1838 $2.50 PCGS AU55 CAC

Totally original and very choice for the grade with lovely deep amber-gold color on the obverse and reverse. Lightly worn and with dirt caked into the protected areas. Certainly not a really rare coin but not an issue that is often found with this degree of eye appeal. In fact, this is the only 1838 quarter eagle in AU55 that currently has CAC approval (eight examples graded higher also have a CAC sticker)

1853/2 $10.00 NGC AU55

The 1853/2 is one of only two legitimate overdates in the Liberty Head series along with the 1839/8 Head of 1838. It is not really as rare as once claimed in lower grades but it is scarce in properly graded AU55 to AU58 and extremely rare in full Mint State (I have only seen two and none better than MS61). When available in the middle AU grades, this issue tends to be processed and unattractive. The present example is one of the few 1853/2 eagles I have seen with nice color. The peripheries on both the obverse and reverse have acquired a fiery reddish-gold hue that nicely contrasts the natural lighter rose-gold centers. There is a good deal of luster present and the abrasions that are present are commensurate with the grade. A few small obverse rim marks at 9:00 to 10:00 do not detract.

1874-CC $20.00 PCGS EF40

Recently expatriated from Europe and graded by PCGS (somewhat conservatively I might add) in their Paris office. Nice and dirty with some underlying luster and attractive natural coloration. The surfaces are very clean for the issue. I think this coin compares favorably with the PCGS EF45 CAC example of this date which I just sold.

ANA Show Predictions: 2011

If you had asked me just last week how this year's ANA show was going to turn out, I'd have told you it was going to be an unqualified success. But with the recent topsy-turvy (to say the least...) state of the stock market and economic fears in general, I'm afraid I may have to temper my earlier views. Somewhat. I still think this year's ANA is going to be successful. No, I don't especially like the location (being so close yet so far to downtown Chicago is sort of heartbreaking for me) but it makes sense and I like the fact that O'Hare airport (and the show) is within a three hour plane ride from just about any location in the country. Unless I'm mistaken, I think the attendance at this show will be excellent.

I've read in other blogs/newsletters about the show that Chicago is a "great coin town." While I can't argue with the long and glorious numismatic history of The Windy City (Hello Virgil Brand!), I've never had a great coin show in all of the major conventions that I've attended in Chicago. Frankly, I wish all ANA shows were in New York City as the two best ANA's that I've ever had, by a huge margin, were the last two held in The Big Apple. But I digress...

Back to the predictions.

Based on my sales so far this summer, which have been better than I would have expected, I think the coin market is reasonably healthy. But it is more two-tiered right now than at any time I can recall and it is clearly biased towards gold coins.

Which is good if you are a rare gold coin specialist.

There are some very odd dichotomies in the economy and the coin market right now. The first has to do with the spending habits of the very wealthy versus everyone else.

I read an article the other day in the New York Times that discussed spending on luxury brands like Gucci and Louis Vuitton versus spending at Wal-Mart and Costco. The luxury retailers have had amazing years so far and are raising prices. $1,250 shoes are flying out the door and there are waiting lists for trendy $8,000 coats. But at Wal-Mart, prices are being cut and already-stretched paychecks are having trouble buying essentials by the end of the month.

We are seeing a sort of microcosm of this in the coin market. Super high-end coins are very strong right now and I think you'll see some amazing prices in the pre-ANA and ANA sales for great coins. Expensive coins that are off-quality or not especially interesting have been weak sellers for the last few years and I expect this segment of the market to get hit hard at Chicago and beyond.

But the collector market remains very strong and, based on my personal experience, should continue as such for a while.

I'm not noticing the sense of fear that pervaded the economy in 2008. In September 2008, it was nearly impossible to sell any coin, no matter how great it was. This time around, I get the sense that in September 2011, collectors WILL be receptive to making purchases. But I think these purchases will be even more selective than in the past.

The run-up in gold prices isn't really fueling interest in the rare coin market the way I'd expect it to but I anticipate that this will change in the near-future. If even 1% of the new gold buyers become interested in rare gold coins, this surge of demand could have a real impact.

Will we feel this in Chicago? Probably not. I can't imagine that there will be packs of gold bugs roaming the aisles looking for Proof Liberty Head eagles. But I would be pretty surprised if there weren't a number of potentially serious newbies who've made the decision to go to ANA.

A few weeks ago I would have predicted that on the DWN-o-meter, this year's ANA would have been at least an A- show and it had the potential to be an A. Now, I'm thinking it will be a solid--if unspectacular--B show with the potential to maybe attain a B+ if the stars align properly.

Unlike other ANA shows in the recent past, I think there will be a decent supply of nice coins available for collectors and dealers to buy. The auctions are full of interesting, fresh material and I have the suspicion that some cool, fresh coins will appear on the floor as well. And I have the hunch that, in spite of economic fears, these good coins are going to bring very strong prices.

1842 $10.00 PCGS AU53 CAC

Large Date variety. Both the Large Date and Small Date eagles of this year tend to be overlooked (as are most eagles from Philadelphia struck in the 1840's) but they are scarce in About Uncirculated and exceedingly rare in Uncirculated. This piece, which is fresh from Europe and which was graded by PCGS in their Paris office, is wonderfully original with rich yellow and green-gold hues atop very lustrous surfaces. The detail is suggestive of an AU55 grade and there are just a few minor scuffs visible in the fields. The last PCGS AU53 of this variety to sell at auction was Heritage 2011 FUN: 7014 that brought $1,955; no others have sold since July 2009. This is the only CAC approved 1842 Large Date in AU53 and none have been stickered in grades higher than this.

