What Will It Take To Jumpstart The Charlotte Gold Market?

In the last few months I’ve been asked a similar question by at least three collectors: what will it take to jump start the Charlotte gold market? This is an excellent question and I’d like to raise a few points that I think will explain what possible scenarios could affect these coins and the impact that they might have. Before delving into these specific points, I think a little background is in order. Charlotte gold coinage has been in a price and popularity slump for the last five or so years. I attribute this to the following reasons:

There are a lot of really low quality coins in PCGS and NGC holders on the market. When one sells for a low price at auction it tends to drag down the nice examples of this issue along with it.

My book on Charlotte gold coins is out of date and scarce. An updated third edition should be ready by the spring of 2008.

A few of the larger marketing firms who traditionally have sold Charlotte coins (both high end and low end pieces) have shifted their focus to other areas of the rare date gold market.

There haven’t been any really interesting collections of Charlotte coins that have come onto the market for a number of years. Often times, when a neat, fresh collection is offered for sale at auction, this generates new collector interest.

Many of the long-time specialists in this field have completed their sets and are not currently in the process of upgrading. This fact, combined with a relative lack of new collectors, has caused the supply of Charlotte coins to outstrip the demand.

I do not mean to give the impression that the Charlotte market is totally dead because it isn’t. I have personally had a good amount of success selling Charlotte coinage in the past few years but I have become extremely selective with what I buy. I will only purchase choice and original coins and I am probably less willing to make a slight allowance for “off quality” as I am in a more popular area such as Dahlonega gold or New Orleans double eagles. I know for a fact that there are a number of collectors working on VF-EF date sets in all three denominations and I have had a relatively easy time selling any very high quality (MS63 or better) pieces I find which have great color and eye appeal and/or which have a great pedigree.

Now, for some answers.

There is absolutely no question that the Charlotte market is not being helped by the existence of some really piggy coins in holders. I think this problem will be helped by the CAC stickering of nice coins which will generate new interest by collectors and dealers alike. New collectors will be helped by the fact that they can determine which coins are believed to be nice for the grade.

From my experience, a new (or updated) book on any subject generates a lot of interest. I can’t imagine that an improved and easily available Charlotte book won’t get a few new collectors interested. It will probably also motivate a few marketing firms to start selling Charlotte coins as they will have a guide to send collectors and to assist their sales force in making presentations.

The combination of CAC stickers, a new book and available product would certainly be good motivation for said marketing firms to sell Charlotte coins again. This might help remove some of the lower end and very high end pieces from the market which will leave the middle to upper middle end coins for collectors. When the Charlotte market was at its healthiest stage in the 1990’s, strong interest was seen not only in the collecting segment of the market but in the mass marketing segment as well.

In their January 2008 FUN sale, Heritage is going to sell a wonderful, fresh group of Charlotte coins called the Carolina Circle collection. This will be one of the first really important groups of Charlotte coins to be offered at auction since the incomparable run of collections sold at auction between 1995 and 2002 (Pittman, Bass, North Georgia, Miller, etc) and I would not be surprised if this creates a few new collectors.

The economics of any market are very simple. If the demand exceeds the supply, prices go up. Prices for nice EF40 and EF45 Charlotte coins have doubled in the past five or so years because there is a strong collector demand for these. Prices for overgraded, unattractive AU55 and AU58 coins have actually dropped (in some cases considerably) in the past five years because collectors do not want them and demand is—rightfully—very low for said items.

Personally, I think the sweet spot of the Charlotte market right now is nice AU55 and AU58 coins. These are, in most cases, very scarce but premiums are much lower than in the past. As an example, around five years a common date Charlotte half eagle in EF was worth around $800-1,000 while a common date in AU55 was worth $3,000-4,000 (or approximately 4x the price of an EF). Today, the EF is worth around $2,000-2,500 while the AU55 is still worth $3,000-4,000 (or approximately 1.5-2x the price of an EF).

New Orleans Double Eagles: An Update

As double eagles are clearly the most popular and highest priced gold coins produced at the New Orleans mint, I thought it would be interesting to update each issue and see what has transpired since the publication of my book "Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint, 1838-1909" last year. Taken as a whole, the market for these issues remains extremely strong. There are clearly a number of wealthy collectors who are assembling sets and when the "stoppers" become available for sale, they inevitably bring record prices. It is interesting to note that virtually every date in this series has set a new auction price record since my book was published in 2006. It is also interesting to note that, despite the strength of this market, auctions are not flooded with interesting New Orleans double eagles. The supply/demand ratio for these coins seems to be working just fine.

1850-O A new auction record was set in December 2006 when Heritage sold an NGC MS60 for $49,444. In addition, an auction record was set for an AU58 when Heritage sold a PCGS graded example for $40,251 in June 2007 (interestingly, the exact same coin had brought $34,500 in Heritage’s May 2007 sale). These prices show that demand for high grade, choice 1850-O double eagles is currently very high and if a really nice Mint State piece were to become available, I think it would easily set a record price. I have noticed some price resistance for lower end 1850-O double eagles in the EF45 to AU55. Collectors realize that they can afford to be reasonably fussy when it comes to this date and if the surfaces of a specific example are heavily abraded, the coin will sell at a discount.

1851-O I set a record price for an 1851-O double eagle when I paid $48,875 for a beautiful PCGS MS62 in the Heritage 2006 ANA sale. Interestingly, this is the only high grade 1851-O that has traded publicly since the release of my book in 2006. Until a few years ago, I used to see fairly high grade (AU55 and above) examples of this date with some degree of regularity. This does not seem to be the case anymore which leads me to conclude that either this issue is scarcer than I once believed or that most of the better pieces are in tightly held collections. The 1851-O has a similar Trends value to the 1852-O in higher grade but I feel it should sell for a 10-20% premium.

