Coin Collecting Questions & Answers

I recently spoke at length to a number of people who were strongly considering becoming coin collectors. They all asked me a number of great questions. I thought I’d share one from each of them along with my answers. Q. How do I find a reputable dealer?

A. I recently moved to a new city (Portland, Oregon) and had to find all new doctors, tradespeople and stores. I made my decisions two ways. For the big decisions I relied on recommendations from trusted friends and acquaintances. For the less significant decisions I went with my gut. Choosing the right coin dealer(s) is the same.

If you’ve decided to form a highly specialized collection (Middle Date Large Cents, Three Dollar gold pieces or Civil War Tokens, as examples) find out who wrote the standard reference works and who typically handles the greatest number of choice, high quality pieces within a specific specialization. If you are working on a more general collection, ask around. Post on the PCGS and NGC message boards and determine whether Dealer X has a good reputation or not. I’d also strongly recommend sticking with PNG dealers. These individuals tend to be more established and reputable and most of the leading dealers are members of this organization.

And, finally, trust your gut. If a dealer strikes you as being a blowhard or a sleaze, don’t deal with him. Remember: your first impression about a coin dealer (or just about anyone else, for that matter...) is usually correct.

Q. Can I teach myself to grade coins based on images on websites?

A. Not a chance. Coins are three dimensional objects and until images are capable of accurately representing three dimensional objects they will never show subtleties such as luster and surface preservation. A good photograph can give a new collector a decent impression of a coin’s appearance but a clever photographer can manipulate an image through lighting or digital enhancement(s). Not to mention the fact that most new collectors do not really even know what they are looking at when they view images.

So, how does a new collector teach himself to grade? I’m not sure I can provide an answer that most collectors want to hear. I think that many collectors will NEVER be able to learn how to grade really well because grading is an aptitude. It’s no different than being able to hit a baseball or not. A limited number of people can hit a baseball well and only a few hundred people in the world can do it well enough to play professionally. Same with coin grading.

What the collector CAN teach himself is how to determine of a coin is nice or not. You may never be able to consistently figure if an MS66 is a nicer coin than an MS65 but you can be taught that certain “looks” on a coins are preferable to others. And that, I think, is what the new collector should aspire to learn.

Q. Is it important to go to coin shows?

A. It depends. I personally think that going to third-rate coins shows is a complete waste of time. But for the new collector, a good show like FUN or Summer ANA or Baltimore can be a useful experience. I think shows are more important as fact-gathering sources for new collectors than as places to buy coins. At shows you have to make quick decisions in a setting that is less than optimal. If you establish a good relationship with a dealer or two, you can be sent coins on an approval basis, view them at home, study price and population data and generally feel a lot less pressured than if you have to make a snap decision at the dealer’s table.

Q. How important is price when it comes to buying coins?

A. Everyone likes to feel that they got a fair value when they buy something. The same holds true with coins. But collectors who are totally focused on price are probably going to wind-up with a mediocre collection. I’m not making this statement just because I’m a dealer and I’m trying to “convince” you to pay a price for my coins, or anyone else’s. I can tell you, however, that to buy nice coins you have to be willing to pay a strong price. Collectors who are primarily focused on price are probably going to do this at the exclusion of quality.

So how, then, do you establish what a fair price is for a coin? For items that trade with frequency, like a common date MS65 St. Gaudens double eagle, this is very easy. You can see what examples have sold for at auction and you can check various dealer websites and see what specific coins are being listed for. With rare, thinly traded coins it is harder to determine value. Auction prices realized are certainly a good source. Asking a trusted dealer what you would have to pay for a certain coin is good idea as well.

Do you have questions about rare coin collecting that you’d like answered? If so, please feel free to email them to me at dwn@ont.com. I make no guarantees that they will get featured in future blogs but if I like your question(s) there is a good chance that they will become a topic of discussion.

DWN Sells Silver, Too!

There’s a good side and a bad side to being a well-known specialist. On the plus side, when a collection of rare gold coins comes on the market, I am usually offered first shot. But I’ve become somewhat pigeon-holed as a guy who seldom strays from the Gold Ghetto when buying and selling. I guess I was expecting some sort of reaction when I listed a group of Carson City silver for sale on my website yesterday. But I was pretty surprised at how many people called or wrote me to ask “Hey, what’s up with the silver coins on your site, Mr. Gold Expert.”

