The Carson City Double Eagle Market: An Analysis

It’s been a while since I’ve done an in-depth article on any Carson City gold coins and, as they are the most popular issues from this mint, I thought this would be a good time to write about the double eagles from Carson City. Before we get into date-by-date mode, let’s look at some big picture issues which concern collectors of these coins.

1. Popularity levels have clearly risen. CC double eagles have always been popular with collectors. But they have become an investor favorite as well. I am aware of at least three large marketing firms who are selling CC double eagles and not just mundane common dates in VF and EF. This has pushed interest up for all dates in virtually all grades.

2. Prices have risen.Without a statistical study, I can say intuitively that prices for most CC double eagles have risen between 10 and 50% in the last five years. I used to be able to buy quantities of nice EF coins for less than $2,000; today, these same coins cost me closer to $3,000. This seems to be even more so with higher grades coins. As an example, an MS61 1875-CC was a $7,500 coin around five years ago and not always an easy sale at that level. Today, I get $12,000 or more for one and they disappear as soon as I list them on my website.

3. Fewer coins seem available. My intuition tells me this is true based on what I am able to buy. At a typical big show five years ago I would return with anywhere from five to ten nice CC double eagles. I’d see them in dealer’s cases and I’d see them offered not only by the usual suspects but by smaller mom-n-pop dealers. This is clearly not the case in 2013 and I might come back from a show like Long Beach with no more than one or two CC double eagles in my newps.

4. CAC has had an impact. At first, CAC approved examples of CC double eagles didn’t seem to have a big impact on the market. This has changed and even common dates in EF sell for a premium. The coins with potentially big CAC impact are the rare dates which don’t typically come nice. As an example, I have seen virtually no AU50 examples of the 1870-CC which I thought were choice original coins. Currently, CAC has never approved an 1870-CC in grades above EF40 (and just two at that level). If an average quality 1870-CC in AU50 is worth, say, $325,000 what is one worth with CAC sticker? $350,000? $375,000? Maybe even $400,000?

Let's now take a quick look at each date and see what's happening on a coin-by-coin basis.

1870-CC:

Between 2005 and 2010, there were two or three examples of this date per year appearing at auction. This has slowed done considerably and in the last three years, only one non-no grade 1870-CC has sold at auction. This doesn’t mean this date has stopped selling; I know of a Nevada-based specialist dealer who owned multiple examples of the 1870-CC at one time and I believe he has sold them all via private treaty in the last year. This date cratered at around $200,000-225,000 for a typical quality EF coin a few years ago and prices have risen, slowly but surely. To own a decent 1870-CC today, you are going to have to write a check for at least $250,000 to $275,000. There are two above average examples in the Heritage 2014 FUN sale and it will be interesting to see what these bring.

1871-CC:

For most collectors, this date remains the single most expensive coin in their set, given that they won’t purchase an 1870-CC. I recently sold an NGC AU55 for well over $50,000 which is a record for me. Demand for the 1871-CC continues to increase and a choice PCGS EF45 could bring over $30,000 if available.

1872-CC:

The pattern of availability for this date has changed over the last few years. It used to be an issue that I handled regularly in EF45 and these sold well for me. Today, these same coins now grade AU50 or even AU53 and seem more available than before. Properly graded AU55 to AU58 1872-CC double eagles remain rare to very rare and other than the fantastic Battle Born coin, no Mint State pieces have been sold in some time.

1873-CC:

The finest known 1873-CC, variously graded MS62 and MS63, sold five different times between 2004 and 2008. Since then, not much in the way of exciting high grade 1873-CC double eagles have sold but Stacks Bowers 1/13: 13337, graded MS61 by NGC, brought a record-breaking $55,813 earlier this year. Prices for this date in all grades have risen as well.

1874-CC:

I was recently offered an NGC MS60 example of this date for $20,000 and, gulp!, I almost pulled the trigger. After years of being undervalued, the 1874-CC is a sleeper no more an even nice AU58’s are selling at close to the $10,000 mark. This brings us to a quick rhetorical question: is it is possible for there to be a sleeper in an extremely popular series such as Carson City Liberty Head double eagles? My take…yes there is but only a very few and only in the specific instance where the holder means nothing. In other words, population figures for AU58 1874-CC double eagles would suggest it isn’t rare. But real world experience shows that properly graded CAC-caliber examples are in fact very scarce if not actually rare.

1875-CC:

I mentioned in the beginning of this article how MS61 1875-CC double eagles have soared in price in the last few years. This is true with examples of this date in AU grades as well. I think nice 1875-CC double eagles will remain popular and in demand due to this issue being the only quasi-affordable Type Two issue from this mint.

1876-CC:

It’s been at least two years since I’ve handled an 1876-CC $20 in a grade higher than MS60 and this is surprising as nice MS61 and MS62 pieces used to be around. This, to me, is another good indication that CC double eagles are truly a collector-oriented series. The nice coins seem to be going off the market into long-term holdings unlike in the past when they would be held for a year or two and then flopped.

1877-CC:

The comments I made for the 1872-CC (see above) are pretty much the same for the 1877-CC. AU50s and AU53s seem a touch more available than in the past but that is primarily the result of gradeflation. The Battle Born: 11046 coin, graded MS62 by PCGS, is the only Uncirculated 1877-CC to come on the market for at least two years and I have handled just one Uncirculated piece myself (a PCGS MS61) in this time frame. Just as an FYI, if you can find a nice EF example for anywhere near $4,000, I think this is still a great value.

1878-CC:

This was a date that was always appreciated by collectors due to its small mintage but the lack of decent examples in the last few years is, to me, a tribute of the 1878-CC’s true scarcity. I like the value that this date offers in EF grades (still less than $10,000) assuming that you can a) actually find one and b) it isn’t dreadful.

1879-CC:

Ditto. Here’s another date which has seen almost no nice pieces sold since Battle Born: 11048. I have privately placed an AU58 and an MS60 and for both coins I had to pay what I believe were record prices.

1882-CC:

I’ve never been a huge fan of this date, so what I have to say might show an anti-1882CC bias. But I have noticed a pretty healthy supply of examples this year, including a few decent to choice Uncirculated pieces. I still think the 1882-CC is fairly valued in AU50 to AU55 grades (especially if the coin is CAC quality) but I’m going to officially go on record and state that Mint State 1882-CC double eagles are spendy. I still can’t get over the fact that the PCGS MS63 in Battle Born brought over $80,000.

1883-CC:

If I were assembling a CC double eagle set for friends or family, I’d look at a PQ AU58 with CAC approval at around $7,000 or a touch more. That seems like better value, to me, than a so-so MS60 or MS61 at $12,000-14,000.

1884-CC:

Along with the 1883-CC, this is one of my favorite CC dates for type purposes. It tends to come well made and if you can find an example with original color and surfaces, the visual appeal for this issue tends to be better than average. Uncirculated 1884-CC double eagles are no longer affordable for most collectors as a nice MS61 will cost you around $12,500 and if you can find an MS62 you are looking at $20,000 or more.

1885-CC:

When I first started making a market in CC double eagles, this date seemed to be more of a “key” than it does now. Not to cast aspersions on the 1885-CC and its friends and family but this date just doesn’t feel like a rarity anymore. Sure, it’s a better date in the series but it seems more plentiful than it was back in the day. One quick observation: this date used to be priced in tandem with the 1878-CC and 1879-CC in higher grades but it now lags both of these issues. The last nice coin to sell, ex Stacks Bowers 4/13: 1401 and graded PCGS MS61, at $35,278, actually seems like a good value to me within the context of this series.

