Long Beach Show Report Feb. 2009

Even in the best of markets, I go to Long Beach with limited expectations. I love the convenience factor (it’s one of my few sub-two hour flights) but this show has, in my experience, really lost its luster. Keep on reading for my thoughts on the Decline of Long Beach and a recap of the show. I think there are two significant reasons why Long Beach has gone from a great coin show to a so-so one. The first is the high price of the tables. Back when tables were more competitively priced, there were tons of small coin shops, Mom-n-Pop dealers and vest pocket dealers who had their own tables or shared them. This was a great source for fresh coins and it meant that there was a lot of coin trading as items went up the numismatic food chain. Now, these dealers no longer attend and this means that there is very little fresh material.

The other reason that Long Beach has suffered has to do with the draconian California tax laws. I’m not going to address these at length but let’s just say that Baltimore has become a great show in large part because Maryland’s tax laws are not quite as “zealous” as our friends in California.

As I said, I went to Long Beach with low expectations. I actually think the show was a bit better than I would have expected. The crowds were decent and my sales were not bad. I was happy with the limited number of coins that I bought and virtually everyone who I spoke with had a good—if not great—show. I think a lot of a dealer’s success right now has to do with what he deals in and his or her desire to sell older inventory at new levels. Simply put, if you have nice quality collector-oriented coins in your inventory, they sell. If you have a bunch of expensive, esoteric coins or boring widgets in stock, you aren’t selling much. If you have coins in stock that have been sitting around since June and you haven’t adjusted the prices downwards, you aren’t selling anything.

I have already posted descriptions and images of many of my new purchases. Some of the highlights are as follows:

-A superb 1897-O eagle graded MS64 by PCGS -A choice NGC MS63 1839 half eagle -A rare and popular PCGS AU50 1838-C half eagle -A very rare PCGS MS61 1846-O half eagle -An underrated and high end 1846-D Normal Mintmark half eagle graded AU58 by NGC

I still don’t think I have a really accurate handle on the coin market but given the awful state of the economy, I think things are holding up far better than I would have expected. Trust me, I have experienced some truly dreadful coin markets and we aren’t even close to any of these. Every dealer is feeling the effects of the economy and everyone is reducing (or wants to reduce) their inventory. But all things considered I am pleasantly surprised. At least so far...

The Heritage auction contained a boatload of rare date gold and I figured it would be an interesting test of the market. Some of the coins were not especially high end for the grade and there were certain dates that were represented by multiple examples. Given the fact that the traditional bottom-feeder buyers for coins like this are either saddled with large inventories, large debt, large headaches or all three I figured that there would be some very cheap prices. I was proven correct.

Many of the not-so-nice Charlotte and Dahlonega coins in the $5,000 to $10,000 range sold for the lowest prices I can recall in quite a while. There were instances where coins sold for less than half of Trends. But (and this is a BIG but) there is a good reason for this. Buyers of these coins have become sophisticated enough that they will not pay good money for a bad coin. If a coin is in an AU58 holder and it is a bright-n-shiny piece with the eye appeal of an AU50, that’s what it is going to trade for, regardless of the holder. That’s the beauty of knowledge. If you learn what a coin is supposed to look like you do not have to use the grading services as a crutch.

The irony of the sale was that some nice coins got dragged down with the not-so-nice ones. There were some exceptional Charlotte quarter eagles that were pedigreed to important collections such as Dingler, Elrod and Eliasberg and they sold for 15-25% less than what I would have thought. As I had expected, this sale represented a great opportunity for a savvy collector to get a great head start on a world-class Charlotte quarter eagle collection at prices that haven’t been seen since the mid-1990’s.

Not everything in the sale went cheaply. The New Orleans eagles were strong. An 1841-O graded AU55 by PCGS brought $25,300, the Bass 1847-O eagle graded MS64 by PCGS sold for a record-setting $51,750, an NGC MS60 1856-O set a record for this date when it sold for $15,525 and a PCGS EF45 1883-O brought an amazing $29,388 - far and away a record price for this date in this grade.

The affordable, collector quality coins in the auction that were nice did pretty well. There were a number of instances where a solid-for-the grade EF45 or AU50 brought nearly as much (or as much) as not-solid-for the-grade pieces in AU50 or AU53 holders. The market for solid $1,500 to $3,000 Charlotte and Dahlonega gold, in fact, seems much stronger right now than it does for the more expensive coins. The one exception is when the more expensive coins are popular, rare or just plain old spectacular.

Prooflike Gold Coinage: A Look at an Evolving Market

One of the newer promotions in the rare gold coin marketplace are coins that are Prooflike. NGC began designating Prooflike gold a few years ago (PCGS has yet to add this designation) and enough have been graded for a collector to get an appreciation of the relative rarity of these issues. What is a Prooflike gold coin, what is the market for these coins like and what does the future hold for Prooflike gold? Generally speaking, when a pair of new dies is used to strike coins, they are highly polished. The first few hundred examples from this die pair (this number can be significantly less or more, depending on the type of design and the mint that produces the coin) are reflective. This degree of reflectivity can range from subtle to intense. Obviously, the more intense the degree of reflectiveness, the more desirable a coin is.

