U.S. Coin Pricing Guides

When someone really, truly figures out how to properly compile and market an accurate, real-time pricing guide for United States coins, they are going to become very wealthy and very popular. Because, at this point in time, the pricing mechanisms for most rare United States coins are a mess. Let me explain what I mean. Let’s say you want to buy an 1858-C half eagle graded AU55 by PCGS or NGC. You do not have the coin in hand but you have seen an image of it on a dealer’s website or in an on-line auction. What’s your next step?

You’ll probably do one of two things. If you are a specialized collector you’ll look up its valuation in Coin World Trends or in the CDN Quarterly Summary. The former shows its value to be $5,000. The latter, unfortunately, does not list values for AU55 coins—only AU50 and AU58, so in this particular case it is essentially useless.

What, you ask yourself, does this value of $5,000 actually mean? If you read the fine print in a copy of “Coin Values” you will see that Coin World considers its publication to be a retail price guide. It also states “values are listed for coins that are strictly graded in each grade category according to current market standards.” So does this mean that the collector should expect to pay $5,000 for an 1858-C half eagle in AU55? Unfortunately, Trends is not really clear in explaining this.

The next step for most collectors is to search an on-line database of prices realized at auction. The Heritage Auction Prices Archives, as I have pointed out many times before, is an incredible resource with over 1,125,000 auction lots listed.

In looking up the 1858-C half eagle in AU55, a few things become apparent. The first is the frequency with which this date appears at auction. There were a total of nine different auction appearances in 2006 plus another five in 2005. Even if we assume that some were the same coin(s) sold more than once, fourteen appearances in two years is a high degree of frequency. Thus, we can make the assumption that this coin isn’t really that rare from the standpoint of total number known and it should, therefore, sell at a discount relative to Trends. The fact that it is not a terribly popular or “important” issue (like the 1838-C or 1839-C half eagles) probably would increase this discount relative to Trends.

The next thing I would look at is the most recent auction records for AU55’s. They are as follows: $3,220, $2,990, $5,750 and $5,175. Clearly, this is a huge range and this is where I think using auction price data without proper interpretation can be very misleading for the collector.

Looking back at my catalogs for each of these four AU55 coins, my notes stated the following. For the coin that brought $3,220 I felt it was decent for the grade and I think the buyer got a pretty good deal on this. The coin that sold for $2,990 was “very ugly” in my opinion and even though this was very cheap, it is a case of getting what you pay for. The coin that sold for $5,750 was in an old green label PCGS holder and I graded it “58+,” meaning I thought it had a good shot to grade Uncirculated if resubmitted. And the coin that realized $5,175 was, I felt, “very choice and original” and would upgrade to AU58.

Four coins, same date, same grade...but prices that range from a low of $2,990 to a high of $5,750.

What pricing sheets do not help the collector with is the diversity of quality within a specific grade. These prices tell me that a really lousy 1858-C half eagle in AU55 is probably worth around $3,000; or 60% of Trends. A coin that is decent for the grade (not spectacular but not something that you look at and go “yuck”) is worth around $3,250. A coin that is very nice for the grade (not an upgrade candidate but a piece that has attractive natural color and surfaces) is worth $3,750 or so. And a really high end coin (one that is a seeming candidate to upgrade to AU58) is worth anywhere from $4,500 to $5,500.

Confused yet?

No commercial pricing sheet is going to be able to give you four different quality levels for each grade. We’d be talking about a massive undertaking and a project that few people are qualified to undertake. But it can be done. Collectors of Large Cents rely on a pricing guide called CQR which gives three price ranges for a host of grades for every die variety from 1793 to 1814. This is clearly a labor of love (I can’t imagine that the publishers are getting rich publishing CQR!) but it provides advanced collectors with a set of pricing applications that, within a highly specialized series, makes sense.

What if this specialized pricing were to be applied to various other series? What if some clever entrepreneur got together a group of leading experts and had them be in charge of detailed pricing for a highly specialized market segment? As an example, you could have Stewart Blay, David Schweitz and Andy Skrabalak collectively create and maintain a database for Mint State and Proof Lincoln Cents. If I were a collector of these coins, I think I would pay $100 per year to have access to this pricing that might not be available anywhere else. By charging this amount, the owner of the pricing service could at least defray some of his expenses.

I would expect that as the coin market evolves in the future, we will start seeing some experiments with specialized pricing. I could see this idea working very well for popular series like Bust half dollars and Indian Head cents and I don’t think it would be hard to create categories of quality for popular series such as Morgan dollars (by this I mean an “A” level for extremely nice coins, a “B” level for average to above average coins and a “C” level for below average coins). Most experts, myself included, already grade coins by category and quantifying this information would be relatively simple.

Civil War Gold Coins

In the last few years, a number of Civil War coins have greatly appreciated in value and have become among the most sought-after United States gold issues by collectors. These include the 1861-D gold dollar and half eagle and the 1861-O and 1861-S Paquet Reverse double eagles. But, for some reason, the 1861-C half eagle has not achieved the cult status of these other issues from 1861; despite the fact that it is rare, interesting and historical in its own right. The 1861-C half eagle is the final coin produced at the Charlotte mint. It is the only Charlotte coin which bears the magical 1861 date and it has an original mintage of just 6,879. It is believed that 887 were struck in May, 1861 under the supervision of the Confederacy. If it were possible to determine with certainty which coins were struck by the Confederacy, I believe that they would among the most valuable and desirable of all the coins produced at this mint.

According to one theory, the coins produced by the Confederacy show a relatively extensive die crack on the reverse which begins at the rim over the first A in AMERICA and travels from the left serif of the M in AMERICA through the tops of the lettering to the middle of the I and then into the rim. These late die state coins also show scattered areas of rust on the reverse.

I have kept careful records of this date and in the past fifteen years or so, I have seen around 75 different pieces. Of these, I recorded ten that had this late state of the die break as well as die rust. Given that fewer than 10% of the original mintage are Confederate strikings, this survival rate is fairly plausible although by no means definitive.

As I mentioned above, the 1861-C half eagle has lost some of its appeal in the past decade or so. At one time it was considered to be one of the key dates in the Charlotte half eagle series and it was priced at a level fairly comparable to the 1861-D half eagle. Today, the 1861-D trades for considerably more and it appears on many more want lists. In my opinion, the 1861-C is now undervalued.

