Ten Things I'm Looking Forward to Doing/Seeing at the Philly ANA

The annual Summer ANA show is a highlight on any collector's or dealer's calendar. This is my 30th in a row to attend and I am very much looking forward to the show, especially as it appears to be the last ANA that will be held on the east coast for many years. Here's a list of at least ten things that I'm excited about doing and seeing next week in Philadelphia: 1. Having a Mystery Guest Sighting: Without fail, every year at ANA always brings out at least one "mystery guest." Typically, it's a dealer who left the market and have been unseen for years or it's a collector who I haven't seen since the late 1980's who has decided to wander in because he heard that the ANA show was close to his house. I wonder who it will be this year?

2. Attending the Battle Born Sale. I'm very interested in this sale for a number of reasons. I sold many of the coins to the owner and am curious to see how they do at auction. I am excited to go "head to head" with the sharpest rare date gold buyers in the business as we compete to buy coins for clients and for stock. In the not so distant past, it wasn't uncommon to have big specialized sales like this that all the big players attended in person. I'm hoping that during this sale I'm able to see who I am bidding against, and it will go a long way to answering my questions about the State of the Market for Carson City coinage.

3. Having Something Great Walk Up to My Table: Every dealer hopes this will happen at an ANA show: a well-dressed man walks up to the table with a run of 19th century proof sets that he wants to sell for his elderly parents or a little old lady walks up with an original roll of Saints. These things DO happen from time to time and the fact that we are in Philadelphia, the cradle of American numismatics, bodes well for something exciting walking into the show. So if you are reading this blog, great-grandson of James Longacre, please come to tables 805-807 first and ask for me by name!

4. Wearing Nice Clothes in the 95 Degree/100 % Humidity Philly Summer As excited as I am to spend a week in Philadelphia, I'm going to miss the nearly perfect summer we've had so far in the Northwest. It's been under 80 degrees nearly every day here and I haven't had the air conditioner on once. While I'd like to attend the ANA show in my typical Portland Summer Uniform of polo shirt, shorts and sneakers, I feel this wouldn't be appropriate and will, instead, be suited-up every day. Sigh...

5. Viewing the ANA Exhibits. One of my favorite things to do at the show every year is to take thirty minutes off and go view the competitive and non-competitive exhibits. I still am eager to learn about areas of numismatics I know little about, and to see great U.S. coins that I haven't viewed before. It is always fun for me to do this and I always learn which dealers are true coin weenies when I get a text(s) during the show telling me "you have to see (such and such) coin at the Smithsonian or ANS exhibit."

6. Going to The Barnes Museum. Is it wrong for me to admit that I'm actually more excited to see this art museum than I am to attend the coin show? If you have a teeny iota of interest in great 19th and 20th century art, you need to go.

7. Eating Breakfast and Lunch Every Day at Reading Market. Two words: Amish Breakfast. And I can already taste the Italian sammies I'll be chowing down on every day. Sure beats typical coin show food! (Let's not even begin to talk about Philly cheese steaks, South Philly noodles and gravy, the Belgian mussels and frites place I went to the last time I was in Philly, cheap and good Chinese food, etc. etc.)

8. Restocking My Depleted Inventory. Back in the day, I would save coins for the ANA show because June and July were typically dead months. Now, with the internet 24/7/365 having taken over all retail businesses, I typically go to ANA with very few fresh coins due to the fact that there is essentially no summer break for the coin market any more. I had an atypically busy July and am now in dire need to buy coins. As are, I would assume, most other dealers. That fact, combined with strong metals prices and a great east coast location, lead me to think that this year's show will be a very good to excellent one.

9. Experiencing the ANA Buzz. To use a sports metaphor, the ANA is the Super Bowl of coin shows. It's a whole lot more exciting for a dealer to be at the ANA for a week than its is to spend three days trapped in the purgatory of a slow regional show where you've realized within thirty minutes that there is nothing to buy but your airline wants $1,000+ to change to an earlier flight. (Note to self: continue to pay the change fees and chalk it up to mental health benefits...). Even though I've been doing this show for 30 years and it has becoming a bit of grind, it is still exciting for me every day to walk in, see the hundreds and hundreds of tables and wondering what will happen, good or bad, on this particular day.

10. Leaving the Show. As I hinted above, the ANA is a lot of work, especially when you are doing the majority of the buying/selling/bidding/schmoozing/running around/answering calls/scheduling...let's just say I stay busy pretty much every minute of the day from 8am until 10pm (or later on some of the big auction nights). I like the action and I love the up-side, but it is very tiring and I have to tell you that when my plane lands in Portland, I might be doing the Pope-kissing-the tarmac routine. Except for the fact that the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday after the show are all 12+ hour days...

See you in Philadelphia!

ANA (Mis) Adventures: 1982

As I get ready to head to Philadelphia for this year's ANA, I'm in a reflective mood. This is my 30th consecutive year of attending this show and my thoughts go back to my first ANA as a professional: Boston 1982. Let me set the scene for you. Although I had attended two ANA shows before (the hometown New York edition of 1976 and the New Orleans version in 1981), the 1982 ANA was my first show as a full-time professional numismatist. Bright-eyed and eager, I had recently moved to Dallas, TX to start work for Steve Ivy Rare Coins. My first task in Dallas was to help write the catalogs for the ANA auction; Steve Ivy Rare Coin Auctions had been awarded the official sale and put together a sale that, while not well-remembered today, was replete with amazing quality coins and numerous rarities.

