"Faux Rarities"

One of the ways to determine the strength of the rare coin market is to look at the pricing of coins that I like to call “Faux Rarities.” A Faux Rarity is a coin that, despite a high valuation, is relatively common. Three examples of Faux Rarities are 1879 Flowing Hair Stellas, high grade St. Gaudens High Reliefs and Panama-Pacific Exposition Octagonal $50 gold pieces. It is my opinion that once coins like this start decreasing in price, the market is weakening. Despite the fact that it is technically a pattern, the 1879 Flowing Hair Stella is still collected as a regular issue and this has helped to make it a far more valuable item than if it were regarded solely as a pattern.

An estimated 425 examples were produced but I believe this number is too low and does not factor in Restrikes that were produced later. There appear to be at least 400-500 examples known in grades that range from Damaged Very Fine to Superb Gem Proof. Stellas are most often seen in Proof-63 to Proof-65 and it is hard for me to consider them truly rare when they seem to be available in quantity in every major auction; not to mention in the cases of a number of dealers at major shows.

If you purchased a Gem Proof Stella back in 2000 (at the beginning of the current bull market in rare coins) you probably paid $100,000 or so. If you were a bit later to the party (say 2003 or 2004), a similar coin would have cost you around $200,000. Today, the same quality Stella (graded PR66) might cost as much as $300,000. The problem with the PR66 Stella market is that, due to gradeflation, a PR66 now has a combined PCGS/NGC population that is north of fifty coins. A second thing to consider is that most of the Stellas in today’s PR66 holders have been conserved; unlike the Gems back at the beginning of the decade that tended to be original and very attractive.

I regard the St. Gaudens High Relief in MS66 as probably the ultimate Faux Rarity. Yes, this is a beautiful coin and, yes, it is an historic issue. But it appears to me that as much as 90% of the original mintage still exists and most remaining High Reliefs tend to be very choice.

In 2000, I can remember selling MS66 High Reliefs for around $40,000-45,000. By 2004, levels had risen to $70,000. Today, a nice MS66 will cost the collector around $100,000 or possibly a bit more. Considering the fact that PCGS and NGC have a combined population of 180 High Reliefs in MS66 (plus an additional fifty-one in grades higher than this) it is pretty difficult for me to say with a straight face that this is a “rare coin.” It has been brilliantly promoted but I doubt this issue can sustain enough demand to continue to appreciate in price.

Another classic Faux Rarity is the massive 1915-S $50 Panama-Pacific Octagonal. A total of 645 examples were produced and it appears that virtually all of the original mintage still exists. When the gold commemorative series is popular, there is legitimate collector demand for this issue. But gold commemoratives have been as a dead as a doorknob for a number of years so this level of demand tends to be more artificial. This, I believe, is a characteristic of all Faux Rarities.

Despite an apparent lack of specialized collector demand for this issue, it has been well-promoted during the last few years and Octagonals sell easily at coin shows and auctions. An MS65 example is currently valued at around $125,000, which is an impressive gain over the $100,000 or so it was worth a year or two ago. Five to seven years ago, if you could find an MS65 Octagonal (it is only in the last few years that PCGS started grading MS65’s of this design with any regularity; back in the day, virtually all Gem quality examples were graded MS64) it would have set you back $50,000.

As I mentioned above, I think that these Faux Rarities represent a sort of harbinger for the overall state of the high end of the coin market. When these issues begin to free fall in price (which I think is inevitable given how much they have risen in price in five years) this could well be a sign that the market as a whole is ready to begin a correction. Will truly rare coins get dragged down along with these Faux Rarities? I’m not sure. In the past they have but it appears to me that the market has enough depth this time around that perhaps the Drag Down Effect will not be as strong this time around.

The Ten Coolest United States Coins Revisited

In June 2000, I wrote an article entitled “The Ten Coolest United States Coins.” Let’s say you were a true Douglas Winter Numismatics cultist and you had decided to follow my advice to the letter. How would your seven year investment have performed? Are there any coins I would have deleted from this list? Some analysis and random thoughts regarding these ten coins follows. In 2000, I suggested purchasing an example of this popular, historic issue in Choice About Uncirculated and stated that an example would cost around $10,000. I think this amount represented a typo as, even back then, a Continental Dollar in AU would have cost at least twice the amount I listed.