OK, to summarize: No, I’m not giving up my hard-earned position as The Man when it comes to Southern gold. Yes, I am going to start dealing more extensively in non-gold coins, especially the silver issues from Carson City and New Orleans.

I have a long history when it comes to 19th century silver. Back in the 1970’s when I was a young kid collecting coins, I couldn’t begin to think about paying the going rates for a Charlotte or Dahlonega piece. So I became a serious collector of Seated Liberty issues, especially quarter dollars. I assembled a nice partial set of circulated Seated quarters (which I sold in the mid-1980’s and which I wish I had held on to, as there were some pretty nifty coins in it) and to this day I remain fascinated with Seated (and Bust) issues.

A few people asked me yesterday if I am “bored” with Southern gold. Absolutely not—I still love these coins and continue to get excited by pieces as humble as a crusty 1851-C gold dollar or as exotic as an MS62 1839-C half eagle.

What does frustrate me, I’m afraid, is how difficult it has become to find nice gold coins for my inventory. So many pieces have been destroyed in the last few years. As a purist, it makes me sort of sad to see many of the nice Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I remember from the past now ruined forever. And as a pragmatist, I know I have fewer and fewer Winter-esque coins available to sell.

So the obvious solution is for me to diversify. Part of me would like to try a brand new area like World Gold... except for the fact that I know nothing about these coins and at this point of my life I am not eager to start a long and probably expensive learning process.

Thus, the thought of going back to my roots and rekindling my long love affair with Seated and Bust coins. This is an area I’m already pretty knowledgeable in. In fact, I’ve quietly built two of the finest collections of Carson City silver ever assembled as well as a few other world-class sets of Bust and Seated coins, including many very rare Proofs and alot of neat, finest known or Condition Census pieces as well.

My perspective on the silver coin market is just like I view gold coins. I like coins that are rare and I like coins which are original.

So, is DWN about to become The Source for rare silver coinage? Not likely. But I think there’s room in the coin market for a reputable dealer to sell nice $2,000-10,000 PCGS and NGC graded silver coins which are attractive, original and rare. Coins like an 1873-CC Arrows Dime in VF or a nicely toned Uncirculated 1848-O half dollar. Coins, in other words, that offer the collector good value and which I would buy for myself if I were still building a Seated Liberty or Bust silver collection.

2007 Charlotte ANA Show Review

I think if you ask most dealers if they had a good show at the spring ANA in Charlotte they would give you a resounding “no!!” To be honest, I didn’t think I had an especially successful show either until I added up my sales numbers on the plane ride home. My sales volume at the show was actually extremely impressive. There were some definite problems with this show. First and foremost was the fact that it was exactly a week before the Baltimore convention. A number of larger dealers decided that they did not want to attend back-to-back shows on the east coast. I know I was not excited about having to fly from the left coast to the right coast twice in less than a week (except for the 10,000+ miles I’d be adding to my Frequent Flyer Account balance...) For the most part, this show lacked any buzz and the public attendance seemed pretty light on Thursday and Friday.

I go to coin shows primarily to buy and from that standpoint, the Charlotte show was not a success. There was an almost total lack of fresh material available. Luckily, I was able to purchase a few very neat items from collectors who I know in the Charlotte area (some of which are already listed for sale on my website; others are out being graded at PCGS or NGC and will be listed in the next few weeks).

Due to a lack of submissions, NGC stopped taking coins for on-site grading and this meant that almost nothing was “made” at the show. That, combined with the fact that most people brought just a small portion of their inventory with them, meant that very little interesting material was available for sale.

I would suggest to the ANA that in the coming years they make sure that their spring convention is held a few weeks before or after Baltimore. I am not attending any shows in April and, upon reflection, I’d tell the ANA to choose a slower month like this to hold their show.

Some dealers complained about the location but I think Charlotte is an excellent coin town and a really first-rate city. The convention facility was excellent, I liked my hotel and you can’t beat the friendliness and hospitality of the locals. I just wished I didn’t have to fly 3,000 miles to get there.

I didn’t participate in the Heritage sale with my usual enthusiasm for a number of reasons. I did attend part of Friday night’s gold session, mainly to watch the sale of Steve Duckor’s amazing 1920-S $10.00 in PCGS MS67. As I had written in an earlier blog, I expected this coin to set a record for the Indian Head eagle series and to become the first example of this type to eclipse the $1 million mark. My prediction proved prescient as the final price realized was an amazing $1.725 million.

