Three Dollar Gold Pieces From the 1880's

As I have mentioned before, I have long been a fan of the low mintage Three Dollar gold pieces struck during the 1880’s. I like these coins because of their very low original mintage figures and their relative affordability. Even though the Three Dollar gold series is currently showing a slowdown after two or three years of intense activity, these particular issues are still in great demand. Let’s take a quick look at these low mintage Threes from the 1880’s. 1881: This is the rarest of the five issues we are focusing on, from the standpoint of high grade rarity. There were just 500 pieces struck for circulation of which an estimated 100-150 are known today. Unlike many of the other Three Dollar gold pieces from the 1880’s, the 1881 was not saved by contemporary dealers and hoarders and most of the survivors are in the EF40 to AU55 grade range. This issue is nearly always seen with prooflike surfaces but most have poor eye appeal due to the fact that they have been cleaned or dipped. In addition, most have major abrasions in the fields and many show hairlines as well. There are probably no more than two dozen known in Uncirculated and many of these are marginal quality coins that grade MS60 to MS61. A properly graded MS62 is extremely scarce while an MS63 is rare. I know of approximately four or five examples that grade MS64 and just one Gem: a superb MS66 that has been graded by PCGS.

This is an issue that, in my opinion, is worth full Trends, if not more. For a nice AU55, I would expect to pay in the area of $8,000 to $10,000 while an AU58 is worth around $9,000 to $12,000. The Trends values for Uncirculated examples are fairly accurate although I think that a PCGS MS65 might actually bring more than the current Trends listing of $65,000.

1883: A fairly large percentage of the original mintage of 900 examples struck has survived. I would estimate that there are 200-250 pieces known and very few of these grade below AU53 to AU55, suggesting that the 1883 did not readily circulate. This issue is not really all that rare in the lower Uncirclated grades but it becomes rare in MS62 to MS63 and it is very are in MS64 and better. Most 1883’s are prooflike and many show very nice original color, unlike the 1881 which is almost never seen with good eye appeal.

In the last few months, I have sold a number of nice AU 1883 Three Dollar gold pieces in the higher AU grades for under $5,500. I still can’t get over what a great deal this is. Think about it. A United States gold coin with a mintage of fewer than 1,000 business strikes in very presentable condition for such a reasonable price. Here’s another thing to think about when pondering the 1883 (or any of these other dates). A very common date Three Dollar gold piece in AU58 will cost the collector $2,250 or so. For a little more than double this number, he can buy a truly scarce coin like an 1883. Seems like a no-brainer to me…

1884: For many years this date was my “secret sleeper” in the Three Dollar gold series. I would buy every single example I could find and despite being willing to pay more than anyone else for this date I was still not able to buy many. The 1884 is the second rarest collectible date in the series (trailing only the 1877) as far as overall rarity is concerned. There were 1,000 examples struck of which an estimated 100-125 are known today. The majority of these grade MS60 or better, suggesting that the 1884 was a date that did not see much—if any—circulation. This is borne out by the fact that PCGS has graded only two coins lower than AU55.

I believe that the 1884 remains very undervalued. The current issue of Trends shows a value of $5,000 for this date in AU55 as opposed to $4,000 for the 1883 and $4,500 for the 1886. Given the rarity of the 1884 it should be priced at a premium of at least 50% over these two dates. In MS62, the 1884 is accorded a Trends value of $12,000. This is the same as for the 1885 in this grade and just $1,000 more than the 1883 and the 1886. I would suggest that if you are offered an 1884 at anywhere near Trends prices, you should purchase it.

1885: A total of 801 business strikes were produced. The 1885 was saved in much greater quantity than the 1884. An estimated 200-250 pieces are known; giving this date one of the highest survival rate of any 19th century American gold coin produced for circulation. That said, the 1885 is still a tough coin to locate and I have always found examples to be easy sellers when they are in my inventory. The overall eye appeal for this date is probably the best of the five in our discussion and there are some higher grade 1885’s known with superb color and luster.

The 1885 is almost never seen in grades below AU55 to AU58. It is scarce but still obtainable in the lower Uncirculated grades and only moderately rare in MS63 to MS64 (the PCGS and NGC population figures for MS63 and MS64 coins, by the way, are hugely inflated by resubmissions). I estimate there are as many as eight to ten Gems known and the finest I am aware of is a superb PCGS MS67.

