Stack’s Bowers held the most recent (fifth? sixth?) installment of the seemingly limitless run of US gold coins which is the Fairmont Hoard on November 15th, 2023. As with the last sale (August 2023 and held during the ANA convention to my endless chagrin), prices were mixed with some coins selling for very strong numbers and others coins selling at discounts in relation to their most recent auction comparable sale and/or the current PCGS Price Guide information.

Here are five random observations about the rare date gold market which are based on prices realized at the auction, as well as my personal observations from the last few months (say, post-ANA to be more concise). Please note that all prices include the 20% buyer’s premium charged by the auctioneer.

1. Dahlonega Half Eagles Are On Fire

The quality of the Dahlonega half eagles in this edition of Fairmont fell short of those seen in earlier sales, but as I’ve written before, a low-end Fairmont coin still wipes the floor with an average quality pre-1933 US gold coin in virtually every dealer’s inventory. There were 14 different Dahlonega half eagles sold ranging in grade from a low of EF40 to a high of AU55. A total of four were approved by CAC with these selling as follows:

    Lot #
    Date / Grade
    Price Realized
    PCGS Price Guide
  


    5004
    1842-D SD, P45
    $5,040
    $4,500
  

    5016
    1847-D, P45
    $5,040
    $5,000
  

    5020
    1849-D, P45
    $5,280
    $5,000
  

    5026
    1852-D, P53
    $6,000
    $6,000
  

*Note 1: The non-CAC D-mint half eagles did just fine, as well

*Note 2: I passed on three nice PCGS/CAC EF45 D-mint fives at the recent Baltimore show at $4,000-4,250 per coin. Shows how smart I am…

***Stack's Bowers Kronen Sale Lot 5026***

Considering that the current PCGS prices were—in my opinion—significantly inflated right before 11/15/2023, I think these are exceptional prices. When one considers that for years, very decent quality (the equivalent of CAC approved or near-CAC quality) Dahlonega fives were available in the $2,500-3,000 range, that era seems done. All Hail the $5,000 common date PCGS/CAC EF45 Dog Mint Five Lib!

2. If it Was Nice or Rare (or better, nice and rare), it Still Sold for Plenty

As I said above, the quality and the depth of this session paled in comparison to some of the earlier Fairmont sales. However, there were still pretty decent individual coins available.

Three quick examples:

a. 1884-CC $10, PCGS/CAC AU58 (Lot 5213): I really liked this coin a lot. It was 100% natural in appearance with lovely deep green-gold color; a PQ example of this conditionally scarce date if ever one deserved this appellation.

I intended to bid $15,000 but I stretched to $16,500 ($19,800 all in). Which still didn’t win the coin as it hit $17,000 ($20,400 all in). This is a record price for this date in this grade. The scary thing is there could easily be at least two or three more comparable-or maybe even better—coins in this deal.

***Lot 5291, 1858-O $20 PCGS AU55 CAC, courtesy of Stack's Bowers***

b. 1858-O $20, PCGS/CAC AU55 (Lot 5291): There might be a nicer AU55 example of this date somewhere, but if there is, I haven’t seen it. (I almost liked the Stack’s Bowers 6/2018: 186 coin as much but that one—somehow—didn’t get stickered by CAC). I was determined to acquire this coin and I thought I’d have to stretch over my intended floor of $35,000. I wound-up stretching a bit and still struck-out on this coin which set a price record for the date and grade.

It was just the second CAC approved 1858-O $20 in AU55 to ever sell at auction, and I actually liked it more than the two Fairmont PCGS/CAC AU58s which had sold for $40,800 and $43,200 in 11/2022 and 8/2022 respectively. It was nice, it was rare, and it sold for plenty…despite the fact that the Type One $20 Lib market is very flat right now.

c. 1879-CC $20, PCGS/CAC AU55 (Lot 5339). All CC double eagles are technically overvalued when it comes right down to it. The 1879-CC is considered a “rare” date within the Carson City $20 series, yet as many as 300-400+ exist. Problem-free AU55 and better coins are genuinely scarce, especially with CAC approval. The current CAC population stands at eight in AU55, five in AU58, and just a single coin (an MS62) finer.

I knew this coin was going to be really tough to buy as there was an outlier APR of $50,400 for a PCGS/CAC AU55 in August, 2022. The only Fairmont example to trade in the last few years in PCGS AU55 brought $26,400 in March 2023; it was non-CAC but pretty nice overall. The coin brought $48,000 with me as the frustrated and somewhat spiteful underbidder.

