Some Thoughts on Rarity

Having just published a blog about coin rarity based on grade distribution, I’ve been thinking more about the many concepts of rarity and how they apply to coin collecting. Let’s take a look at a few and discuss them. Rarity is probably one of the two or three most misused terms in all of numismatics, especially from the selling side. I consistently see coins referred to as “rare” which most definitely are not.

Collectors need to remember that rarity is a relative concept. A coin like an 1895 Morgan Dollar is always termed a “rare” coin. Within the context of the Morgan Dollar series, it is rare. But one needs to remember that there are hundreds of examples known in grades up to and including PR67 and, if compared to a coin like an 1867-S quarter eagle (which is priced at a tiny fraction of the 1895 dollar) it is common. What always needs to be remembered when analyzing rarity is context. There are, in theory, hundreds if not thousands of serious Morgan dollar collectors and this makes a coin like an 1895 contextually rare. On the other hand, there are probably less than two to three dozen serious collectors of Liberty Head quarter eagles and an issue like an 1867-S exists in enough quantity that anyone who wants a decent example should be able to find one. In other words, there are basically enough to go around; at least for now.

Rarity is both relative and series specific. It is difficult to compare absolute rarity from one series to another. As I mentioned above, a coin with 20 known in all grades can be a great rarity in a popular series, or it can be a “sleeper” if it is in a series which has the potential of being more intensely collected in the future. There are also numerous esoteric coins that have 20 known but the number of collectors is so few that 20 coins is the equivalent to hundreds of pieces known in a more popular series.

There are essentially two types of rarity. The first is overall rarity. This refers to a coin which is rare in all grades and whose rarity is not solely predicated on its grade. A coin which is rare in all grades is also called fundamentally rare.  As a dealer, these are the types of coins I like to buy and what I specialize in.

A coin can be fundamentally rare for a number of reasons. A Proof 1878 gold dollar is fundamentally rare because of its original mintage figure (a scant 20 coins). An 1828/7 half eagle is fundamentally rare because virtually every known example was melted in 1834 when the weight was changed for gold coins and old tenor half eagles were worth more than face value. An 1865 half eagle is rare not only because of a low original mintage figure (1,270 business strikes) but because of the fact that it is a well-used Civil War issue that not only saw active use in circulation was later melted.

In the area of branch mint gold, few issues are fundamentally rare. Most exist in quantities of 150-200 in all grades. But nearly all branch mint coins are grade rarities.

In nearly all series of American coins, grade rarity has become more significant to collectors than condition rarity. An 1843-D half eagle in Very Fine is a relatively available coin and within the context of Dahlonega issues it is common. But this same date in, say, Mint State-63 is very rare and it is described as a grade rarity.

But the real grade rarities in American numismatics tend to be in 20th century series. An average quality MS64 1912 St. Gaudens double eagle is worth around $5,000 in MS64 and $25,000 or more in properly graded MS65. The disparity can be far, far greater with coins from the 1940’s, 1950’s and 1960’s. As an example (and I selected this totally randomly) a 1942-S quarter is worth $300 in PCGS MS66, $2,500 in PCGS MS67 and close to $20,000—maybe more—in PCGS MS68. That’s a big difference in quality for a difference in appearance that might not be readily recognizable to more than a handful of dealers and specialized collectors.

The difference between the 1843-D half eagle and the 1942-S quarter is that the former has a reasonably significant degree of value in all grades. Even a cleaned, no-grade 1843-D is worth around $1,000; an average quality circulated 1942-S might not fetch six bucks at your local coin shop.

To my way of thinking the “best” coins are what I call dual rarities. This is a coin that is not only rare from an overall standpoint (i.e., it might have a total number known of 40-50) and it is among the best known for that particular issue. Going back to a  coin I mentioned earlier in this blog, the 1865 half eagle, a nice AU55 example would be a dual rarity as it would be among the finest known examples of a coin which is rare in all grades.

The newest category of rarity, one that dates from the 1970’s but which is probably at its height right now, is what I refer to as appearance rarity. Appearance rarity can be related to strike (Full Bands for Mercury dimes, Full Head for Standing Liberty quarters) or it can be related to coloration (Red and Brown or Red for Lincoln Cents). The newest categories of appearance rarity relate to the actual finish of a Proof coin (Deep Cameo/Ultra Cameo) or for business strikes (Prooflike or Deep Mirror Prooflike).