The 1920-S opened up at $550,000 and it quickly shattered the $1 million mark. There were at least five people bidding on the coin and three were still very much alive at over $1 million. Needless to say, Dr. Duckor was thrilled about the sale and I’m happy that he did so well. If I’m not mistaken, this is very likely the most money any living collector has ever made on a single coin. Steve paid $85,000 for the 1920-S back in 1982. I’m not sure what this works out to on an annualized basis but a profit of nearly a million-and-a-half bucks on a single coin seems pretty impressive to me.

Prices at the rest of the sale seemed strong. I didn’t buy much and even some of the coins which I thought I bid strongly on went primarily to Internet bidders.

The market seems more two-tiered than ever. As an example, I had some exceptionally nice high quality fresh Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles available at the show and nearly every one of them sold quickly. But I saw tons of low quality, overgraded dipped-n-stripped pieces which, even at substantial discounts relative to Trends, weren’t selling. This seems to be the case in nearly every series. Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?)

I expect next week’s Baltimore show to be very active. This doesn’t necessarily mean that lots of great coins will magically appear on the market but every dealer I spoke to in Charlotte is excited about the show, meaning that the mood, at least, will be very upbeat.

The 1864 Quarter Eagle

One of my all-time favorite “sleeper” issues is the 1864 quarter eagle. Although not well-known outside of the specialist community, the 1864 is not only among the rarest Liberty Head quarter eagles of any date, it is also one of the rarer Liberty Head issues of any denomination struck for general circulation. Production of gold coinage at all mints was extremely limited during the final years of the Civil War with the exception of double eagles. The Philadelphia mint all but eliminated the quarter eagle denomination from 1863 through 1865. In 1863, only 30 Proofs were struck (none were issued for circulation) while in 1864, a total of 2,824 pieces were struck for circulation. In 1865, the mintage dropped back down to a scant 1,520 and it would remain at well under 10,000 per year until 1873.

You would expect the 1864 quarter eagle to be a rare coin with an original mintage of just 2,824 but it has a very low survival rate. I estimate that no more than 15 or so exist including one or two which have been harshly cleaned. It is interesting to note that the 1865, with a mintage which is nearly 50% lower, is at least twice as available.

The moment you begin to study some numbers about the 1864 quarter eagle, the more impressive this date becomes. As an example, PCGS has graded just eight examples in all grades, giving it the second lowest population of any business strike Liberty Head quarter eagle (trailing only the extremely rare 1864). NGC has graded even fewer with just six coins recorded.

Studying auction records for the last fifteen years provides even more impressive results. There have only been twelve coins sold at auction since 1993. Perhaps the most remarkable fact about this date is that the Bass collection, which contained multiple examples of most very rare quarter eagles, had just a single low grade example: a cleaned piece with the sharpness of Extremely Fine.

I thought it would be interesting to create a Condition Census for this date which is something I’m not certain has ever been done before. Here are the finest 1864 quarter eagles of which I am aware.

1. Private collection, via Spectrum Numismatics, ex: Spink America 10/96: 57 ($132,000), Byron Reed collection. Graded MS67 by NGC. I think this is one of the most amazing United States gold coins in existence. It is among the two or three best pre-1880 quarter eagles I have ever seen and it is among my favorite United States gold coins of any date or denomination.

2. Kansas collection, ex: Doug Winter, Nevada collection, Bowers and Merena 1/96: 1848 ($27,500; as NGC MS60). Graded MS61 by PCGS.

3. Kansas collection, ex: Doug Winter. Graded MS61 by NGC. It is in a different collection than #2. I actually handled both of these coins simultaneously and I am almost certain that this was the only time in numismatic history that a coin dealer had two Uncirculated 1864 quarter eagles in stock at one time(!)

4. PCGS has graded one piece AU58. It is possible that it may be either coin #2 or one of the coins listed below.

5. Heritage 9/02: 8005 ($20,700), ex: Heritage 1/01: 8099 (unsold). Graded AU58 by NGC.

In addition to these five coins, there is a single piece graded AU55 by PCGS, two coins graded AU50 by NGC and a single coin graded AU50 by PCGS. Altogether, there are a total of two pieces known in Uncirculated, another six or so in AU and probably another half dozen that grade EF.

