Hunting For Value In Today's Rare Coin Market

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As we roll towards the mid-way point of the numismatic year, this is a good time to step back for a second and reflect on value. The Numismatic Prognostications of late 2008/early 2009 have not proven as dire as first thought (at least not yet...) but there has still been quite a bit of shake-out in the coin market. For the collector who is a stickler for good value, does this represent a good time to jump into the market and pursue some of the bellwether items that are standards in any collection? Let’s take a look at a few of these and see if they are good values at current levels or if the collector should ride the market out and take a “wait and see” approach.

The first coin I’d like to look at is a 1795 half eagle graded AU55. The 1795 half eagle is a very popular issue due to its status as one of the two first gold coins struck by the United States mint. It is scarce but not unobtainable and it is priced at a level that many collectors can (still) afford. The current value of an average quality 1795 half eagle in AU55 is around $40,000. Last year, examples consistently traded in the $45,000-50,000 and at the peak of the market in 2007 they hit the $50,000-55,000 mark.

Now, let’s look back a few years. What were 1795 half eagles in AU55 worth five or six years ago? As I recall, it was possible to buy a nice, solidly graded example for around $25,000-30,000. My gut feeling tells me that it’s not likely that we’ll see these levels again for this coin but that a dip down to around $35,000 might be possible this year, especially for examples that are low-end and unoriginal.

In my opinion, at current levels (give or take 5-10% on the downside or upside), the 1795 half eagle is a pretty good value in AU55. But I’d be very picky right now. The last three or four examples that I have seen in AU55 holders have been fairly unattractive. A choice, lustrous piece with good eye appeal and nice color is hard to find at the new levels and I think it’s a solid value.

How about the Big Brother of the 1795 half eagle: the eagle from this year? I personally love 1795 eagles. It’s a beautifully designed coin, it’s historic, it’s scarce but not to the point of being esoteric (as are some of the rare date early eagles of this design) and it’s an issue that has been in demand since the early days of coin collecting.

Prices levels for this issue in AU55 have held up a little better than they have for the similarly dated half eagles. I haven’t handled an AU55 in a few months but I’m guessing that they are worth around $50,000-55,000 right now. Last year, examples traded in the $55,000-60,000 range and at the peak of the market in 2007, I traded at least three of them in the $65,000-70,000 range.

Looking back a few years, 1795 eagles in AU55 were trading for around $35,000-40,000. If I had to guess what the current “basal value” for this issue is, I’d say around $45,000. At this level, I have to think there are a lot of dealers who would jump in, even for coins that weren’t especially high end.

In my opinion, a nice, choice 1795 eagle at around $50,000 is very good value. Again, I’d be picky if I were buying one. I’d spend a few extra thousand dollars and wait for an example that was as original as possible.

What about High Reliefs? As you might know, I’m not a huge fan of High Relief double eagles from the standpoint of value. But I do love the design and if I were a collector I can’t imagine not owning a nice MS64 example at least once during my collecting career.

If you shop around, I think you should be able to buy a decent non-CAC quality MS64 for around $26,000-28,000. These were worth around $32,000-34,000 a year ago and at the peak of the market in 2007 I can recall seeing examples trade in the $36,000-38,000 range. Around five or six years ago, as the Great Bull Market in coins was beginning, MS64 High Reliefs were available in the $22,000-24,000 range.

These numbers are sort of surprising to me. Given the near-ubiquity of this coin in this grade (PCGS alone has graded over 1,200 in MS64) I would have personally expected it to have dropped more than it has so far. Many collectors are not aware of the fact that some of the dealers who were the biggest two-way market-makers in High Reliefs have cut back their buying due to cash-flow constraints. Given these factors, I’m impressed that MS64 High Reliefs have only dropped 15-20% since last year. My gut feeling is that they could drop another 10-20% but I don’t see them getting much cheaper than the low 20’s in MS64. At this level, I would have to think that they are a “safe” purchase.