There are basically two tiers of “Prooflikeness” that gold coin collectors are concerned with. The first is the blanket term of “Prooflike” which means that a coin has a certain degree of reflectiveness on both the obverse and reverse. While there is no absolute standard of what constitutes a Prooflike gold coin (at least in terms of the depth of reflection) it is essential that a true P/L coin be reflective on both sides. A coin that is “deep mirror Prooflike” shows considerably more reflectiveness on both sides than one that is merely Prooflike. It resembles a Proof in appearance and it may have an attractive “black and white” appearance that is the result of contrast between the frosted devices and the mirror-like fields.

There is a very strong market for Prooflike Morgan silver dollars. Collectors began paying premiums for these coins as far back as the 1960’s and, today, deep mirror Prooflike (DMPL) dollars can sell for huge premiums over “normal” frosty or satiny coins. Interestingly, there is not much of a market for Prooflike silver coins above and beyond Morgan dollars.

I think the market for Prooflike dollars is as strong as it is for three significant reasons. The first is that a number of dealers back in the 1960’s and 1970’s did a good job of promoting these coins and getting the market jumpstarted. The second is that there are more Prooflike coins in the Morgan dollars series than in all other silver coins combined. Lots of coins equals the ability to promote these as a collectible. The third reason is the appearance of these coins. A high quality DMPL coin can be extremely attractive and a collector can easily appreciate why he should be paying a premium for such a coin.

The market for Prooflike gold coins remains in its infancy. Is there a possibility that Prooflike gold could become as popular as the market for Prooflike dollars? I think this is a small possibility that this could happen but in small, selective increments.

I feel that the one area of Prooflike gold that is likely to see the most “play” with collectors in the next few years is Liberty Head double eagles. I think this is going to happen for a number of reasons. The first is that Liberty Head double eagles are already popular, so it isn’t a big stretch for a collector to jump from “normal” examples to ones that are Prooflike. The second is that these coins are available enough to be actively traded but they are, at the same time, relatively scarce. The third and probably most important fact is that a high quality DMPL double eagle is extremely impressive from a visual standpoint.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, NGC has been grading Prooflike gold coins for long enough that a few conclusions can be reached.

Taking a look at double eagles, I note that NGC has designated 1,287 $20 Libs as Prooflike. But what is most interesting is the fact that only twenty-eight examples of this series have been designated as DMPL and of these just five have been graded higher than MS62. The conclusion that is most easily reached about DMPL examples is that they are quite scarce and pieces above MS62 are genuinely rare. This is especially true for any date other than the ultra-common 1904.

The current price record for a DMPL gold coin is, as far as I know, the $126,500 that was attained by an NGC MS64* 1866 double eagle that was sold by Heritage in their 2008 ANA auction.

From examining auction prices, it seems that predictable price levels for DMPL $20 Libs are starting to be recognizable. MS61 and MS62 examples of non-1904 dates seem to be bringing in the $2,000-3,000 range. The few MS63 examples that have traded have brought in the $4,000-6,000 range. Coins in MS64 and higher are rare enough that it is hard to establish price levels.

In closing, I have a few personal thoughts about Prooflike gold coinage.

A number of 19th century gold coins are easily found with Prooflike or even deep mirror Prooflike surfaces. The most prominent of these include gold dollars from the 1880’s and three dollar gold pieces from this era. I do not think that collectors should, in most cases, pay a premium for these. The exception would be for a DMPL coin that had really great eye appeal.

Many DMPL gold coins have poor eye appeal due to the fact that the reflectiveness of their surfaces accentuates marks or abrasions. I would be careful paying a large premium for an ugly DMPL coin, even if it is a rare issue.

I mentioned above that I think that Liberty Head double eagles are likely to be the only series that collectors will pay close attention to PL and DMPL issues. My second choice for the series most likely to have some degree of date-by-date popularity would be Liberty Head eagles. The PL and DMPL issues that I would suspect collectors would like most would be the New Orleans coins from the 1890’s.

"I Know What I'm Going to Collect. What's Next?"

So you've made the decision that you are going to collect a specific series. What are the next step(s) that you should take? If you are going to form a serious, high-end collection one of the first things that you need to do is to examine comparable collections. As an example, if you have decided to assemble a set of Liberty Head eagles, it would make sense to know the grades of other sets that have been put together.

When it comes to 19th century gold, some of the old stand-bys are the Norweb, Eliasberg and Bass collections. It is very instructive to compile lists of the coins in these three collections as they pertain to what you are planning to collect yourself. For example, if you have decided to assemble a set of high grade New Orleans half eagles, you can make a spreadhseet of the relavent coins in these three collections.

Luckily, this information is reasonably easy to access. (Thank you, Internet...) On the PCGS website, the Set Registry pages list the "probable" grades of the Eliasberg and Bass gold coins (not to mention another pretty decent set, that found in the Smithsonian). The grades of the coins in the Norweb collection can be found in the three sales of this collection that were conducted by Bowers and Merena back in the mid-1980's.

Knowing what quality coins were owned by a great collection is important informantion for a new collector. As an example, let's sat you are being offered an MS63 example of a specific Liberty Head eagle. If the best piece Bass owned was an MS61 and Eliasberg only had an AU55, then the chances are good that this is a significant coin.

