Preparing Yourself for the FUN Show

Amazingly, the 2010 FUN is a scant two weeks away. If you have decided to attend the show (and I strongly suggest that if you go to just one show all year that this you consider this one) here is a short list of things to consider. 1. Bring a good lamp. Viewing conditions at the FUN show are not optimal and a good coin viewing lamp is essential. Try if possible to recreate the conditions that you use when you view coins at your home or office.

2. Pull the trigger on really cool coins. My gut feeling is that really good coins are going to be in short supply at this year’s FUN show. My best advice is that if you see something that looks really great or something that you’ve wanted for a long time, don’t waffle.

3. Take an hour lunch break every day. The FUN show is huge and it can be a pretty intense experience for the collector and dealer alike. I think it’s a great idea to leave the show for an hour every day in order to eat a good lunch and take a coin break. Some of the worst purchases I’ve ever made at shows have been when I’ve been tired, cranky and hungry.

4. Have a game plan. If you’ve never been to a major show like FUN, it can be really intimidating. There are hundreds and hundreds of dealers and it’s hard to know where to start. Before you go, spend time on the FUN website (www.FUN.org) and make a list of the dealers that you want to see first.

5. Look at auction lots. Even if you aren’t planning on bidding, the chance to see some of the great coins in the major sales is very educational and rewarding. The FUN sale is traditionally among the very best held each year and this year is no exception.

6. Come as early in the week as you can. Many dealers (not me...) get to Orlando almost a week before the show starts and between the pre-shows, pre-auctions and pre-show hotel room trading, they are burned-out by the time the show opens to the public. I’d say if you aren’t getting there until Saturday you are coming too late. Try, at the very least, to be there on Friday when the show opens.

7. Be safe. There have been a number of robberies after the FUN show ends and you need to remember to be safe. Don’t travel with a lot of cash, don’t display your coins outside of the show, don’t discuss your purchases among strangers and, if possible, have your expensive new purchases shipped to your home/office after the show.

8. Call your favorite dealer(s) before the show starts. Remind them what you are looking for and to hold any important coins for you until you arrive. Speaking from experience, there are a lot of distractions at the show and a gentle prod from a collector is a good way to remind me to hold a coin.

9. If you bring your family, keep them off the bourse floor. Hey, coin buying is serious stuff. Do you really need your wife and kids tagging along? The beauty of the FUN show is that the family can spend the day at Disney World while you play in the world of rare coins.

10. Don’t forget to bring pricing notes. Bring your laptop, your specialized books, your price guides, Trends, the Greysheet, etc. You want to be ready when that special coin turns up.

The 2010 FUN show begins to January 7th and if past shows are any indication, this one should be memorable. If you have any questions about the show, visit the official website mentioned above or feel free to email me at dwn@ont.com

Affect of Gas Prices on Coin Market

Energy Prices and the Coin Market - How are soaring energy prices going to affect the coin market? I got my first taste of the New Reality today when I decided not to attend a coin show because of what I thought was an exceptionally high price for an airline ticket. The other day I received an email from Whitman Expos regarding their August Atlanta show. I believe that this show is in its third year and I have attended the previous conventions. Even though it is a brutal flight for me to get to Atlanta from the Northwest, I’ve always looked forward to the show. I love Atlanta, I like the Whitman people and want to support their shows and I have some good clients in the Atlanta metropolitan area. So even though this had never been a “major” event on the coin circuit, I was still happy to attend it.

That is, until I went on my airlines’ website yesterday and looked up the price of a round trip ticket to Atlanta. Even booking the ticket more than two months in advance, the best fare I could find was close to $800—and that was with a lovely three hour layover on the way home in Dallas. To get a convenient round trip ticket was nearly $1,000.

Now I know that the airlines are hurting and that Americans have had the luxury of really cheap airfare for the past decade. But when I figure a $1,000 plane ticket on top of a $200 per night hotel (I don’t like to share rooms when I travel and I’d rather camp out under a bridge than stay at a cheap hotel), the price of a table at a show, meals, etc., a show like the Atlanta Expo suddenly gets expunged from my schedule.

