A Fresh 1864-S Half Eagle

If I had to pick one single Liberty Head gold coin which would generate a whirlwind of interest if posted on my website, it would likely be the 1864-S half eagle. This is the rarest collectible half eagle from this mint (after the ultra-rare 1854-S), and it is clearly one of the four or five rarest gold coins ever struck at the San Francisco mint. In my estimation, there are around 30 examples known with many in the VF-EF grade range.

This coin is an old friend which I sold to its present owner around 15 years ago. The collector who owns the coin, graded EF45 by NGC, decided he wanted to put together a set of San Francisco half eagles. I told him he should start with the keys first, and for his purposes, the 1864-S was clearly going to be the stopper. I found this lovely example a few months later and it’s been off the market for the better part of two decades.

I don’t have all my old records handy, but if I recall correctly he paid around $10,000 for the coin. Today, it is worth four or five times this amount.

After many years of inactivity, the collector who owns this coin has decided to resume assembling his set of San Francisco half eagles. The beauty of his listening to my advice is that he already owns many of the keys and he doesn’t have to worry about the stopper—the 1864-S—as he owns this beautiful example.

This is one of the few original, uncleaned 1864-S half eagles which exist. This piece has pleasing lemon-gold and rich rose color on the obverse and the reverse, and the surfaces are far less abraded than usual for the issue. The obverse stars show flatness at the centers which is typical for the issue; even the single example known in Uncirculated (an amazing PCGS MS65+) shows this weakness of strike.

For many years, the 1864-S half eagle was an unloved issue with only a small number of collectors who appreciated its grade and absolute rarity. Today, this coin is very popular and I think its level of demand is only going to increase as San Francisco gold coins become more and more avidly collected.

Do you want to put together a set of San Francisco half eagles? I would be happy to assist you, and am available to discuss the process by phone (214-675-9897) or via email at dwn@ont.com.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

San Francisco Gold Coins with Numismatic Significance

If you read the coin descriptions on my website you will note that I often refer to a coin having what I term “numismatic significance.”  I’d like to explain and discuss this term, and then specifically apply it to gold coins from San Francisco.

The term “numismatic significance” is pretty straightforward. It refers to a coin which has indisputable importance for a collector. What are some of the ways in which this significance might manifest itself?

• first year of issue

• one year, or very limited, period of issuance

• very low mintage figure

• the rarest collectible issue of a popular type

Let's take a look at some of the San Francisco gold coins which, in my opinion, have numismatic significance.

1. 1854-S Gold Dollar

The production of regular issue coins began at the San Francisco mint in 1854. Five denominations were made: the gold dollar, the quarter eagle and half eagle, the eagle, and the double eagle. Two of these (the quarter eagle and half eagle) are exceedingly rare. The most common of these first-year types is the 1854-S dollar.

A total of 14,632 gold dollars were struck at the San Francisco mint in 1854, and this issue is common and affordable in all circulated grades. There are as many as four or five dozen known in Uncirculated, with most in the MS60 to MS62 range. In MS63 this issue is scarce, and it is quite rare in MS64. There are two or three Gems known and the finest is a PCGS MS65+ in the Duckor collection, which was formerly in the Pittman collection.

I like this issue for a number of reasons. Obviously, it is a first-year-of-issue and it is also a one-year type; it is the only gold dollar from this mint which employs the Type One design. It tends to be very well made and it is probably the single best produced of all the gold dollars from this mint. If you can find a nice MS62 at the current going price of $4,000-5,000 I think this is excellent value and it seems like an issue with real upside potential.

2. 1856-S Gold Dollar

The decision to scrap the Type One design and replace it with the Indian Head Type Two design was not one of the mint’s shining successes. The design proved challenging to strike given the too-small size of the portrait and its placement opposite the highest spot on the reverse. It was quickly scrapped, but not before the San Francisco mint made 24,600 Type Two gold dollars dated 1856-S.

As with the 1854-S, this is an issue with two important items of numismatic significance. It is a first-year type and it is a one-year design. The same holds true for the 1855-C, 1855-D and 1855-O dollars, and all three issues are popular for the same reasons.

The 1856-S gold dollar is easily located in all circulated grades and with as many as three dozen known in Uncirculated, it can be found in the MS60 to MS62 range as well. It is very scarce in properly graded MS63, and very rare in MS64. I have never seen a piece which I graded MS65, and the finest I am aware of is a PCGS MS64 owned by Steve Duckor, which has been approved by CAC.

