How Will $2000 Gold Impact Rare Gold Coin Prices?

A few years ago I had a hard time believing that gold would ever cross the $1000 threshold. Today, it exceeded $1700 per ounce before retreating, and it seems inevitable that it will break the $2000 mark sometime this year. What impact will this record-shattering price have on the rare gold coin market? I see the impact of high-priced gold in a number of ways. With gold increasing so rapidly, it has gained a tremendous amount of publicity around the world. I feel this locally as well. My neighbors--at least the ones who know what I do for a living--are frequently asking me about gold prices and just today a teller at the bank had a long list of gold-related questions as I made my deposits.

People are buying gold coins and it is inevitable that a small percentage of them will eventually wind up in the rare gold coin market. I'd say that for every 1000 people who buy an American Eagle or a gold Buffalo today, maybe one or two of them will transform into buyers of coins like Type One Liberty Head double eagles or Saints.

For many rare gold coins, gold could rise to well over $2000 per ounce and the intrinsic value of the coin itself will not really be affected. An 1860-D gold dollar in EF45 or a 1907 Wire Edge eagle is a collector-based coin whose value is impacted by demand; not the rise in gold prices. So, I think it's important to remember that skyrocketing gold's greatest impact is on potential demand; not by increasing existing value(s) based on intrinsic worth.

One subtle but dramatic impact on rare gold is dealer profits. Let me explain: when a large wholesale firm makes tons of money in the bullion market (as they should be now) it is likely that they will reinvest a percentage of their profits in the rare gold market. A coin that a firm might not have bought when they were not making profits from rising gold could enter their inventory when they are making lots of gold profits. And the same goes with dozens of other dealers; big and small.

One huge impact on the rare gold coin market is in entry level pricing. When gold was under $1,000 an ounce, coins like Liberty Head double eagles in EF and AU were relatively small purchases; items that collectors didn't think twice about at $1,250 a pop. But now with gold at close to $2,000 even a common date Type One double eagle will have an entry level price at $2,250-2,500. Suddenly this is a lot of money and it might not be considered an impulse purchase anymore for the middle-class collector.

I think this is an important point to consider. I read an interesting article the other day in the Los Angeles Times where downtown LA jewelers were complaining that the high price of gold was hurting their business. The typical jewellery store client was now a seller instead of a buyer and the low end/middle end lines of merchandise that they carried were not selling due to the high price of gold. Could this carry over to coins?

I am not seeing a huge increase in demand on my website regarding gold coins right now. I'm assuming that's because I have the reputation as a dealer in rare gold coins and not in gold bullion or semi-numismatics. I'd be interested to know if the bullion-based gold traders have their phones ringing off the hook today. I'm assuming that they are very, very busy.

I will also be interested to see the impact of $1700+ gold on the ANA convention which begins in just a few days. I'm going to assume that there will be a lot of people at the show looking to buy gold coins. But will they be looking for American eagles or rare date Liberty Head eagles?

There are tons of interesting rare and high quality U.S. gold coins in the two auctions before and during the show. How will $1700+ gold impact them? This will be very interesting to monitor as well.

1874 $5.00 PCGS MS62

The Reconstruction Era half eagles from the Philadelphia mint are, with the exception of the 1873, very rare. The 1874 is no exception and this unheralded issue has an original mintage of only 3,488 business strikes. I believe that around 60-80 examples are known with most in the VF-EF range. There are at least three examples in Uncirculated of which this piece could well be the second best. It has a superb natural appearance with delicate rose-gold hues and lovely semi-prooflike luster. A few very light ticks in the obverse fields narrowly keep this piece from a 63 grade but the visual appeal suggests a higher grade and it represents amazing quality for the date and grade. The only finer example I have ever seen is Bass II: 1194 that brought a strong $20,125 back in 1999; that coin was resold as Heritage 11/06: 2229 where it went reasonably at $20,700. Coins like this are almost never offered for sale anymore via private treaty and this is an important potential addition to a world-class set of Liberty Head half eagles.

C Bechtler $1.00 N Reversed PCGS AU50 CAC

Kagin-4, Rarity 3. This variety is immediately recognizable by the reversed N in ONE. Recently purchased from an old estate and off the market for over two decades, this piece has superb deep original green-gold with reddish hues at the periphery. It is a full 55 from the standpoint of sharpness and detail but it has been net-graded to AU50 by PCGS on account of a small mint-made planchet defect on the reverse below AR in CAROLINA and an ancient pinscratch from the right edge of the first L in DOLLAR to the N in the denomination. A lovely example of this quaint design and the first PCGS AU50 to be offered for sale since Goldberg 9/08: 1726 which brought $4,255. If you collect Charlotte gold dollars and/or other Federal coins of this denomination, you should include a Bechtler issue or two in your set.