1886: The 1886 has the exact same business strike mintage figure as the 1884: 1,000 pieces. The 1886 is less scarce than the 1884 in terms of overall rarity but it is much scarcer in higher grades. In fact, the 1886 is the second rarest of these five low mintage dates in Uncirculated, trailing only the 1881. There are an estimated 150-200 examples known with perhaps as many as 20-30 known in Uncirculated. The 1886 is generally seen with Prooflike surfaces. Many have been cleaned at one time and, for some reason, this date is found with deeper and more intense abrasions on its surfaces than are other Three Dollar gold pieces from this era.

Most 1886 Three Dollar gold pieces are found in the AU50 to MS60 range. This date is quite scarce in MS61 to MS62. It becomes very rare in MS63 and it is extremely rare in MS64. I am aware of just one Gem: a PCGS MS65 which I recently sold and which was earlier in the Richard Jewell collection (it is plated in my book on Three Dollar gold pieces). Current Trends values for this date are very low, in my opinion, and any example that can be bought for 80-100% of Trends is an excellent value, especially in MS60 and higher.

New Orleans Eagles

You my have heard the slogans “brown is the new black” or “50 is the new 40” used in the mass media by some trend-sniffing writer. I’ve sensed a new trend in the area of rare gold coinage and it’s as follows: “New Orleans Eagles are the new New Orleans Double Eagles.” I know…it sounds silly. But give me a chance to prove this and I think you’ll realize it makes sense. In the past few years, New Orleans double eagles have become massively popular and very expensive. In fact, most collectors have been priced out of the market in this series. Think about it. Two New Orleans double eagles, the 1854-O and the 1856-O, are now selling for upwards of $250,000 for very average quality examples. Five other dates, the 1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O, 1861-O and 1879-O sell for upwards of $25,000-30,000 for decent quality pieces. Even such formerly affordable issues as the 1857-O and 1858-O are now selling for $10,000-20,000 in the higher AU grades. Want to buy a nice AU55 example of the 1852-O, the most common date in the series? Be ready to fork over $5,500-6,500.

Clearly, New Orleans double eagles are a series that you can’t collect unless you have a significant coin budget.

So what’s a collector to do who likes big coins but who can’t spend $10,000++ on every single piece he needs for his set?

More and more, I am seeing these collectors turn away from New Orleans double eagles and towards their eagle counterparts; especially the No Motto series produced at this mint between 1841 and 1860.

There’s alot to like about No Motto New Orleans eagles. It’s a reasonably short series with just twenty-one coins needed to complete it. There are no in-your-face stoppers like the 1854-O or 1856-O in the double eagle series but there are enough difficult coins that the decision to build a No Motto New Orleans eagle set will prove both challenging and fun. Best of all, the coins are still a great value.

Let’s look at some numbers which prove what a good value these New Orleans eagles really are. Let’s take the most common New Orleans double eagle, the 1852-O and use this as a “baseline” for the double eagle series.

The 1852-O has a Trends value (as of November 2006) of $4,000 in AU50, $7,500 in AU55 and $12,000 in AU58. The most recent PCGS/NGC population figures for this date show that 112 have been graded in AU50, 114 have been graded in AU53, 113 have been graded in AU55 and 106 have been graded in AU58. This is a grand total of 445 coins in the various AU grades. In addition, there have been 31 graded in Uncirculated.

Now let’s compare this with a date in the eagle series that has similar Trends valuations: the 1856-O. The most recent Trends values for this date are $4,000 in AU50, $7,000 in AU55 and $10,000 in AU58. Then, let’s look at the combined PCGS/NGC population figures for this date. The current numbers are 18 coins in AU50, 22 coins in AU53, 22 in AU55 and 18 in AU58. This is a total of 80 coins in AU. In addition, there have been four coins graded in Uncirculated. (by the way, in my opinion, these figures are vastly inflated by resubmissions).

The 1856-O eagle appears to be around five or six times more scarce than the 1852-O double eagle. This makes sense when one considers that the original mintage for the 1856-O is just 14,500 while the 1852-O has a mintage figure of 190,000.

Similar situations exist all through the New Orleans eagle series. Clearly, these coins are very scarce in higher grades (in this case AU50 and above) and they are a lot less expensive than their double eagle counterparts.

So, to rehash my thesis, here’s the skinny on New Orleans double eagles: they are wonderful coins and they are great to collect. But unless you have budgeted around $1 million dollars, you are not going to be able to assemble a complete set and certainly not a set of high quality coins.

