Grade Distribution of Branch Mint Gold Coinage

It is interesting to study the grade distribution patterns for various branch mint gold issues. By this, I am referring to what percentage of a certain issue’s survivors exist in a specific grade range. In order to apply this to a practical numismatic situation, I am going to use the Dahlonega quarter eagle series as my lab experiment. Any assumption that I make in this blog is series specific.

By this, I mean that what applies to Dahlonega quarter eagles doesn’t apply to New Orleans half eagles or San Francisco eagles. And within the Dahlonega quarter eagle series there are differences; as an example the issues from the 1840’s are likely to have different grade distribution patterns than those from the 1850’s due to a number of factors. In the case of Dahlonega quarter eagles, the primary consideration is that of usage: these coins circulated differently in the 1840’s than they did in the 1850’s.

I think the best “base line” Dahlonega quarter eagle to use in our brief study is the 1843-D Small D. This is the most common date in this series both in terms of overall and high grade rarity. It has the highest mintage figure of any quarter eagle from this mint, and with over 500 examples known, it can be found in a variety of grades.

According to the most recent data from PCGS, there have been a total of 243 coins graded. This number, of course, is inflated by resubmissions, but it gives a good indication of the grade distribution for this issue. According to PCGS, the grade distribution is as follows:

• VF and lower: 58 coins (23.86%)
• EF: 77 coins (31.68%)
• AU: 97 coins (39.91%)
• Uncirculated: 11 coins (4.52%)

Before analyzing this, there are a few things to remember. First, there are probably more raw low grade 1843-D quarter eagles than there are high grade ones, meaning that the number at the low end of the grading scale could easily inflate if these were ever submitted. Secondly, the number of coins in very high grades (in this case AU58 and Mint State) is clearly inflated on account of the financial incentive to upgrade a coin. An upgrade from VF25 to VF30 is pretty meaningless, but an upgrade from AU55 to MS60 translates to a not inconsiderable amount of money. And lastly, the grade range that has seen the most gradeflation in the last decade is AU, meaning that a significant number of coins graded AU50 or even AU53 by PCGS would not necessarily qualify as such if broken out and submitted again.

Taking all of these caveats into consideration, this grade distribution makes sense to me. I expected at least 60-70% of all 1843-D quarter eagles to grade EF45 and below, and according to PCGS’s figures, the current percentage is 55.54%. If we were able to dismiss all the superfluous AU submissions included in the numbers above, and punt all the marginal AU50 coins that are actually EF’s, this figure might well be close to 70%.

I think that the actual number of 1843-D quarter eagles which grade AU is more likely in the 25-30% range; not all that far off from the 39.91% figure shown.

By any stretch of the imagination, Uncirculated 1843-D quarter eagles are rare. My best estimate is that 15-20 are known, and many are marginal MS60 to MS61 examples. In MS62 and MS63 there are likely no more than four to six and none finer.

The grade distribution for the 1843-D Small D quarter eagle is reasonably similar to that seen for the 1844-D, 1845-D, 1846-D, 1847-D, and 1848-D. These are six of the most available quarter eagles from this mint and they represent the Golden Age, if you will, of commercial use for this denomination in the antebellum south. Beginning in 1848, gold discoveries in California made the Dahlonega (and Charlotte) mint redundant, and by 1854, mintage figures of all C and D mint denominations except half eagles were cursory at best.

There is a Dahlonega quarter eagle whose grade distribution is complete different than the 1843-D; enough so to be a complete anomaly within the series. This is the 1857-D; let’s look at the PCGS figures.

A total of 70 1857-D quarter eagles have been graded by PCGS. The by-grade breakdown is as follows:

• VF and lower: 4 coins (5.71%)
• EF: 6 coins (8.57%)
• AU: 45 coins (64.28%)
• Uncirculated: 15 coins (21.42%)

The 1857-D is the second to last quarter eagle from this mint with an original mintage of only 2,364 with an estimated 125-150 known. As long as I have specialized in Dahlonega coins, I’ve noted that the 1857-D is almost never seen in VF or EF grades, and most of the survivors are in the AU53 to AU58 range.

What is most interesting about this date is that so many of the survivors have a similar look. The typical example in AU55 to AU58 has an “Unc-ish” appearance with many of the hallmarks of a Mint State coin but with either light friction or soft hairlines suggestive or a gentle old cleaning. And, on most of the high grade coins, the color and quality of luster are similar.

These facts combined with the PCGS grade distribution lead me to believe that the 1857-D is a hoard coin. I can’t prove this—and even if it is true I know nothing specific about the so-called hoard. But the fact that 85% of all 1857-D quarter eagles graded by PCGS are AU or Uncirculated is interesting and is completely different in pattern than for any other date in this series.

There is one final Dahlonega quarter eagle with a grade distribution pattern which varies from the norm but for a different reason: the 1856-D.

The 1856-D is not only the rarest quarter eagle from this mint; it is the rarest single issue of any denomination. Only 874 were struck and around 45-55 are known in all grades.

The distribution by grade is very interesting; let’s take a quick peek at how the PCGS has graded the 35 they have recorded:

• VF and lower: 5 (14.28%)
• EF: 8 (22.85%)
• AU: 21 (60%)
• Uncirculated: 1 (2.85%)

There are many interesting things about these numbers, but two points need to be mentioned first. The 1856-D is an extremely poorly produced coin which is exceptionally hard to grade. I have seen 1856-D quarter eagles which could be graded VF30 just as easily as they could be graded AU50. It is also important to remember that as a rarity within the series, PCGS (and NGC as well) tend to push the grade on the 1856-D quarter eagle. Because it is such a rare coin, a nice EF45 example is typically graded AU50 or AU53 with little complaint from specialists.

