How Does the Increase in the Price of Gold Affect the U.S. Rare Coin Market?

As I write this, gold has hit a high not seen since 1979-1980 and it is flirting with the $750 mark. How is this run-up in prices affecting the United States rare gold coin market? If you have a position in generic issues (such as St. Gaudens double eagles) you’ve made yourself a nice chunk of change these last few weeks. MS64’s have risen from the mid to high $700’s up to the mid $900’s and MS65’s have seen an increase of around $250 per coin as well.

But if you are a reader of my raregoldcoins.com blogs chances are good that you do not play the generics market. You own “real” coins; issues like New Orleans double eagles or Charlotte gold dollars or Carson City half eagles. How are these rarer issues being affected by the new record levels in the gold market?

In a word (or three) they really haven’t. One of the fallacies of a rising gold market is that anything that is yellow rises in prices when the market shoots up. This simply is not the case. An EF45 1853-D half eagle will rise in price as the result of increased demand, not because its intrinsic worth is now an additional $25-50. Most of the brand new buyers of physical gold (as least for now) are strictly investors and they do not even know what an 1853-D half eagle is.

New gold buyers generally follow a predictable progression. They begin by purchasing gold stocks or, perhaps, modern bullion coins like American Eagles or Krugerrands. For every 1,000 buyers, perhaps 5% graduate to generic issues such as Saints or Indian Head eagles. And of these buyers, a small number may, after some time, become aware of a coin such as the aforementioned 1853-D half eagle. But this is a lengthy process and today’s new buyers of gold may not get involved in numismatics for years, if ever.

So this is, in my opinion, why the current run-up in gold prices impact on the typical coin in my inventory is wishful thinking. I’d love to report that the phone is ringing off the hook with new investors screaming for Dahlonega half eagles but this is just not the case (not to mention that if anyone does call me regarding coins as an investment, my blunt answers tend to send them running for the hills…)

One thing that is a real positive about the run up in gold prices is that this clearly does focus a lot of fresh attention on gold and on gold coins. And any good publicity about gold coins can’t be bad, right?

I’ve had many people in the last few days ask me what my take is on gold in the short and long term. I don’t claim to have any profound insights in this area. I’m probably the world’s leading expert on branch mint gold coins but when it comes to geo-political thought and macroeconomics I’m just another Hack with a Keyboard. My opinion (for what’s its worth) is that as long as we have cheapened the dollar to its currently absurdly low levels, gold will become more and more of a hedge. I could easily see it go to $800-900 in the coming months. I’ll personally be selling into the market once it reaches these levels but I think the days of sub-$500 to $600 gold are long gone; probably for good. I would suggest that everyone own some gold as it seems like a safe place to put your paper dollars right now, especially given the alternatives.

Four 20th Century Gold Rarities and the Stories Behind Them

All four of the 20th century American gold types that were produced contain key issues that are very popular with collectors. This article takes a look at four of these: the 1911-D quarter eagle, the 1909-O half eagle, the 1920-S eagle and the 1921 double eagle. What do these four coins have in common? More than you would think. With the exception of the 1921 double eagle, each has a comparatively low mintage figure and is recognized as a key issue within its respective series. Each is very popular with collectors. And all four are relative “late discoveries” among collectors that have only recently been recognized as rarities within their series and have shown price appreciation befitting this status.

I. 1911-D Quarter Eagle

The Indian Head quarter eagle has proven to be one of the more popular of the four 20th century United States gold types. It is a short-lived set with just fifteen coins. Unlike its three counterparts, this series does not contain any impossible rarities and it can be completed in nice Uncirculated grades by a collector of reasonably average means. Because of this series brief duration and its relative ease of completion, it was a natural to be promoted on a large scale. And, unlike with other 20th century coinage, Indian Head quarter eagles have always been available in large enough quantities to make promotion readily feasible.

As soon as the first coin dealer realized that Indian Head quarter eagles were a great set to promote, the status of the 1911-D rose dramatically. Here was a coin that was an obvious candidate to be the superstar of the set. It had the lowest mintage figure by a huge margin and it was a legitimately scarce coin. As the Indian Head quarter eagle series became more and more popular, price levels for the 1911-D ran amuck. Today, many observers (including myself) feel that this is now among the more overvalued United States gold coins.