Every 1864 quarter eagle I have seen is very well struck. Both the obverse and the reverse tend to display full detail in the centers. A few are just a bit weak on the eagle’s right (or facing) leg. The surfaces are quite scuffy and show a number of marks and hairlines. As one might expect from an issue with such a low mintage figure, the surfaces on most of the survivors are quite reflective. I have seen a few lower grade pieces which appeared to be more frosty than reflective but this was probably the result of long, intense wear. The natural coloration is a medium to deep orange-gold hue. Most every piece I have seen has been cleaned or dipped at one time, although the Byron Reed and PCGS MS61 coins listed above were both quite original. The eye appeal for this issue is definitely below average. Most 1864 quarter eagles show a good deal of wear, have been cleaned and do not possess pleasing color.

The current Trends value for this date is $21,000 in EF40 and $27,500 in AU50 with no prices listed for grades higher than this. In my opinion, these figures are way too low, especially for AU50. This is a remarkably rare coin that appears for sale at a rate of less than once per year and if it were a part of a more popular series than Liberty Head quarter eagles, it would trade for at least $40,000-50,000 in AU grades.

Numismatic Miscellany

It’s another depressing, rainy day in Portland. What better way to share the love than to touch on some miscellaneous topics which while interesting are probably not “deep” enough to write a full blog on. A friend of mine recently made an interesting observation. In the six years since the final Bass sale, there has been any number of great specialized gold coin collections offered for sale at auction. This includes but is not limited to the Duke’s Creek collection of Dahlonega gold, the Old West and Morgan collections of Carson City gold, the Kutasi collection of Indian Head gold, the Lang collection of Carson City gold, etc. But in this time period, there have been no great specialized collections of early gold coinage, particularly quarter eagles and half eagles (specifically from 1813 to 1834).

Clearly, these coins are popular. And they have doubled or tripled in price in the past six years so you’d think that the new price levels would have brought a collection or two on the market. So where are these coins? If you look through most typical auctions these days you might find decent examples of the 1813, 1814, 1818 and 1820 half eagles. But where are the rarer dates?

I’m not certain that I know the answer but my guess is that a) these coins are rare enough that even if a relative “flood” were to come on the market you’d still only be talking about two or three examples of dates like an 1827 quarter eagle or an 1826 half eagle every year and b) the collectors who own coins like this tend to be deep-pocketed and the sort of people who once they buy a nice quality 1827 quarter eagle or 1826 half eagle keep it in their collection indefinitely with no intention to sell it. Option C, which I subscribe to a bit less, is that there are really no “collections” or coins like this in the first place, given their rarity and the high price per coin that collecting these series entails.

In the past month I’ve had no less than four or five clients mention to me that they really dislike NGC holders, particularly when it comes to small-sized coins. Before I start in on this point, let me make myself clear as I realize what I just said is a bit ambiguous and it could be misinterpreted. These people were commenting on the aesthetics of the NGC holder itself and not on the ability of NGC to grade coins.

After carefully looking at a few of the gold dollars and quarter eagles in my inventory which are in NGC holders, I think I can see their point. Small sized coins don’t look good in NGC holders. The coins look jammed into their openings and the rims are often lost. Many pieces wind up tilted at a rakish angle because they don’t fit properly. My suggestion to NGC would be to enlarge the openings for smaller coins. In PCGS holders, these coins appear to “float” and look more spacious because of the fact they are placed in a membrane which gives them more space.

I’m sure that NGC has more important items on their plate but when a number of sophisticated collectors all complain to me about their dislike for these holders (and voice their complaints completely independently of one another) it makes me think that NGC might have a big problem with small coins (sorry, couldn’t resist that pun…)

I recently read in a numismatic book dealers catalog (of all places…) that it was time to retire the auction catalog and have all coin auction catalogs appear on-line or on CD’s. While this sounds like a great theory in practice and it makes me feel all Jetsons-like to think that I could live my coin life paper-free, I do not agree with this idea.

There are two reasons that I like auction catalogs. The first is their tangibility. I may be showing my age here but I’m the sort of person who likes spending an hour every morning reading actual newspapers and not waking up with my cups of joe and the New York Times online. There is something visceral about having a newspaper in my hands that gives me pleasure. The same is true with a coin auction catalog.

The other reason I like the auction catalog format is that I can make notes in a paper catalog when I view the coins. If I’m perusing the latest Heritage or Stack’s sale online, I can’t make notes unless I print out pages. And if I have to resort to doing this, why not just have a catalog?