I think the PCGS grade distribution for the 1856-D is skewed way too far towards AU and I very, very seriously doubt if “60%” of all known examples grade AU50 to AU58. But given the difficulty of grading this issue, I can understand how this is the case.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this blog, the grade distribution for each series depends on a number of factors. Age and the original mintage figure are obvious and important, but there are less subtle factors at play such as perceived rarity, appearance of the coin, whether or not a hoard exist(ed), and if examples were expatriated to Europe and are now returning to the American market.

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What Killed the New Orleans Quarter Eagle Market?

If you had asked me a decade ago which series of New Orleans gold coin had the most upside potential I would have replied, “quarter eagles.” This was a series which has everything going for it. It is short-lived (a total of 14 issues were struck from 1839 through 1857), affordable (at the present time, nearly every issue can be found in nice AU grades for less than $3,000), interesting from a historic and numismatic perspective, and much easier to complete than the half eagle, eagle, and double eagle series from this mint.

A decade ago, interest was soaring in the New Orleans quarter eagle series and prices appeared to be rising as well. But something went terribly wrong and this series, in many cases, is worth less than it was ten years ago; at the same time when many other New Orleans gold coins have shown excellent price appreciation. What killed the New Orleans quarter eagle market?

To answer this question, I am going to look at some theories of mine. I am also going to randomly choose four different issues in four different grades and compare prices from a decade ago to today.

1. Grading Standards Were Not Upheld by Both Services

A decade ago, standards for New Orleans quarter eagles were fairly tight. As an example, if you were offered an AU55 1852-O quarter eagle in 2003, the chances were good that this was a decent to choice coin with some luster present. Today, many of the 1851-O quarter eagles that I see in AU55 holders are, in my opinion, not much better than EF45 in terms of sharpness and overall quality. While this inflating of grades has occurred in many dated gold series, for some reason it has always seemed more obvious in the New Orleans quarter eagle series. Coupled with the fact that certain New Orleans quarter eagles have strike and manufacturing problems, this gradeflating has made the series fairly unappealing to new collectors and purists alike.

2. Populations Are Hugely Inflated

I don’t have immediate access to population figures from 2003, but it seems to me that both NGC and PCGS have hugely inflated numbers for coins like the 1851-O in AU55 that I mentioned above. A quick look at this month’s online figures show that PCGS has graded 20 in this grade while NGC has graded 102. I can live with the PCGS figure, although I think the actual number of accurately graded coins in this grade is fewer than ten. But the NGC figure of 102? Not only is this grossly inflated, it gives the impression that an AU55 1851-0 quarter eagle is a relatively common coin. Interestingly, CAC has only approved three AU55 examples of this date. One would think that a coin with an NGC/PCGS population of 122 coins would have more than three approved by CAC…unless not many of these “122” coins are CAC quality.

3. Small Coins Lose Popularity

Clearly, small coins like gold dollars and quarter eagles have lost some popularity in the last decade as collectors get older and little coins grow harder and harder to see. Just as New Orleans double eagles have taken on an unprecedented degree of popularity in the last decade, small coins like New Orleans quarter eagles (and gold dollars) have ebbed in demand. Not that this is not true across the board: popularity levels for Dahlonega small-sized coins are at an all-time high, and Charlotte gold is becoming more popular after years of neglect. But in the New Orleans arena, it is clear that the focus is on big coins and small coins, at least for now, are the losers.

4. Quarter Eagles Never Had a Promotion

You can make a strong case that the New Orleans double eagle market got jump-started by a promotion a decade+ ago and has since become a fully functioning, collector-based market. The New Orleans eagle market has been promoted to the extent of the double eagle market but it has found a solid collector base. The same can be said, although to a lesser extent, for the half eagles from this mint. This just hasn’t been the case for the quarter eagles. No one has gone out and bought 50 or 100 nice AU to Mint State quarter eagles, written a compelling script and sold them on TV (don’t snicker; it could and probably should be done…) This lack of promotion, combined with a general market malaise towards quarter eagles has made this the softest single series of gold coins from this mint (with the exception of two dates which we will discuss later in this article).

Now that I’ve dispensed with my theories, let’s take a look at some specific dates/grades in this series and see how they have performed in the last decade. Be aware that the sample size I am using is very small, but the prices are based on average quality coins trading at public auction; all are coins which I have viewed in person.

 1840-O Quarter Eagle, AU55

The 1840-O has some degree of numismatic significance as it is the first Liberty Head issue from this mint. It is relatively scarce in AU55 and this is a popular grade as this date becomes very expensive in Uncirculated.

• NGC AU55: $2,070; Heritage 2/11: 4377

• PCGS AU55: $2,760; Heritage 1/10: 3818

• NGC AU55: $2,588; Heritage 3/04: 6093

• PCGS AU55: $2,875; Heritage 11/03: 7143

The price performance of this date in AU55 has been mediocre at best. An NGC coin is probably not an easy sale at just a touch over $2,000, and part of this has to do with the current population of 20 in this grade with a whopping 41 finer. A PCGS coin at $2,500 would probably be an easier coin to sell as the population in this grade is just eight (with 18 finer). It is interesting to note that CAC has approved just one in AU55, and my guess is that a choice, original piece with a CAC sticker might be worth as much as $2,750-3,000, regardless of whether it was graded by NGC or PCGS.

1843-O Small Date Quarter Eagle, MS62

The 1843-O Small Date is the most common New Orleans quarter eagle, and the second most available in Uncirculated. In MS62, it is fairly scarce and I have always felt it was undervalued. What makes this coin interesting, to me at least, is that it is the only affordable O mint quarter eagle from the 1840’s in MS62, and I’ve always felt that this should expand its desirability beyond specialists.