I have mixed feelings about appearance rarity. If I was collecting Lincoln Cents by date, would I spend $100,000+ for a PCGS Red MS65 1926-S or $5,000+ for a mostly red MS65 Red and Brown? Easy answer for me (without a doubt I’m in for the Red and Brown coin) but, then again, I’m a fundamental rarity guy and not a condition rarity so the concepts of appearance rarity seems totally wacky to me. But there are instances I will and do pay a premium for appearance; an example would be a better date Type Three double eagle in MS63 designated as Deep Mirror Prooflike or a rare date Proof Liberty Head half eagle designated as Deep Cameo.

One of the oldest subcategories of rarity is also one of the hardest for the layman to figure. Certain series, like Large Cents and Capped Bust half dollars are avidly collected by die variety. There might not be more a few dozen very serious collectors in these two areas but they tend to be extremely passionate and often very well-heeled. For a non-specialist like me, I am often amazed at the huge prices certain early cents bring but I can appreciate them. My only caveat for a variety collector is to avoid paying premiums in series which are not avidly collected by die variety. You may collect Trade Dollars by variety but if you do you are one of probably ten or fewer collectors who do. Paying a large premium for a seemingly rare variety might not prove financially prudent down the road.

In closing, I’d like to quickly address a question which I am often asked by new collectors: how can you tell if a coin is truly rare? I think frequency of appearance at auction is an excellent guide.

• If a coin appears for sale at virtually all major sales, it is common. An example of this would be a 1901-S eagle in MS64.
• If a coin appears a few times a year at auction (say three or four times), it is at the very least scarce. An example of this would be an 1849-D half eagle in AU50.
• If a coin appears less than once per year at auction, it is rare. This is true from both an in-grade and overall rarity perspective.
• And if a coin appears at auction once every three to five years? That, in my opinion, is a coin which is very rare or even extremely rare.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

What Gives a Coin the "Wow" Factor?

At shows or while viewing auctions, I look at a lot of coins. Most leave no impression, some make me pause for a moment before I resume looking at more coins and a small number get me to stop everything else I'm doing (I'm a notorious multitasker), exclaim "wow" and get my thoughts immediately oriented towards "how do I buy this coin and what will I have to pay for it." There are not alot of coins with this "wow" factor but I find that nearly all the coins that excite me have one or more things in common. What are some of the things that make a coin special for me and how do they affect my decision to purchase them?

1.  Great Scarcity.  I deliberately didn't say "great rarity." Obviously, if I'm looking at lots in a Heritage sale and I see an 1854-S quarter eagle which looks like it was run over by a train, I'm still going to stop, look at it carefully and probably figure a bid. But I'm more likely to be impressed by a coin with great relative scarcity within a series. In other words, if I see a real Uncirculated 1870 quarter eagle (a date which is almost never available in true Mint State), I'm likely to be "wowed." This isn't necessarily an expensive coin but I'm more likely to be stopped in my tracks by a CAC-quality MS62 1870 quarter eagle than I am a far more expensive but far more often seen issue.

As you become more familiar with a series, you learn what dates are seen with regularity (even if they are perceived to be "rare") and which just don't turn up very much. As an example, I was at a show recently and was offered a Proof example of a date which I hadn't remembered seeing in some time. I did a quick search through auction records and noted that this date became available at a rate of about once every four or five years. The coin itself wasn't a Gem but it had a decent appearance and it was priced fairly. I was happy to buy it for my inventory.

  2.  Great Eye Appeal.  Eye appeal is best defined as a combination of factors (strike, luster, color, preservation of the surfaces) which combine to make a coin attractive. Most savvy buyers have one or two hot buttons which, if they are pressed, have a greater impact. For me, these tend to be thick, frosty luster and deep, rich even coloration.

Luster is the reflection of light from the surface of a coin. When a coin is worn, dipped, cleaned or processed, the luster is impaired and the eye appeal is impacted. As I look through coins at shows and at auction, few have nice original luster and, as a result, when a coin with "booming" original mint frost is available, it tends to look great.

But part of a weakness for luster is also knowing the series which you collect. As an example, 1847-C quarter eagles are sometimes seen with thick, frosty luster and higher grade pieces can have really good eye appeal as a result. An issue such as an 1848-C quarter eagle is not known for good luster and I can't recall having seen more than two or three coins which had a "wow" factor as a result of good luster.

I can love a coin if it isn't sharply struck or if it shows an average number of non-detracting bagmarks but I have a hard time with coins that have bland, washed-out color. To me a coin with no definable color has no character and this sort of "blah" appearance is hard for me to embrace.

As with what I mentioned above for luster, the same is true with color: as you learn your area of specialization, you learn what color(s) a coin should show. As an example, the proper color for an early date Dahlonega half eagle is much different than that for a date from the mid-1850's. But when coins have been processed, they tend to look alike; meaning an 1841-D half eagle will look virtually the same as an 1858-D. And this is why that when I see an 1841-D with the "right" shade of green-gold color, I get excited and it gives me the wow factor.

