May 2006 Long Beach Show Forecast

This should be a very active week for the numismatic industry. The week kicks off with auctions being conducted by both Goldberg and Superior. The Goldberg sale contains an interesting group of high grade Charlotte and Dahlonega gold coinage. The Superior sale is also interesting as it contains some nice fresh early gold (including a splendid 1821 half eagle graded MS62 and pedigreed to the Eliasberg collection) and a run of Proof gold ranging in grade from PR60 to PR65.

Heritage has their usual 5000+ lot sale beginning on Wednesday. There is a considerable amount of gold being offered including some fresh Carson City material, a run of nice Indian Head eagles, a superb set of Commemorative gold plus plenty of other coins in all shapes and sizes.

I do find it interesting that despite the very hot coin market, most of the auctions that are being held these days contains lots and lots and lots of boring, generic United States gold. One really has to wonder, what will it take to get some interesting fresh material out on the market?

The Long Beach show opens on Wednesday. I expect it will be a decent show with some relatively active trading. As usual, most dealers will leave disappointed as they will not be able to buy nearly enough interesting fresh material to satisfy the demands of their customers. A key to the show will be if PCGS and NGC decide to “make” any coins. If the Gods of Grading open the gates, then the show could actually be quite strong. If they are tight, expect much grumbling from dealers.

I have had a very busy past week. I sold two major classic rarities which I will describe in greater detail in the near future. I have also secured a great run of better date Three Dollar gold pieces in circulated grades. If you have a want list for Threes, make sure I know what you need as I expect many (if not most) of these coins to sell at Long Beach.

Someone asked me the other day why the Long Beach shows seem to have lost some of the sparkle they had in the 1990’s. I would have to say the answer is twofold. When California enacted their brutal new tax laws a few years ago, the show seemed to have been dealt a blow from which it has not fully recovered. I also think the whole Long Beach week is too heavily front-loaded. There are just two many auctions that take place before and during the show and this seems to act as a diluting agent. Between Bowers & Merena, Goldberg, Superior and Heritage there are well over 10,000 auction lots being sold in California and this has to take away some of the sizzle.

I am still available for auction representation at the Heritage auction but if you wish to have me bid for you, call me by Wednesday. As I mentioned above, I am looking at the gold lots on Wednesday (and possibly Thursday) and the sale takes place on Friday. The best way to reach me is by email at dwn@ont.com.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report III

Another observation from the Long Beach show: I’d estimate that close to 90% of all United States gold coins, regardless of denomination or price level, have been “messed with” at one time. This degree of messing ranges from light old cleanings to recoloring, to application of putty or other foreign substances to hide hairlines to massive reworking of the coin’s surfaces. What this means to the average buyer of United States gold coins: a caution flag waving in his face every time he makes a purchase. Quite frankly if you are buying coins based on a sight-unseen basis or primarily through Internet-based auctions, it is inevitable that you are buying many problems coins; despite the fact that they are in PCGS or NGC holders. More than ever, it is essential for collectors to purchase coins through a knowledgeable, trustworthy dealer.

I had the chance recently to view two different sets of 20th century gold coins. Both were highly ranked in the PCGS Set Registry within their respective series. And both sets, in all honesty, were full of problem coins; the kind that, if the market stops surging upwards, are destined to show substantial drops in appreciation. I know the owners of both sets. They are nice guys but they have always been the sort of rugged individuals who have eschewed help from other dealers and “done it themselves.” You have to wonder how much better their sets might have been if they had decided to trust a dealer or two and get some help instead of arbitrarily filling holes.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report II

The Long Beach show is in full swing and I expect that this will be the busiest of the four days of the convention. Here are a few observations I have made:

Where are all the PCGS coins? With the exception of generic gold and modern coins (plus some Morgan Dollars) there are almost no PCGS coins in dealer’s cases. This means one of three things: PCGS is grading so tightly these days that no one is sending coins there; PCGS coins are so liquid that no one has to display them—they just sell themselves or all the notable PCGS coins wind-up in auction. I’m not sure if I know exactly what the right answer is, but the current disparity between PCGS and NGC product on the market is nothing short of remarkable.

Baltimore is the new Long Beach. As recently as five years ago, Long Beach was a show that I wouldn’t have missed even if I were on my death bed. Today, the show just seems to lack the sizzle it once had. The Baltimore show (which is coming up in March, by the way) seems to have that old electric feeling and I would now rate it as the #3 show of the year, after FUN and Summer ANA.

I had a chance to look at the gold coin lots in the Heritage sale and was thoroughly unimpressed. I personally bid on less than twenty coins and was aggressive on only a handful. There were a few Three Dollar gold pieces I liked and the NGC MS62 1799 Small Stars Eagle was lovely. I also liked the NGC MS60 1844-O eagle and some of the lower valued Saints were attractive.

I spent some time at the ANR table and looked at highlights from their upcoming March sale in Baltimore. Yow!! There are some amazing coins in this sale and I will be discussing them in greater detail in the coming weeks in a series of Raregoldcoins.com Market Reports.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report I

The February 2006 Long Beach Show opened today. Traditionally, Wednesday is a dealers-only event with trading occuring off the floor in the morning and on the bourse in the afternoon and early evening. Buying activity, in my eyes, could be described in three words: really, really difficult. I looked through dozens of dealer's coins today (including a number whose coins I do not look at until later in the show) and I have to admit that this is one of the harder shows I ever attended in terms of buying. There just isn't alot of material out there and what few nice coins there were have staggering price tags attached. I am hopeful that more coins will turn up later in the week but I am not holding my breath...

This is really par for the course at a Long Beach show. For some reason, this is a very hard show to buy at. It has been for many years. I would assume that part of the reason is that the services are tight at Long Beach shows and not many fresh coins get made. I expect that the upcoming Baltimore show in March will present me with more interesting buying opportunities.

But I am not returning empty-handed. I was able to buy around a dozen interesting New Orleans gold coins including a Condiiton Census 1855-O eagle, a lovely AU58 1845-O half eagle, some very high quality quarter eagles and a pleasing "slider" 1855-O gold dollar. I will have these coins listed and imaged on my website by Monday and would suggest you call me at (214) 675-9897 if anything captures your fancy.