• NGC MS62: $2,585; Heritage 4/13: 5494

• PCGS MS62: $2,291 and $2,585; Heritage 6/13: 2585, and Heritage 10/12: 5546

• NGC MS62: $2,185; Heritage 1/03: 4667

• PCGS MS62: $2,530; Heritage 1/03: 8447

These auction prices are a bit misleading as they don’t show that for a few years between 2006 and 2009, a nice MS62 example of this variety was worth in the $3,000-3,250 range. Prices have stayed flat over the past decade and I don’t attribute this to gradeflation as the PCGS population has stayed at a reasonably low 14 coins in MS62, while NGC has graded 26. I’ve owned most of the PCGS MS62’s and the quality is usually pretty presentable; certainly nice enough to be appealing to a non-specialist who wants a cool, higher quality branch mint quarter eagle from the 1840’s for not a lot of money. I’m kind of at a loss as to why this isn’t a $3,500-4,000+ coin.

1852-O Quarter Eagle, EF45

To avoid being pegged as an elitist, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at prices for an inexpensive yet reasonably interesting coin like an 1852-O quarter eagle in EF45. This is one of the more common quarter eagles from this mint in a lower than normal grade, but at less than $1,000 it provides a good amount of bang for the buck.

• NGC EF45: $446; Heritage 3/12: 8726

• PCGS EF45: $403; Goldberg 2/12: 1202

• NGC EF45: $604; Heritage 7/04: 8026

• PCGS EF45: $633; Heritage 11/03: 7196

I’m not totally surprised by this price drop over the last decade. Even though gold has increased from a range of $363-409 in 2003-2004 to four times this amount today, many gold coins like an EF45 1852-O quarter eagle have performed poorly. It all boils down to supply and demand, and there are a lot more 1852-O quarter eagles in EF45 than there are collectors who wants one; even at the bargain price of $425.

1857-O Quarter Eagle, MS62

As our final example, let’s look at a coin that I think perfectly defines the term “condition rarity.” The 1857-O is the final year of issue for New Orleans quarter eagles. A total of 34,000 were struck and survivors are pretty common in circulated grades. But in Uncirculated, the 1857-O is very scarce with just two dozen or so known; mostly in the MS60 to MS61 range. I believe that there are around six to eight properly graded MS62 to MS63 coins accounted for; PCGS has graded 14(!) in MS62 with four finer while NGC has graded seven in MS62 with nine (!) finer. CAC has approved four coins in MS62, suggesting that the typical quality of at least some of these higher grade 1857-O quarter eagles is above-average.

• NGC MS62: $6,038; Heritage 10/11: 4702

• NGC MS62: $8,338; Heritage 2004 ANA: 7152

The population of this date in MS62 was much lower than its current 21 coins, which makes the 1857-O appear to be a somewhat available date in this grade. I would strongly disagree with this statement, however, as in my experience a properly graded MS62 1857-O quarter eagle is very rare and collectors are being misled by the combined NGC/PCGS figures.

I’ve stated throughout this article that the New Orleans quarter eagle market is “dead.” This isn’t wholly true as there are two issues, the 1839-O and the 1845-O, which have increased in popularity and, I would presume, price. Why is this?

The 1839-O is a first-year-of-issue and a one year type so it has multiple levels of demand. This is clearly why other Classic Head coins like the 1838-C half eagle and the 1838-D half eagle have soared in value in recent years.

The 1845-O is a key issue with a low mintage figure of 4,000. It used to be very undervalued but it has become popular in recent years and it now has demand outside of the specialist community; primarily among collectors who like coins that are “cool.”

Let’s quickly look at price levels on these dates for now and around seven-eight years ago.

1839-O Quarter Eagle, AU55

• NGC AU55: $5,581; Heritage 4/13: 5480

• PCGS AU55: $5,581; Heritage 9/12: 4775

• NGC AU55: $2,530; Heritage 5/05: 8427

• PCGS AU55: $4,370; Heritage 91/05: 8767

I think the price increase for this date in AU55 is actually even more dramatic as a CAC/PCGS AU55 would actually sell for $6,500-7,000 today, and a coin of this quality would have only been worth around $3,000-3,500 in 2004-2005. And the increases in price for this date are even more dramatic in AU58 and the lower Uncirculated grades.

1845-O Quarter Eagle, AU50

• NGC AU50: $6,325; Heritage 4/11: 6317

• NGC AU50: $4,025; Heritage 7/03: 10126

Again, this is a coin whose limited auction records for AU50 examples in the time period which we are exploring is misleading. The 1845-O has shown good price appreciation in grades from VF to AU58 and I believe it will continue to do so as a result of its multiple levels of demand.

And what’s the fate for the typical run-of-the-mill New Orleans quarter eagle? It’s probably not a rosy future. I don’t see collectors caring much about coins like 1851-O quarter eagles in AU55, or 1854-O quarter eagles in AU58. Unless there is a sudden influx of collectors wanting to do complete sets, the price appreciation for this series is likely to be limited to those coins with multiple levels of demand, Finest Known, or high Condition Census examples of not-so-interesting dates or specific individual coins with great eye appeal.

If you’d like to learn more about New Orleans quarter eagles or rare gold coins in general, please contact me at dwn@ont.com.

United States Gold Coins with Multiple Levels of Demand

A trend that I have noted in recent years is that a subset of gold issues which have what I refer to as Multiple Levels of Demand (MLD). These are coins with more than one potential set of buyers competing for them. As an example, a coin such as an 1838-D half eagle is sought not only by Dahlonega specialists but by Classic Head half eagle collectors, first-year-of-issue collectors, one-year type collectors and collectors who just appreciate cool coins.

An 1844-D half eagle, in contrast, has a smaller pool of potential buyers which includes Dahlonega specialists and type collectors looking for a single nice half eagle for their set. MLD coins have increased significantly in value in the last five to ten years and this makes sense. Coin values are largely the result of a basic supply and demand relationship: the greater the demand, the more prices increase.

