As 2022 comes to a close, it’s time for me to write my annual Coin Market Review. I’m going to alter the format slightly in an attempt to cover more aspects of what proved to be a strong, but complex, year.

After a terrific 2021, the 2022 coin market started strong but around September a number of areas saw softening. This was the result of collectors becoming more discerning with the price levels in specific series which had seen very sharp upward price spikes since 2018.

Let’s take a look at a number of popular areas in the US gold coin market and examine their performance in 2022.

DAHLONEGA GOLD:

This was clearly among the strongest areas in the 2022 coin market. After years of an undersupply of good coins in all grade and price ranges, a reasonably large number of nice coins became available to collectors at a variety of price points. Collector grade coins (priced in the $2,500 to $5,000 range) were very strong, as were important high grade rarities (an 1854-D $3 graded MS62 by PCGS/CAC set a world-record for any Dahlonega coin when it brought $528,000 in Stack’s Bowers August sale of the John Sykes Collection). Another important factor was the Fairmont Hoard which introduced dozens of nice, original Dahlonega half eagles into the market. It should also be noted that the forthcoming 2023 edition of my D mint book will no doubt further increase demand.

Breaking down the market for Dahlonega coins by denomination, I observed the following in 2022:

Dollars: Not especially strong except for very high grade pieces.
Quarter Eagles: Very strong for all dates and grades.
Three Dollars: Extremely strong especially for CAC approved pieces in all grades.
Half Eagles: Very strong save for low end scrubby pieces.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 9+

CHARLOTTE GOLD:

For most of the 1990-2010 era, Charlotte gold mirrored its Dahlonega counterpart. This changed around 15 years ago, and today Dahlonega is more popular and higher priced. This leads me to believe that Charlotte gold is somewhat undervalued in late 2022. What would jumpstart this market? The obvious answer is more demand (through more new collectors), and perhaps my forthcoming 2024 Charlotte gold book revision will accomplish this.

Breaking down the market for Charlotte coins by denomination, I observed the following in 2022:

Dollars: Not hot in any grade.
Quarter Eagles: Not hot with the exception of nice examples of the 1838-C and 1839-C Classic Head issues.
Half Eagles: Lukewarm but with some increased demand beginning to occur on CAC approved coins in the $4,000-25,000 range.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 4+

NEW ORLEANS GOLD:

There were some exceptional New Orleans half eagles, eagles, and double eagles in the three Fairmont auction sales held by Stack’s Bowers in 2022. The most significant coins were the eagles sold as part of the so-called “Hendricks Set” sold in April. Record-setting prices included $72,000 for an AU53 PCGS/CAC 1841-O, $42,000 for a PCGS MS61 1843-O, $44,400 for an MS61 1844-O graded by PCGS, $40,800 for a PCGS AU58 1846/’5’-O, $43,200 for a PCGS/CAC AU58 1849-O, $51,600 for a PCGS/CAC MS61 1853-O, and $48,000 for an AU58 1857-O graded by PCGS/CAC.

**1857-O $5.00 PCGS EF45, Fairmont Collection**

Then, there was “reality” or the everyday coin market. The few nice non-Fairmont New Orleans gold coins which passed through my inventory in 2022 barely had time to see the sights in the Rose City. With the exception of gold dollars and double eagles, this was a strong area this year. The strongest areas were half eagles in collector grades (VF, EF, and lower-end AU) and Condition Census quality No Motto eagles.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 6+

LIBERTY HEAD DOUBLE EAGLES:

This complex series includes so many niche markets that it is hard to make sweeping, definitive statements about it as a whole. In 2022, as in the last five+ years, there were strong areas in the series and there were weak areas.

The Fairmont Hoard continues to have a strong impact on many issues as collectors approached rare dates in high grades with trepidation. My observation is that the weakest area in this market as of the end of 2022 is better date New Orleans issues (with the exception of the 1854-O and the 1856-O which have barely traded since 2019, and the 1879-O which continues to be in strong demand).

