"Faux Rarities"

One of the ways to determine the strength of the rare coin market is to look at the pricing of coins that I like to call “Faux Rarities.” A Faux Rarity is a coin that, despite a high valuation, is relatively common. Three examples of Faux Rarities are 1879 Flowing Hair Stellas, high grade St. Gaudens High Reliefs and Panama-Pacific Exposition Octagonal $50 gold pieces. It is my opinion that once coins like this start decreasing in price, the market is weakening. Despite the fact that it is technically a pattern, the 1879 Flowing Hair Stella is still collected as a regular issue and this has helped to make it a far more valuable item than if it were regarded solely as a pattern.

An estimated 425 examples were produced but I believe this number is too low and does not factor in Restrikes that were produced later. There appear to be at least 400-500 examples known in grades that range from Damaged Very Fine to Superb Gem Proof. Stellas are most often seen in Proof-63 to Proof-65 and it is hard for me to consider them truly rare when they seem to be available in quantity in every major auction; not to mention in the cases of a number of dealers at major shows.

If you purchased a Gem Proof Stella back in 2000 (at the beginning of the current bull market in rare coins) you probably paid $100,000 or so. If you were a bit later to the party (say 2003 or 2004), a similar coin would have cost you around $200,000. Today, the same quality Stella (graded PR66) might cost as much as $300,000. The problem with the PR66 Stella market is that, due to gradeflation, a PR66 now has a combined PCGS/NGC population that is north of fifty coins. A second thing to consider is that most of the Stellas in today’s PR66 holders have been conserved; unlike the Gems back at the beginning of the decade that tended to be original and very attractive.

I regard the St. Gaudens High Relief in MS66 as probably the ultimate Faux Rarity. Yes, this is a beautiful coin and, yes, it is an historic issue. But it appears to me that as much as 90% of the original mintage still exists and most remaining High Reliefs tend to be very choice.

In 2000, I can remember selling MS66 High Reliefs for around $40,000-45,000. By 2004, levels had risen to $70,000. Today, a nice MS66 will cost the collector around $100,000 or possibly a bit more. Considering the fact that PCGS and NGC have a combined population of 180 High Reliefs in MS66 (plus an additional fifty-one in grades higher than this) it is pretty difficult for me to say with a straight face that this is a “rare coin.” It has been brilliantly promoted but I doubt this issue can sustain enough demand to continue to appreciate in price.

Another classic Faux Rarity is the massive 1915-S $50 Panama-Pacific Octagonal. A total of 645 examples were produced and it appears that virtually all of the original mintage still exists. When the gold commemorative series is popular, there is legitimate collector demand for this issue. But gold commemoratives have been as a dead as a doorknob for a number of years so this level of demand tends to be more artificial. This, I believe, is a characteristic of all Faux Rarities.

Despite an apparent lack of specialized collector demand for this issue, it has been well-promoted during the last few years and Octagonals sell easily at coin shows and auctions. An MS65 example is currently valued at around $125,000, which is an impressive gain over the $100,000 or so it was worth a year or two ago. Five to seven years ago, if you could find an MS65 Octagonal (it is only in the last few years that PCGS started grading MS65’s of this design with any regularity; back in the day, virtually all Gem quality examples were graded MS64) it would have set you back $50,000.

As I mentioned above, I think that these Faux Rarities represent a sort of harbinger for the overall state of the high end of the coin market. When these issues begin to free fall in price (which I think is inevitable given how much they have risen in price in five years) this could well be a sign that the market as a whole is ready to begin a correction. Will truly rare coins get dragged down along with these Faux Rarities? I’m not sure. In the past they have but it appears to me that the market has enough depth this time around that perhaps the Drag Down Effect will not be as strong this time around.

The Proof Gold Market

For those of us who experienced the coin market’s ups and downs in the 1980’s and 1990’s, perhaps the biggest surprise has been the relatively quiet Proof gold market of the past few years. While prices for Proof gold have certainly risen since the beginning of this decade, new collectors don’t seem to regard these coins with the same degree of awe that was seen in the recent past. If you are a Proof gold collector, please do not misinterpret the introductory paragraph I just wrote. I personally love Proof gold and there is no arguing the fact that a $25,000 purchase made in this area in, say, 2001 isn’t worth considerably more today. What makes me sit back and scratch my head a little is the fact that Proof gold just doesn’t seem to be as active a market right now as early gold or key dates from the 20th century. Why?

I have a few theories. The first is the fact that a huge number of Proof gold coins quietly went off the market between 2000 to 2006 to a specific overseas buyer. Today, the supply of interesting Proof gold is the lowest I can remember. If you look at the typical major auction, there are just a few pieces of Proof gold for sale and they tend to be coins struck after 1890 and, more often than not, smaller denominations. When years go by between appearances for rare Proof gold issues, it is difficult for there to be an active two-way market which then results in a lack of pricing information or stimulus for new collectors.

This brings me to theory #2. This lack of material has meant relatively little promotion of Proof gold in the past five years or so. A dealer like me can write articles about how great Proof gold is, how rare Proof gold is and what an excellent value Proof gold is, but if I don’t have any coins available to sell to potential new collectors or investors, what’s the point? If you look back over time, various dealers were always promoting Proof gold. I think the relative lack of supply has caused marketers, retail dealers and other traditional advocates of Proof gold to search elsewhere for trophy coins to sell to new clients.