I estimate that there are around 125 or so known with most in the VF to EF range. I think there are 25-30 properly graded AU pieces and most of these grade AU50 to AU53. The 1861-C becomes very scarce in AU55 to AU58 and it is extremely rare in Uncirculated. I have only seen two or three that I regard as true Mint State coins. The finest is the ex: Elrod coin that has been graded MS63 by both PCGS and NGC. It last sold for $59,800 in the Heritage 2000 FUN sale and is owned by an Alabama collector.

The 1861-C half eagle is found with a good quality of strike which is interesting when one considers that the two half eagles made prior to this (1859-C and 1860-C) are the two worst struck coins ever produced by this mint. The reverse is the same as that used to make the majority of half eagles struck in 1858-C and it lacks the clogged appearance and extensive die damage seen on the 1859-C and 1860-C reverse.

The surfaces on most 1861-C half eagles are quite heavily abraded, leading me to think that nearly the entire mintage went directly into circulation and that most were used extensively in commerce. A number also show mint-made planchet flaws. The luster on higher grade 1861-C half eagles is mostly frosty with some satiny texture. It is almost impossible to find a piece that has original undisturbed luster due to the aforementioned surface abrasions as well as the fact that many have been dipped or cleaned over the years. The coloration seen ranges from deep green to a lighter yellow-gold shade. Very few remaining examples have natural color. Locating an 1861-C half eagle with good eye appeal is extremely difficult.

The population figures from PCGS and (especially) NGC appear to be highly inflated by resubmissions. NGC shows 23 (!) coins in AU58 as well as another 15 in AU55 while PCGS’s figures of nearly 50 coins in the various AU grades seems heavily inflated as well.

As I mentioned above, at current price levels the 1861-C half eagle appears to be good value. A nice EF coin, if you can find one, is going to run in the $4,500-5,500 range. I think the best value grade for this date is an AU53 which is worth around $8,000-10,000. In the higher AU grades, price levels jump to $12,500-15,000 for an AU58. I am aware of a few examples graded MS61 by NGC that have traded in the $30,000-40,000 range. I think a no-questions-asked Uncirculated example is a great value at this level but, as I mentioned above, I haven’t seen many in MS61 holders that I thought were legitimately “new.”

I’ve got to think that when (notice I didn’t say “if”) Charlotte gold coinage becomes popular again, the 1861-C will regain its place among the pantheon of popular Civil war related issues which are in great demand among collectors. It is a personal favorite of mine and it is an issue that I actively look to purchase when I am coin shows or examining auction listings.

Reconnecting With Collecting

Even though I am a dealer who has a reputation as being very pro-collector, I hadn’t actually collected anything numismatic (with the exception of 19th century books and catalogs) for a number of years. Being a dealer and a collector simultaneously is very difficult and I certainly did not ever want to find myself in a situation where I was debating whether to sell a new purchase or to keep it for my collection. This changed around two years ago when I let myself get talked into collecting National Bank Notes. A dealer friend of mine had been an avid collector of Nationals from his home state for a number of years and his enthusiasm was contagious. I started to dabble and, before I knew it, I was hooked. Two years later, I am a confirmed Natty-holic.

So what have I learned in my reconnection with collecting and what sort of advice can I give to you, the collector? Following are a few ideas. Please note that although I am collecting paper money, I think the gist of what I am saying is applicable to coins as well.

Specialization Works For Me

I’m the sort of collector who would rather be very knowledgeable in a few areas than semi-knowledgeable in many. That’s why I decided to focus on just one specific state for my National Currency collection. I feel the same way about coins. I’ve written this a jillion times before but I am strong believer in the adage that being strongly focused as a collector makes you stronger at assembling a really great collection. Now, I don’t necessarily believe in being ultra-specialized. I could care less about varieties that are impossible to see without strong magnification and I am, in my own way, as much of a type collector within my specialization as I am a date collector. But every time I get bored and think that I should expand my collection to include another state or two, I realize that this is a bad idea and that I’d rather have a great specialized collection that a random group of interesting pieces.

Eye Appeal is Everything

If an object isn’t aesthetically appealing to me I don’t want it in my collection, no matter how rare it is. I’ve already been faced with situations where I have had the chance to purchase a very rare but very ugly note. In every one of these situations, I’ve chosen to pass on the note. Even though I plan on assembling a set that includes at least one piece from every town that issued notes, I am not yet in the mindset that I’ll buy something that’s ugly just because it is very rare. I would assume that, as my collection progresses, I will have to buy some pieces that are duds from the standpoint of appearance. But these will probably be among the last items I purchase and they will be made with a degree of regret. I have also reached the conclusion that, at this point in my collecting career, I would rather have a really pretty duplicate example of an interesting note (or coin) than a single example of a rare but unattractive issue.

Having an Expert In My Corner

While my level of expertise has clearly improved greatly since I’ve started my collection, I will be the first to admit that I am not yet an expert. While I think I have a pretty good eye, I am not yet sophisticated enough to detect very good alterations to notes. That’s why I’ve elected to have a really smart dealer be my representative at auctions. In my opinion, paying him 5% for his expertise is one of the best deals I can imagine. I’m certain he’s already saved me from myself at least a few times and he’s also encouraged me to be more aggressive on items that I should probably be buying but was figuring too cheaply. As a beginner, it’s really hard to collect without someone assisting you and I, for one, can heartily recommend establishing a good working relationship with one or two experts in your chosen specialization.

Older Is Better

In the field of paper money, you can neatly divide the body of all notes issued into two parts: large size and small size. When I first collected, I focused on small size notes. They were cheaper and more available. But as I looked at more notes and became more sophisticated, I gravitated towards large size notes. Using a very basic analogy, I came to see the division in notes as the equivalent of early coins (basically pre-1900) versus modern coins (post-1900). When I was a coin collector, I always preferred older coins and, in fact, never purchased any pieces struck after 1890. At this point in my collecting career I am willing to spend more money on older notes and to have fewer pieces in my collection. That said, I will buy small size notes but they have to have a very strong “coolness factor” for me to give them consideration.

Establishing a Comfort Zone

While I am very comfortable buying notes in the $500-5,000 range for my collection, I still do not feel comfortable enough to buy very expensive notes. A few months ago I was given the opportunity to purchase a small group of very rare (and expensive) notes that would have unquestionably taken my collection to the next level. But they were priced at levels that exceeded my comfort zone and I decided to pass on them. In retrospect, I wish that I had purchased at least one or two of them but, to be frank, I’m just not quite comfortable enough with my new collection to spend this amount of money. In another year or two, I probably will. And I think this is good advice for any collector. Establish a comfort zone for the first few years you collect and don’t exceed it until you feel that you are ready to do so.