In this blog, let’s take a look at coins which are already stellar MLD’s and also at issues which might be the next wave of multiple level of demand coins.

GOLD DOLLARS:

If I had to choose the one single issue in this denomination which had the highest overall level of demand among collectors it would be hands-down the 1861-D. This scarce, low mintage issue is popular for a host of reasons: it is a coin with verifiable provenance from the Confederacy, it is the final issue from this mint (along with the similarly-dated half eagle) and the rarest gold dollar from any source. These facts (and others) have made it extremely popular and prices have soared as a result.

Other gold dollars which have a high degree of MLD include the Type Two issues: 1855-C, 1855-O, 1855-D and 1856-S. These four coins range from rare (1855-D) to relatively common (1855-O and 1856-S) but they have interesting stories attached to them and, in most cases, they are relatively affordable in circulated grades.

What are the gold dollars which are most likely to become MLD issues in the future? I would suggest that the 1849-C, 1849-D and 1849-O will due to their status as first-year-of-issue from their respective branch mints (side thought: this would make a great three coin set in AU for the collector of average means). I could see the 1870-S becoming an MLD due to it being the final year of issue from the SF mint for gold dollars, its low mintage and the sexiness of this date in general. The 1875, due to its mintage figure of just 400 business strikes, is another possibility as well.

QUARTER EAGLES:

As with many of the multiple level of demand coins, the list is dominated by Classic Head issues. The 1838-C and 1839-C have proven popular with collectors in the last decade as has the 1839-D. Of the three, the 1839-C tends to have the least MLD but this is partly due to the fact that many of the EF and AU examples which appear for sale are grossly overgraded and have problems. The 1838-C and 1839-D are both first year of issue with comparably low mintages and the latter is a one-year type.

A coin which is probably better classified as a Classic Rarity but which is also an MLD issue is the 1854-S. It has a tiny original mintage (246 pieces), very low survival rate and it is the first quarter eagle produced at the San Francisco mint. But this is already a solid six-figure coin and, thus, is not a realistic purchase for most collectors.

Other quarter eagles I regard as having a high MLD include the 1796 No Stars and the 1808; both are popular one-year types. The 1848 CAL is another obvious choice due to its status as a Gold Rush issue and as the first American commemorative issue.

What are the quarter eagles most likely to become MLD issues in the future?  I’d look at the four 1840 issues (P, C, D and O) as they would make a fun set to assemble, the 1845-O due to its status as the rarest issue of this denomination from New Orleans, and the rare Civil War issues from 1864 and 1865.

THREE DOLLAR GOLD PIECES:

I think there are really only two dates in this series right now that have MLD status: the 1854-O and the 1854-D and one of these (the 1854-O) has had a lot of its appeal ruined by blatant overgrading by the services.

The 1854-D is the clear MLD favorite right now. It is scarce in all grades but available enough to be a target for Dahlonega specialists, Three Dollar collectors, low mintage fans, and people who just like great coins with a real story to tell.

If I had to choose the dates most likely to have MLD status in the future, they would be the 1855-S (due to its status as the first Three Dollar from the San Francisco mint), the Civil War issues from 1861-1865 (all are collectible and could be turned into interesting subsets) and maybe the 1873 Closed 3 (very low mintage).

HALF EAGLES:

There are more issues of this denomination with high multiple levels of demand than nearly any other and this includes coins from the 18th, 19th and 20th century.

The first issue I’d place in the MLD category would be the 1795 Small Eagle. It’s available enough to be realistically obtainable by advanced collectors and it has a high “cool factor” as a first-year-of-issue with a great design.

Nearly any sub-$10,000 early half eagle has a high MLD factor, especially if the coin is choice and original. The reasons are obvious: old, gold, semi-affordable and very appealing from an aesthetic standpoint.

The 1838-C and 1838-D have oodles of demand due to their first-year and one-year type status. The 1839-C and 1839-D do as well but to a slightly lesser extent; both have, however, shown nice price increases in collector grades over the last decade.

The 1861-D certainly receives consideration as an issue with lots and lots of MLD and its counterpart the 1861-C has suddenly become quite popular as well. Both of these issues have demand that far exceeds the Southern branch mint box which other C and D half eagles are trapped within.

The 1870-CC, desirable as the first half eagle from this mint, is a coin with a high MLD. The same is true for the 1909-O as it is the only half eagle from New Orleans with the Indian Head design and it is a final year of issue. The 1929 Indian Head half eagle has become very popular in recent years due to its being the very last half eagle made.

Which half eagles have a good shot as showing high MLD in the next few years?  A few of my choices might surprise you. Due to its status as the only semi-affordable date of its type, the 1813 could have MLD. The same goes with the 1834 Crosslet 4 which is the key issue in the Classic Head half eagles; a set which is beginning to see appreciation by date collectors. The 1839-P is a neat, affordable one-year type coin which has lagged the market as has the first-year-of-issue 1840-O. The rare to very rare Civil War era half eagles from Philadelphia and San Francisco have new-found, widespread appeal and increased price levels to match.

EAGLES:

The first-year-of-issue 1795 has to be considered one of the most desirable eagles of any date or design. As with the similarly dated half eagle, it isn’t a really rare coin but it is an issue which “checks the boxes” for a host of collectors and has strong MLD as such. To a lesser extent, this is true with the 1799 as it is an 18th century-dated “big coin” which is still within reach of many advanced collector’s budgets.

The 1838 eagle has become exceptionally popular in recent years and it has soared in price. It is a first-year-of-issue with a low mintage and a very cool design which appeals to many different collectors. To an extent, the 1839 Head of 1838 has a degree of MLD but not as much as its earlier counterpart.