While values have increased for this date over the last decade, I still regard it as good overall value. A nice AU55 to AU58 can still be purchased for around $5,000, and $12,500 will buy you a very solid MS62.

3. 1870-S Gold Dollar

I wasn’t going to add a third gold dollar to this list but there has always been something intriguing to me about this issue. The last San Francisco gold dollar had been struck in 1860 and production of branch issues ended in 1861 with the striking of the 1861-D. Yet for some reason, the mint decided to strike 3,000 gold dollars at the San Francisco mint in 1870. The uniqueness of this issue and its status as the final branch mint gold dollar from any mint gives the 1870-S dollar its numismatic significance. In addition, the 1870-S date is magical as it serves as a connection to the unique 1870-S three dollar.

The 1870-S dollar has an interesting grade distribution for its surviving population which is totally unlike the other four Type Three dollars from San Francisco. It is seen more often in Uncirculated than in circulated grades and there are actually some nice pieces known. I am aware of at least five or six Gems including a single PCGS MS66 and a PCGS MS65+ owned by Steve Duckor.

The 1870-S is probably a bit overvalued compared to the scarcer 1857-S, 1858-S, 1859-S, and 1860-S but it is an excellent value given its “coolness” factor. A nice MS62 is currently valued at around $5,000 while an MS63 is worth in the area of $7,500+.

4. 1856-S Quarter Eagle

The 1854-S is the first quarter eagle from this mint and it is a coin with great numismatic significance. But, it is extremely rare and very expensive and, for most readers of this article, it is not a coin likely to be added to their collection in the foreseeable future. This makes the 1856-S, the next quarter eagle from this mint (none were produced in 1855) the first-year-of-issue for most collectors.

Mintages for gold coins in San Francisco were relatively high in 1856 and 1857 due to strong demand, and 72,120 1856-S quarter eagle were made. There are a few hundred known today including a few Gems. The finest known 1856-S quarter eagle is a magnificent PCGS MS67 from the S.S. Central America which brought $46,000 in Christie’s 12/00 auction. It is the best San Francisco quarter eagle of any date which I have ever seen.

This issue doesn’t have the numismatic significance which many of the other coins on this list have. But it is the earliest available date of this denomination from San Francisco and this makes it a tangible relic of the Gold Rush.

5. 1855-S Three Dollar

Three dollar gold pieces were produced at the San Francisco for just five years and one of these—the 1870-S—is unique. I think all of these San Francisco threes have numismatic significance but the date which I give the highest degree of multi-level demand to is the 1855-S.

The 1855-S is the first year of issue for San Francisco threes. Only 6,600 were made and of these as many as 400-500 are known, mostly in the EF40 to AU50 range. In higher grades, this issue is very rare and it is likely that the 1855-S is the only three dollar gold piece from this mint that actually saw heavy service in commerce. I am aware of three or four Uncirculated examples (plus a unique Proof) with the finest of these being a raw MS63 to MS64 in the Bass collection, currently housed in the ANA Museum.

The 1855-S can be lumped with the better-known 1854-O and 1854-D three dollar gold pieces as all are first-year-of-issues from the branch mint. The 1855-S, however, is not a one-year type as are its southern counterparts. That said, it is still a coin with real numismatic significance and it is a major rarity in Mint State.

6. 1864-S Half Eagle

The excessively rare 1854-S is the half eagle which even the most well-heeled specialist in San Francisco gold coinage is likely to never own. The next rarest issue is the 1864-S and this is a coin with clear numismatic significance.

Only 3,888 were produced and this is the second lowest mintage of any half eagle from this mint after the 1854-S which had a run of only 268 pieces. There are an estimated 25-35 known in all grades including a Gem PCGS MS65+ which sold for $178,250 as Bass II: 1150 in October 1999.

The first really nice 1864-S half eagle to be available in close to a decade was recently sold as Heritage 3/14: 30328. Graded EF45 by NGC, it brought a strong $79,913; the same coin had last realized $31,050 in a July 2004 auction.