Use the Best Resources Available to You

When I first started collecting coins as a child, information was hard to come by. You had to guess at how rare coins were and pricing was essentially a crapshoot. Today, there is a staggering amount of great information available to collectors in almost all areas. I quickly learned that for National bank notes, I had amazing resources available. To learn more about the notes, I bought Don Kelley’s incredible reference book. To get an idea of rarity, I purchased Kelley’s census information. And for pricing, I referred to the CAA/Heritage auction archives and Sandy Bashover’s Track and Price software. For coins, there is comparable—if not superior—price and rarity information available for nearly every series. In my opinion, the accessibility of this information has made collecting more fun than ever.

Make Some Collecting Friendships

Collecting tends to be a solitary pursuit but I’ve found that one of the real benefits from buying any sort of object is the friendships that you make in the pursuit phase. I have two close dealer friends who both happen to be collectors of National bank notes. Whenever a new auction catalog arrives in the mail, I know I can count on getting emails from both of my friends about the notes in the sale that they think I will be interested; just like I send them emails about the notes from their states that I think they will be bidding on. And after the sale is over, we inevitably compare our success from the sale. What’s really funny about this is that the three of us almost never talk about coins, even though we are all extremely successful in this arena. But when we meet up for dinner at a coin show, the talk inevitably turns to our collections. To me, this is an extremely satisfying part of collecting; maybe THE most, in fact.

Think Long Term

When I buy a note, I don’t worry about flipping it for a quick profit. I’m assembling my collection over the long term and hope to have at least fifteen to twenty years worth of effort into it before I even consider selling it. That’s not to say that I won’t at some time in the future analyze my holdings and make a decision to weed out the duplicates and the duds. But I’ve found that buying for the long term makes collecting alot more fun. I’m using funds that I don’t have to worry about for more pressing needs and I look at my collection as a long-term asset that is going to provide my family and I with some nice income when I’m old and no longer interested in it.

As I mentioned above, I’ve really enjoyed my foray back into collecting. I think it’s made me a better dealer and I’m looking forward to expanding my collections in the coming years. And who knows—maybe I’ll even start to buy coins again!

The Milas Collection of No Motto Half Eagles

One of the most ambitious collecting projects ever undertaken was the No Motto half eagle set assembled by Chicago dealer Ed Milas. Not only did Mr. Milas attempt to assemble a complete set of these rare coins (struck between 1839 and 1866) but he did it, for the most part, in the highest grade possible. After working on this set for the better part of two decades, Milas sold his coins at auction through Stack’s in May, 1995. The Milas set included 98 coins and was lacking only the 1842-C Small Date, 1854-S, 1863 and 1864-S to be totally complete. The coins ranged in grade from mid-AU to MS66 and included a host of individual pieces that were either Finest Known or high in the Condition Census for that specific issue. I would still rate this as one of the single greatest specialized U.S gold collections ever formed and it was one of the most interesting auctions that I ever attended.

I had seen a number of Ed’s coins on a piece-meal basis and had even sold him a few high-end Charlotte and Dahlonega coins indirectly. But it was with real excitement that I went to New York to view a collection that had attained true cult status among rare gold coin collectors and dealers alike.

I remember being very surprised to see that the Milas Collection had been sent to NGC to be graded. Stack’s, in the mid-1990’s seemed to sell far fewer encapsulated coins than their competitors and my initial reaction on viewing the coins in their holders was that NGC had gotten a little bit carried away in grading them. Of course today, these same coins in the same 1995 holders would seem almost quaintly undergraded.

What I remember most about this collection, nearly a decade and a half after the fact, was the wonderful quality of the coins. They were the sort of No Motto mint half eagles that you almost never see today. Most had wonderful original color, blazing luster and had never been enhanced. A number traced their origin to famous collections that had been sold in the 1980’s and early 1990’s including Eliasberg, James Stack, Jimmy Hayes, Bareford and Garrett.

From the standpoint of appearance and overall grade, the Philadelphia half eagles were the highlight of the collection. Coin after coin graded MS63, MS64 or even MS65 and I remember a number of the ex: Eliasberg coins having absolutely sensational fiery orange-gold coloration. Two coins that I really loved were the 1850 (graded MS65 by NGC) that was so amazingly fresh and crisp in appearance it looked like it had been made last week and the MS66 1852 that, to this day, rates as one of the single finest No Motto half eagles of any date that I have seen. As I recall, many of these Philadelphia pieces were purchased by dealer Steve Contursi.

The Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles in the Milas collection included some of the most famous (and most mind-blowing) high grade pieces known. It’s hard for me to pick a favorite as there were so many fantastic single coins. I remember the amazing MS65 1841-D that Ed Milas had bought a year earlier out of the James Stack collection for a record $88,000. In the Stack’s sale, a year later, it went for a relatively low $68,750. The Dahlonega half eagle in the sale that I liked the best was an 1853-D in MS64. While this date is relatively common in Uncirculated, this particular example (ex: Auction ’84 and Bareford) had absolutely superb color and surfaces. It brought $55,000 which I remember being a TON of money at the time. Most of the Dahlonega coins in the sale (as well as a majority of the Charlotte pieces) were purchased by dealer Winthrop Carner. Ironically, Carner ran into financial problems soon after the sale and many of the Milas coins were re-offered at the Numisma ‘95 auction where they brought considerably less than what Carner had paid for them earlier in the year.

The one Charlotte coin that everyone wanted to see in the sale was Milas’ 1859-C which NGC had graded MS66. Formerly from the Eliasberg collection, this coin remains the only Charlotte half eagle ever graded above MS65. I remember being a bit underwhelmed by the coin when I first saw it in 1995 (I saw it again a few years ago and was blown away by it...) and thought it had been the beneficiary of a push by NGC. It sold for $104,500 and it became the first Charlotte gold coin to eclipse the six-figure mark at auction.