My decision to include this coin was prescient, to say the least. This has proven to be among the most popular and in-demand early American issues in the last seven years. And how can it not have been? This issue has everything going for it: size, interesting history, unique design and the magical 1776 date.

Today, a nice AU 1776 Continental Dollar will probably cost in the area of $60,000. And if you had bought a really nice AU55 to AU58 back in 2000, the chances are better than even that this coin would be regarded as an MS61 today with an estimated value closer to six figures. Clearly, this would have been a very good purchase.

I. 1776 Continental Dollar

This is not a regular issue coin but, rather, a proposed or speculative issue. Varieties are known in silver, pewter and brass and with different spellings of the word CURRENCY. For this set, I would suggest a pewter piece with the spelling "CURENCY" and the lack of the designers initials (represented on this coin as "EG FECIT," which is believed to signify that the design was by Elisha Gallaudet).

It is probable that these coins did circulate in colonial America and that they did have a recognized value. This fact makes them a legitimate candidate for the first "dollar" struck in this country as well as the largest coin, in terms of size, issued prior to the establishment of the United States. The magical date 1776 makes them even more desirable, in my opinion. And, finally, the charming design on the reverse (featuring thirteen interlinked rings with the name of each colony and symbolizing unity) is believed to have been suggested by Benjamin Franklin.

For this set, I would opt for a very slightly worn piece; perhaps in the About Uncirculated-55 to 58 range. I like the idea that the coin saw some light circulation during the colonial era but would want it to be lustrous and well struck. Such a coin would cost $7,500-$10,000; making it an exceptional value for such an incredibly historic issue.

II. 1792 Half Disme

This is another coin that seemed much undervalued to me back in 2000. I like this issue for many of the same reasons I mentioned above for the Continental Dollar: great story, interesting design and fascinating history. In 2000 I suggested purchasing a nice AU example and felt it would cost around $10,000-15,000. If you had been able to find a nice half disme back then, you probably would have been able to buy it at the high end of my suggested range.

As with most early coins, this is an issue that has performed fantastically since 2000.

If you can find a good looking AU55 to AU58 half disme (and this will be hard as most real AU coins are now in MS61 and MS62 holders) you are probably going to have to pay around $100,000 for this coin. Even an example which looks like its been run over by a train is going to cost in the mid-five figures.

Without patting myself on the back too much, I’d have to say that this choice was a home run. Of course, I wasn’t smart enough to listen to myself and actually put away any nice half dismes...

III. 1793 Chain Cent

There aren’t all that many coins left that still give me a tingle in the spine when I buy one, but Chain Cents qualify. I love the design and history of these coins and admire the fact that they have been coveted by collectors since the late 1850’s.

In 2000 I recommended buying an EF or an AU Chain Cent and felt that it would have cost in the area of $20,000 to $45,000. It wouldn’t have been easy to find a decent looking example but with some searching you might have been able to buy one with good detail and reasonably choice surfaces.

Today, Chain Cents are not only nearly impossible to find in grades above VF20, they are just about the most overgraded type I have seen in third-party holders. Coins that I personally grade Fine-12 are housed in EF-40 holders and both services seem to conveniently overlook the fact that coins in EF holders are riddled with problems.

Assuming you could find a decent coin in 2007, you’d be looking at spending $60,000-80,000 plus for an EF and at least $100,000 for an AU.

This was a good choice but in retrospect I think I might have selected a 1793 Liberty Cap instead. But, as I recall, I didn’t choose this type in 2000 because I thought it would be impossible to find one that I liked even back then.

IV. 1794 Silver Dollar

This is the first and largest United States silver coin. Any well-heeled collector who couldn’t be sold on the desirability of this coin back in 2000 had to truly have his head in the sand.

In my 2000 article I suggested a nice EF example of this coin and that such a piece might be available in the $75,000-90,000 range. This value range might have been just a touch low and I’m guessing that if anyone did take my advice, they probably had to pay closer to $100,000.