Carson City double eagles will also be discussed below, but my general observation is that after showing extremely strong levels of demand in 2019-2021 they hit price resistance beginning around the summer of 2022.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 5

EARLY GOLD:

All three denominations of Early Gold saw strong demand in 2022. I would temper this slightly by saying that buyers in this market segment have become fussier than ever and a very interesting trend has occurred. In half eagles, nice PCGS/CAC AU58 Bust Right and Bust Left coins are now worth more than decent non-CAC PCGS MS62s, while nice PCGS/CAC AU55 examples of these designs are now worth more than MS61 non-CAC coins. I don’t expect this trend to reverse any time soon.

An area which showed incredible strength in 2022 was seven figure rarities, and we saw a number of record prices for early gold in 2022. Three obvious examples were the Bass 1821 half eagle graded PR65CAM by PCGS/CAC which brought $4,620,000 in September, the sensational PCGS/CAC PR67CAM 1827 half eagle that sold for $4,080,00 in August, and the Bass PCGS PR63 1804 eagle which was bid up to $2,280,000 in September.

It should be pointed out that early gold which is off-quality was weak in 2022, and there is no indication that it won’t remain in low demand in 2023.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 6

CARSON CITY GOLD:

This has been perhaps the single strongest performer in the US gold market since 2018. In 2022, we saw this market change with some issues meeting price resistance. As an example, an AU55 1880-CC half eagle was a $4,000 coin in 2018. By 2021, it had increased in value to $7,000. It is not a scarce coin (PCGS has graded 56 at this level with another 60 finer) and while it makes sense at $4,000, at $7,000 it seems pricey. The PCGS Guide is way too aggressive with its current valuation ($8,500 in AU55) and I can easily see this becoming a $4,000 coin again.

Really nice examples of really rare CC half eagles and eagles continued to show strength in 2022 and I think this will continue into 2023. Anything dated 1870-CC remains in strong demand (see my comments below on the 1870-CC $20), as do any Condition Census or near-Condition Census pieces struck during the 1870s.

Prices for high grade Carson City double eagles reached all-time levels during the first half of 2022 with the so-called “Hendricks Collection” sale by Stack’s Bowers being almost certainly the apex of this niche market. There were numerous CC $20s which sold for $100,000 in this auction, and I can’t see these prices being sustainable in 2023.

Four 1870-CC double eagles sold at auction in 2022 and prices were not as strong as expected for three of these; the sole exception being the nice PCGS/CAC EF40 which brought $810,000 in Stack’s Bowers April auction. I expect prices for this issue to continue to soften in 2023.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 6

PROOF GOLD:

In the initial part of the Covid price run-up, Proof gold wasn’t the price leader than one would have expected. This began to change in 2021 and continued through 2022. Prices for virtually all PR63 and finer issues saw price increases this year. Leading the way were high denominations ($10s and $20s) and very rare early Proofs.

Common date PR64 CAM Liberty Head double eagles which had a PCGS Price Guide value of $72,500 in early 2021 shot up to $125,000 by the end of 2022, while PR65CAM levels rose from $125,000 in the Price Guide to $230,000 by the end of 2022. In my experience, these levels are too high but I sold three different PCGS/CAC PR65CAM or DCAM Proofs for close to $200,000 each in 2022. PR64s had languished in the $45,000-55,000 range seemingly forever, and today these are hard to locate at less than $90,000.

Relatively good values still exist in Proof gold. There are Proof gold dollars with mintages as low as 20 which can be purchased in PR63 to PR64 for as little as $10,000, while some much better dates in the Liberty Head quarter eagles series can be found from time to time in the $20,000-30,000 range. The same is true with low mintage Proof half eagles from the 1870s and the 1880s in the $25,000-35,000 range.