The “next best thing” for the collector who likes big, hefty coins is the eagle denomination. And New Orleans eagles are affordable, demonstrably scarce and clearly a good value in comparison to their double eagle counterparts.

I already sense New Orleans eagles gaining in popularity and would not be surprised if values increase considerably in the coming years.

If this series appeals to you, I would suggest you focus on the key issues first and look for high quality examples of the five or six scarcest issues. If and when this series “takes off,” it is likely that the key issues will be in the greatest demand.

Long Beach Show Summary

Going into Long Beach week, I was reasonably certain there was no way that this was going to be a good show. Unlike past Fall Long Beach conventions, this one was only a month after the year’s largest show (the Denver ANA). Gold had taken a terrible beating in the last month and prices for generics had dropped considerably. And many dealers had real cash flow considerations, having recently spent large amounts of cash at the ANA auctions. The recently concluded Long Beach was not an especially memorable show. But, then again, it seems that the last five or six editions of this once-blazing venue have become non-events. On an overall scale from A to F I would rank this edition of Long Beach as a C+. The good news is that it finished on a somewhat upbeat note. The first day and a half was s-l-o-w. Friday was the best day for me at the show. I sold a number of older coins and finally found a few things of interest to buy.

I hate to sound like a broken record but, as usual, there was not a lot of fresh material around to buy. I beat the bushes and was able to find some pretty interesting stuff. Some of the highlights of my new purchases at the show are as follows:

*A complete set of New Orleans gold dollars in MS61 to MS64 grades *An NGC AU55 US Assay Office $50 Slug *An interesting and varied group of New Orleans gold coinage ranging in price from $1,000 to $7,500 *A group of early half eagles including an 1806 in NGC MS63 and an 1813 in NGC MS62

While nearly every dealer I’ve talked to in the past few days admits the market has slowed down, I sure didn’t see the “blood in the streets” that one might have expected. No one is panic selling (at least yet) and I sure as heck don’t see much interesting material coming on the market. In fact, I had a chance to view the coming attractions for three future sales and saw almost nothing of interest.

So what we now have is a supposedly slow market but one with nothing really interesting for sale. I would suggest this means that the market just might not be as slow as we think. You’ll know that things are really slowing down when, as an example, a nice early gold that was an easy sale in the early part of the year becomes harder to sell (at lower levels than before). I, for one, see no lack of interest in certain key areas of the market.

One really interesting market area right now is Three Dollar gold pieces. Prices have clearly dropped on these coins in the past month, especially for common dates in higher grades. But I still see a strong level of demand for rare dates in all grades and I am still an enthusiastic buyer of good coins in this series. If you are a collector of Threes, I urge you to check out the coins I am offering for sale in the upcoming edition of Coin World. In the last few weeks I have quietly sold a number of pieces from a world-class collection of Threes and I still have some incredible pieces available including a number of Finest Known and Condition Census pieces.

I also invite you to check the inventory listings on my website as I have already listed descriptions and images of many of my new purchases from Long Beach. I’d like to blow my own horn for a second and state for the record that no other coin dealer (at least any I know of) has their new purchases up and described as quickly and efficiently as DWN.

Numismatic Market Correction

I am seeing signs that we have been in the midst of a market correction in numismatics. Not a big correction, but a downturn in prices nonetheless. It is hard to say if this correction will continue for some time or if it is temporary. Looking at the history of the coin market and its continual swings up and down, I would say that the near-future of the market is a pretty tough call to make. (I still contend that the existence of the Internet makes the current coin market a completely different beast than the market that existed in the 1980’s and the early 1990’s.) But for the sake of argument, let’s say that prices are going to drop for awhile and that liquidity is not going to be as great as it has been for the last few years. What are the coins that are most likely to be adversely affected and which are most likely to be “safe?”

To be as simplistic as possible, the coins that do worst in a bad market are the worst coins. By this, I mean coins that are ugly or coins that are not rare or coins that are just plain uninteresting. Having lived through a number of bad markets myself, I can tell you that the last thing I will buy in this sort of market is an ugly coin that I know will sit around for months waiting for someone to buy it.

To be more specific, I think that some of the sort of coins that could be really hard to sell in a bad market include the following:

*Unappealing, scrubbed up examples of just about anything. Unless a coin is very rare or in great demand, coins that have zero originality and poor eye appeal are not going to be selling well.