Something odd that happened in the Proof gold market was an oversupply in the late 1990’s/early 2000’s. The coin market was not especially strong back then and within a few years you had at least four huge collections of Proof gold come on the market at once (Pittman, Reed, Childs and Bass). Proof gold issues that seemed incredibly rare in 1995 all of a sudden seemed kind of common in 2002. As an example, I can remember owning no less than three Proof 1869 quarter eagles at the same time in 2002. This is an issue with an original mintage of 25 and an estimated nine or ten examples known. How was I going to convince a collector that this issue was rare when I owned three of the darn things? Needless to say, I wound-up losing money on two of them.

Another thing that hasn’t helped the Proof gold market is the lack of original coins. I think this is especially true with 20th century issues. I know that I personally pretty much quit buying coins like Proof Indian Head quarter eagles, half eagles and eagles as well as Proof Saints a few years ago because it was so incredibly hard to find coins that hadn’t either been doctored or over-conserved. And it’s often hard for me to pay $25,000, $50,000 or more for a 19th century Proof gold coin that looks like the Gallery Mint produced it last month. I can’t imagine that I’m the only dealer (or collector) who feels that way.

I think what would really give the Proof gold market the shot-in-the-arm that it needs is if a fresh, interesting collection were to come onto the market. It would be especially interesting if this were an out-of-the-woodwork collection where the coins had been bought in the 1950’s and 1960’s; before the era of dipping and conserving (and more) became so prevalent in this area.

Do you have questions or comments about Proof gold? Please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com and I would be happy to assist you in any way that I can.

The Ten Rarest Liberty Head Quarter Eagles

The response to the article that I wrote last month on the ten rarest Liberty Head eagles was so overwhelmingly positive that I’ve decided to extend this format to other denominations of Liberty Head gold. This month’s topic: quarter eagles. The Liberty Head quarter eagle series was produced from 1840 through 1907. Unlike the larger denomination issues of this type, quarter eagles were never produced at the Carson City or Denver mints. Thus, these coins were produced at five facilities: Philadelphia, San Francisco, New Orleans, Charlotte and Dahlonega.

There are numerous ways in which to collect Liberty Head quarter eagles. Most specialists focus on the issues from a specific mint. The most popular individual mint is Dahlonega, followed by Charlotte and New Orleans.

A small but dedicated cadre of collectors attempts to put together a complete set of Liberty Head quarter eagles. Such a set can be completed although at least two or three issues are very rare and quite expensive. This set is impossible to complete in Uncirculated due to the unavailability of at least one issue (the 1854-S) in Mint State. Every other issue, however, is known in Uncirculated although a number of these are extremely rare.

Some of the collectors who are attempting to assemble a complete set of Liberty Head quarter eagles also include significant varieties. These are generally limited to the ones that are recognized by PCGS and/or NGC.

One interesting way to collect this series would be to focus on the major rarities or key issues. But in the case of the Liberty Head quarter eagles, the most famous coins are not necessarily the rarest. Most readers of this article will be surprised that I have not included the famous 1848 CAL in the list of the ten rarest issues of this type. Even though this is clearly one of the ten most popular (and most desirable) issues, it is less scarce than generally acknowledged and it does not make the Top Ten list.

Without further ado, here are the ten rarest Liberty Head quarter eagles along with pertinent information about each issue:

1. 1854-S

2. 1841

3. 1863

4. 1864

5. 1865

6. 1856-D

7. 1855-D

8. 1875

9. 1866

10. 1842

1. 1854-S: The 1854-S is the rarest Liberty Head quarter eagle by a fairly large margin. There are around a dozen examples known from the original mintage of just 246 coins. Something that I have always found interesting about this date is the fact that most of the survivors are extremely well worn. At least five or six of the dozen known either grade VF20 or less or show damage. In fact, I am aware of just two examples that grade EF (by my standards) and a single coin that grades AU. For many years, the 1854-S was overlooked and, in comparison to other great U.S. gold rarities, it was greatly undervalued. The first example of this date to sell for a six-figure price was Bass II: 472 (now graded AU53 by NGC) that brought $135,700 in October 1999. In September 2005, I purchased an NGC EF45 example that was previously unknown to the collecting community out of an ANR auction for $253,000. This record was broken in February 2007 when a PCGS EF45 brought $345,000 in a Heritage sale. My best guess is that prices will continue to rise for this issue and the next comparatively choice example that is made available to collectors will set another price record.

2. 1841: This is probably the most famous date in this series and, for many years, it was the issue that traditionally sold for the highest price when it appeared at auction. Known as “The Little Princess,” it has been stated that “20 pieces” were struck. For many years, numismatic tradition has stated that these were produced only as Proofs. It is my opinion that some (if not most) were also struck in a business strike format. It is also my opinion that the reported mintage is too low and that as many as 50 or so were made. To the best of my knowledge, the current auction record for this issue is $253,000 which was set in June 2004 when Heritage sold an NGC PR65; this broke the previous record set by Bass III: 105 (graded PR64 by PCGS) back in 2000. I believe that a Gem 1841 quarter eagle, if available today, would sell for considerably more than this.

Note: For more information on this issue, please click here.

3. 1864: Placing this date as #3 on my Top Ten list may be a surprise to many collectors who probably expected the 1863 to make the #3 spot. But I feel the 1864 is clearly rarer than the 1863 and that it is one of the most overlooked and undervalued 19th century American issues. Only 2,824 were struck but, as with most gold coins from this era, the survival rate was very low due to significant meltings. I believe that around 15-20 examples are known. This includes an amazing NGC MS67 (ex: Byron Reed collection) that sold for $132,000 back in 1996 as well as two other Uncirculated coins, an NGC MS61 and a PCGS MS61, that are owned by two different collectors in Kansas. There are another six or seven that grade AU and the rest are in the VF-XF range. Despite this coin’s rarity, it is still affordable (especially in comparison to #1, #2 and #4 on this list).