What really excited me in this collection, though, were the New Orleans half eagles. They were amazing; probably the finest set ever assembled. The one coin that I really, really wanted to buy was the 1842-O graded MS63 by NGC. It is the finest known of three examples in Uncirculated and it has a fantastic pedigree (ex: Eliasberg and Earle collections). This was a rare instance where I liked a coin so much that I wanted to buy it to stash it away. In the end, I was the underbidder and it brought $31,900 which seems very, very reasonable today. I was able to purchase a number of the other New Orleans half eagles in the sale and I’ve handled a few of these two, three or even four times since the Milas auction in 1995(!)

If someone wanted to replicate this collection today, I’m certain it could not be done. Many of the Milas coins have, in the ensuing years, been processed and no longer show the superb, original look they had back in 1995. The number of very high grade, totally original Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles has greatly diminished since 1995 and I’m not certain that many of the high quality Philadelphia and San Francisco half eagles in the Milas collection could be replicated today either.

I hate to sound like Grandpa Winter but they just don’t have sales today like they did with the Milas collection back in 1995...

Rekindling Your Numismatic Passion

I’ve seen it happen many times in the past few years. An avid new collector storms into the hobby and buys lots of coins but then hits critical mass and thinks about leaving numismatics. What can you do as a collector who has reached the “burnout” phase to rekindle your passion for numismatics? The first thing I would suggest is to get all of your coins together and lay them out on a table or desk. Take a good hard look at them and decide what deserves to be in the collection and what does not. If you are like any new collector, it is likely that in your initial burst of enthusiasm, you bought coins that you shouldn’t have. In retrospect, they may be ugly or they just don’t fit in with the core collection you have. My best advice is to jettison them.

Now I’m not suggesting a fire sale. The best way to sell the coins is an orderly, organized fashion. You might do it yourself or select a dealer to help you. Or, you could always choose to put the coins in an auction. If possible, give yourself at least 90-120 days to plan and execute a strategy that makes sense.

It is likely that some of the “duds” that you originally purchased are going to be losers when it comes time to sell. Assuming that you are out of love forever with a specific coin, it’s alright to sell it for a loss. Just make certain that use this as a learning experience and try not to repeat this specific mistake in the future. (FYI, even smart dealers sometimes have to sell coins for losses. Really smart dealers get out of their bad deals as quickly as possible and reinvest their money in other coins that, hopefully, will be better deals).

The next thing I would suggest to recharge your battery is to take the next $500-1,500 you were going to spend on a coin and use it to form a basic library. Buy the five to ten essential books that should be in every collector’s library and then buy useful books in your chosen field(s) of specialization. I would also suggest buying a core group of auction catalogs from the 1980’s and 1990’s as well. Find a numismatic literature dealer and tell him that you collect Liberty Seated quarters or Type Three double eagles and the chances are good that he can recommend some older but still very useful catalogs that can greatly enhance your collecting experience.

Taking the numismatic literature theme one step further, get a current auction catalog from a specialist dealer like George Kolbe, Charles Davis or Fred Lake and buy some interesting 19th or early 20th century books or catalogs. As an example, the upcoming Kolbe sale of the John Pittman library has some really wonderful books and catalogs that will make a great test for your numismatic DNA. If you find everything in the catalog to be boring and the history of numismatics and its personalities has no appeal to you, maybe you are being sent a message: coins just aren’t in your blood. But if you find some of the obscure books, catalogs, letters and manuscripts to be very exciting, then you can take this as a message: coins are in your blood but you just need to reinvigorate your interest.

Collecting "Significant" Coins

As rare coins become more expensive and harder to locate, collectors have to develop new strategies. I know of a number of collectors who are adopting a technique that I find very interesting. These collectors don’t necessarily specialize in any specific series or mint. Instead, they focus on coins that they consider “significant” or “special.” So what exactly is a “significant” or “special” coin? I would define such an item as something that, if I were at a coin show, would stop me dead in my tracks as I was strolling down the aisle looking in each dealer’s case. I might regard a particular coin as being special because it is a fully struck example of a coin that nearly always is found weakly detailed. Or, I might regard a coin as being significant (I use the two terms interchangeably) because it has great original color.

What are some of the other criteria I would base my collection of special coins on? Some would be as follows:

History: I personally like coins that have an interesting history. This might mean that an issue was struck during the first year of a design or in the final year. It may have been struck during an important period of our history (World War I or the Civil War) or was used during the Gold Rush. One of the truly appealing things to me about Numismatics in general is its historic connotations and I certainly want the majority of the coins in my collection to have a special sense of history about them.

Provenance: Some collectors could care less about the history of ownership of their coins. To me, in some ways, this is even more interesting than the coins themselves. I might not ordinarily care about a coin like a 1794 Large Cent but if I learn that it has a wonderful 125+ year pedigree including having been owned by some famous collectors I would buy it; even if it didn’t “fit” into my collection. For me, the pedigrees that are important include the modern giants such as Pittman, Norweb, Bass and Eliasberg and more esoteric collectors from the 19th and early 20th century whose names are known to me mainly from my years of collecting old auction catalogs.

Beauty: The more coins I see, the more I realize how few truly beautiful United States coins still exist. By “beautiful” I do not mean a coin’s design. From an artistic standpoint, I personally feel that most American regular issue designs are mediocre at best. What I am referring to is more of an aesthetic sense of a coin’s appearance. In other words, I like coins that are pretty. I like Bust half dollars with rings of concentric iridescent toning from storage in old coin boards. I like Dahlonega half eagles with dark natural crust on their obverse and reverse. I like blazing, lustrous coins that don’t look like they just came from the Lab.

Scarcity: I like coins that are fundamentally rare. By this, I mean issues that are rare in all grades, not just in Super Grades. I recently sold an 1859-S in VF25 (for less than $2,000) and as I researched this coin, I realized that it was truly rare. To me, it was more exciting than the common date Three Dollar gold piece in PR65 that I had sold earlier in the day for $30,000. The Proof coin was pretty and it was certainly rare but, for some reason, the circulated 1859-S quarter was far more appealing to me. When one or more of the factors that I listed come together, then this can make for a special coin. As an example, a piece that I would regard as truly irrestible would be a 1794 half dollar pedigreed to a famous Chapman Brothers auction from the 1890’s with lovely original coloration in the VF-AU grade range. It’s got history (the first half dollar struck), an interesting pedigree, the right “look” and it is a genuinely scarce coin. After I purchased it, would I instantly become a collector of early half dollars? Probably not. In fact, I might not ever buy another half dollar. But this coin would be incredibly appealing to me because it satisfies all of my criteria in determining what makes a numismatic item “special” or “significant.”