*Unusual date gold coins. I’ve discussed these sorts of items before. Coins like 1895-S eagles. In a good market, coins like this are hard to sell. In a bad market, forget about it. Unless they are essentially priced as common dates (or at a huge discount relative to Trends), it is extremely hard to sell unusual date gold coins in a bad market.

*Boring coins. Try convincing someone to buy a common date Indian Head half eagle in MS62 when the market is crummy. Believe me, its hard enough when the market is good!

*High grade modern coins. The first people who disappear in a bad market are newbies and speculators; the two groups who buy most high grade modern coins.

*Coins that have been overpromoted. An example of this is Indian Head quarter eagles. These have been promoted now for well over five years. The promotion has been excellent and prices have risen a lot. At this point, one wonders how much more life this promotion has left.

*Overpriced coins. This is the most subjective category on this list and the hardest to accurately predict. I think most people will agree that High Reliefs are overpriced and that a correction is long overdue. But is a coin like a 1795 eagle overpriced? The market levels for this coin are at an all-time high but who wouldn’t want to own an example of this legendary issue?

What are the types of coins that are safest in a bad market? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out my answer: good coins. During really bad coin markets (like in the early 1990’s), really good coins dropped alot in price. People forget that as recently as 2000-2001, it was very hard to sell expensive coins and I can remember great coins like an 1808 Quarter Eagle in NGC MS63 sitting in my inventory for months and months before I could sell it (and only then at a small loss). But when the market does come back, really good coins come roaring back with a vengeance.

I would suggest that the following types of coins are less likely to get clobbered in a bad market:

*Anything with attractive original surfaces. I predict that in the next market cycle, people will pay huge premiums for gold coins that haven’t been stripped-n-dipped.

*Coins dated in the 1790’s. These coins are now well into their third century of existence and it is hard to not get excited by a gold coin that is this old.

*Key dates in popular series, especially if they are relatively affordable. I recently listed an 1847-O half eagle in PCGS AU50 on my website and was amazed that I got nine orders for the coin in less than a week.

*Coins with great historical backgrounds. A coin made during the Civil War or during the Gold Rush has a great story to tell and one that can be easily told.

*Coins with great pedigrees. In a bad market, the faux collectors and pseudo- dealers get pushed out and the people who really love coins get to have their day in the sun again. These people love the history behind their coins and they are willing to pay extra for a coin that has been owned by a great collector like Harry Bass or Louis Eliasberg.

One last piece of advice. Smart, long-term collectors love weakness (real or perceived) in markets. It’s a chance for them to take advantage of unsophisticated collectors (and dealers) who have no staying power and who panic at the first sign of weakness. I regularly talk to good customers of mine who remind me of certain great coins that we were able to acquire in the early part of this decade at very favorable prices because everyone else was scared to buy them.

Value Compression

An interesting recent trend in the rare gold coin market has been what I refer to as “value compression.” In years past, a small jump in a rare gold coin’s grade could mean an enormous jump in value. But the value jumps between certain grades are not nearly as great as they used to be. Why is this? I think the explanation is relatively simple. In the past, there used to be a lot of visual difference between, say, Extremely Fine-40 and Extremely Fine-45. And the difference between an Extremely Fine-40 and an About Uncirculated-50 coin was quite dramatic.

In today’s world, there often is virtually no aesthetic difference between an EF40 and an EF45 and, often times, an EF40 and an AU50 do not show all that much visual difference. As a result of this, the difference in values between the two levels has shrunken considerably. After all, why pay a premium price for something that does not appear to be tangibly “better?”

A perfect example of this is a common date Charlotte or Dahlonega half eagle in EF40 and AU50. In the past, you could expect to pay at least double—possibly even triple—for an AU50 as opposed to an EF40. As an example, if a nice Extremely Fine 1853-C half eagle was worth around $750-1,000 you could expect to pay around $1,500 to $2,000 for a nice quality AU coin.

Today, the value spread between these two grade ranges has compressed considerably. A nice EF 1853-C half eagle is a $2,500 coin while a solid AU is worth $3,250-3,500. What the market has realized is that there is not enough cosmetic difference between these grade levels to justify paying double or even triple for the higher graded coin.

In many cases I agree with this value compression. But I also think this compression of values has overreacted in some cases, leaving the higher grade coins very undervalued.

