketer” in the numismatic sense of the word—although I deal with firms which are marketers. These companies are always looking for angles and if there is one thing I am pretty cognizant of its coin angles.

So as a coin dealer who handles a lot of New Orleans gold coins, I thought it would be fun to put together a list of the ten most marketable gold issues from this mint.

Notice, I didn’t say the ten rarest New Orleans gold coins. Nor did I say the ten most expensive. This list is about coins which are easy to sell and fun to collect. These are coins with multiple levels of demand, and the sort of coins which are easily understood by beginning and advanced collectors alike. These are coins which the purist might call “overvalued” but the marketing-savvy dealer knows are great sellers in nearly any grade.

Without further ado, the list.

1. 1849-O Gold Dollar

This is a first-year of issue and it is interesting for a variety of reasons. The Type One gold dollars from New Orleans were made for just five years, and only one date (the 1850-O) is remotely scarce. It is a great set to collect and it is one which the collector of average means can complete in comparatively high grades (MS62 and above).

The 1849-O dollar is very easy to locate in circulated grades, and a presentable AU example can be had for less than $1,000. In the lower MS grades, the 1849-O can be found with some degree of frequency, and even MS63 examples are not terribly rare or expensive with average quality specimens currently selling in the $3,250-4,250 range. In MS64, this date becomes scarce and the collector can expect to pay at least $5,000 for a decent example. In MS65, this is a very rare coin with just three or four known. The last to appear at auction was a PCGS example that brought a very strong $29,900 in Heritage’s 10/11 sale.

It would be hard to accumulate a substantial number of 1849-O dollars in grades above MS62 but it is likely that a decent position of AU58 to MS62 coins could be assembled.

2. 1855-O Gold Dollar

The 1855-O gold dollar has been a favorite of mine for many years. It has two great things going for it: it is a distinct one-year type, and it is the only New Orleans gold dollar struck which uses the short-lived, popular Type Two design (made only from 1854 to 1856). A total of 55,000 were made, and it is not really a rare coin but it is extremely popular and become g harder to find every year.

The 1855-O dollar is most readily available in EF and AU grades. It becomes scarce in the AU55 to AU58 range, although it is available at most major shows or auctions. In Uncirculated, it has become a very hard coin to find with most in the MS60 to MS62 range. It is very rare in properly graded MS63, and it is essentially unknown above this. The popularity of this issue is apparent in its surge in price over the five+ years. In 2008, I can remember selling average quality AU58’s for around $3,000 and choice examples for closer to $4,000. Today, an average quality AU58 will cost more like $4,250-4,500 and a choice coin with CAC approval might bring as much as $5,500-6,000.

It would be challenging to accumulate a quantity of 1855-O gold dollars although a group ranging in grade from EF45 to AU55 could likely be assembled. The number of 1855-O gold dollars in Mint State that have been graded appears plentiful according to PCGS and NGC - statistics but this is misleading due to resubmissions and coins placed in long-term collections. I have only handled four Uncirculated 1855-O gold dollars in the last two years (two in MS61 and one each in MS62 and MS63), and even if I wasn’t the picky buyer I am, I doubt whether more than three to five could be found in a year’s time.

3. 1839-O Quarter Eagle

This is another of my favorite New Orleans gold coins. It is extremely popular and there are a number of great factors which make it so: it is a one-year type, it is a first year of issue, and it is the only New Orleans gold coin with the mintmark placed on the obverse. And one more thing…can you say “first gold coin of any denomination struck at the New Orleans mint?”

The comments that I made above for the 1855-O gold dollar apply (mostly) to the 1839-O quarter eagle. The mintage for this issue is much lower (17,781) but the survival rate is reasonably high with VF and EF coins available from time to time. In AU, the 1839-O is moderately scarce and it is rare in Uncirculated with most in the MS60 to MS61 range. In MS62 and above, this issue is quite rare.

The price performance for this issue rivals or exceeds that for the 1855-O gold dollar. In 2008, I would routinely sell an AU55 in the $4,000-4,500 range. Today, a nice CAC quality AU55 will bring close to $6,000.

This is another issue which might be hard to stockpile for a promotion unless a wide range of grades was acceptable. I’ve seen the availability of this issue really dry up in the last two or three years, and I’ve gone from almost always having a nice 1839-O in stock to now having one every three or four months.

4. 1845-O Quarter Eagle

This is hands-down the rarest coin on this list and it is an unlikely candidate for promotion, but I’m going to include it anyway. What makes this coin so interesting is its low mintage (only 4,000 were struck) and its relative affordability. (More on this in a second…)

There may be as few as 100-125 known in all grades which, obviously, makes this a hard issue to corner the market on. That said, it is a date that I handle on a reasonably regular basis. As a marketer, I’d think about this as a White Whale issue which is the key to the Liberty Head quarter eagle set; a short-lived and very completable run of 13-14 coins which should be more actively collected by date.

The 1845-O has increased in value over the past few years at the same pace as many of the other popular issues mentioned in this article. A presentable EF example can still be had in the $2,500-3,000 which I feel is one of the great values in all of New Orleans gold. AU examples, which are available more often due to gradeflation, can cost as much as $12,500-15,000 for a choice 58 coin and are hardly what I would call promotable.

If I were marketing New Orleans gold, I would put away every single 1845-O quarter eagle I could find, promote the hell out of the more common quarter eagles, and then sell these coins as “set finishers.” As I mentioned above, this is a set with potential and one with a number of great values at current levels.