1852-O I set another record price at Heritage’s 2006 ANA sale when I paid $48,875 for a choice PCGS MS62 1852-O double eagle. Another high quality coin (this piece was graded MS60 by NGC) realized a strong $34,500 in the Heritage October 2006 sale. For a point in time between 2005 and early 2007, it seemed that unattractive, overgraded AU55 and AU58 1852-O double eagles were everywhere. These were selling for levels up to $12,000-14,000 for 58’s which, if you ask me, is a lot of money for a not very nice and not very rare New Orleans double eagle. I believe that nice, accurately graded AU55 and AU58 examples are still scarce but they seem fully valued at current levels. In Uncirculated, the 1852-O is clearly a rare and very desirable coin.

1853-O If there is one New Orleans double eagle that needs a major adjustment in Trends, it is the 1853-O. Current Trends values are $2,000 in EF40, $2,500 in EF45 and $4,500 in AU50. These numbers were probably accurate in 2000-2002 but they are long out-of-date. In 2007, Heritage sold two EF45 1853-O double eagles in their auctions. The first was an NGC EF45 that brought $4,025 in August. The second was a PCGS EF45 that sold for $5,750 in February. Both were decent but neither were PQ or nice enough that they were purchased by dealers as potential "crackout" candidates. I would suggest that Trends be raised to at least $4,000 in EF40 and $6,000 in EF45. A new auction price record for this date was set in August 2006 when an NGC MS61 realized $34,626 in Heritage’s ANA sale. I personally think the 1853-O is a tougher coin in AU55 and higher grades than I once believed and I would not be surprised to see values continue to rise for this issue.

1854-O I’ve come to a pretty major revelation as far as the 1854-O goes. For many years I believed the 1854-O was actually the second rarest double eagle from New Orleans, both in terms of overall and high grade rarity. After carefully observing these two dates for the past few years I now believe that the 1854-O is very slightly rarer in terms of overall rarity and unquestionably scarcer in terms of its high grade rarity. In looking at auction records, it is interesting to note that since 2002, a total of ten 1854-O double eagles have sold in comparison to nine 1856-O double eagles. In this same period, I know of another three or four of each date that have sold via private treaty. I feel that my estimate of 25-35 known for the 1854-O may be a bit on the high side and that the total number known is possibly as low as 20 or coins. In higher grades (in this case AU50 and above) the 1854-O is clearly a rarer coin than the 1856-O. PCGS shows a total of nine coins in AU but only three grade AU55 with none better. I have seen the majority of the 1854-O’s graded AU50 by PCGS and almost all of them are underwhelming, to say the least. I know of only one relatively choice 1854-O (the Dallas Bank Collection coin now owned by a prominent Midwestern collector and graded AU58 by NGC) and only one or two others that, by my standards, grade AU55. (NOTE: I have never seen the NGC AU58 from the S.S. Republic so I do not feel qualified to comment on its quality).

A new auction price record was set for the 1854-O double eagle in August 2007 when a PCGS AU55 sold for $494,500.

1855-O Something odd has happened with this date in regards to its availability. As recently as a few years ago, 1855-O double eagles were seen fairly regularly in higher grades. In fact, at one point (around 2002?) I owned two very nice PCGS AU55’s at the same time and right after I had sold the second of these, I bought yet another. But in the last few years, the supply has almost totally dried up. Heritage’s auction archives shows a total of 17 having been sold since 2002 but I am certain this includes a number of re-offerings plus at least a few lower grade or problem coins. The strong demand for higher grade 1855-O double eagles was clearly seen a month ago when a PCGS AU55 brought $57,500 at auction which is a pretty impressive price when one considers that Trends is only $40,000. This amount is an all-time auction record and I think if a nice AU58 were to become available in the next few months it could bring close to six-figures.

1856-O As I mentioned above, I am now of the opinion that while very similar in overall rarity to the 1854-O, I think my original estimate of 20-30 remains accurate with the total number known probably somewhere in the low end of this range. In AU50 and better, the 1856-O is more available than the 1854-O and there are definitely a few more "nice" examples known than for the 1854-O.

In my book, I think I did a poor job of providing Condition Census information for the 1856-O and here is a listing of the best pieces of which I am currently aware:

1. Private collection, ex: Heritage 6/04: 6372 ($542,800). Graded SP63 by NGC. 2. Midwestern private collection. Graded AU58 by PCGS. Probably ex: Eliasberg: 889. PCGS shows a second coin having been graded AU58. I am reasonably certain that it is not coin #2 but am not aware of its pedigree. NGC also shows two coins graded AU58. One is listed below; the other is not listed as I am not yet certain which example it is. 3. New England collection, ex: Doug Winter 12/07. Graded AU55 by PCGS. 4. Arlington collection, ex: Heritage 7/05: 10399 ($431,250), Bowers and Merena 10/99: 1711 ($105,800; as PCGS AU53), Harry Bass collection. Graded AU55 by PCGS. There are two other coins listed as AU55 by PCGS. I am not certain that these exist but it is possible that coin #6 below may have crossed from an NGC holder to a PCGS holder. 5. Private collection, ex: Bowers and Merena 3/07: 5597 ($356,500; as PCGS AU53). Graded AU58 by NGC. 6. Heritage 7/02: 9472 ($132,250), ex: "Midwestern collection." Graded AU55 by NGC. One of the coins listed above may be the example from the Amon Carter collection listed in the first edition of my New Orleans book.

1857-O No new Condition Census quality examples of this date have turned up in the last two years. There have been a few nice AU55 and AU58s that have sold at auction and I can recall at least one MS60 coin trading privately. I have yet to see any of the Uncirculated coins from S. S. Republic and would be very interested to know how they compare to the non-salvaged high grade pieces that exist. In my opinion, Trends in lower grades needs to be raised significantly. The current listings show $2,500 for an EF40, $4,000 for an EF45 and $5,500 for an AU50. Given the fact that examples in these grades bring way over Trends when they are sold at auction, I would suggest that levels be raised to $5,000 in EF40, $7,000 in EF45 and $10,000 in AU50.

