Which Gold Coins Are Popular and Why: Part One

A question that I am often asked by new collectors is "which gold coins are popular?" I think this is a great question and one certainly deserving of a blog. I'm going to not only answer this question for each denomination, I'm going to give a few reasons why I think certain coins/types are or are not popular. I. Gold Dollars

People tend to be in one of two camps when it comes to gold dollars: they either love them or they hate them. This is mainly due to these coins small size. I am clearly in the "love 'em" camp and have, over the years, handled many finest known and Condition Census pieces.

In my experience, the most popular gold dollars are the Dahlonega issues. Produced from 1849 through 1861, they are very collectible and a number of the issues are quite affordable. The most popular is the 1861-D which, at this point in time, is the single most popular gold dollar of any date. This is clearly due to this coins historic significance.

At one time, the Type Two issues were extremely popular with date collectors. But the values of the 1854 and 1855 Philadelphia issues have dropped considerably in recent years. At the same time, the branch mint issues of this design (1855-O, 1855-C, 1855-D and 1856-S) have become exceedingly popular.

Type Three gold dollars tend to be overlooked but offer the collector a number of very good values. The best known--and most popular--issue is the ultra-low mintage 1875.

II. Quarter Eagles

As a denomination, quarter eagles are fairly popular and they are clearly increasing in popularity each year.

The pre-1834 issues are all rare. They are not as popular as the half eagles and eagles of this era but there are a number of people who specialize in them and they are seldom overlooked when offered for sale. The most popular early dates are the 1796 No Stars and the 1808. Both are one-year types that have low original mintage figures.

The dates in the 1790's are always popular due to their historic significance and their overall rarity. I am personally a big fan of the Capped Head Left type produced from 1821 to 1827. There are only five dates, and these are hard to locate in all grades.

The Classic Head quarter eagles have become quite popular in the last few years and I expect that they will continue to grow in stature as more becomes known about them. The branch mint issues are the most popular. None of these is really rare (except in the upper Mint State grades) and collectors appreciate the unique positioning of the mintmark on the obverse. There are a total of ten Classic Head issues.

The Liberty Head quarter eagle series is popular as it is one of the few 19th century gold series that can actually be completed. There are a few rarities: the 1841, 1854-S and 1863 are all six-figure coins and many of the branch mint issues are very rare in Uncirculated.

In my experience, the most popular Liberty Head quarter eagles are the Dahlonega issues. The rarest is the 1856-D. None are common in higher grades but this series can be completed with time and patience and this makes it popular with specialists.

The San Francisco quarter eagles seem to be the least popular issues of this type; discounting, of course, the very rare 1854-S. I attribute this lack of popularity to the fact that there is no published reference work on San Francisco gold. These coins tend to be relatively available in lower grades but nearly all of the issues from the 1850's, 1860's and the early 1870's are very rare in Uncirculated.

The Indian Head quarter eagle series is probably the most familiar type of quarter eagle due to the availability of these coins. Unlike the 18th century issues, the Indian Head coins are readily available in higher grades.

For a number of years, this series was extremely popular due to an excellent promotional effort by one firm. This firm is no longer focusing as much attention on these coins and prices have dropped.

I personally like the design of the Indian Head quarter eagle and I find fresh, high grade examples to be very cosmetically appealing. But, to be honest, the availability of these coins make them a bit boring to me and I have never really found locating any of the dates to be enough of a challenge to get me interested.

III. Three Dollar Gold

The popularity of this odd denomination tends to ebb and flow. A few years, Threes were very popular with collectors. Today, they are not as popular and appear to be an excellent area for the contrarian.

My guess is that most people would agree with me that the 1854-D is, hands-down, the most popular issue in this series. It is the only Three from this mint and it has a small original mintage of 1,120. It is certainly the only date of this type that seems to have broad appeal outside of the realm of specialists.

