November 2007 Whitman Baltimore Coin Expo

Even though it involves a schlep of Biblical Proportions, I really enjoy the tri-annual Whitman Baltimore Coin Expo. I can count on three shows each year that will be professionally run, well-attended and extremely active from both a wholesale and retail perspective. In many ways, Baltimore is the new Long Beach. Prior to the beginning of the show, Stack’s conducted an impressive 3,800+ lot auction. I made the decision not to attend this sale in person as I did not want my Baltimore Experience to stretch into a nearly one week marathon. I did have a Trusted Agent look at a small number of coins for me and I placed a group of what I thought were strong bids. And I proceeded to get blown out of the water. While I can’t comment on the entire auction, the coins that interested me went for numbers that were pretty insane, to say the least.

The first day of the Baltimore show (Thursday) is dealer-only and, to tell you the truth, I like this very much. Having only wholesale business on this day let’s me get more done and it lets me focus strongly on buying.

But because of the fact that I had some interesting fresh coins with me, I spent most of Thursday selling. And selling. And selling some more. I had around fifteen CAC-stickered type coins and with the exception of two that I was asking very strong prices for, they all sold quickly. I can’t say for certain that it was because of the CAC stickers or because type coins are suddenly in demand. My guess is that it is a combination of the two.

So what sold? As I mentioned above, type coins that were attractive or scarce dates or, better yet a combination of the two were in great demand. I would look for this to be a very strong area of the market in 2008. I sold a number of great Carson City coins at the show including two nice AU 1870-CC half eagles, a Condition Census 1871-CC, a solid AU 1875-CC and a really cool secret coin from the 1880’s that I promised the dealer I sold it to that I wouldn’t tell anyone. I also sold a few big-time early gold coins, two proof gold coins and a group of New Orleans gold including some scarcer date eagles.

Generic gold was very active at the show. From what I could tell, demand was high but prices were quite volatile. As an example, at the beginning of the show on Thursday, MS65 Saints were bringing $1,400. But after a few people were short, prices slowly climbed and by the end of the show they were bringing $1,475.

The doors opened to the public on Friday and a Thundering Herd of Serious Collectors stampeded through the doors as the clock struck 10:00. OK, maybe it wasn’t a stampede but the room crowded up quickly and I ran into a majority of the serious collectors from the East Coast that I know by the early afternoon. People at this show definitely come to buy and not to tire kick and I sold a number of very interesting coins.

I typically leave a Baltimore show on Friday but business was so brisk that I rebooked my flight and stayed for the rest of the day. I continued being busy right up until the end of the day and left the bourse floor tired but very satisfied.

The good news about this show, as I mentioned, was that my sales were pretty exceptional. The not-so-good news is that my buying was good but not great. I loved what I bought but I would have liked to have spent a lot more money.

For me, the year is essentially over. I will still be buying and selling coins but my travel is done with the exception of a quick trip to Dallas before Christmas to view Heritage 2008 FUN sale auction lots.

My guess is that from now until the end of the year, things will be reasonably slow in Coin Land although if gold continues its upward ramble towards the $1,000 mark we might see some surprise rare coin activity.

September 2007 Long Beach Show Review

I had very little in the way of expectations for the third and final version of this year’s Long Beach coin show. In my opinion, the show was slightly above average, primarily due to interest caused by the surge in metals price. I thought that set-up (on Wednesday) was a bit perkier than usual for a Long Beach. I sold coins to dealers who I don’t ordinarily do much business with but who are so in need of nice coins that they are, literally, doing everything they can to find material. One dealer, who was working a want list that included a number of scarcer Liberty Head double eagles, was able to find a few scarce dates in my inventory. I also sold virtually all of my generic gold to another dealer.

With auctions being as strong as they are these days, I decided to again focus my buying attention on the bourse floor. I was able to purchase more interesting coins than I would have expected at a Long Beach show. Some of the highlights are as follows:

A nice group of New Orleans gold dollar including a Condition Census PCGS MS63 1850-O

A spectacular 1867 quarter eagle in PCGS MS65, which is the Finest Known

A lovely PCGS VF25 1870-CC half dollar

An NGC NS60 example of the underrated 1882-O eagle

A superb PQ NGC MS62 1837 quarter eagle

Thursday saw a decent number of collectors attending the show, including a couple of new faces. I sold a few nice quality branch mint gold coins to brand-new collectors; something that hasn’t happened at a Long Beach for quite some time.