1858-O The all-time auction price record for this date was tied in February 2007 when an NGC MS61 sold for $50,600. This is the same amount that Bass III: 795 brought when it was sold back in May 2000. The difference in quality between these two coins is very significant, however, as the Bass piece is extremely choice. A fair number of nice AU55 and AU58 1858-O double eagles have been available in the last two years and these have brought nearly full Trends (or in some cases over this amount). In EF40 and EF45, Trends seems low ($3,500 and $4,500, respectively) and these values need to be increased.

1859-O The 1859-O has remained an extremely scarce coin in higher grades and the last two choice pieces that have sold at auction (an NGC 55 and a PCGS 55) brought $54,625 and $66,125, respectively. My guess is that the current auction record of $92,000 (set in January 2005 with the sale of a very high end PCGS AU58) will probably be broken within the next year or two; or whenever a Condition Census example becomes available. The certified populations of this date seem to have become somewhat inflated. PCGS shows a total of 42 graded but 26 of these (or almost 62%) are in the various AU grades. My guess is that both AU50 and AU53 populations are inflated plus these include some pieces that are enthusiastically graded. The NGC populations in the higher AU grades are, as expected, a disaster. The current census shows ten in AU55 and eleven in AU58. The less said about these figures, the better.

1860-O A new auction record was set in November 2007 when a PCGS AU58 sold for an astonishing $83,375. But as high as this price seems, when one considers that there are only four 1860-O double eagles graded AU58 by this service, you have to figure that the demand level for high grade 1860-O double eagles will continue to soar. Interestingly, in January 2004, Heritage sold another PCGS AU58; it brought $48,875. The finest known 1860-O remains the PCGS AU58 in a Midwestern collection that is ex: Eliasberg and Atwater. I hate to harp on NGC and their population figures, but here is another date where the current figures from this service are ridiculous. 16 coins graded AU58? I don’t think so...

1861-O The previous auction record of $37,375 has been broken no less than six times since the publication of my book. The current auction record is $51,750 set by Bowers and Merena in March 2007 for the sale of a coin graded AU55 by PCGS. Auction records for AU examples have been fairly plentiful in the past few years. I attribute this to a few factors. The first is that prices have raised enough that a few choice pieces have come out of hiding and onto the market. Secondly, a few of the AU53 to AU55 coins have bounced around from auction to auction; in some cases morphing from NGC to PCGS or upgrading. Finally, I believe that grading standards have loosened more for this particular date than probably any other New Orleans double eagle.

1879-O A very important newly discovered 1879-O was handled by myself and dealer John Dannreuther at the 2006 ANA. This coin was conservatively graded MS60 by NGC and it was notable for having lovely original color and surfaces as well as uncharacteristic satiny luster. It was sold to a New England collector. There are now four or five Uncirculated 1879-O double eagles known to me. Price levels for this date have skyrocketed in nearly all grades in the last few years. In the not-so-distant past, you could buy a decent VF 1879-O double eagle for $3,000-4,000, an EF40 for around $5,000 and a nice EF45 for $7,000 or so. Today, marginal quality VF’s are bringing $20,000-30,000 at auction while EF’s are now worth $30,000+.

New Orleans double eagles have become one of the more popular areas in the current coin market. They are also clearly one of the more challenging and expensive coins to collect. There are only thirteen issues in the series but virtually all of them are hard to find in higher grades and nearly all are expensive as well.

What does the future hold for this area of the market? I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices for marginal quality coins begin to drop as I find it hard to imagine that collectors will, for example, continue to pay $25,000 for a not especially attractive VF example of an 1879-O. But I would not be surprised to see prices continue to rise for the very rare issues (1854-O and 1856-O) and further price increases for the second-level rarities as well (1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O).

How are problem coins valued?

I’ve discussed many times the process in which how nice coins are assigned price levels. But how are problem coins valued? This is an interesting question and one which is becoming a bit easier to answer since NCS coins have become a well-accepted part of numismatics. (Before I begin, I should state here that NCS or Numismatic Certification Service is a division of NGC that certifies and encapsulates “problem coins” which NGC does not see fit to put in their regular holders. This includes coins that are harshly cleaned, polished, heavily scratched, rim filed, etc. NCS only uses adjectival grades—i.e., they would call a coin “AU details” as opposed to “AU55 details.”)

The reason why non-problem coins are easier to value than problem coins is, well, because they don’t have problems. There is a greater degree of consistency of appearance between an 1830 half eagle in PCGS AU55 (or NGC AU55) than there is with this same issue when it has the details of an AU55 but it has been cleaned.

Let me explain what I mean by this. If you were to call me up and offer me an 1830 half eagle in PCGS AU55, I would have a decent idea of what to expect. I’m figuring that it has light wear, a decent amount of remaining luster, maybe a few scattered marks in the fields and probably a pretty good overall appearance. But if you call me an offer me an 1830 half eagle in an NCS holder that states the coin has “AU details” but has been “cleaned,” I’m not sure what to expect. Has it been lightly cleaned or harshly cleaned? Does it have an acceptable appearance or does it look overly shiny from having been polished or perhaps whizzed?

From my experience with viewing NCS coins, there is a very wide range of coins in these holders.

I’ve seen coins that NCS has called “cleaned” that look pretty acceptable to me; not very different, in fact, from coins encapsulated by both NGC and PCGS. I’ve also seen coins placed in NCS holders that had planchet flaws or mint-made surface that, in my opinion, could just as easily be in “normal” NGC or PCGS holders.