3.  Great Pedigrees.  I'll come right out and admit it: I'm a sucker for a great pedigree. A few weeks ago, I started to read the auction descriptions for the Eric P. Newman coins which are going to be sold in a few weeks by Heritage at the 2013 CSNS auction. The coins were impressive, the grades were impressive. What excited me most about this deal, though, was the pedigrees which many of the coins have. As an example, the star in this first group of Newman coins is an 1852 Humbert $10 graded MS68 by NGC. Not only has Mr. Newman owned this coin since the 1920's, it came from the famous Zabreskie sale of 1907 and, even more impressively, has a direct pedigree that goes back to Augustus Humbert's estate. In other words, this coin belonged to the man who struck it. How cool is that?

Not every pedigree means that much to me. There are a few which have personal significance and I will stretch to buy nice coins from these collections even if they are a bit "out of the box" for me.  Amongst sales from my lifetime,  the ones which impact me the most are Bass, Eliasberg, Milas, Norweb, James Stack, Duke's Creek, Green Pond and Dingler.  Just about any coin from a Chapman Brothers sale (with a verifiable pedigree) would have a high wow factor for me as would coins from "name" collections sold prior to 1945.

4.  Great Historical Significance.  As a child, my interest in coins was predicated on my love of history. As an adult, this has, if anything, intensified. A coin with Wild West association is of interest to me and that's why a nice CC double eagle from the 1870's has more of a wow factor for me than a nice CC double eagle from the 1890's. Others historic eras which send a shiver down my numismatic spine? Certainly the Civil War and, a bit less so, World War 1. I'd also give high wow marks to San Francisco gold coins from the 1850's and antebellum New Orleans issues from the 1840's.

Numismatic significance goes hand-in-hand with historic significance. Sure, I'm a coin weenie but I will admit that factors like a coin being a first-year-of-issue or a one-year type excite me.

Another dimension which can increase the wow factor of a coin for me is its age. An eagle dated 1799 just seems Older" (and therefore cooler) than one dated 1800 or 1801 and this tends to get my attention when I'm looking at coins. I think this is the case with most collectors. A nice coin dated in the 1790's has more appeal than just about any other American issue, regardless of denomination.

5.  Great Backstory.  I'm a sucker for a coin with a great backstory. Let me give you an example.

Perhaps you've seen the small red presentation boxes which people used to give gold coins in as Christmas gifts. They were typically for gold dollars and quarter eagles and they were reasonably common from the 1880's until the 1920's. On a few occasions, I've had people email photos of otherwise-common Liberty Head or Indian Head quarter eagles which are housed in these boxes. Sometimes, the boxes are inscribed and sometimes they come with letters which feature ornate notes from a grandmother to her grandson/granddaughter. I like the sentimental value that these have and because of the backstory, I will always buy them and sell the peripherals alongside the coins to add to the wow factor.

A few months ago, Heritage sold a Gem gold dollar from the 1880's (I think it was either an 1885 or an 1887) which came in a lovely little presentation box with a beautiful, ornate inscription inside of it. I didn't buy it but the dealer who did (hint, he's tall, from Oklahoma and his last name rhymes with Barter...) is someone who is as easily swayed by a coin's backstory as I am.

What is it about a coin that gives you the "wow" factor? I'd love for you to share this with me and invite you to add a comment to this blog. Are you interested in acquiring coins for you collecting which have a strong wow factor? if so, please contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.

What Percentage of Classic Rare United States Coins Have Been Graded by the Services?

     After 25+ years of encapsulating coins and 50+ million submissions, it is clear that PCGS and NGC have had a huge impact on the way we view coin rarity. I have personally learned many things: which coins are rare and which are not; which coins are true condition rarities and how issues within a specific series can be viewed on a comparative basis. This got me to thinking: how many coins within a series need to be graded (on a percentage basis) to make definitive rarity statements? And once this has been determined, what percentage of coins within certain series have already been graded by PCGS and NGC?      To start making trenchant observations about absolute and conditional rarity, I think we have to feel confident that over 50-60% of all known coins in a specific series have been graded. When it comes to expensive (let's say $5,000 and up) gold coins, I think the percentage of all coins graded by PCGS and/or NGC ranges from a low of around 65-70% to a high of close to 90%.

 Let's take a look at a few specific areas and try to guess what percentage of coins have been graded.

