2007 Milwaukee ANA Show Forecast

Needless to say, the upcoming ANA Convention in Milwaukee is a major topic of conversation among dealers and collectors this week. How do I think this show will turn out and what are some of the trends I expect to see? Read on for some of my thoughts. 1. My gut feeling is that this will be a good but not great ANA show; probably something like a B or maybe even a B+ on the grading scale. I think part of the reason it won’t be a screaming success is the simple fact that the market is good right now but not as great as it’s been during the last few ANA shows. The second reason is the location. I know at least a few serious collectors who are not attending because the thought of a few days in Milwaukee isn’t as enticing as going on vacation somewhere exotic. And, of course, some people need to stay home and make enough money to pay for the new coins they will be buying after the show is over.

2. I can just about guarantee that every post-ANA market report you read is going to include a complaint about the lack of available material. I tend to approach major coin shows with a realistic approach these days. If I’m really lucky and all the stars align just right, I’ll be able to buy some really nice coins. If things don’t work out that well, I will buy a decent number of nice coins but not as many as I could have used. The bottom line is that nice coins are very hard to buy and even the number one show of the year isn’t necessarily going to pry them out of the strong hands they tend to be in these days.

3. The auctions are going to be strong. I spent a few hours yesterday looking through the Heritage sale on-line and compared the current bids to the numbers that I am willing to pay. My impression is that while a few interesting coins will sell semi-reasonably, many of the best lots in the sale are going to sell for exceptionally strong prices.

4. It will be interesting to see if certain dealers will be buying coins specifically in anticipation of the upcoming CAC launch. My guess is that the only dealers who will be able to create any significant positions are those with excellent cash flow. Most dealers do not have enough extra cash lying around that they can put away substantial numbers of coins for six months to a year in anticipation of a market swing. Plus you need to remember one thing about most dealers: we like the action of buying and selling and we need a continual supply of coins to sell in order for our businesses to be a success.

5. In terms of what will be in demand at the show, I think it’s safe to say that nice early gold will be actively sought and that most of the available pieces will be subpar for the grade. Better date 20th century gold will be active, especially in the Indian Head eagle series. I think the demand for branch mint gold will be pretty series-specific. By this, I mean the participants in this market will be on the lookout for better dates (such as 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles) or choice, original pieces in the $2,000-7,500 price range. New Orleans gold should continue its increased level of demand and I wouldn’t be surprised if Three Dollar gold pieces show greater activity than earlier in the year. Any coin that is extremely rare and which has a high “coolness factor” will be extremely easy to sell (hopefully I can buy a few coins like this!). But this, of course, is no surprise.

2007 Charlotte ANA Show Review

I think if you ask most dealers if they had a good show at the spring ANA in Charlotte they would give you a resounding “no!!” To be honest, I didn’t think I had an especially successful show either until I added up my sales numbers on the plane ride home. My sales volume at the show was actually extremely impressive. There were some definite problems with this show. First and foremost was the fact that it was exactly a week before the Baltimore convention. A number of larger dealers decided that they did not want to attend back-to-back shows on the east coast. I know I was not excited about having to fly from the left coast to the right coast twice in less than a week (except for the 10,000+ miles I’d be adding to my Frequent Flyer Account balance...) For the most part, this show lacked any buzz and the public attendance seemed pretty light on Thursday and Friday.

I go to coin shows primarily to buy and from that standpoint, the Charlotte show was not a success. There was an almost total lack of fresh material available. Luckily, I was able to purchase a few very neat items from collectors who I know in the Charlotte area (some of which are already listed for sale on my website; others are out being graded at PCGS or NGC and will be listed in the next few weeks).

Due to a lack of submissions, NGC stopped taking coins for on-site grading and this meant that almost nothing was “made” at the show. That, combined with the fact that most people brought just a small portion of their inventory with them, meant that very little interesting material was available for sale.