But back to cleaned coins and how to value them. As a general rule of thumb, I think that if a coin has been lightly cleaned it is worth around half of what a non-cleaned example would be worth. The NGC or PCGS AU55 1830 half eagle that I mentioned above is a $60,000 coin if it has a decent, original appearance. In an NCS “AU details—cleaned” holder it’s more likely worth $30,000 or so. And if it’s a very harshly cleaned AU coin with some damage as well it is more likely worth in the area of $15,000-20,000.

This brings me to a philosophical question. Would I, as a collector, want to own a very rare but very ugly coin that costs $20,000 or $30,000? I do not personally like problem coins even though I can understand their value and why certain collectors would want, say, an “affordable” example of a desirable coin like an 1808 quarter eagle. But I would rather spend my $20,000 or $30,000 on a coin that was less rare and more aesthetically pleasing. If my budget for a very rare coin like an 1808 quarter eagle was only $20,000-30,000 I would re-examine the “need” for this issue to be in my collection and would spend the money on something nicer.

Remember what I said above about the varying degrees of “cleanedness” or damage seen on NCS coins? I might actually not mind owning an NCS encapsulated 1808 quarter eagle with VF or EF details that had been lightly cleaned and which had a good appearance. The thing to consider, though, is that many other collectors feel the same way and such a coin might actually sell for a value level not much less than a VF or EF that was in a regular NGC or PCGS holder. The real question is would I want to own an 1808 quarter eagle that looked like it was run over by the proverbial train. And if I did, what would I pay for it?

Carolina Circle Collection of Charlotte Gold Coinage

I recently completed cataloging the Carolina Circle Collection of Charlotte gold coinage for Heritage. This collection, which was primarily formed in the 1970’s and 1980’s, is going to be sold by Heritage during their 2008 FUN auction. It is a virtually complete collection, missing only the 1849-C Open Wreath gold dollar and it contains some of the nicest—and freshest—coins from Charlotte that I have seen in some time. I have known the owner of this collection for a number of years and when he made the decision to sell, I suggested that he place the coins in the 2008 FUN auction. About 40% of the collection is housed in very old PCGS and NGC holders and I suggested to this individual that he keep the coins in these old slabs; despite the fact that many of them appeared to be significantly undergraded by today’s standards.

What I really like about this collection is the originality of many of the coins. Almost all of them are in the EF40 to AU58 range and a number are notable for their superb original color and unadulterated surfaces. There are a few individual coins that I think rank as among the most attractive Charlotte gold coins I have ever seen; regardless of date or denomination.

My two favorite gold dollars in this collection are an 1849-C Closed Wreath and an 1850-C. Both are in old PCGS AU58 holders and both, in my opinion, grade considerably finer by today’s standards. I think both coins have great eye appeal and would make excellent additions to a date or type set. I also like the AU55 1857-C gold dollar in this collection. It, too, is in an old green label holder and it seems very choice for the date and grade.

The quarter eagles in the Carolina Circle Collection are outstanding and include a number of Condition Census pieces. Even though it “only” grades NGC AU53, the 1839-C Repunched Date is a lovely original coin and is housed in an old “fatty” holder certain to attract attention. There are PCGS AU55 examples of the 1840-C and 1844-C, both in old green label holders, that are also extremely choice for their designated grade levels. The 1846-C and 1849-C quarter eagles are both also graded AU55 by PCGS.

There are two quarter eagles in this collection that I think are absolutely wonderful coins. The 1852-C is in an old green label PCGS AU58 holder but it appears far choicer than this. I absolutely love this coin’s coloration and I personally regard it as the third finest known for the date, trailing only the Bass II and Elrod coins.

I also really like the 1855-C in this collection. I had never seen or heard of this coin before I went to examine this group a few months ago and I’m sure I let out a big gasp when I first saw it. It is currently in a PCGS MS61 holder but I personally feel it is nicer than this. What I like best about this coin is its freshness as evidenced by its glowing frosty luster, lovely rose-gold color and extremely clean surfaces. It is probably the third finest known example of this rare date and it is the nicest 1855-C I have seen since the incomparable Bass coin was first sold in 1999.

The half eagles in this collection are complete and include a number of important and choice pieces. One that is certain to capture a lot of viewer attention is an 1838-C in PCGS AU58. While reasonably common in lower grades, this date is rare in AU and the current PCGS population is just three in AU58 with a single example higher.

The 1840’s half eagles in the Carolina Circle collection are, for the most part, very nice coins and this includes solid AU examples of the 1840-C, 1841-C, 1844-C and 1846-C. There is an 1842-C Large Date in an old green label PCGS AU55 that seems extremely choice for the grade, in my opinion.

The half eagle in this collection that will probably generate the most interest is the 1842-C Small Date. It is currently housed in an old ANACS AU50 holder but it appears to be considerably nicer than this. As you may or may not know, this is the rarest collectible issue from this mint and the typical piece is well worn with poor eye appeal. The example in this collection is lightly marked, well struck and original with good color and a very pleasing naked-eye appearance.

There are other less glamorous but very attractive half eagles in the Carolina Circle collection as well. An 1847-C in an older PCGS holder has superb color and great eye appeal. The 1851-C, graded AU50 by PCGS many years ago, seems to be way undergraded and it has an exceptional strike for the issue as well as superb deep yellow-gold color. The 1853-C, housed in a green label PCGS AU58 holder, is also attractively toned in rich, natural shadings.

If you follow the rare gold coin market you know that Charlotte coinage has been somewhat out-of-favor for the last few years. I predict that this collection will help to jumpstart this market. It’s been a number of years since this many fresh, attractive pieces have been offered for sale and, typically, when collection like this are sold, new collectors become interested in getting a set started.

For more information on this collection, feel free to contact me and I also suggest that keep an eye on Heritage’s website. I expect that the lots for the FUN sale will be posted sometime around the middle of December.