Note: For more information on this issue please click here.

4. 1863: The 1863 is the single Proof-only quarter eagle of this type (although the 1841 has traditionally assumed to be as well; see above for my refutation of this belief). There were a total of 50 pieces struck of which I would estimate that around 20 or so exist. I place this coin as #4 on my Top Ten list based on the fact that I have seen far more 1863 quarter eagles available for sale in the last ten years than 1864 quarter eagles. Nonetheless, this is a very rare coin and it has always been a stopper for date collectors of this denomination. As recently as the middle of this decade, prices for this issue were relatively modest, considering this date’s rarity and significance. Nice PR63 to PR64 examples were selling for $35,000-50,000+ until a few years ago when prices began to jump; as they did for all Classic Rarities. The all-time auction record for this issue was set in January 2007 when Heritage sold an NGC PR66 Deep Cameo for $149,500. I have handled three examples of this date in the last four years. The 1863 quarter eagle is generally found with light hairlines but excellent contrast and very deep mirrors. It is a date whose importance is only now being fully realized and I believe that it is an issue whose price levels will continue to soar as this series becomes more popular.

5. 1865: Due to the fact that it has a mintage of just 1,520, some people have assumed that the 1865 is a rarer date than the 1864. This is not the case as the 1865 appears to have a slightly higher survival rate. My best estimate is that there are 25-35 examples known. According to the PCGS Population Report, there is an example graded MS63. I am not aware of this piece but assuming that it exists, it is by far the finest known and it is the only Uncirculated 1865 quarter eagle that exists. Both PCGS and NGC show an abnormally high number of coins graded AU58 and this is as a result of multiple resubmissions. I believe that there are around six or seven properly graded AU’s known as well as another ten or so in EF. When available, this date tends to have below average eye appeal due to very scuffy surfaces. I haven’t seen more than a handful of 1865 quarter eagles that were totally original and choice. At current price levels, I think this coin is excellent value as it is a major rarity that can be purchased in a Condition Census-level grade for less than $20,000.

6. 1856-D: There may actually be one or two quarter eagles that I placed lower on this list that are scarcer than the 1856-D. But these don’t have the little “D” mintmark placed on the reverse; a feature that makes this coin so endearing to specialists. Oh—and they don’t have an original mintage of just 874 coins either. The 1856-D is the rarest Dahlonega gold coin of any denomination with an estimated 45-55 pieces known. It is generally seen in EF grades with many advanced collectors holding out for a nice AU coin for their collection. As I have mentioned in past writings, this is probably the single hardest United States gold coin to properly grade due to the fact that it was poorly struck from improperly prepared dies and many examples have the luster and surfaces of one grade but the detail of another, far lower grade. The current auction record for an 1856-D was set by yours truly when I purchased the Heritage 4/06: 1513 coin for $71,875. This piece graded MS61 by NGC and it is certainly among the finest known.

Note: For more information on this issue please click here.

7. 1855-D: The 1855-D is the second rarest Dahlonega quarter eagle. For a number of years, I believed that it was the rarest but this is mistaken as the 1856-D (see above) is clearly rarer. Only 1,123 1855-D quarter eagles were struck and an estimated 50-60 are believed to exist. This issue tends to be a bit better struck than the 1856-D but it is another issue that the eye appeal tends to be negative. Any 1855-D that is well struck and which shows original color is very rare and worth a significant premium over the typical example. Most are seen in the VF to EF range and properly graded AU’s are very rare. I have only seen one or two that I regard as Uncirculated. The finest known is the example in the Smithsonian that is said to grade MS62 or thereabouts. The all-time auction record is Heritage 4/06: 1512 (graded MS61 by NGC) that realized $54,625.

Note: For more information on this issue please click here.

8. 1875:If this article had been written a few decades ago, it is likely that the 1875 would have ranked much higher up the list. With an original mintage of just 400 business strikes, it is easy to see why this date was once believed to be an extreme rarity. It appears that the 1875 is actually a bit more available than one would assume (this is also the case with the ultra-low mintage gold dollar of this year) with as many as 50-60+ pieces known. That said, the 1875 quarter eagle is still extremely popular and I love the fact that the collector of average means can still purchase a decent EF example, given the fact that these still trade in the $4,000-5,000 range. The 1875 becomes rare in properly graded AU55 and it is very rare in Uncirculated with four to six known. The finest I have seen is Goldberg 5/99: 666 (graded MS64 by PCGS; it sold for $25,300) while the second best is probably the Bass II: 587 coin (graded MS62 by PCGS; it brought $17,250 back in 1999). The 1875 quarter eagle is nearly always found with fully prooflike surfaces but it is easy to distinguish from a Proof due to an entirely different date position.

9. 1866: As you can tell from this list, the Philadelphia quarter eagles from 1863 to 1866 include many of the rarest individual issues in this entire series. The 1866 is not quite in the same league as the 1864 or 1865 but it is another rarity with an original mintage of just 3,080. There are around 55-65 known with most in the EF40 to AU50 range. The 1866 is extremely scarce in the middle AU grades and rare in properly graded AU58. There are around five or six known in Uncirculated. Interestingly, this date was unknown in Uncirculated at the time Akers wrote his seminal guide to quarter eagles. I am aware of at least two Gems and another coin that grades MS64. The all-time auction record is held by Heritage 5/07: 2239 (graded MS65 by PCGS; it sold for $40,250). All 1866 quarter eagles have satiny luster and surfaces that show pronounced horizontal die striations.