1889-CC:

I just sold a nice PCGS AU58 example for over $8,000 to a savvy wholesaler and this was sort of a “gulp!” moment for me. I looked at my old records and saw that I was selling the same date in this grade for around $5,000 around three years ago. The gulp wasn’t so much that I thought these were now overvalued at $8,000; I leave that to the market to decide. The gulp was more that I wistfully thought “why didn’t I just put four or five of these away for a few years and sell into a market I knew was going to be strong.” Sigh…

1890-CC:

I’m now pretty certain that this is the most available date in the series in lower grades. I still see 1890-CC double eagles coming out of Europe and even some pretty decent EF45 to AU55 examples from these sources. This is one of the few CC double eagles that are still comparably affordable in AU58. I have sold a few nice examples in the last couple of months for around $6,000. Not cheap but not as pricey as some of the other common dates in this series.

1891-CC:

This date has proven itself to be scarcer than the 1885-CC and it seems far less available in the current strong CC double eagle market. No Uncirculated examples have sold at auction since the nice MS62 in Battle Born (it sold for a reasonable $48,875) and I don’t think I’ve handled more than two or three nice AU’s this year. Presentable AU’s at less than $20,000 seem like good value to me in the context of this market.

1892-CC:

Let’s say you bought a nice PCGS MS62 1892-CC in 2008. You probably paid around $16,000-18,000 for it. Fast forward to today. You send your coin to CAC and since it was nice for the grade, it is approved. If you go to sell the coin, the chances are good you’ll get around $25,000 for it and possibly more if someone like me thinks it has a chance to upgrade to MS63. Not a terrible return, especially given the fact that many non-CC Type Three double eagles have had spotty price performance during this five year period.

1893-CC:

The rumor about this date used to be that there was a bag of them and someone was quietly selling them two or three at a time. True? I doubt it but there were certainly a lot of similar looking Uncirculated 1893-CC double eagles on the market a few years back. There are still some nice coins around but they tend to have a bleached-out look as they have been processed to remove the deep peripheral color you used to find on this date.

Do you collect Carson City double eagles? If so, I would be pleased to help you assemble a great set. Feel free to contact Doug Winter by email at dwn@ont.com.

What Can CAC Population Figures Tell Collectors About Quality and Rarity?

Now that CAC has become an integral part of the rare date gold market, there are certain things that their database of coins that have been approved can tell collectors. This wasn’t necessarily true as recently as a year to a year and a half ago, but I believe that enough coins have been seen by CAC that their numbers have gained a degree of legitimacy. This is especially true for expensive and/or truly rare coins.

One thing that CAC data can tell a savvy collector is how rare a coin is with good eye appeal. In other words, if the combined PCGS/NGC population of a certain date/mintmark is 15 coins in EF, how many of these are choice and original?

How do these figures look in a series which is notorious for having numerous condition rarities? I decided to analyze the increasingly popular Liberty Head eagle series using CAC population data from their most recent report (September 2013) and compare it to research which I published a few years ago.

In 2008 I published an article entitled The Ten Rarest Ten Libs. I based this research on my 25+ years of specializing in this denomination, consulting auction records from the past two decades, and looking at current PCGS and NGC population data. My Top Ten list was concerned more with absolute rarity (i.e., the total number of coins known in all grades) versus condition rarity (the number of coins known in higher grades).

 According to my research, here are the ten rarest Liberty Head eagles:

1. 1875

2. 1864-S

3. 1873

4. 1863

5. 1865-S Normal Date

6. 1860-S

7. 1883-O

8. 1844

9. 1839, Head of 1840

10. (tie) 1858, 1859-S, 1864, 1866-S With Motto, 1876, 1877

Looking back on this list five years later (!), I basically still agree with it - except for one glaring omission: the 1855-S. I’m not sure why I didn’t include this date in my Top Ten; I very possibly might have forgotten it. Today, I would certainly include it and place it as high as #8 on the list. I would also eliminate the 1858 from the #10 grouping, and quite possibly the 1859-S and 1864 as well.

Before I delve into the CAC populations, there are a few caveats which I think are important to better understand this blog.

Firstly, we are assuming that at this point in time a good number of rare date gold coins get sent to CAC. However, I happen to know at least four major collections of Liberty Head eagles which have never been seen by CAC, and which contain many coins currently “unbeaned” by CAC which should be nice enough to qualify if and when they are sent in.

Secondly, we are making an assumption that “CAC quality” coins really are nice for the date and grade. I personally don’t think that is a stretch, but I clearly have seen some better date Liberty Head eagles with CAC stickers that weren’t all that nice and, conversely, have sent some coins to CAC which I thought were very nice and, for whatever reason(s), didn’t get blessed.

Thirdly, I think making assumptions about the rarity of coins like Liberty Head eagles based solely on CAC data would be a mistake. Instead, I would view the CAC data as a component of determining high grade rarity.

Let’s look at the Liberty Head eagles which, as of October 2013, have yet to see a single example approved by CAC:

• 1844

• 1863

• 1864

• 1865

• 1865-S Normal Date

• 1866

• 1866-S No Motto and 1866-S With Motto

• 1872

• 1873

• 1875

• 1876-S

There are no huge surprises here. This group of 12 coins is well represented on my Top Ten rarest list. The 1864 is a bit of surprise as I have handled a few nice pieces in the last few years and the same is true with the 1866-P and the 1866-S No Motto.

Now, how about the dates in this series with only 1 coin approved by CAC. Along with the dates, I’m going to list the grade of the sole CAC-approved coin.

• 1839 Head of 1840 (EF40)

• 1858-S (AU50)

• 1859-S (AU50)

• 1867-S (AU55)

• 1870-CC (EF45)

• 1877 (AU55)

This is an interesting group. All five are rare, and at least one (the 1839 Head of 1840) is on the Top Ten rarest list. The other four are dates which are a bit more available but which seldom come with nice surfaces and natural color; two elements which are rewarded by CAC. In this instance, the CAC results hold pretty true to form; more so than what I expect from NGC or PCGS results.

As a final list, let’s look at the dates in this series with just 2 coins approved by CAC. Again, along with the dates I’m going to list the grades in which CAC has approved these.

• 1855-S (EF45, AU55)

• 1859-O (EF45, AU53)

• 1860-S (VG8, AU55)

• 1862-S (EF45, AU55)

• 1864-S (VF30, EF45)

• 1870 (AU50, AU55)

• 1871 (AU55, AU58)

• 1876  (AU53, AU55)

• 1895-S (EF45, AU53)

To me, this is the most interesting list, for two reasons. The first is the dates (1859-O, 1862-S, 1864-S) which I didn’t expect to see two of, let alone one. The second is the presence of the 1895-S, a date which gets little respect from even the most ardent specialist and which only two reasonably low grade pieces have been approved by CAC to date. Sleeper alert!!

I’m going to revisit this topic in the near future, as I think it is a good way of determining the true rarity of certain coins in high-end “PQ” grades. By the same token, it also has relevance for lower grade coins like VF and EF when it comes to determining how nice a really rare coin is for its respective grade.

For more information on CAC and on Liberty Head eagles—with or without CAC approval—please feel free to contact me by email at dwn@ont.com.