     1.  Charlotte and Dahlonega Gold

     The Charlotte and Dahlonega market was reasonably hesitant to embrace third-party grading and this initially made sense, given how erratically these coins were graded by PCGS and NGC during their formative years. But by the end of the 1980's, submitters were more confident and large quantities of these pieces were being encapsulated. And given the high average value of C+D gold, it makes sense that even the low end coins would eventually be sent in for slabbing.

     My guess is that a great majority of Charlotte and Dahlonega gold in all denominations resides in PCGS or NGC holders as of 2013. There are certainly still a few old school collectors who have held out and won't have " those confounded newfangled slabs" in their collections but these are seen less and less as the years pass. And given the fact that there were never many C+D coins in overseas sources, such as European banks, the thought of bags of Dahlonega half eagles lurking in Dortmund seems remote.

     When you look at PCGS and NGC populations figures for C+D mint gold, you have to remember a few things. The first is that these figures are inflated by resubmissions. The second is that they, of course, do not include damaged or cleaned coins which do not qualify for slabbing. Taking these two factors into consideration, I'd still say that the percentage of C+D gold which has been graded by PCGS and NGC is comparatively high; ranging from 75 to 85% of the known examples. In the case of choice, high end pieces (MS60 and above) this might be as high as 90% with the few renegade raw coins being those held by museums such as the ANS and the Smithsonian.

     2.  Proof Gold

     I always felt that one aspect of slabbing which was undervalued was its ability to protect fragile coins. Back in the old days, coins were typically transported to shows loose in 2x2 plastic flips and it would always make me cringe to see a coin like a Gem Proof Liberty Head double eagle in a soft flip. You knew that these coins were collecting hairlines with every trip to Long Beach or New York. Slabs were far safer environments for such coins. Because of this, Proof gold was an early adherent and by the late 1980's/early 1990's many Proof gold coins were already in slabs.

      Then came the Great Proof Gold Era of 1995-2000 when collections such as Childs, Bass and Pittman were sold at auction. In some cases you had very rare issues with ten or so known coins having three different survivors sold in a short period of time. Virtually all of these coins wound up being encapsulated or, in the case of the Bass collection, were sold in PCGS slabs.

     There are still two rich sources of unslabbed Proof gold: the ANS collection and the US Mint collection in the Smithsonian. But other than these two, I doubt if there are more than a handful of gradable Proof gold coins that still lurk in the raw. I'm going to guess that the percentage of pre-1916 proof US gold coins that have been graded by PCGS and NGC are at least 85% and may actually be as high as 90%.

      3. Early Gold

     I can remember auctions full of interesting unslabbed early gold coins as recently as the mid-1990's but these days are long, long gone. Today, virtually all early gold that is capable of being encapsulated is now encased in slabs. There were holdouts in this area of the market who lasted longer than in the two categories mentioned above and for good (and bad) reasons. I can remember dealing with some old time collections as recently as the 1990's who felt that they knew more about early gold than PCGS and NGC did and, in a few cases, they were right. Also, lower grade early gold wasn't as expensive then as it is now and a raw problem-free 1810 half eagle wasn't looked at like a man with two heads might be today.

     The grading services have vastly improved their ability to grade early gold and most of the old time collectors who scoffed at slabs have passed away or are no longer active. Today's generation of early gold collectors and investors would just as soon eat dirt as they would buy any early gold coin unslabbed and they have come to rely on PCGS and NGC to help them grade these complicated issues. As a result, I'd have to estimate that at least 75-85% of all early gold is now encapsulated and I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number is as high as 90%.

    4.  Generic Gold

    When I speak of Generic Gold, I aam refering about coins such as common date With Motto Liberty Head half eagles and common St. Gaudens double eagles. Staggering numbers of these coins exist in the higher circulated grades and the lower Uncirculated grades and many of these have been graded by PCGS and NGC. If you look at population figures for coins like 1901-S eagles in MS62 to MS64 or 1927 Saints in MS62 to MS64, the numbers are pretty impressive.

     But I think there are still very large quantities of these coins that have not been sent in to PCGS and NGC. I know for a fact that there are at least six or seven American firms who import large amounts of United States gold coins from European and other overseas sources every month. While supplies from Europe ebb and flow, the quantities coming over every year are still immense; in the tens of thousands at the very least.

     So while there are hundreds and hundreds of thousands of generics in slabs, I think that the quantity of raw coins remains very large. I'm sort of guessing here but I wouldn't be surprised if the number of slabbed generic coins in slabs is only 50% of the total that have survived.