Friday, on the other hand, was very slow with poor attendance and limited dealer enthusiasm. Clearly, this show is pretty much over by Friday afternoon and most collectors, at this point, are hanging around and waiting for the evening auction session(s).

I can’t say that I’m sorry that I won’t be attending another Long Beach show until the Winter of 2008. None of the three I was at in 2007 were exactly barn-burners. My next two shows, in Atlanta and Baltimore, respectively, are sponsored by Whitman so, at the very least, I know they will be very well attended and professionally run.

I have also acquired a wonderful complete set of Carson City half eagles which I will be breaking up. The coins in this set range in grade from AU50 to MS63 and include a number of Finest Known and Condition Census pieces. If you have a specific want list that includes any of these, please call me or email me and let me know what you are looking for. Most are very high end for the grade with great original color and surfaces.

2007 Milwaukee ANA Show Review

I went to this summer’s ANA Convention expecting a good but not great show. I left the show having had one of my better ANA’s in many years and I think most other dealers can honestly say the same. On the DWN grading scale, I’d have to give the 2007 ANA a solid A-. I decided not to do any of the pre-show activity. In my opinion, doing the extra three or four days leaves me too tired during the regular ANA week and this isn’t fair to my customers who are anxious to meet with me. Plus, to be perfectly honest, I just don’t have the unlimited energy I had when I was in my 30’s and could work for days at a time at an ANA level of intensity.

I arrived on Monday and attended the pre-PNG set-up for a few hours. My major goal for the week was to buy and I had decided to focus my energy on the bourse floor as opposed to the Heritage auction where I knew prices on the DWN-caliber material would be extremely high.

PNG day was Tuesday. I generally hate PNG day. It starts absurdly early (8 a.m.) and seeing other dealers in suits scares me. Plus I find this to be a generally lackluster day with little of interest going on. This year’s edition started slowly but it seemed to really pick-up steam after a few hours and by the end of the day, things were very active. I literally ran from table to table searching for interesting coins and was able to buy a number of really neat items. I had hoped to find at least one interesting deal and was disappointed that this didn’t really pan out but I was very pleased with what I did find; albeit one or two items at a time.

Wednesday was a little bit of a let down. There was not a very good turn-out as far as collectors went, so I continued to do quite a bit of wholesale business. I can’t recall a show where it was easier to sell nice coins than at this year’s ANA. And here’s something surprising: a number of formerly “dead” areas of the market are suddenly coming to life. There were numerous dealers looking for type coins, especially items like Proof-64 and better Liberty Seated silver, scarcer date Liberty Seated and Barber coins and even such perennially overlooked items as Liberty Nickels and Three Cent silvers.

What else was hot? Everyone (and I do mean everyone) was looking for coins that were either very pretty, very rare or very interesting. And early coins (i.e. those dated prior to 1835) were in huge demand. I bought and sold a number of interesting early gold coins; mostly in the $7,500 to $15,000 range.

Thursday was the best—and longest—day of the show. I started answering emails at 6:30 a.m. and didn’t finish until I left the Heritage Platinum Night sale at close to 11 p.m. I stayed busy the entire day meeting with clients, preparing coins for submission to PCGS/NGC, buying coins from other dealers, figuring bids, etc. I typically had two to four people at my table all day and I could definitely sense a real buzz in the room and from what I could tell, most other dealers were quite busy as well.