It is interesting to look at the numbers of 1911-D quarter eagles graded by PCGS and price levels. As an example, PCGS and NGC have graded over 1,200 1911-D quarter eagles in MS63 and MS64. Even assuming that a number of these are resubmissions, that is still somewhere in the area of 600-800 coins. According to the most recent Coin Dealer Newsletter, dealer bids for this date are $20,500 and $29,000, respectively, in MS63 and MS64. By the most optimistic standards, let’s say that there are currently 200 or so collectors and investors assembling high grade sets of Indian Head quarter eagles. That still means that the supply of these coins is generally more than enough to meet the demand. The bottom line is that while I think this coin has a great story behind it, it is wildly overvalued in the middle Uncirculated grades. (In MS65, the 1911-D is a truly rare coin and I think its current value of $80,000++ is legitimate). When and if the firms that are actively promoting Indian Head quarter eagles wind-down their marketing efforts, I can see MS63 and MS64 examples of this date losing a significant amount of their value.

II. 1909-O Half Eagle

The 1909-O has long been recognized as a key issue in the Indian Head half eagle series but its true scarcity in Uncirculated grades was not always recognized. This is true, of course, with most dates in this series. Before grading became as specialized as it is today, collectors who focused on Indian Head half eagles were unlikely to know—or care—if a coin was an MS63 or an MS64 or an MS65. The rarity of these coins in Gem really only became apparent once modern grading standards were applied to United States gold issues in the late 1970’s - early 1980’s.

The 1909-O has the lowest mintage figure of any Indian Head half eagle. In fact, it is one of just three issues in the series with an original mintage of less than 100,000 coins. There were 34,200 struck and this issue was clearly used in commerce as most of the survivors are in the EF40 to AU55 grade range. What is very surprising about this issue is that almost no examples were saved as souvenirs by local collectors or wealthy New Orleans residents who clearly must have found the 1909-O half eagle to be an interesting coin; after all, it was the first example of this denomination to be struck at New Orleans since 1894 and it was the first with the novel new incuse Indian Head design.

By the 1960’s, it was clear that this date was very rare in Choice to Gem Uncirculated and looking at auctions from this era, one sees some comparatively high prices realized for examples of the 1909-O half eagle that were described as Choice. But prices for this date really came into their own in the mid to late 1970’s when high grade rarities reached price levels that went unequalled for many years.

Today, specialists know that the 1909-O is rare in properly graded MS62, very rare in MS63 and extremely rare in MS64. The population figures for this issue appear to be very inflated as witnessed by the current PCGS population of 21 coins in MS64 (in my opinion, it is unlikely that there are more than four or five accurately graded MS64 examples known). There are two or three Gems known including the Eliasberg coin which is now in a PCGS MS66 holder and which is, without a doubt, the single most valuable business strike Indian Head half eagle in existence.

Is the 1909-O half eagle overvalued? I think the current prices that this issue fetches in AU55 to MS61 seem too strong, given the relative availability of such coins and the fact that most are dramatically overgraded. In MS62 and higher I don’t think this coin is overvalued. My reasoning behind this is the fact that the 1909-O is the only Indian Head half eagle that has multiple levels of demand. It is considered desirable by New Orleans gold collectors, one-year type coin specialists and Indian Head half eagle aficionados. These multiple levels of demand ensure that the 1909-O is likely to continue to be one of the key 20th century American gold coins.

III. 1920-S Eagle

Between 1916 and 1929, only one eagle was produced at the San Francisco mint: the 1920-S. This is a coin which is far rarer than its original mintage figure of 126,500 would suggest. It appears that virtually all of these coins were melted and that almost none of the 1920-S eagles that were struck were released into circulation. I can’t recall having seen more than three or four that showed signs of actual circulation (and these were, in all probability, pocket pieces that had been carried as souvenirs).