Let me give you an example. I recently sold a really nice 1853-C half eagle graded AU58 by NGC to a collector for $4,250. I thought I priced the coin a little on the cheap side but I like this collector a lot and wanted to pass onto him what I thought was a great purchase by me. If I owned a decent but nothing special EF45 example of this date, I would be able to sell it for $2,250 to $2,500. In my opinion, a very nice AU58 coin at around double the price of a decent EF45 is an extremely good value.

I can give you other examples of this but don’t want to beat a dead horse. My point is that with the current compression of values in the rare date gold market, there are some surprisingly good values in the AU55 and AU58 grades.

There are still numerous gold coins where a one point upgrade can mean tens of thousands of dollars in price difference. As an example, the price spread between a 1911-D and a 1915-S half eagle (to name just two) in MS64 to MS65 is well over $100,000. Think about that for a second…a measly one point increase can be the difference between, say, a $50,000 and a $150,000 coin. And the scariest part of that statement is that there are only about three people in the world who can actually tell the difference between an MS64 Indian Head half eagle and an MS65 (actually that’s a bit of an exaggeration…although not by much!).

Because of the demonstrable rarity of coins like a 1911-D or 1914-S half eagle in Gem Uncirculated, it is likely that such coins will always have a large premium over the next grade down. But how about for lower grade Uncirculated coins like MS61 and MS62?

My prediction is that we will see values further compress between the MS60 and MS61 and the MS61 and MS62 range very soon. In most cases, there just isn’t enough visual difference between, say, an MS60 1849-C quarter eagle and the same date in MS62 to justify the current Trends price jump from $25,000 (for an MS60) to $60,000 (for an MS62).

We are already seeing price compression in the AU58 to MS62 price range for small coins like gold dollars. As an example, an 1854-D gold dollar jumps from $15,000 in MS60 to just $20,000 in MS62. Why such a small jump? Because, the vast majority of slabbed MS62 examples of this date aren’t all that much better looking than MS60’s or MS61’s. On bigger coins, like eagles and double eagles, where the visual difference between MS60 and MS62 is more pronounced, it is likely that this price compression will not be as great.

Charlotte Gold Coinage

While doing some research for a new article on the State of the Market of Charlotte Gold (which will be posted on my website on either the 5th or the 6th of September), I thought of an interesting question which applies to any buyer of rare date gold coins. What area of the market has been the best investment in the past decade? As those of you who know me realize, I am not a big advocate of rare coins as an investment. But I am enough of a pragmatist to realize that it is important for any person, no matter how much of a true collector he is, to feel that his rare coin purchases are going to appreciate in value over the course of time.

So, I decided to do a little research project, of which the parameters are as follows: A collector had $10,000 to spend on Charlotte gold coinage in 1996. Would he have done better buying a number of cheaper coins or should he have put all of his eggs in one basket and bought a single big-ticket item? To conduct this project, I’ve decided to use the Redbook as my pricing guide (don’t turn up your nose; the Redbook is actually a surprisingly good pricing source—take a look at the list of contributors and see whose input is being used for gold coinage). I’ve also decided that only PCGS/NGC graded coins can be used in the sample, for the sake of ease and consistency.

Hypothetical collector #1 decided that he was going to purchase coins graded EF40 and EF45 in 1996. According to the 1997 edition of the Redbook (which would have been the most current available edition in 1996), common date Charlotte quarter eagles were valued at $900-1,100 in EF40. So let’s use an average price of $1,000 per coin and say that our collector bought 5 coins with an aggregate cost of $5,000.

This collector also decided to purchase some common date Charlotte half eagles. According to the Redbook, these were valued at $1,200-1,500 in EF40. Let’s use an average price of $1,300 and say that our collector bought four coins with an aggregate cost of $5,200. This would have brought the total cost of his holdings to $10,200.

Hypothetical collector #2 decided to purchase one single “big coin” and focused on a common date Charlotte half eagle in MS60. According to the 1997 Redbook, an 1847-C (the most common date of this denomination in higher grades) had a value of $10,000.

Both collectors put their coins away for a decade and in 2006 decided they were ready to sell. Who did better?

According to the 2007 edition of the Redbook, a common date Charlotte quarter eagle has a value of $2,200 in EF40; a figure which is very accurate in today’s market, in my opinion. This makes our collector’s five coins worth an estimated $11,000. An EF40 common date Charlotte half eagle has a value of $2,500. Our collector owns four of these and the quartet is now worth an estimated $10,000. This brings the total value of his $10,000 investment to an estimated $21,000.

