Importance of Timing When Assembling a Collection

When assembling a collection, timing is truly everything. This goes for when you are in the process of adding to the collection or when you are disassembling it. In this article, I’ll explain how timing will, no doubt, affect you in the assembling of your set. I can’t count the number of times I have said to collectors that their holdings need to be looked at as a long-term endeavor. One of the truly amazing phenomenons of the Internet-driven coin market is that a new generation of collectors believes it is possible to very quickly assemble a set and then, just as quickly, consign it to an auction company and make a nice profit. In a rising coin market this has (sometimes) proven to be possible. But if and when the coin market corrects, I believe that you will see a return to the “old values” of assembling a collection that worked so well for the great collectors of past generations.

If you are assembling a world-class collection, you have to look at your collection as a series of opportunities. By this I mean that you have to be prepared to buy important coins for your set when the right opportunities arise. One of these is what I call the “generational turn.”

A generational turn occurs when an older collector decides that it is time to sell and he puts his coins on the market. This may occur when the collector is alive or his estate may make the decision for him. In a situation like this, it may mean that a number of coins that have not been available for a generation or more are finally up for sale.

For a younger collector, a generational turn may represent the only chance to acquire certain high grade, rare coins. As an example, for many collectors of United States gold coins, the sale of the Harry Bass collection in a series of four auctions from 1999 to 2001 enabled them to acquire a number of very rare coins that had been off the market since the 1960’s or 1970’s. In the ensuing half decade since the conclusion of the Bass sales, many of the coins offered in those auctions have not reappeared. Clearly, these went to serious collectors who were smart enough to know that this generational turn would be their only chance to acquire specific rare issues in high grades.

One reason that it is very important to stay on top of the developments in your field of specialization is to know, in advance, when a generational turn might occur. If you are, for example, very plugged into the demimonde of St. Gaudens double eagle collectors, you might know that Collector X is going to be selling his set of coins in the next six months and that there are at least three or four important rarities in this set that you would really like to own. Having this lead time to prepare yourself financially and mentally to acquire these coins is far preferable to simply picking up a copy of Coin World one day and seeing that this collector’s set is suddenly going to be sold at auction by Heritage or ANR.

Looking at the concept of the generational turn from the other point of view, as an older collector it is always important to pick a time in the market when there are younger, newer collectors clamoring for your fresh material. Now, obviously, no one knows exactly the right time to sell. But common sense dictates that it makes a lot more sense to sell when your area of specialization is “hot” than when no one really cares.

If you go back and study the coin market in the past few decades there are numerous points in time when a seller clearly made a bad decision to liquidate his holdings. An example that comes to mind is the Chestatee collection of Dahlonega gold that was sold in the 1999 ANA auction. There had already been two huge collections of Dahlonega gold sold at auction earlier that year (in the FUN and February Long Beach sales) and by the time the Chestatee coins became available, the market was clearly saturated. As a result, these coins sold very cheaply and the Dahlonega market entered a downward spiral that took a number of years to recover from.

If you have the luxury of deciding on an orderly schedule of dispersal for your collection, choose a point in time when your collection will be appreciated by a younger generation of specialists.

As a buyer, keep your powder dry and make certain that you are ready to be aggressive at the points in time when you are accorded unusual opportunities to acquire rare and/or exceptional items.

Four 20th Century Gold Rarities and the Stories Behind Them

All four of the 20th century American gold types that were produced contain key issues that are very popular with collectors. This article takes a look at four of these: the 1911-D quarter eagle, the 1909-O half eagle, the 1920-S eagle and the 1921 double eagle. What do these four coins have in common? More than you would think. With the exception of the 1921 double eagle, each has a comparatively low mintage figure and is recognized as a key issue within its respective series. Each is very popular with collectors. And all four are relative “late discoveries” among collectors that have only recently been recognized as rarities within their series and have shown price appreciation befitting this status.

I. 1911-D Quarter Eagle

The Indian Head quarter eagle has proven to be one of the more popular of the four 20th century United States gold types. It is a short-lived set with just fifteen coins. Unlike its three counterparts, this series does not contain any impossible rarities and it can be completed in nice Uncirculated grades by a collector of reasonably average means. Because of this series brief duration and its relative ease of completion, it was a natural to be promoted on a large scale. And, unlike with other 20th century coinage, Indian Head quarter eagles have always been available in large enough quantities to make promotion readily feasible.