There are a number of features that are unusual about the 1920-S, besides the fact that it is the only San Francisco eagle of this design struck in over a decade. Most Indian Head eagles are exceptionally well struck and show very strong fine detail at the centers. The 1920-S is the most poorly produced Indian Head eagle of any date. It is the only issue that typically shows pronounced weakness of strike. Many examples are weak on the hair below the word LIBERTY and on the corresponding portion of the reverse. In addition to this, the luster is often inferior and the overall level of eye appeal is inferior to that seen on other San Francisco eagles of this type. I presume that the reason for this is the fact that the people making these coins at the San Francisco mint hadn’t had much practice on any eagles, given the fact that none had been struck since 1916.

The price history of the 1920-S is interesting as well. This was a relatively expensive coin in the 1940’s and 1950’s but its price flattened in the 1960’s and early 1970’s. It became popular again the 1970’s and early 1980’s but when the Indian Head eagle series dropped in popularity in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, the 1920-S flattened. In fact, prices for this date in almost all grades were remarkably stagnant throughout the 1990’s. It has only been during the past few years that prices have risen, especially in higher grades. As an example, in Heritage’s July 2006 auction, a high end PCGS MS64 example sold for a remarkable $172,500. As a mater of comparison, the last two PCGS MS64 1920-S eagles offered by Heritage brought $41,400 and $55,200, respectively, when sold at auction in 2002 and 1999.

Today, the 1920-S is recognized as the third rarest issue in the series, trailing only the 1907 Rolled Edge and the 1933. Interestingly, the 1920-S has proven to be a far scarcer coin than the 1930-S; a date with which it was historically paired. But third-party grading has shown that the 1920-S is actually not the rarest San Francisco eagle in Gem Uncirculated. This honor belongs to the 1913-S. And another date in the series, the 1911-D, is comparable in rarity to the 1920-S in Gem, if not even a bit rarer.

IV. 1921 Double Eagle

The fourth and final coin in our discussion of 20th century gold issues is the rarest, although it is not necessarily the best known. Although some experts might disagree, I would rank the 1921 as the rarest Philadelphia double eagle of this design. Unlike its closest competitor the 1932, the 1921 is most often seen in the AU55 to MS61 range and it is extremely rare in MS64 and above.

The true rarity of this date was not known to the early generation of St. Gaudens double eagle collectors. Back in the day, the issues that were most actively sought were the mintmarked coins from the mid-1920’s. But hundreds of these were eventually located in Europe and in all grades below MS64; most of these coins are now only moderately scarce. Unlike dates such as the 1924-D, 1925-S and 1926-S, the 1921 was not exported to Europe. The “story behind the story” of the 1921 is very interesting and the true rarity of this date can be better understood when this is discussed.

Two things conspired to make the 1921 double eagle a rare coin. The first was that most of the mint’s production capacity and efforts in 1921 went towards silver dollars. Millions of Morgan Dollars were produced after a near-two decade hiatus and these were followed by the new Peace Dollar which was a complex, hard to produce High Relief design. Secondly, the United States economy in 1921 was going through a post-World War One slump which would continue until the middle part of the decade. Few gold coins were circulating in the early 1920’s and there was not a great deal of demand for double eagles in 1921. As a result, many of the 528,500 1921 double eagles that were struck were melted.

In addition to being rare because of mass meltings, this issue is rare because of the way it was produced. The 1921 is among the worst struck St. Gaudens double eagles and it is generally seen with poor luster. This shoddy level of workmanship meant that most examples were of inferior quality before they were produced. Coupled with the fact that the survivors tend to show heavy marks from rough handling and copious hairlines from numismatic abuse, the 1921 is among the rarest dates of this type in the higher Uncirculated grades.

It is likely that somewhere in the area of 60-80 examples are known. The PCGS and NGC population figures are both inflated with the AU58 and MS62 numbers showing the greatest number of resubmissions due to attempts to garner upgrades. The 1921 becomes an extremely rare coin in MS63 and above. There are probably no more than four to six known that grade MS63 or higher.

In 2005, I had the honor of handling the finest known 1921 double eagle. At Heritage’s Morse sale, my ex-partner and I purchased a PCGS MS66 example for $1,092,500. At the same sale, an MS65 example sold for $805,000 while and MS64 realized $402,500. Today, all three of these coins have been placed in prominent collections where they will, no doubt, remain for many years.