Regardless of what this theoretical collector paid, if he did buy a 1794 dollar, he did very, very well. Early dollars caught fire a few years ago and the 1794 proved to be the ultimate trophy coin in the early dollar series.

A nice EF 1794 dollar today is worth $250,000 to $300,000. Any significant investment made in early dollars around 2000 would have done fantastically well seven years later but the 1794 is the one issue which I believe will continue to show the greatest strength in the future.

V. 1795 Eagle

I selected this coin for my group of 10 because it is the first United States gold coin and it is the sort of big, neat, old gold coin that new and old collectors alike seem to love. Looking back at this choice, I might have changed it to a 1796 quarter eagle or another 18th century issue.

In 2000, a nice About Uncirculated 1795 eagle was available for around $30,000-35,000. Such a coin would have graded AU53 to AU55 (and would grade AU55 to AU58 in today’s looser environment). Today, the same sort of coin would be priced at around $80,000-90,000; possibly a bit more if the coin was original and had nice eye appeal.

I am not as enthusiastic about this issue today as I was seven years ago. I think at close to $100,000 the 1795 eagle in AU is pretty pricey, given the fact that it still somewhat available. More importantly, most pieces in AU holders are really low end for the grade.

Still, a rise in value from $35,000 or so to around $90,000 isn’t too shabby for a seven year hold. This is typical of most early gold during the past seven years.

VI. 1836 Gobrecht Dollar

I didn’t choose a Proof 1836 Gobrecht Dollar as one of my Ten Most Cool Coins because of its history or numismatic significance. I chose this issue because I love the design. There’s just something about the stark cameo-like appearance of the obverse and the eagle flying in the field of stars on the reverse that I’ve always found very appealing. Apparently, I’m not the only one who thinks this way.

Back in 2000, nice PR63 Gobrecht Dollars seemed pretty cheap. They could be bought for around $20,000. Today, the same coin is more likely to cost in the area of $30,000-35,000. So the gain that this coin has shown has been pretty impressive although it pales in comparison to some of the early issues listed above.

Personally, I think PR63 and PR64 1836 Gobrecht Dollars are still a good value and even though the market for these pieces is a bit soft right now, they are a good long-term purchase at current levels. Examples which are too dark should be avoided as should pieces which have been overdipped and which are now bright white.

VII. 1850 Double Eagle

What could I possibly have been thinking when I put this issue on my list of Ten Cool Coins? Sure it’s interesting and it has status as a first-year-of-issue but I’d hardly put it in the same ballpark as the other nine coins on this list.

That said, this issue has performed very nicely since 2000, especially in high grades. In my first article, I suggested purchasing an MS61 and figured that such a piece would be obtainable in the $6,000-9,000 range. Today, a nice MS61 sells for $12,000 or so.

In retrospect, a Liberty Head double eagle collector could have done a lot better from an investment standpoint if he had purchased a few nice New Orleans pieces. As an example, the 1854-O and 1856-O issues have shown spectacular price gains in the past seven years and even the secondary rarities such as the 1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O, 1861-O and 1879-O have performed exceptionally well.

I’m not going to totally disown this choice but I’m pretty embarrassed to see it alongside such issues as a 1794 Dollar or a Chain Cent.

VIII. 1861-D Gold Dollar

The 1861-D gold dollar remains my favorite Dahlonega coin of any denomination. It’s the most historic southern issue, I love the crudeness of its manufacture and it is, of course, genuinely rare.

Back in 2000, the 1861-D gold dollar seemed to be available on a somewhat regular basis. With a little luck and patience you could find one at auction or in a specialist’s inventory. Today, these coins seem to have disappeared and I have not personally handled an 1861-D in close to a year.

I recommended purchasing a nice AU58 example and suggested that it would cost $17,500-20,000. If you heeded my advice, you did very well as a similar example would probably fetch double that amount today. What makes this all the more remarkable is the fact that the high end of the Dahlonega market has been fairly flat in the past seven years with certain coins actually dropping in value despite what is arguably the most sustained bull market in modern numismatic history.

This is another coin which I would hang on to for the long term if I had one put away right now. Despite its rise in price, it is a coin which is in great demand and which has such a wonderful story that it can’t help but appreciate in value in the coming years.

