Current Market Conditions for Carson City Gold

In honor of the season finale of my favorite TV show “Deadwood”, what better topic for a Monday morning than an examination of current market conditions on Al Swearingen’s favorite coins: Carson City gold. If you read my recent analysis of the Old West collection of Carson City half eagles and eagles which I wrote a few weeks ago, you’ll know that the market for high grade examples of these two denominations seems to be just fine. But what about the more pedestrian material that is generally offered and what about the ever-popular double eagle series?

Half Eagles: I’d have to say that the half eagle denomination is still the weakest of the three gold issues produced at this mint. But the market is clearly stronger now for high grade pieces than it was a month ago. Nice Extremely Fine coins from the 1870’s have become extremely hard to locate; probably because most of the “real” EF45 coins (at least by most standards) are now in AU50 to AU53 holders. It is especially frustrating to try and find half eagles from the 1870’s with original color and surfaces. Most of these have been dipped in an attempt to make them appear more lustrous. There are a few dates from the 1870’s that have become just about impossible to find in EF40 to AU50 and these are worth at least 80-90% of Trends (if not more). Send me an email at dwn@ont.com and I will tell you what these dates are.

The dates from the 1880’s are much more available but most of the pieces I see are overgraded, unoriginal and just plain uninteresting. Any Carson City half eagle from this decade in AU50 and above with a good strike and pleasing original color is scarce and a great value at current levels.

The issues from the 1890’s are fairly plentiful right now but most are in the AU55 to MS62 range. It is still possible to find nice coins from this decade and I’d recommend filling these holes now while the coins still exist.

Eagles: The Carson City eagle market is stronger now than at any time since the mid-1990’s. This is due to the fact that at least three or four very serious buyers have entered the market and most of these collectors are just starting their collections. This means that Finest Known or very high end Condition Census pieces will continue to set record prices when they are offered for sale at public auction. But there are still some good values to be had. The dates from the 1870’s are extremely hard to find with original color and surfaces and any piece grading EF40 or better with really good eye appeal is a great seller right now.

The 1880’s issues are beginning to come into their own, especially in higher grades. In Uncirculated grades, these dates are quite scarce but are still very affordable in comparison to the 1870’s issues. My personal feeling is that any Carson City eagle from the 1880’s in MS60 or better that is priced at under $15,000 is very good value. And nice AU coins priced at $7,500 and under seem to be great value.

The 1890’s issues are becoming more and more popular due to the fact that all four of these can be obtained in Uncirculated for reasonable sums. But prices for finest known or very high end Condition Census examples of these dates have really shot up in the past few months as the new collectors of these coins jockey into the position of putting together sets which contain “unimprovable” examples.

Double Eagles: I was very surprised to see the renewed market strength for virtually all Carson City double eagles at the ANA show. I came to the show with a nice group of common dates in AU55 to MS61 grades and all of the coins I had sold quickly and at very strong prices. I tried to buy other coins at the show and was often quoted as much as 85-95% of Trends from other dealers for coins that were nice but were not “upgrade shots.” I’m not certain if someone is quietly doing a small retail promotion of Carson City double eagles right now but the market certainly seems strong to me.

The early 1870’s dates are, as usual, very strong. The AU50 example of the key 1870-CC in the Heritage Platinum night sale brought well north of $300,000 and I have seen a number of 1871-CC, 1872-CC and 1873-CC double eagles in AU55 and above trade for very strong numbers of late. The scarce, low mintage 1878-CC and 1879-CC are also in very strong demand right now.

The common dates from the 1880’s are still affordable and I think any pretty, original Carson City double eagle from this historic era at under $5,000 is tremendous value. The higher grade coins from this era (in this case MS62 and above) are in great demand right now and these often sell for full Trends or even more to knowledgeable collectors.

The same holds true with the dates from the 1890’s. The low mintage key issue from this decade, the 1891-CC, is in stronger demand that at any time I can remember, even though prices have not yet really shot upwards.

The overall market for Carson City gold coinage, regardless of grade, seems very good right now. The lower priced, lower grade coins have a solid following among collectors while the high grade, one-of-a-kind examples are in extremely strong demand. The only area that seems to be really lagging is ugly, overgraded better date pieces in the $10,000-20,000 range. These are hard to sell because most collectors are being advised to stay away from these and to wait for the right piece for their collection.

