Overall and Comparative Rarity Analysis of Dahlonega Gold Coinage

Using the revised population estimates in the third edition of my book, it is possible to make some interesting observations and conclusions regarding Dahlonega coinage. As an example, it is possible to estimate the average number of survivors for each denomination, the percentage of survivors by grade, and an overall percentage of survival for an entire denomination. 1. GOLD DOLLARS

Estimated Number Extant: 2415-3025 Issues Struck: 13 Average Extant Per Issue: 185.76-232.69 Total Extant by Grade: Very Fine and Below: 227-319 Extremely Fine: 916-1110 About Uncirculated: 1125-1385 Uncirculated: 147-211

% of Total Population: Very Fine and Below: 9.39-10.54 Extremely Fine: 36.69-37.92 About Uncirculated: 45.78-46.58 Uncirculated: 6.08-6.97

Original Mintage Figure, all issues: 73,259-74,209 (NOTE: this is expressed as a range due to the fact that the original mintage figure for the 1861-D dollar is not known)

Estimated Survival Rate: 3.28-4.08

Analysis: The data from the third edition of this book shows that gold dollars from Dahlonega continue to be easier to locate in higher grades than their quarter eagle and half eagle counterparts. The average number of coins known per issue is slightly lower than one might expect. But given the small size of these coins and the conditions by which they circulated, it remains a wonder that as many have survived as are known today.

It is interesting to compare the survival rate of Dahlonega gold dollars to other branch mint coins of this denomination. As a rule, for branch mint coins struck prior to the Civil War, the survival rate is generally in the range of 1 to 2%. For gold dollars this seems to be higher but in the case of the Dahlonega issues, much of this has to do with the high number of 1849-D dollars that have survived. If you remove this date from the equation, the surviving percentage fits nicely within the parameters of the above-referenced survival range(s).

Dahlonega gold dollars are certainly more available in higher grades (About Uncirculated and above) than the quarter eagles, three dollars, and half eagles from this mint. Over 50% of all known Dahlonega gold dollars grade About Uncirculated or Uncirculated and close to 90% grade Extremely Fine or better. This is considerably higher than it is for the other denominations from this mint.

This suggests at least two things: that Dahlonega gold dollars did not circulated as long and as hard as the other denominations, and that relatively large quantities of higher grade Dahlonega gold dollars have become available as the result of hoards and/or accumulations. Another possible explanation for the high survival rate in higher grades might be that the small size of the dollars did not make them as attractive to melters as the larger sized issues were, and this made them somewhat more likely to survive.

The overall population of many dates in the gold dollar series has been underestimated for many years. As an example, in the 1960’s and 1970’s it was often written that fewer than a dozen 1856-D dollars were known. We now know that the actual number might be as great as 100 or so coins. One of the reasons that the rarity of this date was overstated (along with the 1854-D, 1860-D and 1861-D) is that these issues all had tiny original mintages.

The 1856-D is a good example to illustrate this. Only 1,460 were produced. Using the assumption that around 1% of these should have survived one can see how an estimate of a “dozen or so” might have come about.

Dahlonega gold dollars are a good example of the adage that you can’t judge the rarity of a specific issue solely by its original mintage figure.

2. QUARTER EAGLES

Estimated Number Extant: 3,195-3,915 Issues Struck: 20 Average Extant Per Issue: 159.75-195.75 Total Extant By Grade: Very Fine and Below: 716-926 Extremely Fine: 1270-1533 About Uncirculated: 1037-1245 Uncirculated: 104-141

% of Total Population: Very Fine and Below: 22.41-23.65 Extremely Fine: 39.15-39.74 About Uncirculated: 31.80-32.45 Uncirculated: 3.25-3.60

Original Mintage Figure, all Issues: 197,850

Estimated Survival rate: 1.61-1.97

Analysis: Quarter Eagles remain the rarest of the three primary denominations of coins struck at the Dahlonega mint both in terms of overall rarity and rarity in high grades.