I would suggest to the ANA that in the coming years they make sure that their spring convention is held a few weeks before or after Baltimore. I am not attending any shows in April and, upon reflection, I’d tell the ANA to choose a slower month like this to hold their show.

Some dealers complained about the location but I think Charlotte is an excellent coin town and a really first-rate city. The convention facility was excellent, I liked my hotel and you can’t beat the friendliness and hospitality of the locals. I just wished I didn’t have to fly 3,000 miles to get there.

I didn’t participate in the Heritage sale with my usual enthusiasm for a number of reasons. I did attend part of Friday night’s gold session, mainly to watch the sale of Steve Duckor’s amazing 1920-S $10.00 in PCGS MS67. As I had written in an earlier blog, I expected this coin to set a record for the Indian Head eagle series and to become the first example of this type to eclipse the $1 million mark. My prediction proved prescient as the final price realized was an amazing $1.725 million.

The 1920-S opened up at $550,000 and it quickly shattered the $1 million mark. There were at least five people bidding on the coin and three were still very much alive at over $1 million. Needless to say, Dr. Duckor was thrilled about the sale and I’m happy that he did so well. If I’m not mistaken, this is very likely the most money any living collector has ever made on a single coin. Steve paid $85,000 for the 1920-S back in 1982. I’m not sure what this works out to on an annualized basis but a profit of nearly a million-and-a-half bucks on a single coin seems pretty impressive to me.

Prices at the rest of the sale seemed strong. I didn’t buy much and even some of the coins which I thought I bid strongly on went primarily to Internet bidders.

The market seems more two-tiered than ever. As an example, I had some exceptionally nice high quality fresh Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles available at the show and nearly every one of them sold quickly. But I saw tons of low quality, overgraded dipped-n-stripped pieces which, even at substantial discounts relative to Trends, weren’t selling. This seems to be the case in nearly every series. Most of the coins available for sale now are extremely low end and this is having a negative impact on the prices of the nice coins. But knowledgeable specialists know that really nice coins are really rare and that they sell for really strong prices in this really two-tiered environment. (Got that straight?)

I expect next week’s Baltimore show to be very active. This doesn’t necessarily mean that lots of great coins will magically appear on the market but every dealer I spoke to in Charlotte is excited about the show, meaning that the mood, at least, will be very upbeat.

The ANA That Would Not End

After a few more days at home and having further decompressed from The ANA That Would Not End, I have some further thoughts/observations on the coin market and on the show itself. * I was very surprised to see almost no significant New Orleans gold coins (with the exception of the double eagles in the Heritage Platinum night sale) in any of the auctions or on the bourse floor. I’ve had a number of people call me and express surprise at the paucity of these coins, especially given the fact that my new book on New Orleans gold was just released, ostensibly spurring the market. I think the absence of these coins is due to three reasons. First, many New Orleans gold coins are genuinely scarce in higher grades. Second, the people who own higher grade New Orleans gold appear to be serious collectors who are in no rush to sell. Third, I would guess that at least a few dealers are quietly buying all of the nice higher grade New Orleans gold they can find in anticipation of successful marketing programs based around my new book.

* Early gold remains very much in demand. I usually buy a decent amount of interesting early gold at a show like the ANA and this year I bought just a few pieces. Despite the fact that prices for early gold have risen considerably in the past few years, the demand for nearly any piece (slabbed or raw, nice or ugly) remains very high and shows no signs of immediate cooling. I can’t recall having seen more than a tiny number of Fat Head (1813-1834 issues) gold at the show and most of what I did see was aggressively priced, to say the least. I think this area of the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future but I would not be surprised to see the more common or the less attractive coins start to show weakness in the next year. Any very rare or very nice early gold remains an excellent long-term hold.