The 1875 and 1876 are Proof-only issues that are rare and popular. But many three dollar collectors feel it is OK to exclude these from their set and focus exclusively on circulation strikes.

The ultimate three dollar is the 1870-S which is unique and housed in the ANA money museum in Colorado Springs. When and if this coin becomes available for sale, I would expect it to sell for a strong seven-figure price.

Some of the demand that was created for this denomination a few years ago was artificial as it was generated by telemarketers. I would expect that if a really nice specialized collection of three were to become available, new collectors would come back to this series and you'd see a more "pure" level of demand.

IV. Half Eagles

This denomination has incredible variety and breadth. Some collectors find it overwhelming while others appreciate the challenges afforded by the half eagle.

The early dates (pre-1834) are generally divided into two categories: the semi-affordable and the not-very-affordable. The Small Eagle coins from 1795 to 1798 include few of both. The most popular issue is the 1795 Small Eagle due to its status as the very first half eagle produced. It is can be found without a great effort.

The Heraldic Eagle type of 1795-1807 includes a number of great rarities but many of the issues (especially those struck after 1799) are available and surprisingly affordable. The Capped Bust Left type of 1807-1812 is very collectible and there are no "stopper" issues.

Almost nothing but "stoppers" can be found in the 1813-1829 Capped Head Left issues. The best known issue is the 1822 of which just three are known. Many of the other issues (like the 1815, 1819, 1821, 1825/4 and 1829 Large Date) are extremely rare and almost never offered for sale.

The reduced size Capped Head Left issues of 1829-1834 are also extremely rare, despite relatively high original mintage figures.

For many collectors, the earliest half eagles that they focus on are the Classic Heads of 1834-1838. I really like this series as it is short-lived, nicely designed and a nice bridge between the expensive "old gold" issues and the more ubiquitous Liberty Head coins. The two branch mint Classic Head half eagles (1838-C and 1838-D) are extremely popular but affordable and available in circulated grades.

Liberty Head half eagles are found with two types: the No Motto issues from 1839 through 1866 and the With Motto issues from 1866 to 1907.

No Motto half eagles range from not very popular to very popular. As one might expect, the most popular issues are those from the southern branch mints. The order of popularity seems to be Dahlonega solidly in the lead followed by New Orleans and lagged by Charlotte.

Branch mint No Motto half eagles tend to be seen usually in the Very Fine to Extremely Fine grades. Even the common dates tend to be hard to locate in properly graded About Uncirculated and all are scarce to rare in Uncirculated. I personally believe that there is some excellent value to be had with both the branch mint and Philadelphia No Motto issues, especially in higher grades.

The With Motto half eagles are less popular with collectors with one big exception: the Carson City issues that were produced from 1870 through 1893. The 1870-CC is far and away the most popular Carson City half eagle due to its status as the first year of issue from this mint.

There are a few very rare issues in the No Motto series including the 1875 and the 1887 but these tend to be somewhat overlooked due to the extreme availability of many of the post 1880 Philadelphia and San Francisco dates.

The final half eagle design is the attractive Indian Head made from 1908 to 1929. Despite this coin's beauty, it is probably the least popular of the four "modern" 20th century gold series. I'd say part of this lack of popularity has to do with the rarity of many Indian Head half eagles in high grades. Even the most common Philadelphia dates are scarce in MS64 and above and nearly all of the San Francisco issues are very rare to extremely rare in MS64 and above.

The most popular Indian Head half eagle is the 1909-O. It is well-regarded due to its status as the only Indian Head half eagle from New Orleans.

In part two of this article, we'll look at eagles and double eagles.

The Not-So-Secret Secret 1883-O Eagle

About a month ago, I received an auction catalog from Olivier Chaponniere and Hess-Divo, two well-known Swiss firms located in Geneva and Switzerland, respectively. I often toss these catalogs directly into the recycling bin but thought I'd check this one out; if only because Hess-Divo has the reputation of selling some exceptional ancient and European coins. I went right to the United States gold section and started browsing. A few minutes in, I was startled to see an 1883-O eagle that had been graded AU58 by PCGS. From the photo, the coin looked very fresh and very nice and I was, needless to say, very interested.