Many of the rare Civil War Liberty Head eagles have a high degree of appeal might they are probably not quite yet what I would consider MLD coins. An issue that clearly does have multiple levels of demand, though, is the 1870-CC which is desirable for a number of reasons. There are a few Indian Head eagles which have a strong MLD profile. The first is the 1907 Wire Edge, a coin of unparalleled beauty which has a great back story and which is rare but not impossibly so. The second is the rare and high valued 1933 which is the only American gold coin of this date which is legal to own.

I can think of numerous eagles which could have expanded levels of demand in the coming years. The key New Orleans issues, 1841-O, 1859-O, 1879-O and 1883-O, are beginning to show demand which exceeds the specialist community. The ultra-low mintage Philadelphia issues from 1873, 1876 and 1877 are becoming very popular as is the 1879-CC which has the lowest mintage of any Carson City gold coin.

DOUBLE EAGLES:

You can make a case that many Type One Liberty Head double eagles have some degree of MLD as they are pursued by general collectors, specialists and “double play” investors. If I had to select one specific Type One issue as having the most widespread appeal, my experience would suggest the 1861-S Paquet Reverse. The Philadelphia issues from the Civil War years (1861-1865) are quite popular as well.

The rarest Type Two double eagle is the 1870-CC but this doesn’t have the widespread appeal that the similarly dated half eagle and eagle do because it is very expensive and tends to be found with poor eye appeal.

You can also make a good case that virtually all Carson City doubles eagles, from both the Type Two and Type Three series, have multiple levels of demand. This is especially true with the more common dates in collector grades.

An obvious MLD issue is the 1907 High Relief. Yes, it’s probably overvalued but there are few American gold coins which have a higher level of demand from a more varied group of potential buyers.

Which double eagles have the potential to be added to this list in the coming years? Two which come to mind (and some observers might state that they already have MLD) are the 1861-O and 1879-O. The same probably holds true for the low mintage Philadelphia issues from 1881-1887 and 1891.

As coins become more expensive and harder to locate, buyers want an item which is special and which justifies what they are spending money on. Coins which have a nice design, a fascinating back-story, a very low mintage figure or some association with an historic event are the exact sort of piece(s) which people are now seeking and this is likely to continue in the coming years.

Do you want to purchase coins with multiple levels of demand? I specialize in such coins. Please contact me via email at dwn@ont.com and we can discuss how you can become a collector of these coins.

Coins That I Never See With Good Eye Appeal Part Two: Quarter Eagles

In the first installment of this multi-part feature, I discussed some of the gold dollar issues that are rarely seen with good overall eye appeal. In this, the second part, I am going to look at quarter eagles that do not generally come with good eye appeal. Note that I said "good eye appeal." This doesn't mean that I'm focusing on the rarest dates in the series. Obviously, issues like the 1841 and the 1854-S are very rare in all grades and rarer still with good eye appeal. But that's not my emphasis here. Rather, I am interested in coins that while scarce or even rare based on their overall availability, are especially rare with choice, original surfaces.

As a rule, most pre-Classic Head quarter eagles are scarce to rare in all grades and harder still to find with good eye appeal. One issue that comes to mind as a coin that is just about never seen with good eye appeal is the 1796 With Stars. As you would suppose from a coin with just 432 struck, it is a rarity in all grades. But what most people do not realize is that nearly all survivors are either unoriginal and unappealing or they show multiple planchet imperfections as on many other of the gold issues produced during this year.

The last nice 1796 With Stars to be offered for sale was Stack's-Bowers 2011 ANA: 7593, graded MS63* by NGC, that sold for $287,500. It was earlier sold as Lot 1791 in the Stack's 5/99 auction and was part of the fabulous specialized collection of 1796 coinage assembled by John Whitney Walter. But the best 1796 With Stars of them all is the incredible Gem (NGC MS65) from the Byron Reed collection that was later sold for $1,006,250 in the Heritage 1/08 auction.

Other early date quarter eagles that I believe are very hard to find with good eye appeal include the 1797 and both varieties of 1806 (1806/4 and 1806/5).

The Classic Head quarter eagle that is hardest to find with good eye appeal is a date that will surprise you: the 1839. While not a really rare coin in terms of its overall number known, this issue is rare in properly graded About Uncirculated and very rare in Uncirculated. I have only seen three or four that I would call Uncirculated and none finer than MS62. The single best 1839 quarter eagle that I have seen was Bass II: 309, graded MS62 by PCGS, that sold for a reasonable $10,925.

In the long-lived Liberty Head quarter eagle series, there are numerous individual dates that are hard to find with good eye appeal. To make it a bit easier to analyze them, I'm going to break down the series into a mint-by-mint list.

There are many Philadelphia quarter eagles of this type that are hard to find with good eye appeal. The one that comes to mind as perhaps the most difficult is the 1842. With a mintage of just 2,823, you would expect this coin to have a strong degree of overall rarity. But it is far rarer in higher grades than most collectors realize. I can't recall having seen more than four or five in any grade that I thought were above-average quality and the finest of these, by a mile, is the Superior 9/99: 1863 coin, graded MS62 by PCGS, that I purchased out of this sale for $31,050. A few years later I handled this coin again and sold it to a Midwestern collector who still has it in his world-class set of quarter eagles.

Other dates from this mint that are very hard to find with good eye appeal include the 1844, 1848, 1864, 1865, 1869 and 1870.

There are a few Charlotte quarter eagles that stand out as being especially hard to locate with good eye appeal. In my experience, the ones that are the hardest to locate are due to being poorly made. These include the 1842-C (a date that is actually not poorly made but is, rather, generally seen well worn), 1844-C, 1846-C, 1852-C and 1856-C.

