Dahlonega Gold Coins: An Overall And Comparative Analysis

Using the revised estimated populations of specific issues in the second edition of my book, it is possible to make some interesting observations and conclusions regarding Dahlonega coinage. As an example, it is possible to estimate an average number of survivors for each denomination, a percentage of survivors by grade and an overall percentage of survival for a entire denomination. I. GOLD DOLLARS

ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION/NUMBER EXTANT: 1,295 - 1,435 TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUES STRUCK: 13 AVERAGE EXTANT PER ISSUE: 115 - 131

TOTAL EXTANT BY GRADE:

Very Fine and Below: 291 - 346 Extremely Fine: 601 - 672 About Uncirculated: 483 - 538 Uncirculated: 120 - 154

PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY GRADE:

Very Fine and Below: 19.46 - 20.23 Extremely Fine: 39.29 - 40.20 About Uncirculated: 31.46 - 32.30 Uncirculated: 8.02 - 9.00

ORIGINAL MINTAGE FIGURE, ALL ISSUES: 73,529 - 74,029

(NOTE: The original mintage figure for the gold dollar series as a whole is expressed as a range due to the fact that the exact original mintage figure for the 1861-D is not known).

ESTIMATED SURVIVAL RATE: 2.03 - 2.30%

(NOTE: This range of survival rates is, again, based on the fact that the original mintage figure for the 1861-D is unknown but it is believed to be 1,000-1,500 coins).

ANALYSIS: This data clearly shows that gold dollars are easier to locate in higher grades than their quarter eagle and half eagle counterparts (see below). The average number of coins known per issue is a bit lower than one might expect. But, given the small size of these coins, it is a wonder that as many have survived as are known today.

It is interesting to note the survival rate for other gold dollars. For branch mint coins struck in the pre-Civil War era, we can generally assume that only one to two percent of the original mintage figures still exists. The range of estimates which are listed above fit in nicely within these parameters.

Dahlonega gold dollars are more available in higher grades (i.e. About Uncirculated and Uncirculated) than the quarter eagles and half eagles from this mint. Approximately 40% of all known Dahlonega gold dollars grade About Uncirculated or Uncirculated and approximately 80% grade Extremely Fine or better. This is considerably higher than for the other denominations. This suggests at least two things: that Dahlonega gold dollars did not circulate as long and as "hard" as the other denominations and that relatively substantial quantities of Dahlonega gold dollars have become available to collectors as the result of hoards and/or accumulations. Another possible explanation for the high survival rate in higher grades might be that their small size did not make them as attractive to melters as the large-sized gold issues and they were more likely to survive.

The overall populations of many dates in the gold dollar series have been underestimated for many years. As an example, in the 1960's and the 1970's it had been written that "fewer than a dozen" 1856-D gold dollars were known. We now know that the actual number of 1856-D gold dollars in existence is more like 80-90. One of the reasons for the overstating of the rarity of the 1856-D (along with the 1854-D, 1855-D, 1860-D and 1861-D) is that these issues had tiny original mintage figures. The 1856-D is a good choice to illustrate this. Only 1,460 pieces were struck. Using the assumption that between 0.27 and 1.14% of these pieces should exist (the estimated survival rates for Dahlonega quarter eagles and half eagles from this mint; see below) one can see how an estimate of "fewer than a dozen" might have come about. Dahlonega gold dollars are a good example of the adage that you can't judge the rarity of a specific issue solely by its original mintage figure.

II. QUARTER EAGLES

ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION/NUMBER EXTANT: 2,345 - 2,715 TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUES STRUCK: 20 AVERAGE EXTANT PER ISSUE: 117.25 - 135.75

TOTAL EXTANT BY GRADE:

Very Fine and Below: 832 - 901 Extremely Fine: 862 - 975 About Uncirculated: 561 - 653 Uncirculated: 90 - 106

PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY GRADE:

Very Fine and Below: 33.18 - 35.47 Extremely Fine: 35.91 - 36.75 About Uncirculated: 23.92 - 24.05 Uncirculated: 3.83 - 3.90

ORIGINAL MINTAGE FIGURE, ALL ISSUES: 197,850

ESTIMATED SURVIVAL RATE: 1.18 - 1.37%

ANALYSIS: Quarter eagles are the rarest of the three primary Dahlonega gold denominations, both in terms of their overall rarity and their rarity in high grades. Around 70% of all known Dahlonega quarter eagles are in lower grades - i.e. Extremely Fine and below. This shows that quarter eagles saw greater circulation than gold dollars and that fewer were saved.