5. 1854-O Three Dollar Gold

This is an issue which is absolutely ideal for marketing purposes. It has a great story (it is a one year type and it is the only three dollar gold piece ever made at the New Orleans mint), it is reasonably plentiful (especially in comparison to other issues mentioned in this article), and it is actually fairly affordable with decent quality examples still available in the $3,000-6,000 range.

The 1854-O three dollar has a reasonably low mintage of 24,000. As with its counterpart the 1854-D, this issue is more available than one might assume, and there are hundreds known in the EF and lower AU grades. The 1854-O becomes scarce in properly graded AU55 to AU58, and it is very rare in Uncirculated with fewer than ten known.

Three dollar gold pieces have been out of favor for close to a decade, and this has tended to drag down prices on the 1854-O. Another factor is grading: many examples are conspicuously overgraded and few are choice and original. But I think at current price levels, nice 1854-O three dollar gold piece are a bargain and they could increase nicely if properly marketed.

Could a savvy marketer stash away a decent amount of these? Probably so and certainly with less effort than, say, an 1845-O quarter eagle. Put me down as someone who would love to jump-start the market for this interesting issue!

6. 1840-O Half Eagle

In the last few years this issue’s counterparts, the 1839-C and 1839-D half eagles, have seen huge price increases. The 1840-O is also a first-year-of-issue coin but, unlike the 1839-C and 1839-D, it isn’t a one year type. And, most importantly, unlike the other two southern half eagles, it is still highly undervalued and much overlooked.

The obvious problem with marketing 1840-O half eagles is availability, especially in high grades. The 1840-O is a truly rare coin but it is not offered for sale with a great degree of frequency. A quick perusal of auction records over the last decade shows an average of four or five 1840-O half eagles per year available for sale. I have handled seven in the last two to three years. So unless a marketer got lucky, it would be very frustrating to try and include this date as a key item.

And yet…this is such a perfect coin to promote. It’s the first half eagle from this mint, it is reasonably affordable (a decent AU can be had for $2,000-4,000) and it is scarcer than the higher priced 1840-C and 1840-D half eagles.

Like I said, for the promoter, the 1840-O half eagle is probably a pipe dream. But that doesn’t keep me from putting it on my list of the ten most promotable gold issues from this mint.

7. With Motto Half Eagles (1893-O and 1894-O)

The No Motto half eagles design was made at the New Orleans mint through 1857 and it was then discontinued. It was not resumed until 1892 and then for just three years. The 1892-O is a very scarce issue and way too hard to promote, but the 1893-O and 1894-O are more available.

The 1893-O is the more common of these two dates with an original mintage of 110,000. It is fairly easy to find in circulated grades and available from time to time in MS60 to MS62. Nice circulated 1893-O half eagles can still be found for around $1,000 while a very presentable Uncirculated coin is available for around $2,000.

The 1894-O is more of a challenge. Only 16,600 were made and this issue is hard to find in Uncirculated although it is available in decent quantities in AU grades.

These issues are instantly promotable as short-lived representatives of the With Motto type. Pairing the 1893-O and 1894-O in AU and lower Uncirculated grades is certainly feasible. An ambitious project would be to add an 1892-O (generally priced in the $4,000-6,000+ range) and form a complete three-coin With Motto set.

8. 1909-O Half Eagle

This is probably the most obvious coin to put on this list, and it is an issue which has been subject to a number of promotions in the past. The 1909-O is a distinct one-year type coin which is immediately recognizable as the only Indian Head half eagle from New Orleans. In addition to being a one-year type, it is also a last year issue (how cool would a set of first year/last year half eagles be with an example of an 1840-O and a 1909-O?).

The 1909-O half eagle is one of the ultimate condition rarities. A total of 34,200 were made and from the pattern of grade distribution which exists for this date, it is plain to see that it did see a good deal of local circulation. Most 1909-O half eagles are seen in EF45 to AU55 grades and properly graded AU58’s are scarce. In Uncirculated, the 1909-O is very scarce with most seen in the MS60 to MS61 range. In MS62 and above, this issue is very rare. The finest known is a PCGS MS66 which I recently purchased in the 2014 Heritage FUN auction for $646,250 and immediately sold to a collector who is assembling the finest all-time set of New Orleans gold.

The great story and comparable availability of this coin make it perfect to promote. It is not an inexpensive coin with average quality examples typically selling in the $8,000-15,000 range. But it is possible to accumulate a decent position (although it is likely that any new promotion would run up against existing promotions creating a battle for the supply).

9. With Motto Liberty Head Eagles in Mint State

The With Motto design eagle was first struck in New Orleans in 1879. This issue is very rare and the next issues (1880-0, 1881-O, 1882-O and 1883-O) range from scarce to very rare. After a brief hiatus, production resumed in 1888 and during the next two decades, a total of 11 different New Orleans eagles were struck. The mintage figures for these dates weren’t that high but many issues were shipped overseas and now exist in reasonable quantities.

For a marketer, there are some interesting options with these later date New Orleans eagles. On a single coin basis, they are affordable (lower quality Mint State coins can be had for less than $1,500 each) and they have a relatively small premium when compared to more common “generics” of this era. I have personally assembled a number of 11 coin sets of New Orleans Liberty Head eagles from 1888 through 1906 in MS61 and MS62 grade and I can think of few other affordable collections of gold coins which can be completed this easily yet offer as much satisfaction for the owner.