* Although I was at my table or scurrying around buying coins most of the time, I did get a chance to look at some of the exhibits. I was sure glad to know that my tax dollars were going towards paying for an armed SWAT team of US Mint Police to guard the gang of 1933 Double Eagles that were on display. An exhibit that I found much more interesting was a small group of rarities from the Smithsonian including an example of the only Liberty Head gold coin that I have never owned or handled: the 1854-S half eagle. The Mint’s specimen (one of either two or three known) is a lovely slider example that would probably grade MS61 to MS62 was it ever to be slabbed by PCGS or NGC. There were also a few amazing Territorial issues including a superb Wass Molitor $50, a very high grade Mormon $20 and a nice group of Clark Gruber issues.

* In addition to my New Orleans gold book, another reference work that was released at the show was John Dannreuther’s work on die varieties of early gold coins. While the topic of this book sounds a bit esoteric, the book is a wonderful source work on early gold with incredible research from Harry Bass’ notes and superb photography. When you look at most coin books, you can always predict that a better version will come along and outdate the work in question. With the Dannreuther book, I think it is safe to say that the final word on the subject has been written and this book will be to early gold as the Crosby book has been to Colonial coinage. I would also expect that the die variety market for early gold will be stimulated and we may finally see rare early gold varieties get the respect that they deserve among well-heeled collectors.

* I did not attend the pre-show(s) this year but every dealer I spoke with told me that they were duds. Having done very well at the last few pre-shows, I was nervous that my decision to punt this year would backfire and prove expensive. It turned out to be the only thing that kept me sane and allowed me to survive The Show That Would Not End. Wouldn’t it be nice if dealers just said “enough!” and decided to limit their ANA Experience to the coin show and one or two of the auctions which occurred immediately prior to the opening of the convention?

* I’m glad I’m not a big player in the generic gold market because you certainly need very large cojones to actively participate in this market. It always seems that support for certain issues mysteriously erodes whenever supplies increase but that when you need a dozen saints in MS65 (as an example) to fill an order supplies are, mysteriously, as tight as a drum. I appreciated the fact that I was able to make some extra money in the generic gold rally that occurred in the months leading up to ANA. I don’t even mind that I had to give some of that money back when levels dropped at the show. But every time the market drops and rises and then drops and rises again I’m glad that I’m a rare gold specialist.

* The initial reaction to my new Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint book was very favorable. If you haven’t already seen a copy of this book, it is the first work I’ve done with color plates and these images, if I don’t mind saying so, are superb. Unlike most books that employ useless black and white plates, these color images are so lifelike that you’ll (almost) be able to learn how to grade just from looking at the pictures. I sold quite a few hundred books at the show and my publisher tells me that the book is literally flying off the shelves. Well, maybe not flying off the shelves but it is selling pretty decently. Seriously, it’s a great book and you should buy a copy or two for your library. Visit www.transline.com for ordering information.

Denver ANA Summary

The Denver ANA Convention can, for me at least, be described in one word: disappointing. I had said, in print, that I thought the 2006 would be a very strong show. What I forgot to factor in when I wrote this was that there would be three pre-show auctions which would siphon off well over $75 million of money that would have ordinarily been spent on the bourse floor. I have already mentioned the ANR sale, so I won’t go into greater detail. I did not attend the Superior sale (I decided to go home for the weekend and this was probably the only reason I was able to make it through a very grueling week of coin trading…) but I heard from a number of participants that coins went fairly cheaply and there were some excellent values to be had, especially on generic issues.

Heritage Platinum night was the final auction before the show began. I thought the selection of rare date gold was one of the weakest in recent Platinum night history. However, there were some interesting pieces that did extremely well. This included a lovely PCGS MS61 1796 No Stars quarter eagle that brought over $350,000. Most of the higher grade Charlotte and Dahlonega coins were bought back by consignors but a superb PCGS MS63 1856-C half eagle brought close to $50,000. Proof gold seemed strong as well which is no surprise given the fact that there was almost no notable Proof gold on the bourse floor.