The numismatic significance of the 1864-S half eagle is a bit more obtuse than some of the other issues on this list, but it is perhaps the rarest coin listed here. The 1864-S is, along with the 1864-S eagle, the rarest obtainable gold coin from this mint. Its low mintage figure and Civil War issuance makes it appealing to a wider group of collectors than other rare San Francisco half eagles and it is a coin which I find greatly desirable.

7. 1866-S No Motto and With Motto Half Eagles

In 1866, the motto IN GOD WE TRUST was added to the reverse of all United States silver and gold coins in which this design element could fit. The 1866-S No Motto and With Motto gold issues are known for half eagles, eagles and double eagles and these are popular with collectors for a variety of reasons. For reasons of space, we are going to focus on just the two half eagles but the comments made here apply equally to the other two denominations.

The reason for the two distinct varieties of 1866-S half eagle is decidedly low-tech. There were 9,000 1866-S half eagles with the old No Motto reverse produced before word could get to the San Francisco mint to changeover to the new With Motto design; 34,920 of the latter were struck.

The 1866-S No Motto half eagle is a bit less scarce than one might assume. But many of the 60-80 which exist are very well worn and this date is quite rare in properly graded AU. I have never seen a Mint State 1866-S No Motto half eagle and the finest known to me is a choice PCGS AU58 which brought $25,300 back in October 1999 as Bass II: 1155. The 1866-S With Motto, on the other hand, is rarer than its comparatively higher suggests. There are an estimated 70-90 known with a few more in EF and AU than its No Motto counterpart. But this date is also unknown in true Uncirculated (NGC has graded an MS61 which I feel is no better than AU58).

The 1866-S No Motto/With Motto gold coinage are the only transitional design pairs from the San Francisco mint. This makes these three sets numismatically significant and the rarity of the half eagles and eagles make higher grade assemblages extremely challenging.

8. 1930-S Eagle and Double Eagle

The 1930-S eagle and double eagle are the two final gold coins struck at the San Francisco mint. They are issues with a similar story: reasonably high mintages (96,000 for the former and 74,000 for the latter), almost none released for circulation, and extremely low survival rates.

The 1930-S is not only the last eagle made at the San Francisco mint, it is the only issue of this denomination made after 1920. Almost all of the original mintage was melted and of the 200-300 known, essentially all are Uncirculated. There are a number of Gems and the finest known is likely the Duckor/O’Neal PCGS MS67 which sold for $299,000 in Heritage’s January 2009 auction.

The San Francisco mint produced double eagles more actively in the 1920’s than they did eagles and the last issue prior to 1930 was the 1927-S. The 1930-S has the fourth lowest mintage of any St. Gaudens double eagle, but it is the rarest San Francisco issue and the rarest of the famous Fab Five late dates from this series. Probably no more than 60-70 are currently known, and nearly all are in Uncirculated and none appear to have been released by the Mint for general circulation. The Simpson Collection has a lovely PCGS MS66+ which is likely the finest known.

The 1930-S eagle and double eagle are coins which combine condition rarity with numismatic significance and they appeal to many collectors for these reasons.

9. 1861-S Paquet Reverse Double Eagle

A strong case can be made for terming this the rarest Type One double eagle from San Francisco (its only competitor is the 1866-S No Motto) and it is certainly an issue with multiple levels of demand. The Paquet reverse is noticeably different from the regular Longacre design with taller letters and a naked-eye “look” which is clear to even a neophyte collector.

The 1861-S Paquet was mostly unknown to collectors until the 1950’s when examples were located in Europe. It remains a very scarce coin although there are now an estimated 200-300 known, mostly in lower grades. I do not believe that a genuinely Uncirculated example is known, and I am aware of no more than two or three properly graded AU58 pieces.

For many years, this variety was undervalued and prices really only began to rise after it became well-publicized in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Values peaked around 2007-2008 then dropped, but have now climbed back. To own a really nice Paquet, you are looking at spending at least $75,000, and a Condition Census example is now worth upwards of $175,000-200,000.

I regard the 1861-S Paquet as the most numismatically significant double eagle from this mint and it is a coin whose level of demand in the Type One series is exceeded only by the rare 1854-O and 1856-O.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Ten Buyer's Tips for San Francisco Gold Coin Collectors

If you are a collector of San Francisco gold coins, there are a few buying tips I’d like to offer. These range from pretty basic to pretty savvy, and they can be applied (in some cases) to other series if San Francisco coins are not your particular cup of chai.