3. IATCS* (It’s About the Coins, Stupid…)

Lots of very smart collectors (some of them are good DWN clients) have had it with Fairmont. (Said in the whiniest voice(s) imaginable: “But I’m tired of these sales...”(or) “But I want to know the back story of where the coins are from..” (or) “But Stack’s could have a bag full of 18xx-CC double eagles in their back office…”)

Enough already with the kvetching!

Like the lede above says: It’s about the coins, stupid.

You don’t know the back story of the halibut filet on your dinner plate, so is that going to stop you from wolfing it down?

Fairmont is the gift that keeps on giving for collectors of truly unadulterated Liberty Head gold coins.

***1876-S $10.00 PCGS AU55, courtesy of Stack's Bowers***

Case in point: I LOVE 1876-S eagles. Prior to Fairmont, I think I had seen maybe three nice AUs in over 35+ years of searching. Since 2022, Stack’s Bowers has now sold four (55+/55/55/50), and each one has been delightful. I’d like to think the market for a coin of this rarity can absorb these four coins as well as a few more.

Look, here’s the bottom line: these coins will dry up sooner than you think (the truly rare ones that is). And when they are gone, your chance to buy a nice 1876-S $10 will revert to next to-nil. As the old cliché goes, “make hay while the sun is shining.”

4. “Let’s Run the Numbers, Triple R.”

Courtesy of my numbers guru, Richard Radick (big ups, RRR), here’s the sale by the numbers.

    Statistics for Kronen Sale
  


    
Coin
    CAC
    non-CAC
    All Coins
  

    Number
    Median
    Number
    Median
    Number
    Median
  

    $5 NM
    26
    0.96
    29
    0.79
    55
    0.90
  

    $5 WM
    22
    0.86
    44
    0.72
    66

    0.74
  

    $5 Ind.
    4
    0.71
    18
    0.61
    22
    0.64
  

    $5 total
    52
    0.91

    91
    0.73

    143
    0.77
  

    
  

    $10 NM
    18
    0.93
    24
    0.71
    42
    0.80
  

    $10 WM
    28
    0.84
    38
    0.66
    66
    0.72
  

    $10 Ind
    9
    0.80
    12
    0.71
    21
    0.76
  

    $10 Total
    55
    0.85
    74
    0.69
    129
    0.78
  

    
  

    $20 T1
    11
    0.91
    22
    0.66
    33
    0.75
  

    $20 T2
    7
    0.84
    19
    0.74
    26
    0.76
  

    $20 T3
    11
    0.70
    40
    0.67
    51
    0.69
  

    $20 SG
    8
    0.90
    15
    0.72
    21
    0.80
  

    $20 Total
    37
    0.85
    94
    0.77
    131
    0.74
  

    All Coins
    144
    0.86
    256
    0.71
    403
    0.76
  

A few quick takes:

As with the last Fairmont offering (8/2023), the strength of the sale was in the half eagles; especially the Dahlonega and New Orleans issues.
CAC coins in Fairmont sales consistently bring a 10-20% premium over non-CAC coins. This is actually lower than in many auctions and I believe this is due to the fact that there are so many “really nice but just a teeny bit too (choose one or more): cleany/marky/dull/liney for JA” coins. I am still an avid buyer of such coins, especially if they can be bought at significant discounts.
The $20 Lib market is broken. What can be done to fix it? See a future DWN Blog for possible answers.

5. The Negative Impact of Fairmont Appears to be on Indian Head Half Eagles and Eagles

With very few exceptions, the impact of Fairmont on the Liberty Head gold market has been positive. Half eagles have been a stellar performer, with all branch mints showing strong upticks and demand and prices. Eagles have for the most part been benefited by the availability of high-end circulated pieces, although my guess is that rare San Francisco issues probably could stand a moratorium on incoming coins.

My personal observation is that the Indian head gold market has been the most negatively impacted.

Let’s look at the 1911-D $5 in PCGS MS63.

***1911-D $5.00 PCGS MS63, courtesy of Stack's Bowers***

In the 11/2023 Stack’s Bowers sale, a PCGS MS63 example brought $22,800. In March 2019, Stack’s Bowers sold a PCGS/CAC MS63 for $36,000.

And what about the popular 1909-O $5? In the recent SB sale, a nice PCGS MS62 brought $28,800. In 11/2022, the same date in the same grade brought $31,200, while another PCGS MS62 brought $50,400 in the 4/2022 SB auction. This date is clearly trending downwards, and I believe that as more come onto the market, it will drop further in price.