In January 2020, I published a blog entitled “Appearance Rarity of Dahlonega Half Eagles.” The basic premise of this was that CAC approval of third-party graded US coins has created an important standard which I termed “appearance rarity.” In a nutshell, this concept maintains that CAC approval creates a baseline through which we can establish how rare specific issues are according to their appearance. Finally, a collector would be able to determine whether, say, an 1849-D half eagle was rarer than an 1857-D half eagle, both in terms of overall rarity and rarity within a certain grade or grade range.

I thought this would generate a lot of discussion between collectors. but I was somewhat disappointed that this concept seems to have not caught on. So, I’m going to try again.

Since the beginning of 2020, there have been a significant number of nice Dahlonega half eagles which have entered the coin market courtesy of the Fairmont hoard. In late 2019/early 2020, there were a total of 549 Dahlonega half eagles which had been approved by CAC. Of those, 61 were graded MS60 or finer which works out to 8.28%. The most recent figures show a total of 730 Dahlonega half eagles approved by CAC (an increase of over 30% in just two and a half years!) with 61 in Uncirculated. This works out to 7.71% which is a reasonably significant percentage.

Let’s look at each half eagle from this mint and list the total number approved by CAC; both in circulated and Uncirculated grades.

    Dahlonega Half Eagles Approved by CAC
  


    Date
    Circulated
    Uncirculated
    Total
  

    1838-D
    29
    2
    31
  

    1839-D
    19
    1
    20
  

    1840-D*
    20
    4
    24
  

    1841-D*
    15
    4
    19
  

    1842-D LD
    8
    0
    8
  

    1842-D SD
    42
    1
    43
  

    1843-D*
    41
    3
    44
  

    1844-D
    36
    5
    41
  

    1845-D
    37
    3
    40
  

    1846-D
    20
    2
    22
  

    1846-D/D
    28
    1
    29
  

    1847-D
    20
    2
    22
  

    1848-D*
    20
    2
    22
  

    1849-D
    16
    2
    18
  

    1850-D
    24
    0
    24
  

    1851-D
    30
    2
    32
  

    1852-D
    59
    3
    62
  

    1853-D*
    66
    7
    73
  

    1854-D*#
    50
    4
    54
  

    1855-D*
    23
    0
    23
  

    1856-D
    22
    1
    23
  

    1857-D
    21
    2
    23
  

    1858-D
    25
    1
    26
  

    1859-D
    23
    2
    25
  

    1860-D*
    16
    3
    19
  

    1861-D
    12
    3
    15
  

    TOTAL:
    730
    61
    791
  

    * indicates varieties recognized by PCGS; # indicates the 1854-D Weak D coins are not included
  

When I wrote the first version of this, I made the assumption that the CAC numbers were inflated by approximately 10% due to resubmissions. I believe that this number is lower today as most of the Fairmont coins have gone directly to collectors and have not been resubmitted to CAC.

In early 2020, there were five dates which had no coins with CAC approval; these were the 1842-D Large Date, 1850-D, 1851-D, 1855-D, and 1856-D. Today there are just three as the 1851-D now has two approved by CAC and the 1856-D has one. There were nine dates with just one coin approved by CAC in the original version of this study. Today there are five: 1839-D, 1842-D Small Date, 1846-D/D, 1856-D and 1858-D.

According to CAC numbers, the five scarcest Dahlonega half eagles in terms of availability in all grades are as follows:

1. 1842-D Large Date: 8

2. 1861-D: 15

3. 1849-D: 18

4. 1841-D: 19

4 (tie). 1860-D: 19

According to CAC numbers, the five scarcest Dahlonega half eagles in higher grades (we’ll use AU55 and up for this study) are as follows:

1. 1842-D Large Date: 3

2. 1850-D: 6

3 (tie). 1839-D, 1841-D, 1846-D/D, 1856-D, 1861-D; all with 7

While I agree with the first two dates, I strongly disagree with nearly all of the five dates which are tied for third (this is obviously the fault of the small sample size which CAC approved Dahlonega half eagles represents, even with over 700 coins now in the CAC database).

The 1839-D, 1841-D, 1846-D/D, and the 1856-D are certainly difficult to locate in properly graded AU55 and finer but they are not as rare in this range—in my experience—as dates such as the 1840-D, 1846-D, 1849-D, and 1855-D.

It is an interesting exercise to note which dates saw the greatest increase in total number approved by CAC in the last two years. Viewed by the total numbers which have been added for each date since late 2019/early 2020, the following Dahlonega half eagles stand out:

1. 1853-D, +26 coins

2. 1843-D, +15 coins

3. 1851-D, +14 coins

4. 1846-D/D, +11 coins

4 (tie). 1848-D, +11 coins

The first two dates are no surprise as they are among the most common half eagles from this facility. The 1848-D and the 1851-D are surprising as they are conditionally scarce.

Stack’s Bowers has sold three CAC approved 1848-D half eagles from Fairmont at auction thus far, while they have sold four different Fairmont-sourced 1851-D half eagles. The logical conclusion is that there are a number of CAC approved examples of these two dates remaining to be sold. Given the fact that Stack’s Bowers has tended to sell the best coins first, I would guess that the majority of these CAC approved coins are in lower grades with the exception of “special” higher graded coins which will be placed in curated “pedigree sets.”

The issues which saw the lowest increase in total number approved by CAC in the last two years are as follows:

1. 1860-D, +1 coin (a PCGS/CAC AU58+)

2. 1839-D, +1 coin (a PCGS/CAC AU55)

3. 1842-D Large Date, +2 coins

4 (tie). 1847-D, +2 coins

5. 1846-D, +3 coins

It is hard to draw conclusions from this data. The 1839-D is an early date which has not been impacted thus far by Fairmont and—along with the 1838-D—it is likely to continue as such. The 1842-D Large Date, as we have seen from the data above, is a truly rare issue and one thing I have learned from Fairmont is that dates that I have always believed to be conditionally rare are exactly that. The 1847-D is a date which I have long claimed is an appearance rarity; even before I invented the term (!). The real mystery is the 1860-D. If I were a collector, I would be hesitant to assume that there are no more of these lurking; especially with appearance of the lovely Fairmont/”Hendricks”: 5100 coin—graded AU58+ by PCGS/CAC. That coin brought an astounding $36,000.

I can’t end this blog without a quick discussion of the State of the Market for CAC approved Dahlonega half eagles since the first version of this piece was published two+ years ago.

Prices have skyrocketed for high-end coins with a number of record prices set. Even common dates in common grades such as an 1853-D $5 in PCGS/CAC EF45 have doubled in price, while really significant coins such as the 1860-D Large D $5 in PCGS/CAC AU58 I just mentioned have tripled.

Are these prices sustainable? I’ll revisit this topic again in another two+ years, and we’ll have an answer.

Do you want to collect CAC approved Dahlonega half eagles? DWN is your source for choice and rare Southern gold. For more information contact Doug Winter via email at dwn@ont.com.

HALF EAGLES