November 2007 Whitman Baltimore Coin Expo

Even though it involves a schlep of Biblical Proportions, I really enjoy the tri-annual Whitman Baltimore Coin Expo. I can count on three shows each year that will be professionally run, well-attended and extremely active from both a wholesale and retail perspective. In many ways, Baltimore is the new Long Beach. Prior to the beginning of the show, Stack’s conducted an impressive 3,800+ lot auction. I made the decision not to attend this sale in person as I did not want my Baltimore Experience to stretch into a nearly one week marathon. I did have a Trusted Agent look at a small number of coins for me and I placed a group of what I thought were strong bids. And I proceeded to get blown out of the water. While I can’t comment on the entire auction, the coins that interested me went for numbers that were pretty insane, to say the least.

The first day of the Baltimore show (Thursday) is dealer-only and, to tell you the truth, I like this very much. Having only wholesale business on this day let’s me get more done and it lets me focus strongly on buying.

But because of the fact that I had some interesting fresh coins with me, I spent most of Thursday selling. And selling. And selling some more. I had around fifteen CAC-stickered type coins and with the exception of two that I was asking very strong prices for, they all sold quickly. I can’t say for certain that it was because of the CAC stickers or because type coins are suddenly in demand. My guess is that it is a combination of the two.

So what sold? As I mentioned above, type coins that were attractive or scarce dates or, better yet a combination of the two were in great demand. I would look for this to be a very strong area of the market in 2008. I sold a number of great Carson City coins at the show including two nice AU 1870-CC half eagles, a Condition Census 1871-CC, a solid AU 1875-CC and a really cool secret coin from the 1880’s that I promised the dealer I sold it to that I wouldn’t tell anyone. I also sold a few big-time early gold coins, two proof gold coins and a group of New Orleans gold including some scarcer date eagles.

Generic gold was very active at the show. From what I could tell, demand was high but prices were quite volatile. As an example, at the beginning of the show on Thursday, MS65 Saints were bringing $1,400. But after a few people were short, prices slowly climbed and by the end of the show they were bringing $1,475.

The doors opened to the public on Friday and a Thundering Herd of Serious Collectors stampeded through the doors as the clock struck 10:00. OK, maybe it wasn’t a stampede but the room crowded up quickly and I ran into a majority of the serious collectors from the East Coast that I know by the early afternoon. People at this show definitely come to buy and not to tire kick and I sold a number of very interesting coins.

I typically leave a Baltimore show on Friday but business was so brisk that I rebooked my flight and stayed for the rest of the day. I continued being busy right up until the end of the day and left the bourse floor tired but very satisfied.

The good news about this show, as I mentioned, was that my sales were pretty exceptional. The not-so-good news is that my buying was good but not great. I loved what I bought but I would have liked to have spent a lot more money.

For me, the year is essentially over. I will still be buying and selling coins but my travel is done with the exception of a quick trip to Dallas before Christmas to view Heritage 2008 FUN sale auction lots.

My guess is that from now until the end of the year, things will be reasonably slow in Coin Land although if gold continues its upward ramble towards the $1,000 mark we might see some surprise rare coin activity.

U.S. Coin Pricing Guides

When someone really, truly figures out how to properly compile and market an accurate, real-time pricing guide for United States coins, they are going to become very wealthy and very popular. Because, at this point in time, the pricing mechanisms for most rare United States coins are a mess. Let me explain what I mean. Let’s say you want to buy an 1858-C half eagle graded AU55 by PCGS or NGC. You do not have the coin in hand but you have seen an image of it on a dealer’s website or in an on-line auction. What’s your next step?

You’ll probably do one of two things. If you are a specialized collector you’ll look up its valuation in Coin World Trends or in the CDN Quarterly Summary. The former shows its value to be $5,000. The latter, unfortunately, does not list values for AU55 coins—only AU50 and AU58, so in this particular case it is essentially useless.

What, you ask yourself, does this value of $5,000 actually mean? If you read the fine print in a copy of “Coin Values” you will see that Coin World considers its publication to be a retail price guide. It also states “values are listed for coins that are strictly graded in each grade category according to current market standards.” So does this mean that the collector should expect to pay $5,000 for an 1858-C half eagle in AU55? Unfortunately, Trends is not really clear in explaining this.

The next step for most collectors is to search an on-line database of prices realized at auction. The Heritage Auction Prices Archives, as I have pointed out many times before, is an incredible resource with over 1,125,000 auction lots listed.

In looking up the 1858-C half eagle in AU55, a few things become apparent. The first is the frequency with which this date appears at auction. There were a total of nine different auction appearances in 2006 plus another five in 2005. Even if we assume that some were the same coin(s) sold more than once, fourteen appearances in two years is a high degree of frequency. Thus, we can make the assumption that this coin isn’t really that rare from the standpoint of total number known and it should, therefore, sell at a discount relative to Trends. The fact that it is not a terribly popular or “important” issue (like the 1838-C or 1839-C half eagles) probably would increase this discount relative to Trends.

The next thing I would look at is the most recent auction records for AU55’s. They are as follows: $3,220, $2,990, $5,750 and $5,175. Clearly, this is a huge range and this is where I think using auction price data without proper interpretation can be very misleading for the collector.

Looking back at my catalogs for each of these four AU55 coins, my notes stated the following. For the coin that brought $3,220 I felt it was decent for the grade and I think the buyer got a pretty good deal on this. The coin that sold for $2,990 was “very ugly” in my opinion and even though this was very cheap, it is a case of getting what you pay for. The coin that sold for $5,750 was in an old green label PCGS holder and I graded it “58+,” meaning I thought it had a good shot to grade Uncirculated if resubmitted. And the coin that realized $5,175 was, I felt, “very choice and original” and would upgrade to AU58.