The most interesting group of coins in the Platinum night sale was a run of Type One and Type Two double eagles from the Wyoming Collection. I purchased many of the higher quality New Orleans double eagles at levels that I felt were not cheap but not ridiculous. I wasn’t shocked by the prices that the 1854-O and the 1856-O brought ($287,500 and $316,250, respectively) as pre-sale Internet bidding was very strong for both of these coins. The highlight of the collection was the 1861 Paquet in PCGS MS61 which is one of just two pieces known. It sold to an Internet bidder for $1,610,000 which is a world record price for any Liberty Head gold coin at public auction.

The show itself began on Tuesday with PNG day. This is usually the slowest day of the show but even by usual standards this year’s edition was tremendously slow. In fact, the convention room was so lackluster and buzz-free that there were times I was very seriously wondering if we weren’t witnessing a Market Meltdown ala the infamous 1980 Central States show in Omaha where a roaring bull market ended with a whimper.

Things picked up somewhat on Wednesday and I thought that Thursday was fairly busy, although not nearly as much so for me as at previous ANA shows. Friday was my best day. I sold a number of expensive coins and met a few very interesting new collectors who are contemplating serious commitments in the arena of 19th and 20th century gold coinage.

For me one of the highlights was getting to see the collection of Bust Quarters formed by the Pogue family. It was on display at a dealer’s table and Brett Pogue showed me the coins individually and discussed their pedigrees. The Pogue collection is probably the single greatest collection of American coins formed during the modern era. I’ve had a chance to see a number of the coins in the collection and I can’t recall having ever seen a piece that was not exquisite. The hallmark of the collection is originality and it was amazing how evenly matched these coins were; with their wonderful coloration and complete originality.

After a week of being at a coin show, I have some observations about the market:

* There is no question whatsoever that the market is now very much a two-tier affair. There are really good coins and there is everything else. If you had really good coins at the ANA, you could ask nearly any price for them and they would sell. If you had boring coins, you had to price them at a good discount to generate any interest.

* This was the hardest buying show I can ever remember. While I did spend well north of $1 million dollars at the auctions, I was amazed at how bone dry the bourse floor was. When it came to deals, this year’s ANA was dry as well. I was offered two very interesting collections. I passed on both; one because I though the price was too high and on the other because it contained too many coins for me to deal with at one time. For better or worse, nearly all of the interesting fresh coins are going into the auctions.

* The quality of the typical Southern branch mint gold coin I saw was atrocious. There are some nice coins out there (I bought a few of them) but most of the Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I saw were overgraded and unoriginal. If you own crusty original C+D coinage, you have something really rare, regardless of date, denomination or grade.

* The market for Three Dollar gold pieces has softened. There were a number of pieces on the market. However, it should be pointed out that many of these were not nice and the really interesting dates in the series (such as the 1858, 1865, 1877 and the low mintage issues from the 1880’s) remained strong. The biggest correction was for higher grade coins (MS64 and better) in the common and semi-common category. MS66 Three Dollar gold pieces have dropped between 20% and 30% in recent weeks but are still worth considerably more than they were two years ago.

* The generic gold market is very soft right now. I would avoid speculating in this area unless you are able to follow pricing on a near-daily basis but it seems like some market areas are pretty good short-term plays right now.

* After getting a little panicky about the market at the beginning of the show, I am able to look at it with better perspective today, especially now that I’ve finally been able to sleep in my own bed for a night. I think we will see some short-term weakness in the market, especially in areas such as generic gold and “uninteresting” coins. But I think the market for really rare and really expensive coins is better now than it’s ever been. As long as the stock market remains flat (and it’s been as flat as a pancake for the last five years) you’ll see a strong market. The clear indicator of a weak coin market will be when stocks rebound and investors pull their money out of coins and go back to stocks.