     5.  Miscellaneous

     As I mentioned above, one of the parameters of slabbing coins is the economics involved. If a coin is worth $400, it is less likely to be slabbed than if it is worth $3,000. But a reasonably interesting $400 coin, like an AU50 1851-O dollar is more likely to be slabbed than an uninteresting $400 gold coin like a common date $2.50 Indian in AU50. Becuase of this fact, I think there are still tens of thousands of cheap American gold coins which have yet to be slabbed although this number is diminishing over time due to the rise in gold prices and the demand for slabbed coins versus raw coins.

     There are still some non-gold series where lots of nice collector-grade coins have not been slabbed due mostly to collector preference. Examples of this include Large Cents, Seated Liberty coinage and Barber coinage in all denominations. This includes significant numbers of problem-free coins in the $100-2,500 price range in grades ranging from AG to AU.  You can still go to coin shows and find interesting raw coins like 1862-S half dollars in nice EF45 or 1874-CC trade dollars in VF30. While I don't see the end of the line--yet--for such coins, I can tell you that more and more are being "made" at PCGS and NGC.

     So what can we conclude from my percentage guesstimates regarding numbers of coins graded at the services?

     The most important conclusions is that, yes, sizable percentages of many United States gold coins have been encapsulated and due to this fact we can make statements about rarity--fundamental, absolute and condition--which really couldn't be made as recently as a decade ago.

     That said, there are still important and impressive individual coins "in the wild" and in  collections that are not widely known which always make me hesitate to make definitive statements along the line of "this is the finest known" or "this is the rarest Liberty Head half eagle in Uncirculated" (and believe me, I make more of these statements than the average coin dealer...) With the recent sale announcement of the Eric Newman collection, this reminded that important new discoveries (or re-discoveries) await us with each passing year.

     I want to know your thoughts on this subject. If you'd like, share them below or email me at dwn@ont.com.

The Availability of Rare Coins

One thing that I’ve always found interesting about the coin market is the ebb and flow of coins that are (or aren’t) available. If you actively buy and sell coins for any period of time, you learn that certain “rare” issues or series always seem available. Other supposedly available coins can, with no good reason, go through fallow periods where they become very hard to find. I was having a conversation with a client yesterday and he raised a good point: in the last year or so, it seems that interesting New Orleans half eagles have not been offered for sale with much frequency. As we began discussing this statement, my mind raced back through the last year and I asked myself what were some of the interesting New Orleans half eagles that I have recently handled. The answer was pretty illuminating...

Over the years, I think I’ve owned more interesting New Orleans half eagles than just about anyone. I was one of the first dealers to recognize how rare these coins are and I’ve tried to make a market in high quality New Orleans half eagles for close to two decades.

As recently as a few years ago, I was handling ultra-cool New Orleans half eagles on a regular basis. Coins like the Pittman MS63 1840-O, two of the three known Uncirculated 1842-O, two extremely high grade 1843-O Small Letters, the MS63 Bass 1845-O, two nice Uncirculated 1851-O, the two finest known 1854-O, etc. Often, I had two or three Finest Known or Condition Census coins at one time.

But since last summer I’ve noted a major slow down in the New Orleans half eagles I’ve handled. I don’t think I’ve owned a single 1842-O or 1847-O this year and the only Uncirculated pieces of note that I’ve handled have been the more available dates like the 1840-O, 1844-O, 1845-O, 1846-O and 1854-O. So where are the coins?

My guess is that what we are seeing here a classic case of a Real Collector’s Market. Let me explain. My enthusiasm for New Orleans half eagles has probably rubbed-off on a few people and my guess is, at this point in time, there are at least six to ten serious collectors of New Orleans half eagles. Assuming this is the case, this has removed most of the nicer New Orleans half eagles from the market. Let’s quickly do the math.

Say we’re looking at a coin like the 1851-O half eagle in Uncirculated. My best estimate is that a half dozen or so are known in Uncirculated. With at least six to nine collectors out there for this series in high grades, that means that the demand clearly exceeds the supply. Given the fact that most of the serious collectors for this series seem to be in buy mode right now as opposed to sell mode, this means that the supply has dried-up for a coin like an Uncirculated 1851-O half eagle. A high grade example won’t come on the market unless a current owner is forced to sell, a new coin is discovered or prices rise to the point that current owners are motivated to sell.

But the ebb and flow of coin supply isn’t always so cut and dry. Look at something like Large Cents. Years went by with no major collections selling and now, within the last two years, you have the Husak, Naftzger and Holmes collections becoming available. I don’t think any serious Cent collectors expected so many great coins to come on the market in such a short time. It was, instead, a series of circumstances that occurred in an almost random fashion.