If any other high grade 1921 double eagles become available for sale, I would expect to see them sell for record prices. This is one 20th century issue whose rarity can not be disputed and it seems highly unlikely that any hoard or accumulations of this date are going to appear at any time in the future.

St. Gaudens 100th Anniversary

Next year marks the 100th anniversary of the introduction of Augustus St. Gaudens incomparable Indian Head eagle and double eagle designs. Assuming that this is an anniversary that will be met with much fanfare (and accompanying numismatic promotion) how can the savvy collector or investor take advantage of this? In my opinion, it would seem that the most obvious target for a promotion would be the High Relief double eagle. The reasons are obvious: its the first year of issue for the largest gold denomination, it’s a gorgeous design and a popular low mintage coin that, while scarce, can be accumulated in a large enough quantity to promote. This is a great theory except for one flaw: High Reliefs have been actively promoted for the last two or three years and are at historic all-time price highs.

But does this mean that High Reliefs are not a good investment at this point in time? If I were buying a High Relief strictly as an investment, I think I’d look at it as a very short term hold—like maybe a year or so. One of the nice things about these coins is that they tend to have very tight buy/sell spreads and even if your coin does not appreciate much in value, you’ll probably have minimal downside. From a long term standpoint, I’d probably pass on a High Relief and wait until prices come down.

How about the “regular relief” 1907 Saint—do these have a good future from an investment standpoint? I would say that yes, they do. But I wouldn’t mess with them in grades lower than MS65 due to the fact that they are very common. In MS66 I think this variety is a good value and an MS67 is a great addition to your collection if you can find one.

The Indian Head eagles are a very intriguing group of coins. There are three varieties known: the Rolled Edge, The Wire Edge and the No Motto.

The Rolled Edge is, in theory, a regular issue even though only 48 are believed to have been struck. This is one of the most attractive United States gold issues and it is going to cost you over $200,000 for an MS64 example.

A coin that is also attractive but a little less rare is the Wire Edge 1907 eagle. It has an original mintage of just 500. Curiously, this rare coin hasn’t seen much in the way of promotion in the past few years and, unlike its counterpart the 1907 High Relief double eagle, it has remained pretty flat (pun intended…) from a price standpoint. I am a big fan of the Wire Edge $10 in grades from MS63 to MS66 and I think this issue will see a big price increase in the next few years.

What about the more plebian 1907 No Motto eagle—will this issue be promoted and will it see price increases? I would say yes on both accounts. I’m sure you’ll see lower end Uncirculated coins peddled on a mass-market scale. I would stick to examples that grade MS64 and above. I really like this coin in MS66 and MS67 as it is a short-lived two year type and it is an extremely attractive coin in higher grades.

So, getting back to our original question, how can the investor best capitalize on what may be a 100th anniversary craze for the 1907 St. Gaudens eagles and double eagles? The way I see it, there are four ways of reacting:

    Go a bit crazy and buy a nice High Relief and a Wire Edge. Even if they don’t show strong short-term appreciation, you’ll still own two very liquid blue chip coins that will be cornerstones of your collection.

    React with moderation and buy nice MS64 to MS66 examples of the 1907 “regular issue” eagles and double eagles. Again, you’ll own two neat coins which you’ll enjoy.

    Do nothing and grumble about yet another pesky coin promotion.

    Decide to beat the crowd to the next promotion: the 100th anniversary of the Bela Lyon Pratt design Indian Head quarter eagle and half eagle. A nice matched set of MS64 or MS65 coins might make a great way to welcome in 2008.

Fab Five St. Gaudens Double Eagles

For many people, the name the Fab Five refers to the starting players for the famous University of Michigan basketball team in the early 1990’s who played for the national championship in 1992 and again in 1993. But for the collector of United States gold coinage, this term refers endearingly to the five St. Gaudens double eagles produced between 1929 and 1932. The Fab Five are, more specifically, the 1929, 1930, 1930-S, 1931-D and 1932 double eagles. All of these are far rarer than their mintage figures would suggest. Recent research has shown that most of the late date Saints were never released for circulation and that a great majority were subsequently melted.