I wonder how many other dealers are feeling the same way about non-essential shows. No matter how expensive airfare gets, I’m still going to attend the ANA and FUN shows and I will continue to attend West Coast shows because of the convenience factor. But instead of going to three Baltimore shows per year, I’ll probably cut back to two to reduce expenses.

I have a pretty fortunate set of circumstances when it comes to attending shows. I go by myself and generally split tables with other dealers so my basic expenses aren’t that high. I also have a small inventory so I do not have to check extra bags and get hit with all the new fees that make travel in 2008 so much fun. I wonder, however, about the dealers who bring two or three people to shows (or in the case of a firm like Heritage ten, twenty or even fifty) as well as supplies.

My guess is that you are going to see an immediate change at certain shows. Small, local shows that dealers can drive to probably won’t be affected and the large national shows should remain strong. But the medium size regional and national shows almost certainly will suffer. You might see a number of dealers from the West Coast at the aforementioned Atlanta show this year but next year I would think many of us who have a 4000+ mile round trip flight will punt.

I know there are other trips I’ll now think twice about. I often fly to Dallas to view Heritage auction lots a few weeks before a major show since I have trouble finding the time to look at these coins during a show. When airfare was $400 to get Dallas and I could book a ticket at this price at short notice, it was a no-brainer. When airfare is $800 and I have to book this trip a month in advance, I will think twice; especially if the sale isn’t of interest to me.

Yet I wonder if all of this isn’t somehow for the best. You can put me high on the list of dealers who have complained for the past few years about how grinding the coin show circuit can be. Trust me, five trips in five weeks isn’t anyone’s idea of fun, especially when the destinations include the various Numismatic Gardens of Eden that I find myself in on so many Wednesday and Thursday nights of my life. And, of course, I will be the first to admit that no one is holding a gun up to my head and forcing me to attend Long Beach or Baltimore (especially when they are held back-to-back). Maybe the typical coin dealer’s lifestyle will improve by not being on the road so often.

So here we go into another potential new cycle in the coin business. It will be interesting to see what changes the Era of the Expensive Airplane Ticket (not to mention the $4.50 gallon of gas) brings to the market. I expect they will be greater than we realize.

Long Beach Report

The Long and Short of It - My short (but productive) stay at Long Beach means that my Long Beach report is going to be short (but productive). I didn’t arrive at Long Beach until Thursday afternoon and I was severely jet-lagged after having just returned from Japan. I had originally intended to totally skip Long Beach but a lack of coins meant that I had to try my best to quickly and efficiently restock.

After I landed and cabbed down to Long Beach, I called a few Trusted Suppliers and asked about the show. Their replies were nearly unanimous: it was a bear finding anything of interest and I was certain to be frustrated. My mood, as I headed down the freeway, was not good.

One thing that is good about being at a major show for just over a day is that you don’t have a lot of time to mess around. So as I hit the floor at Long Beach and began to scour I was very focused.

My day at Long Beach turned out to be amazingly productive. I was able to buy over thirty interesting coins; which is about triple the amount that I expected. I sold a few older, expensive coins that I was happy to move out and in the eight seconds that I was actually at my table, I had productive retail sales with new clients.

I spoke with a number of dealers about their Long Beach Experience and got fairly mixed reviews. One dealer told me he had an excellent show and the dealer that I share a table with had one of his more productive shows in some time. Other dealers I talked to told me that they had shows that ranged from fair to poor and most complained about a lack of interesting material (surprise, surprise). I’m not sure why I was lucky and found so many good coins other than the fact that I worked my little fanny off searching for them.

My take on the coin market is that it has clearly slowed down in the last month or so with the exception of very high end items. But there are some areas that remain strong across the board. Decent to nice early gold is in strong demand and choice, interesting Seated Liberty coinage (which I’ve been begging people to buy for about ten years...) is blazing hot.