How Will $2000 Gold Impact Rare Gold Coin Prices?

A few years ago I had a hard time believing that gold would ever cross the $1000 threshold. Today, it exceeded $1700 per ounce before retreating, and it seems inevitable that it will break the $2000 mark sometime this year. What impact will this record-shattering price have on the rare gold coin market? I see the impact of high-priced gold in a number of ways. With gold increasing so rapidly, it has gained a tremendous amount of publicity around the world. I feel this locally as well. My neighbors--at least the ones who know what I do for a living--are frequently asking me about gold prices and just today a teller at the bank had a long list of gold-related questions as I made my deposits.

People are buying gold coins and it is inevitable that a small percentage of them will eventually wind up in the rare gold coin market. I'd say that for every 1000 people who buy an American Eagle or a gold Buffalo today, maybe one or two of them will transform into buyers of coins like Type One Liberty Head double eagles or Saints.

For many rare gold coins, gold could rise to well over $2000 per ounce and the intrinsic value of the coin itself will not really be affected. An 1860-D gold dollar in EF45 or a 1907 Wire Edge eagle is a collector-based coin whose value is impacted by demand; not the rise in gold prices. So, I think it's important to remember that skyrocketing gold's greatest impact is on potential demand; not by increasing existing value(s) based on intrinsic worth.

One subtle but dramatic impact on rare gold is dealer profits. Let me explain: when a large wholesale firm makes tons of money in the bullion market (as they should be now) it is likely that they will reinvest a percentage of their profits in the rare gold market. A coin that a firm might not have bought when they were not making profits from rising gold could enter their inventory when they are making lots of gold profits. And the same goes with dozens of other dealers; big and small.

One huge impact on the rare gold coin market is in entry level pricing. When gold was under $1,000 an ounce, coins like Liberty Head double eagles in EF and AU were relatively small purchases; items that collectors didn't think twice about at $1,250 a pop. But now with gold at close to $2,000 even a common date Type One double eagle will have an entry level price at $2,250-2,500. Suddenly this is a lot of money and it might not be considered an impulse purchase anymore for the middle-class collector.

I think this is an important point to consider. I read an interesting article the other day in the Los Angeles Times where downtown LA jewelers were complaining that the high price of gold was hurting their business. The typical jewellery store client was now a seller instead of a buyer and the low end/middle end lines of merchandise that they carried were not selling due to the high price of gold. Could this carry over to coins?

I am not seeing a huge increase in demand on my website regarding gold coins right now. I'm assuming that's because I have the reputation as a dealer in rare gold coins and not in gold bullion or semi-numismatics. I'd be interested to know if the bullion-based gold traders have their phones ringing off the hook today. I'm assuming that they are very, very busy.

I will also be interested to see the impact of $1700+ gold on the ANA convention which begins in just a few days. I'm going to assume that there will be a lot of people at the show looking to buy gold coins. But will they be looking for American eagles or rare date Liberty Head eagles?

There are tons of interesting rare and high quality U.S. gold coins in the two auctions before and during the show. How will $1700+ gold impact them? This will be very interesting to monitor as well.

1874 $5.00 PCGS MS62

The Reconstruction Era half eagles from the Philadelphia mint are, with the exception of the 1873, very rare. The 1874 is no exception and this unheralded issue has an original mintage of only 3,488 business strikes. I believe that around 60-80 examples are known with most in the VF-EF range. There are at least three examples in Uncirculated of which this piece could well be the second best. It has a superb natural appearance with delicate rose-gold hues and lovely semi-prooflike luster. A few very light ticks in the obverse fields narrowly keep this piece from a 63 grade but the visual appeal suggests a higher grade and it represents amazing quality for the date and grade. The only finer example I have ever seen is Bass II: 1194 that brought a strong $20,125 back in 1999; that coin was resold as Heritage 11/06: 2229 where it went reasonably at $20,700. Coins like this are almost never offered for sale anymore via private treaty and this is an important potential addition to a world-class set of Liberty Head half eagles.

C Bechtler $1.00 N Reversed PCGS AU50 CAC

Kagin-4, Rarity 3. This variety is immediately recognizable by the reversed N in ONE. Recently purchased from an old estate and off the market for over two decades, this piece has superb deep original green-gold with reddish hues at the periphery. It is a full 55 from the standpoint of sharpness and detail but it has been net-graded to AU50 by PCGS on account of a small mint-made planchet defect on the reverse below AR in CAROLINA and an ancient pinscratch from the right edge of the first L in DOLLAR to the N in the denomination. A lovely example of this quaint design and the first PCGS AU50 to be offered for sale since Goldberg 9/08: 1726 which brought $4,255. If you collect Charlotte gold dollars and/or other Federal coins of this denomination, you should include a Bechtler issue or two in your set.

1812 $5.00 NGC MS64

BD-1. R-3. Wide 5D variety. Struck from unclashed dies. This is a fresh and really lovely example of a Capped Bust Left half eagle. It has totally original color with rich green-gold shadings that deepen at the borders. The strike is as sharp as one could hope for with just a small amount of weakness at the centers; the borders show full denticles and radial lines on the stars. The obverse is virtually of Gem quality save for a few minor scuffs in the fields; the reverse shows a few minor vertical adjustment marks at the center that blend in with the detail. What appears to be "damage" on the reverse is actually a mint-made defect through the horizontal lines in the shield that is found on all examples of this variety. While readily available in the lower Uncirculated grades, the 1812 becomes scarce in MS63 and it is rare in MS64. A Gem, if available, would cost in excess of $100,000. For most collectors, this borderline Gem example would be a perfect representative of this design.