So what were some of the more interesting items that I bought and was able to bring home? A few include the following:

An incredible original 1865 Proof set in an original presentation box, graded PR65 to PR67

A glorious 1795 half dollar in NGC AU55

A choice 1802 half dollar in PCGS EF45

An Uncirculated 1861-D gold dollar (which is currently being graded at PCGS)

An 1832 quarter eagle in choice original PCGS AU55

A superb original 1844-C quarter eagle in PCGS MS61

A select group of Carson City gold coinage

Some choice Liberty Head double eagles including a nice PCGS MS60 1861-S

One of the more interesting things that happened at the show involved a Midwestern investor/collector who brought a number of rare coins with him for sale. He placed his coins on display on Wednesday and there was a complete feeding frenzy as numerous dealers in upper-end coins descended on him. He sold well over $5 million in coins in two days including a number of very rare double eagles, choice early gold and a great group of choice early dollars. I was intrigued that this individual decided to forego the auction route and it didn’t seem to hurt him any as he got excellent prices for his coins.

Speaking of auctions, the Stack’s, Bowers & Merena and Heritage sales were all very strong. I attended only the Platinum Night session at Heritage and was amazed at the strength of the prices. I expect great coins to bring strong money at these sales but what surprises me these days is what the mediocre material sells for. As recently as two years ago, I could buy “product” at a Heritage sale and flip it to other dealers for a 15% profit the next day. Now, these same coins bring more than what I would sell them for. Clearly, auction prices now represent the new retail price levels for most series and I am convinced that, at least for me, I’d rather try my luck buying on the bourse floor.

My book “Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint” was given an award for “Extraordinary Merit” in the field of United States coin books by the Numismatic Literary Guild. I wasn’t able to receive my award in person (I was too busy working!) but had it in my case for the majority of the show.

All in all, it was a tiring but very rewarding ANA. I think the strength of this show will carry over into the late summer/early fall months and we will continue to see a good market for the immediate future.

2007 Milwaukee ANA Show Forecast

Needless to say, the upcoming ANA Convention in Milwaukee is a major topic of conversation among dealers and collectors this week. How do I think this show will turn out and what are some of the trends I expect to see? Read on for some of my thoughts. 1. My gut feeling is that this will be a good but not great ANA show; probably something like a B or maybe even a B+ on the grading scale. I think part of the reason it won’t be a screaming success is the simple fact that the market is good right now but not as great as it’s been during the last few ANA shows. The second reason is the location. I know at least a few serious collectors who are not attending because the thought of a few days in Milwaukee isn’t as enticing as going on vacation somewhere exotic. And, of course, some people need to stay home and make enough money to pay for the new coins they will be buying after the show is over.

2. I can just about guarantee that every post-ANA market report you read is going to include a complaint about the lack of available material. I tend to approach major coin shows with a realistic approach these days. If I’m really lucky and all the stars align just right, I’ll be able to buy some really nice coins. If things don’t work out that well, I will buy a decent number of nice coins but not as many as I could have used. The bottom line is that nice coins are very hard to buy and even the number one show of the year isn’t necessarily going to pry them out of the strong hands they tend to be in these days.

3. The auctions are going to be strong. I spent a few hours yesterday looking through the Heritage sale on-line and compared the current bids to the numbers that I am willing to pay. My impression is that while a few interesting coins will sell semi-reasonably, many of the best lots in the sale are going to sell for exceptionally strong prices.

4. It will be interesting to see if certain dealers will be buying coins specifically in anticipation of the upcoming CAC launch. My guess is that the only dealers who will be able to create any significant positions are those with excellent cash flow. Most dealers do not have enough extra cash lying around that they can put away substantial numbers of coins for six months to a year in anticipation of a market swing. Plus you need to remember one thing about most dealers: we like the action of buying and selling and we need a continual supply of coins to sell in order for our businesses to be a success.

5. In terms of what will be in demand at the show, I think it’s safe to say that nice early gold will be actively sought and that most of the available pieces will be subpar for the grade. Better date 20th century gold will be active, especially in the Indian Head eagle series. I think the demand for branch mint gold will be pretty series-specific. By this, I mean the participants in this market will be on the lookout for better dates (such as 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles) or choice, original pieces in the $2,000-7,500 price range. New Orleans gold should continue its increased level of demand and I wouldn’t be surprised if Three Dollar gold pieces show greater activity than earlier in the year. Any coin that is extremely rare and which has a high “coolness factor” will be extremely easy to sell (hopefully I can buy a few coins like this!). But this, of course, is no surprise.