Four coins, same date, same grade...but prices that range from a low of $2,990 to a high of $5,750.

What pricing sheets do not help the collector with is the diversity of quality within a specific grade. These prices tell me that a really lousy 1858-C half eagle in AU55 is probably worth around $3,000; or 60% of Trends. A coin that is decent for the grade (not spectacular but not something that you look at and go “yuck”) is worth around $3,250. A coin that is very nice for the grade (not an upgrade candidate but a piece that has attractive natural color and surfaces) is worth $3,750 or so. And a really high end coin (one that is a seeming candidate to upgrade to AU58) is worth anywhere from $4,500 to $5,500.

Confused yet?

No commercial pricing sheet is going to be able to give you four different quality levels for each grade. We’d be talking about a massive undertaking and a project that few people are qualified to undertake. But it can be done. Collectors of Large Cents rely on a pricing guide called CQR which gives three price ranges for a host of grades for every die variety from 1793 to 1814. This is clearly a labor of love (I can’t imagine that the publishers are getting rich publishing CQR!) but it provides advanced collectors with a set of pricing applications that, within a highly specialized series, makes sense.

What if this specialized pricing were to be applied to various other series? What if some clever entrepreneur got together a group of leading experts and had them be in charge of detailed pricing for a highly specialized market segment? As an example, you could have Stewart Blay, David Schweitz and Andy Skrabalak collectively create and maintain a database for Mint State and Proof Lincoln Cents. If I were a collector of these coins, I think I would pay $100 per year to have access to this pricing that might not be available anywhere else. By charging this amount, the owner of the pricing service could at least defray some of his expenses.

I would expect that as the coin market evolves in the future, we will start seeing some experiments with specialized pricing. I could see this idea working very well for popular series like Bust half dollars and Indian Head cents and I don’t think it would be hard to create categories of quality for popular series such as Morgan dollars (by this I mean an “A” level for extremely nice coins, a “B” level for average to above average coins and a “C” level for below average coins). Most experts, myself included, already grade coins by category and quantifying this information would be relatively simple.

Civil War Gold Coins

In the last few years, a number of Civil War coins have greatly appreciated in value and have become among the most sought-after United States gold issues by collectors. These include the 1861-D gold dollar and half eagle and the 1861-O and 1861-S Paquet Reverse double eagles. But, for some reason, the 1861-C half eagle has not achieved the cult status of these other issues from 1861; despite the fact that it is rare, interesting and historical in its own right. The 1861-C half eagle is the final coin produced at the Charlotte mint. It is the only Charlotte coin which bears the magical 1861 date and it has an original mintage of just 6,879. It is believed that 887 were struck in May, 1861 under the supervision of the Confederacy. If it were possible to determine with certainty which coins were struck by the Confederacy, I believe that they would among the most valuable and desirable of all the coins produced at this mint.

According to one theory, the coins produced by the Confederacy show a relatively extensive die crack on the reverse which begins at the rim over the first A in AMERICA and travels from the left serif of the M in AMERICA through the tops of the lettering to the middle of the I and then into the rim. These late die state coins also show scattered areas of rust on the reverse.

I have kept careful records of this date and in the past fifteen years or so, I have seen around 75 different pieces. Of these, I recorded ten that had this late state of the die break as well as die rust. Given that fewer than 10% of the original mintage are Confederate strikings, this survival rate is fairly plausible although by no means definitive.

As I mentioned above, the 1861-C half eagle has lost some of its appeal in the past decade or so. At one time it was considered to be one of the key dates in the Charlotte half eagle series and it was priced at a level fairly comparable to the 1861-D half eagle. Today, the 1861-D trades for considerably more and it appears on many more want lists. In my opinion, the 1861-C is now undervalued.

I estimate that there are around 125 or so known with most in the VF to EF range. I think there are 25-30 properly graded AU pieces and most of these grade AU50 to AU53. The 1861-C becomes very scarce in AU55 to AU58 and it is extremely rare in Uncirculated. I have only seen two or three that I regard as true Mint State coins. The finest is the ex: Elrod coin that has been graded MS63 by both PCGS and NGC. It last sold for $59,800 in the Heritage 2000 FUN sale and is owned by an Alabama collector.

The 1861-C half eagle is found with a good quality of strike which is interesting when one considers that the two half eagles made prior to this (1859-C and 1860-C) are the two worst struck coins ever produced by this mint. The reverse is the same as that used to make the majority of half eagles struck in 1858-C and it lacks the clogged appearance and extensive die damage seen on the 1859-C and 1860-C reverse.

The surfaces on most 1861-C half eagles are quite heavily abraded, leading me to think that nearly the entire mintage went directly into circulation and that most were used extensively in commerce. A number also show mint-made planchet flaws. The luster on higher grade 1861-C half eagles is mostly frosty with some satiny texture. It is almost impossible to find a piece that has original undisturbed luster due to the aforementioned surface abrasions as well as the fact that many have been dipped or cleaned over the years. The coloration seen ranges from deep green to a lighter yellow-gold shade. Very few remaining examples have natural color. Locating an 1861-C half eagle with good eye appeal is extremely difficult.

The population figures from PCGS and (especially) NGC appear to be highly inflated by resubmissions. NGC shows 23 (!) coins in AU58 as well as another 15 in AU55 while PCGS’s figures of nearly 50 coins in the various AU grades seems heavily inflated as well.

As I mentioned above, at current price levels the 1861-C half eagle appears to be good value. A nice EF coin, if you can find one, is going to run in the $4,500-5,500 range. I think the best value grade for this date is an AU53 which is worth around $8,000-10,000. In the higher AU grades, price levels jump to $12,500-15,000 for an AU58. I am aware of a few examples graded MS61 by NGC that have traded in the $30,000-40,000 range. I think a no-questions-asked Uncirculated example is a great value at this level but, as I mentioned above, I haven’t seen many in MS61 holders that I thought were legitimately “new.”