One thing I would suggest to the auction firms is to give their bidders a chance to custom design their catalogs. Customization is a huge new trend in retailing and it allows someone, as an example, to design a pair of Nike sneakers online according to their personal specifications. I would personally prefer that I get a Heritage catalog in the mail that contained only the series which interest me. This would reduce the bulk of the typical catalog and it would make me feel a bit more “green” knowing that I saved a few hundreds pages of paper every month. Given the technology which is ready available in the area of printing and customization, I would suggest that specialized catalogs are something that could be done easily and cheaply.

An Analysis of Carson City Eagles Through Recent Major Auction Results: Part Two

Last month we looked at how the sale of the Old West and the Morgan collections of Carson City gold coinage impacted the market for half eagles from this mint. This month, we’ll look at the results as they apply to Carson City eagles. Just a few refreshers before we get right into the number crunching. The Old West collection was sold at auction by ANR in August 2006. It contained a nearly complete set of CC half eagles and a complete set of eagles. I sold all the eagles to this collector in the 2004-2005 time period and I had previously handled many of them from 1995-2000 when they comprised the Orange County collection. The Morgan collection was sold by Stack’s in January 2007. It was a complete set of CC half eagles and eagles and all had been purchased from me between 1990 and 1995. All of the coins were in older PCGS and NGC holders and many were good upgrade candidates based on today’s more liberal standards.

In this article, the Old West Collection will be abbreviated as OW while the Morgan Collection will be abbreviated as MC.

1870-CC OW: PCGS AU55, sold for $115,000 MC: PCGS EF45, sold for $46,000

The PCGS AU55 example in the Old West collection was the finest known 1870-CC eagle and it shattered all price records for this date. The price realized for the Morgan collection coin was reflective of the fact that most viewers graded the coin AU50. It subsequently upgraded to NGC AU50 and is now for sale on a dealer’s website for $52,500. After these two sales I think we will see continued price appreciation for this rare and important date.

1871-CC OW: PCGS AU55, sold for $25,300 MC: NGC AU55, sold for $25,300

I wasn’t personally crazy about either of these coins. I think we can assume with a good deal of certainty that an average quality AU55 example of this date is worth around $25,000.

1872-CC OW: PCGS AU55, sold for $34,500 MC: NGC AU55, sold for $34,500

I liked both of these coins quite a bit and thought that they both had a chance to upgrade to AU58 (although I don’t think either has…yet). Again, after these two sales I think it’s safe to say that a nice AU55 example of this date is worth around $35,000.

1873-CC OW: PCGS AU50, sold for $32,200 MC: PCGS AU50, sold for $43,700

The 1873-CC in the Old West collection was decent but nothing special. The example in the Morgan collection was clearly nicer and I graded it AU53. It sold to a dealer who currently has it listed on his website (in an NGC AU53 holder) for a reasonable markup ($48,500). It is nice to see that this date is finally getting some recognition for its rarity in AU grades.

1874-CC OW: PCGS AU58, sold for $37,950 MC: NGC AU55, sold for $19,550

The Old West coin is the third finest known 1874-CC eagle and its price realized was very strong. It later appeared in the Goldberg February 2007 sale (still in a PCGS AU58 holder) where it failed to hit its reserve and was bought back by its consignor, a California dealer. The Morgan collection coin also realized a strong price for the grade.

1875-CC OW: PCGS AU53, sold for $32,200 MC: PCGS AU53, sold for $29,325

I personally liked the Morgan collection coin better than the Old West piece. Considering that it brought nearly $3,000 less, I think it was a relatively good value. These two auction appearances confirm my belief that a nice quality AU53 example of this date is worth around $30,000-32,500.

1876-CC OW: PCGS AU58, sold for $39,100 MC: PCGS EF45, sold for $12,650

The Old West coin was superb and I purchased it for a collector. The price realized for the Morgan collection example was strong for an EF45. The coin, incidentally, is now in an NGC AU50 holder. Both of these sales show that there is demand for this date but the coins offered were so far apart in quality that one can not make any good conclusions based on comparing them.

1877-CC OW: PCGS AU53, sold for $27,600 MC: NGC AU55, sold for $27,600

I thought that both of these had the potential to upgrade: the Old West coin to AU55 and the Morgan coin to AU58. I would have to say that the Morgan coin was a much better value given the fact that it was nicer yet it sold for the exact same price.

1878-CC OW: PCGS AU55, sold for $39,100 MC: PCGS AU50, sold for $20,700

This was an instance where I thought the Old West coin sold for a little too much while the Morgan coin went a little cheaply. The Old West piece was clearly nicer than its counterpart but I do not think it was worth nearly $20,000 more.