What a lot of people forget about the coin market in 1982 is that it was dismal. After the amazing precious metals price run-ups in 1979 and 1980, the market crashed in 1981 and by 1982, you literally couldn't give coins away. More on that in a second...

Steve Ivy Rare Coins (which was to soon merge with Jim Halperin to form Heritage Rare Coins) was a great example of just how badly the coin market had been devastated. In 1979-1980, I believe that there were close to 200 people working at the firm. After the market tanked in 1981, most of the staff was let go. When I was hired, I think there were something like a dozen people on the staff. Amazing as it seems today, this small group of employees was tasked with the responsibility of putting together an ANA sale, selling the coins and collecting the money; not to mention the normal buying and selling associated with the show.

I vaguely remembered thinking that Steve would be relying very heavily on me at the show. I was certainly going to help with the auction and I assumed that he'd have me run around and buy coins for him.

Just before the convention began, I met with Steve and he gave me an idea of what my main goal for the show was. To say that my balloon was quickly deflated is an understatement. But let me set this Ego Affront up better so the punch line will make more sense...

As I mentioned above, the coin market in 1982 was appallingly bad. There were tons and tons of great coins around and, compared to the heady days of 1979 and 1980, prices were cheap; sometimes as low as thirty or forty cents on the dollar. The problem was that no one had any money or any confidence in the market.

But, there was, it turned out, one person who was buying coins. His name was Hugh Sconyers.

Hugh wasn't a real numismatist; he was involved in the investment world and he was known as being one of the smartest people to ever walk a bourse floor. He represented a group of investors who thought coins, in 1982, were cheap and he set out to buy millions of dollars of choice and rare United States pieces. His buying would peak at the Eliasberg sale in October 1982 where he spent millions of dollars on amazing coins.

I never really knew Hugh that well; just mostly by sight and by reputation. I was told his checks were good (no simple feat in 1982...), he was at the show solely to buy coins and this made him The Most Wanted Man at Boston ANA. There was a bit of a problem though. Hugh was a "personality buyer." What I mean by this is that Hugh bought coins mostly from people he knew and trusted. This meant that a number of dealers who would have given their first born child to have an hour with Hugh at the table buying their coins would never have the opportunity.

As soon as Steve Ivy found out about Hurricane Hugh, he called me over and gave me a new job at the show. The conversation, which lasted about thirty seconds, went like this:

Steve: I want you to stop whatever you are doing and follow Hugh Sconyers around the show and take notes about what he's buying. I want to know who he buys from, what he's buying, and how much he's paying. What are you waiting for? Go!

Me: Uh, OK.

So my first day at my first ANA show as a professional coin dealer went like this: I had a note pad and a pen and I followed Hugh from a distance. Let's say he stopped at Joe Flynn's table. I figured my job was to get just close enough that I could spy on Hugh and give a detailed report to Steve. So as Hugh was flipping through Flynn's double row boxes, I was at the next table pretending to look at coins out in the nearby case(s). Or something like that...

I think I did this for about thirty minutes until Hugh turned around and stared at me while he was at another dealer's table. He had to be thinking at this point: "who is this kid following me and what does he want?"

I don't remember how much longer I bird-dogged Sconyers or how my report to Steve Ivy went later that day. I do remember that something else came up within an hour or two that was even more potentially life-changing for the company and I was sent on my way to put out the fire.

Did Hugh ever come over to buy coins from Steve Ivy at the 1982 Boston ANA? I don't know the answer to that but I'd like to think he did. And I've got to think he was happy that the strange kid in the ill-fitting suit who was following him earlier in the show had disappeared.

David Akers: An Appreciation

My interest in United States gold coins began early and, as a result, Dave Akers was one of my first numismatic heroes. I somehow managed to scam my way onto the Paramount mailing list back in the early-to-mid 1970's and I can remember being enthralled with Akers' style of cataloging. He clearly knew his coins inside and out and the information that he was willing to share was inspiring for an aspiring gold coin specialist like myself. In later years, as I began to catalog and write myself, I freely "borrowed" from Dave. The first time I saw Dave in action was at the Stack's 1976 ANA sale. I had a few thousand dollars to spend and this was my first big-time auction to attend in person. I remember Dave buying some of the high end, esoteric 18th and 19th century gold pieces and thinking, "Someday, I want to be a big shot dealer who walks into an ANA auction, buys the four or five ultra-cool coins he really wants, and then gets up and leaves."

I opened my own coin business in 1985 after working for another firm for my first three years in the business. Around a month before the beginning of Auction '85 (the four-firm sale he did every year with RARCOA, Stack's and Superior) I called all four firms trying to get credit established so I could bid in the sale. Two of the firms never bothered to call me back and one offered me something like $5,000 credit if I left a kidney on deposit. But Dave called me back personally, talked to me for about ten minutes (telling me about some of the more interesting lots in the sale) and gave me a credit line at the sale that was around triple what I had hoped for.

Then, in 1986, I started working on my first coin book: The Gold Coins of the Charlotte Mint, 1838-1861. I asked Dave if he would look at the manuscript, which he did, and he gave me a tremendous amount of input. This made the book better and it inspired me to write other books. As always, I "borrowed" freely from Dave, especially in the format that I adapted.

Dave's books on United States gold coins were a tremendous inspiration to me and they actually served as a template for the way I built my company. Dave understood "branding" before this term even existed in the sense that we know it today and his books helped him create one of the best rare coin businesses ever established. To many collectors and dealers, Dave Akers WAS rare date U.S. gold.

As I became more successful, I got to know Dave better. We never really did that much business but he would come to make table at nearly every show and either hand me an incredibly cool coin or pull a piece or two from my case and proceed to tell me its pedigree and give me some insight into the significance of the issue.