1812 $5.00 NGC MS64

BD-1. R-3. Wide 5D variety. Struck from unclashed dies. This is a fresh and really lovely example of a Capped Bust Left half eagle. It has totally original color with rich green-gold shadings that deepen at the borders. The strike is as sharp as one could hope for with just a small amount of weakness at the centers; the borders show full denticles and radial lines on the stars. The obverse is virtually of Gem quality save for a few minor scuffs in the fields; the reverse shows a few minor vertical adjustment marks at the center that blend in with the detail. What appears to be "damage" on the reverse is actually a mint-made defect through the horizontal lines in the shield that is found on all examples of this variety. While readily available in the lower Uncirculated grades, the 1812 becomes scarce in MS63 and it is rare in MS64. A Gem, if available, would cost in excess of $100,000. For most collectors, this borderline Gem example would be a perfect representative of this design.

Overall and Comparative Rarity Analysis of Dahlonega Gold Coinage

Using the revised population estimates in the third edition of my book, it is possible to make some interesting observations and conclusions regarding Dahlonega coinage. As an example, it is possible to estimate the average number of survivors for each denomination, the percentage of survivors by grade, and an overall percentage of survival for an entire denomination. 1. GOLD DOLLARS

Estimated Number Extant: 2415-3025 Issues Struck: 13 Average Extant Per Issue: 185.76-232.69 Total Extant by Grade: Very Fine and Below: 227-319 Extremely Fine: 916-1110 About Uncirculated: 1125-1385 Uncirculated: 147-211

% of Total Population: Very Fine and Below: 9.39-10.54 Extremely Fine: 36.69-37.92 About Uncirculated: 45.78-46.58 Uncirculated: 6.08-6.97

Original Mintage Figure, all issues: 73,259-74,209 (NOTE: this is expressed as a range due to the fact that the original mintage figure for the 1861-D dollar is not known)

Estimated Survival Rate: 3.28-4.08

Analysis: The data from the third edition of this book shows that gold dollars from Dahlonega continue to be easier to locate in higher grades than their quarter eagle and half eagle counterparts. The average number of coins known per issue is slightly lower than one might expect. But given the small size of these coins and the conditions by which they circulated, it remains a wonder that as many have survived as are known today.

It is interesting to compare the survival rate of Dahlonega gold dollars to other branch mint coins of this denomination. As a rule, for branch mint coins struck prior to the Civil War, the survival rate is generally in the range of 1 to 2%. For gold dollars this seems to be higher but in the case of the Dahlonega issues, much of this has to do with the high number of 1849-D dollars that have survived. If you remove this date from the equation, the surviving percentage fits nicely within the parameters of the above-referenced survival range(s).

Dahlonega gold dollars are certainly more available in higher grades (About Uncirculated and above) than the quarter eagles, three dollars, and half eagles from this mint. Over 50% of all known Dahlonega gold dollars grade About Uncirculated or Uncirculated and close to 90% grade Extremely Fine or better. This is considerably higher than it is for the other denominations from this mint.

This suggests at least two things: that Dahlonega gold dollars did not circulated as long and as hard as the other denominations, and that relatively large quantities of higher grade Dahlonega gold dollars have become available as the result of hoards and/or accumulations. Another possible explanation for the high survival rate in higher grades might be that the small size of the dollars did not make them as attractive to melters as the larger sized issues were, and this made them somewhat more likely to survive.

The overall population of many dates in the gold dollar series has been underestimated for many years. As an example, in the 1960’s and 1970’s it was often written that fewer than a dozen 1856-D dollars were known. We now know that the actual number might be as great as 100 or so coins. One of the reasons that the rarity of this date was overstated (along with the 1854-D, 1860-D and 1861-D) is that these issues all had tiny original mintages.

The 1856-D is a good example to illustrate this. Only 1,460 were produced. Using the assumption that around 1% of these should have survived one can see how an estimate of a “dozen or so” might have come about.

Dahlonega gold dollars are a good example of the adage that you can’t judge the rarity of a specific issue solely by its original mintage figure.

2. QUARTER EAGLES

Estimated Number Extant: 3,195-3,915 Issues Struck: 20 Average Extant Per Issue: 159.75-195.75 Total Extant By Grade: Very Fine and Below: 716-926 Extremely Fine: 1270-1533 About Uncirculated: 1037-1245 Uncirculated: 104-141

% of Total Population: Very Fine and Below: 22.41-23.65 Extremely Fine: 39.15-39.74 About Uncirculated: 31.80-32.45 Uncirculated: 3.25-3.60

Original Mintage Figure, all Issues: 197,850

Estimated Survival rate: 1.61-1.97

Analysis: Quarter Eagles remain the rarest of the three primary denominations of coins struck at the Dahlonega mint both in terms of overall rarity and rarity in high grades.