The Condition Census Defined

I make frequent reference to the term “Condition Census” in many of my articles, blogs and individual coin descriptions but it has been brought to my attention that some beginning collectors do not know what this term means. The concept of the Condition Census is credited to Dr. William Sheldon who employed it in the late 1940’s with the publication of his seminal work “Early American Cents.” The census was a “scientific” way of arriving at a coin’s value by listing, in serial order, the finest known example of a specific die variety and then a list of the next five finest. For each specific variety of early cent, a “basal value” was listed and a coin’s worth on the open market would be that value times the grade. As an example, if a specific variety had a basal value of $5 and it was graded EF40 by Sheldon’s standards, the value of the coin would be approximately $200.

This system seems somewhat quaint in the coin market of the 21st century, but the concept of the Condition Census has been co-opted to apply to a host of other series besides Large Cents. In some cases, the system is practical; in others it clearly is not.

When specifically applied to United States gold coins, the concept of a Condition Census sometimes makes sense. As an example, it is possible for an expert to create a list of the five or six finest examples of a rare issue such as an 1841-D quarter eagle. It is not practical to create a list of the five or six finest 1924 double eagles as there are numerous examples that could qualify in the Condition Census and it is virtually impossible to substantiate a claim that one is better than the other.

Sheldon’s concept of basal value certainly no longer applies to coins (when they became $10,000+ items, how could you establish an accurate basal value?) but the validity of listing the finest known examples of a specific date or major variety remains interesting to collectors. And the value of such a listing has become more and more important as collectors enter their sets into the PCGS and NGC Registries.

Most of my books have included listings of finest known and Condition Census branch mint gold coins. But beginning with my new book on New Orleans gold, I have stopped listing a Condition Census. I did this for a number of reasons. The first is that grading standards for most gold coins have clearly changed. So it made little sense to list a coin that last appeared at auction in 1997 versus another similarly graded coin that appeared for sale in 2005; in nearly all cases the 1997 coin was clearly better. The second factor was that owners of these coins (mainly dealers) were continually breaking them out of one holder and putting them into another in attempt to increase the value of the coin. It looked ridiculous, in my opinion, to have the same Condition Census coin appear in my listings as a PCGS MS61, then as an NGC MS62 and still later as a PCGS MS62.

What I have tried to do to replace this system is to list “significant examples” of a certain date. As an example, if there are five Uncirculated examples of a specific New Orleans half eagle known to exist, I’ve tried to list them all. They may not necessarily be listed in order from “best” to “worst” but I have included their prices realized when they appeared at auction and let the numbers speak for themselves.

One problem with a Condition Census listing is that there is a somewhat arbitrary nature in creating any such list. Grading will always have a degree of subjectivity attached to it and a coin that is graded MS61 may, in my opinion, not be as nice as one graded MS62 or even MS63. Let me give you a great example. A few years ago I was asked to look through what was probably the single greatest collection of Dahlonega gold ever assembled. For nearly every date, the collector had multiple coins and, in some cases, he had what were probably the first, second and even third finest known. He made the decision to reduce his holdings and wanted me to select the single coin for each date that I thought was the finest. I remember choosing an 1855-D half eagle in AU58 as a nicer coin than one in MS63 and eventually listed the AU58 coin ahead of the MS63 (both coins were graded by PCGS, in case you were wondering...) in my Dahlonega Condition Census listings.

A Condition Census listing is only valid if the person making the list is very knowledgeable and has no ulterior motive for making one coin “better” than another. I’ve always been impressed by the Large Cent collectors who, for the love of the game, keep meticulous Census listings not only for each variety but, in some instances, for die states. Now that’s what Numismatics is all about!

Early Eagles, 1795-1804: A Date by Date Analysis

Until the establishment of the double eagle in 1849, the Eagle (or Ten Dollar gold piece) was the highest denomination produced by the United States mint. These coins were struck from 1795 through 1804 but this denomination was discontinued until 1838 when the new Gobrecht Liberty Head design was introduced. Early Eagles have proven to be very popular with collectors over the years. These coins are big and beautiful and more available than the quarter eagles and half eagles produced during this time period. The dates from the 1790’s have proven to be especially popular and price levels have risen to record highs during the last few years.

Here is a date by date analysis of these coins which is written with the new collector in mind.

1795

All eagles produced from 1795 through the first part of 1797 are found with a Draped Bust obverse and a Small Eagle reverse. The 1795 has two major varieties. The more common of the two is seen with thirteen leaves on the reverse. The rarer of the two has nine leaves on the reverse. Generally, collectors focus on the more available 13 leaves but the 9 leaves is recognized by both PCGS and NGC. Advanced collectors generally include this variety in a date set of early eagles, even when they do not focus on other die varieties. (FYI, there are a total of five die varieties for this issue).

There were of 5,583 1795 eagles produced. It is believed that around 5,083 employed the 13 leaves reverse while the remainder used the 9 leaves reverse. There are an estimated 400-500 1795 eagles known, including around 15-20 of the 9 leaves coins. Most 1795 eagles grade in the VF to EF range. AU coins are scarce but available. Properly graded AU55 to 58 coins are very scarce and Uncirculated coins are rare although they are far more available than the 1796 or 1797 Small Eagle. Most of the Uncirculated pieces in the MS60 to MS62 range are not choice. Examples exist in MS63 and MS64 and I am aware of at least four of five Gems that have been graded MS65 or better by PCGS or NGC. The 9 leaves variety is usually seen in AU and appears to not have circulated much. There are probably six to eight Uncirculated examples with the finest grading MS63.

The 1795 tends to be the best struck and most aesthetically appealing of the Small Eagle ten dollar gold pieces. The typical example has some weakness on the obverse hair behind the ear and at the lower portion of the cap. The stars are sometimes flat at the centers and on many the denticles are flatly impressed. The reverse shows weakness on the eagle’s neck and head and the denticles are often flat with a partially beveled appearance. The surfaces often show numerous small marks and on many of the 9 leaves coins, there are mint-made die chips and/or planchet defects in the fields. The luster is often frosty with a somewhat grainy texture. Some are known with reflective prooflike surfaces and at least a few have fully prooflike fields on the obverse and reverse. The natural coloration tends to be a deep yellow-gold. Others are seen with orange-gold or greenish-gold hues. There are a number of higher grade 1795 eagles with superb color but these are becoming very hard to find as more and more are dipped. Most circulated 1795 eagles show processed surfaces and original, attractively toned pieces are rare and worth at least a 20% premium over a typical example. There are a good number of extant 1795 eagles with acceptable eye appeal. The collector who is seeking one is urged to be patient as most of the examples offered for sale at auction or at coin shows are low end for the grade.