1. Don’t Pay Shipwreck Prices for non-Shipwreck Coins

It is an established fact in the market that coins from the major shipwrecks are worth a premium over non-shipwreck coins. This is especially true for S.S. Central America coins with low shipwreck populations. But this information can be misinterpreted and can cause a collector to overpay. Let me give you an example.

Recently, I was offered a decent quality AU58 1855-S double eagle by another dealer. As part of his sales pitch, he mentioned that an example had recently sold for $7,931; thus his coin, priced at $7,500, seemed like a good deal. What he conveniently failed to mention to me was that this auction price was for a coin pedigreed to the S.S. Central America and that the last non-SSCA coin had brought $5,288. Once I mentioned this, his reaction was a simple “oh…I forgot to mention that, huh?”

When you are figuring prices for S mint coins, especially Type One double eagles, the sales records for shipwreck coins have little bearing on non-shipwreck coins and vice versa.

2. Don’t Pay Full Shipwreck Prices for Re-Packaged Coins

The premiums that shipwreck coins sell for are packaging-dependent. In other words, an AU58 1855-S double eagle from the S.S. Central America is worth more (quite a bit more in fact) if it is in an original PCGS gold-foil holder than in an NGC holder. Why? Because in this instance, the coins from the SSCA were originally graded by PCGS, and collectors want them in their original packaging.

Another example: in 2013, three PCGS/CAC MS66 1857-S double eagles in their original gold-foil holders were sold at auction, and they brought $32,900, $32,900, and $33,030. Two NGC MS66 examples sold this year and they realized $17,625. Why? Because the market clearly realizes that these coins were formerly PCGS MS65’s and because they are no longer in their original holders.

3. Premium Quality San Francisco CAC Coins Can Be Worth Significant Premiums

As I have previously discussed, many San Francisco issues do not come nice, and it is likely that their CAC populations will be very low. Let me give you two quick examples.

The 1862-S half eagle is a very scarce date in all grades and it is seldom found choice and original. PCGS has graded 39, and CAC shows a current population of just two coins; an EF40 and an EF45. Now granted that many 1862-S half eagles in PCGS holders have not been sent to CAC, but the fact two only two have been approved (and none above EF45) indicates that this is an issue that is not seen with a nice, natural appearance.

As another example, let’s look at the 1862-S eagle; a date which is nearly as rare as its half eagle counterpart. PCGS has graded 45 examples and CAC shows a current population of just two: an EF45 and an AU55. Again, not all the PCGS coins have been sent to CAC, but my feeling is that the percentage of 1862-S eagles (and half eagles) with CAC approval will remain very small; probably less than 10% of the coins graded.

It seems to me that CAC approved examples of the 1862-S half eagle and eagle should be worth a fairly significant premium above their non-CAC counterparts.

4. How Do You Price Very Rare Date San Francisco Gold?

When it comes to rare/very rare San Francisco gold coinage, most published price guides are of little to no use. Auction prices are far more relevant, and this is how I price such coins. So how do you price a coin in, say, EF45 when the last auction record was in 2008?

Here are some of the factors that I take into consideration when pricing San Francisco gold. First, is the coin fundamentally rare? In the case of the aforementioned 1862-S half eagle and eagle, these are issues which are rare in all grades. Secondly, how nice is the coin which is being offered to me? Is it abraded, not terribly original and softly struck, or is it relatively free of marks, original and well impressed for the issue? If it is the former, an older auction record might have some weight with my pricing. If it is the latter, I know I will have to stretch; maybe considerably.

5. The Two Distinct Groups of San Francisco Gold

As San Francisco gold becomes more popular, we are seeing a distinct bifurcation of the market: the coins made prior to 1879 which tend to be rare in all grades, and the coins made after 1879 which tend to be rare only in high (or very high grades).

I think we will continue to see quite a bit strength in the rarity-driven market as collectors tend to be more interested in coins like 1862-S half eagles in VF than in 1892-S half eagles grading MS64. The market for condition rarities will be more hit or miss. Certain coins, including many of the “top pops” from the Saddle Ridge Hoard, will be eagerly absorbed into collections. Others may prove far harder to sell.

6. Year Sets Will Become Popular

There were six different denominations of gold coinage produced at the San Francisco mint. There were just four years in which all six denominations were made, and one of these includes a unique issue (the 1870-S three dollar). This leaves collectors with three possible choices for six-coin year sets: 1856, 1857, and 1860.