Dave Akers knew more about United States gold coins than anyone I have ever met. I would have loved for him to have written more books or to have recorded what he knew onto video or audio. Dave was one of the last of the great scholar-dealers from the 1960's and 1970's, and with his passing we lose a lot of very valuable information about coins and the history of the market.

Dave's greatest success in the coin business and what he is likely to be remembered for was the cataloging and sale of the Pittman collection in the 1990's. This was a staggering amount of work and the catalogs that he produced rank as some of the greatest work in the history of numismatics; if not in any collectibles field. I was able to actively participate in both of the Pittman sales of U.S. coins and these are some of the most memorable moments for me in my entire numismatic career.

During the last few years, I became friendlier with Dave through our mutual friendship with Steve Duckor. I think Dave gave Steve--and all the collectors he worked with--the sort of training that no amount of time or money could replicate today. He shared his knowledge and his passion and helped Steve--and other collectors--build some of the finest sets of U.S. coins ever assembled.

I will miss Dave. I will miss seeing his displays of outrageous coins, I will miss his stories of the "old days" in the coin business and I will miss the kindness he had shown me for close to three decades. Dave, you were one of the all-time greats.

Factors That Influence Coin Prices: The Not-So-Obvious

Coin prices are impacted by a number of factors. The most obvious of these are supply and demand. Simply put, if a coin has a greater degree of demand than available supply, the price is going to be strong. But what are some of the not-as-obvious factors that impact coin prices? Here are some observations. 1. Quality of Demand. There are different levels of demand for any rare coin. There's "I'm sort of kicking tires and I'm wondering if you might have the following D Mint quarter eagle," and there's "I've been looking for a nice 1840-D quarter eagle for five years, its the last coin I need to finish my set and I have to have it!" The latter is, obviously, a higher quality of demand and this buyer would be willing to pay a significantly higher price than the lukewarm, casual buyer.

While this example is deliberately extreme in its contrast, there are clearly different levels of demand that impact coin prices. Another factor is venue.

I am very interested in marketing and branding and one of the things that interests me is creating demand for new products. Brands now do "mash ups" where a hot young designer of furniture, as an example, designs a limited edition sneaker design for Adidas or Nike. Only 500 might be released and collectors will pay a significant premium for this because of its perceived scarcity. And, it might be offered only at a "pop up" venue where you have to wait for an hour to just see the sneakers and where's there is no time to sit and ponder if you will or won't make the purchase. You are pre-sold and you represent a high quality of demand.

I see this sort of collector behavior for coins at auction. The major firms do a great job of creating an environment that fosters competition and turns a coin purchase into blood sport. As an example, how many times have you, as a bidder, placed an on-line bid and received an outbid notice only to say "I know I shouldn't this but I'll be damned if I'm going to let myself get outbid on this D Mint quarter eagle?" At a live auction, it is even easier to lose control when bidding (which is why I suggest hiring an agent, but that's another story...) and I can recall numerous incidents when bidding has turned into a ego-fest between collectors or dealers.

2. Promotions. A decade ago, when large-scale telemarketers seemingly controlled the coin market, having information about the next coin or series that was going to be promoted could make or break a wholesale dealer. As an example, I can remember at least a few times that Commemorative Gold coins were about to be pushed, and quietly buying coins at pre-promotional levels so that I could sell into a potential rising market.

This isn't the case so much in the 2012 coin market due to the Democratization of Information as a result of widespread web access. But rare coins are still being promoted and this can be a subtle factor in price increases.

In December 2010 I wrote a blog entitled "Which Civil War Gold Coins Will Be Promoted in 2011," which represented my unbiased opinion(s) that the upcoming 150th anniversary of the beginning of the Civil War was a good opportunity for someone to promote Civil War gold coins. It seems that at least a few people read this blog, as I know of two marketers who, perhaps as a result of my suggestion, began promoting the exact coins I suggested in the article. Plus, said article inspired me to become a more active buyer of high end Civil War gold coinage and to write a major four part series in 2012 about collecting these coins:

Part I Part II Part III Part IV

3. Registry Set Collecting: In many series of coins, the passion of Registry Set collectors results in amazing prices for the right coin(s). This hasn't impacted 18th and 19th century gold coins all that much as there is little Registry Set collecting for early gold and Liberty Head issues (although I wouldn't be surprised if we begin to see serious registry collecting in popular areas like CC double eagles or Dahlonega half eagles in the very near future).

The areas in the better gold coin market that seem most likely to be impacted by Registry Set collecting in the immediate future are 20th century issues. I find it very surprising that dealers or marketers who specialize in series like $2.50 Indians haven't seriously promoted the Registry as a way to impact the demand on rarer dates in high grades. For a while, there were a small but dedicated number of Registry Sets in the St. Gaudens double eagle series that were highly competitive and which greatly influenced the prices of high grade better date PCGS encapsulated Saints. My guess is that this will happen again in the not-so-distant future.

4. Pushing Hot Buttons. Most collectors of high(er) dollar coins are Baby Boomers. And I believe that a major part of the strong, strong market in key date American coins in the past decade has been the ability of these coins to push the hot buttons of buyers. Let me explain:

Just the other day, I got back a coin from PCGS that hit my nostalgia button as hard as any has in some time. It was a perfect, even-brown VF30 1877 Cent. When I was a wee lad, I collected Indian Cents and the 1877 was a mythical rarity that I could only dream of owning. Today, this is a coin that I can easily afford and the $1,500-1,750 that this coin would cost me, as a collector, would exorcize some of the oh-why-can't -I-fill-that-1877-hole frisson that haunted me when I was eight or nine.