Let’s look at one last item. How about something that straddles the line between “generic” and “rare coin?” I’m thinking Three Dollar Gold and, more specifically, I’m thinking an 1878 $3.00 in MS64.

If you follow the generic market, you probably are aware that Three Dollar Gold is not in demand right now. I would term this series as “cold” and it might even be approaching “glacial.” With a little price shopping and comparing various dealers’ inventories, you should be able to buy an MS64 in the $6,500-7,500 range. These were worth $8,500-9,500 a year ago. The peak of the market for common date MS64 Three Dollar gold was in late 2005/early 2006 when these were being promoted and they got as high as $12,000-14,000 in MS64. Going back to the beginning of the bull market, MS64 Threes were selling for $5,500-6,000.

I’d like to tell you that I thought MS64 Threes were a great value right now because I do think that they are cheap. But the problem with this series is ample supply and almost no current demand. Unless someone starts promoting Threes again, I could see MS64’s drop down to the $5,000-$5,500 range. So unless you really need one for a type set, I’d suggest waiting a while and letting them get cheaper.

Gem Charlotte Half Eagles: The Elite Eight

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In my last blog, I wrote about a Gem 1855-C half eagle that I was fortunate to recently handle. A number of readers asked me about some of the other Gem half eagles from this mint and I thought it would be interesting to take a look at each of these. There are a total of eight Charlotte half eagles that have been graded MS65 or better by either PCGS or NGC (or by both services in some cases). Many are very famous coins within the Charlotte gold collecting community. A few are not quite as famous and are not given the full "props" that the others have received in the past. Let's take a quick peek at each of the eight Gem Charlotte half eagles.

1842-C Large Date Graded MS65 by NGC, ex Milas/Eliasberg. This coin has a pedigree dating back to 1920 when John Clapp Jr. purchased it from Elmer Sears. It was later in the Eliasberg collection and it brought $17,600 (a comparably high price) when it was sold at auction in 1982. The coin was later owned by Chicago dealer Ed Milas and was offered in the Stack's May 1995 sale of his superb collection of No Motto half eagles. It is now owned by a North Carolina collector and it has been off the market for close to a decade.

1846-C Graded NS65 by NGC, ex Elrod/Eliasberg. This is one of my all-time favorite Charlotte half eagles. It was purchased by John Clapp Sr. out of the David Wilson sale conducted by S.H. Chapman in March 1907. It was later owned by Louis Eliasberg and it brought a reasonable $13,200 in October 1982. The famous specialist Stanley Elrod then owned the coin and I bought it in the late 1980's/early 1990's when the Elrod collection was being dispersed. I then sold the coin to Paul Dingler and bought it back in 2005. It is now owned by a West Coast collector. Funny story: when I was selling this coin to Paul Dingler, I had a hard time convincing him that this coin was as great as I believed. It turned out that Paul was color-blind and the dark, crusty color that this coin exhibited (at the time) was hard for him to appreciate. He did take my word for it and this 1846-C half eagle became a centerpiece of his fantastic collection.

1847-C Graded MS65 by PCGS, ex: Pittman/Farouk. As far as I know, this is one of only two of the Elite Eight that is currently in a PCGS holder. It has a wonderful pedigree that goes back to the Col. Green collection and it was later in the King Farouk and John Pittman sales. I first saw the coin in the Akers 10/97 Pittman Part One auction where it brought $44,000. It was last sold as Heritage 4/02: 6986 where it brought $47,150. I do not know the current location of this impressive Gem.

1849-C Graded MS66 by NGC. This coin was discovered by Avena Numismatics back around 1997 and was first offered for sale as Bowers and Merena 8/98: 330 where it did not meet its reserve. It finally found a home after appearing in the Bowers and Merena 3/04 auction realizing $70,150. It is clearly the finest known 1849-C half eagle. I am not aware of the current location of this coin.