When I last did this statistical analysis, I believed that around 70% of all Dahlonega quarter eagles were in lower grades; i.e., Extremely Fine and below. Today, I estimate this number to be like 60%. This shift is due to gradeflation and many coins that were formerly VF became EF (and EF’s became AU’s).

Uncirculated quarter eagles from this mint remain very rare. Less than 3.5% of all known Dahlonega quarter eagles are Uncirculated and this number is more impressive when you consider that five dates (1839-D, 1844-D, 1847-D, 1848-D and 1857-D) constitute around 75% of the known Dahlonega quarter eagles in Uncirculated. The rarity of high grade Dahlonega quarter eagles has remained remarkably consistent since the last edition of this book was written in 2003.

In the last edition of this book, I suggested that the estimated survival rate for this denomination was between 1.18 and 1.37%. I believe that this was a bit too low and now the range is from 1.61 to 1.97%. As time passes, it is likely that the survival rate will become slightly higher than 2% of the original mintage figure for this denomination.

1853 $20.00 PCGS AU55 CAC

Repunched Date. Designated on the inert by PCGS as being a "minor vaiety," this examples shows light repunching on the 3 in the date. This is a choice, lovely example with pleasing luster and medium rose hues atop a base of orange-gold. There is a small grease stain through the 853 in the date and up to the throat that is as struck. A really pleasing and affordable Type One with the added appeal of being designated as a collectible variety.

1843-D $2.50 NGC AU53 CAC

Small Mintmark variety. This totally fresh-to-the-market 1843-D quarter eagle has superb original color with deep coppery-gold and rich reddish-green hues, in different configurations, on the obverse and reverse. The surfaces are very clean with no detracting marks and there is a good amount of dirt in the protected areas. The 1843-D is the most common quarter eagle from this mint but it is not often offered with original color and surfaces. Considering the fact that really nasty slabbed examples of this date rountinely trade in the $2000-2500 range, this piece seems like a wonderful value at just a small premium.

1853 $20.00 NGC AU58

Type One Liberty Head double eagles, regardless of date, are very hard to find in "Gem Slider." These coins saw considerable circulation and were transported loose from bank to bank for many years. As a result of their size and the softness of gold as a coinage metal, many lightly circulated examples show a plethora of detracting abrasions. But not this piece. I doubt if this 1853 saw any actual circulation and it is fully original with rich rose and orange-gold hues atop choice, lustrous surfaces. As a date, the 1853 is harder to find in this grade than the comparatively priced 1851 and 1852. A great looking example and an affordable alternative to a high four figure MS61 example.

A Basic Guide to Detecting Doctored Gold Coins

There is no getting around the fact that doctoring of rare United States gold coins is a problem in the market. Doctoring is not new. I've heard stories of American collectors and dealers "messing" with coins as far back as a century ago, and I have no doubt that the problem dates back even further in Europe. But it is really only the last decade or two that we've seen increasingly sophisticated doctoring done in an attempt to fool the grading services. At first, I thought about using lots of photos to verify what I am going to discuss in this blog, but I don't want to taint specific coins that don't belong to me by pointing out obvious doctoring. So I am going to be as descriptive as I can be without using images. Hopefully, this will work.

For me, one of the most obvious ways to detect a doctored gold coin is by looking at its coloration. One of the reasons that I spend a significant amount of time describing the coloration of specific coins in my books and on the descriptions of coins in my inventory is so that collectors will become familiar with what natural color is supposed to look like.

Once a collector becomes familiar with the way a coin is supposed to appear, it becomes easier to detect coins that don't look the right way. For instance, the early date Dahlonega half eagles have a specific deep green-gold color that is easy to appreciate. Conversely, an issue from this era with the "wrong" color will not look right to a collector who is familiar with the series.

Many of the people who doctor gold coins aren't great numismatists, so they don't necessarily know the right color for an 1840-D half eagle or an 1878-S eagle. Becoming a knowledgeable numismatist within your field of collecting will put you in a far better position when it comes to determining whether or not a coin has been doctored.