10. 1842: This is probably the least well-known date in my Top Ten list and, honestly, I think I am slighting it by ranking it as “only” #10. The 1842 quarter eagle is very scarce in all grades and around 50-60 are known from the original mintage of just 2,823. Unlike the 1866 and 1875, this issue is generally seen in very low grades and it becomes extremely rare in AU. I doubt if more than five to seven properly graded AU’s exist and in Mint State the 1842 is unique. I sold a PCGS MS62 a number of years ago to a Kansas collector who owns the finest set of Liberty Head quarter eagles ever assembled. I had earlier bought the coin from the Superior 9/99 auction where, as Lot 1863, it sold for $31,050. Despite this issue’s unassailable rarity, it is still very reasonably priced. I have seen examples in EF grades bring between $3,000 and $5,000 at auction which seems downright cheap for a coin that is many times rarer than its better-known (and more expensive) branch mint counterparts from this era.

There are a number of other Liberty Head quarter eagles that I think are worthy of Honorable Mention status. These include the 1844, 1845-O (if the Top Ten list featured bonus points for popularity, I would have certainly included this date instead of the far less popular 1866 or the more obscure 1842), 1862/1, 1863-S, 1867 (possibly the most underrated date in the entire series) and the 1872.

Improving Your Collection Without Spending Alot

Someone recently asked me a question that I thought was interesting and that merited a detailed response. To paraphrase this question, they basically asked me this: can you tell me some ways that I can improve my collection while spending little or no money? Are there any actual ways that you can make your collection better without dropping a lot of coin (bad pun intended)? I believe that there are and here are a few that came to mind:

1. Bring Out Your Dead. Every collector has them. Duds. Bad deals. Low end duplicates. You know what I’m talking about: the Dead Zone of your collection. These coins may represent more value than you realize. As an example, I recently had a relatively expensive double eagle in stock that a collector wanted for his set but he had no extra money at the time. I had him send me a list of the dead coins he owned; bullion, generic Saints, Morgan dollar rolls, etc. The value of his “stuff” was considerably more than he realized and he was actually in a nice profit position on his bullion. The choice to trade spillage for one nice, rare coin was easy for him to make. And the good news was that he had enough money left over so that he can actively pursue another neat coin or two.

2. Attribute Your Coins. If you collect series like Bust half dollars or large cents you are probably already a die variety collector and all of your coins are properly attributed. But what if you are a collector of early half eagles and you have never bothered to attribute your coins to Bass-Dannreuther variety numbers? And what if one of your supposedly common half eagles turns out to be a very rare die variety that is worth a 30-50% premium? Seems like a no brainer to me. Even if you collect a series for which there is no standard reference work, it makes sense to examine your coins with a 10x glass and see if anything interesting is happening. Who knows, maybe you’ll discover a previously unknown mispunched date or a cool double date that has not been recorded.

3. Invest $500 to $1000 in improving your library. If you collect early gold coins you probably own the Bass Dannreuther book and a few other standard references. But do you own pertinent auction catalogs? It has long been my belief that one of the best uses of your money is a good library. You’ll get more enjoyment out of your coins if you know more about them and there is no better way to learn about a series, especially one that is somewhat obscure, than reading books and catalogs. If you don’t know which books or catalogs to pursue, ask a specialist dealer which ones he refers to or, better yet, contact a numismatic literature dealer and ask for some suggestions.

4. Improve your peripherals. If you are using an old, slow computer you are missing out on the “full experience” when it comes to coins. Not everyone has the luxury of owning a sporty, brand-new computer but with the price of monitors having dropped so considerably in the last few years treat yourself to a 16 inch or 18 inch flat screen monitor. It’s just a few hundred bucks and it sure beats viewing coin images on an old, low resolution screen. Spend some money on a good quality new magnifying glass and a high quality lamp to view your coins as well. You’re looking at $50-100 for a world-class loupe and around $100-150 for a professional quality halogen coin lamp.

5. Research the pedigrees of your coins. This area is not relevant if you a collect fairly common series. If you are working on a set of business strike Indian Head quarter eagles in MS60 to MS62, it will be virtually impossible to determine the pedigree of these coins. But if you specialize in an area like Dahlonega quarter eagles or Fat Head half eagles, it is quite possible that some of the coins in your collection come from famous collections. Not everyone reading this will agree with me, but I believe that the “right” pedigree adds value and collectability to a coin and to discover that your 1847-D quarter eagle is from the Norweb collection or the Green Pond sale is pretty darn exciting. And if you collect Colonials or early cents, there is a possibility that a coin you own could have a pedigree that goes back over 100 years.

6. Start a cheap secondary collection. I’ve mentioned before that there is nothing more frustrating than being a collector who is either cash-strapped or at a point in his collection where there are no easily available holes to fill. In a scenario such as this, I always recommend having a cheap but interesting secondary collection to fulfill your “need” to buy something and to keep out of trouble. How about 18th century British Condor tokens? They are fascinating, well-designed and you can buy lovely examples for less than $100. Start a “one country one coin” collection where you purchase one coin from every country that currently makes coins. Or, focus on a certain year (say 1899), figure out every country that existed at the time and buy one copper or silver coin from each of these nations.