(There is, of course, one other factor to consider. The chances are reasonably good that if he purchased his nine coins in 1996 from a reasonably good dealer, at least half of the coins would upgrade in today’s more liberal grading environment. Factoring in another 30% for these upgrades—a number which might actually be conservative—this collector’s holdings are now valued at around $27,000).

The 2007 Redbook states that the value of an 1847-C half eagle in MS60 has risen to $13,000. But, unlike the Redbook’s EF40 valuations which are quite accurate, this figure seems pretty high to me. I think the actual value of an 1847-C half eagle in MS60 is more like $8,000.

Let’s assume that this collector bought a nice MS60 back in 1996 and he gets his coin upgraded to MS61 when he resubmits it to PCGS or NGC. In my opinion, an MS61 1847-C half eagle is worth $8,500-9,500; possibly a little bit more if it is a nice coin for the grade.

So which collector did better from a financial standpoint? Clearly, it was the person who purchased the group of nine EF coins. His investment of $10,000 at least doubled and possibly tripled if he was lucky with his upgrading. The collector who purchased the one MS60 half eagle did very poorly. In fact, his original investment of $10,000 is probably worth less than this today.

I think that a few conclusions can be reached from this somewhat unscientific price study.

1. In the area of branch mint gold, the best performers in the past decade have been the collector-quality issues. By collector quality, I am referring to affordable coins in the VF and EF grade range. These have the strongest level of demand because they are the most affordable examples of these coins.

2. Not all high grade branch mint gold performed poorly in the past decade but off quality pieces (and most branch mint gold graded MS60 is generally on the low end of the eye appeal spectrum) are actually worth less today than they were in 1997.

3. Making a decision to start an EF set of Charlotte or Dahlonega gold coinage is much more difficult in 2006 than it was a decade ago. The reasons for this are fairly simple. Firstly, most of the “real” EF coins are now in AU50 or AU53 holders. Secondly, many of the nice EF coins are currently owned by active collectors who do not wish to sell them, given the fact that they know such coins are very hard to replace.

Current Market Conditions for Carson City Gold

In honor of the season finale of my favorite TV show “Deadwood”, what better topic for a Monday morning than an examination of current market conditions on Al Swearingen’s favorite coins: Carson City gold. If you read my recent analysis of the Old West collection of Carson City half eagles and eagles which I wrote a few weeks ago, you’ll know that the market for high grade examples of these two denominations seems to be just fine. But what about the more pedestrian material that is generally offered and what about the ever-popular double eagle series?

Half Eagles: I’d have to say that the half eagle denomination is still the weakest of the three gold issues produced at this mint. But the market is clearly stronger now for high grade pieces than it was a month ago. Nice Extremely Fine coins from the 1870’s have become extremely hard to locate; probably because most of the “real” EF45 coins (at least by most standards) are now in AU50 to AU53 holders. It is especially frustrating to try and find half eagles from the 1870’s with original color and surfaces. Most of these have been dipped in an attempt to make them appear more lustrous. There are a few dates from the 1870’s that have become just about impossible to find in EF40 to AU50 and these are worth at least 80-90% of Trends (if not more). Send me an email at dwn@ont.com and I will tell you what these dates are.

The dates from the 1880’s are much more available but most of the pieces I see are overgraded, unoriginal and just plain uninteresting. Any Carson City half eagle from this decade in AU50 and above with a good strike and pleasing original color is scarce and a great value at current levels.

The issues from the 1890’s are fairly plentiful right now but most are in the AU55 to MS62 range. It is still possible to find nice coins from this decade and I’d recommend filling these holes now while the coins still exist.

Eagles: The Carson City eagle market is stronger now than at any time since the mid-1990’s. This is due to the fact that at least three or four very serious buyers have entered the market and most of these collectors are just starting their collections. This means that Finest Known or very high end Condition Census pieces will continue to set record prices when they are offered for sale at public auction. But there are still some good values to be had. The dates from the 1870’s are extremely hard to find with original color and surfaces and any piece grading EF40 or better with really good eye appeal is a great seller right now.

The 1880’s issues are beginning to come into their own, especially in higher grades. In Uncirculated grades, these dates are quite scarce but are still very affordable in comparison to the 1870’s issues. My personal feeling is that any Carson City eagle from the 1880’s in MS60 or better that is priced at under $15,000 is very good value. And nice AU coins priced at $7,500 and under seem to be great value.