Back to New Orleans half eagles. When will the dearth of choice, interesting coins end? It’s hard to say. This article could spur a few coins coming onto the market (and if you are planning to sell any, please call me first!). Or, we could go another year or two before any interesting coins come on the market. It’s hard to say and I think this degree of uncertainty is one of the things that make a truly rare segment of the market like this much more interesting than Morgan Dollars or Buffalo Nickels.

Proof U.S. Gold Coins

Proof Gold Coins - Mintage Figure Variance - While it is difficult to make sweeping generalizations about the survival rate of Proof United States gold coinage, some factors exist that help to determine the rarity of many issues. It is interesting to analyze these factors and apply them to the various denominations. For the most part, Proof gold coins have small mintage figures. With the exception of some of the later date Type Three gold dollars, most issues had fewer than 100 struck and nearly all of the pre-1880 issues have mintages of 50 or less.

As a good rule of thumb, it is a safe assumption that around half of the original mintage figure for a specific issue of Proof gold is known. In other words, if the original mintage of an 1876 gold dollar is 45 coins, it is likely that 20-25 are known today.

What are the factors that exist that make a Proof gold coin more or less common than its mintage figure would suggest? These include the following:

1. External Economic Factors: During hard economic times, Proof gold coins may have been melted or spent. As an example, in the Depression of the 1930’s, Proof eagles and double eagles were spent as they were not worth a significant amount above face value. Other periods of economic hardship that saw a reduction of Proof gold populations include the Civil War and the Reconstruction Era, the Depression of 1873-1878 and the Panic(s) of 1893 and 1907. I believe that this had a very large impact on Proof gold survival rates.

2. Coin Size: This actually works both ways. As mentioned above, during tough economic times, small coins are more apt to survive than large coins. But, a coin as small as a gold dollar is more likely to be “lost” than one as large as a double eagle. Both factors certainly contribute to survival rates of Proof gold.

3. Popularity of the Denomination: Although this is more speculation than fact, I would presume that denominations that have traditionally not been popular with collectors (gold dollars and three dollars) have been more susceptible to loss than more popular denominations such as eagles and double eagles.

4. Hoarding: Certain Proof gold issues were hoarded by contemporary dealers and collectors. This tends to inflate their survival rate. The Proof gold issues most affected by contemporary hoarding include gold dollars and three dollar gold pieces from the 1880’s. It is interesting to note that mintage figures for these two denominations reached record highs during this era; this was a direct result of contemporary speculator demand. 5. Restrikes: Not all Proof gold coins are as rare as their mintage figures would indicate. As an example, PCGS and NGC have combined to grade far more 1875 and 1876 Three Dollar gold pieces than the reported original mintage figures. While the slabbed population is clearly inflated by resubmissions, many collectors are not aware of the fact that the reported original mintage figures of 20 and 45, respectively, does not take into consideration a number of Restrikes that were produced by the U.S. Mint in order to placate collector demand for these two rare issues. Other years with potential Restrikes include 1865 and 1873.

6. Mint Melting/Mint Record Errors: Certain mintage figures for Proof gold coins just seem to make no sense. As an example, the reported mintage for Proof gold dollar and three dollar gold pieces in 1861 is reported to be 349 coins; the highest figure for these two denominations until the 1880’s. It has traditionally been assumed that the Mint was way too optimistic in producing Proofs this year and most were melted at the end of 1861 when they went unsold. I personally would not be surprised if these figures actually represented an error. Another year that has a skewed mintage figure is 1859, the first year of “modernity” for United States Proof gold. The Mint struck 80 examples of all gold denominations, in anticipation of strong demand in the booming new hobby of coin collecting. This proved to be way too optimistic and the vast majority was melted. Another “problem year” is 1910 which has much higher mintages than any other Indian Head design. I believe that the published figures are in error.

Given these six factors, how do they impact the specific denominations of Proof gold coins? My experience with each denomination is as follows:

Gold Dollars: The dates from the 1850’s and 1860’s tend to be very rare in all grades. However, the survival rate of these coins is much higher than expected with the exception of the 1859-1861 dates (whose inflated mintages figures were discussed above under Factor #6). The issues from the 1870’s typically have survival rates of around 50% of the original mintage. The 1880’s Proofs are a real anomaly. From 1884 to 1889, the mintages exceeded 1,000; a huge number of coins by Proof gold standards. But the survival rate is likely between 10 and 20% for each of these. I would ascribe this to numerous coins getting melted in the lean economic years of the early to mid-1890’s.