7. Immortalize your collection. Let’s say you’ve worked on a neat specialized collection for a number of years but you are currently “out of gas” due to finances or unavailability of stopper dates in the series. Why not create a website that focuses on your coins and/or the series you collect. As an example, say that you are working on a set of No Motto Liberty Head eagles. There’s never been a book that has specifically focused on these coins; just works such as my New Orleans reference that has included them as specific issues within a larger context. You could buy the URL nomottoeagles.com and create a research site that lists the finest known pieces, varieties for each year, auction records, etc and which had photos of each of your coins. I have seen this done for a few specific types (as an example, a collector has done this for Trade and Seated Dollars and the results are extremely impressive). Doing this is a win-win for everyone involved. It gets people more interested in the series you already collect and it gets potential buyers more interested in your coins when you are ready to sell. Plus, it seems like a fun thing to do in your free time.

Traits of Successful Coin Dealers

Coin dealers are an “interesting” (yes, this is an ironic use of quotes) group. If you were to take the top fifty professionals in this field and examine their personalities, I believe that a number of the same traits would be seen in a majority of these individuals. What are some of these traits? And do you have what it takes to be a successful coin dealer? With very few exceptions, most of the top coin dealers have been involved in coins since they were very young. I can’t think of more than one or two coin dealers who I regard as being at the top level of the industry who were not buying and selling coins by the time they were in their early teens (or in some case, before this). Many people have asked me why this is the case. I think that being a good coin dealer is something that is almost genetic in its origin. You can’t really teach an adult the skills to be a truly good dealer. It’s almost as if the top dealers were born with a “coin dealing gene.” If you are a 42 year old insurance salesman with a passing interest in coins, it’s pretty unlikely that, within a few years, you are going to be a force on the bourse floor.

And speaking of genes, I think that every good coin dealer has what I call the “collecting gene.” Even though I don’t really collect coins anymore, there are a number of other areas that I avidly collect. Virtually every great dealer I know is also a serious collector of something; and many have multiple non-numismatic collections. These range from paper money to vintage photographs to globes to muscle cars. If you do not have a passion for collecting, you probably aren’t going to amount to much when it comes to dealing.

Coin dealers have exceptional memories when it comes to coins. I think I qualify pretty highly in this regard but my memory is very selective. As an example, it usually takes me a number of times meeting a collector until I remember his name. But I can generally remember this collector’s coins that he showed me in 1984 and, more distressingly, in great detail. I find the same to be true with many other of the dealers who I respect. They have an absolutely uncanny ability to remember coins they have handled, deals they have done, auctions they have attended, etc. If you have a poor memory when it comes to details, you are not likely to become a good dealer, let alone a great one.

You may not agree with me on this point, but I contend that most very successful coin dealers are extremely intelligent. Note that I did not say that they are “highly intellectual.” As you can probably imagine, post-show coin dealer conversations do not tend to involve favorite philosophers, the merits of particle physics or favorite 17th century English poets. But I think f if you measured the IQ level of most dealers, you would find it to be well above average. In a nutshell, if you are not extremely bright, you are not likely to be a good coin dealer.

Really good coin dealers are also really good entrepreneurs. Very few of them work well in a corporate setting and this is why it never seems to work when a “real” company tries to buy a coin company or when a coin company brings in a “real” businessman to manage it. If you’ve spent years working at XYZ Corporation in a management capacity, you are going to be freaked out by the coin business. But if you are 22 and a recent college graduate who paid for your education by selling vintage rock T-shirts on Ebay, you might find the coin business to be right up your alley.

The best coin dealers are also excellent at risk management. As an example, they can look at coin or a collection and quickly figure out what their upside and downside risk is. I find that most of the coin dealers who I regard as exceptionally talented are risk takers but they understand how to control their risk. The coin dealers who scare me are the loose cannons who take crazy “shots” at coins in auctions (i.e., buying a coin in an MS63 holder and paying an MS65 price in the hope that it will upgrade two points) or who are overly-leveraged. The insane risk-takers are the guys who get much of the publicity at shows or auctions but the smart guys are the ones who, at the end of the day, walk away from their bourse tables (or their office desks) with a smile on their face.

Good coin dealers have to work very hard and slackers do not do well in what has become an extremely competitive industry. There are a number of underachievers in the coin market but they tend to be guys who bounce from company to company as employees or low-level wheeler-dealers whose inventory rarely changes. In the current market, you need to be willing to travel extensively and work long hours to stay ahead of the competition.

Some of the coin dealer traits that I’ve mentioned above have been augmented by changes in the coin market. There are new dealers specializing in areas like moderns who clearly have not been involved with coins since they were nine and who do not have a “collector gene.” These are people with non-numismatic backgrounds who look at coins like widgets and whose computer savvy or marketing expertise allows them to be active market participants. They may not be “coin dealers” in the classic sense of the word but they certainly have an important role in the future of the coin market.

The Jascha Heifetz Collection Sale

For a period of around seven years (1986-1993), Superior became one of the major forces in the United States coin auction market. During this time, they conducted a number of extremely impressive sales which included some of the more interesting specialized collections of this era. Today’s generation of collectors seems to have little knowledge of these Superior auctions and this is a shame as some of them are invaluable references. In my opinion, the single greatest sale that Superior conducted during this era was the Jascha Heifetz collection which was held from October 1st to October 4th in 1989. Heifetz (1901-1987) is regarded as one of the greatest violin players of all-time and he was paid rock-star fees for performances during his lifetime. This meant that Mr. H was able to lead the good life, including a stately mansion in Beverly Hills, a weekend getaway in Malibu, a Bentley and the ability to indulge in hobbies such as coin collecting.