An “entry level” 1795 eagle is now worth in the area of $40,000-50,000 and a nice, solidly graded AU will cost at least $50,000-70,000+. Expect to spend over $100,000 for a nice Uncirculated example and multiples of this for a piece that approaches Condition Census.  

1796

Because of the fact that it is not a first-year-of-issue coin like the 1795, the 1796 has long been less popular than its counterpart. Until recently, it was even priced at a lower level. But collectors have learned that this is a much rarer date, especially in higher grades, and it now commands a significant premium over the 1795.

The reported mintage figure for the 1796 eagle is 4,146. It is likely that 150 or so are known today with most grading EF45 to AU55. The 1796 is quite rare in the higher AU grades and it is extremely rare in Uncirculated. I believe that as few as four to six true Uncirculated pieces are known with the best grading MS63.

The 1796 is not as well struck or as well produced as the 1795. On the obverse of most 1796 eagles, there is weakness of strike at the center and the hair behind Liberty’s face tends to be very weak with little actual definition. The radial lines in the stars seldom show full detail but the denticles are more clearly defined than on the 1795 eagle. The reverse is slightly better struck than the obverse. The weakest areas tend to be the eagle’s head and neck. The wing feathers are often sharply defined and the denticles are clearly evident. The surfaces are usually heavily abraded and have a pebbly texture that is probably the result of poor preparation of the planchet. I have seen many 1796 eagles that had substantial planchet voids or other mint-made defects. Any example with choice, minimally marked surfaces is extremely rare. The luster tends to be prooflike and it is usually impaired as a result of improper handling or heavy circulation. The natural coloration is a deep orange-gold hue. Most 1796 eagles have been cleaned at one time and any piece with attractive natural color is very rare. The level of eye appeal for this date is well below average.

Until a few years ago, it was possible to buy a nice example of the 1796 eagle for a reasonable figure. Today, the collector can expect to spend at least $75,000-85,000 for a decent example and well over $100,000 for a choice piece. A nice, unquestionably Uncirculated 1796 eagle would probably sell for over $200,000 today were it to become available.  

1797 Small Eagle

Two distinct types of eagles exist from this year: the Small Eagle and the Heraldic Eagle. This is the only early eagle in which two types exist for one year and this makes the Small Eagle issues popular with type and date collectors.

The mintage figure for this issue is reported to be 3,615 but I believe that the actual number is lower. There are an estimated four to five dozen known with most in the EF45 to AU55 range. In Uncirculated, the 1797 Small Eagle is an exceptionally rare coin with probably no more than four or five pieces known. NGC has graded one in MS63 while PCGS has graded an MS62; none are better at either service.

The quality of strike seen on the 1797 Small Eagle is generally better than that found on the 1796. The 1797 has some flatness at the central obverse and on the radial lines of the stars; the reverse is usually much sharper than the obverse with very good detail seen at the center and border. On most, there is an obverse die crack from the final star up towards Liberty’s throat. The surfaces are often hairlined or abraded and many I have seen show mint-made adjustment marks. The luster is much different in texture than the 1796 with a dull, slightly reflective finish that is sometimes a bit frosty. The natural coloration seen on the 1797 Small Eagle is a light to medium greenish-gold. Very few exist that have not been cleaned or processed and original pieces are worth a considerable premium. The eye appeal for this date is generally below average and choice, attractive pieces are usually only offered for sale when important specialized collections of early gold become available.

Collectors who budget less than $100,000 for an example of this variety will probably not be able to purchase a 1797 Small Eagle. A nice AU coin will cost $125,000-150,000+ and a solid Uncirculated, if available, will run over $200,000.

1797 Large Eagle

The Heraldic Eagle reverse was added to United States gold coins in 1797. The 1797 Large Eagle is by far the more available of the types of eagles produced this year. Of the 10,940 struck, there are probably in the area of 300-400 known.

Unlike the 1795-1797 Small Eagle coins, the 1797 Large Eagle appears to have actually seen some circulation and pieces can be found in grades as low as Fine to Very Fine. Most are in the EF40 to AU55 range and examples can sometimes be found in the lower Uncirculated grades. But this issue becomes very rare in MS62 and it is excessively rare above this. NGC has graded a single coin in MS64 but the best I have personally seen is an MS63 and only two or three are known which grade as such.

The quality of strike is extremely distinctive for this issue. On the typical coin, the obverse appears to be much weaker than the reverse. I have seen pieces which, for example, have EF45 detail on the obverse but the appearance of AU55 or better on the reverse. The obverse is usually weak at the center with little definition seen on the hair strands. The denticles are also very weak and on some pieces they are lacking from 2:00 to 7:00. The reverse is much better struck with good detail seen on the eagle’s wings and on the shield. The surfaces are usually very heavily abraded and, for some reason, the obverse fields on many examples show roughness. The luster tends to be excellent with a range of textures seen. Many are very frosty but I have seen a few that were almost fully prooflike. The natural color is a deep yellow-gold and this can be exceptionally attractive on uncleaned, original higher grade pieces. The eye appeal ranges from well below average to above average. It is possible to locate a very nice 1797 Large Eagle ten dollar gold piece but collectors have come to realize that choice, higher grade pieces are much harder to find than once believed.

Until a few years ago, the 1797 Heraldic Eagle sold for about the same price as the more common 1799. But prices have risen dramatically for the 1797 in recent years and, today, an EF example sells for around $30,000 while AU coins range from $40,000 to $60,000 depending on their quality. For a nice Uncirculated piece, expect to spend at least $75,000-100,000 and possibly alot more depending on the coin’s eye appeal and originality.  

1798/7 13 Stars Arranged 9 Left, 4 Right

Two varieties of 1798 eagle are known. Both are quite rare but the 1798/7 Stars 9+4 is clearly the more available of the two. The mintage figure for this variety has long been reported to be 900 coins but a number of experts believe that this figure is too low. I personally think the right number is more in the area of 1,500. I feel that there are around 60-80 pieces known with most in the EF50 to AU55 range. Properly graded AU58’s are quite rare and this variety is very rare in Uncirculated with perhaps as many as five or six known. The highest graded examples are a single MS63 at NGC and an MS62 at PCGS.