Three issues (1901-O, 1903-O and 1904-O) can even be found in MS63 with comparable frequency and they are not only reasonably affordable (typically in the $2,500-3,000) range, they have dropped in price over the last five years and have become more available due to lack of demand. At one point in time, a coin such as a 1901-O eagle in MS63 sold for around four times the price of a common date 1901-S in this grade. Today, this ratio is more like three to one and I think the 1901-O in MS63 is great value as a high grade, affordable With Motto eagle from this mint.

10. Type One Double Eagles (1850-O, 1851-O, and 1852-O)

Few gold coins from New Orleans have shown as much price appreciation as Type One double eagles. This means that most of the issues from this dozen coin group are priced well into five figures; some, like the 1854-O and 1856-O are six figure coins. This leaves the first three issues, the 1850-O, 1851-O and 1852-O, as the most affordable and the only ones with some potential to be marketed.

To me, the neatest of the three issues is the 1850-O and for obvious reasons: it is the very first double eagle made at this mint. Of the three, it is the scarcest and it is quite rare in AU55 and above. I would think that it would be possible to accumulate a small position of these in EF grades but it is not likely to find more than a few in the lower AU range. The 1851-O and 1852-O are seen from time to time in EF and a nice example is now priced in the $4,000-6,000+ range.

In my experience, Type One double eagles from New Orleans are extremely popular and very easy to sell. They are the largest coins from this mint and among the most “valuable.” This makes them in demand with both new collectors and savvy, long-term specialists. As recently as five years ago, you could find these coins in enough quantity to justify a promotion; today, this is probably not as likely but it is certainly an interesting proposition.

For coin marketers, there are few coins with as many “slam dunks” as the gold issues from New Orleans. These are coins with great stories: one year types, low mintage pieces, coins with Civil War connections, etc. Some of these coins are no doubt being accumulated even as you read this for possible future promotions. Others are being avidly collected by an ever-growing cadre of specialists.

If you have any questions about New Orleans gold coins, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Can Coin Dealers be Coin Collectors?

A recent question from a client got me thinking: is it possible for a coin dealer to be a coin collector? My answer short and sweet: certainly yes — but with a large asterisk.

In most collectibles fields, many of the greatest collections ever formed were by dealers. This is especially true in the art world where the line between what is a “collection” and what is “inventory” is blurry; certainly far more so than in the world of coins.

Focusing on coins, I’d say that you want to buy from someone who is a coin weenie; someone who loves coins every bit as much as you do. I know I admire those dealers who really love coins more than those for whom numismatics is just a business, and who don’t really care that one 1845-O quarter eagle is choice and original while another is abraded and processed.

In the 19^th and early 20^th century, many of the most prominent U.S. dealers were collectors as well. Lyman Low, John Haseltine, David Proskey, Ed. Frossard, M.H. Bolender, Al Overton, and others assembled great specialized collections which were sold during their lifetimes and for which they are remembered even today.

Numismatics has evolved from an esoteric hobby into a big multi-national business since World War II, and for every post-war dealer like John Ford or David Akers who owned great coins, there are dealers who either do not care to collect or who do not want to be placed in a position where they are competing with their clients.

Let me give you an example. I recently bought a beautiful PCGS AU58 1846-O half eagle. This is exactly the type of coin I’d put away if I were a collector. So here was my predicament: do I keep the coin or sell it to any one of the dozen or so collectors who I work with on Liberty Head half eagle or New Orleans gold collections? I agonized for a second or two and quickly decided to sell the coin to a good collector. It was a simple; I’m a coin dealer not a coin collector. And here is another conundrum: if I were putting together a set of Liberty Head half eagles and I needed an 1846-O, why would I sell such a coin as perfect as the aforementioned example to a “competitor?”

But I still want to collect, and I’m not going to be relegated to something totally out of numismatics in order to escape potential conflicts of interest. My solution is pretty simple: I collect paper money, coin books, cool numismatic knick-knacks, and silver coins that do not typically appear in my inventory. Once or twice a year I do buy a gold coin for myself that is so unusual (from the standpoint of appearance) or so undervalued that I put it away. Such coins usually stay in my safe deposit box for a year or two until I have a client who I feel will appreciate the coin (and will sell it back to me when he tires of it) or if the market has risen enough to motivate me to take my profit (in the case of a Civil War eagle I recently sold).

So that’s my answer. A coin dealer should be a coin collector, just not in the area in which he specializes. Your thoughts?

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Liberty Head Eagles and The Condition Census: Part One

I have written extensively about the Condition Census as it applies to United States gold coins: what it is, its origin and significance and specific examples of issues and a listing of the Condition Census. I recently had an interesting conversation with an advanced collector about his holdings, and he mentioned to me that there were specific instances where he owned virtually the entire Condition Census for the denomination in which he specialized. This was not some idle boast; what he said was true and it inspired me to think about writing a series of articles which focus on Condition Census listings.

The first denomination that I’m going to focus on is Liberty Head eagles. This is a series which has gone from overlooked to in demand in a reasonably short period of time. As recently as four or five years ago, I can remember offering unquestionable Condition Census examples of more obscure (i.e., Philadelphia and San Francisco) issues for very reasonable sums and having them sit on my website for weeks before they sold. Today, when I get such coins in—which is not very often—they sell almost immediately and typically with multiple orders.