None of these three years contains an impossible rarity, and the first two years could even be completed in Uncirculated grades. The 1860-S is the most difficult set as the half eagle and the eagle are both rare in all grades, and virtually impossible to find above AU55.

I don’t think these sets are The Next Big Thing in coin collecting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few savvy collectors attempted to complete at least one year.

7. Learn What Real Color Looks Like

There are numerous high-value San Francisco gold coins in both PCGS and NGC holders which have questionable color. I suggest you learn what original color looks like for the San Francisco issues which are of interest to you. Notice I didn’t suggest you learn how to grade; I think most of you taking the time to read this have other things to do with your few free minutes per day. But I do think it’s important to learn that, as an example, all 1862-S quarter eagles are supposed to have a certain shade of color, and if you see one which isn’t close to this shade, it’s likely been enhanced.

How do you learn what original coins look like? Look at catalogs with old time collections (Bass, Norweb, James Stack, and Eliasberg) and study the hues/patterns of color that these coins had. Go to the ANA Museum in Colorado Springs and study the Bass coins. Carefully study the raregoldcoins.com Coinapedia to see hundreds of pictures of unmolested, original coins.

8. Learn How to Differentiate Strike vs. Wear on Type One and Type Two Double Eagles

Many new collectors of San Francisco gold are thrown off by the difference between strike and wear on Type One and Type double eagles; two of the most popular series from this mint.

As you begin to learn about these coins, you will begin to determine that certain issues are always found with weakness on the hair or on the stars or even at the centers. Learn which issues are struck which way. This is reasonably easy to do as photo archives for higher grade San Francisco double eagles can be found on ha.com or on PCGS Coinfacts.

9. Best Value Grades

I have written before on Best Value Grades. As San Francisco gold coins become more popular and increase in value, I think this is an important point for collectors to consider.

10. Does Size Matter?

So far, the San Francisco gold coin renaissance has been led by large-size coins: eagles and double eagles. Will this increase in popularity carry over to smaller coins?

I can see gold dollars and three dollars from this mint becoming popular due to the possibility of these being collected by series, and the possibility of these sets being completed.

The quarter eagles from this mint I’m not as sure about. The fundamentals of these coins make sense to me. Other than the 1854-S, all the issues are obtainable and many can be purchased in Uncirculated grades for under $5,000. But with the exception of the Civil War issues, these coins have just not yet caught on with collectors.

The “wild card” series is the half eagles. These are already reasonably expensive coins and in the case of the Civil War rarities, and they are more expensive than most any southern branch mint half eagle while (currently) being far less popular. It is hard to call a moderately popular (but indisputably rare) issue like an 1862-S half eagle “undervalued” when it is already a pricey coin. But “value” is relative, especially in the rare date gold market and I think San Francisco half eagles—at least those struck prior to 1878—are destined to become very avidly collected in the next few years.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard: Some Thoughts

Unless you spent the last two weeks in deep space you have no doubt read about/discussed/dreamt about the fabulous Saddle Ridge hoard. Enough has already been written about the background of this hoard that I won’t repeat it here. (NBC News, BBC, CNN, Yahoo, etc.) The scope of this find has truly captured the fancy of the collecting and non-collecting public alike, and I have been asked about the coins dozens of times; from people ranging from good clients to my doctor to my barista who chatted  me up about the “stolen coins” while making me a pour over macchiato today at my local coffee joint. This is a story with legs.

What I find fascinating about this story is that it is the first great “treasure “ to be found in the day of Web 2.0. When the lost 1913 Nickel was rediscovered a few years ago, it certainly made the rounds on the web, but stayed mainly in numismatic circles. And when the greatest find of them all, the S.S. Central America, was discovered oh so many years ago, there wasn’t even an internet around for the story to go viral; it had to build its momentum over the course of months; not moments.

As I mentioned above, I have been asked a lot of questions about these coins; enough so that I thought it made sense to blog about them so I could just say “read my blog” the next time someone asks me the following.

Here are some thoughts about the Saddle Ridge hoard that I’d like to share.

1. As I mentioned above this is the first truly viral story involving numismatics and the all new (and not necessarily improved) interwebs.

