July 2006 Coin Market Assessment

When’s the last time you a coin dealer told you the market was going to be slow for a while? Take a deep breath…July is going to be a slow month. I think a short-term slow-down in the market is actually much needed and will, in the long run, be good for everyone’s mental health.

Just think about it. For the last few years nearly every month the coin market has seen never-ending auctions, continual shows and intense flurries of activity. I, for one, am tired. I’m not asking for this paragraph to be accompanied by strings but I could use a break. And you know what? I’m going to take it easy for the next few weeks.

A number of factors are conspiring to make the upcoming four to six weeks a slow-down period. First of all, with the exception of the Baltimore show (July 13-16), there are no significant conventions. Secondly, there are (as amazing as it seems…) no major auctions until the middle of August. Thirdly, the slowdown in metals prices has brought some activity to a halt. And, finally, it’s the summer. People are taking vacations and enjoying the nice weather.

Now I know some dealers just never slow down and they will tell you that they’ll be as busy as ever in July. Don’t believe them because they won’t be. There are just not a lot of coins available now and even the seemingly-insatiable demand of early 2006 has slowed down.

Will this fallow period last long?

Nope. Be prepared for a very active August as the pre-ANA and ANA auctions come around and then the ANA convention takes place. I personally think this year’s ANA will be a true barn-burner and am bracing for one of the busiest shows of my professional career.

I’m told that between the auctions being conducted by Superior, ANR, Bowers and Merena and Heritage that there will be well over 10,000 lots with a value of over $50 million available for sale. Am I worried if the market can absorb them? Not really. This has now happened for the past three or four summers and every year, despite dire end-of-the-world prognostications from certain quarters, the market seems to be doing just fine, thank you.

What really worries me is how I’m going to physically handle viewing four auctions, attending God knows how many sessions, being at the coin show for four or five days for ten hours each day and, gasp, having to wear nice clothes for a week.

I’m planning on enjoying my new place of residence (Portland is phenomenally nice in the summer, FYI), working on a top-secret new book project and getting a tan so I look spiffy in those nice clothes that you’ll see me in Denver this August.