For those of you that are not familiar with the 1883-O eagle, a little background information is in order. This is the single rarest eagle from New Orleans with an original mintage of only 800. There are around 35-45 known in all grades including a unique Uncirculated piece that I sold around three years ago. There are a total of five graded AU58 at PCGS with none higher. I did a little bit of research on this specific coin and learned that it was new to the PCGS population report and, in all probability, totally fresh to the market.

At this point, I was feeling pretty cocky. After all, it was a European auction and not many American dealers were even going to know about the coin, right?

I started feeling a lot less cocky when I saw these two firms at the Central States show with the American gold coins from the auction on exhibit. My hat goes off to Chaponniere and Hess-Divo. I can't think of many times that European firms have brought American coins to an American show to market them to an American audience. And especially at a non-ANA show; can you imagine the excitement that these Swiss guys must have had regarding four days in Milwaukee? (But that's another story...)

I viewed the coins in person at CSNS and loved the 1883-O. It was fairly baggy but it had nice color, attractive semi-prooflike surfaces and a virtual absence of wear. It was the best 1883-O eagle I had seen in a few years and I felt it was at least the third or fourth finest known; and certainly the only one that was going to be available.

Now I had to determine what to pay for this coin. In regards to the 1883-O eagle, this date is a sort of Numismatic Rare Date Gold Franken-coin. No one cared about this date as recently as a few years ago but I've told collectors for years how rare and desirable it was. Around three years ago, low quality examples started to sell for three or four times more than they had only a few years before this. The last two AU58 examples that I handled were an nice AU58 (ex Pinnacle collection) and a beautiful NGC coin that I sold to a Washington, D.C. collector. I had sold them for less than $40,000 each but figured that in this market that they were going to bring around $60,000. So I bid $55,000 (which translated to $60,000 with the 10% buyers premium).

So how did I do? Not well. The coin sold for an amazing 90,000 Swiss Francs which, according to my on-line currency calculator, is around $78,225. I'm assuming the consignor was even more amazed as the catalogers had estimated the coin to bring 10,000 CHF.

I learned a few valuable lessons from this experience.

The first is, that in this day and age, you could hold a coin auction on the third moon of Saturn and it would still be publicized. The Internet means that the secret auction(s) of yore are now well-attended and the information that is available to collectors regarding pricing makes formerly secret dates not so secret anymore as well.

The second is that good coins will always be found by good collectors. I know the buyer of this coin very well and he was likely to have have bought it no matter where the auction was. The fact that the coins were brought to the CSNS show was amazingly helpful to him and I'm guessing it added at least $20,000 to the bottom line; if not more.

The third is that there are still really cool coins lurking in Europe. You'd think that with American dealers having scoured Switzerland, France, Luxembourg, etc. since the 1950's that there wouldn't be much left anymore. Not true. While coins like this AU58 1883-O eagle don't show up everyday, there are clearly still some eyebrow-raising coins left overseas.

The (Very) High End of the Coin Market Needs Feeding

With less fanfare than in past cycles, the super high end of the art market has suddenly gone ablaze. In the past few months, two iconic works have broken records. On May 4th, Christie’s sold the Picasso painting “Nude, Green Leaves and Bust” for $106.5 million. This painting was owned by the Lasker estate and it was fresh to the market, not having been offered in many decades. I don’t claim to be a Picasso expert (nor have I ever seen this work in person), and my gut tells me that while it was a very nice quality work, it was not considered to be an A+ quality painting, unlike some of the early masterworks painted by Picasso in the early part of the 20th century) that were sold for epic sums last decade.

In February 2010, Sotheby’s garnered considerable attention when they sold Giacometti’s iconic “L’Homme qui Marche I” for $104.3; an all-time record for a sculpture at auction. I personally love Giacometti’s work and though this was an amazing piece of art it was one of five known and it was a challenging, complex sculpture that I think most people just don’t appreciate.