So what’s the story behind the Fab Five and why have they become so popular with collectors?

Other than the catchy marketing name, these coins have a lot going for them. As I mentioned above, all five are quite rare. But unlike a number of the other rare issues in the popular St. Gaudens series (such as the 1920-S, 1921, 1924-S, 1925-S and the 1926-D) the Fab Five tend to come very nice when offered for sale. In fact, you will rarely see an example of the Fab Five in grades below MS63. All of these dates tend to come with very good luster, sharp strikes and rich multi-hued coloration. They are popular because they are truly rare coins that come with really good eye appeal. And they are in demand because they are the last dates in this series you can (legally) own…for now.

The rarity levels of the Fab Five have often been misunderstood. In my opinion, the correct order of availability from rarest to most common is as follows: 1930-S, 1931-D, 1929, 1932 and 1931.

The 1930-S is easily the rarest of these, both in terms of overall and high grade levels. There are probably no more than three or four dozen known with most in the MS62 to MS64 range. There were two MS66 examples in the Morse collection which sold for $253,000 and $207,000, respectively, in 2005. I am aware of two or possibly three other examples that grade MS66.

Because of its status as the only Denver coin in the Fab Five, the 1931-D is very popular. The population figures at both PCGS and NGC are greatly inflated by resubmissions and this date is actually very rare in any grade. There are two known in MS66: an example in the Duckor collection and the Morse 11/05: 6713, Thain Price coin that is now in the Kutasi collection.

The 1929 is a greatly misunderstood date. Its population figures in MS63 and MS64 are tremendously inflated by resubmissions. In Gem, this is among the rarest of the Fab Five and there are only three in MS66 including a piece in the Duckor collection.

The 1932 is a curious issue. A greater percentage of the surviving coins are known in high grades (i.e. MS63 to MS65) than for the other Fab Five issues. When available, this issue tends to have excellent color and shows fewer deep marks than the other dates of this era but the luster, which has a semi-matte texture, is not as flashy as on the other Philadelphia pieces. There are six pieces graded MS66 by PCGS and this includes an example from the Morse collection that sold for $138,000 in November 2005.

The most obtainable Fab Five issue is the 1931 of which perhaps as many as 125-150 pieces are currently known. This is another date that, like the 1932, tends to come with excellent eye appeal when it is offered for sale. Most pieces I have seen grade MS64 to MS65 but MS66 examples are very rare with just eight graded by PCGS. There is also a single example known in MS67 which sold for $264,500 in the Heritage November 2005 Morse collection auction.

As the popularity of the St. Gaudens series has increased over the past few years, prices for these five dates have risen dramatically. In most cases, they have doubled in the past three to five years but this is understandable when one considers the high level of demand and the small supply. I expect the Fab Five to remain some of the most popular 20th century United States gold issues in the coming years.

1907 High Relief Double Eagle

If there is a more popular United States gold coin than the 1907 High Relief double eagle, I’ve yet to encounter it. This is a coin that just about everyone aspires to own. It is beautiful, historic and, in its own way, extremely desirable. The story behind this issue is interesting. I won’t go into the full detail here (it would take many pages to be properly told). Theodore Roosevelt hated the Liberty Head design and secretly hired the famous sculptor Augustus St. Gaudens to redesign the larger gold denominations. St. Gaudens produced what is now regarded as easily the most spectacular imagery ever seen on a United States pattern issue (the Ultra High Relief of 1907).

This design proved to be impossible to strike and it incurred the wrath of the Mint Engraver Charles Barber who felt slighted that an outsider was hired to design a United States coin. He eventually “improved” the design in such a way that the final product in 1907 barely resembled the majestic Ultra High Relief that St. Gaudens produced.

The “normal” High Relief coins also proved to be very difficult to strike and, of course, met with strong opposition from Barber. There were 11,250 examples produced before the design was changed again later in the year. A remarkably high percentage of these coins have survived. PCGS shows over 4,000 graded as of the middle of 2006 and, in my opinion, there are as many as 5,000-6,000 High Reliefs known.