As soon as the first coin dealer realized that Indian Head quarter eagles were a great set to promote, the status of the 1911-D rose dramatically. Here was a coin that was an obvious candidate to be the superstar of the set. It had the lowest mintage figure by a huge margin and it was a legitimately scarce coin. As the Indian Head quarter eagle series became more and more popular, price levels for the 1911-D ran amuck. Today, many observers (including myself) feel that this is now among the more overvalued United States gold coins.

It is interesting to look at the numbers of 1911-D quarter eagles graded by PCGS and price levels. As an example, PCGS and NGC have graded over 1,200 1911-D quarter eagles in MS63 and MS64. Even assuming that a number of these are resubmissions, that is still somewhere in the area of 600-800 coins. According to the most recent Coin Dealer Newsletter, dealer bids for this date are $20,500 and $29,000, respectively, in MS63 and MS64. By the most optimistic standards, let’s say that there are currently 200 or so collectors and investors assembling high grade sets of Indian Head quarter eagles. That still means that the supply of these coins is generally more than enough to meet the demand. The bottom line is that while I think this coin has a great story behind it, it is wildly overvalued in the middle Uncirculated grades. (In MS65, the 1911-D is a truly rare coin and I think its current value of $80,000++ is legitimate). When and if the firms that are actively promoting Indian Head quarter eagles wind-down their marketing efforts, I can see MS63 and MS64 examples of this date losing a significant amount of their value.

II. 1909-O Half Eagle

The 1909-O has long been recognized as a key issue in the Indian Head half eagle series but its true scarcity in Uncirculated grades was not always recognized. This is true, of course, with most dates in this series. Before grading became as specialized as it is today, collectors who focused on Indian Head half eagles were unlikely to know—or care—if a coin was an MS63 or an MS64 or an MS65. The rarity of these coins in Gem really only became apparent once modern grading standards were applied to United States gold issues in the late 1970’s - early 1980’s.

The 1909-O has the lowest mintage figure of any Indian Head half eagle. In fact, it is one of just three issues in the series with an original mintage of less than 100,000 coins. There were 34,200 struck and this issue was clearly used in commerce as most of the survivors are in the EF40 to AU55 grade range. What is very surprising about this issue is that almost no examples were saved as souvenirs by local collectors or wealthy New Orleans residents who clearly must have found the 1909-O half eagle to be an interesting coin; after all, it was the first example of this denomination to be struck at New Orleans since 1894 and it was the first with the novel new incuse Indian Head design.

By the 1960’s, it was clear that this date was very rare in Choice to Gem Uncirculated and looking at auctions from this era, one sees some comparatively high prices realized for examples of the 1909-O half eagle that were described as Choice. But prices for this date really came into their own in the mid to late 1970’s when high grade rarities reached price levels that went unequalled for many years.

Today, specialists know that the 1909-O is rare in properly graded MS62, very rare in MS63 and extremely rare in MS64. The population figures for this issue appear to be very inflated as witnessed by the current PCGS population of 21 coins in MS64 (in my opinion, it is unlikely that there are more than four or five accurately graded MS64 examples known). There are two or three Gems known including the Eliasberg coin which is now in a PCGS MS66 holder and which is, without a doubt, the single most valuable business strike Indian Head half eagle in existence.

Is the 1909-O half eagle overvalued? I think the current prices that this issue fetches in AU55 to MS61 seem too strong, given the relative availability of such coins and the fact that most are dramatically overgraded. In MS62 and higher I don’t think this coin is overvalued. My reasoning behind this is the fact that the 1909-O is the only Indian Head half eagle that has multiple levels of demand. It is considered desirable by New Orleans gold collectors, one-year type coin specialists and Indian Head half eagle aficionados. These multiple levels of demand ensure that the 1909-O is likely to continue to be one of the key 20th century American gold coins.

III. 1920-S Eagle

Between 1916 and 1929, only one eagle was produced at the San Francisco mint: the 1920-S. This is a coin which is far rarer than its original mintage figure of 126,500 would suggest. It appears that virtually all of these coins were melted and that almost none of the 1920-S eagles that were struck were released into circulation. I can’t recall having seen more than three or four that showed signs of actual circulation (and these were, in all probability, pocket pieces that had been carried as souvenirs).

There are a number of features that are unusual about the 1920-S, besides the fact that it is the only San Francisco eagle of this design struck in over a decade. Most Indian Head eagles are exceptionally well struck and show very strong fine detail at the centers. The 1920-S is the most poorly produced Indian Head eagle of any date. It is the only issue that typically shows pronounced weakness of strike. Many examples are weak on the hair below the word LIBERTY and on the corresponding portion of the reverse. In addition to this, the luster is often inferior and the overall level of eye appeal is inferior to that seen on other San Francisco eagles of this type. I presume that the reason for this is the fact that the people making these coins at the San Francisco mint hadn’t had much practice on any eagles, given the fact that none had been struck since 1916.