The 1842-C is one of my favorite Charlotte quarter eagles. It is reasonably well made but its lack of eye appeal tends to be as a result of the fact that it was an issue that was used extensively and not saved. There are two or three known in Uncirculated (the finest is the amazing Elrod MS65 coin that was last sold by Heritage in the 2/99 sale) and a small number in properly graded AU55 to AU58.

The other dates on this list are rare with good eye appeal because they were not well made. As an example, the 1856-C is nearly always seen on poor quality planchets and with grainy, unappealing surfaces. The 1846-C is another date in which is invariably the case although there are a few more decent-looking examples around than for the 1856-C.

Eye appeal is not as much of a problem with the quarter eagles from New Orleans is it is with the other branch mints. That said, there are still a few issues that are hard to locate with good appeal. One that comes to mind is the 1856-O.

This is a peculiar date. It is not rare from an absolute standpoint as there are as many as 200-300 known. For some reason, this issue is extremely hard to find with original color and surfaces and even a nice AU55 to AU58 is very hard to find. In Uncirculated, this date is extremely rare. There are at most four to five known and none are better than MS62. It has been years since an Uncirculated example has been available.

Other New Orleans quarter eagles that are hard to find with good eye appeal include the 1842-O, 1845-O and 1846-O.

There are a number of Dahlonega quarter eagles that are hard to find with good eye appeal. I would have to say, though, that one date is notorious for lacking eye appeal. In fact, this date is so rare with "eye appeal" that I'm not certain that a good-looking example exists. This date is the infamous 1865-D.

Only 874 examples were produced, making the 1856-D the only issue of any denomination from this mint with a mintage lower than 1,000. Due to improper preparation of this dies (and possibly the planchets as well) every known example of this date has an appearance that could be called--charitably--"odd." The strike is weak and blurry and the surfaces are often rough and full of raised defects. This makes the 1856-D an extremely hard issue to grade and a hard one for the non-specialist to appreciate.

Other Dahlonega quarter eagles that are very hard to locate with good eye appeal include the 1840-D, 1842-D, 1854-D, 1855-D and 1859-D.

The final mint that produced quarter eagles was San Francisco. The issues from this facility tend to be well made but there are a few that, for various reasons, are hard to locate with good eye appeal.

In my experience, the San Francisco quarter eagles that are hardest to locate with good eye appeal are the Civil War issues, especially the 1862-S and the 1863-S. There are a few plausible reasons for this. To begin with, they are low mintage coins. As with all gold coins of this era, they were melted in large quantities. And because of the fact that no quarter eagles were struck in San Francisco during 1864, the 1862-S and 1863-S seem to have circulated a little harder and a little longer than other dates of this era. Both of these dates are seldom found above AU55 and even when seen in comparatively high grades, the tend to exhibit bright, abraded surfaces. Choice, original pieces are rare.

Some of the other San Francisco quarter eagles that are not often seen with good eye appeal include the 1859-S, 1860-S and 1866-S.

There are dozens of date in the quarter eagle denomination that are hard to locate with good eye appeal. Not all of these are expensive and a few, the 1839 as an example, can be found in presentable grades for around $1,500.

For more information on quarter eagles with or without good eye appeal, please feel free to contact Doug Winter via email at dwn@ont.com.

2011 Heat Index: What's Hot and What's Not

A popular feature of the www.raregoldcoins.com blog is the "what's hot and what's not" article that I write at the end of every year. As its the very end of what's been an interesting and active year, let's take a look at what was in demand in 2011 and what you, literally, couldn't give away. We'll look at a number of areas in the market and determine a "heat index" based on my personal experience in the 2011 coin market. 1. Gold Dollars. This was a mixed market area but overall it was fairly strong and in some cases it was very strong. The segments of the gold dollar market that were strongest were superb, one-of-a-kind Type One and Type Three issues (especially "wonder coins" graded MS68 and MS69) and very high quality Dahlonega issues (especially better dates such as the 1855-D, 1856-D, 1860-D and 1861-D). Areas that remained flat or trended downwards in 2011 include mid-level Uncirculated New Orleans pieces and San Francisco issues. The weakest segments of the gold dollar market included Gem common date Type Two issues and MS65 through MS67 common dates from the 1880's.

2. Quarter Eagles. Early quarter eagles were a strong area in the market. This was especially true for attractive, original coins in the EF40 to MS63 range that were priced at $50,000 and below. A few nice 1796 No Stars quarter eagles sold in 2011 and these generally saw prices that were higher than in the previous couple of years. Early quarter eagles priced at $100,000 and up remained hard to sell, unless they were either very rare or very nice or, ideally, a combination of the two.

The Liberty Head series saw mixed results in 2011. Nice circulated Dahlonega pieces were good sellers and even Charlotte coins, at least those in the $2,000-5,000 range, sold well if they possessed good eye appeal. The very high end of the market was strong. Ultra rare issues such as the 1841, 1854-S and 1863 all saw strong price increases in 2011. The surprise "trendy date" of the year was the 1864 which, in a short period of time, saw explosive price growth as collectors realized how rare it was.

Most quarter eagles dated 1870 and later remained hard to sell, even those with low mintages. There were a few exceptions (the low mintage 1875 became popular in 2011) but this seems like an area in the market that offers good growth potential for collectors with a budget of $1,000-5,000 per coin.

3. Three Dollars. After a rough patch of five or so years, the Three Dollar market showed more strength than I can remember. Buyers were fussy and coins that were not high end were hard to sell. The most popular dates included the 1854-D, 1855-S, 1861-1864 and the low mintage issues from the 1880's. Dates that were hard to sell included the 1854-O, 1865 and 1877. The rare Proof-only 1875 was a good seller while the not-as-rare Proof 1876 was harder to sell.