The ANA That Would Not End

After a few more days at home and having further decompressed from The ANA That Would Not End, I have some further thoughts/observations on the coin market and on the show itself. * I was very surprised to see almost no significant New Orleans gold coins (with the exception of the double eagles in the Heritage Platinum night sale) in any of the auctions or on the bourse floor. I’ve had a number of people call me and express surprise at the paucity of these coins, especially given the fact that my new book on New Orleans gold was just released, ostensibly spurring the market. I think the absence of these coins is due to three reasons. First, many New Orleans gold coins are genuinely scarce in higher grades. Second, the people who own higher grade New Orleans gold appear to be serious collectors who are in no rush to sell. Third, I would guess that at least a few dealers are quietly buying all of the nice higher grade New Orleans gold they can find in anticipation of successful marketing programs based around my new book.

* Early gold remains very much in demand. I usually buy a decent amount of interesting early gold at a show like the ANA and this year I bought just a few pieces. Despite the fact that prices for early gold have risen considerably in the past few years, the demand for nearly any piece (slabbed or raw, nice or ugly) remains very high and shows no signs of immediate cooling. I can’t recall having seen more than a tiny number of Fat Head (1813-1834 issues) gold at the show and most of what I did see was aggressively priced, to say the least. I think this area of the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future but I would not be surprised to see the more common or the less attractive coins start to show weakness in the next year. Any very rare or very nice early gold remains an excellent long-term hold.

* Although I was at my table or scurrying around buying coins most of the time, I did get a chance to look at some of the exhibits. I was sure glad to know that my tax dollars were going towards paying for an armed SWAT team of US Mint Police to guard the gang of 1933 Double Eagles that were on display. An exhibit that I found much more interesting was a small group of rarities from the Smithsonian including an example of the only Liberty Head gold coin that I have never owned or handled: the 1854-S half eagle. The Mint’s specimen (one of either two or three known) is a lovely slider example that would probably grade MS61 to MS62 was it ever to be slabbed by PCGS or NGC. There were also a few amazing Territorial issues including a superb Wass Molitor $50, a very high grade Mormon $20 and a nice group of Clark Gruber issues.

* In addition to my New Orleans gold book, another reference work that was released at the show was John Dannreuther’s work on die varieties of early gold coins. While the topic of this book sounds a bit esoteric, the book is a wonderful source work on early gold with incredible research from Harry Bass’ notes and superb photography. When you look at most coin books, you can always predict that a better version will come along and outdate the work in question. With the Dannreuther book, I think it is safe to say that the final word on the subject has been written and this book will be to early gold as the Crosby book has been to Colonial coinage. I would also expect that the die variety market for early gold will be stimulated and we may finally see rare early gold varieties get the respect that they deserve among well-heeled collectors.

* I did not attend the pre-show(s) this year but every dealer I spoke with told me that they were duds. Having done very well at the last few pre-shows, I was nervous that my decision to punt this year would backfire and prove expensive. It turned out to be the only thing that kept me sane and allowed me to survive The Show That Would Not End. Wouldn’t it be nice if dealers just said “enough!” and decided to limit their ANA Experience to the coin show and one or two of the auctions which occurred immediately prior to the opening of the convention?

* I’m glad I’m not a big player in the generic gold market because you certainly need very large cojones to actively participate in this market. It always seems that support for certain issues mysteriously erodes whenever supplies increase but that when you need a dozen saints in MS65 (as an example) to fill an order supplies are, mysteriously, as tight as a drum. I appreciated the fact that I was able to make some extra money in the generic gold rally that occurred in the months leading up to ANA. I don’t even mind that I had to give some of that money back when levels dropped at the show. But every time the market drops and rises and then drops and rises again I’m glad that I’m a rare gold specialist.

* The initial reaction to my new Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint book was very favorable. If you haven’t already seen a copy of this book, it is the first work I’ve done with color plates and these images, if I don’t mind saying so, are superb. Unlike most books that employ useless black and white plates, these color images are so lifelike that you’ll (almost) be able to learn how to grade just from looking at the pictures. I sold quite a few hundred books at the show and my publisher tells me that the book is literally flying off the shelves. Well, maybe not flying off the shelves but it is selling pretty decently. Seriously, it’s a great book and you should buy a copy or two for your library. Visit www.transline.com for ordering information.