This is another early Eagle that has a very distinctive appearance due to its strike. The obverse is always weaker than the reverse and it tends to show weak peripheral detail from 2:00 to 5:00. The left side of the obverse is always sharper than the right and most examples have a thin but easily visible obverse die crack from the L in LIBERTY into the cap. The reverse is better struck although the left wing tends to have weakness. The surfaces on nearly all known examples are noticeably abraded and many show hairlines from past cleanings. It is also common to see 1798/7 9+4 eagles with heavy adjustment marks. The luster tends to be subdued with a slightly reflective appearance. The natural color is a medium green-gold with orange hues sometimes seen as well. I cannot recall having seen more than a small handful that had original, attractive color. This is a very rare coin with good eye appeal and most examples that are offered for sale are low end and/or overgraded.

The 1798/7 Stars 9+4 is one of the scarcer early eagles although its availability is actually a bit greater than sometimes stated. You can expect to spend at least $75,000-85,000 for an average quality example and over $100,000 for a solid, high end AU. If available, an Uncirculated piece will cost at least $200,000 and possibly much more for one of the finest known.

1798/7 13 Stars Arranged 7 Left, 6 Right

The second variety of eagle struck in 1798 is the rarest early eagle (not including, of course, the 1795 9 leaves). The mintage is reportedly 842 but I think this is on the high side and the actual number is more likely in the area of 500-600. There are only 20-25 pieces known and, surprisingly, most are in the AU grade range. I am aware of just two or three Uncirculated examples with the finest of these being a coin graded MS62 by PCGS.

The 1798/7 Stars 7+6 is a better produced variety than its 9+4 counterpart. The obverse shows good detail although the center has a slightly sunken appearance which can cause some weakness on the hair behind Liberty’s ear. Many of the stars have full radial lines and the denticles are long and fully formed. Many have a number of obverse die cracks including one through the E in LIBERTY and another at the left side of star seven. The surfaces on most examples have small mint-made flaws including chips and voids. These are seen most often in the obverse fields and the reverse tends to be better produced. The luster is slightly dull and grainy in texture. The majority of 1798/7 Stars 7+6 eagles have been cleaned at one time and, as a result, it is nearly impossible to locate an example with good luster and nice overall eye appeal.

This is a very rare coin in any grade and an issue that is generally only made available when major collections are sold at auction or via private treaty. The 1798/7 Stars 7+6 is clearly the key date in the early Eagle series. Plan on spending at least $200,000-250,000 for an average quality specimen and considerably more than this for one that approaches Condition Census.  

1799

I regard the 1799 as the “High Relief of Early Gold.” In other words, it is common and probably somewhat overvalued but since it is a big beautiful coin (and it has the magic 1790’s date) it will always be in great demand.

37,449 examples were struck and I estimate that as many as 750-1,000 are known today. The 1799 eagle can be found in a wide variety of grades. It is plentiful in EF and AU and not especially rare in the lower Uncirculated grades. It becomes scarce in MS63 and it is rare in MS64. Gems are extremely rare with maybe as few as five or six known.

1799 eagles can be found with sharp strikes. Most are seen with some weakness on the hair strands below Liberty’s cap and at the center of the reverse but it is possible with some patience to find an example that is sharp. The surfaces on most examples show signs of mishandling and some pieces have mint-made adjustment marks. It is possible to locate a piece with choice surfaces but this can be challenging. The luster on this issue is excellent and it is better than on any other dates of this type. High grade examples are often richly frosty. A smaller number are known with semi-reflective or even fully reflective fields but I personally prefer the coins with a frosty appearance. The natural coloration ranges from an intense yellow-gold to a deeper greenish-gold or even orange-gold. It has become hard to find 1799 eagles with original color and examples with good eye appeal are worth a premium.

There are no less than ten different die varieties known for this date. Some collectors divide 1799 eagles into two collectible varieties: Small Stars and Large Stars. The former is the scarcer of the two although it does not generally command much of a premium.

For the type collector, the 1799 is a perfect selection as it is probably the most available early eagle and it comes with a nice appearance. Expect to spend at least $25,000-30,000 for a decent quality piece and $40,000-50,000+ for a solid Uncirculated example.

1800

The mintage figure for this date is reported to be 5,999 coins but this almost certainly includes examples dated 1801. The actual number of eagles struck in 1800 is probably more in the area of 7,500-10,000 coins. There are an estimated 225-325 known with most in the EF45 to AU55 range. The 1800 eagle is very scarce in the lower Uncirculated grades and it becomes quite rare in MS62. It is very rare in MS63 and extremely rare in MS64. PCGS has never graded a coin MS65 while NGC has graded just one at this level.

The quality of strike seen on the 1800 eagle varies. Some are found with reasonably good strikes while others are fairly weak at the centers, especially on the obverse. On most pieces, the obverse stars are flat at the centers and show incomplete radial lines. The reverse is usually better detailed. The surfaces on nearly all pieces show numerous abrasions and many have mint-made planchet imperfections which are frequently seen in the obverse fields. The luster is excellent with higher grade, original pieces having a rich, frosty texture that can be among the best seen on any early eagle. The natural coloration ranges from reddish-gold to yellow-gold and very few examples remain that have not been cleaned or dipped. The eye appeal for this date is generally below average. There are a few higher grade pieces that are visually stunning (the Pittman coin comes to mind) but most seen in today’s market are mediocre at best.

The 1800 generally sells for a 15-20% premium over a common date like a 1799 or an 1801 and this seems to be about right given its overall scarcity. A nice AU example will cost in the $35,000-40,000+ range while Uncirculated pieces range in price from $50,000 to well over $100,000.  

1801

The reported mintage figure for this date (44,344) includes coins dated 1800 (see above). The 1801 is the most common early eagle with as many as 750-1000 known including low grade and damaged pieces. The 1801 is common in circulated grades and it can be found in MS60 to MS62 without a great deal of difficulty. It is scarce in MS63 and rare in properly graded MS64. Gems are extremely rare. PCGS has graded three in MS65 and none better while NGC has graded just a single coin in MS65 and none better.