Prices on better dates in MS63 to MS65 have dropped to levels that make them prime for a promotion in the coming years. There are enough nice to very nice coins available (not factoring in common issues such as the 1854, 1874, 1878 and 1889) that I would not be surprised to see prices for nice coins rise.

4. Half Eagles. The market for early half eagles was very quality conscious in 2011. As an example, a common date early five such as an 1803/2 in AU55 to AU58 was worth 5-10% more if it were CAC-quality as opposed to the typical washed-out, unappealing example. The grade range that really began to see price separation due to quality was MS63 to MS64. There are early half eagles in MS63 holders that are hard to sell at $25,000; the exact same issue in the same grade with a CAC sticker and real eye appeal can be an easy sale at $30,000+.

The market for very rare early half eagles was hard to gauge in 2011 due to so few pieces trading. But in the Heritage 2012 FUN sale there is a superb date run of rare half eagles including an 1819, 1821, 1825/1, 1826, 1828, 1828/7 and both varieties of 1829. I expect these coins to bring record prices and the "heat" that they generate is likely to spread to the rare but more more obtainable dates of this era.

The Liberty Head half eagle market was generally good in 2011. The areas that were strongest include collector quality Dahlonega pieces, rare Civil War dates and high quality New Orleans issues. Areas that began to show some tentative strength included No Motto Philadelphia issues in AU and Mint State grades and rare but formerly unpopular low-mintage dates from the 1860's and 1870's. The market for Carson City half eagles in 2011 was mixed. There were not many nice coins on the market and the better dates that did sell only brought solid prices if they were very choice.

5. Eagles. While not everyone realizes this, eagles were probably the strongest denomination in the gold coin market in 2011. Nearly all areas were as stronger or stronger than in 2010 with the exception of early eagles (1795-1804) which remained off their market highs of a few years ago. But this statement needs to be clarified. Most of the early eagles that are offered for sale are very low end for the grade. Nice early eagles sell for 10-20% premiums over their low-end counterparts.

The Liberty Head eagle series came into its own in 2009 and since then, prices have been strong for choice examples of rare and low mintage dates. In my opinion, prices of rare, low mintages issues such as the 1863, 1864, 1865, 1872, 1873, 1876 and 1877 are still very low in comparison to less rare but more popular double eagles from this era.

The Carson City eagle market was similar to that described above for the half eagles. If a coin was choice and rare, it sold for a strong price. If it were just so-so, the price ranged from decent to slightly above average. But if a real "pig" was offered (and some of the CC eagles in holders are grossly overgraded) it might bring a distortingly low price. Collectors are urged to work closely with an informed specialist and to learn how to distinguish a choice, original piece from an overgraded low-end example.

6. Double Eagles. For the last five years, the Liberty Head double eagle market has seen an inexorable march upwards in price. In the second half of 2011, this area of the market seemed to weaken a bit, probably due as much to the steep rise in bullion prices as a natural correction.

The always-popular Type One market softened a bit but remained strong. CAC approved coins brought good premiums, especially for issues like the rarer New Orleans mint coins where eye appeal was a real concern. Premiums for rare shipwreck coins remained very strong in 2011. If an S.S. Central America, Brother Jonathan or S.S. Republic coin that had a population of just a few coins was available at auction it brought many multiples of a non-shipwreck coin's price.

The Type Two market was a bit stronger than in the last past few years. The market for common dates in MS62 through MS64 dropped rather significantly but scarcer dates (such as the 1868, 1869, 1870 and 1871) rose in AU and Uncirculated.

The bullion-related Type Three issues and the condition rarity market declined in 2011 but the market for truly rare issues (1881-1886 and 1891 Philadelphia) was strong.

7. Proof Gold. This was a strong area of the market in 2011 and part of the reason was a greater supply of choice coins than in recent memory. Strong prices were seen at the Heritage 2011 FUN sale where the Henry Miller collection, which contained dozens of superb rare date Proofs, brought very strong prices. Coins that were in demand include very low mintage issues and virtually all pre-1880 half eagles, eagles and, especially double eagles.

8. 20th Century Gold. The various 20th century series saw a mixed year in 2011. Common date generic issues saw significant shrinking in premiums over spot and in some series, coins were trading for tiny premiums.

A series that was stagnant in 2011 but which is primed for attention is the St. Gaudens double eagle. The upcoming sale of the Dr. Steve Duckor collection, to be sold by Heritage next week in their FUN auction, includes many very choice, very rare issues which are likely to bring record prices. This may not necessarily impact lower quality examples of these dates but it will clearly bring a lot of attention to a series that has been flat since the Morse Collection sale of 2005.

A series that seemed to be quietly attracting collector and investor attention in 2011 was the Indian Head eagle. I only handled a few interesting Indian Head eagles in 2011 but the coins I did own sold quickly and generally to smart dealers.

All in all, I look at 2011 as being a good year for the rare gold coin market. Not a great year but certainly a stronger one than 2009 or 2010. It was a year that rarity and originality became more in vogue. It was a year that soaring bullion prices were a big story during the first three-quarters. My firm DWN had an excellent year in 2011 and I am personally excited about the coming year and what it will bring.

Rare Liberty Head Quarter Eagles in the Heritage October 2011 Sale: An Analysis

In their recent October 2011 Pittsburgh auction, Heritage Auctions sold a comprehensive collection of Liberty Head quarter eagles. This collection contained many of the rarities in this series and I'd like to take this time to analyze the coins themselves and the results that they garnered. One of the rarest collectible Liberty Head quarter eagles is the 1841. It has now been decided with near-certainty that this issue, formerly believed to have been Proof-only, was struck in both Proof and business strike formats.

I am of the opinion that the 1841 quarter eagle is still an undervalued coin. There are fewer than 20 known, and it is clearly among the rarest individual dates in this series. If the Liberty Head quarter eagle series were to become more collected by date, I could see a nice example in the PR50 to PR60 range range having a base value of $250,000+, given what other less rare U.S. gold coins are currently selling for.