In the realm of dated gold, I’ve noticed that nice quality Dahlonega gold is virtually impossible to find right now; my current inventory is virtually non-existent. Charlotte seems to be perking up a bit (in anticipation of my new book?) and I noticed a few mid-five figure Charlotte coins selling at Long Beach. Carson City half eagles and eagles are very strong, especially Registry Set quality issues. New Orleans gold continues to be hard to find and with the exception of the odd coin here or there, I have noticed a real shortage of high quality, interesting material since the beginning of the year.

What’s not selling right now? Anything that isn’t regarded as being, at the very least, medium to high quality for the grade. And generic gold....well let’s just say generic gold isn’t exactly a big seller right now.

My guess is that the Baltimore show will be decent but not great. This is the one Baltimore show that many West Coast dealers traditionally miss but the caliber of this show is now such that even the least interesting of the three Baltimore shows is still better than the most typical conventions.

Coin Collecting Questions & Answers

I recently spoke at length to a number of people who were strongly considering becoming coin collectors. They all asked me a number of great questions. I thought I’d share one from each of them along with my answers. Q. How do I find a reputable dealer?

A. I recently moved to a new city (Portland, Oregon) and had to find all new doctors, tradespeople and stores. I made my decisions two ways. For the big decisions I relied on recommendations from trusted friends and acquaintances. For the less significant decisions I went with my gut. Choosing the right coin dealer(s) is the same.

If you’ve decided to form a highly specialized collection (Middle Date Large Cents, Three Dollar gold pieces or Civil War Tokens, as examples) find out who wrote the standard reference works and who typically handles the greatest number of choice, high quality pieces within a specific specialization. If you are working on a more general collection, ask around. Post on the PCGS and NGC message boards and determine whether Dealer X has a good reputation or not. I’d also strongly recommend sticking with PNG dealers. These individuals tend to be more established and reputable and most of the leading dealers are members of this organization.

And, finally, trust your gut. If a dealer strikes you as being a blowhard or a sleaze, don’t deal with him. Remember: your first impression about a coin dealer (or just about anyone else, for that matter...) is usually correct.

Q. Can I teach myself to grade coins based on images on websites?

A. Not a chance. Coins are three dimensional objects and until images are capable of accurately representing three dimensional objects they will never show subtleties such as luster and surface preservation. A good photograph can give a new collector a decent impression of a coin’s appearance but a clever photographer can manipulate an image through lighting or digital enhancement(s). Not to mention the fact that most new collectors do not really even know what they are looking at when they view images.

So, how does a new collector teach himself to grade? I’m not sure I can provide an answer that most collectors want to hear. I think that many collectors will NEVER be able to learn how to grade really well because grading is an aptitude. It’s no different than being able to hit a baseball or not. A limited number of people can hit a baseball well and only a few hundred people in the world can do it well enough to play professionally. Same with coin grading.

What the collector CAN teach himself is how to determine of a coin is nice or not. You may never be able to consistently figure if an MS66 is a nicer coin than an MS65 but you can be taught that certain “looks” on a coins are preferable to others. And that, I think, is what the new collector should aspire to learn.

Q. Is it important to go to coin shows?

A. It depends. I personally think that going to third-rate coins shows is a complete waste of time. But for the new collector, a good show like FUN or Summer ANA or Baltimore can be a useful experience. I think shows are more important as fact-gathering sources for new collectors than as places to buy coins. At shows you have to make quick decisions in a setting that is less than optimal. If you establish a good relationship with a dealer or two, you can be sent coins on an approval basis, view them at home, study price and population data and generally feel a lot less pressured than if you have to make a snap decision at the dealer’s table.

Q. How important is price when it comes to buying coins?

A. Everyone likes to feel that they got a fair value when they buy something. The same holds true with coins. But collectors who are totally focused on price are probably going to wind-up with a mediocre collection. I’m not making this statement just because I’m a dealer and I’m trying to “convince” you to pay a price for my coins, or anyone else’s. I can tell you, however, that to buy nice coins you have to be willing to pay a strong price. Collectors who are primarily focused on price are probably going to do this at the exclusion of quality.