If I remember correctly, the majority of the United States coins in this sale were not actually owned by Heifetz. There were extremely interesting consignments from other collectors including an incredible run of San Francisco gold coinage, remarkable type coins, choice Patterns and a small run of early dollars which included stunning Gem examples of the 1795 Flowing Hair and Draped Bust as well as a mind-boggling 1799.

Something that I find very interesting about this sale is that it is one of the last major auctions conducted by Superior that included a large number of fresh, unslabbed coins. By 1989, the concept of slabbing high quality coins had become pretty standard. But it is interesting to see that a number of very nice raw coins were still available.

What I find even more interesting is looking back at the Heifetz catalog and seeing how nice the coins were back then. And I’m not talking about common coins in uncommon grades. The sale included long, long date runs of items like PR64 and better Morgan dollars with lovely original color, really nice mintmarked gold in VF, EF and AU grades with original color and surfaces and Proof gold from the 1860’s and 1870’s in PR63 to PR65 grades that doesn’t look like it recently escaped from a Science Project Gone Awry. In 1989, you could still find many coins like this in a good auction. Today, you simply can’t.

The Heifetz sale realized $16.3 million dollars. In this day and age, this amount is no big deal. But back in 1989 it was a ton of money for an auction. And if you spend a little time looking at the coins in the sale, guesstimating what they would grade today and figuring numbers...this sale would probably bring well over $50 million today!

You don’t believe me when I tell you the coins in this sale were cheap, cheap, cheap? How about a few random examples. Lot 3770 was a beautiful NGC MS65 1892-O Micro O half dollar in MS65. It sold for $20,900 in the Heifetz sale; today it’s easily a six-figure coin. A nice PCGS EF40 1794 dollar was offered as Lot 3814 and it sold for $39,600. Today, you couldn’t buy a 1794 dollar that had been run over by a train for less than $40k. Lot 3995 was an NGC EF45 1841 quarter eagle that was bid up to $25,300. Today, this coin is probably in an AU53 or 55 holder and is worth something north of $100,000. Lot 4426 was a raw 1857-C half eagle graded EF45. From the photo I’d say it’s an AU55 by today’s standards. It sold for $770 at the Heifetz auction. I am a seller of coins like this in 2007 for around $3,500-4,000.

My favorite coin in the sale was Lot 3816, a 1795 Draped Bust that was graded “MS66 Superb” by Superior. In case you aren’t aware of this, Superior had a reputation for being very conservative with their grading back in the 1980’s and early 1990’s and for an early dollar to be graded MS66...well, it had to be a really special coin. And this piece was just breathtaking. Amazing color, nearly prefect surfaces, incredible details; I remember thinking that if I could own just one United States coin this 1795 dollar would have to be pretty high up on the list. It wound-up selling for $231,000 which was an amazing price at the time but which seems cheap today.

One last lot—then I’ll stop. A raw VF30 1870-CC double eagle was sold as Lot 5060. I paid $18,700 for it and sold it to a client for $20,000. He recently sold the coin back to me (after we sent it in for grading where it was called an EF40). I sold it for nearly 12x his original cost. Not bad for a heavily circulated Carson City double eagle!

Looking back at the Heifetz sale, it’s amazing how much has changed in the past two decades. Superior imploded a few years after the Heifetz sale and is now an entirely different company than the firm that conducted the great run of auctions from 1986 to 1993. $16 million dollar auctions are now commonplace. Auctions are now full of slabbed coins. Grading standards are clearly different and prices have, in many cases, risen dramatically since 1989. Most interesting, what seemed pedestrian in 1989—from the standpoint of available coins—is now unusual if not downright rare today. In many ways, the Heifetz sale was the end of an era and this epic, impressive auction deserves to be better-remembered than it is today.

1825/4 Half Eagle

Lost amid the hoopla of the recent Baltimore ANA and the numerous auctions that accompanied this show was the sale of one of the greatest United States gold coins in existence. Even more remarkable was the fact that in this day of “ho hum, another million dollar coin just sold,” this sale received relatively little publicity and the final price realized was, in retrospect, pretty reasonable, all things considered. There are two distinct varieties known of the 1825 half eagle. The more available is 1825/4 Unevenly Spaced Date (Bass-Dannreuther 1) which, for many years, was known as the “1825/1.” Recent research has shown that the underpunched digit is, in fact a 4 as it is positioned at the same angle as found on the 1824 half eagle.

The second variety of 1825 half eagle (BD-2) has always been known as an 1825/4 overdate but it is more properly termed the 1825/4 Evenly Spaced Close Date.

For many years, the 1825/4 BD-2 half eagle was regarded as unique. The discovery piece was originally in the Col. Mendes Cohen collection and it was eventually sold to Louis Eliasberg after stints in the Earle and Clapp collections. In the 1982 Eliasberg sale, the coin was cataloged as Proof-60 and it sold for $220,000. I have never personally seen the Eliasberg 1825/4 half eagle but John Dannreuther states in his book on early gold that, in his opinion, it is not a Proof.

In 1978, a second example of the 1825/4 BD-2 half eagle turned up and this story of its discovery is almost as fascinating as the coin itself. In the early part of the 20the century, a collector named N.M. Kaufman was an active (but little known) purchaser of early gold rarities. His collection was exhibited at the Marquette County Savings Bank. Unfortunately, the curator of this exhibit was clearly not a savvy numismatist as he mounted them to a board using tacks (for those of you who just passed out after reading this, I will pause for a second...) Many of the Kauffman coins suffered rim damage from this procedure, ranging from very minor to rather severe.