There are, of course, other hittable hot buttons for gold collectors as well. Cool design? That's an affirmative, High Relief double eagle. Great background story? Hello, Carson City double eagle! The "neatness" factor of owning an 18th century issue? That would be you, 1799 eagle.

5. Historical Significance. As numismatics becomes less about investors and more about collectors, I am finding the historic significance of certain issues are becoming more available because of their historic significance. This includes a number of factors, a few of which include the following:

-Background Story: I don't think its a coincidence that coins like 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles or 1861-O double eagles have become much more in demand due to their fantastic background stories. -Provenance: This may not be the case for all collectors but for some of us (and you know who you are...) the allure of an Eliasberg or Norweb pedigree is a definite factor that influences the price that we pay for a neat coin. -"The Look:" As the internet has (re)proven, numismatics is very visual. Coins that have a great appearance (such as wonderful deep coloration or lots of dirt clinging to the recessed areas) are pieces that a certain type of collector will pay a premium for.

There are other not-so-obvious factors that influence what collectors will pay for a coin. What are some of the ones that went undiscussed in this blog that impact you?

Pricing "Difficult" Coins: A Real World Model

I have written a number of blogs in the past few years about how I price rare coins. Despite this, I still get many questions from new and experienced collectors about pricing. I'd like to share a specific coin that I recently handled and explain how I came up with buy/sell prices. As I have written, I find many of the published price guides to be of little or no use when it comes to complex, infrequently traded coins. When I make decisions at shows, in my office, or in the auction room on what to pay for a coin, I tend to put a lot more credence in auction records. So, if you'd like to play at home, I suggest that you follow along with the PCGS auction archives on pcgs.com as this is a major source of information for me when I make pricing decisions. Here is a "real world" model and the thought process(es) that went along with my pricing decision.

1863 Half Eagle, Graded MS60 by NGC and CAC approved

This is a coin I handled earlier this year and it is one of the first pieces in a while that, as soon as I saw it, I said "I have to own this." Before I discuss my thoughts about how to price it, let me discuss a little about the issue and about the coin itself.

Only 2,442 business strikes of this year were made and my experience is that the 1863 half eagle is rare in all grades, especially in AU50 or better. I jogged my memory and couldn't recall having seen an example I thought was better than AU53 to AU55 in more than a decade. And, I remembered that this was an issue that typically comes with zero in the way of eye appeal. A quick look online showed me that the PCGS population was none for Uncirculated coins and five for AU58; NGC had graded two in Uncirculated (an MS60 and an MS61) and five in AU58. At the time, CAC hadn't approved a single 1863 in any grade; a good indication that the eye appeal of the typical example was not good.

(How can you, even without my experience, make the same conclusions? Look at the pictures of the 1863 half eagles sold at auction during the last ten years. Are the coin fresh and original or are they bright, abraded and processed? Then, look at the number of auction records. A quick scan of the PCGS archives showed a total of 30 records since 1941. What was immediately impressive to me about this figure was that the highly-regarded 1864-S half eagle had 32 auction records in that time period!)

Of course, all these statistics are just gobbledygook if the coin itself isn't "all there." As you can see from the photo above, this coin had really good eye appeal. In fact, my first question was "why is this only in a 60 holder?" (I recently overheard heard a wholesale dealer, who I regard as one of the top three graders in the world, refer to the MS60 grade as "dumb" and that he "hated it." I tend to agree with him but, in this case, I was smitten with the coin; even it was in the funkiest of all Mint State grades.)

So, at this point I was sold. What would I pay?

With no auction records for an Uncirculated coin, I looked at AU58's. The two most recent sales were $14,950 by Stacks Bowers in August 2012 and $14,375 by Heritage in May 2010. A quick look at images for both coins showed two pieces that were no better, in my opinion, than AU53 to AU55. So, after digesting this, I decided that I would pay at least $17,500-20,000 for a coin that was a real, CAC-quality AU58 (the last "real 58" I had seen was the Bass II coin which sold for $13,800 back in 1999...).

Having concluded that a "real" AU58 was worth as much as $20,000, I figured it would be OK to pay at least $30,000 for a really nice MS60. I wanted confirmation and then decided to see if there were comparable coins that had recent auction records in this grade. Back to the archives I went.

I didn't really find any good comparables for the 1864-P and 1865-P, two dates that I regard as somewhat similar to the 1863; at least in terms of overall desirability. I then looked at the 1863-S; an issue with 17,000 struck but a low survival rate. I believe that this date is about twice as available as its Philadelphia counterpart but, like the 1863-S, it is extremely rare in AU58 and above.

In their June 2011 auction, Stacks Bowers sold a nice NGC AU58+ 1863-S for a remarkable $25,875. This was the single best example of the date that I had seen in years and I thought the price realized would be strong but I was clearly not expecting a winning bid of over $25,000. But this was as good a comparable as I could find and it made me think that if a "gem slider" 1863-S half eagle was worth nearly $26,000 then a somewhat nicer example of a decidedly rarer date (the 1863-P) had to be worth at least $30,000-32,500.

After negotiations, I was able to purchase the 1863 half eagle in this price range. I sent it to CAC where it was approved, thus becoming the first and only stickered example of this date. I listed it for sale in the mid-30's and within a few hours I sold it to a specialist who had been looking for a high grade 1863 half eagle for many years.