It was hard to determine if the 1841 in the Heritage sale (graded PR55 by NGC) was a business strike or a Proof, as it had been fairly harshly cleaned at one time and most of the original surface had been stripped away. I actually thought the coin might have been a Proof but would need to see the coin out of its holder to be more certain.

This coin sold for $132,250 including the buyer's premium. I thought that this was a reasonably strong price, considering that the coin was really not attractive. The last example to sell was Heritage 7/09: 1230, graded NGC PR58, which was considerably nicer.

There were some interesting Dahlonega quarter eagles in the sale. The most interesting was a really nice 1854-D graded MS63 by PCGS. It is the second finest known of around five or so in Uncirculated, and this is a date that is scarce in all grades with an original mintage of just 1,760.

This exact coin had appeared in Heritage's June 2004 Long Beach sale (as Lot 6200, in a PCGS MS62 holder) where it brought $34,500. It then appeared as Bowers and Merena 3/10: 3623, in a PCGS MS63 holder, where it sold for $63,250.

I was bidding on this coin in the Heritage sale for a client and before the sale began, I estimated that it would bring around $50,000-55,000. Shortly before the sale began, I realized that this range was too low and I raised my bid accordingly.

I wound-up being the underbidder on the coin, and it sold for a record-setting $86,250. The previous high for this date was $80,500, set by the Duke's Creek: 1511 coin (which I purchased), graded MS64 by NGC and the finest known.

The Heritage sale showed me that the market for very high quality Dahlonega quarter eagles is quite strong. But the market is also very discerning and more sophisticated than in the past. An 1844-D quarter eagle in NGC MS63 was impressive if you look at the numeric grade assigned the coin, but it was softly struck and over-graded in my opinion. It sold for just $18,400; a far cry from the $30,800 it had brought back in May 1998 when it sold raw in the Pittman auction.

I also thought that the nicer New Orleans quarter eagles in the sale did well. A sharply struck 1840-O graded MS62 by PCGS realized $17,250, a softly struck but fresh-looking 1846-O in an NGC MS64 holder was bid to $23,500 and a decent quality but not especially choice 1847-O in PCGS MS63 brought $14,950.

Another major rarity in the collection was a PCGS VF35 1854-S. This coin has the distinction of being the rarest regular issue Liberty Head quarter eagle with an estimated 12-15 survivors. Unlike other very rare issues, the 1854-S is nearly always seen in low grades with only one known in AU (an NGC AU53 that is ex Bass II; 472) and two or three in EF.

I spoke with a number of knowledgeable dealers about the 1854-S in the sale and the reaction was mixed. Nearly everyone agreed that the coin wasn't attractive, and that if it weren't a rarity like an 1854-S quarter eagle it might not have been graded by PCGS. But I think they are missing an important point: very rare coins have always been given certainly allowances by collectors and dealers alike, and in the world of 1854-S quarter eagles, this coin was better than most.

The coin in the October 2011 Heritage sale brought $253,000. This is almost exactly what I expected it to bring.

A damaged "no grade" 1854-S in the Stack's Bowers 2011 ANA sale had just brought $201,250, which meant that the coin in the Heritage sale was a shoo-in to sell for more than this. The best comparable result for an 1854-S was the Heritage 2009 ANA: 224 coin, graded VF35* by NGC, which was sold for $253,000.

If the Heritage 10/11: 4692 coin had been a nicer piece for the grade and still in a PCGS holder holder, I think it would have sold for over $300,000. Its scratched surfaces and lack of overall eye appeal held back the final price realized but, as I said, above this is such a rare coin that eye appeal is not as big a factor as on more common issues.

That said, the NGC EF45 Lee coin (ANR 9/05: 1128) that I purchased six years ago for $253,000 is now looking like a very, very good value.

One final rarity in the sale that I though was interesting was Lot 4716: an 1864 graded AU58 by NGC. For years, the 1864 was perhaps the single major "sleeper" issue in the Liberty Head quarter eagle series. Only 2,824 were made, and business strikes are extremely rare with fewer than three dozen known.

I didn't like the coin in the Heritage sale. In fact, I thought it was an Impaired Proof that had been misidentified as a rarer business strike. The coin brought $40,250 which I thought was a pretty lackluster result, given that Heritage had sold another NGC AU58 for $46,000 as Lot 5333 in their April 2011 auction.

Their were a few other things I noticed about the sale. The first was that the CAC coins typically brought significant premiums over the non-CAC coins. The coins that had CAC stickers were generally nicer than their non-CAC counterparts, and assuming that Heritage sent all the coins to CAC, it wasn't hard to figure which coins were the "best." There were exceptions to this. The aforementioned 1854-D, which should have been stickered as it was really a nice coin, did fantastically and some of the rarities mentioned above (1841 and 1854-S) did just fine without them.

But there some examples of coins in this collection whose value was greatly improved by the presence of a CAC sticker. I'll give you a few examples. Lot 4714 was an 1862-S graded AU58 by PCGS and approved by PCGS. This coin sold for $8,625. In their October 2010 sale, Heritage sold the same date in the same grade but without a CAC sticker for $6,900.

Another strong CAC-generated price was realized by Lot 4715, an 1863-S graded AU58 by NGC. It sold for $9,775. Compare this to the $6,900 that Heritage 12/10: 4325 brought (it was non-CAC stickered) and you'll see the value of the "green bean" to certain buyers.

My overall take on the sale was it did well but was not a "run-away." There were some coins that flew under the radar but very few bargains were to be had. The coins that appeared to sell for low prices weren't very nice. What I found surprising what that some of the coins that were nice but which were "hard sells" seemed to do just fine, even though there are not all that many end-users for them.