There are exceptions to this rule, however. Let's say that the MS63 Liberty Head eagle mentioned above is from a small hoard that was discovered after Bass or Eliasberg stopped actively buying coins. In this situation, the significance of the Bass and Eliasberg holdings are not as great. An example of this would be an 1894-O eagle in MS63. This date was essentially unknown in Uncirculated when Eliasberg was buying and very few examples better than MS60 were available to Bass. Today, because of hoards found overseas, this issue is scarce but not impossible to find in MS63.

If the series that you are goping to collect has a number of active Set Registry collectors, it is important to study the top sets that are on both the PCGS and NGC websites. Let's say that you are focusing on St. Gaudens Double Eagles. Without being congnizant of the best active sets in the Registries, you won't have a good idea of what grades you'll need to make your set competitive.

But there is much more to assembling a high-quality set than checking out Set Registry information. I'd strongly suggest that before you buy any coins for your new set that you invest a few hundred dollars in books and auction catalogs. There is no more important guide for the new collector than important specialized auction catalogs. I have written articles on which catalogs are important for the gold coin specialist to own and won't be redundant be listing them again; use the search function on my website to look for these.

One other thing you need to decide is just how high-end you want your set to be. If you have deep pockets and lots of patience, you will probably want to purchase coins that are either the finest known or which rate high in the Condition Census. If you are have a more modest budget, you will want to stick with coins that are above-average for the issue but not necessarily in Uncirculated grades. Learning the quality of other specialized sets will give you a good idea what the best grades for each specific issue are.

No Motto Philadelphia Half Eagles and Eagles: A New-Found Appreciation

A few months ago, I decided to start focusing more on No Motto half eagles and eagles from the Philadelphia mint than I had in the past. Formerly, I had sort of pooh-poohed these coins as being “boring” but the more I’ve studied these series, the more I think they may be one of the true Final Frontiers of the rare date gold market. As a buyer, one of my major criteria for making a purchase is the fundamental rarity of a coin. By this, I am referring to the availability of a coin in all grades. Virtually all Charlotte and Dahlonega gold has a good degree of fundamental rarity, meaning that a specific issue is hard to locate in any grade, not just in Gem. This isn’t the case with No Motto Philadelphia half eagles and eagles. Or is it?

The more I began to study these two series, the more I realized that many of the issues that I formerly thought were common in circulated grades were just not as available as I presumed. Let’s say that I decided that I was going to promote Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s in AU grades. If these coins were as available as I had felt, I probably would be able to accumulate fifty or even a hundred coins over the course of a six month period; certainly enough to make the promotion worthwhile.

You can probably guess where this is going. I did make a decision to do this very promotion and after searching for nice, crusty coins in the AU55 to AU58 range I was able to come up with exactly eight pieces. And this is after five months of pretty intensive searching. Given the fact that my per-coin cost basis was in the $1,000 range, I became more and more intrigued. Clearly, my epic promotion wasn’t going to happen. But in the course of planning it, I became smitten by No Motto half eagles and eagles from the Philadelphia mint.

Let me give you a couple of reasons why I think these coins are interesting:

1. There are no true “stoppers.” Virtually every branch mint series has a few issues that are extremely rare and expensive. In the Philadelphia No Motto half eagles from the 1840’s and the 1850’s, there are no impossible coins. In fact, with the exception of a small number of coins (1842 Small Letters half eagle, 1858 eagle) nearly all of the issues can be found in either the very high circulated grades or even in Uncirculated.

2. The per-coin cost basis in these series is far lower than for branch mint issues. If you want to collect Dahlonega half eagles in AU grades, every coin you buy is going to cost at least $3,000-4,000. You can purchase many of the more available Philadelphia half eagles for around $1,000 per coin and many of the eagles are $1,250-1,500 each in very presentable condition.

3. For someone like myself who loves choice, original coins there are a lot more nice Philadelphia half eagles and eagles available than branch mint pieces. Because of the fact that there is a big value spread for the branch mint issues between EF45 and AU55 (or even AU55 and MS61) there is tremendous financial motivation to scrub original coins. Many dealers have made a career out of taking an AU50 Charlotte quarter eagle that they bought for $3,000, processing it, getting the coin into an AU55 or AU58 holder and selling it for $5,000, $6,000 or even more. The financial motivation to destroy a nice, original AU55 Philadelphia half eagle is currently not that great and, ironically, a greater percentage of the coins remain intact.

4. Since very few people currently collect these coins, you have less competition and an easier shot to buy the nice pieces without having to pay nutty money.

So does this blog signal an end to my love affair with branch mint gold issues? Hardly. I still am a strong buyer of all nice Carson City, Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans gold coins (from dollars through double eagles) and will continue to be so as long as I am a professional numismatist. But I’ve become much more appreciative of No Motto Philadelphia half eagles and eagles and you will see more of them appear for sale on my website in the future. Will I write a book on them? Probably not. I will, however, probably write in-depth features in my monthly web articles that discuss these coins on a date-by-date basis.

The New Rules: Coin Buying In 2009

The realities of the new coin market are such that I have refined and revised my buying strategies for 2009 and, most probably, beyond. I think my “dealer strategies” can be easily applied to “collector strategies” and they are useful for most people. My first strategy isn’t so much “new” as it is a refinement of an existing strategy. I have always considered myself to be a fussy, critical buyer with what I believe is one of the better eyes around when it comes to originality. Well now I’m even fussier than before. If a coin isn’t all there, I don’t want to buy it; even if it is a special date that I have a soft spot for.