I’ve got to think that when (notice I didn’t say “if”) Charlotte gold coinage becomes popular again, the 1861-C will regain its place among the pantheon of popular Civil war related issues which are in great demand among collectors. It is a personal favorite of mine and it is an issue that I actively look to purchase when I am coin shows or examining auction listings.

Reconnecting With Collecting

Even though I am a dealer who has a reputation as being very pro-collector, I hadn’t actually collected anything numismatic (with the exception of 19th century books and catalogs) for a number of years. Being a dealer and a collector simultaneously is very difficult and I certainly did not ever want to find myself in a situation where I was debating whether to sell a new purchase or to keep it for my collection. This changed around two years ago when I let myself get talked into collecting National Bank Notes. A dealer friend of mine had been an avid collector of Nationals from his home state for a number of years and his enthusiasm was contagious. I started to dabble and, before I knew it, I was hooked. Two years later, I am a confirmed Natty-holic.

So what have I learned in my reconnection with collecting and what sort of advice can I give to you, the collector? Following are a few ideas. Please note that although I am collecting paper money, I think the gist of what I am saying is applicable to coins as well.

Specialization Works For Me

I’m the sort of collector who would rather be very knowledgeable in a few areas than semi-knowledgeable in many. That’s why I decided to focus on just one specific state for my National Currency collection. I feel the same way about coins. I’ve written this a jillion times before but I am strong believer in the adage that being strongly focused as a collector makes you stronger at assembling a really great collection. Now, I don’t necessarily believe in being ultra-specialized. I could care less about varieties that are impossible to see without strong magnification and I am, in my own way, as much of a type collector within my specialization as I am a date collector. But every time I get bored and think that I should expand my collection to include another state or two, I realize that this is a bad idea and that I’d rather have a great specialized collection that a random group of interesting pieces.

Eye Appeal is Everything

If an object isn’t aesthetically appealing to me I don’t want it in my collection, no matter how rare it is. I’ve already been faced with situations where I have had the chance to purchase a very rare but very ugly note. In every one of these situations, I’ve chosen to pass on the note. Even though I plan on assembling a set that includes at least one piece from every town that issued notes, I am not yet in the mindset that I’ll buy something that’s ugly just because it is very rare. I would assume that, as my collection progresses, I will have to buy some pieces that are duds from the standpoint of appearance. But these will probably be among the last items I purchase and they will be made with a degree of regret. I have also reached the conclusion that, at this point in my collecting career, I would rather have a really pretty duplicate example of an interesting note (or coin) than a single example of a rare but unattractive issue.

Having an Expert In My Corner

While my level of expertise has clearly improved greatly since I’ve started my collection, I will be the first to admit that I am not yet an expert. While I think I have a pretty good eye, I am not yet sophisticated enough to detect very good alterations to notes. That’s why I’ve elected to have a really smart dealer be my representative at auctions. In my opinion, paying him 5% for his expertise is one of the best deals I can imagine. I’m certain he’s already saved me from myself at least a few times and he’s also encouraged me to be more aggressive on items that I should probably be buying but was figuring too cheaply. As a beginner, it’s really hard to collect without someone assisting you and I, for one, can heartily recommend establishing a good working relationship with one or two experts in your chosen specialization.

Older Is Better

In the field of paper money, you can neatly divide the body of all notes issued into two parts: large size and small size. When I first collected, I focused on small size notes. They were cheaper and more available. But as I looked at more notes and became more sophisticated, I gravitated towards large size notes. Using a very basic analogy, I came to see the division in notes as the equivalent of early coins (basically pre-1900) versus modern coins (post-1900). When I was a coin collector, I always preferred older coins and, in fact, never purchased any pieces struck after 1890. At this point in my collecting career I am willing to spend more money on older notes and to have fewer pieces in my collection. That said, I will buy small size notes but they have to have a very strong “coolness factor” for me to give them consideration.

Establishing a Comfort Zone

While I am very comfortable buying notes in the $500-5,000 range for my collection, I still do not feel comfortable enough to buy very expensive notes. A few months ago I was given the opportunity to purchase a small group of very rare (and expensive) notes that would have unquestionably taken my collection to the next level. But they were priced at levels that exceeded my comfort zone and I decided to pass on them. In retrospect, I wish that I had purchased at least one or two of them but, to be frank, I’m just not quite comfortable enough with my new collection to spend this amount of money. In another year or two, I probably will. And I think this is good advice for any collector. Establish a comfort zone for the first few years you collect and don’t exceed it until you feel that you are ready to do so.

Use the Best Resources Available to You

When I first started collecting coins as a child, information was hard to come by. You had to guess at how rare coins were and pricing was essentially a crapshoot. Today, there is a staggering amount of great information available to collectors in almost all areas. I quickly learned that for National bank notes, I had amazing resources available. To learn more about the notes, I bought Don Kelley’s incredible reference book. To get an idea of rarity, I purchased Kelley’s census information. And for pricing, I referred to the CAA/Heritage auction archives and Sandy Bashover’s Track and Price software. For coins, there is comparable—if not superior—price and rarity information available for nearly every series. In my opinion, the accessibility of this information has made collecting more fun than ever.

Make Some Collecting Friendships

Collecting tends to be a solitary pursuit but I’ve found that one of the real benefits from buying any sort of object is the friendships that you make in the pursuit phase. I have two close dealer friends who both happen to be collectors of National bank notes. Whenever a new auction catalog arrives in the mail, I know I can count on getting emails from both of my friends about the notes in the sale that they think I will be interested; just like I send them emails about the notes from their states that I think they will be bidding on. And after the sale is over, we inevitably compare our success from the sale. What’s really funny about this is that the three of us almost never talk about coins, even though we are all extremely successful in this arena. But when we meet up for dinner at a coin show, the talk inevitably turns to our collections. To me, this is an extremely satisfying part of collecting; maybe THE most, in fact.

