1840 Narrow Mill $5.00 PCGS MS62+ CAC

This numismatically significant issue is the first Liberty Head half eagle to feature the second use of the Liberty Head design. While very common in lower grades, the 1840 (which is found with a Narrow Mill and Broad Mill variety) is scarce in Uncirculated and it becomes genuinely rare in properly graded MS62 and above. This fresh-to-the-market example is amongst the best 1840 half eagles that I have seen in years with exquisite green-gold and orange color atop very choice frosty surfaces which clearly have never been cleaned or brightened. The reverse shows a bold, bisecting crack that begins at the right side of the A in STATES, goes through the eagle and ends at the right side of the V in FIVE. A few wispy lines in the obverse fields narrowly keep this coin from a higher grade but its level of eye appeal is really off the charts and it would make a fantastic No Motto type coin for someone who wants a piece that is truly "special." This is the only 1840 half eagle in MS62 to have been given a "plus" designation by PCGS and it is the nicest example of this date that I have personally seen since the Heritage 3/06: 1853 coin (ex Pittman/Farouk/Green) that sold for $43,125 in an NGC MS65 holder.

1854-C $5.00 PCGS AU50 CAC

Strong mintmark variety. The 1854-C is often seen with a weak or virtually invisible mintmark and examples with sharp mintmarks are very scarce. This issue is downright rare in AU50 and better with original surfaces and color and this coin is one of the few I have seen as such in many years. With the exception of star two on the obverse, the strike is far above average for the date and the surfaces are choice with a good deal of luster seen below a rich overtone of green-gold and amber. Some dirt is visible within the lettering on the reverse which is indicative of this piece's originality. I sold this coin to the former owner in an NGC AU53 holder and he downgraded it to AU50 when he sent it to PCGS for a crossover. I still think the coin is a solid AU53 and it wouldn't even look out of place in a 55 holder. A rare opportunity for the Charlotte half eagle collector to acquire a choice example of this scarce, undervalued issue.

Ex RYK "Dirty Gold" collection.

1869-S $5.00 PCGS EF40 CAC

Despite a comparably high original mintage of 31,000, the 1869-S is a scarce issue in all grades. It fits squarely in the category of "formerly-unpopular-but-suddenly in-favor" as with many P+S issues from the 1850's, 1860's and 1870's. This example is attractive and solid for the grade with nice orange-gold color atop reasonably clean and choice surfaces; the reverse is a full 45 on its own. The last PCGS EF40 example of this issue to sell at auction was Heritage 4/06: 2774 which sold for $2,070. This is pone of just two examples of this date with CAC approval in this grade with just one finer.

From the RYK "Dirty Gold" collection

1871-S $10.00 NGC AU55

Most of the San Francisco eagles produced from 1858 through 1870 are next to impossible to locate in AU50 and higher grades. The 1871-S, while by no means common in this range, is slightly more available. This example shows nice naural golden-orange color and has a considerable amount of natural luster on both the obverse and reverse. What appears to be a planchet defect in the left obverse field near ther third star is actually an interesting die crack which is seen on about a quarter of all the known 1871-S eagles. In this case, it is quite large and this is probably among the final coins struck before the obverse die broke. The 1871-S remains unknown in strict Uncirculated and it is extremely rare in properly graded AU58. The PCGS AU55+ that sold as Heritage 9/11: 4384 brought a very strong $11,500, heralding a new-found level of respect for this date amongst collectors.

1864 $2.50 PCGS EF45 CAC

The three rarest circulation strike Liberty Head quarter eagles, in order, are the 1841, the 1854-S and the 1864. There are probably fewer than ten business strike 1841's and around twelve to fourteen of the 1854-S. The rarity of the 1864 isn't as well known but it doesn't lag the 1841 and the 1854-S by all that much with around twenty or so known in all grades (including the incredible Byron Reed NGC MS67 example which, in my opinion, is the single greatest Liberty Head quarter eagle in existence). Only 2,824 1864 quarter eagles were made and this issue was heavily melted as were all gold coins of the Civil War era. There are exactly three known in Uncirculated and maybe another eight or nine in About Uncirculated. After years of neglect, this issue has gained some popularity and the last three auction appearances for the date (all of which occcured in 2011) saw records of $46,000 for a PCGS AU55, $46,000 for an NGC AU58 and $40,250 for another in NGC AU58. In addition, I was recently offered an NGC AU58 for $49,000 by a knowledgable wholesale dealer. The example I offer for sale here is totally fresh to the market and it is perhaps the only circulated 1864 quarter eagle that I have seen that has original color and surfaces. From the standpoint of detail, this coin resembles an AU50 or even better and there is lovely natural reddish-gold color on both sides. There is a small natural mint-made planchet flaw at star six on the obverse that is not nearly as visible on the actual coin as it is on the image; the rest of the surfaces are very clean with no marks of note. I feel that this date is exceptionally undervalued given its rarity. I recently purchased an 1854-S quarter eagle in PCGS F12 for close to $200,000 and felt it was a very good deal; at one-tenth of the price, a nice EF 1864 just seems too cheap. If you are a serious Civil War gold collector or if you specialize in Liberty Head quarter eagles you are aware of this date's rarity and how hard it is to locate with such good eye appeal.