There are two varieties of High Reliefs. The more common is the so-called Wire Edge. The Wire Edge coins were the first High Reliefs struck and they show excess metal on the edge which produced a sort of “fin.” This problem was later corrected and the final High Reliefs struck are known as “Flat Edge” coins. In my experience, the Flat Edge coins are about four or five times scarcer than the Wire Edge coins. The Flat Edge coins sometimes bring a 5 to 10% premium but, more often than not, they do not command a premium. I think they are excellent value, especially if priced as a “common date.”

NGC has designated a number of High Reliefs as Proofs. While there are unquestionably such things as Proof High Reliefs, it is my opinion that the coins marked as such by NGC are NOT actual Proofs. The coins in NGC proof holders clearly have a number of raised die swirls on the surfaces and are probably among the first pieces struck. But they have the same edge as a “normal” High Relief and the true Proofs have a noticeably different edge with different shaped and positioned edge lettering.

In recent years, prices have shot up for High Reliefs. This has been the result of a number of well-managed promotions. But High Reliefs, if you think about it, are coins that sell themselves and it is inevitable that in a strong coin market, they are the sort of coin that is likely to show a strong level of appreciation. New collectors and investors are always attracted to High Reliefs and I expect that prices for these coins in MS60 and higher will continue to be strong for some time.

When buying a High Relief, there are a few things I would suggest you look for. First and foremost is coloration. An original, untampered-with example should display very rich green-gold or yellow-gold color. Look for a piece that has even color with similar hues on the obverse and the reverse.

You should also avoid pieces that show obvious friction on the relief details but you need to understand that because of the nature of this coin’s design, most examples do show some “rub” on Liberty’s and the eagle’s breasts. Finally, you need to look carefully at the surfaces and make certain that the High Relief you are being offered does not have any serious marks or prominent abrasions. This is a coin that is common enough that if you do not like what you see, be patient and wait for the right example.

Characteristics of An Ideal Coin Collector

After attending the recent Heritage sale of Dr. Steve Duckor’s Indian Head eagles, I was invited to have dinner with Steve and a group of elite-level collectors. The sale was a smashing success with the final prices realized at least thirty to forty percent higher than I imagined they would be. As we sat at dinner and celebrated Dr. Duckor’s success, one of the individuals at the table made a great comment: “Steve Duckor is the poster child for coin collectors.” I thought long and hard about this comment and suddenly realized that it was, in fact, completely true. Steve Duckor, in addition to being a great guy, is a great collector. There are, in my opinion, five factors that make him a truly special numismatist.

    He specializes in one or two areas and doesn’t wander outside his comfort zone. Steve Duckor specializes in Barber coinage (dimes and halves) and 20th century gold (Indian Head eagles and Saints). By keeping his focus on these areas, he has been able to build great sets and become far more knowledgeable than most dealers. Collectors with a clearly defined focus are unquestionably more successful (and probably happier) than those with a scattered approach.

    He found a “look” and built his collection(s) around it. I had the chance to view Steve’s collections last year and was stunned at how standardized the appearance of many of his coins was. As an example, many of his Barber coins had dazzling peripheral coloration framing frosty centers. His Saint Gaudens double eagle set contains many of the most attractively toned gold coins I have ever seen. When these sets hit the market they will bring record prices because the coins have fantastic overall eye appeal that improves as you see all the coins together.

    He established a strong relationship with a great dealer. Steve was lucky to find David Akers early in his career and this enabled him to not only have access to some great coins but to have access to a great mind. Dave Akers loves Barber halves, Indian Head eagles and St. Gaudens double eagles and his enthusiasm for these series rubbed off on Steve Duckor.

    He was patient and held his coins for the long-term. Many of today’s collectors sell their collections literally as soon as they are finished. This mindset has been fueled by two forces: a strong market (which allows many collectors to realize big profits in a short period) and aggressive marketing by auction firms (which pushes many collectors to sell even if they aren’t necessarily ready to do so). Steve Duckor owned many of his Indian Head eagles for two decades and he realized enormous profits on many of these long-term purchases.