IX. 1879 Flowing Hair Stella

Unlike the 1861-D dollar, the 1879 Flowing Hair Stella is a truly rare coin. If you check auction records over the past few years, you’ll note that a lot of pieces have sold. But I still think the Stella is a coin that is genuinely cool. It is interesting, has a unique design and history and it really is a perfect “trophy coin” for a well-heeled investor.

In 2000 I suggested purchasing an example that graded PR63 (back then, Stellas existed in this grade. The PR63 of 2000 is now a PR64). A nice example would have been available back then for around $50,000-55,000. Today, the same coin would probably be worth around $150,000.

When nice Stellas were worth $50,000 or so they were a great value. At today’s price level, I don’t really like the value that they represent. But, I can certainly see how coins like this trade for $150,000 given their great story and always high level of demand.

Time to pat myself on the back one final time. This was a great recommendation and if you listed to me you made a ton of money!

X. 1907 High Relief Double Eagle

I can remember struggling with the decision to make this the tenth and final coin on my list. High Reliefs are big, beautiful and “cool” but they are just so...common. I hated to put a coin on this list that I knew could be obtained by the truckful at major auctions and conventions. But this was a list built around cool coins and if a High Relief isn’t a cool coin than what was?

My recommendation was to purchase a nice MS64 and back in 2000 this coin was obtainable in the $14,000 to $17,000 range. For a number of years, the market for High Reliefs stayed pretty flat but this coin was extensively promoted in 2005 and 2006 and it rose in value to a high of around $35,000-40,000. Today, the market for these has softened and a nice MS64 High Relief is more likely to sell in the $26,000-28,000 range.

If I were in the market for a High Relief as an investment, I’d probably consider buying one now, while prices are somewhat depressed. I’m guessing that MS64’s could drop as low as around $22,500-25,000 but at that level there would be enough market support that people would jump in and start pushing up demand.

So there you have it. Ten Cool Coins revisited seven years later. Had you bought some or all of these coins you would have tripled your money and had a pretty neat little coin collection to boot. The best lesson to learn from this list is that cool coins are always what people will want to buy, regardless of what series or price range you are discussing.

The Ten Coolest United States Coins

About five years ago, a dealer who specialized in ultra-expensive United States coins had an advertising campaign that said, basically, your entire coin collection should be able to fit into a single PCGS/NGC coin storage box. Such a box holds exactly twenty coins. This was obviously an elitist sentiment and it was generally derided as being pretentious. But I thought it had some merit. In numismatics, quality is always a surer bet than quantity (although a large quantity of great quality is best of all...)

I recently got a phone call from a wealthy new collector who asked me to draft a very interesting proposal for him. He was interested in collecting coins but he had very little spare time available to devote to learning about them. So he asked me to come up with a list of ten coins that, in my opinion, were the most significant United States issues.

As I got to thinking about this list of coins, I drew up the following parameters:

    The coins had to be very historic. Their historic significance had to be easily understood, even by someone who didn't know much about U.S. History or coinage. They had to be coins that were always in demand, in good markets and bad. They had to have multiple levels of demand. In other words, they had to be considered desirable by a number of different groups of collectors. They had to be attractive in terms of their design. They had to be rare, but not so rare that they commanded an inordinate date premium.

This collector gave me some other parameters to consider as well. While wealthy, he did not have unlimited funds; nor did he like coins enough that he wanted to put an inordinate amount of his net worth into his collection. This collection would not consist of the "finest known" or the "best" of anything. Rather, it would consist of ten attractive, original, above-average quality examples of the ten most interesting and readily liquid United States coins. In essence, this collection would be themed as the "coolest coins ever struck in the United States," if you will.

Here is the list that I prepared for this collector, along with why I thought each coin should be in this small but special collection.

1. 1776 Continental Dollar

This is not a regular issue coin but, rather, a proposed or speculative issue. Varieties are known in silver, pewter and brass and with different spellings of the word CURRENCY. For this set, I would suggest a pewter piece with the spelling "CURENCY" and the lack of the designers initials (represented on this coin as "EG FECIT," which is believed to signify that the design was by Elisha Gallaudet).