There are a number of different types of artificial coloration that are found on gold coins. These depend on the specific chemical that is applied and how the process is undertaken.

Typically, chemicals placed on gold coins break down after they have been on the surface for a period of time. When you see a gold coin that has crazy color in a PCGS or NGC slab, this color didn't exist on the coin at the time it was graded; it changed within the slab.

One color that doesn't naturally exist on gold coins is deep orange or what I refer to as "Cheeto Orange." Think of that crunchy corn snack and the color it left your hands after you ate a few handfuls. I see many United States gold coins in holders that have this flaming orange hue. In 100% of the cases that this color is present, it is artificial,

Another color that indicates a coin that has been doctored is deep reddish-gold. There are many gold coins that have natural reddish-gold hues, but the hues that they possess are subtle and tend to deepen towards the borders. Coins with fake red color almost look like they've bled as the result of being stabbed. This deep red color doesn't exist on natural, original coins.

I see 20th century gold coins from time to time that have a bluish or purple tint and this is the result of the surfaces having been heated; probably in an attempt to remove spots. Back when copper spots were not considered a detriment, you never say any U.S. gold coins that had blue hues. Today, with copper spots being the numismatic equivalent of melanomas, you see fewer gold coins with these spots and more with funky heat-produced hues.

Many of the U.S. gold coins that have been doctored have had substances put on the surfaces in an attempt to hide hairlines or marks. Often times, substances such as auto body putty or dental wax are lightly coated on the surfaces.

Why are these substances not detected by the services when the coins are submitted? Some are, but on other coins, the application is light enough to not be easily detected. After a period of time, the putty begins to break down and it turns cloudy or even white.

Putty that has broken down is easy to spot. How can a collector spot fresh putty on a coin? It's not easy; it can fool both the services and savvy dealers, myself included. In this case, I think its as important to "buy the dealer" as it is to buy the coin.

Certain dealers have reputations as people who doctor coins. As you become more experienced in your area of specialization, try to learn what dealers have these bad reputations. If this isn't realistic, study the coins on their website. Do they show signs of having been puttied?

This very problem is a reason why coins in old holders have become so popular with collectors. The chances are good that a coin slabbed by NGC or PCGS in the early 1990's is not going to change dramatically in appearance if it hasn't already in two decades within a slab.

I'd suggest that whenever you do get the chance to study coins that are 100% fresh (from old collection, in old holders, etc) you pay careful attention to the quality of the surfaces. What is a gold coin that hasn't been doctored supposed to look like? Make mental notes of original surfaces and use this as a comparison for coins in your collection or those you are thinking of buying.

A less innocuous type of doctoring involves artificially brightening a coin by stripping its surface. The most common way to do this is by placing a coin in a solvent such as Jewelustre and "dipping" it.

While I am much more of a purist than most dealers, I do not have an issue with gold coins that have been carefully dipped. Of course I would rather see coins that are dark and crusty, but a lighter coin with mostly full "skin" is commercially acceptable. On certain coins, like Brilliant Proof gold, it has become the rule rather than the exception and many collectors of Proof gold have literally never even seen a truly original example.

There are other ways of brightening coins that I personally do not care for. At one time, it was common to see gold coins that had been "baking soda-ed" in a way to simulate mint luster by making them bright and shiny. Unfortunately, many gold coins with this sort of appearance were graded and encapuslated (and often "maxed out" from a grade perspective, in my opinion).

Coins with this sort of appearance have fallen out of favor and the services have become much better about putting such coins in overgraded holders.

How do you tell a gold coin that has had this done? Often the appearance is grainy in texture and the color is drab and almost monochromatic in hue. Also, the surfaces will lack any cartwheel luster, although this may be difficult for a new collector to determine. The best thing is to, again, learn what original surfaces look like.