And what exactly does this all prove? Here are a few thoughts that I gleamed:

1. With CDN Monthly Summary showing a "bid" of $20,000 for this date in MS60, I knew that I wasn't going to get any help from published price sheets. But that's not a surprise, given that no MS60 coin had ever traded.

2. A few things convinced me to stretch on this coin: its true rarity in all grades, its Civil War date of issue and its great eye appeal. But if I had been offered an 1863-P half eagle in MS60 that was ugly and processed, I might not have figured it for much more than the $20,000 or so that I decided a properly graded, attractive AU58 was worth; maybe even less, in fact.

3. When you are contemplating a purchase of a coin such as this 1863 half eagle, you have to be prepared to stretch. My quick analysis made me think it was a great deal at $25,000 and probably too much of a stretch at $40,000. So, at $30,000 I was still all in and at $35,000 I probably would have been as well but not without some complaining to the seller.

4. How effective is the comparable method I mentioned above for determining value? It can be very effective but it is fraught with potential landmines. Let's say there was just one comparable and it was from over a decade ago--would that be effective? Or what if there were three records and one was 100% higher for a comparable coin) than the other two--would you, as an informed buyer, know the circumstances behind this sale? Is it effective to compare a coin like an 1863 half eagle to, say, an 1863 eagle? Or is this too much of an "apples to oranges" scenario.

5. The bottom line is that no matter how pseudo-scientific we as dealers or collectors try to make pricing, a lot of the numbers that get placed on really rare coins are instinctual. If you are knowledgeable, you'll have a gut feeling that the price is "right" or its "wrong."

Would you like to read more about my thoughts on coin pricing? If so, feel free to email me at dwn@ont.com and fire away with some off your questions.

10 Ways to Become a Better Collector

As a dealer who works with collectors who range in experience from total beginners to full-on experts, I have a fairly good idea what separates the masters from the wanna-bes. Experience, obviously, is part of the equation; but some of the best collectors I have ever seen are fairly new to the game and their skill is largely intuitive. Here are some suggestions and observations I'd like to share with you that might just make you a better collector. 1. Don't Spread Yourself Too Thin: I've seen this happen many times before: a newbie gets bitten hard by the coin bug and becomes a collector of everything. You can't fault a bright eyed and bushy tailed collector for being overly enthusiastic, but this is certain to be a pocketbook drain, and it is likely to result in a confused mess of a collection. It's likely that your first choice (or choices) of what you collect will change over time but try to reign in your "I must have it all" sentiments and replace them with a little more control. If you can't stand the down time between purchases, choose a secondary collection that is inexpensive (paper money, tokens, circulated Liberty Seated silver) to fulfill your compulsion to make a purchase.

2. Become A Student Of Your Series: The collectors who impress me the most are the ones who have become specialized in a certain series and who have studied it to the point that they are as knowledgeable about it as possible. This study can take many forms. Some collectors are interested in the history of the coins they collect, while others are more interested in rarity and availability of coins. A collector might select a series to specialize in where there is little written and become the author of a book or a web-based guide. My take on studying a series is that for every hour you put into this, your reward is many times the effort.

3. Establish A Good Relationship With At Least One Or Two Dealers: I don't think I've ever seen a really great collection that wasn't the result of a joint effort between a collector and a dealer. If you collect something like Dahlonega half eagles in crusty About Uncirculated grades, or varieties of Type One Liberty Head double eagles, you just aren't going to have access to enough good coins unless you have a solid relationship with a dealer. Sure, you can find most of the coins that you need on E-Bay, or bidding sight-unseen at a Heritage sale, but my guess is that when you are done you are going to have a set of coins with more problems in it as good pieces. If you collect something like modern coins you don't really need a dealer; this is as close to be a self-service area as there is in numismatics. But if you are a new collector who thinks he can build a complex set without some help...

4. If You Are An Investor, Think Like A Collector: One of the oldest Doug Winter cliches: numismatic investors almost never make money but good collector often makes money in spite of themselves. Think about this for a second: coin investors inevitably buy the wrong coins at the wrong time from the wrong people. Typically, they buy high and sell low. Collectors, on the other hand, buy coins because they love them, hold them for a long period and often see a fairly good return on their "investment" even though they weren't buying to make money. If you are someone buying coins who has no interest in them...stop immediately. Sell what you have and switch to bullion. You'll save yourself a headache or three when its time to liquidate.

5. Buy With Eye Appeal In Mind: Unless you are a specialist who has to buy a certain coin because it is so rare that he can't pass on it, never buy coins that aren't good looking. There are relatively few exceptions to this rule. I would still buy an ugly 1864-S half eagle as this is an in-demand issue that seldom is found at all, let alone with good eye appeal. But if we're talking an issue like an 1864-S double eagle (a reasonably available coin that can be found with good eye appeal if the collector is patient) it is a huge mistake to jump at a coin that is just so-so. This harkens back to #2 listed above: by learning about the coins you collect, you'll learn which can be found nice and which are almost never seen with good eye appeal. Here's a word to the wise: ugly coins are hard to sell unless they are very rare and even then, prepare to steel yourself to a lot of "that's ugly but..." comments.

6. Pay Up For Quality: Another numismatic cliche: "good coins aren't cheap and cheap coins aren't good." In this day and age, it is certainly possible to get fair value when you buy a coin. But with a real shortage of good to great coins in the market right now, it is very unlikely that you are going to be able to buy good coins at auction with low-ball bids or from cash-strapped dealers who have to sell the best pieces they have to pay the bills. The laws of supply and demand have become pretty simple in the coin market in the last five or so years. For every really nice coin, there tends to be multiple buyers. If you aren't willing to step up to the plate, you will not only miss out on them, you probably won't be offered any. I'm not implying that you grossly overpay for coins. Just consider your opportunity costs and consider if your stretch at the time of purchase will be rewarded when its time to sell.