Think Long Term

When I buy a note, I don’t worry about flipping it for a quick profit. I’m assembling my collection over the long term and hope to have at least fifteen to twenty years worth of effort into it before I even consider selling it. That’s not to say that I won’t at some time in the future analyze my holdings and make a decision to weed out the duplicates and the duds. But I’ve found that buying for the long term makes collecting alot more fun. I’m using funds that I don’t have to worry about for more pressing needs and I look at my collection as a long-term asset that is going to provide my family and I with some nice income when I’m old and no longer interested in it.

As I mentioned above, I’ve really enjoyed my foray back into collecting. I think it’s made me a better dealer and I’m looking forward to expanding my collections in the coming years. And who knows—maybe I’ll even start to buy coins again!

The Milas Collection of No Motto Half Eagles

One of the most ambitious collecting projects ever undertaken was the No Motto half eagle set assembled by Chicago dealer Ed Milas. Not only did Mr. Milas attempt to assemble a complete set of these rare coins (struck between 1839 and 1866) but he did it, for the most part, in the highest grade possible. After working on this set for the better part of two decades, Milas sold his coins at auction through Stack’s in May, 1995. The Milas set included 98 coins and was lacking only the 1842-C Small Date, 1854-S, 1863 and 1864-S to be totally complete. The coins ranged in grade from mid-AU to MS66 and included a host of individual pieces that were either Finest Known or high in the Condition Census for that specific issue. I would still rate this as one of the single greatest specialized U.S gold collections ever formed and it was one of the most interesting auctions that I ever attended.

I had seen a number of Ed’s coins on a piece-meal basis and had even sold him a few high-end Charlotte and Dahlonega coins indirectly. But it was with real excitement that I went to New York to view a collection that had attained true cult status among rare gold coin collectors and dealers alike.

I remember being very surprised to see that the Milas Collection had been sent to NGC to be graded. Stack’s, in the mid-1990’s seemed to sell far fewer encapsulated coins than their competitors and my initial reaction on viewing the coins in their holders was that NGC had gotten a little bit carried away in grading them. Of course today, these same coins in the same 1995 holders would seem almost quaintly undergraded.

What I remember most about this collection, nearly a decade and a half after the fact, was the wonderful quality of the coins. They were the sort of No Motto mint half eagles that you almost never see today. Most had wonderful original color, blazing luster and had never been enhanced. A number traced their origin to famous collections that had been sold in the 1980’s and early 1990’s including Eliasberg, James Stack, Jimmy Hayes, Bareford and Garrett.

From the standpoint of appearance and overall grade, the Philadelphia half eagles were the highlight of the collection. Coin after coin graded MS63, MS64 or even MS65 and I remember a number of the ex: Eliasberg coins having absolutely sensational fiery orange-gold coloration. Two coins that I really loved were the 1850 (graded MS65 by NGC) that was so amazingly fresh and crisp in appearance it looked like it had been made last week and the MS66 1852 that, to this day, rates as one of the single finest No Motto half eagles of any date that I have seen. As I recall, many of these Philadelphia pieces were purchased by dealer Steve Contursi.

The Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles in the Milas collection included some of the most famous (and most mind-blowing) high grade pieces known. It’s hard for me to pick a favorite as there were so many fantastic single coins. I remember the amazing MS65 1841-D that Ed Milas had bought a year earlier out of the James Stack collection for a record $88,000. In the Stack’s sale, a year later, it went for a relatively low $68,750. The Dahlonega half eagle in the sale that I liked the best was an 1853-D in MS64. While this date is relatively common in Uncirculated, this particular example (ex: Auction ’84 and Bareford) had absolutely superb color and surfaces. It brought $55,000 which I remember being a TON of money at the time. Most of the Dahlonega coins in the sale (as well as a majority of the Charlotte pieces) were purchased by dealer Winthrop Carner. Ironically, Carner ran into financial problems soon after the sale and many of the Milas coins were re-offered at the Numisma ‘95 auction where they brought considerably less than what Carner had paid for them earlier in the year.

The one Charlotte coin that everyone wanted to see in the sale was Milas’ 1859-C which NGC had graded MS66. Formerly from the Eliasberg collection, this coin remains the only Charlotte half eagle ever graded above MS65. I remember being a bit underwhelmed by the coin when I first saw it in 1995 (I saw it again a few years ago and was blown away by it...) and thought it had been the beneficiary of a push by NGC. It sold for $104,500 and it became the first Charlotte gold coin to eclipse the six-figure mark at auction.

What really excited me in this collection, though, were the New Orleans half eagles. They were amazing; probably the finest set ever assembled. The one coin that I really, really wanted to buy was the 1842-O graded MS63 by NGC. It is the finest known of three examples in Uncirculated and it has a fantastic pedigree (ex: Eliasberg and Earle collections). This was a rare instance where I liked a coin so much that I wanted to buy it to stash it away. In the end, I was the underbidder and it brought $31,900 which seems very, very reasonable today. I was able to purchase a number of the other New Orleans half eagles in the sale and I’ve handled a few of these two, three or even four times since the Milas auction in 1995(!)

If someone wanted to replicate this collection today, I’m certain it could not be done. Many of the Milas coins have, in the ensuing years, been processed and no longer show the superb, original look they had back in 1995. The number of very high grade, totally original Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles has greatly diminished since 1995 and I’m not certain that many of the high quality Philadelphia and San Francisco half eagles in the Milas collection could be replicated today either.

I hate to sound like Grandpa Winter but they just don’t have sales today like they did with the Milas collection back in 1995...