Before I begin, there is a major caveat to discuss which concern not only the Condition Census but any study that deals with rankings of coins in regards to their appearance. Just because the plastic that encases a coin says that it grades, for example, MS62, this doesn’t mean it’s “better” than another example of the same date that grades MS61, MS60 or even AU58. When I say that in order to qualify as a Condition Census example a coin must grade in the AU55 to AU58 range, this is making an assumption that the coin in question is choice, original and eye appealing.

1. No Motto, 1838 to 1866

1838:  There are at least four to six known in Uncirculated so, in theory, an 1838 eagle would have to grade at least MS60 to MS61 to qualify as a Condition Census example. However, I might include a really choice AU58 as well.

1839 Head of 1838:  This variety is more common in Uncirculated than sometimes realized with probably over 10 known. To qualify as a Condition Census example a coin would have to grade MS61 to MS62.

1839 Head of 1840:  This variety is extremely rare in higher grade and I am aware of just two in Uncirculated. A nice AU55 would easily qualify as Condition Census.

1840:  The 1840 eagle is common in lower AU grades but rare in AU58 and extremely rare in full Mint State with just four or five known. An MS60 is easily in the Condition Census

1841:  There are five or six Uncirculated examples of this date. I would regard any 1841 eagle which grades MS60 or better as Condition Census.

1841-O:  This very rare date is unknown in Uncirculated and exceedingly rare above AU55. A choice, original AU53 to AU55 is easily in the Condition Census for the issue.

1842 Small Date:  This is the rarer of the two varieties for the year. Three or four exist in Uncirculated meaning that a properly graded AU58 is in the Condition Census.

1842 Large Date:  With just five or six known in Uncirculated this variety is rare in high grades as well. I would give the cut-off for Condition Census inclusion as MS60 to MS61.

1842-O:  The 1842-O is a very rare coin in high grades with an estimated four or five in Uncirculated. A choice, original AU58 is in the Condition Census.

1843:  The 1843 is a lightly regarded issue but it is exceedingly rare in Uncirculated with just two or three known. Again, a properly graded AU58 is in the Condition Census.

1843-O:  There are five to six known in Uncirculated. An 1843-O eagle which grades MS60 to MS61 qualifies as Condition Census.

1844:  The 1844 is the rarest eagle from this mint struck prior to the Civil War. There are only one or two in Uncirculated and the bottom end of the Condition Census goes all the way down to AU53 to AU55.

1844-O:  An MS60 example of this date is in the Condition Census as there are maybe five to six in Uncirculated. A choice, original AU58 might qualify as well.

1845:  There are just two or three known in Uncirculated which means a nice AU58 easily qualifies as Condition Census.

1845-O:  Virtually all No Motto eagles from this mint are very rare to extremely rare in Uncirculated. Only three or four of this date exist in Mint State which means a nice AU58 is in the Condition Census.

1846:  Another extremely rare issue in Mint State with just one or two known to me. I would place a choice AU55 in the Condition Census.

1846-O:  Two or three are known in Uncirculated. A choice AU58 easily qualifies as Condition Census.

1847:  This is one of the few No Motto eagles from the 1840’s which is not extremely rare in Uncirculated and more than 20 1847’s are known in MS60 or better. To qualify in the Condition Census, an example must be MS62 and choice for the grade.

1847-O:  The 1847-O is the most common No Motto New Orleans eagle in Uncirculated with more than 10 known. I would place the cut-off for Condition Census at MS62.

1848:  This date is much scarcer in Uncirculated than the 1847 or 1849 but a few very nice MS63 to MS64 examples are known, making MS62 the level for the Condition Census.

1848-O:  There are actually as many as seven or eight known in Uncirculated including some in the MS64 to MS66 range. This makes the level for Condition Census a high MS63.

1849:  More than 20 exist in Uncirculated including some as high as MS64. A nice, original MS63 would easily qualify in the Condition Census.

1849-O:  I doubt if more than two or three are known in Uncirculated and none of these are much better than MS60 to MS61. A nice AU55 is in the Condition Census.

1850 Small Date:  This is the scarcer of the two varieties and there are just five or six known in Uncirculated. I’d put any example in MS60 or better in the Condition Census listing.

1850 Large Date:  While more available overall, this variety iss still quite rare in Mint State with maybe six to eight known. The Condition Census would include any example grading MS61 or finer.

1850-O:  This overlooked condition rarity has just one or two known in Uncirculated. A properly graded AU58 is in the Condition Census.

1851:  This date is harder to find in Mint State than other “common dates” of this era. There are probably fewer than a dozen known and an MS61 would qualify as Condition Census.

1851-O:  Around ten or so are known in Uncirculated, mostly in the MS60 to MS61 range. To be in the Condition Census, an 1851-O eagle would have to grade MS61 and be choice.

1852:  An estimated 12-15 exist in Mint State. I believe an MS62 is comfortably within the Condition Census.

1852-O:  This date is hugely rare in Uncirculated with just one or two extant. A properly graded AU55 qualifies as Condition Census.

1853:  Slightly more available than the 1852 in Uncirculated with around 15 or so known. An MS62 is in the Condition Census.

1853-O:  A very rare issue in Uncirculated with just three to five known. A choice, original AU58 is in the Condition Census.

1854:  Very rare in Uncirculated with fewer than ten known. MS61 examples are in the Condition Census.

1854-O Small Date:  This is the rarer of the two varieties and only two or threeknown in Uncirculated. I think a choice, original AU58 would qualify in the Condition Census.

1854-O Large Date:  This variety is more available in higher grades but it is still very rare in Uncirculated with just four or five known. Again, a properly graded AU58 is Condition Census.

