1860-C $5.00 NGC AU55

This is exactly the sort of coin that, so many times in the past, has been scrubbed and reholdered by the grading services as an AU58. To my eyes, it is far more attractive (and valuable) as a "virgin" 55. As always, this piece must be graded only by the obverse as the reverse is weak and fuzzy due to improper planchet preparation. Both sides show very appealing medium to deep green-gold color and there is ample dirt in the recesses on both sides. A thin mint-made defect in the left obverse field runs from the denticles between stars one and two towards the chin and is diagnostic to the issue. The 1860-C half eagle is genuinely scarce in properly graded AU55 to AU58 and very rare in Uncirculated. This example is perfect for the date collector but would make a nice type coin as well.

1853-D Large D $5.00 PCGS AU50 CAC

I searched long and hard for nice Dahlonega half eagles at the recent ANA show and there were next to none available. This tells me that these coins are currently very popular and the collectors who have been buying them over the years have no intention of selling them anytime soon. The present example is solid for the grade with nice surfaces and pleasing rich green-gold color. There is some dirt caked into the recesses of the stars and through the lettering on much of the reverse. This coin would be perfect for the type collector as it is well-made and very affordable.

1861 $3.00 NGC MS62

Of the 5,959 business strikes produced, it is likely that most were melted and the 1861 is a popular Civil war issue that is scarce in all grades. The typical example is found in circulated grades and is characterized by heavy mint-made striations. The slightly prooflike example has the naked-eye appearance of a Choice Uncirculated and has just a few wispy hairlines on the obverse. Both sides show attractive light green-gold and rosy orange hues and there are no marks of note. In the last decade, fewer than ten examples have appeared at auction in MS62 and this date becomes rare and expensive in MS63 and above. This would be a great time to put together a nice set of Civil War three dollar gold pieces as the coins are available from time to time and seem reasonably priced compared to other denominations of this era.

1871 $2.50 PCGS MS63

As with most of the Reconstruction Era quarter eagles, the 1871 is a forgotten rarity that is typically seen in circulated grades. Only 5,350 were produced of which a few hundred are known. I believe that around 15 or so are known in Uncirculated (maybe less) and most are in the MS60 to MS62 range. This choice example has a fresh, vibrant appearance with great rose and orange-gold color. There are a few light scuffs in the fields and a faint reverse grease stain above and behind the head of the eagle. In the February Heritage Long Beach sale a comparable example (graded MS63 by NGC) brought $4,830. Coins like this seem like great value to me.

1838 $2.50 PCGS AU55 CAC

Totally original and very choice for the grade with lovely deep amber-gold color on the obverse and reverse. Lightly worn and with dirt caked into the protected areas. Certainly not a really rare coin but not an issue that is often found with this degree of eye appeal. In fact, this is the only 1838 quarter eagle in AU55 that currently has CAC approval (eight examples graded higher also have a CAC sticker)

1853/2 $10.00 NGC AU55

The 1853/2 is one of only two legitimate overdates in the Liberty Head series along with the 1839/8 Head of 1838. It is not really as rare as once claimed in lower grades but it is scarce in properly graded AU55 to AU58 and extremely rare in full Mint State (I have only seen two and none better than MS61). When available in the middle AU grades, this issue tends to be processed and unattractive. The present example is one of the few 1853/2 eagles I have seen with nice color. The peripheries on both the obverse and reverse have acquired a fiery reddish-gold hue that nicely contrasts the natural lighter rose-gold centers. There is a good deal of luster present and the abrasions that are present are commensurate with the grade. A few small obverse rim marks at 9:00 to 10:00 do not detract.

1874-CC $20.00 PCGS EF40

Recently expatriated from Europe and graded by PCGS (somewhat conservatively I might add) in their Paris office. Nice and dirty with some underlying luster and attractive natural coloration. The surfaces are very clean for the issue. I think this coin compares favorably with the PCGS EF45 CAC example of this date which I just sold.