So how, then, do you establish what a fair price is for a coin? For items that trade with frequency, like a common date MS65 St. Gaudens double eagle, this is very easy. You can see what examples have sold for at auction and you can check various dealer websites and see what specific coins are being listed for. With rare, thinly traded coins it is harder to determine value. Auction prices realized are certainly a good source. Asking a trusted dealer what you would have to pay for a certain coin is good idea as well.

Do you have questions about rare coin collecting that you’d like answered? If so, please feel free to email them to me at dwn@ont.com. I make no guarantees that they will get featured in future blogs but if I like your question(s) there is a good chance that they will become a topic of discussion.

Factors That Determine a Good Coin Show

I hate to think how much time I’ve spent at coin shows. As an example, I’ve been going to Long Beach for 24 years now. Long Beach shows are held three times a year (that’s 72 Long Beach shows) and I’m there an average of three nights. Which adds up to a total of at least 216 days spent at Long Beach shows or, gulp, nearly three-quarters of a year. There are clearly good coins shows and bad coin shows. What are some of the factors that make a coin show good and why do some thrive while others languish or die?

1. Location: I live in the far upper left corner of the United States so every location is tough for me to get to. But I can endure endless plane flights to Orlando for the FUN show or to Baltimore (two or three times a year) because these are first-rate shows where I do a lot of business. A good coin show needs to be in a heavily populated area and in an area that is regarded as being “good” for coins. It is hard to explain why a wealthy, vibrant city like San Francisco is not a good coin town but it is pretty easy to venture a guess that St. Louis (a site of numerous conventions) is a really bad coin town. New York would seem to be a great location for coin shows but the price of putting on a good show in Manhattan makes it prohibitive for most promoters. I’ve often wondered why there aren’t more shows in Chicago—it’s in the center of the country and home to many collectors but for whatever reason there hasn’t been a major show in downtown Chicago for years.

2. Facilities: I don’t even want to attempt to figure out how many days of my life have been in spent in convention centers across the United States. After a while, the convention center in Pittsburgh seems to blend into the facility in Kansas City which appears to look like the building in Denver. But I will say that a nice, convenient location sure beats spending a few days in the basement of some ratty motel. I can remember coin shows back in the 1980’s that were held in underground garages and others that I half expected my lunch to be carried off by vermin. Unfortunately, a nice facility does not guarantee a good show. The Palm Beach show which died a fast death last year was held in a beautiful new facility in a great city. The bad news was that the closest hotel to this facility was a long walk and just try to get a flight from Portland, Oregon to Palm Beach, Florida…

3. Timing/Conflicts: One of the reasons why everyone loves the FUN show is that it’s held in a (usually) sunny climate in a month that’s traditionally gloomy and awful if you live in much of the non-tropical parts of the country. If the FUN show were held in Boston in January, I don’t think it would quite as popular. Another important factor to consider about a show is its conflicts with the traditional coin circuit. If I were starting a brand new show I would make certain it isn’t competing against a major convention and I would also be sure that it wasn’t being held a week or two after a major show. I suffered from a major case of “show burnout” in 2005 and 2006 and the conventions that I decided not to attend were the ones held too soon after major shows.

4. Public Attendance: This is less of a factor for me today than it might have been in the past. Many of my clients do not attend coin shows and prefer to do business with me via private treaty. And with just a few exceptions, I look at coin shows as opportunities for me to buy and sell coins with dealers. The exceptions to this are the major shows like FUN, ANA, Central States and Baltimore. I typically meet a number of collectors at these shows and I tend to stay longer, in an attempt to be “retail friendly.” The bottom line is that a show with good retail attendance has a much better buzz than a show that seems like a morgue and this translates to a better overall atmosphere.