Much of the information I read online about the source and origin of the coins was seemingly invented by reporters who never bothered to check their source(s), and some blatantly wrong numismatic information was written by “news” sources who should have known better. Stolen coins…uh, I don’t think so. Special presentation piece made to commemorate the death of President Lincoln…? Nope.

Wrong information aside, the coins provided the gold coin market was the type of exposure you’d have to spend millions of dollars to generate. It was a true viral buzz and any coin story that doesn’t involve a Long Island telemarketer swindling a little old lady for her life savings is a good story in my book.

2. I’ve known Don Kagin for a long time (he tried to hire me a billion years ago when I was a high school student) and I was glad to see this deal being handled by a firm that is both reputable and knowledgeable.

Often times, deals like this wind up with the wrong people. This time it didn’t.

David McCarthy, the senior numismatist at Kagin’s, is a close friend of mine and he deserves kudos for a host of reasons: treating the owners fairly, properly conserving the coins, making savvy marketing decisions, and just generally doing the right thing. David is one of the good guys in the business and I am really happy for him and his 15+++ minutes of fame. And damn if he didn’t clean up nicely for TV. (Sadly the Good Morning America clip is not currently available online, but CoinWeek has a nice short piece on YouTube.)

3. When I first read that much of the deal was going to be sold online at Amazon.com my first reaction was “wow, that’s ballsy.” My next reaction was “wow, that’s incredibly smart.”

Amazon.com has flirted with entering the coin market before, but for a number of reasons they couldn’t find the best way to enter the market. So why not enter the market with a deal worth millions of dollars and with scads of good publicity?

But this deal could really be win-win for the owners and for Amazon. With all the publicity these coins have garnered, they are clearly worth a premium. Who better to possibly reach the ultimate audience of non-collectors who might be willing to pay the sort of premium which might (or might not) seem too high to dyed-in-the-wool collectors than a company who gets more traffic every minute than I probably do in a month? Well, you might say, the traffic you get is more established and (most) everyone on the raregoldcoins.com site is a likely buyer. But as the owners of the coins - wouldn't you rather have them exposed to millions and millions of people worldwide than an audience of a few thousand established collectors? And if doesn’t work on Amazon? The coins are still great and still can be sold through more established numismatic channels. If Amazon does well and becomes a player in the coin market, it’s great for everyone. If it doesn’t work? No harm, no foul…

4. As the World’s Most Jaded Coin Dealer (OK, maybe not the most jaded but certainly in medal contention) it takes a lot to get me excited.

When I heard that the coins were going to be on display at the Atlanta show I was skeptical. Would they be bright, shiny, and obviously conserved? Would PCGS get carried away with the grading ? Would the coins themselves mostly be common date double eagles in slightly uncommon grades?

The 50 or so coins that were on display at the show were impressive to say the least. Many were the best examples of their specific issue that I have ever seen, and they look fresh and original; not overly conserved. I think PCGS did a nice job grading them and I really liked the special gold labels which PCGS prepared for the coins. I arrived expecting to be unimpressed and left impressed. And my guess is that most collectors are going to feel the same; at least with the top 10-20% of the coins in the hoard; I can’t speak for the remaining examples.

5. How will the Saddle Ridge coins affect the market?

Ah…the $10 million dollar question. Since the majority of the coins were Type Two and Type Three double eagles from San Francisco, the scope of the hoard is narrow and series specific.  I haven’t seen a list of all the coins, but I assume that the majority of them are dated in the mid to late 1870’s and the 1880’s. One area that will be greatly impacted are slightly better date SF Type Threes, like an 1887-S or an 1888-S. If there are 100 MS63 1887-S double eagles, this date could drop in value by 20-50% . And the biggest loser is likely to be the guy who owns the current finest known 1877-S or 1879-S (to pick two random dates) who might see his $50,000+ population one/none better coin become a population two/one better coin.

The Condition Census and Finest Known coins could easily be absorbed by the market as long as they are fairly priced. From some of the preliminary numbers I’ve seen thrown around (such as “a million dollars” for the new finest known 1866-S No Motto) it feels that the asking prices might be extremely aggressive. If the coins are priced “right,” they will sell easily. My guess is that these are not the coins that will be sold on Amazon and will, instead, be offered via private treaty by Kagin’s and/or other specialist dealers or via auction.