Quarter Eagles: With the exception of the famous 1841 and 1863 issues, virtually all pre-1870 Proof quarter eagles are extremely rare and most have fewer than ten survivors. The issues from the 1870’s tend to have survival rates of around 50% while the 1880’s and 1890’s seem to be a bit more available in terms of their original mintage. The 1900’s Liberty Head issues have survival rates as high as 75%. Indian Head quarter eagles have an average survival rate of 50% (+/- 10%).

Three Dollars: The issues from the 1850’s are extremely rare in Proof and all have low mintages. The 1860’s and 1870’s issues have average survival rates of around 50% (the exceptions to this are the 1860 and 1861 which had significant meltings) and the 1875 and 1876 (see Factor #5 above). The 1880’s dates mostly have survival rates in the 50-60% range.

Four Dollars: Stellas are really a separate story in and of themselves. Many of the 1879 Flowing Hairs were saved as souvenirs (see Factor #4) and Restrikes exist. The other three issues appear to have survival rates of around 50%.

Half Eagles: With the exception of the 1864 (which had a “whopping” mintage of 50), all No Motto half eagles in Proof are exceedingly rare. The With Motto issues from the 1860’s and 1870’s typically have survival rates of well under 50%; some issues (such as the 1870, 1871, 1874 and 1878) have survival rates that are probably less than 25%. With one or two exceptions, the dates from the 1880’s have also survived with less frequency than one might assume. Most of the 1890’s and 1900’s dates have survival rates of around 50% (+/- 10%). Indian Head half eagles are scarcer on a relative basis than their quarter eagle counterparts and I’d estimate that 30-40% of the original mintage exists.

Eagles: Virtually all No Motto eagles are exceedingly rare in Proof. The With Motto Proofs from the 1860’s and the 1870’s are all very rare and most have fewer than ten survivors. I have always found the Proofs from the 1880’s to be far rarer than most people realize and many of the specific issues (1881, 1883, 1885 and 1889 to name a few) have survival rates of fewer than 25% of the original mintage. The 1890’s are slightly more available (around a third have survived) while the 1900’s dates have survival rates of around 50%. Proof Indian Head eagles, with the exception of the 1908, range from very rare to extremely rare and have typical survival rates of around 25%.

Double Eagles: Only 265 Type One Liberty Head double eagles were made in the Proof format and I would be surprised if more than three to four dozen exist. The Type Two issues are also very rare with a total mintage of only 335 Proofs. They are more available on a relative basis than their Type One counterparts and I think somewhere between a quarter and a third of the original mintage has survived. The Type Three Proofs are the most available Liberty Head double eagles but this is misleading as only a small handful of dates (primarily those dated 1900 to 1907) have survival rates that exceed 30-40%. Proof St. Gaudens double eagles are extremely rare but they have a slightly higher survival rate that one might expect. My best guess is that around one-third of the original mintage exists.

Charlotte Half Eagle Rarity

As I’ve been working on the updated third edition of my Charlotte book, I’ve had the chance to make some interesting observations regarding the rarity of Charlotte half eagles. The overall rarity of most Charlotte half eagles has changed. In nearly every instance, this has meant an increase in the total number known for a specific issue. As an example, I estimated in the second edition that 70-80 examples of the 1840-C half eagle existed. My revised estimate, in the third edition, is 80-100.

The increased populations are a result of a number of factors. After nearly twenty years of grading Charlotte coins, the PCGS and NGC populations represent significantly large percentages of the known total for every specific issue. So, these population figures carry more weight with me than they did ten years ago (and, yes, I have figured regrades/resubmissions prominently as a factor of total populations from both services).

I believe that my second edition estimates were also a bit on the low side when it comes to lower grade coins. While I knew of nearly every high grade 1840-C half eagle that exists (now or when the last edition was written) I tended to underestimate the low grade coins. My new estimates try to take into account these pieces.

There are changes in the population estimates for EF and AU half eagles because, let’s face it, the EF45 of ten years ago is, in most cases, an AU50 (or higher) today. I’ve tried to factor in gradeflation into my estimates and I tend to discount some of the slabbed AU50 or MS60/61 coins as, in my opinion, they do not meet my personal grading standards.

One thing my updated research has reinforced is that really choice Charlotte half eagles (MS63 and better) remain genuinely rare. While many of the coins listed in the Condition Census of my second book have changed owners and, in many cases, holders, they remain coins with pedigrees that I am able to trace back to the 1990’s or earlier. I’ve also noticed that the grading services have done a good job (most of the time) at holding the line on higher grading Charlotte half eagles. While a few MS63’s have become MS64’s or MS64’s have become MS65’s, many of the coins that were grading MS64 or MS65 back in the mid-to-late 1990’s have remained consistently graded.