1879-CC OW: PCGS AU55, sold for $32,200 MC: PCGS AU50, sold for $27,600

Here is an example where if you hadn’t seen both of these coins in person, the prices realized might not make sense. The Old West coin was properly graded but it lacked good overall eye appeal. The Morgan coin was clearly undergraded (it is now in an NGC AU58 holder) and it brought a strong price as a result.

1880-CC OW: NGC MS61, sold for $18,400 MC: NGC AU55, sold for $4,140

Due to the difference in quality between these two coins, the prices realized do not really lend themselves to comparison. The 1880-CC in the Old West collection was extremely nice for the grade and it sold for a very strong price. I’m not certain if the coin ever upgraded to MS62 but even if it didn’t whoever purchased it now owns one of the finest known examples of this date.

1881-CC OW: NGC MS64, sold for $74,750 MC: PCGS MS61, sold for $10,350

These are two of the finest known examples of this date (the Morgan collection coin, which I purchased, is now in an NGC MS62 holder) and their strong prices realized reflect this. I was pretty surprised at just how high the bidding went on the Old West coin. I purchased this exact piece in B+M’s July 2002 sale (in an NGC MS63 holder) for $25,300. It had previously brought $6,600 in the 1982 Eliasberg sale.

1882-CC OW: NGC MS62, sold for $41,400 MC: PCGS AU55, sold for $8,625

Here is another instance when the difference in quality between these two coins makes a comparison irrelevant. The Old West coin, which I purchased, is probably unique in Uncirculated and I thought it was good value, given what other Carson City eagles from this era were selling for in the auction.

1883-CC OW: PCGS AU58, sold for $14,950 MC: NGC AU58, sold for $5,750

I think these results are extremely interesting. Same date, same grade yet the coin in the PCGS holder brought more than two-and-a-half times as much. Why? I think part of the reason is the fact that the PCGS coin was clearly nicer. But I also think part of the reason is that because of the PCGS Set Registry, collectors are looking for certain CC eagles in the highest possible grade at PCGS. I wonder if in the future we will continue to see such price disparity based on the brand of the holder?

1884-CC OW: PCGS MS62, sold for $46,000 MC: NGC AU58, sold for $6,038

Reasonably big difference in quality, extremely big difference in price. The Old West coin is probably the second or third finest known 1884-CC eagle and it sold for a price commensurate with its rarity. This was a record price for the date and I’m certain that in the future, other Uncirculated 1884-CC eagles will be compared with this Old West coin.

1890-CC OW: PCGS MS62, sold for $10,350 MC: NGC MS62, sold for $6,900

These were both very nice for the grade but at least two bidders clearly thought the Old West coin was an upgrade. Here’s a bit of sobering thought for those of you who like to calculate risk: if the coin grades MS63, its worth $12,000-13,000. If it stays in an MS62 holder its worth $5,500. What you have here, then, is $5,000 worth of downside risk with around $2,000 of upside. This is why coin dealers are not CFO’s of large companies.

1891-CC OW: PCGS MS63, sold for $7,188 MC: NGC MS64, sold for $17,250

The Old West coin was solid for the grade and it had the added benefit of a Pittman pedigree. With average quality MS63 examples of this date readily available in the $4500-5500 range, perhaps the buyer of this coin thought it might upgrade. Clearly, the buyer of the Morgan collection coin did see his new 1891-CC as a strong candidate to eventually reside in an MS65 holder. I thought it had a pretty decent shot as well but was not willing to gamble $17,250 to find out.

1892-CC OW: PCGS MS63, sold for $41,400 MC: NGC MS61, sold for $4,370

The 1892-CC eagle in the Old West collection was remarkable and its price clearly reflected that a number of bidders thought it would grade MS64 if resubmitted. The Morgan coin was decent for the grade but nothing special. Here is clear evidence, in case you needed more, that collectors of Carson City eagles will pay strong prices for high quality coins which are exceptional for the date and grade.

1893-CC OW: PCGS MS61, sold for $16,100 MC: NGC MS60, sold for $8,625

I bought both of these coins. Take a guess which one I consider to be the better deal. I find it interesting that of the eight or nine known Uncirculated examples of this date that two of them sold within a few months of each other. This is further evidence of how important these two sales were for collectors of Carson City gold.

I’m not certain that we will see comparable collections of Carson City half eagles and eagles sold again for a long period of time. If you are a collector of Carson City gold, 2006 and early 2007 have been important (and expensive!) times for your set.