What Killed the New Orleans Quarter Eagle Market?

If you had asked me a decade ago which series of New Orleans gold coin had the most upside potential I would have replied, “quarter eagles.” This was a series which has everything going for it. It is short-lived (a total of 14 issues were struck from 1839 through 1857), affordable (at the present time, nearly every issue can be found in nice AU grades for less than $3,000), interesting from a historic and numismatic perspective, and much easier to complete than the half eagle, eagle, and double eagle series from this mint.

A decade ago, interest was soaring in the New Orleans quarter eagle series and prices appeared to be rising as well. But something went terribly wrong and this series, in many cases, is worth less than it was ten years ago; at the same time when many other New Orleans gold coins have shown excellent price appreciation. What killed the New Orleans quarter eagle market?

To answer this question, I am going to look at some theories of mine. I am also going to randomly choose four different issues in four different grades and compare prices from a decade ago to today.

1. Grading Standards Were Not Upheld by Both Services

A decade ago, standards for New Orleans quarter eagles were fairly tight. As an example, if you were offered an AU55 1852-O quarter eagle in 2003, the chances were good that this was a decent to choice coin with some luster present. Today, many of the 1851-O quarter eagles that I see in AU55 holders are, in my opinion, not much better than EF45 in terms of sharpness and overall quality. While this inflating of grades has occurred in many dated gold series, for some reason it has always seemed more obvious in the New Orleans quarter eagle series. Coupled with the fact that certain New Orleans quarter eagles have strike and manufacturing problems, this gradeflating has made the series fairly unappealing to new collectors and purists alike.

2. Populations Are Hugely Inflated

I don’t have immediate access to population figures from 2003, but it seems to me that both NGC and PCGS have hugely inflated numbers for coins like the 1851-O in AU55 that I mentioned above. A quick look at this month’s online figures show that PCGS has graded 20 in this grade while NGC has graded 102. I can live with the PCGS figure, although I think the actual number of accurately graded coins in this grade is fewer than ten. But the NGC figure of 102? Not only is this grossly inflated, it gives the impression that an AU55 1851-0 quarter eagle is a relatively common coin. Interestingly, CAC has only approved three AU55 examples of this date. One would think that a coin with an NGC/PCGS population of 122 coins would have more than three approved by CAC…unless not many of these “122” coins are CAC quality.

3. Small Coins Lose Popularity

Clearly, small coins like gold dollars and quarter eagles have lost some popularity in the last decade as collectors get older and little coins grow harder and harder to see. Just as New Orleans double eagles have taken on an unprecedented degree of popularity in the last decade, small coins like New Orleans quarter eagles (and gold dollars) have ebbed in demand. Not that this is not true across the board: popularity levels for Dahlonega small-sized coins are at an all-time high, and Charlotte gold is becoming more popular after years of neglect. But in the New Orleans arena, it is clear that the focus is on big coins and small coins, at least for now, are the losers.

4. Quarter Eagles Never Had a Promotion

You can make a strong case that the New Orleans double eagle market got jump-started by a promotion a decade+ ago and has since become a fully functioning, collector-based market. The New Orleans eagle market has been promoted to the extent of the double eagle market but it has found a solid collector base. The same can be said, although to a lesser extent, for the half eagles from this mint. This just hasn’t been the case for the quarter eagles. No one has gone out and bought 50 or 100 nice AU to Mint State quarter eagles, written a compelling script and sold them on TV (don’t snicker; it could and probably should be done…) This lack of promotion, combined with a general market malaise towards quarter eagles has made this the softest single series of gold coins from this mint (with the exception of two dates which we will discuss later in this article).

Now that I’ve dispensed with my theories, let’s take a look at some specific dates/grades in this series and see how they have performed in the last decade. Be aware that the sample size I am using is very small, but the prices are based on average quality coins trading at public auction; all are coins which I have viewed in person.

 1840-O Quarter Eagle, AU55

The 1840-O has some degree of numismatic significance as it is the first Liberty Head issue from this mint. It is relatively scarce in AU55 and this is a popular grade as this date becomes very expensive in Uncirculated.

• NGC AU55: $2,070; Heritage 2/11: 4377

• PCGS AU55: $2,760; Heritage 1/10: 3818

• NGC AU55: $2,588; Heritage 3/04: 6093

• PCGS AU55: $2,875; Heritage 11/03: 7143

The price performance of this date in AU55 has been mediocre at best. An NGC coin is probably not an easy sale at just a touch over $2,000, and part of this has to do with the current population of 20 in this grade with a whopping 41 finer. A PCGS coin at $2,500 would probably be an easier coin to sell as the population in this grade is just eight (with 18 finer). It is interesting to note that CAC has approved just one in AU55, and my guess is that a choice, original piece with a CAC sticker might be worth as much as $2,750-3,000, regardless of whether it was graded by NGC or PCGS.

1843-O Small Date Quarter Eagle, MS62

The 1843-O Small Date is the most common New Orleans quarter eagle, and the second most available in Uncirculated. In MS62, it is fairly scarce and I have always felt it was undervalued. What makes this coin interesting, to me at least, is that it is the only affordable O mint quarter eagle from the 1840’s in MS62, and I’ve always felt that this should expand its desirability beyond specialists.

• NGC MS62: $2,585; Heritage 4/13: 5494

• PCGS MS62: $2,291 and $2,585; Heritage 6/13: 2585, and Heritage 10/12: 5546

• NGC MS62: $2,185; Heritage 1/03: 4667

• PCGS MS62: $2,530; Heritage 1/03: 8447

These auction prices are a bit misleading as they don’t show that for a few years between 2006 and 2009, a nice MS62 example of this variety was worth in the $3,000-3,250 range. Prices have stayed flat over the past decade and I don’t attribute this to gradeflation as the PCGS population has stayed at a reasonably low 14 coins in MS62, while NGC has graded 26. I’ve owned most of the PCGS MS62’s and the quality is usually pretty presentable; certainly nice enough to be appealing to a non-specialist who wants a cool, higher quality branch mint quarter eagle from the 1840’s for not a lot of money. I’m kind of at a loss as to why this isn’t a $3,500-4,000+ coin.

1852-O Quarter Eagle, EF45

To avoid being pegged as an elitist, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at prices for an inexpensive yet reasonably interesting coin like an 1852-O quarter eagle in EF45. This is one of the more common quarter eagles from this mint in a lower than normal grade, but at less than $1,000 it provides a good amount of bang for the buck.

• NGC EF45: $446; Heritage 3/12: 8726

• PCGS EF45: $403; Goldberg 2/12: 1202

• NGC EF45: $604; Heritage 7/04: 8026

• PCGS EF45: $633; Heritage 11/03: 7196

I’m not totally surprised by this price drop over the last decade. Even though gold has increased from a range of $363-409 in 2003-2004 to four times this amount today, many gold coins like an EF45 1852-O quarter eagle have performed poorly. It all boils down to supply and demand, and there are a lot more 1852-O quarter eagles in EF45 than there are collectors who wants one; even at the bargain price of $425.

1857-O Quarter Eagle, MS62

As our final example, let’s look at a coin that I think perfectly defines the term “condition rarity.” The 1857-O is the final year of issue for New Orleans quarter eagles. A total of 34,000 were struck and survivors are pretty common in circulated grades. But in Uncirculated, the 1857-O is very scarce with just two dozen or so known; mostly in the MS60 to MS61 range. I believe that there are around six to eight properly graded MS62 to MS63 coins accounted for; PCGS has graded 14(!) in MS62 with four finer while NGC has graded seven in MS62 with nine (!) finer. CAC has approved four coins in MS62, suggesting that the typical quality of at least some of these higher grade 1857-O quarter eagles is above-average.