These two sales bring up an interesting question: if a flashy but non-masterpiece Picasso can bring $106.5 million and an iconic but odd sculpture can sell for $104.3 what would fresh, undisputed masterpieces bring in today’s market?

What these two sales have shown is that there is still an incredible amount of wealth in the world and an incredible desire to put this wealth into something tangible like art. This is probably all the more so due to the Greek debt crisis which has impacted European buyers even more than Americans.

These upper market sales have interesting applications to the very high end coin market. Now, obviously, coins don’t sell for $100 million dollars. But there are a number of coins that have brought (or would bring) $1 million or more if they were offered for sale.

It has been a long time since a truly great, truly fresh collection filled with $1 million plus coins came to market. Despite all the amazing coins that have been sold in the last three to five years, just a handful of these were “fresh.”

You’ll notice that I use the expression “fresh” a lot. What exactly does this mean? A coin that has been off the market for ten, 20, 30 or 100 years is “fresh.” This is especially true if it was owned by a specific collector or family and it was not shopped around in the interim. The aforementioned Picasso was fresh to the market as it had hung in the Lasker house since at least the early 1960’s and hadn’t been surreptitiously offered to a few big collectors by sneaky family representatives.

Back in the 1970’s and 1980’s, it was not uncommon for amazing multi-generational family collections to become available. We dealers were spoiled by these collections and almost grew complacent when they were offered. But since the Bass estate was sold in 1999-2000, I can’t think of many “old time” collections that encompassed a broad scope having been sold at public auction.

That’s not to say that some great specialized collections haven’t been made available; both at auction and via private treaty (and don’t let the auction firms fool you into thinking that all the great coins sell at auction. They don’t...) but the very top end of the market hasn’t been tested since the middle of the 2000’s and the amazing top-end results in the art market art exclusive to painting and sculpture.

There are a number of potentially huge buyers waiting in the wings of the coin market if the right coins were to become available. Let’s say, for example, that the coins in the ANA museum (the Bass core collection) became available in 2011. I think you’d see absolutely amazing prices for these coins and I’m not so sure that they would all sell to the usual suspects.

All of a sudden, there seems to be a small “perfect storm” brewing in the world of collectibles. Gold is at an all-time high and I wouldn’t be stunned to see it race past $1,350-1,400 before it cools off as the result of profit taking. The economy is certainly not strong but it has recovered enough that people are spending money again. The wealthy have gotten even wealthier in the last year as a result of a robust stock market but seem uncertain what to do with their profits. The demand for great tangible objects (be they coins, sculptures, paintings, etc.) appears to be quickly rising with very little in the way of supply to satisfy consumers.

What I think this basically means is that if the right collection of coins were to come around in the next year or two, it would completely shatter all existing price records. This would be especially true if this collection met the following parameters: the coins were totally fresh, they were gold, they were interesting, they were well-pedigreed and they were properly marketed. In fact, I think these coins could even bring more than they might have at the peak of the market in 2006 and 2007.

Finally...An Appeciation for San Francisco Gold Coinage (?)

After decades and decades in the dumps, it looks like there are small signs of life in the San Francisco gold coin market. But the activity in this market area is sporadic, to say the least, and is being led by exactly the sort of coins that you wouldn't think would be the pacesetters. There are plenty of overgraded, unappealing high priced San Francisco gold coins on the market right now. You haven't been able to give these away for years. You still can't. San Francisco gold coins that are faux-rarities, uninteresting dates or processed with no eye appeal are impossible to sell.

The coins that are suddenly selling have three things in common:

1. They are genuinely rare dates and most are either from the Civil War era or the years right before the war (i.e., 1858 through 1860).

2. They are well-worn but problem-free coins in the VG to VF grade range. These are true collector coins and this little renaissance of interest is obviously collector-based.