2006 Denver Summer ANA Show Preview

If you only attend one coin show per year, the summer ANA is probably the biggest bang for your buck. Every major dealer in the United States attends this show as well as leading dealers from Europe, Japan and Latin America. The fact that this year’s edition is in the great city of Denver (which is generally a nice spot to be in mid-August) makes the 2006 convention a must-attend for the collector. If you have just 48 hours to “do the Denver ANA,” what is the best way to do this? My advice would be to arrive in Denver on the evening of Tuesday, August 15. Get a good night sleep because you are going to be a busy guy if you take the Winter Tour of the ANA bourse on Wednesday.

The show opens to the public on the morning of Wednesday, August 16th at 10 a.m. I’d suggest having a good breakfast and using the early morning to plan a strategy. You might want to go on the ANA’s website (www.money.org) and look at the map of the convention floor and the list of dealer’s tables. You’ll want to highlight your favorite dealer’s location but you should also consider visiting tables that contain coins that you don’t collect but which are of interest. As an example, I always like to visit the British dealers’ tables and look at their stock, even though I don’t collect these coins.

When the doors open, I’d recommend promptly going to your favorite dealer’s tables and asking what coins, if any, are available in your field of collecting. If you see something that is really interesting, I’d recommend making a quick decision. At a major show like ANA, you can’t really expect a dealer to put a coin on hold for you for more than an hour or two; especially not at the beginning of the show. Assuming you have a fixed amount to spend at the show, don’t be nervous if you spend your whole budget at the first table you go to; we can assume you went to the “best dealer” first and he is most likely to have exactly what you want.

I’d suggest you spend another three or four hours scanning tables and meeting dealers before breaking for lunch. Generally speaking, convention center food is awful and leaving the bourse for an hour to eat a good meal will prove to be an excellent strategy.

When you return to the convention (remember to save your badge!) I’d suggest you head over to the auction viewing lot area and spending a few hours looking at coins. Even if you aren’t going to bid in an auction, ANA auctions are a wonderful place to see exceptional coins and to study them. Just remember not to hog the lots as you may be sharing them with fellow viewers who are going to bid on them. One thing I would suggest you do is makes notes about the coins you like and the ones you don’t and then monitor them to see what they sell for later in the week.

I would then suggest finishing the day with another two or three hour promenade around the bourse floor. I’d recommend leaving around 6 p.m. (the show closes at 7 p.m.), heading back to your hotel and capping the night off with a good dinner in downtown Denver.

On Thursday the show opens to the public at 9 a.m. It’s a good idea to get there a bit after this as many dealers aren’t really up and running until 9:30 or even 10. I’d suggest spending the morning hitting the dealers you didn’t see yesterday and returning to the dealers you like. Ask to see any of the new purchases that they have ready for sale or ask them if any interesting coins are back from grading at PCGS and NGC and if these are available.

What if you haven’t purchased anything yet and you are starting to panic? At this point in time, an impulsive or forced purchase is just about the worse decision you can make. While it is likely that you will have already found something to buy, if you don’t spend your money at the ANA, it’s not a crime.

There is likely to be an auction session during the day or in the evening and it is interesting to attend, if only to see how the dynamic of live auctions work. You are not likely to see much in the way of compelling drama unless you have the good fortune to attend the sale of a major collection.

If at all possible, try and attend one of the lectures that the ANA schedules throughout the show. In the past, there have been numerous interesting subjects and many of the speakers are world-class experts.

Another thing I’d suggest you do at the show is look at the competitive exhibits. At last year’s ANA in San Francisco I was amazed at the quality of these exhibits and found myself spending time absorbing them nearly every day.

Assuming that you have a few hours left, I’d complete the day with another go-round the bourse floor and, perhaps, a final purchase or two.

The most important thing to realize about the ANA show is that it’s a remarkable opportunity for the beginning or expert collector to see coins he won’t be able to see anywhere else, make potentially valuable contacts and, most importantly, to come away with knowledge that will increase his ability and comfort level. It really is the Super Bowl of Numismatics and if you have a chance to attend this year, please don’t forget to stop by tables 523/525 and say “hi.”