• NGC MS62: $6,038; Heritage 10/11: 4702

• NGC MS62: $8,338; Heritage 2004 ANA: 7152

The population of this date in MS62 was much lower than its current 21 coins, which makes the 1857-O appear to be a somewhat available date in this grade. I would strongly disagree with this statement, however, as in my experience a properly graded MS62 1857-O quarter eagle is very rare and collectors are being misled by the combined NGC/PCGS figures.

I’ve stated throughout this article that the New Orleans quarter eagle market is “dead.” This isn’t wholly true as there are two issues, the 1839-O and the 1845-O, which have increased in popularity and, I would presume, price. Why is this?

The 1839-O is a first-year-of-issue and a one year type so it has multiple levels of demand. This is clearly why other Classic Head coins like the 1838-C half eagle and the 1838-D half eagle have soared in value in recent years.

The 1845-O is a key issue with a low mintage figure of 4,000. It used to be very undervalued but it has become popular in recent years and it now has demand outside of the specialist community; primarily among collectors who like coins that are “cool.”

Let’s quickly look at price levels on these dates for now and around seven-eight years ago.

1839-O Quarter Eagle, AU55

• NGC AU55: $5,581; Heritage 4/13: 5480

• PCGS AU55: $5,581; Heritage 9/12: 4775

• NGC AU55: $2,530; Heritage 5/05: 8427

• PCGS AU55: $4,370; Heritage 91/05: 8767

I think the price increase for this date in AU55 is actually even more dramatic as a CAC/PCGS AU55 would actually sell for $6,500-7,000 today, and a coin of this quality would have only been worth around $3,000-3,500 in 2004-2005. And the increases in price for this date are even more dramatic in AU58 and the lower Uncirculated grades.

1845-O Quarter Eagle, AU50

• NGC AU50: $6,325; Heritage 4/11: 6317

• NGC AU50: $4,025; Heritage 7/03: 10126

Again, this is a coin whose limited auction records for AU50 examples in the time period which we are exploring is misleading. The 1845-O has shown good price appreciation in grades from VF to AU58 and I believe it will continue to do so as a result of its multiple levels of demand.

And what’s the fate for the typical run-of-the-mill New Orleans quarter eagle? It’s probably not a rosy future. I don’t see collectors caring much about coins like 1851-O quarter eagles in AU55, or 1854-O quarter eagles in AU58. Unless there is a sudden influx of collectors wanting to do complete sets, the price appreciation for this series is likely to be limited to those coins with multiple levels of demand, Finest Known, or high Condition Census examples of not-so-interesting dates or specific individual coins with great eye appeal.

If you’d like to learn more about New Orleans quarter eagles or rare gold coins in general, please contact me at dwn@ont.com.

The RYK Retort: More on the 1892-CC Eagle

Editor’s note: The following reply was received by me this morning and it was written by well-known collector Robert Kanterman about the blog I published yesterday. It is unedited and, I think, an interesting insight into the mind of a sophisticated, well-focused collector. I was the lucky buyer, and I will address DW's points from the previous blog.

1. Underpriced? Perhaps a little bit, not too much — okay, I thought it was a screaming bargain! I would have been interested up to the $1200-1300 range. Maybe even $1500 if I really needed it for a date or type set.

As recently as a few months ago, the basal value of any old Liberty $10 was approaching $1000. Perhaps I am living in the past, but I still view $10 Libs as $1000 or so coins.

2. CC gold is extremely popular. More popular than ever. Just when I think that interest is starting to wane, it seems to gather more steam. Good luck trying to find me some CC $20's in OGHs.

3. I love OGHs, and I am not afraid to admit it. Graded years ago, under perhaps different standards, and untouched by human hands for 20+ years, what's not to love? Add to that the fact that many filthy gold coins from European hoards were slabbed in the OGH era (more below). I also believe that the green of the label and the gold of the coin complement one another in a way that even art enthusiasts like DW should appreciate.

A wise coin dealer friend told me earlier this year that the PCGS Reconsideration service marked the death knell of the OGH. I am not so sure. The OGH is dead. Long live the OGH!

4. DOGs (Dirty Original Gold coins) are The Bomb among serious collectors of 19th century circulated gold coin and other numismatic vagabonds. DWN has certainly educated collectors about originality, in his books, website, and in person, and made them popular, but RYK invented the "DOG" and used his big mouth (or noisy keyboard, anyway) to spread the gospel.

5. Liberty $10's are a great series, chock full of rarities and interesting dates. There are numerous logical ways to collect them that do not necessarily bust your coin budget (or require you to sell your home). There is also no question that David Hall's finest ever PCGS registry set and its well-publicized sale a few years back has raised the profile of these coins. Here's a confession — the first coin that I ever purchased from DWN was an 1849-O $10. The second coin was an 1883-CC $10. The last two were also Liberty $10's, both in OGHs. I really like Liberty $10's a lot.

And The Winner For Most Popular Coin Is....

I bought a ton of coins at the recent ANA. They ranged in price from under $1,000 to close to $100,000 and nearly all have been sold on my website in the two+ weeks since the end of the show. One coin garnered more attention than any other. It was ordered no less than eleven times (by different individuals) until I finally marked it "on hold." I would have never guessed, when I bought it, that this seemingly mundane coin would have become my Most Popular New Purchase for the 2013 ANA. And the winner for Mr. Popularity was (drumroll)......???

An 1892-CC eagle graded EF40 by PCGS (and approved by CAC) in an Old Green Label Holder.

Priced at a whopping $1,000, this coin connected with a wide range of people. It was ordered by two dealers and nine collectors running the gamut from beginners to seasoned vets.

What was it about this coin that made people go gaga?

I have a few theories. Let's explore them.

1. It Was Underpriced

As I mentioned in the description, by today's standards this coin grades more like AU50 to AU53 than EF40. This made it more likely to have a final value of $1,250 or so as opposed to the $1,000 it was listed for. At least eleven people spotted that this was a good deal, if not an actual bargain.

2. It Was An Affordable But Nice CC Gold Coin

If you don't have a huge budget but want to own a Carson City gold coin with a good overall appearance, you don't have a ton of choices. The typical CC double eagle now costs over $2,000 - and at the $1,000 price point any half eagle that's not dated 1891-CC tends to be kind of boring. I can't remember the last time I had an interesting CC eagle that was priced at $1,000.

3. The Lure of the OGH Is Strong...

Collectors love OGH PCGS coins and it isn't hard to understand why. The purist in me appreciates that a coin graded back in the late 1980's or early 1990's is going to look the same in another 20+ years as it does now. In other words, if PCGS had missed surface enhancement(s) on said 1892-CC eagle, the coin would have already turned in the holder. The fact that it was dark and dirty was a pretty sure sign that it was "as is" and wasn't going to turn.

4. Nice, Original Coins Are In Demand

This coin was dirty and original and coins with this sort of appearance are in demand. I'd like to think I had a little bit to do with this...