The Kaufman example of the 1825/4 BD-2 half eagle was sold by RARCOA in their famous August 1978 auction where it realized $140,000. It later brought $148,500 in the B&M 3/89 auction and in 1992 it sold in another B&M auction for a very reasonable $105,600. The last time the coin sold it realized $241,500 in the Superior 2/99 auction.

The coin itself was housed in an old NGC holder and it appeared to be considerably better than its current AU50 grade. However, I’d be careful cracking it out if I were the new owner as the rim marks from the aforementioned display at the Marquette Bank will become more visible if the coin is unencapsulated (this is not intended to scare the new owner of the coin—in looking at the photo of it in the Kaufman catalog, it appears that the tack marks are minor and limited to the upper obverse and corresponding reverse. I have personally seen—and owned—coins from this collection that had significantly more visible tack marks).

Given the rarity of this coin (one of only two known) and the fact that it brought close to a quarter of a million dollars all the way back in 1999, I expected that this coin would be the object of considerable bidding and that it had a legitimately good chance to break the million dollar barrier.

The reserve for the 1825/4 BD-2 half eagle in the Heritage sale was $550,000. The coin wound up selling to a phone bidder for $600,000 plus the buyers’ fee, for a final price realized of $690,000. Why didn’t such a great coin bring more?

As I studied the history of this coin, there was something I learned that I found to be very interesting. On page 395 of his book, John Dannreuther explained the reason why Harry Bass never bought the 1825/4 BD-2 half eagle (he had at least three chances to do so between 1978 and 1992 and price, of course, was not an object for Harry...). Bass regarded this issue as a variety and he was not willing to pay an “excessive premium” for this particular variety.

The more I thought about this, the more sense it made to me. Bass realized before nearly anyone else that there was no such thing as an 1825/1 half eagle. Keeping this in mind, he already had a superb 1825/4 (the BD-1 variety that is plated in the Dannreuther book and which is regarded as a one-sided Proof). The bottom line is that he had an 1825/4 half eagle and a hell of a nice one at that. Given this fact, why pay such a large premium for what is technically a variety?

But not everyone is as sophisticated as Harry Bass and the 1825/4 BD-2 half eagle in the ANA seemed to me to be the kind of coin that would sell for “moon money.” I’m certainly not pooh-poohing $690,000 as this is a lot of money but it’s not the $1 million or so that I thought it would bring prior to the sale.

My best guess why it didn’t reach the magical million mark was the fact that it was “only” graded AU50. In order for two Masters of the Universe to go head to head in a bidding Battle of the Titans, my gut feeling is the coin would have had to have been Uncirculated.

So here’s a hearty congratulations to the new owner of this fantastic early half eagle. You have purchased a wonderful coin with a great pedigree and a great story and it will, no doubt, become an integral part of your collection. And if the circumstances had been just right, I’m certain that you would have had to pay a lot more for the privilege of owning your extraordinary 1825/4 half eagle!

Philadelphia No Motto Half Eagles & Eagles

I’m beginning to gain a new-found appreciation for --gasp!-- No Motto half eagles and eagles from the Philadelphia mint. Read on for some thoughts about these coins and why I’m beginning to see them in a new light. As I’ve mentioned more than once, No Motto half eagles and eagles from Philadelphia have never ranked high on the list of popular coins in the world of DWN. I’ve found these coins to be somewhat mundane and boring and haven’t really bothered all that much with them. So what’s happening to change my mind?

I love originality. It saddens me to see that such a large percentage of branch mint gold issues have been scrubbed and processed and now look like Frankencoins. Ironically, because of their lack of popularity, the major coin doctors have (temporarily) ignored No Motto Philadelphia half eagles and eagles. In essence, the connoisseur of truly original mid-19th century coins has almost nowhere to turn other than Philadelphia.

This was really clear to me when I was viewing the recent auctions in Milwaukee as part of the ANA festivities. I disliked most of the branch mint coins. But I saw a decent number of No Motto Philadelphia half eagles and eagles in the AU50 to MS63 range that were choice, original and quite attractive. Had my anti-Philadelphia gold prejudice begun to fall by the wayside?

Now, before you drop your jaw on the table and think that I’ve committed numisheresy, let me expand on what I just stated. I’m certainly not abandoning my strong interest in branch mint coins and starting to focus on Philadelphia coins; that’s far from the case. What I am realizing, though, is that these Philly issues may be more interesting than I thought.

Here’s a few reasons why I like these coins:

The collector of average means can put together nice date runs from the 1840’s and the 1850’s. As an example, there are really no rare Philadelphia half eagles struck between 1839 and 1861. Nearly every date can be found in nice AU55 to AU58 for well under $2,000 (in some cases under $1,000). If you can’t afford a nice collection of Charlotte, Carson City, Dahlonega or New Orleans gold, you can still participate in the Philadelphia gold market.

The coins are well made and are found with original surfaces with greater frequency than their branch mint counterparts. For the collector who insists on originality, you will find many more attractive pieces than in the branch mint series.

This is a virtually uncollected area. Good news: you have very little competition. Bad news: when you go to sell your collection, no one may care.

If you like varieties, this is a very fertile area. Other than Harry Bass, almost no one has ever searched through these issues for major varieties and I’m willing to bet some very interesting coins are awaiting discovery.