The market for San Francisco gold coins has heated up in recent years after near-permanent dormancy. The Saddle Ridge hoard can only do good things to this area of the market. Will it make an 1859-S half eagle in AU50 more valuable? Not directly, but it will focus more attention on SF gold and it is likely that a few deep-pocketed new collectors who buy a Saddle Ridge knick-knack will be compelled to focus on other gold coins from this mint. The Type One double eagle market back in the 1990’s was jumpstarted by the availability of the SS Central America 1857-S double eagles and this market has been in hyper-demand ever since.

6. What sort of premium are these coins worth?

My gut feeling is that a less expensive (sub-$5,000) SF Type Three double eagle in average Uncirculated grades is going to have an ultimate premium of 10-30% for its saddle Ridge provenance. I would assume the original premium will be much higher and, as with the SSCA double eagles, it will evaporate over the first few years only to come back as the coins are absorbed. The numismatically significant five figure coins probably won’t be accorded a big premium.  The finest known 1877-S double eagle is a valuable, desirable coin but it won’t be worth an extra $5,000 or $10,000 because it is from this hoard.

One thing that will be interesting to see is how the collectors who focus on shipwreck coins view this hoard. As an example, “unique” coins from the S.S. Central America (i.e., coins which were one of a kind from the shipwreck) now bring a huge premium due to their collectability; something which was not the case even six or eight years ago. What sort of premium will the only Dahlonega half eagle from this hoard be accorded?  My guess is that the premium will be quite significant, and that these coins will be collected alongside the S.S.Central America, Brother Jonathan and S.S. Republic shipwreck coins.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard is certainly a topic which could be discussed endlessly, and I have the feeling that this is not the last time you will read a DWN Blog on the subject. I look forward to your comments and, hopefully, to selling a few of the neater coins from this group later in the year.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Why Do San Francisco Gold Coins Get No Love?

The City by the Bay gets my vote as by far the nicest city in which the U.S. Mint ever struck coins.

San Francisco is a cultural hotspot with museums galore and a long history of supporting the arts. It relishes its history, isn't afraid of it's somewhat sketchy past, and is home to more upscale, artsy residents per capita than probably anywhere else in the country. It should be a hotspot for collecting and its 19th century gold coinage should be as — or more popular — than its Podunk Western cousin, Carson City, right?

Actually it's not. San Francisco gold gets (relatively) no love from coin collectors. It's not a great coin town and, curiously, there are far fewer collectors for San Francisco gold coins than one would expect. This market is finally beginning to show some legs but it is still far less popular than I think it should be.

Why?

I think there are a lot of reasons. some clear and obvious, some far-fetched and obtuse. Let's look at a few reasons why San Francisco gold coins aren't that popular (yet), what the current trends in the market are and what the future holds for these issues from the Barbary Coast.

1. There Are "Too Many" Issues

San Francisco produced gold coins with virtually no interruptions from 1854 through 1916 and, sporadically in the 1920's and early 1930's. This is the longest production run of any branch mint and only the Philadelphia mint struck more coins during this time period.

Clearly, there are a lot of gold coins struck at the San Francisco and not all of them are "interesting." This is a contrast to the southern mints of Charlotte and Dahlonega which had shorter production runs and from which every coin has some degree of numismatic scarcity and desirability. The pre-1879 San Francisco Liberty Head gold coins tend to be far more interesting than their post-1879 counterparts and, admittedly, these later issues tend to be viewed as a group which sort of just drags on and on.

This plethora of issues tends to intimidate the novice collector. To state, "I'm a collector of San Francisco gold," entails denominations ranging from gold dollars to double eagles and, quite frankly, this is intimidating. It is important for the potential San Francisco collector to immediately become a specialist and focus on either one denomination or a subset (i.e., No Motto half eagles from this mint).

Which brings us to the all-important point number two...

2. There's No Reference Book on San Francisco Gold Coinage

Reference books exist on virtually all the mints that struck U.S. gold coins and specialized books by Bowers, Dannreuther, Akers, Goe and others cover early gold, certain non-southern branch mints. But, to date, there is no single specialized reference work on San Francisco gold.

For years, I've given this project strong consideration but the amount of work it will take to write a San Francisco gold coin book is staggering. And it's a real Catch-22: the market will be jumpstarted by said book but who wants to spend the time, effort and money to undertake this project when it will probably sell 500 copies and go overlooked? It's truly a labor of love and the handful of dealers that I think are qualified to write such a book (myself included) are probably too busy buying and selling coins to pen a 400-500 page opus on SF gold. 