7. Trust Your Instincts: Nearly every numismatic mistake I've made has been the result of not trusting my first instinct. If you have to force yourself to like a coin, it is probably not the right coin for you. If, after doing your research, you think a coin is well overpriced, don't buy it (you might make an exception for that choice 1864-S half eagle you've been looking for since 1998...). Another instinct to trust has to do with a potential dealer. If the guy offering you coins over the phone makes the little hairs on the back of your neck stand up, don't deal with him.

8. Learn How To Price The Series You Collect: Most new collectors either dramatically under-price or overprice coins they are offered. With the online auction prices realized archives that PCGS, NGC and Heritage offer, there is no excuse for most collectors to not have a decent idea of how to price frequently traded coins. Really rare coins, like our friend the 1864-S half eagle, are a different matter and this topic has been discussed by me in previous blogs; read them to see what my thoughts are on this topic.

9. Be Patient! Let me give you a true-life example that illustrates why patience is a numismatic virtue. I met a collector about a year ago who was wanting to collect early gold. I sold him a coin or two and he was hooked. He sent me coins to sell for him to raise money for another purchase. He was self-admittedly impatient and was used to collecting coins that could be found with relative ease. It took me over six months to find him the "right" coin but when I did, it was a total home run; a coin that exceeded his expectations and made him realize that his patience had been more than rewarded. If you want to collect really rare and/or really nice coins, you have to be patient, especially in this market.

10. Don't Bother Learning To Grade: When I had kidney stones two months ago, I didn't take a crash course in how to become a urologist, I just went to the best available doctor and was treated. And it isn't likely that you are ever going to have the time to really learn how to grade; certainly not to the point that you can tell an MS62 from an MS63. But, you can learn how to determine if a coin has real color, if the surfaces are original, if it is well-struck for the issue, if it is new or not new, etc. I used to think it was a good idea to tell collectors to learn to grade and now I realize that it is naive. You can learn to grade to a point but, mainly, learn how to choose coins that are in the top 5-10% for the grade.

If some of these suggestions hit home a little bit hard, don't fret. This blog wasn't written with any specific people in mind and these are mistakes that I have seen made by beginners and sophisticated collectors alike. If you can follow a few of these from time to time, you are likely to enjoy rare coin collecting more and to become a better long-term numismatist.

20 Popular 19th Century US Gold Coins Priced Below $10,000

There are dozens of United States gold coins that are accorded a high degree of value for various reasons: first-year-of-issue, low mintage figures, beautiful design, strong collector appeal, etc. These are not always the "rarest" coins in a series and when the value-conscious collector looks at the numbers they don't always make sense. But coins like the ones listed below are great additions to any collection. Let's look at a list of 20 gold coins from the 19th century priced below $10,000 that would be welcome in any collection. 1. 1849-D Gold Dollar: The first gold dollar from this mint and an affordable, well-made issue. An easy coin to obtain in the $2,500-5,000 range.

2. 1855-O Gold Dollar: The only Type Two gold dollar from New Orleans and the final issue of this denomination from this mint. $3,000-5,000 will buy you a nice piece.

3. 1875 Gold Dollar: Just 400 business strikes were made, yet this issue is affordable.

4. 1838-C Quarter Eagle: The first quarter eagle from Charlotte and a popular two year type. Becoming harder to locate for less than $7,500 but be patient and you'll find one.

5. 1839-D Quarter Eagle: The mate to the 1838-C and an issue that is both first-year-of-type and a one -year emission. Another coin that is becoming hard to find at under $10,000 but not impossible.

6. 1845-O Quarter Eagle: Only 4,000 were struck and this is by far the scarcest quarter eagle from this mint. Still available for less than $10,000 but getting more expensive every year.

7. 1875 Quarter Eagle: If you own the dollar, why not the quarter eagle? Another super-low mintage issue; just 400 struck. Decent pieces can be had for $7,500-10,000.

8. 1854-O Three Dollars: A first-year issue and a one-year type in one affordable package. $5,000-7,500 will buy you a very pleasing example.

9. 1881 Three Dollars: Just 500 business strikes were made and this is a scarce coin in all grades. This date always sells quickly for me. $7,500 will buy you a nice one.

10. 1813 Half Eagle: One of the more common coins on this list but its the most affordable example of the legendary Fat Head type. Nice pieces can still be hard for less than $10,000.

11. 1838-C/1838-D Half Eagles: Both are first year issues and one-year types. Both are very popular and becoming increasingly hard to find at under $10,000. These have great appeal beyond branch mint specialists.

12. 1839-C/1839-D Half Eagles: Two more one-year types. Neither are really rare (except in high grades) but they are well-made, oh-so-popular and can still be purchased in the $5,000-10,000 range. A four coin set that had the 1838-C, 1838-D, 1839-C and 1839-D half eagles would be a great addition to a collection.

13. 1861-C Half Eagle: Final year of issue, possible Civil War issuance and cheap...what's not to love about the 1861-C half eagle? I just sold a nice EF40 for a shade over $5,000 and received multiple orders for it on my site.

14. 1870-CC Half Eagle: You can't buy a really nice example of this date for less than $10,000 anymore but if you stretch a bit you'll own a true piece of history. By a large margin, this is the most affordable first-year CC gold coin.

15. 1838 Eagle: This is another formerly affordable coin whose levels have shot up in the last five years. It's scarce in all grades (only 7,200 were made) and it is the first Liberty Head eagle.