1854-S:  The first eagle from this mint and very rare in Uncirculated with four or five known. An AU58 is Condition Census.

1855:  More than 15 are known in Uncirculated. MS62 seems to me to be the qualifying grade for Condition Census consideration.

1855-O:  Just two or three exist in Uncirculated and not many more in AU58. A properly graded AU55 would qualify.

1855-S:  This overlooked rarity n unknown in Uncirculated and exceedingly rare in AU58. The Condition Census includes any properly graded AU55.

1856:  There are 15-20 in Uncirculated with most in the MS61 to MS63 range. An MS62 is in the Condition Census.

1856-O:  There are only one or two in Uncirculated and not many in AU58. I’d include a properly graded AU55 in the Condition Census.

1856-S:  There are around a half dozen known in Uncirculated including a few as high as MS63 to MS64. Still, any properly graded MS60 or better is Condition Census.

1857:  I am aware of just two in Mint State and would place a properly graded AU58 in the Condition Census.

1857-O:  This date is unknown in Uncirculated and exceptionally rare in AU58. I would place a properly graded AU55 in the Condition Census.

1857-S:  Thanks to the SS Central America a few nice Mint State pieces exist but I would still put any properly graded MS60 or finer example in the Condition Census.

1858:  This date is probably unique in Uncirculated and the Condition Census extends down as far as AU55.

1858-O:  There are fewer than ten known in Uncirculated but this is a more available date in Uncirculated than commonly recognized. I’d place the Condition Census cut-off at around MS61.

1858-S:  Beginning with this issue, the S mint eagles become impossible to find in U;ncirculated. Condition Census is AU55 and maybe even as low as AU53 if eye appeal is given weight.

1859:  A very rare and overlooked coin in higher grades with just three or so known in Uncirculated. Condition Census is AU58 and above.

1859-O:  There is nothing close to Uncirculated known and even a nice AU53 is well within the Condition Census.

1859-S:  Unknown in Uncirculated and I’ve never seen one better than AU55. Condition Census is AU50 to AU53.

1860:  Fewer than ten exist in Uncirculated and just two or three grade above MS62. Condition Census is likely in the MS61 range.

1860-O:  As many as five or six are known in Uncirculated which means that any piece grading MS60 or above is in the Condition Census for this issue.

1860-S:  This is one of the real condition rarities in the series and I’d place even a properly graded AU50 to AU53 in the Condition Census.

1861:  This is the last date of this design type which is available in higher grades. Two to three dozen are known in Uncirculated including some nice MS63’s and MS64’s. I’d still place a properly graded MS62 in the Condition Census.

1861-S:  Unique in Uncirculated and extremely rare in the higher AU grades. Condition Census is AU55.

1862:  Unknown in Uncirculated and extremely rare in the higher AU grades although a touch more available than the other P mints of this era. I’d place a choice, high end AU55 in the Condition Census.

1862-S:  Unique in Uncirculated and exceedingly rare in AU55 and above. Condition

1863:  Another very rare date although one does exist in Uncirculated. I think Condition Census is as low as AU50 to AU53.

1863-S:  Relatively common with a whopping two to three known in Uncirculated (that’s a little coin humor, reader…). Condition Census is AU55 but a nice AU53 might qualify as well.

1864: Another date with two or three known in Uncirculated but still very rare in grades as low as AU55 to AU58. Condition Census examples grade in this range.

1864-S:  The rarest No Motto eagle; unknown in Uncirculated and exceedingly rare in Uncirculated. An AU50 is in the Condition Census and I’d suggest even a properly graded EF45 could be as well.

1865:  Unique in Uncirculated and exceedingly rare in AU55 and above. An AU53 qualifies in the Condition Census.

1865-S Normal Date:  The rarer of the two varieties and one of the keys to the series in AU. Condition Census is in the AU50 to AU53 range.

1865-S Inverted Date:  Quite rare but more available than the Normal Date. This variety is unique in Mint State. Condition Census begins around the AU53 mark.

1866-S No Motto:  Yet another issue which is unknown in Uncirculated and extremely rare in properly graded AU55 and above. Condition Census would certainly include a properly graded AU53.

So there you have it…a lot of rare coins with very few known in Uncirculated and a proposed Condition Census for each.

In the next article in this series, I will look at the slightly less interesting but still very collectible With Motto type.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

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Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Some FUN-based Market Observations

The FUN show is clearly one of the two major market indicators. Symbolically, it is the beginning of a New Coin Year but it is, most of all, a huge economic event with hundreds of millions of dollars changing hands. For me, a good FUN show is a clear indicator that the first quarter—if not half—of the coin year will be strong.

This was one of the strangest FUN shows I can recall. I was constantly busy and there were people at my table from the beginning of dealer set-up on Wednesday until I was packing up to go home on Friday afternoon. It was one of the easiest selling shows I can ever recall having, and my wholesale numbers were well above average. But it was also a hugely difficult show at which to buy. If, like me, you were a dealer who buys choice, cool, rare coins there were slim pickings at best. I was able to buy a number of great coins (some of which are now posted on my website; others never made it back from Orlando) but I knew as early as Thursday morning that I was going to fall well short of my numeric goals in terms of coins bought.

Clearly, one of the facts of life about major coin shows (FUN and ANA in particular) is that the huge auctions that surround them have a profound and significant impact. I talked to numerous well-heeled collectors who roamed the floor but stated that they were “waiting until after the auction” to make purchasing decisions. Considering that the major segment of the auction was Thursday night, this left a short window of opportunity for them to buy coins.