The 1890’s issues are becoming more and more popular due to the fact that all four of these can be obtained in Uncirculated for reasonable sums. But prices for finest known or very high end Condition Census examples of these dates have really shot up in the past few months as the new collectors of these coins jockey into the position of putting together sets which contain “unimprovable” examples.

Double Eagles: I was very surprised to see the renewed market strength for virtually all Carson City double eagles at the ANA show. I came to the show with a nice group of common dates in AU55 to MS61 grades and all of the coins I had sold quickly and at very strong prices. I tried to buy other coins at the show and was often quoted as much as 85-95% of Trends from other dealers for coins that were nice but were not “upgrade shots.” I’m not certain if someone is quietly doing a small retail promotion of Carson City double eagles right now but the market certainly seems strong to me.

The early 1870’s dates are, as usual, very strong. The AU50 example of the key 1870-CC in the Heritage Platinum night sale brought well north of $300,000 and I have seen a number of 1871-CC, 1872-CC and 1873-CC double eagles in AU55 and above trade for very strong numbers of late. The scarce, low mintage 1878-CC and 1879-CC are also in very strong demand right now.

The common dates from the 1880’s are still affordable and I think any pretty, original Carson City double eagle from this historic era at under $5,000 is tremendous value. The higher grade coins from this era (in this case MS62 and above) are in great demand right now and these often sell for full Trends or even more to knowledgeable collectors.

The same holds true with the dates from the 1890’s. The low mintage key issue from this decade, the 1891-CC, is in stronger demand that at any time I can remember, even though prices have not yet really shot upwards.

The overall market for Carson City gold coinage, regardless of grade, seems very good right now. The lower priced, lower grade coins have a solid following among collectors while the high grade, one-of-a-kind examples are in extremely strong demand. The only area that seems to be really lagging is ugly, overgraded better date pieces in the $10,000-20,000 range. These are hard to sell because most collectors are being advised to stay away from these and to wait for the right piece for their collection.

The ANA That Would Not End

After a few more days at home and having further decompressed from The ANA That Would Not End, I have some further thoughts/observations on the coin market and on the show itself. * I was very surprised to see almost no significant New Orleans gold coins (with the exception of the double eagles in the Heritage Platinum night sale) in any of the auctions or on the bourse floor. I’ve had a number of people call me and express surprise at the paucity of these coins, especially given the fact that my new book on New Orleans gold was just released, ostensibly spurring the market. I think the absence of these coins is due to three reasons. First, many New Orleans gold coins are genuinely scarce in higher grades. Second, the people who own higher grade New Orleans gold appear to be serious collectors who are in no rush to sell. Third, I would guess that at least a few dealers are quietly buying all of the nice higher grade New Orleans gold they can find in anticipation of successful marketing programs based around my new book.

* Early gold remains very much in demand. I usually buy a decent amount of interesting early gold at a show like the ANA and this year I bought just a few pieces. Despite the fact that prices for early gold have risen considerably in the past few years, the demand for nearly any piece (slabbed or raw, nice or ugly) remains very high and shows no signs of immediate cooling. I can’t recall having seen more than a tiny number of Fat Head (1813-1834 issues) gold at the show and most of what I did see was aggressively priced, to say the least. I think this area of the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future but I would not be surprised to see the more common or the less attractive coins start to show weakness in the next year. Any very rare or very nice early gold remains an excellent long-term hold.

* Although I was at my table or scurrying around buying coins most of the time, I did get a chance to look at some of the exhibits. I was sure glad to know that my tax dollars were going towards paying for an armed SWAT team of US Mint Police to guard the gang of 1933 Double Eagles that were on display. An exhibit that I found much more interesting was a small group of rarities from the Smithsonian including an example of the only Liberty Head gold coin that I have never owned or handled: the 1854-S half eagle. The Mint’s specimen (one of either two or three known) is a lovely slider example that would probably grade MS61 to MS62 was it ever to be slabbed by PCGS or NGC. There were also a few amazing Territorial issues including a superb Wass Molitor $50, a very high grade Mormon $20 and a nice group of Clark Gruber issues.

* In addition to my New Orleans gold book, another reference work that was released at the show was John Dannreuther’s work on die varieties of early gold coins. While the topic of this book sounds a bit esoteric, the book is a wonderful source work on early gold with incredible research from Harry Bass’ notes and superb photography. When you look at most coin books, you can always predict that a better version will come along and outdate the work in question. With the Dannreuther book, I think it is safe to say that the final word on the subject has been written and this book will be to early gold as the Crosby book has been to Colonial coinage. I would also expect that the die variety market for early gold will be stimulated and we may finally see rare early gold varieties get the respect that they deserve among well-heeled collectors.