Let me give you an idea of how this strategy works. At the recent FUN show, I saw two comparably high grade examples of the 1856-O half eagle. This is a scarce issue that I really like and it has always been a good seller for me. I generally would have no problem with owning two (or even three) pieces simultaneously. The first example I saw was an NGC AU58. It was priced fairly but it really wasn’t very nice for the grade with little of its originality intact. This is a coin that I might have bought a few months ago, given that it was fairly priced and really rare in this grade. A few hours later I saw an NGC AU53 example of the same date that was choice and fully original. I bought it without hesitation. In this market, it pays to be a fussy buyer. If I were a collector of New Orleans half eagles, I would personally rather have a choice, original AU53 than a not-so-choice and not-so-original AU58. Even though the holder says that one of the coins is five points “better” than the other, my eyes told me that the lower grade coin was aesthetically superior.

My buying guidelines have always been that I want a coin that is in the top 5-10% for the grade with choice, original surfaces, nice color and good eye appeal. I want the sort of coin that will get a sticker when I send it to CAC. In the new coin market of 2009, I am repeating this to myself every time I look at a coin (be it at auction, in another dealer’s inventory or when a collection is sent to me by a specialist-collector). I’m being ultra-careful not to slacken on my quality standards and neither should you.

Another thing that I am focusing on is a lower price point. Some dealers are still able to sell coins priced at $10,000 and up. I find these pretty hard to sell right now unless they are extremely special. Generally speaking, I’d rather have ten interesting $5,000 coins in stock than one not-as-interesting $50,000 coin.

There are exceptions to this. Obviously, if I want to participate in the early gold market, I’m not going to go very far if I limit myself to $5,000 coins. And I would without a doubt be a buyer of a $25,000, $50,000 or even $100,000 early gold coin if it met the following parameters: really choice, really original, really rare and really saleable. But expensive “product” is an area of the market that has already begun a significant downwards correction and I think such coins could go a lot lower in the coming months.

How does this apply to you? If you are a high-end collector who purchases expensive coins I am certainly not telling you to stop (in fact, I’d be thrilled to sell you all the expensive coins you’d like right now...just call me on the phone to discuss this!). What I am saying is that the expensive coin market has shifted from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. You might be able to buy a coin that was $35,000 a few months ago for $30,000 today; maybe even a hair cheaper. If this is your price point, though, I think it is more important than ever to be hyper-critical about every potential new purchase you contemplate making.

Which brings me to another point: buying the right coins. When the market is on an unstoppable upwards course, you can make sloppy decisions and the greater fool theory will inevitable rescue you. How many collectors made poor buying decisions in 2005 or 2006 and were saved by putting lemons in an auction and having their mistakes become lemonade? This is unlikely to happen in 2009, 2010 and beyond. You want to be really careful with what you buy. Collectors with short attention spans are going to find it hard to get rid of pieces that they lose interest in after a few months because something else has captured their fancy. My suggestion is to buy every coin like you are going to keep it for five or ten years.

Another decision that I am going to try to rigorously adhere to in 2009 involves over-expanding my numismatic horizons. In years past, I dabbled in areas that I really didn’t know that well because they “seemed cool” or I “thought they were good value.” In 2009, I am going to stick with what I know best. That doesn’t mean that I’m going to stop buying bust silver coins or rare date Seated quarters and half dollars. I like these coins and I know these areas of the market well enough not to make dramatic mistakes. But I am definitely establishing a stronger “comfort level” this year and will likely coinslap myself anytime I am tempted to stray from it.

One last strategy I am zealously adhering to seems like a no-brainer but I think it’s important enough to bear repeating. I am going to try very hard to have an inventory that is full of popular “bread and butter” coins like nice 1854-O three dollar gold pieces and 1839-O quarter eagles. These aren’t necessarily the rarest coins but they are very popular and have multiple levels of demand. Liquidity is a key factor for collectors and dealers alike in the New Market.

Are there coins that I haven’t really specialized in the past that I will be buying more of in 2009? I anticipate buying and selling more No Motto Philadelphia half eagles and eagles in the AU55 to MS63 range because I think they are great values. I’ll probably buy more non-New Orleans Type One double eagles because this is an active market and a number of the dates are still undervalued, in my opinion. And I think I’ll start moving back into the Three Dollar gold piece market again because I like these coins at current levels.

2009 FUN Show Report

As I stated in my last Market Report (and you have no doubt read on many other numismatic websites) the 2009 FUN show promised to provide interesting insights into the State of the Coin Market in 2009. What happened and what numistidbits did I glean from my week in Orlando?I decided to arrive a day and a half earlier than usual this year for two reasons. The first was to get out of the awful weather we’ve been having in the Northwest and to get a little Florida sunshine and the second was to give myself a bit more time to get prepared for the show. When I arrive the night before an East Coast show starts it’s hard to face the first day of trading when I’m still on West Coast time and have woken-up at the equivalent of 4 a.m.