Importance of Good Pedigrees

Now, more than ever, people are beginning to realize the importance of a good pedigree when it comes to collecting coins. And the reason why people are paying big premiums for good pedigrees is surprising. Read on and I’ll give you my take on why well-pedigreed coins are suddenly selling for big bucks. As I have pointed out time after time, most of the coins that I see these days are not very nice. They have generally been scrubbed or conserved and very few are original. Which is exactly why people love coins from the great old collections like Bass, Eliasberg or Norweb.

If you know where a coin has been for the last ten or thirty or even fifty+ years (as is the case with most of the coins from the three aforementioned collections) you can state, at least some of the time, that the coin is original and that it has not been doctored. Thus, the Bass or Norweb or Eliasberg pedigree acts as a sort of semi-official “blessing” that the coin is original.

Now, it is obviously not the case that every coin with a Bass, Norweb or Eliasberg pedigree is automatically “good.” I have seen a number of coins with Bass pedigrees that clearly have had their appearance changed since they were originally sold.

If you are offered a coin from one of these sales, one of the most obvious things you should do is look at the original catalog and compare the coin to the photographic image. This may be a problem as far as the Eliasberg gold coins go since the images in this sale (which was held in 1982) are poor-quality halftones that show little detail. But the quality of the images in the Norweb and Bass catalogs are generally good enough to use for comparative purposes.

There is one “dirty little secret” about Bass pedigreed coins that many collectors do not know. When the coins were originally graded and slabbed by PCGS, they were designated as being from the Harry W. Bass Collection. If a Bass coin was broken out of the holder and regraded it would lose this designation at PCGS. That’s why some Bass coins are designated simply as being from the “Bass Collection.” These second-generation Bass coins are generally not viewed with the same enthusiasm as the coins with the original designation. The same holds true for Bass coins in NGC holders that were upgraded from the original Bass sales.

Certain pedigrees may be well known to specialists within certain collecting categories but have little significance outside of these boundaries. As an example, if you collect New Orleans gold coins you are familiar with the Pinnacle collection and would pay a premium for this pedigree. But if you collect 20th century gold, a pedigree that has greater significance to you might be the Duckor or Morse collections. One of the reasons that collectors value the Bass, Norweb and Eliasberg pedigrees so highly is that these are three of the few collections sold during the modern era that had impressive runs of coins across the board.

In the art world, the issue of pedigree has been very significant for years. Smart new collectors realize that if a painting had been in the collection of a prominent collector, it is generally a “safer” purchase that if it has been bouncing around between dealers or auctions. The same is true with coins. If , for example, a 1908-S double eagle with a Duckor pedigree is available for sale, I would generally feel that this is going to be a nicer coin than one with no prior pedigree.

Denver ANA Summary

The Denver ANA Convention can, for me at least, be described in one word: disappointing. I had said, in print, that I thought the 2006 would be a very strong show. What I forgot to factor in when I wrote this was that there would be three pre-show auctions which would siphon off well over $75 million of money that would have ordinarily been spent on the bourse floor. I have already mentioned the ANR sale, so I won’t go into greater detail. I did not attend the Superior sale (I decided to go home for the weekend and this was probably the only reason I was able to make it through a very grueling week of coin trading…) but I heard from a number of participants that coins went fairly cheaply and there were some excellent values to be had, especially on generic issues.

Heritage Platinum night was the final auction before the show began. I thought the selection of rare date gold was one of the weakest in recent Platinum night history. However, there were some interesting pieces that did extremely well. This included a lovely PCGS MS61 1796 No Stars quarter eagle that brought over $350,000. Most of the higher grade Charlotte and Dahlonega coins were bought back by consignors but a superb PCGS MS63 1856-C half eagle brought close to $50,000. Proof gold seemed strong as well which is no surprise given the fact that there was almost no notable Proof gold on the bourse floor.

The most interesting group of coins in the Platinum night sale was a run of Type One and Type Two double eagles from the Wyoming Collection. I purchased many of the higher quality New Orleans double eagles at levels that I felt were not cheap but not ridiculous. I wasn’t shocked by the prices that the 1854-O and the 1856-O brought ($287,500 and $316,250, respectively) as pre-sale Internet bidding was very strong for both of these coins. The highlight of the collection was the 1861 Paquet in PCGS MS61 which is one of just two pieces known. It sold to an Internet bidder for $1,610,000 which is a world record price for any Liberty Head gold coin at public auction.