3. They are in PCGS holders. There are a few exceptions to this rule but the people buying these coins seem to want PCGS graded coins. This may be because they are forming Registry Sets.

The denominations that seem to have generated the most interest are half eagles and eagles but from time to time a quarter eagle is included as well.

The recent Heritage Central States auction included a few early, rare San Francisco gold coins that nicely illustrate this new trend. Let's take a quick look at each.

The first was Lot 3476, an 1862-S quarter eagle that was graded F15 by PCGS. This is a rare date in all grades with just 8,000 struck. It sold for $1,092.50 against a Trends value of $550 in F12. Why did it sell for double Trends? The reason is obvious: Trends is way too low for a coin as rare as this. I would have figured it was worth around $700-800 but even at a shade under $1,100 I think its great value.

The second example was an 1859-S half eagle, graded VF25 by PCGS and sold as Lot 3633. It brought $2,323 against a Trends of $1,200 in VF20. I figured it was worth around $1,500-1,750 and actually sold it to the consignor recently for a figure in this range. This coin had a number of things going for it. It was in an old green label holder and it was really nice for the grade. It is a rare, seldom seen issue that is very expensive in higher grades (I sold the second finest known late last year, an NGC MS62, for over $25,000). When you do see EF and AU examples they tend to be pretty yucky quality-wise and at around $2,500 this coin was a fantastic bargain.

The third example was a little bit of a surprise to me: an 1866-S No Motto half eagle in PCGS VF35. Offered as Lot 3636, it brought $3,220 against a Trends of $1,600 in VF20 and $4,250 in EF40. Although this is a numismatically significant date as the final No Motto half eagle from this mint, it is much less rare than the 1859-S and I wasn't really wild about the coin from a quality standpoint. Also interesting was the fact that this date is sometime seen in lower grades, unlike the 1862-S quarter eagle and the 1859-S half eale which are extremely arre in grades below EF40.

Now I know that three auction records do not exactly constitute a full-blown trend but this is not a totally isolated series of incidents. I know that when I have an interesting lower grade San Francisco half eagle or eagle that is affordable and seemingly good value, it typically sells quickly and often well in excess of current published values.

I have noticed that Trends (and Greysheet) values for lower grades (Fine and Very Fine) are way out of whack with reality. Often times, these numbers are years old and have not been changed since gold was priced at below $500 per ounce. Think about it: a coin like an 1862-S quarter eagle in Fine at $550? That just seems like absurdly good value. And coins like this are likely to stay undervalued, at least according to price sheets, due to lower collector activity than silver coins from this era. Enough F12 1862-S Dimes trade that it is possible to have an idea what such a coin is worth. But an 1862-S quarter eagle in this grade? You are talking about a coin with a population of just a few pieces and if two people care about such a coin at any given time, prices at auction can run up quickly.

I'd like to thank Jason Carter of Carter Numismatics in Tulsa OK for suggesting this topic and pointing out this market trend to me.

Overdated United States Gold Coins

One of the most interesting varieties of United States gold coinage is the many overdated issues that exist. Some are very rare and others are common; some are well-known and some are very obscure. But all share a common trait: a high “coolness factor” that makes them desirable with collectors. What are overdates and how can the collector of United States gold coins focus on these issues? An “overdated” coin is one on which two dates are present. A famous example is the 1942/1 dime. An overdate occurs when one of more digits from the current year is punched into an older working die. Overdates are often intentional creations and they may exist for a number of reasons.

In the early years of the US Mint, steel to make dies was scarce and funds were scarcer. The Mint operated on a shoestring budget and if any dies were leftover at the end of the year, there was good reason to reuse them. There are many overdates from the 1790’s and early 1800’s and many were probably caused by economic reasons.

Quality control at the Mint during the early years was often lax and some overdates appear to have been produced by accident. These accidents occurred when an engraver inadvertently employed a date punch that was not consistent with the die he was working on. This appears to be the case with some of the overdated coins produced during the 1830’s and 1840’s.