1852-C Graded MS65 by NGC, ex: Silvertowne Hoard. In 1984 or 1985, a group of five remarkable 1852-C half eagles from a family in Southern Indiana was sold to Silvertowne Numismatics. One of the five (I'm not certain which) was later graded MS65 by NGC after having been graded MS64 by PCGS. Interestingly, the second part of this hoard came on the market in December 2007 when a Florida firm offered them for sale. The 1852-C half eagles from this hoard are notable for their superb original color, great luster and high overall level of eye appeal.

1855-C Graded MS65 by NGC, ex: Elrod. Having just written extensively about this coin, I'd prefer not to be reptetitive and suggest you read my blog dated April 8, 2009 for more information.

1857-C Graded MS65 by NGC, ex Elrod. This coin is from the famous Elrod collection and it was first sold at auction in February 1999 as part of the Heritage William Miller auction where it failed to meet its reserve. It reappeared as Heritage 1/03: 4797, in an NGC MS64 holder, where it sold for $33,350. I saw this coin within the last year in a dealer's inventory.

1859-C Graded MS66 by PCGS, ex Milas/Eliasberg. While not widely-known outside of the specialist community, this incredible coin gets my vote for the single finest Charlotte half eagle in existence. It was purchased by John Clapp, Sr. in 1910 from Elmer Sears and was later in the Eliasberg collection. It sold for just $8,800 in October 1982 and this cheap price can be attributed to the relative unsophistication of the branch mint market at that time. After appearing in a number of auctions in the mid-1980's it wound-up in Ed Milas' set of Gem No Motto half eagles where it sold for $104,500. I haven't seen this coin for many years but I remember it being superb and hope that it has retained its superb original color and luster.

It is remarkable to think that only eight Gem Charlotte half eagles exist, considering that close to 900,000 pieces were struck between 1838 and 1861. The collectors who own any of the Elite Eight have coins that, in my opinion, are truly worthy of the overused designation "world-class."

The Elrod 1855-C Half Eagle, Graded MS65 by NGC

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In my February 25, 2009 blog I wrote about (and showed pictures of) the fabulous Bass 1855-C quarter eagle in NGC MS65. I recently handled the Big Brother of this coin, the Elrod 1855-C half eagle also graded MS65 by NGC and I thought I’d share some information and images of this amazing coin. First, a little background. The Elrod 1855-C half eagle has been off the market for close to a decade and has been in the collection of a North Carolina businessman. I can trace the pedigree of this coin back to at least the mid-1970’s when it was obtained by the pioneering collector Stanley Elrod of Matthews, N.C. After trading hands a few times, it was obtained by William Miller, a collector from Michigan. It remained in the Miller collection until it was sold as Lot 6284 in the Heritage February 1999 auction. At this sale, it realized $67,725 which remains a record for the date. The new owner of this coin is an anonymous specialist who is working on one of the finest collections of Charlotte gold ever assembled.

1855-C $5.00 NGC MS65 Elrod

The 1855-C half eagle is the twelfth rarest of twenty-four half eagles struck at the Charlotte mint and it is the eleventh rarest in high grades. I estimate that between 175 and 225 are known with just four or five in Uncirculated. The Elrod coin is, of course, the finest. The other two notable 1855-C half eagles are the Bass/Garrett coin (graded MS63 by PCGS) and the Milas coin (graded MS64 by NGC). Only one die variety is known but there are three die states. The first has a perfect reverse. The second has a light crack joining the base of the letters in FIVE and D. The third, which is rare and distinctive, has a full cud below these letters. The Elrod coin is Die State I.

What makes this coin an unabashed Gem? I personally believe that the two best things about the Elrod 1855-C half eagle is its coloration and its fresh, almost glowing appearance. The coin has amazing rich, frosty luster that is accentuated by sensational medium to deep orange-gold and maize color. The surfaces are almost entirely free of marks with the exception of some mint-made roughness in the planchet which is as struck.