The show itself began on Tuesday with PNG day. This is usually the slowest day of the show but even by usual standards this year’s edition was tremendously slow. In fact, the convention room was so lackluster and buzz-free that there were times I was very seriously wondering if we weren’t witnessing a Market Meltdown ala the infamous 1980 Central States show in Omaha where a roaring bull market ended with a whimper.

Things picked up somewhat on Wednesday and I thought that Thursday was fairly busy, although not nearly as much so for me as at previous ANA shows. Friday was my best day. I sold a number of expensive coins and met a few very interesting new collectors who are contemplating serious commitments in the arena of 19th and 20th century gold coinage.

For me one of the highlights was getting to see the collection of Bust Quarters formed by the Pogue family. It was on display at a dealer’s table and Brett Pogue showed me the coins individually and discussed their pedigrees. The Pogue collection is probably the single greatest collection of American coins formed during the modern era. I’ve had a chance to see a number of the coins in the collection and I can’t recall having ever seen a piece that was not exquisite. The hallmark of the collection is originality and it was amazing how evenly matched these coins were; with their wonderful coloration and complete originality.

After a week of being at a coin show, I have some observations about the market:

* There is no question whatsoever that the market is now very much a two-tier affair. There are really good coins and there is everything else. If you had really good coins at the ANA, you could ask nearly any price for them and they would sell. If you had boring coins, you had to price them at a good discount to generate any interest.

* This was the hardest buying show I can ever remember. While I did spend well north of $1 million dollars at the auctions, I was amazed at how bone dry the bourse floor was. When it came to deals, this year’s ANA was dry as well. I was offered two very interesting collections. I passed on both; one because I though the price was too high and on the other because it contained too many coins for me to deal with at one time. For better or worse, nearly all of the interesting fresh coins are going into the auctions.

* The quality of the typical Southern branch mint gold coin I saw was atrocious. There are some nice coins out there (I bought a few of them) but most of the Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I saw were overgraded and unoriginal. If you own crusty original C+D coinage, you have something really rare, regardless of date, denomination or grade.

* The market for Three Dollar gold pieces has softened. There were a number of pieces on the market. However, it should be pointed out that many of these were not nice and the really interesting dates in the series (such as the 1858, 1865, 1877 and the low mintage issues from the 1880’s) remained strong. The biggest correction was for higher grade coins (MS64 and better) in the common and semi-common category. MS66 Three Dollar gold pieces have dropped between 20% and 30% in recent weeks but are still worth considerably more than they were two years ago.

* The generic gold market is very soft right now. I would avoid speculating in this area unless you are able to follow pricing on a near-daily basis but it seems like some market areas are pretty good short-term plays right now.

* After getting a little panicky about the market at the beginning of the show, I am able to look at it with better perspective today, especially now that I’ve finally been able to sleep in my own bed for a night. I think we will see some short-term weakness in the market, especially in areas such as generic gold and “uninteresting” coins. But I think the market for really rare and really expensive coins is better now than it’s ever been. As long as the stock market remains flat (and it’s been as flat as a pancake for the last five years) you’ll see a strong market. The clear indicator of a weak coin market will be when stocks rebound and investors pull their money out of coins and go back to stocks.

Coin Cleaning

The market’s definition of what is acceptable regarding cleaned coins has evolved considerably over the course of time. When PCGS and NGC were established, the coin market was overrun with problem coins. Whizzing, which involves using a wire brush on the surfaces of a coin to simulate mint luster, had been prevalent in the 1970’s but more sophisticated methods were beginning to emerge. Third-party grading established some basic guidelines regarding cleaning.

In the early days of the two major services, standards regarding cleaning were overly rigorous. Circulated rare date coins with light, unobtrusive hairlines were “body bagged” or were brutally net graded. What the services failed to realize was that a large percentage of circulated rare date gold coins had been lightly cleaned in the past and coins without hairlines were exceptionally hard to find. Standards were changed over the years and today, it is common to see lightly hairlined coins in holders. This does not bother me.