May 2007 Long Beach Show Review

With few exceptions, coin shows are, for me, places to buy. So I typically judge my success at a coin show on how much I am able to purchase and if my new coins are interesting. On both fronts, I would have to say that the recent Long Beach show was a strong success. The funny thing is, the show itself seemed pretty slow. Until a few years ago, Long Beach had a very strong collector following and I could always count on staying busy on Friday and Saturday selling coins to collectors. This has clearly changed and I’d have to say that Long Beach is pretty much over these days by Thursday afternoon; i.e., it is a primarily wholesale-oriented show.

I’ve been having trouble buying coins at the last few shows I attended so I decided that I’d make a Herculean effort to find some interesting pieces at Long Beach. And I worked liked a dog; running from table to table and looking through boxes of coins from my usual sources and some dealers who I typically do not patronize.

I didn’t realize how much I bought—or how much I liked what I bought—until I returned home and wrote up my new purchases. Some of the highlights include the following:

A nice group of choice New Orleans gold coins including a lovely PCGS MS62 1857-O quarter eagle and an 1850-O eagle in NGC AU55.

A very rare 1841-O eagle graded AU53 by NGC.

Some attractive Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles ranging in price from $2,500 to over $10,000.

A dazzling Condition Census 1852-D half eagle graded MS62 by NGC.

An 1846 eagle graded MS61 by NGC which is tied for the finest graded by any service.

As for the show itself, I would have to say it was pretty marginal. There was a decent amount of wholesale business being done but there was very little fresh material available. If you were the kind of dealer who regally sits behind your table and waits for coins to come marching up, you had a terrible Long Beach. If, like me, you hustled and hustled, you may well have “bought your way out” of the overall malaise which now seems to hang over the show.

That said, a number of interesting trends became apparent at the show. The first thing I noted was that as soon as many dealers panicked and dumped large portions of their positions on generics, gold spiked upwards. The second thing is that Indian Head quarter eagles seem to be back in play after a year or so in the dumps. I sold a few better dates I had in stock (1912, 1914-D and 1915) for my full asking price to the first person I showed them to. The final thing I noted is that collector grade coins in all series remain very popular. If you had coins like scarce date Bust and Seated silver coins or better date Bust gold, you were going to sell them very easily.

I did not participate in the pre-show auctions due to lack of time and lack of interest. I spent very little time (or money, for that matter...) at the Heritage sale. I did sell a number of coins in the auction and was very pleasantly surprised at how well they did.

I am anticipating that the market will be relatively slow for the rest of the month although I do expect the Baltimore show at the end of June to be excellent. I am attending the summer version of this show for the first time ever (usually I go on vacation at the end of the June but now that I live in the Northwest I actually want to stay around!) and would urge you to do the same if you live anywhere near Baltimore.

2007 Charlotte ANA Show Review

I think if you ask most dealers if they had a good show at the spring ANA in Charlotte they would give you a resounding “no!!” To be honest, I didn’t think I had an especially successful show either until I added up my sales numbers on the plane ride home. My sales volume at the show was actually extremely impressive. There were some definite problems with this show. First and foremost was the fact that it was exactly a week before the Baltimore convention. A number of larger dealers decided that they did not want to attend back-to-back shows on the east coast. I know I was not excited about having to fly from the left coast to the right coast twice in less than a week (except for the 10,000+ miles I’d be adding to my Frequent Flyer Account balance...) For the most part, this show lacked any buzz and the public attendance seemed pretty light on Thursday and Friday.

I go to coin shows primarily to buy and from that standpoint, the Charlotte show was not a success. There was an almost total lack of fresh material available. Luckily, I was able to purchase a few very neat items from collectors who I know in the Charlotte area (some of which are already listed for sale on my website; others are out being graded at PCGS or NGC and will be listed in the next few weeks).

Due to a lack of submissions, NGC stopped taking coins for on-site grading and this meant that almost nothing was “made” at the show. That, combined with the fact that most people brought just a small portion of their inventory with them, meant that very little interesting material was available for sale.

I would suggest to the ANA that in the coming years they make sure that their spring convention is held a few weeks before or after Baltimore. I am not attending any shows in April and, upon reflection, I’d tell the ANA to choose a slower month like this to hold their show.