Let’s look at some of the more interesting overdates that occur on Liberty Head gold coins. We’ll save overdated early U.S. gold coins for another time as the list and scope of these is very comprehensive.

Gold Dollars: There are no gold dollars that were overdated. It is interesting to note that there are very few varieties of note in this entire denomination. The branch mints, where one would have expected an overdate or two to have occurred, never produced one in this denomination.

Quarter Eagles: The Philadelphia, Charlotte and Dahlonega issues from 1839 have been called 1839/8 overdates in the past but this is incorrect. The only genuine overdate for the Liberty Head type is the 1862/1. This is a clearly visible overdate that was probably caused by the stress involved with producing gold coinage during the most intense year of the Civil War. It was once believed to be extremely rare but now is only regarded as very scarce. In higher grades, the 1862/1 is very rare. I have personally seen two or three in Uncirculated including a PCGS MS62 that was the best of these.

Three Dollars: You would think that this odd denomination contained an overdate or two but it does not. In fact, there are virtually no significant varieties.

Half Eagles: The pre-1834 issues of this denomination are fertile ground for overdate collectors. The Liberty Head issues are not as interesting when it comes to varieties. There are only two legitimate overdates: the 1881/0 and the 1901/0-S.

The 1881/0 is an overlooked issue that I think is undervalued and quite interesting. There are hundreds known in circulated grades and it is available even in the lower Mint States grades without much effort. It is rare in MS63, very rare in MS64 and may not exist in Gem. A very presentable Uncirculated 1881/0 half eagle can be obtained for less than $2,000.

The 1901/0-S half eagle is probably the most common overdated Liberty Head gold coin of any denomination. A total of 3,648,000 half eagles were coined in San Francisco in 1901 and my guess is that a decent percentage of these were overdated. This variety is common in circulated grades and easily located in grades up to and including MS63. It is scarce in MS64 and rare in MS65 or better. In lower grades it sells for virtually no premium over a common 1901-S and it is a good introduction to the world of overdates coins for the neophyte.

Eagles: The first few “overdate” issues in this series are either controversial or simply wrong. This parade of suspects is led by the 1839/8 Large Letters (Type of 1838). As with the similarly dated quarter eagles, what has been described as an overdate is, in fact, a defect in the die which can be mistaken for an “1839/8.”

For many years, the 1846/5-O was believed to be an overdate but this has been disproven by me and other specialists. Some collectors believe that an 1849/1848 overdate exists but the pieces that I have are not convincing and I don’t think this variety exists. Same goes for the 1857/5; a variety that has been claimed to exist but which I am certain is not a true overdate.

The only legitimate overdate in the entire Liberty Head eagle series is the 1853/2. The variety has received some fanfare over the years but it is still underappreciated; especially given its status as the only true overdate in the series. I estimate that there are around 125-150 known with most in the EF45 to AU50 range. This variety is very rare in properly graded AU55 and above and extremely rare in Uncirculated. I have seen only one Uncirculated example, an MS61 graded by PCGS.

The 1865-S/Inverted 186 has been called an overdate but it is not; it is actually a blundered date caused by mis-entering the first date punch.

Double Eagles: There is only one overdated Liberty Head double eagle: the 1853/2. This is a somewhat controversial issue and it is one that I have seen a few prominent numismatists (including Dave Bowers) state that it is not an overdate but a recut date. I am of the belief that it is an overdate but that some of the pieces that have been designated as “overdates” but PCGS and NGC are later die states that are questionable. The real 1853/2 double eagle has a bold oblong obverse die dot below the foot of the R in LIBERTY. It also shows fairly clearly within the bottom loop of the 3 the straight-lined base of a 2. There are an estimated 200-250 known in all grades and the 1853/2 is quite scarce in the AU range. It is very rare in Uncirculated with probably no more than a half dozen known. I have seen three or four that grade MS61 or slightly better.