It is probable that these coins did circulate in colonial America and that they did have a recognized value. This fact makes them a legitimate candidate for the first "dollar" struck in this country as well as the largest coin, in terms of size, issued prior to the establishment of the United States. The magical date 1776 makes them even more desirable, in my opinion. And, finally, the charming design on the reverse (featuring thirteen interlinked rings with the name of each colony and symbolizing unity) is believed to have been suggested by Benjamin Franklin.

For this set, I would opt for a very slightly worn piece; perhaps in the About Uncirculated-55 to 58 range. I like the idea that the coin saw some light circulation during the colonial era but would want it to be lustrous and well struck. Such a coin would cost $7,500-$10,000; making it an exceptional value for such an incredibly historic issue.

2. 1792 Half Disme

After obtaining its independence from Great Britain, one of the first legislative acts that the United States considered was the establishment of its own coinage. The first experiments were conducted in 1792. Most of the initial United States mint issues are extremely rare today. The most available is the 1792 Half Disme (the spelling of the word "Dime" was not changed until the beginning of the 19th century).

The story behind this coin is very interesting. George Washington was actively involved in its production and legend has it that he contributed his family's personal silverware for use in the striking of these coins.

Approximately 1,500 pieces were made and survivors are a bit more plentiful than generally realized. This is an extremely significant coin as it is the first United States issued struck by mint personnel in any quantity for use in circulation.

For this set, I would look for a nice About Uncirculated coin with original coloration and nice surfaces. The current value of such a coin is approximately $10,000-$15,000.

3. 1793 Chain Cent

The first two denominations to be struck by the United States mint were the half cent and the cent. Coinage for both began in 1793. Three designs are known for 1793 cents. The first, and most appealing in my opinion, is the Chain Cent.

A total of 36,103 1793 Chain cents were produced. The very first of these are easily identified by having the abbreviation AMERI. (for AMERICA) in the reverse legend. In my opinion, these are by far the most desirable of the major varieties and it is believed that around 7,000 were produced.

Chain Cents are often found very well worn and generally come with the obverse much weaker than the reverse. For this set, I would select a nice brown Extremely Fine to About Uncirculated piece. I would be very careful in making my selection and would look for a piece with good eye appeal, an above average strike and nice surfaces. Coins like this are rare and in great demand and I would expect to pay well in excess of current published values. An Extremely Fine coin is currently valued in the $20,000-$30,000 range while an About Uncirculated coin is worth $35,000-$45,000+.

4. 1794 Silver Dollar

The silver dollar was among the first coins authorized by the United States government. It is hard to think of a more significant coin for the fledgling United States than the dollar as it was the largest circulating coin at the time, both in terms of its size and its value.

This was a very difficult coin for the new mint to strike as they did not own equipment for coins larger than a half dollar. In addition, most 1794 dollars were struck from improperly aligned dies, making the date, the left stars, and the words UNITED STATES appear very weak.

Of the 1,758 pieces believed to have been struck, around 125 are known today. For this set, I would look for a nice, evenly worn Extremely Fine with as sharp a strike as possible. In particular, I would look for a coin with a well-defined date and reasonably sharp stars. This is another issue that is in great demand and nice coins always bring much more than published values. I would expect to pay between $75,000 and $90,000 for the right piece.

5. 1795 Eagle

The eagle, or ten dollar piece, was the highest denomination American coin until the twenty dollar gold piece was authorized in 1849. The essence of this coin is very easy to state in a few words: it is the first year of issue of the most important early gold type.

Only 5,583 1795 eagles were struck. There are a few hundred pieces known and this includes more high grade pieces than one might expect. The 1796 eagle is a much rarer coin and it is very undervalued in relation to the 1795. But I would much rather have the 1795 due to its significance.

For this set, I would choose a nice About Uncirculated example with clean surfaces, no significant adjustment marks, original color and a sharp strike. Such a coin, when available, would probably cost in the area of $30,000-$35,000.

6. 1836 Gobrecht Dollar

After a three decade hiatus, the silver dollar was resurrected in 1836. Its design was considered one of the most important projects undertaken by the new Mint Engraver Christian Gobrecht. From 1836 to 1839, he prepared a number of designs; which are among the most attractive coins ever struck in the United States in my opinion. My personal favorite is the so-called 1836 "original" with the engraver's name on the obverse and the reverse with stars above and below the eagle.