Some dealers complained about the location but I think Charlotte is an excellent coin town and a really first-rate city. The convention facility was excellent, I liked my hotel and you can’t beat the friendliness and hospitality of the locals. I just wished I didn’t have to fly 3,000 miles to get there.

I didn’t participate in the Heritage sale with my usual enthusiasm for a number of reasons. I did attend part of Friday night’s gold session, mainly to watch the sale of Steve Duckor’s amazing 1920-S $10.00 in PCGS MS67. As I had written in an earlier blog, I expected this coin to set a record for the Indian Head eagle series and to become the first example of this type to eclipse the $1 million mark. My prediction proved prescient as the final price realized was an amazing $1.725 million.

The 1920-S opened up at $550,000 and it quickly shattered the $1 million mark. There were at least five people bidding on the coin and three were still very much alive at over $1 million. Needless to say, Dr. Duckor was thrilled about the sale and I’m happy that he did so well. If I’m not mistaken, this is very likely the most money any living collector has ever made on a single coin. Steve paid $85,000 for the 1920-S back in 1982. I’m not sure what this works out to on an annualized basis but a profit of nearly a million-and-a-half bucks on a single coin seems pretty impressive to me.

Prices at the rest of the sale seemed strong. I didn’t buy much and even some of the coins which I thought I bid strongly on went primarily to Internet bidders.

The market seems more two-tiered than ever. As an example, I had some exceptionally nice high quality fresh Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles available at the show and nearly every one of them sold quickly. But I saw tons of low quality, overgraded dipped-n-stripped pieces which, even at substantial discounts relative to Trends, weren’t selling. This seems to be the case in nearly every series. Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?)

I expect next week’s Baltimore show to be very active. This doesn’t necessarily mean that lots of great coins will magically appear on the market but every dealer I spoke to in Charlotte is excited about the show, meaning that the mood, at least, will be very upbeat.

February 2007 Long Beach Show Review

nother Long Beach week has come and gone and this February’s version provided some interesting insights into the current state of the rare coin market. For me, the week began with attending the Goldberg auction in Beverly Hills. This sale contained quite a bit of rare gold coinage, including extensive runs of early half eagles, numerous high grade Charlotte and Dahlonega gold coinage and some impressive double eagles.

I thought that the overall results of this sale were mixed. The early gold coinage was stronger than I expected with the coins consistently bringing 10-20% over current market values. I found that buyers weren’t hugely picky as, in a number of cases, coins that were substandard for the grade did not sell for much of a discount versus examples that were high end.

An area that definitely saw buyer discrimination was Charlotte and Dahlonega issues. The Goldberg sale contained a host of coins in the MS60 to MS62 grade range which had problems. Nearly all were passed on by bidders but attractive, medium priced pieces brought strong prices. It seems that there are still a number of overgraded, unoriginal coins overhanging this market and until some of these go away, they will drag down the desirability of the nice coins with them.

Liberty Head double eagles continued to be very popular. A number of bidders at the Goldberg sale paid strong prices for Type I and Type II issues. As expected, New Orleans pieces led the way but I saw surprising strength in the Philadelphia and San Francisco areas as well. In Type Three issues, some of the nice, high grade Carson City double eagles in the sale brought very strong prices.

I found the Long Beach coin show itself to be among the slowest editions of this convention that I have attended in years. I go to shows primarily to buy coins and I was extremely disappointed by the near-total lack of interesting material at the show. I looked at box after box of dealer’s coins and was routinely left shaking my head wondering where all the interesting coins were. Overall, I spent around one-quarter the amount of what I spent at the FUN show which I regard as one of the best buying shows I’ve ever had. Click here to see a full list of all my new purchases with images and descriptions as well.

A curious trend at the show saw the bottom falling out of the generic gold market; despite the fact that bullion is as strong as it as been for years. Buyers could purchase VF and EF Liberty Head double eagles at melt levels and it was possible to buy the same coins in MS62 holders for only a $20-30 premium over spot; essentially melt plus slabbing fees. I mostly attribute this to cash flow problems with many of the larger market makers in the generic gold market. While I hesitate to make investment recommendations, generic gold seems like an interesting play right now with premiums as low as they have been in some time.