Heritage should be credited for producing one of the all-time great FUN auctions, and although I don’t know exactly what their final numbers were, I am assuming the FUN sale set an all-time record, given that Platinum Night alone did north of $50 million dollars.

I spent a lot of money at the Heritage auction(s) but didn’t buy a lot of coins; at least not in terms of useful, “bread and butter” coins that I could turn around and immediately place into inventory. Some of the dates that I will always try to purchase were represented by coins I just didn’t like, while other areas of the market seem to have quickly jumped to new levels with which I’m not yet comfortable.

Some observations from the auction are in order:

1. Rarity is clearly in vogue right now and even off-quality examples of truly rare issues are commanding huge premiums. As an example, an NGC EF45 1864-S brought just a shade under $100,000. And other seldom-seen eagles such as the 1863, 1873, and 1876 brought what I thought were enormous prices based on their actual quality.
2. There were a number of really exceptional coins in the auction and they brought exceptional prices, as they should have. My two personal favorites were David Akers’ personal 1826 half eagle graded MS66 by PCGS which brought $763,750 (a price which I thought was strong but not at all outrageous), and the Eliasberg Proof 1889 double eagle, graded PR65 by PCGS but in an old green holder and looking more like a PR67 Deep Cameo by today’s standards, which sold for an extremely strong $352,500.
3. Speaking of exceptional, the market for Liberty Head double eagles continues to rage on. The FUN sale had a deep offering with coins ranging from off-quality and very choice for the grade and issue. But it almost didn’t matter what the coin looked like as prices were strong across the board. Type One O mints? Very strong. CC’s? Very strong, although the nice PCGS AU50 1870-CC at $329,000 seemed like a much better value than the really unappealing PCGS EF45 at $282,000. Civil War dates? Crazy strong including a record-for-the-grade prices on the 1861-S in PCGS MS62, the 1863 in PCGS AU58, and the PCGS MS62 1864. I was taken aback by prices for the Big Five late date Type Three issues. An 1881 in PCGS AU58 sold for $111,625, an 1882 in NGC AU58 realized $94,000 and perhaps most incredibly, a tooled no grade 1886—the ultimate “what a shame” coin—brought a staggering $129,250. No grades in general did very well in this sale, by the way, but that’s another story.
4. The best values in the 19^th century series are clearly in the Liberty Head half eagle series. Prices on double eagles have made this series the playground of the 1%, and the eagle series has gone from neglected to flavor of the year (smart buys still can be made in this series but proceed with caution!). Even though there were some price records set in the FUN sale for finally-recognized date rarities such as the 1863 and 1865, there are still many dates in the $2,500-15,000 range which seem very fairly priced relative to their rarity. Given the great prices that schlocky rare date coins brought in the auction, I’d like to think that DWN-quality examples are even better values.

A few other non-auction observations, based on looking at dealer’s inventories: nice quality early gold is still in very short supply, Dahlonega gold is literally nowhere to be seen (I’m embarrassed to admit this but I came home with exactly two new D mint coins…two! From the FUN show!!! How is this possible?!?), CAC premiums are really noticeable - especially from sellers who don’t typically handle nice coins, and if I had listened to myself and bought Civil War gold coins when I predicted they’d be the Next Big Thing I’d have made myself a tidy little profit.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world's leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Which Rare Gold Coins Will Be Demand in 2014?

A few years ago, when my blog was more of a newsletter, I used to write an annual piece entitled “What’s Hot, What’s Not.” I’ve never had the heart to go back and look at these; analyzing my analysis has never had appeal. But these were popular features and I thought I would bring them back - but with a twist. Instead of pondering about what will be “hot” in 2014 and what won’t, I thought it would be more interesting to speculate on what are some potentially in-demand areas.

1. Coins Priced Below $2,500

As I write this, the market for interesting gold coins priced at $2,500 and below is extremely strong. Case(s) in point: I used to run a weekly e-mail based sale of coins I called E-Specials which were two or three interesting gold coins priced in the $750-1,250 range. I used to be able to go to a major show and buy a dozen coins like this so the E-Specials would be pre-set for a month or more. Now, I can’t find many coins like this anymore, and I’ve punted the E-Specials.

So, what qualifies as an “interesting” gold coin in this price range? From my selling experience with E-Specials, I found that the parameters that always met with selling success were: PCGS graded, CAC approved, and dated prior to 1880. The interest factor for coins in this price range was greatly improved when I offered large sized issues; i.e., eagles and double eagles.

If I had to list a few specific coins in the $1,000-2,500 price range that I feel will be in demand in 2014 and may show some appreciation as a result, I’d include the following:

• Dahlonega half eagles in EF40 and EF45. The level of demand for nice D mint half eagles is very strong now, especially if they are choice, original coins. In the last few years values have crept up from around $1,600-1,800 to around $2,200-2,500+, and I see no price resistance to even higher numbers for the right coins.

• With Motto New Orleans eagles in MS61 and MS62. I’ve written this before but if some clever marketer would quietly assemble a position in common and slightly better date With Motto (1888-1906) eagles from New Orleans, prices could go up 20-40% without anyone batting an eyelash. The possibility exists that set collecting could drive this series as no dates are rare and many are available even in MS63 and MS64.