5. Major Auctions: Every major show has a major auction which is held in conjunction with it. You can have a major auction without a coin show attached to it but you certainly can not have a major show with an auction to bring in collectors. One of the problems that new shows face is the difficulty in getting an auction company to commit to holding a major auction. At this point, the only big show that does not have an auction which I consider first-rate is Baltimore but even this seems to be changing as Bowers and Merena is attracting more interesting and better consignments. At other shows, like FUN or ANA, the problem tends to be too many auctions and not enough time to get these auctions done.

6. Grading Services In Attendance: If PCGS and NGC aren’t at a coin show, no fresh coins get made and the show is a waste of time. This may not necessarily be the case for a collector but for a dealer it goes without saying that “if the coins aren’t being made than the dealers aren’t getting paid.” I can’t think of a single coin show that I’ve attended in the past few years that was worthwhile when one or both of the major services weren’t in attendance.

7. Miscellaneous Factors: I can think of a few other factors that separate the wheat from the chaff as far as shows go. If the best hotel option is a Motel Six, then I’m probably not going to be anxious to get a table at a show. The same goes for the ability to fly into a town. If I’m traveling with coins and I have to change flights three times or fly a tiny commuter plane, I’m either going to come without coins or, better yet, not go at all. Safety is always a factor with me. I do not like going to shows in downtown Detroit or St. Louis because, in all honesty, I don’t feel safe. By the same token, I’ve always thought that suburban venues were sterile and boring and it’s sad when your best dining option after a hard day’s work is Applebee’s.

In summary, I think there are too many coin shows and I, for one, have decided that I will not be attending as many of them in 2007 as I did in 2005 or 2006. I’m not certain if other dealers will do the same (everyone complains about there being too many but everyone is too greedy to not go to every major show) but I predict that whenever the market gets soft, some of the shows that seem healthy now will either contract or fade away altogether.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report III

Another observation from the Long Beach show: I’d estimate that close to 90% of all United States gold coins, regardless of denomination or price level, have been “messed with” at one time. This degree of messing ranges from light old cleanings to recoloring, to application of putty or other foreign substances to hide hairlines to massive reworking of the coin’s surfaces. What this means to the average buyer of United States gold coins: a caution flag waving in his face every time he makes a purchase. Quite frankly if you are buying coins based on a sight-unseen basis or primarily through Internet-based auctions, it is inevitable that you are buying many problems coins; despite the fact that they are in PCGS or NGC holders. More than ever, it is essential for collectors to purchase coins through a knowledgeable, trustworthy dealer.

I had the chance recently to view two different sets of 20th century gold coins. Both were highly ranked in the PCGS Set Registry within their respective series. And both sets, in all honesty, were full of problem coins; the kind that, if the market stops surging upwards, are destined to show substantial drops in appreciation. I know the owners of both sets. They are nice guys but they have always been the sort of rugged individuals who have eschewed help from other dealers and “done it themselves.” You have to wonder how much better their sets might have been if they had decided to trust a dealer or two and get some help instead of arbitrarily filling holes.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report I

The February 2006 Long Beach Show opened today. Traditionally, Wednesday is a dealers-only event with trading occuring off the floor in the morning and on the bourse in the afternoon and early evening. Buying activity, in my eyes, could be described in three words: really, really difficult. I looked through dozens of dealer's coins today (including a number whose coins I do not look at until later in the show) and I have to admit that this is one of the harder shows I ever attended in terms of buying. There just isn't alot of material out there and what few nice coins there were have staggering price tags attached. I am hopeful that more coins will turn up later in the week but I am not holding my breath...

This is really par for the course at a Long Beach show. For some reason, this is a very hard show to buy at. It has been for many years. I would assume that part of the reason is that the services are tight at Long Beach shows and not many fresh coins get made. I expect that the upcoming Baltimore show in March will present me with more interesting buying opportunities.

But I am not returning empty-handed. I was able to buy around a dozen interesting New Orleans gold coins including a Condiiton Census 1855-O eagle, a lovely AU58 1845-O half eagle, some very high quality quarter eagles and a pleasing "slider" 1855-O gold dollar. I will have these coins listed and imaged on my website by Monday and would suggest you call me at (214) 675-9897 if anything captures your fancy.