The Single Greatest Indian Head Eagle in Existence

There has never been an Indian Head eagle which has shattered the $1 million dollar mark. This is soon going to change, though, when Heritage sells Dr. Steven Duckor’s incredible 1920-S eagle in their March 2007 National Money Show auction in Charlotte, North Carolina. I fully expect this coin to break all previous price records for an example of this design type. If you were to ask five experts in 20th century US gold coinage the question “what is the single greatest Indian Head eagle in existence,” I’m reasonably certain that the answer would be unanimous: The Duckor 1920-S eagle which has been graded MS67 by PCGS.

This coin is very important for at least two significant reasons: it is very possibly the finest known Indian Head eagle of any date (it was graded MS67 by PCGS many years ago and by today’s standards I would think it had a pretty decent shot to upgrade to MS68) AND it just so happens to be the rarest date in the series in Gem Uncirculated. I can not think of many other situations in which a finest known single coin also happens to be a rarity as well.

In 2005 I first had the pleasure of viewing this coin in person. I was doing some other business with Steve Duckor and he asked me if I’d like to view his coin collection. There were a lot of memorable coins in his sets but I think the one that stuck with me most was the 1920-S Eagle. And I could tell that this coin held a special place in Steve’s heart as well.

This coin was first sold by dealer Jerry Cohen to another dealer, Dennis Forgue, in 1968 for $3,500. It was placed in the collection of Dr. William Blackwell until the Stack’s June 1979 auction where Dr. Steven Duckor purchased it for $85,000; an enormous amount of money at the time for an Indian Head eagle. After remaining in Dr. Duckor’s collection for over a quarter of a century, it will be sold on March 16, 2007 as Lot 2134 in the Heritage auction.

I can personally think of at least three or four serious collectors who are going to really want to add the Duckor 1920-S eagle to their collection. This should create a level of competitive bidding that leads to a world-record price for the date and for the entire denomination.

Given the fact that the outstanding MS66 1920-S eagle in the Kutasi collection was recently sold by Heritage for a record price of $402,500, I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Duckor coin is going to bring considerable more; maybe even three times as much.

I’m personally very excited to witness the sale of this coin in Charlotte on the night of March 16th. Its going to be a great piece of Numismatic Drama and yet another feather in the cap of Dr. Steve Duckor; a personal friend and one of the greatest collectors I have ever known.

Undervalued Areas in the Rare Coin Market

While I don’t claim to have a crystal ball, I usually have a pretty good sense of which areas in the field of rare gold coin collecting are poised to show an increase in interest in the coming years. Here are some areas which I feel are undervalued and which have the potential of becoming the Next Big Thing. 1. Classic Head Gold Coinage: If you are a regular reader of my blogs you know that I am a big fan of Classic Head gold coinage. I think the design of these coins is attractive and I like the fact that they neatly bridge the gap between “old gold” and the more familiar Liberty Head design that was employed for nearly 70 years.

One reason why Classic Head gold has not become very actively collected by specialists is the lack of a good Winter-esque style guide book. What I find very interesting about this series (in addition to the fact that it is short-lived and thus very completable) is that there are a number of fascinating varieties in both the quarter eagle and half eagle series. Many of these are touched on in the Breen Encyclopedia while others are described in detail and illustrated in the Bass catalogs. While I’m not a variety guy, per se, I do find a number of the varieties in these series very interesting and if someone were to better catalog and illustrate them clearly showing the differences, I think they would become very widely collected.

Another reason I like Classic Head gold is the interesting branch mint issues contained in both the quarter eagle and half eagle series. Clearly I am not a lone voice in the wilderness when it comes to issues such as the 1839-O quarter eagle or the 1838-C and 1838-D half eagles as these have seen considerable price increases in the last few years. Despite these increases, I still think the branch mint Classic Head gold issues are comparatively undervalued and if the Classic Head series becomes more widely collected by date then these issues will show even further appreciation in the coming years.

You need to remember that many of these varieties are quite rare to begin with and this is not a collecting specialty which could support more than a few serious collectors at any given time. I think the area which is likely to see the greatest number of specialists is the Capped Bust Large Eagle half eagles struck between 1795 and 1807; particularly the issues produced between 1800 and 1807. Dates like the 1804 and 1806, of which there are seven and six different varieties, respectively, are not prohibitively expensive on a per-coin basis as long as the collector is content to purchase nice EF and AU coins.