    He is a nice guy and he slowly built a cult following among other collectors and dealers. Steve Duckor is not only one of the nicest guys I’ve ever met, he’s one of the canniest. His coins have a mystique surrounding them not only because they are superb but because they are owned by Steve Duckor. This is a case where a pedigree adds a considerable amount of value.

Will you be the next Steve Duckor? Perhaps not, but I would suggest that by following these five rules (and buying great coins) you have a chance to be.

Market Premium Factor (MPF)

Although I can’t take credit for inventing the concept of Market Premium Factor (MPF), it is something that I have discussed before and find very interesting. The basic concept of MPF is that in a specific series of coins, certain dates trade for premiums over the common (or basal) issues. An interesting series to explore the concept of MPF is Indian Head eagles. In this series, basically any coin not dated 1926 or 1932 (the two basal issues) is considerably scarcer than a basal issue. However, until very recently most of these dates sold for little more (if any) than the two common issues. A date like the 1912 with a PCGS population of fewer than 500 in MS63 and fewer than 175 in MS64 and above did not command much of a premium over a 1932 with a population of over 10,000 in MS63 and over 5,000 in MS64 and above.

Why could dates like the 1910, 1910-D, 1911, 1912, 1914 and 1915 be purchased for virtually no premium over the common dates like the 1926 and 1932? Because until recently, the Indian Head eagle series was not seeing many collectors putting together date sets. These coins were trading primarily as type coins and this meant that no one really cared about what date they were purchasing.

The MPF for a series changes when it becomes popular. Suddenly, Indian Head eagles have become more popular. There are not necessarily a ton of new collectors putting complete sets together. But there is enough new interest in the series that even a neophyte can recognize the fact that a 1910-D eagle in MS64 is much scarcer than a 1932 in the same grade. When this occurs, the premium factor between the basal issues and the slightly scarcer issues increases. Suddenly a coin like the 1910-D eagle is now bringing 10-20% more than a 1932.

There are still a number of series that do not have fully developed MPF’s. In the St. Gaudens double eagle series, there are at least a dozen issues which sell for “type coin” prices which are considerably scarcer than the basal issues such as the 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927 and 1928.

For the savvy collector or investor a key to making a good return on your investment is to identify coins that are scarce but which do not sell for a significant premium. If and when this series becomes popular and collectors start paying attention to specific dates, you might well have some nice profits.

San Francisco Gold Coinage

Having just returned from a nice long weekend in lovely San Francisco, I found myself often* asking the question “why doesn’t such a great town with such an indisputable numismatic history have a more active collecting base?” I can think of at least four reasons why San Francisco gold coins lag their fellow branch mints’ popularity.

    No one has written a book on these coins. Without seeming too egotistical, I think that my books on Charlotte, Dahlonega, Carson City and New Orleans books have been real shots in the arm for each of these mints. If and when someone writes an accessible, concise book about San Francisco gold coins, this will remedy a century of neglect. I won’t be writing this book. Will anyone step up to the plate?

    Unlike the Southern gold coinage, production of San Francisco issues dragged on for nearly a century and entailed denominations ranging from gold dollars to double eagles. There are simply too many coins for most collectors to keep track of and they come in too wide a range of size. If I were the Czar of San Francisco Gold Collecting, I would try to market these issues in three age brackets: the early years (pre-1880 issues), the middle years (1880-1906) and the late years (1908-1930).

    Continuing on the same track as Reason #2, there are too many different types of San Francisco coins to get all-encompassing collections started. The individual who collects St. Gaudens double eagles is unlikely to collect gold dollars. This seems to be a case of “never the twain shall meet” and because of this, San Francisco gold coins continue to have small pockets of cult interest that never merge together to form bigger interest groups.

    Despite not being very popular many San Francisco gold issues are already very highly priced. This makes it harder to market them as undervalued sleepers. In a related vein, many of the early issues are very rare in all grades. Very rare coins are hard to promote because they are hard to find in any quantity.

* = OK, so I’m exaggerating here. I actually didn’t think about business or coins at all the whole weekend but on the plane ride back the subject did come up once or twice…