How rare are Charlotte half eagles in Gem Uncirculated? I am aware of eight distinct half eagles from this mint that are regarded within the specialist community as Gems. They are as follows:

1. 1842-C Large Date graded MS65 by NGC

2. 1846-C graded MS65 by NGC (ex: Eliasberg)

3. 1847-C graded MS65 by PCGS (ex: Pittman)

4. 1849-C graded MS66 by NGC

5. 1852-C graded MS65 by NGC

6. 1855-C graded MS65 by NGC (ex: Elrod)

7. 1857-C graded MS65 by NGC (ex: Elrod)

8. 1859-C graded MS66 by PCGS (ex: Milas)

If I had to choose one of the coins above as the single finest known Charlotte half eagle, it would be the Milas 1859-C. But that’s another story that we’ll cover in a future blog. As far as I know the sale of the Elrod 1855-C is the first Gem Charlotte half eagle to occur in a number of years. The other Gem half eagles from this mint are off the market in tightly-held collections and may not be available for quite some time in the future.

Douglas Winter Numismatics (DWN) specializes in choice and rare branch mint gold and handles many finest known and Condition Census pieces from these mints. For more information regarding the Elrod 1855-C half eagle or any other gold coins from the branch mints, please contact Doug Winter at dwn@ont.com.

Philadelphia Type One Double Eagles

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Since the publication of my book “The Insider’s Guide to Collecting Type 1 Double Eagles” in 2002, this has been one of the strongest and most avidly collected areas in the entire U.S. coin market. I think this is the case for three reasons:


1. Size: New collectors can relate to big, attractive coins and Type One double eagles are exactly the sort of coins that are easy for dealers to sell (and for collectors to buy).

2. Shipwrecks: The discovery of the S.S. Central America and S.S. Republic shipwrecks added a tremendous shot in the arm to this market. Many collectors were first attracted to Type One double eagles by the shipwreck coins but found the series interesting enough that they decided to collect more extensively.

3. Story: There is an incredible amount of history inherent in the Type One series. The 1850-1865 era is pivotal in the story of the United States and this has also attracted many collectors to the Type One series.

I am personally very attracted to the Philadelphia Type One issues. These issues do not get the publicity that the branch mint coins do and, as a result, they remain undervalued. Here is a date-by-date analysis for beginning collectors that, hopefully, will be useful.

1850: This issue is in heavy demand due to its status as a first-year-of-issue. I used to think it was undervalued but now I think it is fully priced, especially in the AU55 to MS62 range. There are as many as 3,000+ known with 50-100 in Uncirculated. There are actually two Gems graded MS65 and another half dozen or so that I grade MS63 to MS64. The current record price was set by Heritage 1/07: 3698, graded MS65 by NGC, which brought a healthy $161,000. Collectors should be patient when looking for an 1850 as there are some very pleasing pieces available.

1851: Over two million were struck but this date is a bit more difficult to locate than most people realize, especially in higher grades. There are an estimated 100-150 known in Uncirculated. I have never seen or heard of a Gem but have known of two or three that grade MS64. Most 1851 double eagles are grainy in appearance with very “choppy” surfaces. However, there are a number of frosty, lightly abraded coins known and the collector would do well to wait for such a piece to appear.

1852: The 1852 is similar in rarity to the 1851 except that it is a bit more available in Uncirculated. Nearly every known example is very heavily abraded and many have inferior grainy luster. Some lightly abraded, frosty pieces are known and I feel that these are desirable and worth a premium. There is a single example in MS65 (graded by NGC) but I have never seen an 1852 that I regarded as a Gem. I have, however, seen at least four or five very nice MS64’s. This date is an excellent choice for novice collectors as it tends to be well-made and affordable.

1853: The 1853 is similar in rarity to the 1851 and 1852 even though it has a lower mintage. I estimate that there are 1750-2250 known but most are in circulated grades and the 1853 is much scarcer in Uncirculated than the 1851 and 1852. I think there are around 30-40 known in Uncirculated and most are in the MS60 to MS62 range. The best I have seen is the NGC MS64 (which I now believe is in an MS65 holder) that was sold in the Superior 5/05 auction for $66,700.