I went to the pre-show for little more than a cameo appearance and found it extremely depressing. I hate the FUN and ANA pre-shows because I think they mentally drain dealers. I understand why they exist. Wholesale-oriented firms like these shows as it gives them an opportunity to engage in some serious dealer-to-dealer trading. The problem is that encourages dealers to leave the “real” show early. For one-person operations like myself, the thought of attending a two to three day pre-show and following this up with a four to five day regular show is a bit of Numismatic Hell that I’d rather not subject myself to.

I also made a cameo appearance at the Stack’s sale and noted what seemed to be an inordinate amount of buybacks (i.e., coins not meeting their reserves and going back to their owners). I don’t attribute this to a weakness in the market as much as I do the auction firm not vetting the reserves as well as they should have. There were some great coins in the sale but many of them had been in other auctions within the last year and were reserved for numbers higher (or even much higher) than their last sale. In this market, that dog ain’t gonna hunt...

The show opened to dealers and collectors with early admissions badges on Wednesday. These opening hours were an interesting buyer vs. seller dance. Most dealers seemed unwilling to pull the trigger on any interesting coins but, conversely, there didn’t seem to be much available to buy and the consensus seemed to be “let’s wait until the Heritage auction(s) occur to see exactly how bad the market is.”

On Wednesday night, Heritage sold the Quellar-Lemus collection of Pattern coinage. While I don’t really deal in patterns anymore, I did attend the sale for a few hours mostly for educational purposes. I thought this was an important auction for a few reasons. It was a “fresh” deal, it was a highly specialized collection and it involved very rare coins in a very thinly traded market. The results were extremely impressive. The collection brought at least 20-30% over pre-sale estimates and the bargains that many bidders thought they’d be able to find in pre-sale discussions were, for the most part, non-existent. Something that I found especially interesting was the activity for the extremely rare but very esoteric patterns. There were a number of issues that weren’t especially attractive or historically important but they were R-8 (meaning that an estimated one or two were known) and buyers had to pay record-smashing prices for these. This proved to me that the market is still there when it comes to seemingly irreplaceable coins.

Thursday was the opening day for the public and, at least for me, I found it to be the slowest first day at FUN that I could remember. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the crowds were excellent and collectors were most definitely out in full force. The feeling I got from most of my encounters with collectors and dealers during the early part of Thursday was that their buying was curtailed but not necessarily for the “right” coin.

Something interesting happened to me later that day while I was looking through a dealer’s boxes. I pulled out about six or seven coins to ask for prices. As he was figuring out levels he said to me: “You’re one of the few people all day that has actually pulled out anything numismatic. It seems like all everyone wants to price is cheaper stuff.” This made me reach a conclusion: if this is indeed the case, the current market malaise is tailor-made for collectors who still appreciate rarity.

The Thursday night Heritage Platinum sale was interesting as it contained a mix of coins that ranged from fresh and highly desirable to not-so-fresh and not-so-desirable. For the most part, I’d say the prices and the sell-through rate were about what I expected. Coins that I knew had sold within the last year or so generally brought around 10-20% less this time. Expensive faux-rarities did better than I would have expected (these same coins were very, very hard to sell on the bourse floor). As recently as a few weeks ago, I had wondered if the Platinum Night session was going to be an unmitigated disaster. Because of Heritage’s exceptional Internet presence I’d have to say it was better than I would have imagined although still not the blockbuster extravaganzas of FUN 2006 or FUN 2007.

Friday was my last day at the show. And for some reason, the vibe seemed a lot more upbeat. I sold three expensive coins to collectors and had a few nice wholesale transactions. I left feeling a lot better than I had when I left the show on Wednesday and Thursday.

So what was my overall take on FUN 2009? I’d say that it was bit better than expected. All markets are psychological in nature and as long as the participants in the coin market are relatively upbeat, the market will be OK. Until the economy turns around (and I think we are looking at another year of Recession) people will likely cut back on their coin purchases. But most collectors are unwilling to totally give up their purchases. The bottom line was that at FUN, collectors were active but more selective than I can remember.

What sold and what didn’t sell at the show? For me, interesting coins in the $5,000 and under range were good sellers as was anything with choice, original surfaces. I noticed strong demand for CAC-stickered coins. And I was surprised at the number of people looking for New Orleans gold. Expensive coins were hard to sell. This wasn’t always the case at the auctions but on the bourse floor you literally had to plead with dealers to look at your “big boy” coins. I expect that this will continue for the next few shows as well, if not longer.

Pre-FUN Observations

I think this year's FUN show will reveal alot about the direction of the market for the year. On Wall Street, it's a known fact that if January is strong, the rest of the year is as well. I can't state this with total certainty as far as coins go but my experience is that a strong FUN generally means the rest of the year will be good as well. Early reports from the pre-FUN show (which I am not attending) are interersting. Some dealers clearly "get" the fact that the market isn't as strong as it was and that their coins need to be repriced to sell. Others appear to be in strong denial mode. If you notice minimal changes in your favorite dealer's inventory after this show, you'll quickly figure out if he or she "gets" it or not.

For me, a problem at past FUN shows has been a lack of material. I'm not sure this will be the case this year. I've already bought some pretty outstanding new coins and I have the feeling that buying this year will not be as hard as in the past. Plus there is always the looming specter of $100 milion+ in coins at the auctions.