The price history of the 1920-S is interesting as well. This was a relatively expensive coin in the 1940’s and 1950’s but its price flattened in the 1960’s and early 1970’s. It became popular again the 1970’s and early 1980’s but when the Indian Head eagle series dropped in popularity in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, the 1920-S flattened. In fact, prices for this date in almost all grades were remarkably stagnant throughout the 1990’s. It has only been during the past few years that prices have risen, especially in higher grades. As an example, in Heritage’s July 2006 auction, a high end PCGS MS64 example sold for a remarkable $172,500. As a mater of comparison, the last two PCGS MS64 1920-S eagles offered by Heritage brought $41,400 and $55,200, respectively, when sold at auction in 2002 and 1999.

Today, the 1920-S is recognized as the third rarest issue in the series, trailing only the 1907 Rolled Edge and the 1933. Interestingly, the 1920-S has proven to be a far scarcer coin than the 1930-S; a date with which it was historically paired. But third-party grading has shown that the 1920-S is actually not the rarest San Francisco eagle in Gem Uncirculated. This honor belongs to the 1913-S. And another date in the series, the 1911-D, is comparable in rarity to the 1920-S in Gem, if not even a bit rarer.

IV. 1921 Double Eagle

The fourth and final coin in our discussion of 20th century gold issues is the rarest, although it is not necessarily the best known. Although some experts might disagree, I would rank the 1921 as the rarest Philadelphia double eagle of this design. Unlike its closest competitor the 1932, the 1921 is most often seen in the AU55 to MS61 range and it is extremely rare in MS64 and above.

The true rarity of this date was not known to the early generation of St. Gaudens double eagle collectors. Back in the day, the issues that were most actively sought were the mintmarked coins from the mid-1920’s. But hundreds of these were eventually located in Europe and in all grades below MS64; most of these coins are now only moderately scarce. Unlike dates such as the 1924-D, 1925-S and 1926-S, the 1921 was not exported to Europe. The “story behind the story” of the 1921 is very interesting and the true rarity of this date can be better understood when this is discussed.

Two things conspired to make the 1921 double eagle a rare coin. The first was that most of the mint’s production capacity and efforts in 1921 went towards silver dollars. Millions of Morgan Dollars were produced after a near-two decade hiatus and these were followed by the new Peace Dollar which was a complex, hard to produce High Relief design. Secondly, the United States economy in 1921 was going through a post-World War One slump which would continue until the middle part of the decade. Few gold coins were circulating in the early 1920’s and there was not a great deal of demand for double eagles in 1921. As a result, many of the 528,500 1921 double eagles that were struck were melted.

In addition to being rare because of mass meltings, this issue is rare because of the way it was produced. The 1921 is among the worst struck St. Gaudens double eagles and it is generally seen with poor luster. This shoddy level of workmanship meant that most examples were of inferior quality before they were produced. Coupled with the fact that the survivors tend to show heavy marks from rough handling and copious hairlines from numismatic abuse, the 1921 is among the rarest dates of this type in the higher Uncirculated grades.

It is likely that somewhere in the area of 60-80 examples are known. The PCGS and NGC population figures are both inflated with the AU58 and MS62 numbers showing the greatest number of resubmissions due to attempts to garner upgrades. The 1921 becomes an extremely rare coin in MS63 and above. There are probably no more than four to six known that grade MS63 or higher.

In 2005, I had the honor of handling the finest known 1921 double eagle. At Heritage’s Morse sale, my ex-partner and I purchased a PCGS MS66 example for $1,092,500. At the same sale, an MS65 example sold for $805,000 while and MS64 realized $402,500. Today, all three of these coins have been placed in prominent collections where they will, no doubt, remain for many years.

If any other high grade 1921 double eagles become available for sale, I would expect to see them sell for record prices. This is one 20th century issue whose rarity can not be disputed and it seems highly unlikely that any hoard or accumulations of this date are going to appear at any time in the future.

Misc. Reader Questions

was recently asked a few interesting questions by a reader and thought it might be interesting to answer them. In no order, here they are: Q: In auction catalog descriptions, are there certain giveaways that lead you to think the cataloger doesn’t like the coin?