5. Liberty Head Eagles Are In Demand As Well.

As I've pointed out a number of times in the last few years, the Liberty Head eagle series has gone from mildly popular to very popular. This denomination will never be as popular as its big brother the double eagle but the number of people who dabble or specialize in this denomination has grown dramatically since 2008-2009. And an interesting Liberty Head eagle priced at a grand isn't easy to find.

I would have to guess that this perfect storm of desirability and appeal was what made this 1892-CC eagle so popular. To the collector whose email I received first and who is now the happy owner of Mr. Popularity...kudos. And to everyone else who tried and failed to buy the 1892-CC eagle...thanks and sorry. We will do another deal and soon, I hope!

The 1854-S Double Eagle: A Study

The 1854-S double eagle is one of the most interesting Liberty Head double eagles. It is widely acclaimed by collectors due to its status as the first double eagle from this mint, and the rarity of the quarter eagle and half eagle from this year makes it a famous coin as well. That said, it is an issue that is not well understood and one whose rarity profile has been made confusing by inconsistencies from NGC and PCGS.

The 1854-S has a high original mintage figure of 141,468 and one would expect it to be available in higher grades. This is not necessarily the case, despite what appears to be a decent number in Uncirculated as per the grading services’ current figures.

As of August 2013, NGC had graded a total of 48 in Uncirculated, including 23 in MS63 and another 10 in MS64. PCGS had graded a total of 55 in Uncirculated, including 17 in MS63 and another three in MS64. With a total of 103 graded in Uncirculated, we can conclude that the 1854-S is only a marginally scarce coin in higher grades and it seems more available in comparably high grades (i.e., MS63 and higher) than such contemporary non-shipwreck dates from this mint as the 1855-S, 1858-S and 1859-S.

However, this is not the case.

What the NGC and PCGS populations fail to address is the fact that virtually every Uncirculated 1854-S double eagle is a shipwreck coin. And what’s worse is that these are designated on the holder as being from a shipwreck - and both services seem wildly inconsistent with how this date is graded and why some blatantly “environmental damage” coins are in “normal” holders while others are not.

Essentially every high-grade 1854-S double eagle is from the S.S. Yankee Blade shipwreck which was found in 1977. This wreck contained approximately 200-300 coins. These were Uncirculated coins which must have been spectacular before the boat carrying them sank; the survivors tend to show very few marks but they have matte-like surfaces from exposure to seawater. Some examples have less etching in the surfaces than others; some are clearly salvaged and have oxidation as well as scratches from the process of removing crud from the surfaces.

What few collectors realize is that, as with the 1854-S eagle, the survival rate of high grade 1854-S double eagles with original surfaces is exceptionally low. I have seen exactly three with original surfaces which I grade Choice AU to Mint State by today’s standards. In comparison, I have probably owned 20 examples graded MS62 to MS64 but with “unoriginal” surfaces.

The choicest 1854-S double eagles I have seen with original surfaces include a PCGS 61 from the Bass collection (ex Bass III: 781 at $10,450; I later sold this coin to a collector on the East Coast), an NGC MS61 which I bought out of a Heritage sale around ten years ago (and can’t currently remember the exact pedigree), and a PCGS AU58 which I purchased from a New York dealer around four years ago and which was very choice for the grade. I believe that a few others are known but I can stately with reasonably strong conviction that none exist in grades higher than MS61.

There are certain diagnostics seen on the Yankee Blade coin which are not seen on the coins with original surfaces. Some of these are as follows:

1. The shipwreck coins always have an obverse die crack which runs up from a denticle at 6:00 on the obverse through the left side of the 5 in the date, terminating at the truncation.
2. The reverse has a total of three cracks. The first runs into the field (at the viewer’s left) from the base of the N in UNITED. The second crack begins between the denticles left of the first T in TWENTY up to the left tip of the letter. The third begins at the tip of the T in TWENTY and travels left into the field ending below the N in UNITED. On the late die state, these three cracks meet below the base of the right foot of the N in UNITED.
3. The shipwreck coins always show a broken crossbar in the A in STATES.

The original surface coins do not show these die cracks. They do have a similar mintmark, and all seem to have the broken crossbar. Interestingly, there are a number of small raised die dots on the obverse with two to the right of the 4 in the date, and three at the throat. There is also a small raised die dot on the neck.

I don’t believe that the original surface coins are from a different die pair than the seawater coins; just a different die state.

Breen lists four different die varieties for the 1854-S, but one of these is a Proof-only die (the unique coin in the Mint Collection) while another, described as having “extra thin numerals and letters,” is just a late state with lapped dies. He states that 8 pairs of dies were created and that the mintmark “usually…touches the tail; though on one it is free.” (He then states that on one it is “embedded.”). I have only seen one reverse and it always has a broken A in STATES and a mintmark which firmly touches the tail at its top.

There is, of course, another significant difference on the original surface coins and that is a different texture from a lack of exposure to seawater and sand.

Original surface 1854-S double eagles typically show a deep green-gold or orange-gold hue. The luster doesn’t tend to be as frosty as that seen on 1855-S or 1856-S double eagles. The overall look tends to be subdued with multiple abrasions from hard circulation.

There are two distinct looks for seawater 1854-S double eagles. The first is blatantly matte-like with heavy environmental damage; some of these are slabbed as “normal” coins by NGC and PCGS while others are “details only” or “genuine.” The more familiar look on the Yankee Blade coins is bright and slightly matte-like with rich yellow-gold color and a virtual absence of circulation marks on the surfaces.

The normal surface 1854-S double eagles should sell for a significant premium in all grades due to the scarcity. This date is seen from time to time in the EF40 to AU50 range, but it becomes very scarce in AU53 to AU55, and it is very rare in properly graded AU58. As I mentioned above, I have seen only three examples with original surfaces in Uncirculated and doubt if more than five or six exist.

For more information on Type One double eagles, I invite you to look through the blog and articles archive(s) on raregoldcoins.com or email me at dwn@ont.com with specific questions.

2013 ANA Show Report: 10 Observations

You know how I feel about show reports. They tend to be self-serving, inaccurate, biased as hell, and generally not very interesting. Which is why I stopped writing them a few years ago. But most readers of this blog want to know about my experiences at the ANA and my thoughts about the market so I’m going to do what I said I wouldn’t: I’m going to write about the 2013 ANA show but from a perspective that you might not have already heard before.

1. So how was the show?

The ANA summer show has been the Big Kahuna ever since I was a kid and although its impact has slightly waned over the years (for numerous reasons which I will discuss at another time) it’s such a significant show that if you are a dealer with even a reasonable amount of a clue on how to buy and sell coins, you are going to have decent results just on account of being there. On the Doug Winter Show Grading System (with 1 being a show cancelled by a nuclear accident and 10 being the show that a dude walks up to my table with a box of unopened 1873 Proof Sets) I would call the 2013 ANA a 7.5 to 8.0. I was very busy from the beginning to the end. I sold a ton and I bought some very cool numismatic items. More on this later in the blog.

2. Modern coins made huge inroads at the 2013 ANA show.

Chances are good that if you go to your local regional show, you will see moderns. But the ANA wasn’t a place I expected to see dealers like APMEX with the mack-daddy of all coin show tables. (If my hefty-sized table was Oklahoma, they were Texas…) The strong presence of modern and bullion-related dealers at this year’s show sends a clear message: more and more, the coin market is about alternatives to classic or vintage coins.