1843-O Large Date $2.50 NGC AU58

From the standpoint of overall scarcity, the 1843-O Large Date is the second rarest quarter eagle from the New Orleans mint, trailing only the low mintage 1845-O. This variety was long overlooked due to the extreme availability of the common Small Date 1843-O but it has become popular and collectors are now aware of how hard it is to locate high grade examples. This piece show the characteristic broad rims of this variety as well as the significantly doubled mintmark base. The surfaces are covered with deep, natural green-gold color with rich accents of orange-gold. There is a good deal of luster remaining and the strike is better than on many examples with just a hint of weakness on the eagle's right (facing) leg. Uncleaned examples of this variety are not often seen and this would fit nicely into a specialized collection of New Orleans quarter eagles.

1851-O $20.00 NGC EF40

Everyone wants to own at least one double eagle from the New Orleans mint but with prices approaching five figures for a decent-but-not-mindblowing AU example, not everyone can afford one. How about a pleasing, evenly worn EF piece for a shade under four thousand bucks? This problem-free 1851-O has medium russet color and a bit of underlying luster on both sides. There are no major marks and the naked-eye appeal is excellent for the grade. I've seen damaged examples of this date sell in the $2,500-3,000 range which makes this piece seem like the perfect value play for the collector who longs for a Crescent City double eagle.

1838-D $5.00 NGC AU53

The 1838-D isn't the rarest half eagle from this mint (that honor belongs to the 1842-D Large Date) nor is it the most historically significant (take a bow, 1861-D) but it is the most numismatically significant as it is the first issue from this mint and the only half eagle employing the Classic Head design. The 1838-D isn't really that rare from the standpoint of overall number known but most survivors are in lower grades and the few choice examples that exist tend to be in tightly-held private collections. The 1838-D is seldom seen with original color and surfaces and this fresh-to-the-market example (accompanied by an old handwritten manila envelope) has a considerable amount of natural mint luster visible below medium greenish-gold and pale orange splashes. The detail is excellent for the issue with the centers showing nice definition while there are no surface marks of consequence. There is a small obverse rim bump at 11:00 on the obverse where the coin appears to have been dropped onto a hard surface at one time. This issue is always in demand and with very marginal quality EF-ish coins now selling in the $5,000-7,000, this fully AU example makes sense from a value standpoint.

Ex Stack's Bowers 3/12: 7490 where it sold for $9,775; from the Demarete collection.

First Quarter 2012: A Quick Recap

My take on the first quarter of 2012 was if you ask ten different coin dealers how their business was, you'd get ten different answers. "Isn't this always the case," you ask? "Not really," I'd answer, explaining that depending on the business model of the dealer in question, the response you'd get might be vastly different. Confused? Let me explain. As I have written many times in the past, the coin market has become highly bifurcated in the last decade. But just as the market has changed, so has the way(s) of doing business. Ten years ago, you were a "coin dealer." Today, you can be an "online" dealer or a "brick and mortar" dealer; a "classic coin" dealer or a "modern coin" dealer; a "bullion-oriented" dealer or a "rarities-oriented" dealer...the variations are seemingly endless. And with these endless variations comes potential conflicting answers to the "how was your first quarter" question.

To simplify things, if you are a dealer who sells mostly moderns or generic or bullion-related products, your Q1 of 2012 was not very good. Metals prices were mostly trending downwards during this period and prices were weak as a result. If you are an Old School coin dealer with a good following, a good website and a good supply of interesting coins, you probably had a quarter that ranged from very good to excellent. My own experience for the quarter was excellent.

Here are a few observations that I have about the current state of the market.