This is generally a well struck coin with some of the best detail seen on any date of this type. The obverse is usually very sharp with the center well defined; the reverse is also sharp although most have some weakness in the wings. Many examples have a number of mint-made vertical spines in the cap and show die clashes as well. The surfaces are typically abraded but are better produced than the 1799 and 1800. Examples exist which are comparably clean and free of marks and these are very scarce. I have seen a number of 1801 eagles that had prominent adjustment marks. The luster is not as good as on the 1799 but it is still among the best seen on any early eagle. It is most often frosty in texture. The natural coloration is usually green-gold or a bright yellow-gold. Locating uncleaned, original 1801 eagles is, as one might expect, very difficult and such coins command a premium versus the typical overdipped, processed piece.

The 1801 is comparable in overall rarity to the 1799 but, in my experience, it is a bit more scarce in MS63 and higher grades. It is less popular than the 1799 as it lacks the magical 1790’s date and it is priced a bit lower in certain cases. A nice AU example will run in the $30,000-40,000 range while Uncirculated pieces will cost $45,000 and up.

1803

After a one-year hiatus, production of eagles resumed in 1803. During this year, the reported mintage was 15,017 but it was believed that some of this figure includes coins dated 1804. There are an estimated 400-500 examples known and this date, while regarded as fairly common, is clearly scarcer than the 1799 or 1801.

There are a total of six die varieties and this includes three interesting naked eye varieties. The most common has small stars on the reverse. Another variety has 13 large stars on the reverse. The rarest and most unusual variety has a tiny fourteenth star punched on the reverse which is hidden in the cloud below F in OF. This is one of the most interesting and enigmatic varieties in the entire early eagle series.

The quality of strike of this date depends on the die variety. Certain examples are quite weak on the base of Liberty’s neck and the lower right stars on the obverse. Others are sharper in these areas but show weakness at the centers. The surfaces on most 1803 eagles are very heavily abraded and many display pronounced adjustment marks. It is very hard to locate a coin with choice surfaces. The luster is typically below average as well with many showing a grainy, slightly dull texture. The natural color ranges from green-gold to a more reddish hue. It is hard to find an 1803 eagle with good eye appeal, especially the Large Reverse Stars.

The Large Reverse Stars and 14 Reverse Stars are both recognized by PCGS and NGC and they command a strong premium over the more common Small Reverse Stars. It is still possible to cherrypick the 14 Stars variety although most collectors and dealers now know to closely check the reverse.  

1804

This represents the final year during which early eagles were struck. After 1804, the denomination was discontinued and not resurrected until 1838. The mintage figure for this issue is reported to be 3,757 but I believe this includes coins dated 1803 and that the actual number struck is more in the area of 2,500-3,000. All examples produced in 1804 are distinguished by a Crosslet 4 in the date and it is likely that as few as 75-85 pieces are known. Most are seen in the EF45 to AU53 range and high end AU’s are extremely scarce. In Uncirculated, the 1804 eagle is quite rare with an estimated six to eight accounted for. The finest of these include a single MS64 at NGC and a pair of MS63’s at PCGS.

Many 1804 eagles are distinguished by an odd strike in which the obverse appears to be buckled with ridges or waves in the fields. Coins from this die state are very difficult to grade as they tend to show considerable weakness on both the obverse and reverse. Examples are known that show a bolder, more even strike and these are considered to be especially desirable by specialists. The surfaces on many 1804 eagles have mint-made imperfections and most show handling marks or hairlines from past cleanings as well. The luster is frosty and some examples are slightly prooflike. The natural coloration is a distinctive green-gold but most have been dipped at one time. The eye appeal tends to be below average, mainly due to the strike characteristics described above.

An estimated 6 to 8 Proof 1804 Plain 4 eagles were struck in 1834 or 1835. One of these is included in the famous King of Siam Proof Set. The Proof 1804 eagles are considered among the most desirable of all early United States gold coins even though they were struck three decades after their date.

1804 eagles are currently valued at around $40,000 for an EF and $50,000-75,000+ for an AU. Uncirculated pieces, when available, are valued at $100,000 or more.

The early eagles struck between 1795 and 1804 form one of the most interesting groups of coins in all of American numismatics. They are extremely popular with collectors and despite the high cost of assembling such a set, there are a number of collectors who are working on date sets; some of which even feature the major naked-eye varieties for each year.

September 2007 Long Beach Show Review

I had very little in the way of expectations for the third and final version of this year’s Long Beach coin show. In my opinion, the show was slightly above average, primarily due to interest caused by the surge in metals price. I thought that set-up (on Wednesday) was a bit perkier than usual for a Long Beach. I sold coins to dealers who I don’t ordinarily do much business with but who are so in need of nice coins that they are, literally, doing everything they can to find material. One dealer, who was working a want list that included a number of scarcer Liberty Head double eagles, was able to find a few scarce dates in my inventory. I also sold virtually all of my generic gold to another dealer.

With auctions being as strong as they are these days, I decided to again focus my buying attention on the bourse floor. I was able to purchase more interesting coins than I would have expected at a Long Beach show. Some of the highlights are as follows:

A nice group of New Orleans gold dollar including a Condition Census PCGS MS63 1850-O

A spectacular 1867 quarter eagle in PCGS MS65, which is the Finest Known

A lovely PCGS VF25 1870-CC half dollar

An NGC NS60 example of the underrated 1882-O eagle

A superb PQ NGC MS62 1837 quarter eagle

Thursday saw a decent number of collectors attending the show, including a couple of new faces. I sold a few nice quality branch mint gold coins to brand-new collectors; something that hasn’t happened at a Long Beach for quite some time.

Friday, on the other hand, was very slow with poor attendance and limited dealer enthusiasm. Clearly, this show is pretty much over by Friday afternoon and most collectors, at this point, are hanging around and waiting for the evening auction session(s).

I can’t say that I’m sorry that I won’t be attending another Long Beach show until the Winter of 2008. None of the three I was at in 2007 were exactly barn-burners. My next two shows, in Atlanta and Baltimore, respectively, are sponsored by Whitman so, at the very least, I know they will be very well attended and professionally run.

I have also acquired a wonderful complete set of Carson City half eagles which I will be breaking up. The coins in this set range in grade from AU50 to MS63 and include a number of Finest Known and Condition Census pieces. If you have a specific want list that includes any of these, please call me or email me and let me know what you are looking for. Most are very high end for the grade with great original color and surfaces.