3. There seemed to be more foreign dealers at the show than usual.

I didn’t count the exact number of Brits, Brazilians, and Bolivians - but taking a stroll through the foreign/ancient section of the show was interesting and, for a coin show, downright cosmopolitan. For me, the ANA has an interesting social aspect. There are overseas dealers who I literally see once per year and my annual three minute "heyhowyadoin’" chat always occurs at the ANA.

4. The ANA remains an overwhelming logistics operation for a one or two-person operation.

I attended the pre-show (ANA Lite) and the regular ANA and committed to a full eight days and seven nights in the process. Even after deciding to blow-off the Stacks Bowers auctions due, frankly, to being overwhelmed, I still found it nearly impossible to accomplish even half of what I wanted to do at the show. I never made it to see the book dealers, missed the exhibits, and failed to talk to at least ten people I wanted to connect with. Being busy is a good thing (and on more than one day, I said to Jenna, “Hey, I’m hungry, let’s eat lunch!” only to look at my phone’s clock and see that it was already 1:47 in the afternoon) but being too busy can be kind of flustering.

5. What do you think about the location of the show, Doug?

I’m about as much of a city guy as anyone you know. I grew up in Manhattan, I vacation in big cities, and my house in Portland is in the heart of downtown. That said, I despise Rosemont and everything it represents. Would I ever spend a minute more in Rosemont than I had to? Of course not. But do I think it’s a good location for a convention? Yes, it’s actually a great location. Dead center of the country. Easy and cheap air access. Nice hotels within walking distance. A small but decent number of good dining options. (Although my Gibson’s overload factor went nearly off the charts this year. The seared crusted Ahi Tuna salad was a wonderful lunch but six days in a row?) If it were up to me, coin shows would be small, highly professional 100 dealer operations that lasted two days/nights at most, and were located in great cities like San Francisco, New York and Boston. But there aren’t so we make do with locations like Rosemont. For me it’s a true love/hate relationship, but when you realize analyze it, it makes sense.

6. Heartfelt congratulations to John Albanese for winning the Sol Kaplan award.

This is presented annually by PNG “for work in helping to fight fraud and thievery in numismatics.” John is one of the good guys in the coin business and he has done more for consumer protection and advocacy than nearly anyone I know. I’m happy to see him get some professional recognition from the PNG.

7. The coin show wasn’t all Rosemont/Gibson’s/Numismatics for me.

I took part of Saturday and most of Sunday off and stayed in downtown Chicago. The highlight of my trip was going to the Art Institute of Chicago. As you might know, I’m a bit of an Art Weenie and the AIC was on my shortlist of great American museums that I had yet to visit. It was worth the wait. It is spectacular and I highly recommend it. I mostly wanted to see this.

8. As you have no doubt read countless number of times in the past year(s), it is hard to buy nice coins now.

For a number of reasons, there are real issues with supply and this is across-the-board; whether you deal in Gem Proof gold or Conder Tokens, nice material is really in short supply. I actually was able to find some pretty neat coins at the show. (That surprised me.) I noticed a drop-off in coins around Wednesday afternoon and the reason for this was clear: PCGS was so slammed by submissions for walk-throughs that they shut off grading - and when I left the show on Friday, they still hadn’t returned coins. Had they done so, I would have had the appetite for more new purchases. And I’m sure so would have other dealers.

9.   In Observation #1 I mentioned that the ANA is the Big Kahuna of coin shows...

But for those of us old enough to remember back before, say, 2000, the ANA used to be a lot different. I can recall saving coins for three or four months to sell at the ANA. But that was before the internet made the coin market a 24/7 thing, and it was back when the only spring show of note was Central States, and the next show on the Coin Calendar was the Summer ANA. Back when people used to hold coins, you’d see some wild, wild stuff in dealers' cases. I remember how Dave Akers, Ed Milas, Paul Nugget, Mike Brownlee, and my other gold-coin-heroes would have crazy Territorials I had never seen before, insane early gold and groups of fresh branch mint coins (some of which I could actually buy for my fledgling business), and more. In 2013, the cupboard is pretty bare. Oh sure, I grooved on the Eric Newman silver coins. Legend’s 1894-S Dime was pretty neat, and the Proof 1921 Saint that a dealer friend of mine owns caught my attention. Ah, but for the Good ‘ol Days…

10. There were clear signs of what was hot and what wasn’t hot at the show.

The strongest areas included Carson City double eagles, Type One double eagles, virtually all interesting Liberty Head eagles, Dahlonega gold (I could have sold twenty half eagles had I found any for sale; where the heck are they?), and choice early gold with original color and surfaces.

To those of you who stopped by my table at the Throes in Rose(mont), thanks. And to everyone who has bought one or more of the new coins that I purchased at the show and listed on the website (www.raregoldcoins.com), double thanks.

A Collection of Transitional Gold Coins

I am often asked for ideas about what to collect, especially ones that are a little bit "out of the box." I recently had a conversation with a long-time collector about new directions for his set and we discussed the possibility of starting a transitional set of 19th century American gold coins.

By "transitional," I am referring to a coin that was struck as two different types during the same year. An example of this would be an 1854 gold dollar from Philadelphia which was produced as both as Type One and Type Two issue. Let's take a look at some of the transitional coins that are available to collectors who are considering this approach.

A pair of coins which is not a transition would be an 1861-S and 1861-S Paquet Reverse double eagle. This is the case because the 1861-S Paquet reverse was not used in any other year. An 1866-S No Motto reverse and an 1866-S With Motto are a transitional pair because the newer reverse was used in the following year(s).

1.  GOLD DOLLARS

The Liberty Head gold dollar was produced from 1849 through 1889.  There were a total of three types and there are a few interesting possibilities for the transitional collector.

In 1854, the Philadelphia, Dahlonega and San Francisco mint produced gold dollars with the Type One design. During the same year, a Type Two gold dollar was made at the Philadelphia mint as well. Both the 1854 Type One and Type Two gold dollars are common, although the latter becomes scarce and expensive in the higher Uncirculated grades. A transitional pairing of the 1854-P Type One and Type Two dollars could easily be assembled in MS63 to MS64 grades.

In 1856, there was a Type Two gold dollar made at the San Francisco mint and well as Type Three issue at Philadelphia and Dahlonega. These are not transitional issues, in the strictest sense of the word, as they were made during the same year but at different mints.

2.  QUARTER EAGLES

Production of this denomination began in 1796 and continued all the way until 1929. During this period, there were a number of transitional issues.

The first transitional pair of quarter eagles occurs in 1796 when both the No Stars and the With Stars issues were made. A total of 963 examples of the No Stars were struck and just 432 of the With Stars. While the more common of the two, the No Stars is better known and considered more desirable by many collectors. The 1796 With Stars is a very rare coin in all grades and is generally seen in lower grades than its No Stars counterpart. This transitional pair will be the most expensive part of such a set with nice AU-Uncirculated examples costing at least $250,000-300,000 and possibly more.

While the 1796 transitional set will be the most expensive quarter eagles in this set, the rarest coin will be the 1834 With Motto, which is the final year of issue for the Capped Head Left (reduced size) type struck from 1829 to 1834. There were 4,000 of these struck but nearly all were melted and today an estimated 20 or so exist. Later in the year, the better-known Classic Head design was introduced and the first-year-of-issue 1834 is common in grades up to MS63 and sometimes obtainable in MS64.  A transitional pair of 1834 quarter eagles could, in theory, be obtained for less than $100,000 but the earlier issue from this year might take years of waiting to locate.