Putting together a set of overdated Liberty Head gold coinage would be a fairly easy task. It would consist of only five coins and only one—the 1853/2 double eagle—is expensive in higher grades. The really fun and challenging overdates tend to occur on the pre-1834 issues but as I mentioned above these are often expensive and some are extremely rare.

The 1878-CC Half Eagle

Having just acquired one of the two or three finest known examples of this date (a PCGS AU58 that is illustrated below) I thought it would be interesting to share some information about one of my favorite half eagles from this mint.

The 1878-CC is among the rarest Carson City half eagles, both in terms of overall and high grade rarity. It is not nearly as well known as the 1870-CC and it doesn't have the cult following that the rare and undervalued 1873-CC has. That said, it is still a coin that is very well respected by specialists.

A total of 9,054 were struck. When I wrote the second edition of my book "Gold Coins of the Carson City Mint" back in 2001, I estimated that there were just 60-70 known in all grades. A decade later this estimate seems a bit on the low side and I'd probably revise the total number known up to the area of 75-100.

As of May 2010, PCGS has graded a total of 64 examples in all grades with none in Uncirculated and a total of twenty in About Uncirculated including five each in AU55 and AU58. NGC has a total of 48 in all grades with one in Uncirculated (more on this in a second) and nineteen in AU including five each in AU55 and AU58. My previous estimate of just three to five known in About Uncirculated now seems very low but I believe that the PCGS and NGC populations for AU are significantly inflated by resubmissions. My best guess is that there are around ten or so properly graded AU's known today.

A few years ago, an example graded MS63PL appeared on the NGC population report. I have never seen this coin and am assuming it is a data entry error. If it does actually exist, it is one of the most significant Carson City half eagles in existence and it is a coin that I would really like to view in person.

The finest 1878-CC Carson City half eagles that I have seen are a small number (around three or four) that grade AU58 by today's standards. The all-time auction record for this date is Stack's 5/08: 4235, graded AU58 by PCGS, that brought $63,250.

The 1878-CC half eagle has a very recognizable "look" and it is an issue that can be distinguished from the Philadelphia and San Francisco half eagles dated 1878 with relative ease.

The 1878-CC has a somewhat fuzzy strike unlike the Philadelphia and San Francisco half eagles of this year which are very sharply impressed. This fuzziness is most evident around the borders and the denticles on a number of pieces are not fully formed. A number have significant weakness at 4:00 and 7:00 on the obverse border.

This is a hard issue to find with good luster. One of the things about the PCGS AU58 that is special for this issue is the fact that the luster is frosty and visible. This is clearly not the case on most 1878-CC half eagles which are not lustrous and have been stripped by processing. The coin shown above has some scattered marks in the fields bt these are fewer than usual for the issue.

The PCGS AU58 1878-CC half eagle shown in the photo above will be available for sale in a few weeks along with some other remarkable Condition Census CC half eagles from the same collection. For information on any of these coins please contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.

The Numismatic Double Play

Say the words "double play" and most people think of Jeter to Cano to Texeira. But in the world of gold coins, the concept of the double play has another meaning altogether. Back in the 1980's and the 1990's it was common to see large-sized U.S. gold coins marketed with the "double play" strategy. What this meant was that these coins had two inherent factors that contributed to their price structure: their intrinsic gold value and their numismatic value.

The double play concept became stale over the course of time and marketers moved on to find other way to peddle their product. But I believe that this is an idea with merit and one that should be revisited in today's value-conscious market.

People who buy U.S. gold coins typically fall into two camps: those who are investors and those who are collectors. What if a third category became a factor in the market; an investor-collector hybrid who focused on semi-scarce to scarce issues that sold for relatively small premiums above their basal value(s)?