PCGS and NGC’s early decision to be hard on hairlines had an interesting effect on many coins. Certain dealers began using putty or other substances to cover these hairlines so that “no grade” coins could get into holders. As a result, many coins which would be considered gradable by today’s standards were covered with foreign substances. I see coins like this in most every auction and on the bourse floor. In fact, I even buy them on occasion and it is interesting how nice many of them are once the goop on the surfaces has been removed.

I don’t know if there is any scientific formula at PCGS or NGC regarding what is or what is not acceptable regarding hairlines. In my experience, I find that both services tend to be more tolerant of a coin that has light or no hairlines on the obverse coupled with more dense hairlines on the reverse. A coin with noticeable hairlines on both sides is almost certainly not going to be encapsulated unless it is a major rarity (more on this in a second). Deeply toned coins that hide hairlines are far more likely to be encapsulated than light coins on which the hairlines are clearly noted.

There are varying degrees of cleaning and generally speaking, the more harsh the cleaning, the more likely a coin is to be a no-grade. If a coin has been wire brushed or cleaned with a harsh abrasive, this is not considered to be market acceptable. If a coin has been dipped or lightly washed in soap and water, it is considered to be market acceptable and will almost always be encapsulated. (Dipping is a whole story in itself. Is it harmful to a coin’s surfaces? Probably, even if done properly. Do most dealers and collectors do it on occasion? Absolutely.)

There are coins which walk the fine line between being market acceptable and non-acceptable. As an example, many coins have been wiped with jeweler’s cloths over the years. A wiped coin is generally somewhat dull and lifeless but it may not have any actual hairlines—just a “look” that clearly indicates it was wiped. On a common, generic issue, wiping is almost guaranteed to get a coin no-graded. But on a rarer issue or on a piece of early gold, where grading standards may be more relaxed, light wiping may be considered market acceptable.

Cleaning methods have become far more sophisticated in recent years. The gold coins that were in the S.S. Central America and S.S. Republic shipwrecks underwent very sophisticated cleanings in order to make them market acceptable and to remove encrustation caused by a century of exposure to seawater. Many collectors cried foul and complained that these coins should not have been slabbed. I disagree with this. The majority of the coins that I have seen from these shipwrecks have an appearance that is totally market acceptable. And, they are clearly noted on the holder by both PCGS and NGC as coming from a shipwreck.

What I have more trouble with, from an ethical point of view, is when a grading service conserves a coin and does not indicate on the slab that this process has been undertaken. Not everyone is like me who likes dirty, original coins and there is certainly a place in the market for bright, highly reflective pieces. I would just like coins like to be noted as being “restored” so that less sophisticated buyers are made aware of what they are purchasing.

I mentioned earlier that rare dates and types are graded on a different standard than common issues. This has always been the case in the coin market and it will continue to be this way. A 1796 No Stars quarter eagle that has been lightly cleaned at one time but which still has a decent overall appearance is a very desirable coin that will invariably be encapsulated. A 1926 quarter eagle with the same degree of cleaning will most likely not be encapsulated. The former is a $100,000 coin while the latter is worth $200. It makes sense (at least to me…) that the very expensive coin is going to be treated differently than the cheaper coin.

Cleaning and its impact on grading remains one of the most controversial topics in all of numismatics. Clearly, what was acceptable to collectors and the grading services in 1986 changed greatly in 2006 and will, no doubt, be substantially different in 2026.

Importance of Timing When Assembling a Collection

When assembling a collection, timing is truly everything. This goes for when you are in the process of adding to the collection or when you are disassembling it. In this article, I’ll explain how timing will, no doubt, affect you in the assembling of your set. I can’t count the number of times I have said to collectors that their holdings need to be looked at as a long-term endeavor. One of the truly amazing phenomenons of the Internet-driven coin market is that a new generation of collectors believes it is possible to very quickly assemble a set and then, just as quickly, consign it to an auction company and make a nice profit. In a rising coin market this has (sometimes) proven to be possible. But if and when the coin market corrects, I believe that you will see a return to the “old values” of assembling a collection that worked so well for the great collectors of past generations.

If you are assembling a world-class collection, you have to look at your collection as a series of opportunities. By this I mean that you have to be prepared to buy important coins for your set when the right opportunities arise. One of these is what I call the “generational turn.”