No other transitional pairs exist for the quarter eagle denomination.

No transitional pairs exist for the three dollar gold piece.

3.  HALF EAGLES

The half eagle denomination began in 1795 and ended in 1929. It is fertile ground for the transitional collector with a number of interesting pairs extent, especially during the first few years of production.

The 1795 half eagle exists with both the Small Eagle reverse (employed on this denomination from 1795 through 1798) and the Heraldic Eagle reverse (used from 1795 until 1807). The 1795 Small Eagle is a reasonably common coin by the standards of early half eagles and it is, as one might expect, extremely popular. The 1795 Heraldic Eagle is considerably scarcer, especially in higher grades, although it is more obtainable. A nice transitional pair of 1795 half eagles will run  $100,000 or so but, in my opinion, it is one of the most visually arresting contrasts in all of American coinage.

Another transitional pair exists in 1797. Two different 1797 Small Eagle half eagles are known; the 15 star obverse and the 16 star obverse. Both are very rare although the former is more difficult to find and is not often offered for sale. There is a 1797/5 Heraldic Eagle known which is also very rare although it is at least obtainable; two other 1797 Heraldic eagle varieties (the 15 star and the 16 star non-overdate) which are unique and located in the Smithsonian. A transitional set of 1797 half eagles would be expensive ($200,000+) and hard to assemble but it would make an exceptional item and would be a highlight of this set.

In theory, a 1798 transitional set could be assembled as well but the Small Eagle is exceedingly rare with just eight known; the last example to sell at auction (a PCGS EF40) brought $264,500 back in 2000. The Heraldic Eagle variety from this year is reasonably common. It is possible that this set could be assembled but it would take deep pockets and considerable good fortune to even have a shot as obtaining a 1798 Small Eagle in today's rarity-conscious market.

The next transitional set in the half eagle denomination is the 1807 Bust Right and 1807 Bust Left. Both issues are reasonably common and a set could be put together, if so desired, in grades as high as MS64 to MS65. For $20,000-30,000, a more reasonably price alternative would include two nice AU coins.

A very interesting and very rare transitional pair occurs in 1829 with the Large Date (Large Diameter) and Small Date (Small Diameter). Both of these issues are very rare and generally trade once every few years. We're talking in excess of $1 million dollars for this pair and even having the money is no assurance that a set could be assembled.

A really interesting pair of transitional pairs exists for the 1834 half eagles. The Capped Head Left reduced diameter type began in 1829 and continued until 1834. During this year, both Plain 4 and Crosslet 4 varieties. Both are quite rare with the latter being harder to find. Later in the year, the new Classic Head variety was introduced and, again, both Plain 4 and Crosslet 4 coins are known with the latter being considerably rarer. It would be difficult but not impossible to put together this "pair of pairs" with the two Capped Head coins in AU-MS grades, the Plain 4 Classic Head in a grade as high as MS64 and the Crosslet 4 Classic Head in the lower MS grades.

The next group of transitional pair half eagles occur in 1842 and 1843. 1842 Philadelphia half eagles are known with Small Letters and Large Letters reverse varieties. The former is the type of 1839-1842 while the latter began in 1842 and continued all the way through 1866. Both are scarce and undervalued with the Large letters being the rarer of the two. A pair could be assembled in nice AU grades for $10,000-15,000.

The same transitional pair exists for 1842-C half eagles. The 1842-C Small Date is very rare in all grades while the Large Date is more available. An EF-AU pair would cost $20,000-25,000 to assemble.

With the 1842-D half eagles, the exact opposite rarity pattern is seen. The Small Date is the more obtainable (although it is very rare in Uncirculated) while the Large Date is rare and almost impossible to find above AU55. A nice AU pair could be assembled for $25,000-35,000.

This transition occurred for New Orleans half eagles in 1843-O. The Small Letters is slightly scarcer than the Large Letters but both are reasonably easy to find in EF and AU grades. A pair in AU could be purchased for less than $10,000.

The next transitional pair for half eagles occurs in 1866 when the San Francisco mint made 9,000 No Motto coins and34,920 With Motto coins. The former is extremely scarce while the latter is scarce but a bit more obtainable. The 1866-S No Motto is seldom found above AU50 while the With Motto is seldom found above AU53 to AU55. A pair of AU examples would cost around $20,000.

The final transitional pair for half eagles occurs in 1908 when both the Liberty Head and Indian Head types were struck. The 1908 Liberty Head was made only at the Philadelphia mint and it is common in grades up to MS64. The Indian Head type was made in 1908 at Philadelphia, Denver and San Francisco. It's possible to assemble a 1908-P half eagle set in MS65 for less than $20,000.

4.  EAGLES

The first transitional pair for the ten dollar eagle denomination occurs in 1797. The first coin struck this year was the Small eagle reverse of which only 3,615 were made. This is a rare coin in all grades and a very rare one in AU55 and above. Later this year, the large Eagle reverse was adapted and 10,940 were made. This issue is much easier to locate and it is sometimes seen in MS62 or even MS63 grades.  An AU set would cost at least 175,000-200,000 but it would be easier to assemble than the similarly dated half eagles (see above).

A less obvious but still important transitional pair occurs in 1839 with the Large Letters and Small Letters reverses. The former, which is the more common, employs the same size lettering as seen on the 1838. The latter, which is far rarer, uses the same size lettering as seen on the 1840 (and onwards). It is possible to assemble this set in AU for $25,000 or so but finding a nice 1839 Small Letters reverse will prove challenging.

In 1866, the San Francisco mint struck No Motto and With Motto eagles. The No Motto coins had a mintage of 8,500 and are very scarce in all grades. The With Motto coins are more available but only 11,500 were struck. Both issues are extremely hard to find above AU50. A nice EF-AU pair would cost $25,000-35,000.

A potential transitional gold coin collector will have much to keep him busy with 1907 and 1908 eagles. In 1907, three mints (Philadelphia, Denver and San Francisco) made Liberty Head eagles. Later that year, the new Indian Head design by Augustus St. Gaudens was introduced.

There are actually three distinct types of 1907 Indian Head eagle: the Wire Edge, the Rolled Edge and the No Motto. The latter is by far the most common although it is probably the least numismatically interesting. Most transitional collectors purchase a 1907-P Liberty Head in MS63 to MS65 grades and a 1907 No Motto in MS63 to MS64. Adding the Wire Edge is a nice touch but it should be noted that a nice Uncirculated example runs around $50,000. And, in the parameters we discussed earlier in this article, these are not a true transitional pair as the Wire Edge design was not fully adapted in 1908.

The final transitional pair for this denomination occurs, as a "pair of pairs", in 1908. Both the Philadelphia and Denver mints struck No Motto eagles followed by With Motto issues. None of these are rare in grades below MS65 and a nice MS64 set is an accomplishment which is readily attainable.

5.  DOUBLE EAGLES

The best known transitional Liberty Head double eagle pair is the 1866-S No Motto and With Motto issues. Only 12,000 or so of the former were produced and it is a rare issue whose price has soared in the last decade. The 1866-S With Motto is much more available although it can be challenging to locate in any Uncirculated grade. An About Uncirculated pair will run at least $50,000 and possibly more if the collector is fussy about quality for the No Motto.