When I last did this statistical analysis, I believed that around 70% of all Dahlonega quarter eagles were in lower grades; i.e., Extremely Fine and below. Today, I estimate this number to be like 60%. This shift is due to gradeflation and many coins that were formerly VF became EF (and EF’s became AU’s).

Uncirculated quarter eagles from this mint remain very rare. Less than 3.5% of all known Dahlonega quarter eagles are Uncirculated and this number is more impressive when you consider that five dates (1839-D, 1844-D, 1847-D, 1848-D and 1857-D) constitute around 75% of the known Dahlonega quarter eagles in Uncirculated. The rarity of high grade Dahlonega quarter eagles has remained remarkably consistent since the last edition of this book was written in 2003.

In the last edition of this book, I suggested that the estimated survival rate for this denomination was between 1.18 and 1.37%. I believe that this was a bit too low and now the range is from 1.61 to 1.97%. As time passes, it is likely that the survival rate will become slightly higher than 2% of the original mintage figure for this denomination.

1853 $20.00 PCGS AU55 CAC

Repunched Date. Designated on the inert by PCGS as being a "minor vaiety," this examples shows light repunching on the 3 in the date. This is a choice, lovely example with pleasing luster and medium rose hues atop a base of orange-gold. There is a small grease stain through the 853 in the date and up to the throat that is as struck. A really pleasing and affordable Type One with the added appeal of being designated as a collectible variety.

1843-D $2.50 NGC AU53 CAC

Small Mintmark variety. This totally fresh-to-the-market 1843-D quarter eagle has superb original color with deep coppery-gold and rich reddish-green hues, in different configurations, on the obverse and reverse. The surfaces are very clean with no detracting marks and there is a good amount of dirt in the protected areas. The 1843-D is the most common quarter eagle from this mint but it is not often offered with original color and surfaces. Considering the fact that really nasty slabbed examples of this date rountinely trade in the $2000-2500 range, this piece seems like a wonderful value at just a small premium.

1853 $20.00 NGC AU58

Type One Liberty Head double eagles, regardless of date, are very hard to find in "Gem Slider." These coins saw considerable circulation and were transported loose from bank to bank for many years. As a result of their size and the softness of gold as a coinage metal, many lightly circulated examples show a plethora of detracting abrasions. But not this piece. I doubt if this 1853 saw any actual circulation and it is fully original with rich rose and orange-gold hues atop choice, lustrous surfaces. As a date, the 1853 is harder to find in this grade than the comparatively priced 1851 and 1852. A great looking example and an affordable alternative to a high four figure MS61 example.

A Basic Guide to Detecting Doctored Gold Coins

There is no getting around the fact that doctoring of rare United States gold coins is a problem in the market. Doctoring is not new. I've heard stories of American collectors and dealers "messing" with coins as far back as a century ago, and I have no doubt that the problem dates back even further in Europe. But it is really only the last decade or two that we've seen increasingly sophisticated doctoring done in an attempt to fool the grading services. At first, I thought about using lots of photos to verify what I am going to discuss in this blog, but I don't want to taint specific coins that don't belong to me by pointing out obvious doctoring. So I am going to be as descriptive as I can be without using images. Hopefully, this will work.

For me, one of the most obvious ways to detect a doctored gold coin is by looking at its coloration. One of the reasons that I spend a significant amount of time describing the coloration of specific coins in my books and on the descriptions of coins in my inventory is so that collectors will become familiar with what natural color is supposed to look like.

Once a collector becomes familiar with the way a coin is supposed to appear, it becomes easier to detect coins that don't look the right way. For instance, the early date Dahlonega half eagles have a specific deep green-gold color that is easy to appreciate. Conversely, an issue from this era with the "wrong" color will not look right to a collector who is familiar with the series.

Many of the people who doctor gold coins aren't great numismatists, so they don't necessarily know the right color for an 1840-D half eagle or an 1878-S eagle. Becoming a knowledgeable numismatist within your field of collecting will put you in a far better position when it comes to determining whether or not a coin has been doctored.

There are a number of different types of artificial coloration that are found on gold coins. These depend on the specific chemical that is applied and how the process is undertaken.

Typically, chemicals placed on gold coins break down after they have been on the surface for a period of time. When you see a gold coin that has crazy color in a PCGS or NGC slab, this color didn't exist on the coin at the time it was graded; it changed within the slab.