The highlight of the Heritage sale was a fresh-to-the-market 1854-S quarter eagle graded EF45 which sold for a record price of $345,000. As many of you know, the 1854-S is an issue which I have championed for many years and I have had the good fortune to sell three of them in my career. It is interesting to quickly recap the ascendancy of this issue into the status of Classic American Gold Rarity.

In the October 1999 Bass II sale the probable finest known example of this issue brought $137,500 which was, by a considerable margin, a record price but which, in my opinion, was still cheap for a coin which, by all rights, should be considered one of the most significant of all 19th century United States gold coins. This piece was resold a few years later in the $175,000-185,000 range. Then, around a year and a half ago, I purchased the second finest known (graded EF45 by NGC) for a record price of $253,000. This clearly raised the bar for the 1854-S and I remember a number of savvy dealers complimenting me after the auction for what they thought was a great purchase. Even after the new record price realized at the Heritage sale, I still think the 1854-S is undervalued in relation to other comparable rarities.

The market for New Orleans gold coinage seems as strong as I can remember it. Many of the bread and butter issues that I like to buy (such as 1888-O eagles in MS62 or 1893-O half eagles in MS62) were completely missing from dealer’s inventories and this makes me feel that a number of marketers are now selling these “introductory O mints” to their clients.

There are two significant shows in March (Baltimore and Charlotte) and I expect these to be excellent indicators of exactly where the market will be heading as we slide into the second quarter of the year.

2007 FUN Show Review

To borrow from a Chinese Proverb, after this year’s FUN show it looks like we will be living during interesting numismatic times in 2007. I would give the FUN show a grade of B (or possibly a B+) on the Winter Coin Show Grading Scale. It wasn’t the best FUN show I’ve had but certainly not the worst. Most of the dealers I spoke with had similar mixed results.

I go to coin shows mainly to buy and from that standpoint, FUN was a rousing success. I was thrilled with what I was able to purchase (much of which is already listed on my website, FYI. I try to have the majority of my new purchases described and imaged within 24-48 of returning from a major show, even if it means working all day on Sunday). Through a combination of luck and hard work, I was able to purchase some of the most interesting United States gold coins I’ve owned in some time.

You are, no doubt, wondering what was hot at the show and what wasn’t. Unlike last years’ FUN convention where just about anything that was round and gold flew out of my case, buyers were more selective this year. I noted a lot of interest in choice, original coins (I think my years and years on the Originality Soapbox may finally be paying off!) in a number of areas. Nice, affordable Charlotte and Dahlonega issues in all denominations were in demand but were, as usual, hard to find. Rare Liberty Head double eagles were highly sought after as were interesting, truly rare early gold coins. Carson City gold also seemed to be in strong demand, especially rare dates in higher grades and nearly all CC double eagles priced in the $1,500-15,000 range.

What wasn’t hot? Coins which were schlocky. By this I mean coins which had an obvious “processed” look; items which, although over 100 years old, had surfaces which seemed irradiated. These were nearly impossible to sell, although they were very easy to buy. Generic gold wasn’t helped by the fact that bullion dropped around $30 per ounce while we were at the show.

I had wondered if the gigantic Heritage sales would take the wind out of the FUN show. While over $75 million in coins sold at auction in the space of just four days, it didn’t have as big an effect as I thought. No, there were no Numismatic Tumbleweeds blowin’ down the aisles while crowds swarmed at the auction. I guess if you had a coin like a 1930-S eagle (of which there were no less than five in the Heritage auction) you were going to have a hard time selling it at the show. But if you had nice, attractive coins they were selling.

Being the Numismatic Contrarian that I am, my FUN strategy was probably different than most other people. Instead of focusing on the auctions as a place to buy coins, I figured that I would aggressively pursue my various dealer contacts on the bourse floor. As I mentioned above, I think it really paid off. There weren’t all that many interesting dated gold coins in the Heritage sale but I found many neat items on the floor.