A: A good auction cataloger is like a good journalist: impartial and able to state facts without imposing personal prejudices. That said, catalogers are only human and it is possible to “read between the lines” and figure out subtle hints that catalogers don’t like the coins they are describing. I’ve always thought a good clue was when the cataloger talks about every possible thing except the coin itself. In other words, he mentions the coin’s rarity, its history and its contextual significance but “forgets” to mention what the coin itself looks like. There are other little clues like describing a circulated coin as “bright” or referring to coloration as “unusual” or “smoky” or “hazy.” I’d also beware of instances when a readily visible mark isn’t mentioned. If a mark is mentioned, it generally isn’t that bad. If it is “overlooked” than it is often so bad that the cataloger can’t find a way to nicely mention it.

Q: Why are different gold coins different colors?

A: There are actually two different answers to this question: the classic, “old school” answer and the “today’s market” answer. In the classic sense, a gold coin is a certain color because of the alloy used in its production. As an example, early Charlotte and Dahlonega gold often used Appalachian gold which had a considerable amount of silver included in the alloy. As a result, these coins often display a green-gold color. San Francisco coins used gold from California which had a high copper content which gave the gold a reddish or rose-gold tint. Unfortunately, few circulated gold coins remain that have not been dipped or which have not been recolored. Today’s color gradations are often more a result of the chemical that was used in recoloring the surfaces. As an example, many gold coins are seen with an unnatural tangerine-orange hue which is the result of a certain type of chemical used to recolor the surfaces.

Q: Why are NGC gold coin populations so much higher than PCGS populations?

A: I think there are two answers. The first and more politically correct is that NGC simply grades more rare date gold coins than PCGS does. Many of the major submitters of these coins send the majority of their coins to NGC and, thus, more have been graded. This is especially true with Liberty Head issues. For 20th century gold coinage, PCGS has actually graded a fairly comparable number of coins and, in the case of certain generic issues, they have actually graded more than NGC. I notice a huge difference between populations on rare dates in AU58. I think the reason for this is the combination of the fact that NGC is looser with this grade than PCGS and PCGS has done a better job, especially of late, in cleaning up their population report.

Do you have any interesting questions? Please send me an email and, if possible, I will answer them at some point in the future.

Heritage August Signature Sale Preview

I recently returned from Dallas where I was viewing auction lots for Heritage’s August Signature Sale. Heritage never seems to run out of coins to sell and, as usual, their catalogs were massive. In fact, I am thinking of charging them for a chiropractic visit as a result of a throbbing shoulder courtesy of having to schlep the catalogs through DFW and Portland airports in my now-deformed briefcase. Now that I’m back home, I’ve had a chance to analyze the Heritage sales and thought I’d share my thoughts about the coins that are being sold.

For the most part, I was more impressed with the non-gold in the sale than the gold. One item that really caught my eye was Lot 5055, which is an amazing NGC MS67 1862 Indian Cent die cap. For the most part, I am not a really big fan of errors but this was the error to end all errors. A die cap is caused when a planchet gets stuck in the die and the planchet is repeatedly struck. As a result, this die cap shows amazing detail on the coin itself and a stunning fan-shaped pattern with no less than eight distinct tabs. If I am not mistaken, this piece was in an ANR sale around three years ago but, for whatever reason, it really caught my attention this time. I would not be surprised to see this spectacular piece break the $50,000 mark.

Another coin that was pretty remarkable was Lot 5264, a 1906-S half dollar graded MS69 (!) by NGC. This is the only business strike barber half dollar ever graded this high by either service and the coin was awfully nice. Did NGC get carried away a little with the grade? Probably. Does a finer business strike Barber half dollar exist? Possibly. But, man, was this a seriously lovely coin!

Enough of this non-gold chit chat. You are reading this blog to know my thoughts on the gold coins in the sale. My overall impression was that the quality was spotty. There were some great single coins here and there and a nifty collection of Liberty Head double eagles but I did not find this to be one of Heritage’s more impressive offerings of gold.

It was interesting to compare the coins in old holders (i.e., the ones that were “fresh”) versus the ones that were “maxed out.” An example of a lovely fresh coin was Lot 5417, a PCGS MS61 1796 No Stars quarter eagle. Unlike most of the examples of this celebrated date that have been offered in recent years, this piece wasn’t stripped of its original color and had a lot of luster below its attractive color. But just so you don’t think that I automatically go ga-ga over any coin in an old green label PCGS holder, the next lot, a PCGS AU58 1796 With Stars quarter eagle showed an old cleaning on its obverse and, even by today’s inflated standards, was not really high end for the grade.