With only 4% or so of all the known Dahlonega quarter eagles grading Uncirculated, one can properly assume that any date is very rare in this grade. With the exception of a small handful of issues (such as the 1839-D, 1844-D, 1847-D, 1848-D and 1857-D), Dahlonega quarter eagles have Uncirculated populations which generally number from one to five pieces. Since the demand for very high grade examples is far greater than the supply, it can be assumed that values for such pieces should rise.

According to the estimates above, it is possible that fewer than 1.4% of all the Dahlonega quarter eagles originally struck have survived. If these numbers are correct, the survival rate for these coins is below the average for American gold coins struck prior to the Civil War.

III. HALF EAGLES

ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION/NUMBER EXTANT: 3,940 - 4,560 TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUES STRUCK: 25 (NOTE: The 1846-D Normal Mintmark and the 1846 D over D Mintmark are included as one issue) AVERAGE EXTANT PER ISSUE: 157.60 - 182.40

TOTAL EXTANT BY GRADE:

Very Fine and Below: 1,623 - 1,841 Extremely Fine: 1,389 - 1,611 About Uncirculated: 759 - 892 Uncirculated: 167 - 214

PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY GRADE:

Very Fine and Below: 40.37 - 41.19 Extremely Fine: 35.25 - 35.32 About Uncirculated: 19.26 - 19.56 Uncirculated: 4.23 - 4.69

ORIGINAL MINTAGE FIGURE, ALL ISSUES: 1,096,544

ESTIMATED SURVIVAL RATE: 0.35 - 0.41%

ANALYSIS: Half eagles are the most plentiful denomination from the Dahlonega in terms of the total number of coins which exist. This makes sense since the original mintage figure is six times greater for half eagles than for quarter eagles and over sixty times greater than for gold dollars.

In terms of relative rarity, half eagles are also the most common Dahlonega denomination. An average of 157-182 examples exist per issue; a figure which is significantly greater than either the quarter eagles or gold dollars from this mint.

What is surprising is the survival rate of half eagles when viewed as a whole. According to the numbers above, around four-tenths of one per cent of all Dahlonega half eagles have survived. If these figures are correct (and there is certainly the possibility that my population estimates are too low), then the survival rate for this denomination is significantly lower than for gold dollars and half eagles.

There are some plausible explanations for this. Half eagles were "workhorse" coins and saw longer periods of circulation. Due to their greater intrinsic value, they were more likely to have been melted. Their greater face value (and intrinsic worth) made it less likely that quantities would have been put away or "lost."

In terms of actual numbers, there are a fairly significant amount of higher grade (About Uncirculated and better) Dahlonega half eagles in existence. But taken as a percentage of the total number of known coins--approximately 23 to 24%-- the number of high grade coins is actually lower than for gold dollars and quarter eagles. It is my opinion, however, that high grade quarter eagles are still the most difficult coins from the Dahlonega Mint to locate.

There is little difference in comparative rarity between Very Fine and Extremely Fine Dahlonega half eagles. The price levels between choice Very Fine coins and lower quality Extremely Fine coins are greater than they should be and it is likely that these levels will grow closer over the course of time. Conversely, the supply of truly choice half eagles is more limited than generally believed and as the demand for these increases, such coins will show strong price appreciation.

IV. OVERALL ANALYSIS OF DAHLONEGA GOLD COINAGE

By taking the numbers above, we can get a more comprehensive analysis of the various Dahlonega issues.

DENOM. GRADES TOTAL VF EF AU MS

$1.00 291-346 601-672 483-538 120-154 1295-1435

$2.50 832-901 862-975 561-653 90-106 2345-2715

$3.00 47-54 29-40 22-27 2-4 100-125

$5.00 1623-1841 1389-1611 759-892 167-214 3940-4560

TOTALS: 2793-3142 2881-2110 1825-2110 379-478 7680-8835

These numbers prove a number of interesting things about Dahlonega gold coinage. Some of the more important points are as follows:

The total number of Dahlonega gold coins that exists is probably under 10,000 pieces. Since fewer than 1.5 million coins were originally struck at this mint, this means that the overall survival rate is around two-thirds of one per cent.

Dahlonega gold coins are of nearly similar rarity in Very Fine and Extremely Fine grades. They are about 50% scarcer in About Uncirculated than Extremely Fine and they are very rare in Uncirculated.