No Motto Philadelphia half eagles and eagles are close to a century older than Indian head half eagles and eagles yet they offer the gold coin collector a lot more bang for the buck. $2,500 won’t buy you very much in the way of an interesting or rare Indian Head half eagle. But it will buy you a pretty scarce Liberty Head half eagle from the 1840’s.

Unlike some of the 20th century gold series, No Motto Philadelphia gold has never really been promoted or heavily marketed. Price levels have stayed flat for many years and there are some real sleepers in both the half eagle and eagle series awaiting discovery by the student of the series. As I stated above, I’m not planning on abandoning my focus on branch mint gold coins any time soon. But after some careful thinking, I’ve decided that maybe No Motto Philadelphia gold coins aren’t the Numismatic Pariah that I thought they were for many years.

Market Musings

It’s a rainy Monday morning here in Portland and the sudden lack of sunshine is leaving me highly unmotivated. To try and shake out the cobwebs, I’m going to touch on a few miscellaneous topics of interest. If I were a syndicated folksy newspaper columnist, I’d call this Monday Mornin’ Market Musings. Lucky for you, I’m not. Sales of the Wexford Collection of Dahlonega Coinage have been excellent with close to $500,000 placed within the first few weeks of being posted on my website. I have noted a few definite trends thus far.

I have been surprised (but not shocked) by the extreme popularity of the key dates in this collection. One of things that was especially nifty about the Wexford coins was that nearly all the key Dahlonega issues were present and, for the most part, they were extremely nice. I could have sold half a dozen examples of the 1861-D gold dollar in PCGS AU55 and probably even more examples of the 1838-D half eagle in PCGS EF45.

While many of the coins were bought by existing clients, I did sell coins to at least two brand new people including one who had never bought a Dahlonega piece.

Two other observations can be gleaned from the first few weeks of sales. The first is that the Dahlonega quarter eagle series is clearly alive and well. I sold a number of expensive, key issues to serious collectors. The second is that gold dollars are a little weaker than I would have expected. I did sell the three most expensive gold dollars in the set but other examples, including a few that I felt would sell quickly, have not yet found new homes.

One last thing. In my rush to get the coins cataloged and imaged and out on the web for a few days before I took them to the ANA show, I didn’t have time to fully research them. It turns out that the 1840-D quarter eagle is the ex: James Stack coin while the 1856-D quarter eagle was formerly in the Bass collection. The new owners of each coin were quickly able to deduce this and I congratulate them on these terrific new additions to their collections.

I’ve been asked by a number of collectors how I think CAC is affecting the coin market. I can’t really speak for areas like Indian Cents or Buffalo Nickels but I think CAC is having a very strong affect on selected areas of the United States gold coin market.

In my experience, CAC is extremely tough on generic issues, especially common date Saint Gaudens double eagles. I have heard of dealers sending groups of 25 or 50 common date Saints in MS65 to CAC and having as few as two or three stickered. Because of this fact, MS65 and better Saints with CAC stickers are currently trading for significant premiums.

Another area that is definitely being affected by CAC is early gold. CDN Bids for early gold are continuing to go up but these bids are posted by John Albanese and are reflective of only CAC quality coins.

What this has done to the early gold market is to make it, effectively, two-tiered. As an example, John’s current bid for an 1812 half eagle in MS62 is $15,000. My guess is that a really nice, CAC-quality MS62 is pretty easy to sell for $15,000-16,000 on a wholesale level and might be worth as much as $17,500-18,500 on a retail level. But a nasty, overgraded MS62 example of the same date is not going to be of interest to John (or any other quality-oriented CAC dealer) at $15,000; it is more likely a coin with a wholesale value of $13,000-14,000. What the challenge for buyers of coins of coins like this is to determine which 1812 half eagle in MS62 is ultimately worth $13,000 and which one is worth $16,000+.

Speaking of early gold, I’ve had a few people ask me lately if they feel that prices on this material are going to continue to rise in the coming year. My answer to this is “yes but with an asterisk.”

As I mentioned above, the early gold market is becoming much more selective; partially on account of CAC. If coins like the aforementioned 1812 half eagle in MS62 are going to continue to bring these strong new price levels (remember, this is an issue that was trading for $8,000-9,000 just three years ago) they have to be very solid for the grade. By this, I don’t mean that every 1812 half eagle in an MS62 has to be an upgrade candidate. But for me (or John Albanese or whoever else) to pay $15,000 for one, it has to have good luster, a lack of significant wear or rub, nice color and a reasonably pleasing overall appearance.

I believe that there are certain areas of the early gold market that have become very pricey. For me to pay $35,000 for a 1799 eagle in MS61, it has got to be a nice coin that I feel is really “new.” If it is recolored, obviously worn, full of unsightly hairlines or covered with goop, I’m out at the current price levels. Same goes with Heraldic Eagle and Capped Bust Left half eagles in AU55 to MS64. If they aren’t really solid, original coins then I have a hard time liking them at current levels.

Conversely, there are other areas of the early gold market that I still like. As you no doubt know, I am a big fan of nearly all early quarter eagles, especially the Draped Bust series of 1821-1827 and the “mini-Fat Heads” of 1829-1834. And despite very strong price advances in recent years, I still feel that the half eagles of 1813-1834 form one of the most interesting and exciting series of United States coins for collectors with large budgets.

Most importantly, the demand for early gold remains strong. In addition to many avid collectors, there are a few coin funds that love early gold and they are continuing to buy it as long as the coins are “all there.”