The Bass sales, held from 1999 to 2001, had a huge impact on the third edition of the book. Many of the coins that I speculated about in the first two editions but were unaware of their location/grades were in the Bass collection. They now appear in the third edition; complete with accurate pedigrees and current grades.

What are a few other things that I have learned about Charlotte half eagles that will be reflected in the new third edition of the book?

* I’ve learned that some of the die variety information for issues such as the 1849-C, 1850-C, 1853-C and 1854-C was wrong and it has been corrected.

* I’ve learned the value of good pictures and the crappy old black and white images that appeared in the first two editions will be replaced by useful color plates.

* I’ve learned that people generally liked the format and design of my second edition of the New Orleans gold book that I published last year and so this format will be adapted to the upcoming Charlotte book.

* Finally, I’ve learned that Charlotte coinage for me is like the numismatic equivalent of “home cooking” and when I’m feeling cranky or burned-out, nothing is more numismatically soothing than a dose of Charlotte half eagles.

Scarcity of Branch Mint Issues

When examining surviving populations of branch mint gold coins it is easy to forget just how scarce some of these issues are in higher grades. I’d like to demonstrate a little numismatic “magic trick” and turn 200 into 20 (or less) right in front of your very eyes. Let’s take a random issue and play around with survival numbers. How about the 1848-C quarter eagle?

The 1848-C is a date that doesn’t get much attention. It’s certainly no big deal, rarity-wise, in lower grades but it is scarce in the lower AU grades, very rare in the higher AU grades and exceedingly rare (and overlooked) in Uncirculated.

A total of 16,788 1848-C quarter eagles were produced. As with most Charlotte quarter eagles, it has a survival rate of around 1%-2% of the original mintage figure. I estimate that 150-200 are known, although this figure does not take into account what are probably a number of low grade and/or damaged specimens. Of these 150-200 coins, I estimate that at least 70-100 grade VF or below by my standards (which, by the way are not necessarily the same as NGC’s or PCGS’) and another 56-70 grade EF40 to EF45. All of a sudden the population of higher grade 1848-C quarter eagles has shrunk considerably.

I believe that 22-26 examples of this date are known in the various AU grades. That seems like a reasonably decent number of coins; certainly a large enough pool of coins for the casual collector to choose from, right? This number does not take into account that many of the 22-26 coins have problems. Certainly at least half of these two dozen or so coins have been cleaned, processed or unnaturally brightened. Suddenly, the available population of nice higher grade 1848-C quarter eagles has been reduced to maybe a dozen coins.

But these dozen coins include another potential monkey wrench which might thwart the collector seeking a nice 1848-C quarter eagle. If you read my book on Charlotte quarter eagles, you’ll learn that this issue is notorious for poor strikes and that a number were produced from severely swollen dies which leave the coins looking like a mess. So now these dozen coins might now be reduced down to as few as seven or eight nice, original (or “original-ish”) AND decently struck 1848-C quarter eagles. Assuming that there are at least four or five collectors assembling circulated Charlotte quarter eagle sets by date, this means as few as three or four pieces might become available in, say, a two or three year period. I’d say that qualifies as a pretty rare coin.

These numbers do not apply to all branch mint gold issues. There are certain dates that, for a variety of reasons, have a much higher overall survival rate or because of hoards have a higher percentage of high grade coins among the survivors.

A few examples of branch mint dates that have uncommonly high survival rates include the 1854-D $3.00 (I estimate that as much as 10% of the original mintage figure exists) and the 1838-D $5.00. There are generally pretty obvious reasons why issues like these have higher survival rates than usual. In the case of the 1854-D $3.00 it is because this is a one-year type coin and the novelty factor of a Dahlonega Three Dollar gold piece probably caused a number to be saved as souvenirs by curious locals. The same is probably the case with the 1838-D $5.00. This is a first-year-of-issue and it seems almost certain that a few were saved as curiosities by Dahlonegonians. (By the way, I just made up that word. I wonder if the correct expression isn’t actually Dahlonegites??)

There might also be another reason to consider in regards to high grade rarity for certain branch mint issues. A few dates have had their populations of higher grade pieces swelled by the (possible) existence of hoards. I surmise this to be the case with issues such as the 1857-D and 1858-C quarter eagles and the 1841-D half eagle and know this to be a fact for issues like the 1856-D half eagle.

The bottom line is that many branch mint issues are much, much scarcer in higher grade (say AU55 and above) than their certified populations might suggest. As a rule of thumb, even the “common” issues such as 1849-D gold dollars or 1847-C quarter eagles are far less available in choice AU than one might expect and these issues are certain to get scarcer in the coming years.