1. Rarity Is En Vogue: I noticed a subtle change in the rare gold market around two or three years ago. Coins that I formerly couldn't give away were suddenly in demand; not necessarily in overwhelming demand but at least they could be sold. During Q1 of 2012, it was all about rarity.

Let me give you an example. An 1863-S half eagle in nice EF40 has always seemed like a pretty neat coin to me. It certainly has alot going for it: Civil War date of issue, low original mintage figure (17,000), low survival rate (probably no more than 60 or so known), proven rarity in high grades and overall affordability. But until recently, this is a coin that I might have liked conceptually but the reality was that it was a hard sell. Plain and simple.

This has clearly changed. The rare gold market has become more about rarity than at any time I can remember and suddenly a coin doesn't have to have a C or a D on the reverse (or, in some cases, the obverse!) to be popular. Formerly hard-to-sell coins like San Francisco half eagles and eagles from the 1850's and 1860's and Philadelphia issues of the same era aren't necessarily flying off the shelves but they are newly-popular and certainly enough so that I am embracing them and offering them on my website as often as possible.

2. The Littlejohn Effect. If you collect dated gold, you know about the not-so-secret sale of the Littlejohn Estate that was held in San Francisco in February. It contained oodles of interesting, seldom-seen dated gold issues and it was interesting from a number of standpoints. I've already written about this sale and don't want to beat a dead horse but what I think this sale did was convert some former non-believer coin dealers. It's hard to say if they'll be in the rare gold market after they sell their Littlejohn purchases (especially if they don't get the grades they expected or if they learn they paid too much...)

3. Pricing Hits a Wall. I've expressed my dismay before about current pricing guides and how inaccurate they have become. For me, guides like CDN and Coin World Trends have gone from being essential parts of my business to virtual afterthoughts.

Something happened to me at the recent Baltimore show that illustrates my dismay with pricing guides and made me have a "this is crazy, I need to do something about this" moment. I was able to buy a lovely 1864-S eagle in PCGS VF30. If you are not familiar with this issue, it is a major rarity; the second rarest date in the Liberty Head eagle series after the 1875. I paid over $30,000 for it and was thrilled to do so. I based this on the sale of a much inferior VF30 example in the Littlejohn auction for $34,500 as well as some other transactions (auction and private treaty) that have occurred within the last five years.

And yet...when I went to check Trends on the coin, just for grins really as I had already written a check for it, I saw that this date was "valued" at $5,500 in VF20 and $12,500. In a word: stupid! Yes, I understand that the Littlejohn price record was too fresh to have made it into Trends. But I would have paid more than Trends for this date twenty frickin' years ago, let alone today. Grrr.....

4. The Low Hanging Fruit Theory of Coin Dealing: As gold and silver raced up and up the last few years and people fell all over themselves to buy modern coins, I had this thought on more than one occasion: am I an idiot for stubbornly remaining a dealer in "real" coins? I have coin dealer friends making Monopoly money selling modern junque, why not me?

Well, I'm just fine with my no-moderns policy. But many coin firms who formerly sold large numbers of scarce and semi-scarce gold coins remain modern coin or semi-numismatic dealers. What this has done, in turn, is to evaporate the premiums on many coins, especially in areas like MS63 and MS64 St. Gaudens double eagles. This trend was never more clear than it was during Q1 of 2012. And I would expect it to remain so in Q2 and Q3 if not beyond. The larger coin firms will continue to sell the easy-to-understand moderns and semi-numismatic items as long as they can ride this horse.

5. Good Coins Remain Hard to Find: In spite of a few fresh rare gold deals hitting the market during Q1, it remained hard to locate good coins. And for every neat coin like the aforementioned 1864-S eagle that I was able to buy, I could have sold more. Many more, in the case of the 1864-S.

The market is collector-based right now and that's clearly good. But what's not so good is that collectors tend to hold on to their best coins and this means that once something like an 1864-S eagle is sold, you won't see this coin again for years. So we have a classic "be careful what you wish for scenario." The market is strong, coins are being sold to informed buyers and the overall fundamentals are solid. The one glitch in the equation right now is there is an inadequate supply to meet the increased demand. Its something that I have always said would happen.

What do I expect for Q2? If metals prices remain weak, I don't think the market will be all that robust. However, the economy is clearly rebounding and there is more discretionary income available for things like gold coins. I'm not certain that my own business will be quite as good in Q2 as it was during the first quarter but I think the immediate future of the rare date gold market is very good and it is likely to stay good for a while.