One color that doesn't naturally exist on gold coins is deep orange or what I refer to as "Cheeto Orange." Think of that crunchy corn snack and the color it left your hands after you ate a few handfuls. I see many United States gold coins in holders that have this flaming orange hue. In 100% of the cases that this color is present, it is artificial,

Another color that indicates a coin that has been doctored is deep reddish-gold. There are many gold coins that have natural reddish-gold hues, but the hues that they possess are subtle and tend to deepen towards the borders. Coins with fake red color almost look like they've bled as the result of being stabbed. This deep red color doesn't exist on natural, original coins.

I see 20th century gold coins from time to time that have a bluish or purple tint and this is the result of the surfaces having been heated; probably in an attempt to remove spots. Back when copper spots were not considered a detriment, you never say any U.S. gold coins that had blue hues. Today, with copper spots being the numismatic equivalent of melanomas, you see fewer gold coins with these spots and more with funky heat-produced hues.

Many of the U.S. gold coins that have been doctored have had substances put on the surfaces in an attempt to hide hairlines or marks. Often times, substances such as auto body putty or dental wax are lightly coated on the surfaces.

Why are these substances not detected by the services when the coins are submitted? Some are, but on other coins, the application is light enough to not be easily detected. After a period of time, the putty begins to break down and it turns cloudy or even white.

Putty that has broken down is easy to spot. How can a collector spot fresh putty on a coin? It's not easy; it can fool both the services and savvy dealers, myself included. In this case, I think its as important to "buy the dealer" as it is to buy the coin.

Certain dealers have reputations as people who doctor coins. As you become more experienced in your area of specialization, try to learn what dealers have these bad reputations. If this isn't realistic, study the coins on their website. Do they show signs of having been puttied?

This very problem is a reason why coins in old holders have become so popular with collectors. The chances are good that a coin slabbed by NGC or PCGS in the early 1990's is not going to change dramatically in appearance if it hasn't already in two decades within a slab.

I'd suggest that whenever you do get the chance to study coins that are 100% fresh (from old collection, in old holders, etc) you pay careful attention to the quality of the surfaces. What is a gold coin that hasn't been doctored supposed to look like? Make mental notes of original surfaces and use this as a comparison for coins in your collection or those you are thinking of buying.

A less innocuous type of doctoring involves artificially brightening a coin by stripping its surface. The most common way to do this is by placing a coin in a solvent such as Jewelustre and "dipping" it.

While I am much more of a purist than most dealers, I do not have an issue with gold coins that have been carefully dipped. Of course I would rather see coins that are dark and crusty, but a lighter coin with mostly full "skin" is commercially acceptable. On certain coins, like Brilliant Proof gold, it has become the rule rather than the exception and many collectors of Proof gold have literally never even seen a truly original example.

There are other ways of brightening coins that I personally do not care for. At one time, it was common to see gold coins that had been "baking soda-ed" in a way to simulate mint luster by making them bright and shiny. Unfortunately, many gold coins with this sort of appearance were graded and encapuslated (and often "maxed out" from a grade perspective, in my opinion).

Coins with this sort of appearance have fallen out of favor and the services have become much better about putting such coins in overgraded holders.

How do you tell a gold coin that has had this done? Often the appearance is grainy in texture and the color is drab and almost monochromatic in hue. Also, the surfaces will lack any cartwheel luster, although this may be difficult for a new collector to determine. The best thing is to, again, learn what original surfaces look like.

To me, the worst type of doctoring is the sort that involves moving metal on the surfaces. This is deceptive and dangerous to the hobby. Luckily, the grading services are extremely good at detecting coins that have had this done, and for most collectors this will never be a problem unless they move out of their comfort zone and purchase raw coins from non-reputable sources.

If you do purchase raw coins, there are a few things to check. Collectors often forget about a coin's rim and should remember that this is the third side of a coin. Some 18th and 19th century coins have been cleverly rim filed in an attempt to remove old bumps and bruises.

Other raw coins have had scratches or marks removed. Often, it is easy to detect this as they will show smoothed areas in the fields. The grading services are extremely good at detecting this and I can't recall having seen many gold coins in holders that had scratches or marks removed but missed.

Will the coin doctoring problem that we are facing go away any time soon? It is doubtful but as a consumer, you can do your share in eradicating the problem by becoming knowledgable. If coin doctors lose their audiance for doctored coins, they will stop (or at least cut back) on their work. This sounds naive, I know, but in this case an educated consumer is one solid way to begin eradicating this problem.

What are your thoughts on coin doctoring? Leave a comment after you've read this blog and let's begin a discussion.