There is also an 1853/2 overdate that is controversial but accepted as such by both PCGS and NGC. It is clearly identifiable by a small raised die dot below the R in LIBERTY. This variety is generally seen in EF and AU grades and from the standpoint of availability it is the rarest Philadelphia double eagle of this type. It is the second rarest in Uncirculated, trailing only the 1859. I am aware of less than a half dozen in Uncirculated and all are in the MS60 to MS62 range.

1854: The 1854 is not a really scarce date in lower grades but it remains scarce and undervalued in AU58 and above. There are an estimated 25-50 in Uncirculated including an MS64 and MS65 at PCGS. The record price for an 1854 is $96,600 which was set by Bowers and Merena 9/08: 831, graded MS64 by NGC. Finding examples with good luster and decent surfaces is very difficult as most are somewhat dull and very heavily abraded.

There are a number of interesting varieties for the year but the most widely collected is the 1854 Large Date. This issue is rare in all grades and it is very rare in Uncirculated. For more information about this variety, refer to the blog I wrote about Type One varieties dated March 30, 2009.

1855: I am a big fan of this date and it is an issue that I have always believed was rarer than its original mintage would suggest. There are around 1,000 known but just 15-20 qualify as Uncirculated. The best I have seen was a PCGS MS63 (later upgraded to MS64) that was ex: ANR 8/06: 1607. It brought $69,000 and was purchased by a well-known Midwestern collector. The 1855 is really hard to find with good eye appeal as most have been cleaned or dipped and exhibit severe abrasions. Pieces that show good luster, original color and minimal marks are very scarce and typically bring strong premiums over the usual “schlock” offered for sale.

1856: This is another sleeper date that I have been writing about for many years. There are an estimated 500-600+ known with most in the VF to EF range. Any 1856 double eagle that grades AU55 or better is very scarce and this date is quite rare in Uncirculated with just 15-25 accounted for. I have only seen one or two that I graded MS63 and another half dozen or so that I thought graded MS62. An auction record was set by Bowers and Merena 1/08: 584, an NGC MS63 example that was bid up to $27,600. Most 1856 double eagles are very heavily scuffed and the vast majority have unoriginal coloration. Finding an example with good eye appeal is quite a challenge and even though price levels have risen quite a bit for the 1856 in the last few years, I think nice pieces are still vastly underpriced.

1857: For many years, the 1857 was regarded as a common date and lumped with the 1851-1853 issues. We now know that this is not true and my best estimate is that only 900-1200+ are known. The 1857 is more available in higher grades than the 1855 and 1856 with as many as 30-50 known. I have seen two that grade MS64 and another two or three in MS63. Many 1857 double eagles show a below average strike and most have poor luster and very heavily bagmarked surfaces. It has become very hard to locate a piece with original color as well. In my opinion, the 1857 remains undervalued, especially in AU55 and higher grades.

1858: With a mintage figure that is less than half that of the 1857, one would expect the 1858 to be a much scarcer date. These two issues are similar in terms of overall rarity but the 1858 is scarcer in high grades. There are just twenty to thirty known in Uncirculated and I have never seen a piece that graded higher than MS63. Eye appeal is a real problem for the 1858 double eagle and the typical example is somewhat softly struck, subdued in appearance and heavily bagmarked. The price of this date in AU and above has risen in the last few years but I feel the 1858 double eagle is still an excellent value as it possible to purchase a very presentable example for less than $5,000.

1859: When my Type One book was published, I stated that the 1859 was the fourth rarest Type One double eagle from the Philadelphia mint. Because of the aforementioned shipwrecks and other hoards, I now think that the 1859 could well be the rarest Type One from this mint. And if it isn’t the rarest, it is certainly the hardest issue to locate with good eye appeal in higher grades. Virtually every 1859 double eagle I have seen is very heavily abraded and these marks are often in prime focal points such as the left obverse field or on the face of Liberty. While the strike tends to be good, the level of eye appeal is nearly always well below average. I believe that there are around 200-250 known including five to seven in Uncirculated. I have only seen one in MS62 and another three in MS61.