A generational turn occurs when an older collector decides that it is time to sell and he puts his coins on the market. This may occur when the collector is alive or his estate may make the decision for him. In a situation like this, it may mean that a number of coins that have not been available for a generation or more are finally up for sale.

For a younger collector, a generational turn may represent the only chance to acquire certain high grade, rare coins. As an example, for many collectors of United States gold coins, the sale of the Harry Bass collection in a series of four auctions from 1999 to 2001 enabled them to acquire a number of very rare coins that had been off the market since the 1960’s or 1970’s. In the ensuing half decade since the conclusion of the Bass sales, many of the coins offered in those auctions have not reappeared. Clearly, these went to serious collectors who were smart enough to know that this generational turn would be their only chance to acquire specific rare issues in high grades.

One reason that it is very important to stay on top of the developments in your field of specialization is to know, in advance, when a generational turn might occur. If you are, for example, very plugged into the demimonde of St. Gaudens double eagle collectors, you might know that Collector X is going to be selling his set of coins in the next six months and that there are at least three or four important rarities in this set that you would really like to own. Having this lead time to prepare yourself financially and mentally to acquire these coins is far preferable to simply picking up a copy of Coin World one day and seeing that this collector’s set is suddenly going to be sold at auction by Heritage or ANR.

Looking at the concept of the generational turn from the other point of view, as an older collector it is always important to pick a time in the market when there are younger, newer collectors clamoring for your fresh material. Now, obviously, no one knows exactly the right time to sell. But common sense dictates that it makes a lot more sense to sell when your area of specialization is “hot” than when no one really cares.

If you go back and study the coin market in the past few decades there are numerous points in time when a seller clearly made a bad decision to liquidate his holdings. An example that comes to mind is the Chestatee collection of Dahlonega gold that was sold in the 1999 ANA auction. There had already been two huge collections of Dahlonega gold sold at auction earlier that year (in the FUN and February Long Beach sales) and by the time the Chestatee coins became available, the market was clearly saturated. As a result, these coins sold very cheaply and the Dahlonega market entered a downward spiral that took a number of years to recover from.

If you have the luxury of deciding on an orderly schedule of dispersal for your collection, choose a point in time when your collection will be appreciated by a younger generation of specialists.

As a buyer, keep your powder dry and make certain that you are ready to be aggressive at the points in time when you are accorded unusual opportunities to acquire rare and/or exceptional items.

Misc. Reader Questions

was recently asked a few interesting questions by a reader and thought it might be interesting to answer them. In no order, here they are: Q: In auction catalog descriptions, are there certain giveaways that lead you to think the cataloger doesn’t like the coin?

A: A good auction cataloger is like a good journalist: impartial and able to state facts without imposing personal prejudices. That said, catalogers are only human and it is possible to “read between the lines” and figure out subtle hints that catalogers don’t like the coins they are describing. I’ve always thought a good clue was when the cataloger talks about every possible thing except the coin itself. In other words, he mentions the coin’s rarity, its history and its contextual significance but “forgets” to mention what the coin itself looks like. There are other little clues like describing a circulated coin as “bright” or referring to coloration as “unusual” or “smoky” or “hazy.” I’d also beware of instances when a readily visible mark isn’t mentioned. If a mark is mentioned, it generally isn’t that bad. If it is “overlooked” than it is often so bad that the cataloger can’t find a way to nicely mention it.

Q: Why are different gold coins different colors?

A: There are actually two different answers to this question: the classic, “old school” answer and the “today’s market” answer. In the classic sense, a gold coin is a certain color because of the alloy used in its production. As an example, early Charlotte and Dahlonega gold often used Appalachian gold which had a considerable amount of silver included in the alloy. As a result, these coins often display a green-gold color. San Francisco coins used gold from California which had a high copper content which gave the gold a reddish or rose-gold tint. Unfortunately, few circulated gold coins remain that have not been dipped or which have not been recolored. Today’s color gradations are often more a result of the chemical that was used in recoloring the surfaces. As an example, many gold coins are seen with an unnatural tangerine-orange hue which is the result of a certain type of chemical used to recolor the surfaces.

Q: Why are NGC gold coin populations so much higher than PCGS populations?