I have to mention the NGC PR67 1879 Flowing Hair Stella because I can’t resist writing the following: it was one Helluva Stella. If I were in the market for a killer example of this type, I’d buy this coin. It was superb.

I was fairly underwhelmed by the rest of the early gold and much of the branch mint issues although a few treasures did poke their little plastic heads up from time to time. You have to begin to wonder, are there any original Charlotte and Dahlonega coins left? Have the coin doctors gotten to every last piece? It was interesting looking at the high grade Philadelphia coins, which had original surfaces and comparing them to their doctored branch mint counterparts. One coin I did love was Lot 5507, an 1856-C half eagle in PCGS MS63. It was easily the finest example of this rare date that I have ever seen.

And, believe it or not, there were some Proof gold coins in the sale with original hazy surfaces (!) I was beginning to wonder if any of these had survived the dipping trays and chemistry sets of America’s coin dealers… If you’d like to know what a piece of original Proof gold looks like, study Lots 5514 and 5516.

For me, the most interesting deal in the sale was the Wyoming Collection of Liberty Head double eagles. I had sold some of the coins in this set to the owner and was excited when I heard his collection was for sale.

The star attraction of the collection is the 1861 Paquet reverse double eagle (Lot 5623). While not really widely known outside of the gold collecting community, this is actually the second rarest regular issue American gold coin, trailing only the 1870-S Three Dollar. Only two examples are known and it will be very interesting to see what this piece will bring. I predict it will bring between $1.5 and $2 million.

The sale includes a full run of New Orleans double eagles including the very rare 1854-O and 1856-O. Both are graded AU50 by PCGS and it will be interesting to see if prices for these two coins continue the amazing upwards march that they have shown for the past five years.

I will be attending the Heritage sale on August 13th and August 14th and would be pleased to provide you with auction representation service. If you are interested, please contact me immediately.

Pricing MS61 Gold Coins

Coin World Trends lists prices for every Uncirculated grade between MS60 and MS65 with the exception of MS61. So, how does one go about figuring a price for a coin graded MS61 by PCGS or NGC? This depends on a numbers of factors: what is the price differential between MS60 and MS62? How rare is the coin in MS61 and in the grades above this? How strong a level of demand is there for the specific date in this grade? And, of course, you must consider that old favorite: what does the coin look like? In other words, is the fact that it’s in an MS61 holder make any difference regarding its appearance versus if it were graded MS60?

The obvious solution to pricing an MS61 would be to take the MS60 and MS62 Trends values for a coin, add them together and then divide this number in half. Let’s pick a coin and try this and see what happens.

I am going to randomly select an 1857-C half eagle in MS61 for this experiment. The Trends value of this coin is $10,000 in MS60 and $20,000 in MS62. Add these two numbers together and you get $30,000, divide this in half and you get $15,000. Assuming that this coin is worth around 70% of Trends, our formula states that this coin should have a retail value of around $10,500.

Now let’s go on the Heritage Auction Archives and see what the last few MS61 examples of this date have sold for at auction. Between January 1998 and the present date, this firm has sold three PCGS MS61 examples for $7,130, $7,188 and $8,912 respectively as well as an NGC example for $8,970. So much for our MS61 value formula and its premise that an MS61 1857-C half eagle should be worth $10,500.

So what is this coin worth? Well, in MS60 Trends is $10,000. Assuming an MS60 is worth 70% of Trends (and I think this figure is high, given the assumption that most MS60 Charlotte half eagles are not very nice coins from the standpoint of appearance), we can state that this coin is worth around $7,000 in MS60. Even though Trends jumps significantly in MS62, there are enough coins graded in MS60 and MS61 to satisfy the admittedly limited demand for this date. My feeling is that an MS61 example of this particular coin should only command a premium of 10-15%, giving it a fair retail value of around $7,700-8,050. And the market seems to agree with this, using the four action appearances cited above as reference points.

Now that we know this formula is a dud, what is a good way to determine the value of an MS61 rare date gold coin? As I mentioned above, there are a lot of factors at hand.

What if a coin has very little difference in rarity between an MS60 and an MS61? An example of this would be an 1887-S double eagle. Now this is a fairly scarce and fairly popular date in a very widely collected series. But it shows a current PCGS population of 39 coins in MS60 and 126 in MS61. The current Trends value for this date is $1,500 in MS60 and I would be a seller in the $1,100-1,300 range. I don’t think an MS61 would command much of a premium at all; possibly a few hundred dollars at most.