16. 1854-S Eagle: The first San Francisco eagle and a true Gold Rush artifact. Very affordable with very nice pieces still available for around $5,000.

17. 1857-S SSCA Double Eagle: I thought twice about adding this to the list but how can you not love a coin with this much history and cosmetic appeal? MS63's at $9,000 or so seem like fair value right now.

18. 1874-CC Eagle: To me, the thought of owning a Carson City eagle from the early 1870's is pretty exciting and the 1874-CC is the most common. Nice coins can be had for $6,000-8,000.

19. 1861 Double Eagle: An affordable Civil War double eagle that is well made and available. A great starter coin for the collector and always an easy coin to sell. You can buy nice examples for $3,000-5,000 and up.

20. Carson City Double Eagle: I didn't mention a specific date as I am viewing this as a type purchase. What could be more popular than a big, pretty coin like this? You can still purchase an excellent example for $4,000-7,000.

So what coins did I leave off the list that you have in your collection and which do you agree with? Email me at dwn@ont.com and let me know!

The DWN Favorites List

As I update my website the morning of Long Beach set-up, it got me to to thinking what are some of my numismatic favorites: shows, series, books, sales, etc.? Indulge me as I attempt to entertain you... Favorite City for a Coin Show: New York, by a significant factor. Yes, rooms are expensive and, yes, space is at a premium at any exhibit hall where a show is held. But the last two ANA shows held in New York were by far the two best coin shows I ever had. Not only is New York the financial capital of the world (for now...), it is the epicenter of American coin collecting with thousands of serious, deep-pocketed buyers within a few hundred miles. If it were up to me, I'd have a major coin show in Manhattan at least once year.

Favorite Coin Series: My favorite series seems to change on an annual basis. Obviously, I'm a dealer who favors gold and, equally as obvious, I tend to favor early gold and Liberty Head issues. Right now, I find myself especially intrigued by No Motto half eagles. But I am also very intrigued by Type One double eagles, early quarter eagles, New Orleans eagles and so much more. That's what makes my job fun.

Favorite Coin Book: I would vote for S.S. Crosby's Early Coins of America as the best book on coins ever written and the Garrett/Guth 100 Greatest U.S. Coins as the book that has had the biggest influence on the market in the last decade. But for me, the single best coin book has always been the Redbook. It has everything I need in one neat, simple package and it is the book I refer to more than any other; even my own.

Favorite Coin Website: Based on the amount of time I spend online, I'd have to vote for the PCGS and Heritage sites; the former for its auction prices realized and the latter for its elegant design and unrivaled technology.

Favorite Coin Show: For me, this is a pretty easy one: the FUN show in Orlando, held every year in January. From an economic standpoint, I think the tables are a good value. From a symbolic standpoint, I like the fact that it represents the beginning of the year and seems to offer a Karmic Cleansing (or something like that...). The show is well-run, it's nice to go to Florida in the middle of winter, it's well-attended, and it's a show that has to be considered one of the very best of the year for retail sales. I find the atmosphere more laid-back than the Summer ANA (which is my runner-up for best show) and its a show that, after all these years, I still look forward to attending.

Favorite Coin Auction: That would still have to be the Bass II sale, conducted by Bowers and Merena in October 1999. There were thousands of lots with nearly every single one containing a coin (or coins) that I wanted to bid on. And the coins were fresh, fresh, fresh with an incredible array of depth and quality. What's really remarkable about this sale is that although it was conducted just 13 years ago, in some ways it seems like a hundred; what with no internet, sparse attendance and prices that now seem cheap, cheap, cheap. It is scary to think what this sale would bring in 2012.

Favorite Auction Firm: Given the fact that the coin auction business is essentially a duopoly at this point, it's a lot easier to point to a favorite firm today. Due to their transparency and great customer service, the clear favorite for me is Heritage. I love how Heritage provides me with all the information I need to help me bid and I love how, despite their size, Heritage is willing to go the extra mile when it comes to things like having someone stay late after a long day at a coin show to let me view lots.

Asterisk: Had ANR been able to survive the contraction of the auction business, this firm would probably have been my favorite. They had great people working for them, got nice consignments, produced exceptional catalogs, and were building a first-class website. Their demise was sad for the numismatic auction business.

Favorite Regular Issue Coin Design: This would be a toss-up between the so-ugly-its-charming Capped Head half eagle design of William Kneass (especially the Reduced Diameter issues of 1829-1834) and the cool, elegant Indian Head eagle design produced by Augustus St. Gaudens.

Favorite Pattern Issue Coin Design: Judd-1776. If you don't know what this design looks like, Google it.

Favorite Coins I've Handled In 2012: While not yet half over, this has proven to be a watershed year for DWN in terms of cool individual coins. A few stand-out so far: the finest known MS63 1855-D quarter eagle I bought in the Goldberg's February sale, the NGC MS60 1863 half eagle I recently sold to an eastern specialist, the PCGS F12 1854-S quarter eagle I bought at the "secret" auction in San Francisco, and the group of three Gem Charlotte gold coins I just finished selling over the weekend. I can only hope the second half of 2012 turns out to be as full of great coins as the first half was!

What are some of your numismatic favorites? Let me know by contacting me via email at dwn@ont.com.