Around five percent of the surviving Dahlonega gold coins grade Mint State. However, when one omits the few issues that are common in high grades, such as the 1849-D and 1859-D gold dollars and the 1853-D and 1856-D half eagles, this percentage drops appreciably.

Gold dollars are much more available in high grades than the other denominations. From a percentage standpoint, the rarest denomination in high grades is the quarter eagle.

The market capitalization for high grade Dahlonega gold coinage is much lower than one might think. As an example, let's assume that the median value of all Uncirculated issues from this mint is $15,000. There are approximately 379-478 Uncirculated Dahlonega coins known. An investor could buy all the known coins for $5.685 to 7.170 million. It is not likely that this person would be able to acquire every known Uncirculated Dahlonega coin but it is interesting to note that the dollar value of these coins is not absurdly high.

Collectible Varieties of Dahlonega Gold Coins

Your set of Dahlonega coins is complete or nearly complete. You aren't interested in upgrading what you own but you still want to actively participate in the Dahlonega market. What's a frustrated collector to do? Try collecting the major varieties of Dahlonega coinage. Chances are, you're already doing this, even if you don't realize it. As an example, your set of half eagles probably contains examples of the 1842-D Large Date and Small Date. And the chances are equally as good that you have the 1846-D Normal Mintmark and Repunched Mintmark half eagles.

There are some other significant varieties that should be included in a comprehensive set of Dahlonega coinage. A number are now recognized by PCGS, giving them further cachet among collectors. Here are some of the more interesting varieties, as well as some basic information about them.

1855-D Full Date Gold Dollar

Unlike the other coins listed in the body of this article, the 1855-D Full Date is not a die variety. It is, in fact, a variation in strike; similar to a Full Bands Mercury dime or a Full Bell Lines Franklin half dollar. The 1855-D gold dollar is notorious for its weakness of strike and around 90% of the known specimens are weak on the date. Those that show a full, sharp date (with all four digits clearly visible) are considered extremely desirable by collectors. In fact, sophisticated collectors are now willing to pay a premium as high as 50% for an 1855-D gold dollar with a full, sharp date.

While I am generally opposed to paying premiums for variation in strike, this is one case where I think an added premium makes great sense. In the future, I would not be surprised if the difference in price between typical strike and Full Date 1855-D gold dollars grows even further apart.

1839-D Bold Branch Quarter Eagle

There are two varieties known for the 1839-D quarter eagle. The more common (Winter 1-A) has a weak branch stem that extends to over the upright of the D in the denomination. The rarer has a bold branch stem that is located entirely to the left of the D in the denomination.

This variety is not as likely to be included in advanced collections as the other listed here. But the popularity of the Classic Head series gives it a greater chance than comparable Liberty Head quarter eagles varieties.

1843-D Large Mintmark Quarter Eagle

There are four die varieties known for this issue. Three employ a small mintmark while the fourth has a large mintmark. There were only 3,537 pieces produced with the large mintmark (all were made on October 7, 1843) and this variety can be readily distinguished from its large mintmark counterpart with the naked eye.

As a side note, how does one decide whether or not a variety merits consideration in a collection? I like to use what I call the "Wife Test." If I show my wife Mary a variety and she can easily understand its significance, it passes. If I show her another variety and she looks at me like I'm speaking Greek, it fails. The 1843-D Large Mintmark quarter eagle passed the Wife Test.

1846-D/D Quarter Eagle

The 1846-D Near D (so-called because the original mintmark was punched too far to the left of the regular mintmark) quarter eagle has become very popular in recent years and is now included in most quarter eagle collections. It is actually less rarer than generally believed in Very Fine and Extremely Fine but it is quite rare in the lower About Uncirculated grades, extremely rare in the higher AU grades and currently unique in Uncirculated.

When purchasing this variety, it is important to remember to look for an early die state (as illustrated on page 110 of my book "Gold Coins of the Dahlonega Mint, 1838-1861."). It is my opinion that this will be the most readily accepted Dahlonega quarter eagle variety in the coming years.

1839-D Centered Mintmark Half Eagle

In my opinion, the 1839-D half eagle is among the more interesting Dahlonega issues. It is a distinct one year type coin with a different Liberty Head than that seen on the issues from 1840 onwards. And, it is the only Liberty Head half eagle from this mint with the mintmark on the obverse.