You might also be curious to know what my take was on the Heritage sale. Basically, any really fresh, really nice coin brought big bucks. Tired coins brought prices which ranged from downright cheap to surprisingly strong. There were instances where too many examples of the same date or same type appeared in the sale and in these instances, the lower quality coins tended to really suffer. I will be very interested to see how many of the big coins which were sold reappear in sales a few months from now and how many go away. I’m guessing more of the latter than the former will occur.

One observation I made from attending the auctions is that the day of the Instant Expert Investor may be coming to an end. The market has been so good for the last few years that it was possible for a new investor/collector to roar through a high dollar set in a year or two, place it in an auction and reap good rewards. In my opinion, these days may be coming to an end. In 2007, buyers seem to be more sophisticated than in the past and they will pass on certain coins in order to merely fill holes. This is just fine with me as I have been preaching patience when in comes to collecting for as long as anyone would listen.

I will be adding some more comments about the show in the days to come and invite you to check back for these.

2007 FUN Show Preview

Remember when you were a kid and 6th grade took around two and a half years (or so it seemed) to complete? I guess the best sign of getting older is that your perspective of time changes completely. It literally feels like I was just at the 2006 FUN show a few months. Is it possible that we’re just a week or so away from the 2007 edition? As I’ve written before, FUN is one of my favorite shows. From a psychological standpoint, it feels “new” since it’s the first show of the year. Dealers come to this show more ready to do business than probably any other show. Many dealers have spent the last two or three months trimming their inventories down and divesting themselves of their bad deals. They come to FUN all cashed-up and ready to spend money.

FUN is one of the strongest shows for collectors as well. Unless you live in Hawaii, the chances are that the weather is better in Orlando during January than where you are now. So this tends to be a show that collectors come to with their spouses, significant others and even, on occasion, the entire family. The atmosphere tends to be more relaxed than the ANA show (which I have always thought has a sort of tense undercurrent).

Of course, if the FUN show wasn’t well-run, it might be a lot harder to get excited about it. After all, many people are catching flights on New Year’s Day in order to get there in time to do the pre-show auctions. But unlike other shows that I always hear dealers kvetching about, I never seem to hear anyone complain about FUN being too long or too expensive or in too weird a location.

I think what people like about FUN is its continuity. I’ve been a professional coin dealer since the early 1980’s and I’ve always associated the New Year with the FUN show. I don’t especially like Orlando but I think the Convention Center is better than average (and it is now as big as a small city) and the show is very well-run and professional.

I am a bit concerned by this year’s FUN show being diluted by the size and magnitude of the various and sundry auctions. Until a few years ago, FUN was all about the show itself and the auction(s) surrounding it were secondary. This changed once Heritage started producing $25-50 million dollar FUN sales.

How will the auctions affect the show? I think the biggest affect will be with collectors who might have a budget of, say, $10,000 to spend on coins at FUN but who get carried away at the auctions and spend it all there. I would expect that my retail sales at the show will be down considerably from where they were in the past. I don’t think that the size of the auctions will have all that much affect on wholesale business at FUN. If you have neat coins, dealers are going to want to buy them and many realize that coins on the bourse floor could be a much, much better deal than their counterparts at auctions.

What will be interesting is the impact on dealer cash flow, especially 45 to 60 days from now when auction bills come due. I can think of a number of well-known dealers who already have precarious cash flows. How are they going to pay a $500,000 auction bill with Heritage or Stack’s when a check they write me for $10,000 needs to be held for thirty days? This could be very interesting…

That said, I personally think the 2007 FUN show is going to be very strong. There is no doubt in my mind that people want to buy coins and, despite the fact that the auctions contain a seemingly unlimited number of lots, there really aren’t all that many fresh or very interesting pieces available; at least in the area of pre-1900 United States gold.

In some market areas, we are going to be able to figure out what some very rare coins are really worth. I expect that we’ll see a dip in the Indian Head eagle market and significant strength in rare date Saints. Proof gold is going to be very interesting to monitor, especially Matte Proof issues. I personally think the coins in the auction shouldn’t sell for strong prices given their quality but I’m willing to bet that I’m wrong and that they sell for strong prices to people who don’t know what original examples are supposed to look like.

2007 is going to be a very interesting year in the coin market and I’m guessing that the FUN show should be a good barometer. I hope to see you there!