In 1907, there was a radical change in the design of the double eagle and, as with the eagle from this year, there are pieces which use the old Liberty Head design (from Philadelphia, Denver and San Francisco) and the new St. Gaudens design. There are two important varieties of St. Gaudens double eagle from 1907: the High Relief which uses Roman numerals for the date and the Arabic numerals. These were all struck at the Philadelphia. An ideal transitional set, in my opinion, would include a 1907-P Liberty Head double eagle and a 1907 Arabic numerals. A slightly more advanced set could include a High Relief as well. The two coin set is easy to assemble in MS64 for around $5,000.

A second transitional set occurs in 1908 when the motto IN GOD WE TRUST was added to the reverse of the double eagle. The 1908-P and 1908-D issues exist with a No Motto reverse; the same two dates were made with the With Motto reverse, as well as a 1908-S.

Transitional collecting is not for everyone and, as you can see from reading this article, a complete set is extremely expensive due to the rarity of certain 18th century transitional issues. I really like the idea of assembling a mostly-complete transitional set and would be happy to discuss such a set in detail if you'd like to email me at dwn@ont.com.

12 Undervalued, Affordable 19th Century Liberty Head Gold Coins: Part I

It’s been a while since I’ve written a blog discussing specific undervalued, affordable gold coins. This is a topic which has proven popular in the past and, unless I’m mistaken, some of my suggested sleeper issues have grown dramatically in popularity—and price—in the last few years. Due to space limitations, I’m keeping this list down to a manageable number but it could easily be doubled—or even tripled—in size.

1. 1865 Gold Dollar

In the past, I have focused on various Civil War gold dollars, usually the 1863 which is the rarest of these issues. The 1863 has become well-known but the almost-as-rare 1865 remains an excellent value for the astute collector.

A total of 3,700 business strike examples were produced. This issue appears to have seen little circulation as it is almost never found in grades below MS60. As an example, PCGS has graded a total of 48 with 38 of these (over 79%) in Uncirculated grades. Interestingly, Uncirculated 1865 gold dollars are seen more often in Gem (MS65 and above) than in the lower grades (MS60 to MS62) and this suggests that a small hoard existed at one time.

The current Coin World Trends valuation for this date in AU55 is $900 and $1,100 in AU58. I’d contend that if you are able to find a PCGS or NGC AU55 or AU58 for anywhere near those kind of numbers, you have just stolen a coin and you can pat yourself on the back.

2. 1867 Gold Dollar

In 1867, the mintage of gold dollars “soared” to 5,200 business strikes. The 1867 is more available than the 1865 but not by much and it is less widely known or regarded.

The current population for this date at PCGS is just 64 coins in all grades with 46 of these (or 71.87%) grading MS60 and above. You can find the 1867 with more ease than the scarcer Civil War dates but what I like about this date is its current affordability. I have sold some nice higher end AU examples in the last year for around $1,000 and I have sold nice Uncirculated coins in the MS63 to MS64 range for $2,000-3,000.

This list is about “affordable” and, in my opinion, coins like the 1867 gold dollar check all the boxes: scarce in all grades, not terribly expensive even in higher grades, occasionally available and historically interesting.

3. 1844 Quarter Eagle

I’ve discussed this issue before so it’s not really a “secret date.” But the 1844 quarter eagle remains curiously undervalued. Of the 6,784 struck, there are under 100 known. PCGS has graded just 39 examples in all grades and this includes only three in Mint State.

So why is this date seemingly a permanently undervalued issue and why has it shown virtually no price appreciation in the past decade? I’d say the answer has a few components. Firstly, the 1844 quarter eagle doesn’t fit into any neat compartments. It doesn’t have a mintmark so it isn’t a branch mint coin. It doesn’t have any historical significance or anything else to give it a level of demand; let alone multiple levels of demand. What it does have going for it is its unquestionable value.

You can buy a very presentable AU 1844 quarter eagle for $2,000-3,000. The same coin with a C or D mintmark would easily be double the price. This fact, in and of itself, may be all the impetus this date needs to become better appreciated in the future.

4. 1846-D/D Quarter Eagle

I’m going to go out a limb here and add a variety to this list of undervalued 19th century gold coins. I know the reaction that some readers will have: “what, there aren’t enough overlooked regular issues? You have to get esoteric on us and add a variety? Seriously?”

The 1846-D/D quarter eagle is a well-established variety that has an important place within a very popular series. Although it is still not recognized by NGC or listed in the Redbook, it is well-known within the specialist community and recognized by PCGS. This has made it better-known than any of the other Dahlonega quarter eagles.

There are an estimated 40-50 pieces known with most in the EF40 to AU50 range. The 1846-D/D is not an inexpensive coin. You are looking at $4,000-6,000 for a nice AU, unless you are able to cherrypick an example. Put another way, the 1846-D/D is about as rare as the 1855-D quarter eagle from the standpoint of overall rarity but at a fraction of the price.

5. 1855-S Three Dollar Gold Piece

The 1855-S is an issue which should receive a lot more attention from non-specialists than it does. It is more of a Condition Rarity than nearly any issue in this group of undervalued issues and as many as 300-350 are known from the original mintage of 6,600 coins.

Here’s why I think the 1855-S is a good value and why it is underappreciated: like the 1854-D and 1854-O it is a first-year-of-issue within the three dollar series. But unlike these two issues, the 1855-S is not a “one and done” coin. In other words, the Dahlonega and New Orleans mints both made three dollar gold pieces for just a single year while the San Francisco mint made them again in 1856, 1857, 1860 and in (sort of…) 1870. Plus the two southern mint threes have the branch mint cachet which its Western counterpart lacks.

As I mentioned above, this is a very rare coin in higher grades. An accurately graded AU55 with good eye appeal is about as nice an example as you are going to find. Such a coin, if available would cost around $9,000-10,000. Back in the heyday of three dollar gold pieces (around 2005-2006) the same coin would have cost $13,000-15,000.

6. 1842 Large Letters Half Eagle

There are two varieties of half eagle dated 1842-P: the Small Letters and the Large Letters. Both are rare, both are undervalued and both probably deserve to be included in this list. But I’m going to go with the Large Letters which is rarer.

This is the fourth rarest Liberty Head double eagle from Philadelphia after the 1875, 1863 and 1865. There are around three dozen known including three in Uncirculated; the finest is a PCGS MS64.

Despite the unquestionable rarity of this issue, it is still very affordable. A nice quality EF 1842 Large Letters still can be found in the $2,000-2,500 range while an AU example would cost $4,000-5,000+. In my opinion, this is extremely good value in comparison to the branch mint issues of this era.

7. 1864 Half Eagle

It’s widely known that the Civil War half eagle from both Philadelphia and San Francisco are rare due to their low original mintages and their low survival rates. The 1864 is more available than the 1863 and 1865 but it is a scarce issue in its own right. There are an estimated 50-60 known from the original mintage of 4,170 business strikes. When seen, the typical 1864 half eagle is apt to grade in the EF40 to AU50 range.

I could have placed any one of at least ten other half eagles in this list of undervalued coins but I selected the 1864 due to its multiple levels of demand. Civil War gold coins have become very popular with collectors in the last few years and the 1864 half eagle is a relatively affordable issue in EF and even AU grades.

I sense the “affordable” aspect of this issue beginning to wane, though. As recently as a few years ago, it was possible to find a nice EF example for around $2,000-2,500 and an AU for a bit more than double this. Today, the collector will probably have to spend closer to $4,000-5,000 for a presentable 1864 but I still think this is reasonable for a coin with this degree of rarity and this much historic association.