ANA Show Predictions: 2011

If you had asked me just last week how this year's ANA show was going to turn out, I'd have told you it was going to be an unqualified success. But with the recent topsy-turvy (to say the least...) state of the stock market and economic fears in general, I'm afraid I may have to temper my earlier views. Somewhat. I still think this year's ANA is going to be successful. No, I don't especially like the location (being so close yet so far to downtown Chicago is sort of heartbreaking for me) but it makes sense and I like the fact that O'Hare airport (and the show) is within a three hour plane ride from just about any location in the country. Unless I'm mistaken, I think the attendance at this show will be excellent.

I've read in other blogs/newsletters about the show that Chicago is a "great coin town." While I can't argue with the long and glorious numismatic history of The Windy City (Hello Virgil Brand!), I've never had a great coin show in all of the major conventions that I've attended in Chicago. Frankly, I wish all ANA shows were in New York City as the two best ANA's that I've ever had, by a huge margin, were the last two held in The Big Apple. But I digress...

Back to the predictions.

Based on my sales so far this summer, which have been better than I would have expected, I think the coin market is reasonably healthy. But it is more two-tiered right now than at any time I can recall and it is clearly biased towards gold coins.

Which is good if you are a rare gold coin specialist.

There are some very odd dichotomies in the economy and the coin market right now. The first has to do with the spending habits of the very wealthy versus everyone else.

I read an article the other day in the New York Times that discussed spending on luxury brands like Gucci and Louis Vuitton versus spending at Wal-Mart and Costco. The luxury retailers have had amazing years so far and are raising prices. $1,250 shoes are flying out the door and there are waiting lists for trendy $8,000 coats. But at Wal-Mart, prices are being cut and already-stretched paychecks are having trouble buying essentials by the end of the month.

We are seeing a sort of microcosm of this in the coin market. Super high-end coins are very strong right now and I think you'll see some amazing prices in the pre-ANA and ANA sales for great coins. Expensive coins that are off-quality or not especially interesting have been weak sellers for the last few years and I expect this segment of the market to get hit hard at Chicago and beyond.

But the collector market remains very strong and, based on my personal experience, should continue as such for a while.

I'm not noticing the sense of fear that pervaded the economy in 2008. In September 2008, it was nearly impossible to sell any coin, no matter how great it was. This time around, I get the sense that in September 2011, collectors WILL be receptive to making purchases. But I think these purchases will be even more selective than in the past.

The run-up in gold prices isn't really fueling interest in the rare coin market the way I'd expect it to but I anticipate that this will change in the near-future. If even 1% of the new gold buyers become interested in rare gold coins, this surge of demand could have a real impact.

Will we feel this in Chicago? Probably not. I can't imagine that there will be packs of gold bugs roaming the aisles looking for Proof Liberty Head eagles. But I would be pretty surprised if there weren't a number of potentially serious newbies who've made the decision to go to ANA.

A few weeks ago I would have predicted that on the DWN-o-meter, this year's ANA would have been at least an A- show and it had the potential to be an A. Now, I'm thinking it will be a solid--if unspectacular--B show with the potential to maybe attain a B+ if the stars align properly.

Unlike other ANA shows in the recent past, I think there will be a decent supply of nice coins available for collectors and dealers to buy. The auctions are full of interesting, fresh material and I have the suspicion that some cool, fresh coins will appear on the floor as well. And I have the hunch that, in spite of economic fears, these good coins are going to bring very strong prices.

1842 $10.00 PCGS AU53 CAC

Large Date variety. Both the Large Date and Small Date eagles of this year tend to be overlooked (as are most eagles from Philadelphia struck in the 1840's) but they are scarce in About Uncirculated and exceedingly rare in Uncirculated. This piece, which is fresh from Europe and which was graded by PCGS in their Paris office, is wonderfully original with rich yellow and green-gold hues atop very lustrous surfaces. The detail is suggestive of an AU55 grade and there are just a few minor scuffs visible in the fields. The last PCGS AU53 of this variety to sell at auction was Heritage 2011 FUN: 7014 that brought $1,955; no others have sold since July 2009. This is the only CAC approved 1842 Large Date in AU53 and none have been stickered in grades higher than this.