• Low grade scarce/rare date issues.  One of the major changes in the rare date gold market in the last three to five years has been the sudden surge in demand for affordable examples of tough dates. As an example, a coin like an 1861-S eagle is too expensive in higher grades for most collectors. But a nice Fine or Very Fine can be bought for a few thousand dollars and if the coin is worn but cosmetically appealing, it has a strong level of demand that didn’t necessarily exist a few years back.

2. Coins Priced in the $5,000-10,000 Range

Coins in the price range are my “bread and butter” but I would say this middle range (“middle” at least in the sense of rare gold coins) is the weakest part of the coin market going into 2014. Collectors who buy coins in this range are far more selective now than they were a few years ago, and a coin has to have an “it” factor to sell for $5,000, $7,500, or $10,000. I’ve invented a term called Multiple Levels of Demand to define what I regard as coins that have “it.”

As with coins priced below $2,500, coins priced at around $10,000 have to be interesting, and they have to have good visual appeal. Here are a few areas that I think will be in strong demand in 2014.

• Properly grade AU58 branch mint quarter eagles and half eagles. Nice slider examples if southern branch mint gold coins remain one of the best values in all of 19^th century numismatics. As I’ve explained before, a properly graded AU58 (not a coin that “looks like an MS64;” these don’t exist) is a coin that is being rewarded for positive eye appeal while a typical MS60, MS61 and even an MS62 is a coin with faults which are being punished. Most collectors would rather have a nice, natural AU58 Dahlonega half eagle at $5,000-6,000 than a “rubby” MS61 at $9,000-$11,000 and it is hard to blame them.

• Better date Three Dollar gold pieces. This is a series that has been out of demand for too long and with a little bit of promoting, I could see some improved level of collector demand in 2014 and beyond. There are some great values in this series right now and, interestingly, there are more nice coins available in the $5,000-7,500 range than in many other comparably priced types.

• MS64+CAC Indian Head gold.  From what I’ve seen, the quality of MS64+ Indian Head quarter eagles, half eagles and eagles is pretty nice and the typical example is visually better than MS64. As long as premium aren’t excessive over an average quality MS64, I can see the market expanding even further for these coins in 2014; especially when the price jump to MS65 is at least double or triple.

3. Coins Priced at $20,000 and Over

At this level, the air gets a lot thinner, but the market for nice quality expensive (notice I said “expensive” and not “trophy”) coins is as strong now as I can recall at any time since 2006-2007. Buyers of expensive coins are very discriminating (as they should be), but in my experience, the “right” coins in the $20,000-50,000 range are selling very well and will continue to do so in 2014.

There are a number of areas which fit into this category which I think have good upside in 2014. Here are a few of them.

• Really exceptional branch mint gold coins in MS63 and MS64. If you look at auction prices from 1999-2001 and compare the values of a coin like an 1847-C quarter eagle in PCGS MS64 then versus now, you will typically see a slight overall decline. There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is that many coins have been graded MS63 or MS64 which are not nice. But in my opinion, a choice, original CAC-quality Dahlonega half eagle in MS63 or a beautiful, naturally toned Charlotte quarter eagle in MS64 is truly rare. These coins may not have date collector demand in these high grades but there are numerous type collectors looking for one or two great coins in all of these series. Watch for demand to increase in 2014 and beyond.

• Rare date Proof gold in PR64 and PR65. Many of the Proof gold coins from the 1860’s, 1870’s and early 1880’s have tiny original mintages and fewer than half are known. Despite the rarity of a coin like an 1874 quarter eagle in Proof, the focus has been more on large denomination coins (eagles and double eagles) or super-grade pieces in the PR66 to PR68 range. While they are not often available, comparably “affordable” Proof gold dollars, quarter eagles, three dollar gold pieces and even half eagles seem to be increasing in demand and I see no reason that this will not continue through 2014 and beyond.

• Truly rare business strikes in Condition Census grades. The level of demand for formerly obscure business strike rarities will increase in 2014 as well. One thing I noticed in 2013 was that when I listed a choice, higher grade example of a truly rare coin on my website, I got multiple inquiries and not just from the “usual suspects.” As an example, I listed two very nice 1863 half eagles on my site in 2013 and I heard from numerous collectors for each of them, including two silver dollar collectors who wanted to buy an 1863 “just because it was cool” and a few dealers who I’ve literally never sold a coin to before.

4. Trophy Coins

In virtually all collectibles areas, the truly great “trophy” items are in huge demand and this will continue in 2014. The NGC MS63 Brasher Doubloon that will be sold by Heritage in a few weeks at the 2014 FUN auction could very well set a record for any coin - and there will be a number of million dollar+ coins in this sale and other auctions immediately afterwards.

A decade ago, the sale of a million dollar United States coin was front-page news; today it is relatively commonplace. As more “big money” discovers the coin market, I look for many exceptional prices realized in 2014, both at auction and via private treaty.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world's leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Some Thoughts on Rarity

Having just published a blog about coin rarity based on grade distribution, I’ve been thinking more about the many concepts of rarity and how they apply to coin collecting. Let’s take a look at a few and discuss them. Rarity is probably one of the two or three most misused terms in all of numismatics, especially from the selling side. I consistently see coins referred to as “rare” which most definitely are not.

Collectors need to remember that rarity is a relative concept. A coin like an 1895 Morgan Dollar is always termed a “rare” coin. Within the context of the Morgan Dollar series, it is rare. But one needs to remember that there are hundreds of examples known in grades up to and including PR67 and, if compared to a coin like an 1867-S quarter eagle (which is priced at a tiny fraction of the 1895 dollar) it is common. What always needs to be remembered when analyzing rarity is context. There are, in theory, hundreds if not thousands of serious Morgan dollar collectors and this makes a coin like an 1895 contextually rare. On the other hand, there are probably less than two to three dozen serious collectors of Liberty Head quarter eagles and an issue like an 1867-S exists in enough quantity that anyone who wants a decent example should be able to find one. In other words, there are basically enough to go around; at least for now.