To me, the worst type of doctoring is the sort that involves moving metal on the surfaces. This is deceptive and dangerous to the hobby. Luckily, the grading services are extremely good at detecting coins that have had this done, and for most collectors this will never be a problem unless they move out of their comfort zone and purchase raw coins from non-reputable sources.

If you do purchase raw coins, there are a few things to check. Collectors often forget about a coin's rim and should remember that this is the third side of a coin. Some 18th and 19th century coins have been cleverly rim filed in an attempt to remove old bumps and bruises.

Other raw coins have had scratches or marks removed. Often, it is easy to detect this as they will show smoothed areas in the fields. The grading services are extremely good at detecting this and I can't recall having seen many gold coins in holders that had scratches or marks removed but missed.

Will the coin doctoring problem that we are facing go away any time soon? It is doubtful but as a consumer, you can do your share in eradicating the problem by becoming knowledgable. If coin doctors lose their audiance for doctored coins, they will stop (or at least cut back) on their work. This sounds naive, I know, but in this case an educated consumer is one solid way to begin eradicating this problem.

What are your thoughts on coin doctoring? Leave a comment after you've read this blog and let's begin a discussion.

1850 Large Date $10.00 NGC AU58

There are two distinct varieties of 1850 eagle: the Small Date (the rarer of the two) and the Large Date. The date size on the 1850 Large Date is not as mis-spaced as it is on the 1854-O Large Date eagle but it is easy to recognize, especially in comparison to the Small Date 1850 eagle. The 1850 Large Date is underrated in higher grades and it is actually quite scarce in the lower Mint State grades and very rare in MS62 and above. This very frosty slider shows characteristic light green-gold color with choice surfaces and great detail. There are a few small grease stains near star ten on the obverse that are mint-made. Philadelphia No Motto eagles in AU grades offer the collector with sophisticated taste but a limited bidget the opportunity to purchase very interesting coins that contain a half ounce of gold for very affordable sums.

1882-CC $20.00 NGC AU58 CAC

This is exactly the sort of AU58 Carson City double eagle that, as a collector, I would like to have in my collection. There is no real evidence of circulation; just some slight friction on the high spots that is probably the result of having been shipping in a bag. Both sides show deep, rich natural orange-gold color that is extremely attractive. The underlying surfaces are very clean with no marks of note and a good deal of luster present as well. The 1882-CC is the second scarcest CC double eagle from the 1880's trailing only the 1885-CC. It is a rare and high-priced coin in MInt State, meaning that a Gem Slider such as this is an excellent value and in strong demand amongst a large segment of collectors.

1852-O $10.00 NGC AU53

The 1852-O is one of the harder New Orleans eagles from this decade to find in higher grades. When available, it tends to come in the EF40 to AU50 range and is characterized by processed surfaces that are replete with dense abrasions. The present example is one of the nicer 1852-O eagles that I have seen in some time and it is a coin that, in my opinion, could easily have graded AU55 on the "right day." The strike is far above average for the issue with very good detail seen at the centers; the surfaces are very lustrous and quite clean with light green-gold hues. This date is nearly impossible to find choicer than this and I think it is a very good value given its scarcity in all AU grades.

1860-O $10.00 NGC AU55

This is the final New Orleans eagle of the No Motto type and the denomination would remain unproduced at this mint until it was resumed in 1879. I regard the 1860-O as an overlooked scarcity. Only 11,100 were made and of the few hundred that survive, most are in the EF40 to AU50 range. The 1860-O eagle is rare in properly graded AU55 to AU58 and extremely rare in Uncirculated. This example is more original and more lustrous than just about any 1860-O that I have seen in the last few years. It is slightly prooflike with pale orange-gold color that deepens a bit at the obverse border and on the shield. There are a few scattered marks but none are serious or detracting. Only one AU55 has appeared at auction since the summer of 2009; Heritage 1/11: 22442 (encapsulated by NGC) sold for $5,175. The present example is considerably nicer in my opinion and it would make a great addition to an advanced set of Liberty Head eagles.