What’s an example where a one point increase from MS60 to MS61 could make a significant price increase? Let’s look at a rare coin in a popular series.

The 1856-O eagle is a truly rare coin in Uncirculated grades. PCGS has a population of just one coin in MS60 with none better while NGC shows a population of three in MS60 and none above this. There is no Trends value listed for this issue in MS60 while CDN Quarterly Bid is $13,500. I would be a very willing buyer of the PCGS MS60 example of this date for $15,000; possibly even more if I thought it were nice for the grade. But what would this issue be worth in MS61? Assuming that the coin was solid for the grade, I think it would be a $30,000+ item. Why the huge price increase between MS60 and MS61? It would be a finest known example of a truly rare coin in a series in which there are enthusiastic, deep-pocketed buyers.

I have suggested to the Editor of Coin World Trends that they eliminate the Fine-12 column for gold coins (a grade that many issues do not even exist in) and, instead, add values for the more popular and more often seen MS61 grade. But until this is actually done, the collector will have to use some creativity in determining what an MS61 is actually worth.

2006 Denver Summer ANA Show Preview

If you only attend one coin show per year, the summer ANA is probably the biggest bang for your buck. Every major dealer in the United States attends this show as well as leading dealers from Europe, Japan and Latin America. The fact that this year’s edition is in the great city of Denver (which is generally a nice spot to be in mid-August) makes the 2006 convention a must-attend for the collector. If you have just 48 hours to “do the Denver ANA,” what is the best way to do this? My advice would be to arrive in Denver on the evening of Tuesday, August 15. Get a good night sleep because you are going to be a busy guy if you take the Winter Tour of the ANA bourse on Wednesday.

The show opens to the public on the morning of Wednesday, August 16th at 10 a.m. I’d suggest having a good breakfast and using the early morning to plan a strategy. You might want to go on the ANA’s website (www.money.org) and look at the map of the convention floor and the list of dealer’s tables. You’ll want to highlight your favorite dealer’s location but you should also consider visiting tables that contain coins that you don’t collect but which are of interest. As an example, I always like to visit the British dealers’ tables and look at their stock, even though I don’t collect these coins.

When the doors open, I’d recommend promptly going to your favorite dealer’s tables and asking what coins, if any, are available in your field of collecting. If you see something that is really interesting, I’d recommend making a quick decision. At a major show like ANA, you can’t really expect a dealer to put a coin on hold for you for more than an hour or two; especially not at the beginning of the show. Assuming you have a fixed amount to spend at the show, don’t be nervous if you spend your whole budget at the first table you go to; we can assume you went to the “best dealer” first and he is most likely to have exactly what you want.

I’d suggest you spend another three or four hours scanning tables and meeting dealers before breaking for lunch. Generally speaking, convention center food is awful and leaving the bourse for an hour to eat a good meal will prove to be an excellent strategy.

When you return to the convention (remember to save your badge!) I’d suggest you head over to the auction viewing lot area and spending a few hours looking at coins. Even if you aren’t going to bid in an auction, ANA auctions are a wonderful place to see exceptional coins and to study them. Just remember not to hog the lots as you may be sharing them with fellow viewers who are going to bid on them. One thing I would suggest you do is makes notes about the coins you like and the ones you don’t and then monitor them to see what they sell for later in the week.

I would then suggest finishing the day with another two or three hour promenade around the bourse floor. I’d recommend leaving around 6 p.m. (the show closes at 7 p.m.), heading back to your hotel and capping the night off with a good dinner in downtown Denver.

On Thursday the show opens to the public at 9 a.m. It’s a good idea to get there a bit after this as many dealers aren’t really up and running until 9:30 or even 10. I’d suggest spending the morning hitting the dealers you didn’t see yesterday and returning to the dealers you like. Ask to see any of the new purchases that they have ready for sale or ask them if any interesting coins are back from grading at PCGS and NGC and if these are available.

What if you haven’t purchased anything yet and you are starting to panic? At this point in time, an impulsive or forced purchase is just about the worse decision you can make. While it is likely that you will have already found something to buy, if you don’t spend your money at the ANA, it’s not a crime.

There is likely to be an auction session during the day or in the evening and it is interesting to attend, if only to see how the dynamic of live auctions work. You are not likely to see much in the way of compelling drama unless you have the good fortune to attend the sale of a major collection.

If at all possible, try and attend one of the lectures that the ANA schedules throughout the show. In the past, there have been numerous interesting subjects and many of the speakers are world-class experts.