Someone asked me the other day what the keys will be to a dealer's success (or lack of it) in 2009. I think it boils down to three simple things: ample capitalization, having good clients and having established programs to sell into. Any dealer who is weak in at least two of these three areas is in for a long year.

I'm not totally certain that the rare date gold market is going to be as easy to analyze post-FUN as is, say, the type coin or widget markets. None of the major auctions are especially strong in any of the important areas of dated gold. Early indications appear that nice pre-1834 gold seems to be doing fine, particularly if the coins have been approved by CAC. The Heritage sale contains an important collection of Indian Head eagles so we will, no doubt, get a feel for what gem examples of the rarities in this aerea are worth. But I'm afraid that areas like C+D gold, TYpe One and Two double eagles and Carson City issues won't be as easy to gauge; at least not for the next month or two.

12 Great Values in the Rare Date Gold Market Priced Below $5,000 Part Two: Eagles and Double Eagles

In the first part of this article, I discussed gold dollars, quarter eagles, three dollar gold pieces and half eagles priced below $5,000 that I felt were good values. In the second part, I am going to continue the same format but focus on eagles and double eagles. Given the popularity and high bullion value of these two denominations, you’d think that eagles and double eagles didn’t offer collectors in the $5,000 and under range many good values. This is far from the case. The eagle denomination contains so many exceptional values that I easily could have chosen over a dozen from the Liberty Head type alone. And there are a number of double eagles that are great values as well.

1. 1838 Eagle in VF and EF Grades

If you have a $5,000 and under budget, you won’t have a lot of opportunities to purchase an 1838 eagle. But if you can stretch your budget a bit and you have a chance to acquire a decent-looking example in a third-party holder, I would strongly encourage you to go for it. I absolutely love this issue. It is the first Liberty Head eagle and it has a low mintage figure of just 7,200. I’ve mentioned before that Trends values for this issue are absurdly low. As an example, the current values for an EF40 and EF45 1838 eagle are $2,900 and $4,025, respectively. This date is worth at least double in these grades but I still think it is a good value, given its historic significance and strong collector demand.

2. 1844 Eagle in EF

Since Philadelphia eagles from this era are not avidly collected by date, the 1844 is an issue that does not get a lot of respect. It is actually among the scarcest No Motto eagles. As of December 2008, PCGS had only recorded twenty-seven examples in all grades (including fifteen in EF) while NGC had recorded thirty-eight in all grades (including fourteen in EF). Allowing for resubmissions, I would estimate that there are around a dozen distinct third-party graded EF examples of the 1844 eagle. Heritage shows just three EF’s in their archives sold since 2000 and I have only handled two EF examples in this last decade. This date is still within reach of most collectors, despite its unquestionable rarity. Trends for an EF40 is $3,000 while an EF45 has a suggested value of $4,000. Were this a more popular series, I could easily see an EF 1844 eagle being worth $6,000-8,000.

3. Common Date No Motto Eagles in AU58

Properly graded, cosmetically appealing common date No Motto eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s are far less available than one might assume, given current population figures. Let’s look at a random date—the 1851—as an example. As of December 2008, PCGS had graded a whopping two (!) in AU58 while NGC had graded forty-nine (including fifteen from the S.S. Republic). Now let’s assume that the thirty-four non-shipwreck AU58’s from NGC include a number of resubmissions as well as some coins that are not nice for the grade. This may leave us with as few as ten or so properly graded AU58’s. Trends for an 1851 eagle in this grade is just $2,500. So, I would contend that an 1851 eagle in nice AU58 at anywhere close to $2,500 is a fantastic bargain. The same holds true with other supposedly common dates like the 1847, 1848, 1850 Large Date, 1854, 1855, 1859 and 1860.

4. 1852-O Eagle in EF

If you have a budget of $5,000 and less per coin, you can get a lot of bang for your buck(s) in the area of New Orleans eagles. Many of the scarcer dates from the 1840’s and 1850’s are pricey in About Uncirculated but are very affordable in Extremely Fine. One of my favorite issues is the 1852-O. I rank this as the fifth rarest No Motto eagle from this mint (it is tied with the 1855-O and 1856-O) and there are probably fewer than 100 known from the original mintage of 18,000. The current Trends values for the 1852-O in EF40 and EF45 are $1,100 and $2,500. I’m guessing that you’ll have to pay more than this for nice, properly graded pieces but the fact that you can buy a very presentable example of this legitimately rare date for less $2,000 makes it an exceptional value, in my opinion.

5. 1855-O Eagle in EF

Another No Motto New Orleans eagle that I think offers the collector a lot of value is the 1855-O. This date is similar in overall rarity to the 1852-O. In fact, the mintage is identical with just 18,000 produced. What I like about the 1855-O is that while it is genuinely scarce in EF grades, it is not impossible to find. Looking through my records over the last five years, I have bought and sold six of them in EF (two in EF40 and four in EF45) and I have never sold an EF for more than $3,250. If this is a coin that interests you, I’d suggest that you look for a piece that has nice original color and surfaces. Strike is not an important factor on this date but eye appeal is and I would always pay a premium for a good looking example.

As an FYI, I would add the 1846-O, 1848-O, 1850-O, 1856-O and 1857-O as other No Motto New Orleans eagles in EF that are affordable but quite scarce.