1,000 of these were struck as Proofs at the end of 1836. They were made for circulation and can be distinguished from those struck in 1837 (but dated 1836) by the orientation of the eagle on the reverse. They are generally found with some degree of wear and, for some reason, uncleaned pieces generally have extremely deep toning.

For this set, I would select a Proof-62 to Proof-63 example with attractive coloration, minimal detracting hairlines and good overall eye appeal. I would expect such a coin to cost in the area of $15,000-$20,000.

7. 1850 Double Eagle

The first regular issue double eagles are dated 1850; examples were struck at both the Philadelphia and New Orleans mints. Although the Philadelphia issue is much more available than its branch mint counterpart, I have long felt that the 1850 double eagle was one of the most important United States coins. In a nutshell, it is the first collectible Double Eagle and the twenty dollar gold piece is the largest and most popular United States gold coin.

1,117,261 1850 double eagles were struck and this is not an especially scarce issue in circulated grades. There are around 40-60 known in Uncirculated with most of these in the MS-60 to MS-61 range. This date is often found with an especially sharp strike, nice coloration and very good eye appeal.

For this set, I would select a Mint State-61 example that was original, lustrous and minimally abraded. The cost of this coin would be in the area of $6,000-$9,000; making it among the best values in this collection.

8. 1861-D Gold Dollar

The 1861-D gold dollar is the only coin that can be positively proven to having been struck by the Confederacy. After the branch mint at Dahlonega was seized in April 1861, a small number (1,000-2,000) were produced. Unlike such issues as the 1861-C half eagle and the 1861-O double eagle, which had mintage figures that include Federal and Confederate strikings, every single 1861-D gold dollar is a Confederate striking. This makes these coins, in my opinion, among the most historic issues available to collectors.

There are approximately 75-100 examples known with the typical specimen grading About Uncirculated. This issue is generally found with a poor strike and some planchet irregularities.

The 1861-D gold dollar I would choose for this set would be a very high end About Uncirculated-58 with as good a strike and as clean surfaces as possible. The cost for such a coin would be in the range of $17,500-$20,000.

9. 1879 Flowing Hair Stella

The four dollar "Stella" (so named because of the prominent star on the reverse) was a result of discussions regarding international trade coinage during the 1870's. A very limited number were made, with two different designs, during 1879 and 1880. The most available of these is the 1879 Flowing Hair.

The official mintage figure for the 1879 Flowing Hair Stella is 425 coins, although it is possible that a few more were produced. Approximately half of the original mintage survives today, in grades ranging from Very Good to Gem Proof.

My choice of Stella for this set would be a Proof-63. I would try to look for a coin with nice original surfaces, pleasing color and minimal hairlines or marks. A coin of this quality would cost in the area of $50,000-$55,000.

10. 1907 High Relief Double Eagle

Theodore Roosevelt believed that United States coinage designs had, by the early 1900's, become stale and out of touch. He was particularly eager to redesign the four United States gold denominations. For the eagle and double eagle he hired the prominent sculptor Augustus St. Gaudens.

St. Gaudens' battle with the entrenched Mint personnel is well known as is their subterfuge of his spectacular original design. The "High Relief" that most collectors are familiar with today is a severely watered-down version of his incredible "Ultra High Relief" design. Nevertheless, the 1907 High Relief is still widely regarded as the most beautiful American gold coin.

11,250 examples of this design were struck and the survival rate is uncommonly high. Despite this coin's relative availability, it is still a highly priced coin. But it is priced relative to its extreme popularity and, in my opinion, it is an essential member of this ten coin set.

The High Relief that I would include would be a high end MS-64. The cost of such a coin would range from $14,000 to $17,000.

Conclusion

The total cost for this set, with each of the coins in the grade ranges described above, would be approximately $250,000-$350,000. It would probably take a number of years to complete this set, especially if the collector is very particular in regard to the quality of each piece.

It is my opinion that this would be a great set of coins to assemble. There are certainly other American coins that can also be considered "cool," but these are the ones that I find most appealing.