Another thing I’d suggest you do at the show is look at the competitive exhibits. At last year’s ANA in San Francisco I was amazed at the quality of these exhibits and found myself spending time absorbing them nearly every day.

Assuming that you have a few hours left, I’d complete the day with another go-round the bourse floor and, perhaps, a final purchase or two.

The most important thing to realize about the ANA show is that it’s a remarkable opportunity for the beginning or expert collector to see coins he won’t be able to see anywhere else, make potentially valuable contacts and, most importantly, to come away with knowledge that will increase his ability and comfort level. It really is the Super Bowl of Numismatics and if you have a chance to attend this year, please don’t forget to stop by tables 523/525 and say “hi.”

2006 Summer Baltimore Show Recap

There are three Baltimore coin shows held each year. It is a general consensus that, of the three, the summer edition is, by far, the least active. This year’s summer Baltimore show held true to form and, was for the most part, sparsely attended and void of much activity. To be honest, the only reason I went to this show was the fact that I was very low on inventory and hoped to buy a few new pieces. From this standpoint, I was not unhappy with the show. I attended it for only a day and a half and didn’t have a table or anything to sell.

Here are some observations from the show:

As I stated in my recent newsletter, many dealers are using this current lull in the market as an opportunity to recharge their batteries. Many of us have worked virtually non-stop for the past two to three years and a slow period lasting a few weeks is not a bad thing.

As usual, there was a conspicuous lack of interesting, fresh material in most dealers’ inventories. I looked at just about every dealer’s inventory at the show and was amazed at just how few nice coins there are available. That said, I was able to buy a few really interesting new coins which are, shameless plug, listed in my current inventory with descriptions and images.

My gut feeling is that the next few weeks will continue to be slow but that things will pick up steam at the ANA and the pre-show which occurs right before it. It will be very interesting to see how the escalating tension in the Middle East will affect the economy and the coin market. With oil prices soaring and the stock market getting pummeled, will gold and silver be strong or will they be dragged down as well? The next few weeks are going to be very revealing, to say the least.

While I was at the show, I was able to view the lots in the forthcoming ANR auction. There are some very interesting gold coins in this sale including the Old West collection of Carson City half eagles and eagles, a superb run of Territorial gold and a large selection of Charlotte and Dahlonega coinage of all denominations. I will be going to Dallas early next week to view lots for their August auctions. I urge you, if you would like me to represent you in these sales, please contact me as early as possible.

I am always looking for suggestions for blog topics (it can be hard to come up with three or four interesting topics every week…) and welcome your input.

Grey Area Gold Coins

What do you call a gold coin that is too scarce to be regarded as a generic but is not rare enough to be called a rare date? I have always called these grey area gold coins “unusual dates” and was recently asked by a collector if they are a) good deals and b) good investments. Yes and no.

Let’s use the $10 Liberty Head series as our guide and let’s use the 1901-S eagle as our baseline. The 1901-S is the most common date in this series with a total population of nearly 13,000 graded at PCGS. This coin has a June 2006 Trends value of $500 in AU50, $575 in MS60 and $650 in MS62.

Now let’s randomly choose two “unusual date” $10 Libs. and compare populations and prices.

First, we’ll look at the 1856. This is a No Motto coin that is considered to be relatively common but its total population of 160 graded at PCGS is about 1/80th the number of 1901-S eagles graded. Trends on this coin is $600 in AU50 and $1,100 in AU55 (we won’t compare its price in MS60 to the 1901-S due to a huge difference in rarity between the two dates).

At a $100 premium in AU50, the 1856 seems to be a fantastic deal. And it is. It has a population of just 35 coins in this grade with 74 better at PCGS. But here’s the rub. There are not many collectors of $10 Libs. by date and the collectors who do want an 1856 probably are looking for a coin that’s at least an AU58 to MS61. So the 1856 is essentially an outcast that is unloved by the generic market and unwanted by the rarities market. Hence, its extreme lack of demand and its low price.

Let’s now look at another date, the 1895-S. I’ve always regarded the San Francisco eagles from the 1890’s to be the poster children for the Lost Cause of Unusual Date Gold. PCGS has only recorded 221 in all grades with just seventeen of these better than AU58. Trends for this date is $1,500 in AU58 and $2,500 in MS60. In MS60, this is a date with a PCGS population of just four with a scant nine graded higher. At $2,500 it has to be a total rip, especially with a common date 1901-S valued at $575. Right?