6. Low Grade 1863 or 1864-S Eagles

These are two of the absolutely rarest dates in the entire Liberty Head eagle series. The 1863 has an original mintage of just 1,248 business strikes while the 1864-S has a mintage of 2,500. The 1863 has a Trends value of just $4,500 in VF while the 1864-S has a Trends value of $5,500 in VF. That’s the good news. The bad news is that you are going to have a pretty tough time finding an affordable example of either date. PCGS has graded just five 1863 eagles in VF and lower grades and just six of the 1864-S in this range. But if you are patient and keep the funds available, these coins do exist and they, in theory, should be available. I generally do not like gold coins in grades below EF but I would make an exception for either of these. In fact, I’d even buy an 1863 or an 1864-S that had been lightly cleaned.

7. 1872 Eagle

Here’s another really rare coin that won’t appeal to everyone who reads this article. Some collectors prefer higher grade coins and they are going to spend their $5,000 budget on a coin (or coins) that are Mint State or thereabouts. Others appreciate true rarity and will like coins like the 1872 eagle. This issue has a mintage of just 1,620 business strikes and a surviving population of three dozen or so. Unlike some of the other dates from this era, the 1872 is sometimes seen in higher grades and I know of two or three Uncirculated examples including a PCGS MS64. So what does five grand buy you in regards to this date? Heritage 6/08: 2150, a nice PCGS VF25 in an old green label holder, brought $4,313. If you are patient you should be able to buy a very presentable VF for around the same price.

8. 1915-S Eagle, MS62

A few years ago, there was a large spread in values between many of the rare date Indian Head eagles in MS62 and MS63. The reason for this was simple: there was a significant difference in visual quality between an MS62 and an MS63. Today, this is not really the case and many collectors have a hard time telling the difference between an MS62 and MS63. Because of this fact, the value spread between these two grades has shrunk. On a percentage basis, the greatest difference between these two grades is seen on the 1915-S. In MS62, a nice example is worth $7,000 or so. In MS63, the price jumps to $15,000+. In my opinion, a nice MS62 is a good value, especially if the coin has a CAC sticker.

9. 1854-S Double Eagle in EF

Unless you are a Type One double eagle specialist, you probably are not aware of the fact that the 1854-S is a scarce and much undervalued issue in all grades. What is confusing about this date is its relative availability in the lower Uncirculated grades as a result of a few small groups found in shipwrecks a few years ago. In circulated grades, however, the 1854-S is a really scarce issue, especially with original surfaces. Another important factor about this date is its strong historic significance. It is, of course, the very first double eagle produced at the San Francisco mint and it has strong Gold Rush association as a result. Trends for an EF40 is just $2,800 while an EF45 is $4,000. I believe that an attractive EF example at anything close to these levels is a great value.

10. 1855, 1856, 1857 and 1858 Double Eagles in AU

I have been a big fan of these four dates for many years. They are probably the most common coins that I have discussed so far in this article but “rarity” is a relative term and they are part of the very popular Type One double eagle series. If you look at a coin like an 1855 in AU58 and compare it to an 1851-O or an 1852-O in a similar grade, you’ll be impressed. As of December 2008, PCGS had graded twenty-one in AU58 as well as another fourteen higher. The figures for the 1852-O are thirty in AU58 with a dozen better. According to these numbers, the 1855 is certainly in the same league as the 1852-O. But look at the Trends values: the 1855 is $5,500 in AU58 while the 1852-O is $20,000. Now granted that the 1852-O is more popular and it is a branch mint coin. Is it worth nearly four times more, though? If I were a collector of double eagles, I’d want to put together a nice little date run of these four Philadelphia issues in AU58 while they were still affordable.

11. 1868 Double Eagle in AU

I first learned about the 1868 double eagle back in the 1980’s when you could buy a really nice example for less than $1,000. This is obviously not the case today but the 1868 remains the best value in the entire Type Two double eagle series. This date is reasonably available in EF grades but it becomes scarce in the medium AU range and it is quite rare in Uncirculated. Today, a nice AU55 can be bought for around $5,000. Given the fact that the Type Two double eagle series is currently out of favor, I think the opportunity factor for this date hasn’t been this good in a few years. When Type Two double eagles become popular again (and I can pretty much guarantee you they will...) I can see the price of the 1868 rising appreciably.

12. CAC Approved Slightly Better Date Double Eagles in MS64

The market for slightly better dates Saints is pretty interesting right now. Due to a number of factors, dates that formerly had a Market Premium Factor of 10-20% can be purchased for little or no premium over a common date. When the market for these coins becomes less out of whack, I would expect them to regain much of their old pricing premium. The key to buying these dates is holding out for solid coins for the grade and this is why I think paying a premium for CAC examples makes sense. The dates that I like most in MS64 are the 1907 No Motto, 1908-D, 1909-S, 1910, 1910-D, 1911-S, 1913-D, 1914-D and 1922. Not all of these can be bought for common date levels (and you are going to have to pay a premium for a nice CAC coin) but if you do some basic research you will note that a number of these can be bought at nice discounts relative to their highs in 2007/2008.

This was a hard article to write as I could have easily mentioned another dozen issues that I thought were good value at the sub-$5,000 level. Something that many new collectors do not realize is that interesting gold coins do not necessarily have to be “expensive” and that you do not have to be a rich person to put together a fine collection of U.S. gold.