Good Values in Type Three Liberty Head Double Eagles

If you collect rare United States gold coins, you'll notice that certain series have extremely compressed values. As an example, a common date Dahlonega half eagle grades EF45 might trade in the $2,300-2,600 range while the same date in AU50 often sells for a small premium; maybe as low as 10-15%. The reason for this is pretty simple. The market has decided that there is not much of an aesthetic difference between a Dahlonega half eagle in EF45 and one in AU50 and the formerly high price premium between the two grades is no longer merited. But there are some series where one small point on the grading scale can make a significant financial difference. One of these is Type Three double eagles.

The Type Three double eagle series dates from 1877 through the adoption of the new St. Gaudens designs in 1907. Type Three double eagles range from ultra-common to ultra-rare and they have proven to be quite popular with collectors over the last decade.

The grade distribution for most Type Three double eagles dictates their current rarity. By this, I mean that many dates were extensively melted and the surviving coins tend to have been shipped loose in bags to overseas sources. There are many Type Threes that are virtually unknown in grades below AU55 and virtually unknown in grades above MS63. When available, they tend to be heavily abraded due to poor handling and grade in the MS60 to MS61 range.

The exact point on the grading scale where availability and non-availability in this series tends to intersect is at MS63. There are numerous Type Threes that are fairly scarce in properly graded MS62 but are still affordable and, in my opinion, are very good values. These same coins might double, triple or even quadruple in price at the next grade up and I question the value of these MS63 coins. This is especially true when a nice, high end MS62 is often virtually indistinguishable from a typical quality MS63.

There are a number of "secret" and "not-so-secret" dates in the Type Three series that I think make for interesting analysis. Let's look at a few of these and determine what the best grade is for the collector seeking good value.

1. 1877-S There were three different Liberty Head double eagles issued in 1877 and the 1877-S is the most common of these. It is a numismatically significant date as it is the first San Francisco Type Three double eagle but it is very common in the lowest Uncirculated grades. As I was doing some basic research for this blog, I was very surprised to see the third-party population figures for MS62 examples of this date: 258 graded as such at PCGS and 163 at NGC. Even factoring in extensive resubmissions, this is still well over 100 examples graded MS62 between the two services.

In MS62, the 1877-S is worth around $4,000-5,000. This seems like a fairly high number for a coin that is more available than I would have thought but most 1877-S double eagles in MS62 are very low end. CAC has only approved four (with none higher) and this low number doesn't surprise me. I'd have to say that a choice, minimally abraded MS62 with CAC approval is pretty good value at, say, $4,500-5,000.

In MS63, this date is conditionally rare. PCGS has graded twenty five (with three better) while NGC shows only five with one better. An average quality MS63 is worth around $15,000 while a choice, high end piece could bring close to $20,000 at auction; more if it were CAC approved. Is this issue good value in MS63? I would have to say no, especially if the coin in question looks like the few slabbed MS63's that I've seen in recent years. My advice to the collector would be to patiently wait for a nice MS62 and pay a premium of as much as 10-15% if the coin has above-average luster and surfaces.

2. 1879 This is one of the more interesting years, numismatically, for Type Three double eagles. Four different issues were struck. The 1879-O is the rarest, followed by the 1879-CC. The 1879-P and 1879-S are condition rarities with similar overall profiles.

The 1879 is most often seen in AU55 to MS60 grades and it is very scarce in properly graded MS61. Nice MS62's are rare. PCGS shows a population of forty-five in this grade with twenty-one finer while NGC's figures are 32 with 19 finer. Only two MS62's have received CAC approval. In MS62, this coin has a current value of $4,500-5,000. This seems to me to be a great value in comparison to the above-referenced 1877-S.

In MS63 and higher grades, the 1879 is very rare. The combined PCGS/NGC population is twenty-five in this grade with fifteen finer. Factoring in resubmissions, this means there are perhaps a dozen known in MS63 or above. In the current market, such a coin would sell for $15,000 to $20,000. Do I think an MS63 is worth three to four times more than an MS62? Not really. Would I advise a collector to buy an MS63 example of this date? Doubtful, unless he was putting together a finest known/Condition Census set and he "had" to have a coin that graded at least MS63.

3. 1889. This date differs from the 1877-S and 1879 in that it isn't a total condition rarity. It has a reasonably low original mintage of 44,111 business strikes; a fraction of the number made for the 1877-S and the 1879.

This is an issue that didn't see a lot of circulation and it is seldom encountered in AU grades. But it is fairly easy to locate in MS60 and MS61. MS62 coins have a relatively high population (over 300 at PCGS and NGC combined) but many of the examples that I see in MS62 holders are not really all that special. This is evidenced by the fact that only five coins (as of 5/12) have received approval at CAC. An MS62 example of the 1889 can currently be purchased for $3,000-3,500.

MS63 and higher examples are another story. PCGS has graded 19 in MS63 with none better while NGC shows five in this grade with none better. We can assume the PCGS population is inflated and, in all likelihood, the number of properly graded MS63 coins is around six to eight. The value of this date in MS63 is in the $12,500-15,000 range. Is this is a good value?

In this case, I think that a really nice CAC-quality 1889 $20.00 in MS63 might be a pretty good deal at around $13,500. Here's my thought process. First of all, there are no coins currently graded higher than MS63. Secondly, with a reasonably low mintage figure you probably don't have to worry about extensive hoards being found. Thirdly, it is common in MS62 but few of the coins in this grade seem to be nice enough to upgrade, someday, to MS63. This makes it a reasonably "safe" condition rarity although, as always, there is some risk involved with a coin like this.

As you can see from the examples above, the "best value grade" for all these dates--and for many Type Three double eagles--is MS62. If you can find examples of these dates in high end CAC-quality MS62, at a fraction of the MS63 price, it is hard to argue with these levels of value.