While prices for Gem Proof $20 Libs in 65 and higher seem unsustainable, I feel that the Proof gold market should remain very strong in 2023.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 8+

TERRITORIAL GOLD:

The sale of the Buffalo Bayou Collection by Heritage in their January 2022 auction represented the first significant offering in this market segment for a number of years. The quality of this collection was spotty with some really nice coins mixed in with some off-quality pieces. (This is typical for Territorial collections as so many rare or very rare issues are all-but-unknown when it comes to nice quality).

Prices in this sale were extremely strong with numerous price records set. Due to its rarity and the infrequency of auction trades, we must rely on very small sample sizes when it comes to determining accurate values. But demand for good quality Territorial gold appears to be strong as we enter 2023, and I would rate this as a strong area in the market.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 7

20th CENTURY US GOLD:

High-end PCGS/CAC and Registry Set quality Indian Head half eagles and eagles were strong in 2022. A good indication of this segment is always the two obvious Trophy Coins; the 1929 half eagle and the 1907 Wire Edge eagle.

**1907 Wire Edge $10.00 PCGS MS64 CAC, Old Green Holder**

It seemed like every time I looked at an auction, there were multiples 1929 half eagles but, surprisingly, “just” six sold at auction in 2022 with none finer than MS64. Prices held firm in spite of this barrage of coins. The 1907 saw 11 auction appearances in 2022 including the Bass PCGS/CAC MS66 which sold reasonably at $192,000, and a PCGS MS67 which brought $336,000 in July; the last APR for this grade was $240,000 in May 2020. On the whole, the $10 Indian series was very strong in 2022.

The St. Gaudens double eagle market had been jumpstarted by the record-smashing sale of the 1933 for close to $19 million in June 2021, and a number of high-end coins from the Bob Simpson set which were auctioned in August brought extraordinary prices. Some of the more notable were a 1909-D in PCGS/CAC MS66+ at $480,000, a PCGS/CAC MS65+ at $192,000, a PCGS MS65 1920-S at $564,000, a PCGS/CAC MS67+ 1924 at $90,000, a 1924-S in PCGS MS67 at $930,000, and most remarkably, a common 1928 in an uncommon PCGS/CAC MS67+ at $204,000. And, let’s not forget the sale of an MS66 1927-D in PCGS MS66 for a record $4,440,000.

There were a number of very deep-pocketed collectors swimming in the deep end of the Saint market in the first half of 2022. It will be interesting to see if levels can be sustained through 2023.

2022 Heat Level on a 1-10 Scale: 8 (for high-end PCGS/CAC St. Gaudens $20’s, 10+)

My 2023 PREDICTIONS:

Economic news will play a large factor in determining the overall strength of the coin market in 2023. If we enter a Recession, it is likely that the middle-end of the market will suffer most (in the world of rare date gold, this means coins priced at $5,000-25,000+).

Hard-core collectors who buy nice sub-$5,000 coins will likely still be active buyers, especially if they can buy a coin which was $4500 in early 2022 for $3750 in mid-2023. Buyers of very expensive Trophy Coins are likely to be less impacted by a possible Recession, and I would think they will still compete for one-of-a-kind items.

I think it is worth looking into a point I just made. Many good collectors have sat-out much of the recent run-up in rare gold prices as they couldn’t embrace the new price levels. I can totally see their point. But it is important to realize that a coin like an 1853-C half eagle in PCGS/CAC MS63 which was essentially unchanged in value between 1999 and 2020 was grossly undervalued and now that it is the sort of coin on more people’s radar, it is unlikely to recede back to pre-2020 price levels.

I think it will continue to be difficult to find really neat US gold coins at virtually all price levels just because the supply can’t keep up with the demand. Unless the US economy totally melts down, you are likely to have to pay too much for that crusty, original No Motto eagle or Type Two gold dollar which you’ve been searching years for.

What are your thoughts and predictions about 2022 and 2023? Please leave your comments below.

And please don’t hesitate to contact me directly at dwn@ont.com if you have specific questions about an area of the market which I didn’t discuss in this article.

Blog

2022: What Was Hot, and What Was Not