1860: The 1860 is a date that is actually a bit more available than one might expect considering its mintage of 577,670. There are an estimated 2,000 known including as many as 100 in Uncirculated. PCGS has graded one in MS65 and NGC graded the finest of the S.S. Republic coins MS65 as well. This is generally a well-produced year and there are still some examples around that have nice color and good luster. The 1860 tends to come with fewer bagmarks than some of the issues from the mid-to-late 1850’s and the collector should be able to find a pleasing piece if he is patient.

1861: Until the discovery of the S.S. Central America treasure, the 1861 was easily the most common Type One double eagle. Today, it is the second most available after the 1857-S. There are at least 4,000-5,000 known and the actual number could be even higher. This is an easy issue to locate in higher grades with coins in MS61, MS62 and even MS63 sometimes available. As such, it makes a good type coin for the collector who prefers a Type One double eagle that is not from a shipwreck. The finest known is an amazing PCGS MS67 that brought $181,500 all the way back in October 1989 when it was sold at auction. I still regard that coin as the single best business strike regular issue Type One double eagle that I have seen.

1862: For many years, the 1862 was a sleeper date that had attained virtual cult status among the small number of people who collected Type One double eagles. Today, its rarity is better known and its value has increased accordingly. I regard it, along with the 1859, as one of the two hardest Philadelphia issues of this type to find although it is more available in higher grades than its counterpart. This is another date for which eye appeal is a problem. Many 1862 double eagles have very heavily abraded surfaces and the luster is sometimes impaired as a result. There are around a dozen or so known in Uncirculated. This includes a solitary NGC MS64 and a combined four in MS63 between PCGS and NGC. The 1862 remains an extremely challenging issue to locate in all grades and it should prove to be one of the tougher holes to fill in any Type One set.

1863: Until the discovery of a number of higher grade examples in the S.S. Republic treasure, high grade examples of the 1863 were extremely rare. Today there are around three dozen known in Uncirculated including one in MS64 and four in MS63. The eye appeal of this date tends to be significantly better than that seen on the 1862. The 1863 is reasonably well struck and original examples show very nice coloration. Many have been cleaned at one time and I have seen more “no grade” examples of this date than nearly any other Type One double eagle from the Civil War era. The coins from the shipwreck have a very unique (and cosmetically appealing) appearance that makes them easy to distinguish from non-shipwreck coins. They tend to have somewhat grainy luster and lack the extensive marks found on most 1863 double eagles.

1864: There are many more 1864 double eagles known today than back when I produced my Type One book. The majority of the new high grade 1864’s are from the S.S. Republic shipwreck which contained at least seventeen Uncirculated examples. Most were in the MS60 to MS62 range and the 1864 remains extremely rare in MS63 or better. Non-shipwreck examples tend to be a bit scuffy in appearance and have frosty luster. From time to time, original pieces are offered for sale and they tend to show attractive deep green-gold or orange hues. In my opinion, the 1864 remains a scarce and undervalued date that does not receive the attention that the (now) better known 1862 and 1863 are showered with.

1865: Close to three hundred Uncirculated 1865 double eagles were found on the S.S. Republic. Obviously, the rarity profile of this date has changed dramatically in recent years and the 1865 has gone from being very rare in higher grade to reasonably common. Some of the coins from the shipwreck were quite spectacular and the best pieces include one in MS66 and no less than two dozen in MS65.

What exactly is it about the Philadelphia Type One issues that appeals most to me? I would have to say that it is value. Unlike smaller denomination coins from this era, there is enough demand for double eagles that there are not many absurdly undervalued issues. But that said, there are a number of Philadelphia double eagles from the 1850’s that can be obtained in decidedly above average condition (in most cases AU55 to AU58) for well under $5,000. I also like the fact that the Philadelphia issues are completable by the collector of average means (unlike the New Orleans coins of this era which have become the playground of wealthy collectors). If I were going to focus on Type Ones, I would work on a set of nicely-matched AU55 to AU58 coins with choice original color and surfaces.

For more information about Type One double eagles, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.