Rarity is both relative and series specific. It is difficult to compare absolute rarity from one series to another. As I mentioned above, a coin with 20 known in all grades can be a great rarity in a popular series, or it can be a “sleeper” if it is in a series which has the potential of being more intensely collected in the future. There are also numerous esoteric coins that have 20 known but the number of collectors is so few that 20 coins is the equivalent to hundreds of pieces known in a more popular series.

There are essentially two types of rarity. The first is overall rarity. This refers to a coin which is rare in all grades and whose rarity is not solely predicated on its grade. A coin which is rare in all grades is also called fundamentally rare.  As a dealer, these are the types of coins I like to buy and what I specialize in.

A coin can be fundamentally rare for a number of reasons. A Proof 1878 gold dollar is fundamentally rare because of its original mintage figure (a scant 20 coins). An 1828/7 half eagle is fundamentally rare because virtually every known example was melted in 1834 when the weight was changed for gold coins and old tenor half eagles were worth more than face value. An 1865 half eagle is rare not only because of a low original mintage figure (1,270 business strikes) but because of the fact that it is a well-used Civil War issue that not only saw active use in circulation was later melted.

In the area of branch mint gold, few issues are fundamentally rare. Most exist in quantities of 150-200 in all grades. But nearly all branch mint coins are grade rarities.

In nearly all series of American coins, grade rarity has become more significant to collectors than condition rarity. An 1843-D half eagle in Very Fine is a relatively available coin and within the context of Dahlonega issues it is common. But this same date in, say, Mint State-63 is very rare and it is described as a grade rarity.

But the real grade rarities in American numismatics tend to be in 20th century series. An average quality MS64 1912 St. Gaudens double eagle is worth around $5,000 in MS64 and $25,000 or more in properly graded MS65. The disparity can be far, far greater with coins from the 1940’s, 1950’s and 1960’s. As an example (and I selected this totally randomly) a 1942-S quarter is worth $300 in PCGS MS66, $2,500 in PCGS MS67 and close to $20,000—maybe more—in PCGS MS68. That’s a big difference in quality for a difference in appearance that might not be readily recognizable to more than a handful of dealers and specialized collectors.

The difference between the 1843-D half eagle and the 1942-S quarter is that the former has a reasonably significant degree of value in all grades. Even a cleaned, no-grade 1843-D is worth around $1,000; an average quality circulated 1942-S might not fetch six bucks at your local coin shop.

To my way of thinking the “best” coins are what I call dual rarities. This is a coin that is not only rare from an overall standpoint (i.e., it might have a total number known of 40-50) and it is among the best known for that particular issue. Going back to a  coin I mentioned earlier in this blog, the 1865 half eagle, a nice AU55 example would be a dual rarity as it would be among the finest known examples of a coin which is rare in all grades.

The newest category of rarity, one that dates from the 1970’s but which is probably at its height right now, is what I refer to as appearance rarity. Appearance rarity can be related to strike (Full Bands for Mercury dimes, Full Head for Standing Liberty quarters) or it can be related to coloration (Red and Brown or Red for Lincoln Cents). The newest categories of appearance rarity relate to the actual finish of a Proof coin (Deep Cameo/Ultra Cameo) or for business strikes (Prooflike or Deep Mirror Prooflike).

I have mixed feelings about appearance rarity. If I was collecting Lincoln Cents by date, would I spend $100,000+ for a PCGS Red MS65 1926-S or $5,000+ for a mostly red MS65 Red and Brown? Easy answer for me (without a doubt I’m in for the Red and Brown coin) but, then again, I’m a fundamental rarity guy and not a condition rarity so the concepts of appearance rarity seems totally wacky to me. But there are instances I will and do pay a premium for appearance; an example would be a better date Type Three double eagle in MS63 designated as Deep Mirror Prooflike or a rare date Proof Liberty Head half eagle designated as Deep Cameo.

One of the oldest subcategories of rarity is also one of the hardest for the layman to figure. Certain series, like Large Cents and Capped Bust half dollars are avidly collected by die variety. There might not be more a few dozen very serious collectors in these two areas but they tend to be extremely passionate and often very well-heeled. For a non-specialist like me, I am often amazed at the huge prices certain early cents bring but I can appreciate them. My only caveat for a variety collector is to avoid paying premiums in series which are not avidly collected by die variety. You may collect Trade Dollars by variety but if you do you are one of probably ten or fewer collectors who do. Paying a large premium for a seemingly rare variety might not prove financially prudent down the road.

In closing, I’d like to quickly address a question which I am often asked by new collectors: how can you tell if a coin is truly rare? I think frequency of appearance at auction is an excellent guide.

• If a coin appears for sale at virtually all major sales, it is common. An example of this would be a 1901-S eagle in MS64.
• If a coin appears a few times a year at auction (say three or four times), it is at the very least scarce. An example of this would be an 1849-D half eagle in AU50.
• If a coin appears less than once per year at auction, it is rare. This is true from both an in-grade and overall rarity perspective.
• And if a coin appears at auction once every three to five years? That, in my opinion, is a coin which is very rare or even extremely rare.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.