A: I think there are two answers. The first and more politically correct is that NGC simply grades more rare date gold coins than PCGS does. Many of the major submitters of these coins send the majority of their coins to NGC and, thus, more have been graded. This is especially true with Liberty Head issues. For 20th century gold coinage, PCGS has actually graded a fairly comparable number of coins and, in the case of certain generic issues, they have actually graded more than NGC. I notice a huge difference between populations on rare dates in AU58. I think the reason for this is the combination of the fact that NGC is looser with this grade than PCGS and PCGS has done a better job, especially of late, in cleaning up their population report.

Do you have any interesting questions? Please send me an email and, if possible, I will answer them at some point in the future.

Heritage August Signature Sale Preview

I recently returned from Dallas where I was viewing auction lots for Heritage’s August Signature Sale. Heritage never seems to run out of coins to sell and, as usual, their catalogs were massive. In fact, I am thinking of charging them for a chiropractic visit as a result of a throbbing shoulder courtesy of having to schlep the catalogs through DFW and Portland airports in my now-deformed briefcase. Now that I’m back home, I’ve had a chance to analyze the Heritage sales and thought I’d share my thoughts about the coins that are being sold.

For the most part, I was more impressed with the non-gold in the sale than the gold. One item that really caught my eye was Lot 5055, which is an amazing NGC MS67 1862 Indian Cent die cap. For the most part, I am not a really big fan of errors but this was the error to end all errors. A die cap is caused when a planchet gets stuck in the die and the planchet is repeatedly struck. As a result, this die cap shows amazing detail on the coin itself and a stunning fan-shaped pattern with no less than eight distinct tabs. If I am not mistaken, this piece was in an ANR sale around three years ago but, for whatever reason, it really caught my attention this time. I would not be surprised to see this spectacular piece break the $50,000 mark.

Another coin that was pretty remarkable was Lot 5264, a 1906-S half dollar graded MS69 (!) by NGC. This is the only business strike barber half dollar ever graded this high by either service and the coin was awfully nice. Did NGC get carried away a little with the grade? Probably. Does a finer business strike Barber half dollar exist? Possibly. But, man, was this a seriously lovely coin!

Enough of this non-gold chit chat. You are reading this blog to know my thoughts on the gold coins in the sale. My overall impression was that the quality was spotty. There were some great single coins here and there and a nifty collection of Liberty Head double eagles but I did not find this to be one of Heritage’s more impressive offerings of gold.

It was interesting to compare the coins in old holders (i.e., the ones that were “fresh”) versus the ones that were “maxed out.” An example of a lovely fresh coin was Lot 5417, a PCGS MS61 1796 No Stars quarter eagle. Unlike most of the examples of this celebrated date that have been offered in recent years, this piece wasn’t stripped of its original color and had a lot of luster below its attractive color. But just so you don’t think that I automatically go ga-ga over any coin in an old green label PCGS holder, the next lot, a PCGS AU58 1796 With Stars quarter eagle showed an old cleaning on its obverse and, even by today’s inflated standards, was not really high end for the grade.

I have to mention the NGC PR67 1879 Flowing Hair Stella because I can’t resist writing the following: it was one Helluva Stella. If I were in the market for a killer example of this type, I’d buy this coin. It was superb.

I was fairly underwhelmed by the rest of the early gold and much of the branch mint issues although a few treasures did poke their little plastic heads up from time to time. You have to begin to wonder, are there any original Charlotte and Dahlonega coins left? Have the coin doctors gotten to every last piece? It was interesting looking at the high grade Philadelphia coins, which had original surfaces and comparing them to their doctored branch mint counterparts. One coin I did love was Lot 5507, an 1856-C half eagle in PCGS MS63. It was easily the finest example of this rare date that I have ever seen.

And, believe it or not, there were some Proof gold coins in the sale with original hazy surfaces (!) I was beginning to wonder if any of these had survived the dipping trays and chemistry sets of America’s coin dealers… If you’d like to know what a piece of original Proof gold looks like, study Lots 5514 and 5516.

For me, the most interesting deal in the sale was the Wyoming Collection of Liberty Head double eagles. I had sold some of the coins in this set to the owner and was excited when I heard his collection was for sale.