What's Hot/What's Not: End of 2008 and Beginning of 2009

What a difference a year makes. I can remember sitting down in December 2007 to compile my annual What’s Hot/What’s Not list for 2008 and thinking “every area in the market is so strong right now, what am I going to force myself to list as ‘not hot?” Fast forward to December 2008 and now it seems like I have to pull ideas out of the hat like Numismatic Rabbits to come up with areas that are hot while the “not so hot” areas seems a lot easier to ponder. But perhaps I’m being a little harsh here. Just as in late 2007 where the real truth of the market was not as obvious as it seemed (in retrospect maybe not every single facet of the market was so strong...) perhaps the real truth today is that while some areas of the market do seem poised for major corrections, others will probably hold out better than eternal pessimists like myself might presume.

OK, enough of the prelude. Let’s get to the heart of the matter and discuss the Hot/Not Hot list of 2009.

I. Hot Series in Late 2008/Early 2009

a) Great Coins

My guess is that really great one-of-a-kind, super-duper, unforgettable types of coins will do well in the coming months. Obviously, only a small number of coins qualify as such. What would a few examples of these be? Taking the Heritage 2009 FUN Platinum Night sale as a base, I think examples would include the ex: Garrett 1815 half eagle graded MS64 by NGC (Lot 4062), one of two known 1842-C Small Date half eagles (this one is a PCGS MS62 and is Lot 4069) and the uber-cool NGC PR64 1842 half eagle (lot 4078) that is one of just two known and has a fantastic pedigree that goes back over a century. The market for coins like these is limited but the buyers who are likely to purchase any of these have deep pockets and are probably a bit more Recession-proof than Joe Collector.

b) Solid Collector Coins in Strongly-Collected Markets

To use a non-gold coin series as an example, take a look at the prices that interesting Large Cents have been bringing at auction in the past year. There are three different collector bases for Large Cents (early dates, middle dates and late dates) with very little overlap but similarly zealous enthusiasm. This will be severely tested in 2009 when the Naftzger middle dates, Dan Holmes and March Wells collections all go on the auction block. Will this be a scenario like the Southern Gold Tsunami of 1999-2000 when three major collections flooded the market and effectively killed it or will it foster new collectors and inject even more life into this area of market? I tend to former the later scenario.

To further add to this point, I think the collector-oriented gold coins that are the strongest right now are those in the sub-$10,000 range. The air is a little thin for coins priced above this unless they are very fresh, very choice and very interesting.

c) Type One Double Eagles

This area is strong for two reasons. The first is the good ‘ol double play impact. With any Liberty Head double eagle worth at least $1,000-1,100 in XF grades, this added value and demand for the boring, lower-grade common issues. The second is continued collector demand for higher grade and rare issues. As an example, the key 1854-O and 1856-O remain in great demand and both set record prices in 2008 at auction. I can think of at least six other dates off the top of my head (1854-S, 1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O, 1861-O and 1863) that also set price records in 2008 whether at auction or via private treaty. I believe that demand will remain very strong in 2009 for interesting Type Ones.

II. Not Hot Series in late 2008/early 2009

a) Schlocky Overgraded Coins in Nearly Any Series

Let’s face an unavoidable truth: there are a lot of really junky coins overhanging the coin market right now. If you look on many dealers’ websites (or in their cases at a show like FUN) you are going to see some familiar faces. You know what I mean: coins that have been around for months (or years in some instances) because they are too dark or too bright or have some sort of problem that makes them low-end for the grade. In the past, there were always bottom feeder collectors and dealers who would buy low-end “stuff” at the right price but many of these individuals have been Slapped by the Recession already and are not as active as they were. Until much of this stuff leaves the market (and there are hundreds of millions of dollars worth of coins like this out there right now) expect to see them languish in dealer’s inventories (or go unsold at auction) and drag values down in the published price guides.

b) Unpopular Coins With Questionable Market Premium Factors

If a coin in a largely unpopular series is currently selling for a 10-30% premium because of a low mintage figure or a slightly low PCGS/NGC population, it is likely that it will lose much (or all) of its MPF. Some examples of these coins are a number of the quarter eagles from the 1880’s and 1890’s, certain lower mintage Three Dollar gold pieces from the 1880’s and many of the San Francisco Type Three double eagles from the 1890’s and early 1900’s in grades up to and including MS63.

c) Crappy, Processed Charlotte and Dahlonega Mint Gold As someone who is pretty widely-known as a leading dealer in Charlotte and Dahlonega gold, it pains me to look at a majority of the coins on the market today. Overgraded junque is, I’m afraid, the rule rather than the exception and a considerable amount of said material overhangs the market. Until recently, there were always bottom feeders who bought the nastiest C+D rejects at the right (read: c-h-e-a-p) price but many of these Numismatic Catfish have current cashflow crises to deal with. Personally, I’d like to take the 300-400+ truly vile C+D coins that travel like gypsies from auction to auction and inventory to inventory and melt them. This would allow the nice, original coins (which still have solid collector demand) to regain their place in the sun.

d) Indian Quarter Eagles

Dead as a doorknob. Sleeping with the fishes. Circling the drain. Numismatic Cannon Fodder. Muerto. Did I mention that this series is pretty slow right now?