2. High Grade New Orleans Eagles: I base this prediction on how well coins like this sell for me when I list them on my website. I am referring primarily to common date New Orleans eagles (such as the 1901-O, 1903-O, 1904-O and 1906-O) in MS63 and higher grades.

Here’s why I love a coin like the 1901-O eagle in MS63. The current PCGS population for this date in this grade is forty-two with just nine graded better. Trends is currently $3,500 and when I have these available I generally ask in the area of $3,250-3,350. Now look at a common date like the 1901-S which has a PCGS population of 3,920 with 3,209 graded better. These routinely sell for $1,100 in MS63 and you can literally buy them by the wheelbarrowfull at any major show. In my opinion, the 1901-O at a three times premium above the 1901-S is great value.

A coin like a 1901-O eagle in MS63 traded for around $2,500 a year or two ago so the market has clearly started to rise. But at the same point in time, a 1901-S traded for around $1,250. This means that the premium factor has only risen from 2x to 3x. It would not surprise me if in the next year or two, the premium factor grew to at least 4x and possibly as high as 5x.

3. Civil War gold: It’s just a matter of time before someone starts promoting date runs of Civil War gold issues. It’s been done before and it seems like such a no-brainer promotion I’m sure it will be done again.

The only problem with doing a comprehensive promotion of Civil War era gold is, of course, finding enough quantity to make such a promotion worthwhile. As an example, the gold dollars from 1861 to 1865 seem easy enough to promote but just try to find a quantity of 1863’s in any grade. You can forget promoting quarter eagles from this era due to the extreme rarity of the 1863 and the 1864 issues - and the 1865 Three Dollar is rare enough to put the kibosh on this series. I guess if I had the answer I would be running the promotion myself right now. But I can just see that beautiful full-color brochure with the battlefield scene and the 1862 three dollar gold piece imposed on top of it….

1841 Quarter Eagle Observations

I recently studied an 1841 quarter eagle graded PR53 by PCGS which was offered by Heritage in their February 2007 Long Beach auction. Numismatic tradition states that around 20 1841 quarter eagles were struck, all as Proofs. Numismatic tradition, in this case, is wrong.

The 1841 in the Heritage sale was unquestionably produced as a business strike. I’ve seen at least three other examples which I believe were produced for circulation as well.

Here are a few observations about the 1841 quarter eagle which I’d like to share:

1. Given the fact that around fifteen 1841 quarter eagles exist, let’s assume that the actual original mintage figure is more like 25-30 instead of the presumed 20 (I actually think it could be as high as 50). Then, let’s look at one other important fact: the mintage figure for Proof quarter eagles during the 1840’s is, with the exception of the 1841, less than ten coins per year. In some cases (i.e., 1847 and 1849) Proofs from this decade do not even exist. Why is the Proof mintage figure so high? Especially given the fact there is nothing “special” about this year; nothing, that is, which would cause so many Proofs to be struck.

2. Proof gold coins from the 1840’s look like Proofs, even when they are well-circulated. The 1841 in the Heritage sale did not look remotely like a Proof. It had absolutely no reflectiveness in the protected areas, the rims were not squared and the overall “look” of the coins did not suggest that it had been made for presentation purposes.

3. There are 1841 quarter eagles that exist in grades as low as Very Good to Fine. No other Proof gold coins from the 1840’s are known in very low grades so why should 1841 “Proofs” be found with this degree of circulation?

4. Despite having its own nickname (the “Little Princess”) the 1841 quarter eagle is a coin whose status as a Classic American Rarity seems to have diminished in recent years. My guess is that this is because specialists feel that since it is considered to be a “Proof-only” issue it isn’t necessarily an integral member of a business strike set of Liberty Head quarter eagles. It is curious that the 1854-S quarter eagle, an issue that was traditionally valued at lower levels than the 1841, is now regarded as a “better” coin and is bringing higher prices.

David Akers, who I regard to be the most knowledgeable expert of all-time on the subject of United States gold coinage has stated in his seminal work on quarter eagles that he believes that the 1841 quarter eagle was struck in two formats: as Proofs and as circulation strikes. However, in their 2006 book “Encyclopedia of United States Gold Coins,” Jeff Garrett and Ron Guth state that “only Proof quarter eagles were produced in 1841; circulated examples are said to exist, but these are actually mishandled Proofs that entered circulation.” I am clearly in the Akers camp in this debate and the 1841 quarter eagle I just viewed at Long Beach makes me feel more strongly than ever that business strike 1841 quarter eagles DO exist.