Absolutely. It’s a total rip. In fact, it’s such a fantastic rip that I’ll buy exactly none for my inventory in the next year. Not because I can’t find such a coin; I’m probably going to be offered one or two in the coming few months. No, I’m passing on this coin because I won’t be able to sell it. There’s just nobody that wants a coin like this with the possible exception of a telemarketer who may resell it to an unsuspecting investor. Except the problem is that this telemarketer will want to pay $1,500 for the coin, he’ll take three months to pay and when I get his check it will probably bounce.

Gold coins are expensive and the Liberty Head series go on and on for decade after decade. This is why Philadelphia and San Francisco Liberty Head gold aren’t popular. Who wants to collect an expensive series that is seemingly never ending? And, conversely, this is exactly why Carson City, Charlotte and Dahlonega gold are popular. They are short-lived and, with a few exceptions, don’t contain any daunting, ultra-expensive stoppers which make assembling a set out of the range of most collectors.

So, you still don’t believe me and are still convinced that coins like 1856 eagles in AU50 and 1895-S eagles in MS60 are a great value? Go look at auction prices from five or even ten years ago and see how these coins have done versus “common rare date” coins like EF45 Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles or AU55 Carson City double eagles. Coins like the 1856 eagle and the 1895-S eagle have been among the very worst performers in the single all-time greatest price run-up in numismatic history. Not exactly a very compelling endorsement, eh?

St. Gaudens 100th Anniversary

Next year marks the 100th anniversary of the introduction of Augustus St. Gaudens incomparable Indian Head eagle and double eagle designs. Assuming that this is an anniversary that will be met with much fanfare (and accompanying numismatic promotion) how can the savvy collector or investor take advantage of this? In my opinion, it would seem that the most obvious target for a promotion would be the High Relief double eagle. The reasons are obvious: its the first year of issue for the largest gold denomination, it’s a gorgeous design and a popular low mintage coin that, while scarce, can be accumulated in a large enough quantity to promote. This is a great theory except for one flaw: High Reliefs have been actively promoted for the last two or three years and are at historic all-time price highs.

But does this mean that High Reliefs are not a good investment at this point in time? If I were buying a High Relief strictly as an investment, I think I’d look at it as a very short term hold—like maybe a year or so. One of the nice things about these coins is that they tend to have very tight buy/sell spreads and even if your coin does not appreciate much in value, you’ll probably have minimal downside. From a long term standpoint, I’d probably pass on a High Relief and wait until prices come down.

How about the “regular relief” 1907 Saint—do these have a good future from an investment standpoint? I would say that yes, they do. But I wouldn’t mess with them in grades lower than MS65 due to the fact that they are very common. In MS66 I think this variety is a good value and an MS67 is a great addition to your collection if you can find one.

The Indian Head eagles are a very intriguing group of coins. There are three varieties known: the Rolled Edge, The Wire Edge and the No Motto.

The Rolled Edge is, in theory, a regular issue even though only 48 are believed to have been struck. This is one of the most attractive United States gold issues and it is going to cost you over $200,000 for an MS64 example.

A coin that is also attractive but a little less rare is the Wire Edge 1907 eagle. It has an original mintage of just 500. Curiously, this rare coin hasn’t seen much in the way of promotion in the past few years and, unlike its counterpart the 1907 High Relief double eagle, it has remained pretty flat (pun intended…) from a price standpoint. I am a big fan of the Wire Edge $10 in grades from MS63 to MS66 and I think this issue will see a big price increase in the next few years.

What about the more plebian 1907 No Motto eagle—will this issue be promoted and will it see price increases? I would say yes on both accounts. I’m sure you’ll see lower end Uncirculated coins peddled on a mass-market scale. I would stick to examples that grade MS64 and above. I really like this coin in MS66 and MS67 as it is a short-lived two year type and it is an extremely attractive coin in higher grades.

So, getting back to our original question, how can the investor best capitalize on what may be a 100th anniversary craze for the 1907 St. Gaudens eagles and double eagles? The way I see it, there are four ways of reacting:

Go a bit crazy and buy a nice High Relief and a Wire Edge. Even if they don’t show strong short-term appreciation, you’ll still own two very liquid blue chip coins that will be cornerstones of your collection.

React with moderation and buy nice MS64 to MS66 examples of the 1907 “regular issue” eagles and double eagles. Again, you’ll own two neat coins which you’ll enjoy.

Do nothing and grumble about yet another pesky coin promotion.

Decide to beat the crowd to the next promotion: the 100th anniversary of the Bela Lyon Pratt design Indian Head quarter eagle and half eagle. A nice matched set of MS64 or MS65 coins might make a great way to welcome in 2008.