* I did not attend the pre-show(s) this year but every dealer I spoke with told me that they were duds. Having done very well at the last few pre-shows, I was nervous that my decision to punt this year would backfire and prove expensive. It turned out to be the only thing that kept me sane and allowed me to survive The Show That Would Not End. Wouldn’t it be nice if dealers just said “enough!” and decided to limit their ANA Experience to the coin show and one or two of the auctions which occurred immediately prior to the opening of the convention?

* I’m glad I’m not a big player in the generic gold market because you certainly need very large cojones to actively participate in this market. It always seems that support for certain issues mysteriously erodes whenever supplies increase but that when you need a dozen saints in MS65 (as an example) to fill an order supplies are, mysteriously, as tight as a drum. I appreciated the fact that I was able to make some extra money in the generic gold rally that occurred in the months leading up to ANA. I don’t even mind that I had to give some of that money back when levels dropped at the show. But every time the market drops and rises and then drops and rises again I’m glad that I’m a rare gold specialist.

* The initial reaction to my new Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint book was very favorable. If you haven’t already seen a copy of this book, it is the first work I’ve done with color plates and these images, if I don’t mind saying so, are superb. Unlike most books that employ useless black and white plates, these color images are so lifelike that you’ll (almost) be able to learn how to grade just from looking at the pictures. I sold quite a few hundred books at the show and my publisher tells me that the book is literally flying off the shelves. Well, maybe not flying off the shelves but it is selling pretty decently. Seriously, it’s a great book and you should buy a copy or two for your library. Visit www.transline.com for ordering information.

Importance of Good Pedigrees

Now, more than ever, people are beginning to realize the importance of a good pedigree when it comes to collecting coins. And the reason why people are paying big premiums for good pedigrees is surprising. Read on and I’ll give you my take on why well-pedigreed coins are suddenly selling for big bucks. As I have pointed out time after time, most of the coins that I see these days are not very nice. They have generally been scrubbed or conserved and very few are original. Which is exactly why people love coins from the great old collections like Bass, Eliasberg or Norweb.

If you know where a coin has been for the last ten or thirty or even fifty+ years (as is the case with most of the coins from the three aforementioned collections) you can state, at least some of the time, that the coin is original and that it has not been doctored. Thus, the Bass or Norweb or Eliasberg pedigree acts as a sort of semi-official “blessing” that the coin is original.

Now, it is obviously not the case that every coin with a Bass, Norweb or Eliasberg pedigree is automatically “good.” I have seen a number of coins with Bass pedigrees that clearly have had their appearance changed since they were originally sold.

If you are offered a coin from one of these sales, one of the most obvious things you should do is look at the original catalog and compare the coin to the photographic image. This may be a problem as far as the Eliasberg gold coins go since the images in this sale (which was held in 1982) are poor-quality halftones that show little detail. But the quality of the images in the Norweb and Bass catalogs are generally good enough to use for comparative purposes.

There is one “dirty little secret” about Bass pedigreed coins that many collectors do not know. When the coins were originally graded and slabbed by PCGS, they were designated as being from the Harry W. Bass Collection. If a Bass coin was broken out of the holder and regraded it would lose this designation at PCGS. That’s why some Bass coins are designated simply as being from the “Bass Collection.” These second-generation Bass coins are generally not viewed with the same enthusiasm as the coins with the original designation. The same holds true for Bass coins in NGC holders that were upgraded from the original Bass sales.

Certain pedigrees may be well known to specialists within certain collecting categories but have little significance outside of these boundaries. As an example, if you collect New Orleans gold coins you are familiar with the Pinnacle collection and would pay a premium for this pedigree. But if you collect 20th century gold, a pedigree that has greater significance to you might be the Duckor or Morse collections. One of the reasons that collectors value the Bass, Norweb and Eliasberg pedigrees so highly is that these are three of the few collections sold during the modern era that had impressive runs of coins across the board.

In the art world, the issue of pedigree has been very significant for years. Smart new collectors realize that if a painting had been in the collection of a prominent collector, it is generally a “safer” purchase that if it has been bouncing around between dealers or auctions. The same is true with coins. If , for example, a 1908-S double eagle with a Duckor pedigree is available for sale, I would generally feel that this is going to be a nicer coin than one with no prior pedigree.