The majority of 1839-D half eagles have the mintmark positioned slightly to the right, over the 39 in the date. The rarer variety has the mintmark more centrally placed, over the 3 in the date. In addition to being rare, this variety is almost always seen with weakness of strike at the central obverse. For some reason, it is exceptionally hard to locate examples of this variety with original color and I have not seen more than one or two that graded higher than About Uncirculated-50.

This variety is slightly more esoteric than others listed here, but I feel that it has a good chance to be recognized as an important addition to a set of Dahlonega half eagles.

1840-D Small Mintmark Half Eagle

The 1840-1843 period saw considerable experimentation at the mint. In the half eagle series, there were experiments with date size, mintmark size and lettering. These varieties form a very interesting group for the Dahlonega collector.

In 1840, most of the half eagles produced at the Dahlonega mint had a tall, medium size mintmark. A less substantial number display a small, more narrow mintmark. This variety is easily recognized by the presence of a reverse die crack that runs through the right diagonal of the V in FIVE up through the right side of the mintmark and into the shield. It appears that the 1840-D Small D half eagle is very rare, especially in grades higher than About Uncirculated-50.

1841-D Medium Mintmark Half Eagle

The 1841-D Medium D half eagle (PCGS designates this variety as the "Tall D") uses the same reverse as seen on the 1840-D Medium D half eagle. It is believed that a total of 4,105 1841-D Medium D half eagles were produced as compared to 25,287 examples of the more common 1841-D Small D. A very interesting late die state exists that shows the obverse heavily shattered by four distinct cracks that converge at the back of Liberty's ear. An example of this variety was Lot 369 in the Bass IV sale. It is now in the Auraria collection of Dahlonega half eagles.

1843-D Small Mintmark Half Eagle

The 1843-D Small D is probably the best known of the three major mintmark varieties seen on Dahlonega half eagles during the early 1840's. It uses the same reverse as on the 1842-D Small Date, Large Letters half eagle. It shares the same obverse as the 1843-D Large D half eagle but in an earlier state, lacking the three tiny die lumps between stars one and two as seen on that variety. The 1843-D Small D appears to be considerably more rare than its Large D counterpart and it is beginning to sell for a premium.

1848-D/D Half Eagle

This is a variety that has become fairly well-known in recent years but it is still misunderstood. Unlike the 1846-D/D half eagle, the 1848-D/D is not easily visible. On the 1848-D/D, the first mintmark is located below the second. Two distinct die states are known. On the rarer of the two, the first punch can be seen with light magnification (see the illustration on page 199 of my book "Gold Coins of the Dahlonega Mint 1838-1861.") The more common late die state shows just a faint trace of the underlying mintmark and, in my opinion, should not sell for a premium.

The "real" 1848-D/D half eagle is rare in all grades and extremely rare in properly graded About Uncirculated-50. I have never seen an Uncirculated example and the majority of the AU's that I have seen were not attractive.

There are a few other varieties that a serious collector might wish to add to his collection.

In the realm of "strike varieties," some of the more interesting ones include the 1850-D Strong Mintmark, the 1851-D Weak Mintmark and the 1854-D Weak Mintmark half eagles.

Most 1850-D half eagles have a weak to very weak mintmark. It is my opinion that any piece with a strong mintmark deserves to sell for a premium. An advanced set might have a piece with a strong mintmark and an example with a weak mintmark to illustrate the differences.

One variety of 1851-D half eagle (Winter 19-M; see page 208 in my book "Gold Coins of the Dahlonega Mint, 1838-1861.") is sometimes seen with a faint to very faint mintmark. The same holds true for a number of 1854-D half eagles. I have actually seen a few 1854-D half eagle that had such a weak mintmark that even under strong magnification it was very difficult to see the "D."

The 1854-D three dollar gold piece is nearly always seen with pronounced weakness on the borders. A few are known that show virtually complete denticles and these are very rare. It is possible that at some point in the future, an 1854-D three dollar gold piece with strong borders will sell for a premium over a more typically struck example.

Nearly every known 1840-D quarter eagle was struck from heavily cracked dies. A few very early die state pieces are known without cracks. It is conceivable that such pieces will sell for a premium in the future.

At the present time (September 2001), very few of these varieties sell for a premium. The advanced collector of Dahlonega gold should view this as an excellent "window of opportunity" that should be slamming shut in the near future, especially given the fact that PCGS now recognizes and is publicizing these varieties.