The star attraction of the collection is the 1861 Paquet reverse double eagle (Lot 5623). While not really widely known outside of the gold collecting community, this is actually the second rarest regular issue American gold coin, trailing only the 1870-S Three Dollar. Only two examples are known and it will be very interesting to see what this piece will bring. I predict it will bring between $1.5 and $2 million.

The sale includes a full run of New Orleans double eagles including the very rare 1854-O and 1856-O. Both are graded AU50 by PCGS and it will be interesting to see if prices for these two coins continue the amazing upwards march that they have shown for the past five years.

I will be attending the Heritage sale on August 13th and August 14th and would be pleased to provide you with auction representation service. If you are interested, please contact me immediately.

Pricing MS61 Gold Coins

Coin World Trends lists prices for every Uncirculated grade between MS60 and MS65 with the exception of MS61. So, how does one go about figuring a price for a coin graded MS61 by PCGS or NGC? This depends on a numbers of factors: what is the price differential between MS60 and MS62? How rare is the coin in MS61 and in the grades above this? How strong a level of demand is there for the specific date in this grade? And, of course, you must consider that old favorite: what does the coin look like? In other words, is the fact that it’s in an MS61 holder make any difference regarding its appearance versus if it were graded MS60?

The obvious solution to pricing an MS61 would be to take the MS60 and MS62 Trends values for a coin, add them together and then divide this number in half. Let’s pick a coin and try this and see what happens.

I am going to randomly select an 1857-C half eagle in MS61 for this experiment. The Trends value of this coin is $10,000 in MS60 and $20,000 in MS62. Add these two numbers together and you get $30,000, divide this in half and you get $15,000. Assuming that this coin is worth around 70% of Trends, our formula states that this coin should have a retail value of around $10,500.

Now let’s go on the Heritage Auction Archives and see what the last few MS61 examples of this date have sold for at auction. Between January 1998 and the present date, this firm has sold three PCGS MS61 examples for $7,130, $7,188 and $8,912 respectively as well as an NGC example for $8,970. So much for our MS61 value formula and its premise that an MS61 1857-C half eagle should be worth $10,500.

So what is this coin worth? Well, in MS60 Trends is $10,000. Assuming an MS60 is worth 70% of Trends (and I think this figure is high, given the assumption that most MS60 Charlotte half eagles are not very nice coins from the standpoint of appearance), we can state that this coin is worth around $7,000 in MS60. Even though Trends jumps significantly in MS62, there are enough coins graded in MS60 and MS61 to satisfy the admittedly limited demand for this date. My feeling is that an MS61 example of this particular coin should only command a premium of 10-15%, giving it a fair retail value of around $7,700-8,050. And the market seems to agree with this, using the four action appearances cited above as reference points.

Now that we know this formula is a dud, what is a good way to determine the value of an MS61 rare date gold coin? As I mentioned above, there are a lot of factors at hand.

What if a coin has very little difference in rarity between an MS60 and an MS61? An example of this would be an 1887-S double eagle. Now this is a fairly scarce and fairly popular date in a very widely collected series. But it shows a current PCGS population of 39 coins in MS60 and 126 in MS61. The current Trends value for this date is $1,500 in MS60 and I would be a seller in the $1,100-1,300 range. I don’t think an MS61 would command much of a premium at all; possibly a few hundred dollars at most.

What’s an example where a one point increase from MS60 to MS61 could make a significant price increase? Let’s look at a rare coin in a popular series.

The 1856-O eagle is a truly rare coin in Uncirculated grades. PCGS has a population of just one coin in MS60 with none better while NGC shows a population of three in MS60 and none above this. There is no Trends value listed for this issue in MS60 while CDN Quarterly Bid is $13,500. I would be a very willing buyer of the PCGS MS60 example of this date for $15,000; possibly even more if I thought it were nice for the grade. But what would this issue be worth in MS61? Assuming that the coin was solid for the grade, I think it would be a $30,000+ item. Why the huge price increase between MS60 and MS61? It would be a finest known example of a truly rare coin in a series in which there are enthusiastic, deep-pocketed buyers.

I have suggested to the Editor of Coin World Trends that they eliminate the Fine-12 column for gold coins (a grade that many issues do not even exist in) and, instead, add values for the more popular and more often seen MS61 grade. But until this is actually done, the collector will have to use some creativity in determining what an MS61 is actually worth.