Until a good standard reference book on these coins is published, the market is destined to trail areas such as Carson City, Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans.

3. There's No Marketmaker(s) In This Series

If you want to buy a nice Dahlonega half eagle, there is a small but stable core of suppliers that collectors know where to turn to. Same with Type One double eagles, Proof gold and early gold, to name a few. But who is an iconic marketmarker for San Francisco half eagles; a dealer you know is always going to have a nice date run of Civil War era coins or some Gem semi-scarce issues from the 1880's and 1890's? At this point, there is no one dealer who is "Mr. San Francisco gold."

Ironically, there has been some exceptional marketing in one area of the San Francisco coin market: Type One and Type Three double eagles. The former has been the domain of a West Coast firm for over a decade and it began as an off-shoot of the S.S. Central America shipwreck. They had a brainstorm many years ago which proved prescient: you buy a gorgeous 1857-S double eagle in MS64 or MS65 and you get hooked; the next logical step is a date set of Type One double eagles from this mint. That's why coins like the 1854-S, 1861-S Paquet Reverse and the 1866-S No Motto have tripled in value in the last decade.

If this West Coast marketer started to focus on San Francisco gold which complimented its double eagle focus, it might be a huge shot in the arm for these coins. If a collector bought a nice 1857-S double eagle, wouldn't he want to assemble a date set of 1857-S gold? In theory yes but there is one problem. While there are thousands of Gem and Superb 1857-S double eagles available, all the other denominations from this year are rare to very rare in Uncirculated and non-existent in Gem. How do you explain to a new collector that the AU58 1857-S eagle he is being offered to go with his 1857-S double eagle in MS65 is the best available coin for that denomination?

4. Modern Coins Have Hurt the "Unusual Date" San Francisco Market

A coin like an 1864-S eagle is clearly a "rare date" issue with an avid collector base. And a 1901-S eagle is clearly a "generic" issue which is bought and sold like a commodity by investors and investor-collector hybrids. Then there coins like, say, an 1883-S eagle which is not really a rare coin but is clearly not a common generic issue. I sort of jokingly refer to these as "unusual dates."

Before modern coins became popular, "unusual date" San Francisco gold was popular with marketers and it might sell for a 20%, 30% or even a 40+% premium over common dates. The sales pitch was easy to make: here is a coin which is fifty times more rarer than a generic issue for just a 30% premium. It made sense.

But today, most of the firms that would sell these "unusual dates" are focused on moderns where the supply is unlimited and the margin are consistent. And this has not only destroyed the market premium for a coin like an 1883-S eagle in MS62, it has hurt the ability for a coin like the 1883-S to be used an entry portal into the rarer coins from this mint, like the 1864-S eagle.

If a few of the firms which used to sell "unusual date" San Francisco gold would resume their programs, this might be good for the long-term health of the market.

5. One Of The Horses Has To Finish Last In The Race....

If we throw out Denver as a branch mint (because it's my blog, I get to make the rules) that leaves us with five branch mints. One has to be the most popular (I'm going to give that honor to Carson City although I could see a case for Dahlonega and one has to be the least popular. To paraphrase the immortal words of my high school baseball coach, "in a horse race, one of the animals has to finish last."

But if one branch mint has to finish last in a Numismatic Popularity Contest, why San Francisco? With all the newly created wealth in Northern California from nerd-centric professions such as engineering, entrepreneurship, social media, etc. one has to wonder if the time is coming for San Francisco gold coins.

Interestingly, a few of my newer clients are in their 30's, have made a good deal of money from Internet or tech-related businesses and are from the bay Area or Silicon Valley. They are very attracted to SF gold and when they "run the numbers" (as you would expect a Tech Wonk to do) they quickly conclude that these issues seem like great value when compared to southern gold.

So could this be the future of the San Francisco gold market? Hard to say but if these few new collectors are any indication and at least one or two of the problems listed above is addressed, than we may be seeing a strong new market developing right before our very eyes.

Are you interested in San Francisco gold coinage? Would you like to assemble a world-class collection of gold from this mint? Whether you are Mark Zuckerberg or Mark the Dude from Around the Block, I can help! Please feel free to email me directly at dwn@ont.com to discuss your new San Francisco gold collection!