There are basically two denominations that are perfect for the investor-collector hybrid: the ten dollar gold piece (or "eagle") and the twenty dollar gold piece (or "double eagle"). If you're with me so far, I'm going to suggest that we narrow our focus to two specific issues: the With Motto Liberty Head eagle (produced from 1866 through 1907) and the Type Two Liberty Head double eagle (produced from 1866 through 1876).

Here are some basic facts about these issues. The With Motto Liberty Head eagle weighs 16.718 grams and it contains 90% gold. As I write this article (in mid-April 2010) gold is trading for a touch above $1156 per ounce. The trading levels for eagles are as follows:

MS60: $700 MS62: $740 MS63: $1,210

It doesn't take a numismatic genius to immediately note that MS62 appears to be the best value grade for this type. At just a $40 premium above MS60 coins, you are talking around a 5% increase for what is generally going to be a much nicer coin. So for the sake of convenience, let's stick with the MS62 grade for this denomination.

The "base line" date for Liberty Head with motto eagles is the 1894 as it has the highest PCGS population in Uncirculated and in MS62. There have been 18,116 examples graded by PCGS or which 6,013 are in MS62. These numbers are, of course, swollen by resubmissions but the ratio of around one-third of all 1894's graded being in MS62 seems correct based on my experience.

There are a host of dates that we can compare with the 1894 but, again for the sake of brevity, let's focus on three of them. The first is the 1883. This issue has an original mintage figure of 208,700 (compared to 2,470,735 for the 1894). It isn't a remarkably interesting date but it is extremely rare in higher grades (PCGS has never graded an MS65 and only four have been graded MS64 by this service; in MS62 they have graded 261) and there is a big price jump between MS62 (current Trends is $865) and MS63 (current Trends is $2,500). Given the fact that the 1883 is, in theory, around twenty to thirty times rarer than the base line 1894 in MS62, it seems that its current $100-150 premium in this grade is pretty reasonable.

Let's look at another date, the 1900-S. I have always liked this date and think its a real "sleeper" in higher grades. PCGS has a current population of 31 in MS62 with just 16 better than this including a single coin above MS64. Given this coin's relative scarcity in Uncirculated, you'd figure it would have a pretty decent premium above the 1894, right? In MS62, current Trends is $1,100 (it jumps to a comparatively high $5,650 in MS63) and I have purchased examples in the last year for around $1,000. Now I understand that an MS62 1900-S eagle isn't going to be the Poster Child for U.S. gold coins anytime soon but it seems like awfully good value to me, given that a common, boring old 1894 in MS62 is worth around $750.

How about a date that actually has a degree of collector demand? Let's take a quick look at the 1901-O. It is one of the more available New Orleans eagles in higher grades but it has the appeal of being from a popular southern branch mint. The current PCGS population is 103 in MS62 with 61 better including just a single coin above MS64. I doubt if more than 125-150 properly graded MS62 examples exist yet current Trends is just $865 in MS62 (it jumps to $2,750 in MS63). Given the fact that a 1901-O eagle in MS62 is popular, reasonably scarce in this grade and is probably not a bad looking coin at this grade level, its very small premium above the common 1894 is fairly baffling to me.

What if someone were to promote the 1901-O in MS62? Given the fact that a year's worth of quiet, under-the-radar buying would probably only produce 40-50 coins, it hardly seems worth the effort. That said, it seems like an easy coin to promote up to the $1,250-1,500 level in MS62.

What are some of the MS62 Liberty Head eagles that I would recommend as good double-play issues? Some of the dates I like include the 1879, 1882-S, 1884, 1884-S, 1886, 1890, 1893-O, 1894-O, 1895-O, 1897-O, 1899-O, 1900-S, 1906-O, 1906-S and 1907-S.

The second type of U.S. gold coin that offers double play potential is the Type Two double eagle. But this series is different than the With Motto eagles that we discussed above. Type Two double eagles are more popular with collectors and they tend to be be rare to very rare in Uncirculated grades.

The base line issue for this type is the 1873 Open 3. It has an original mintage figure of over 1,000,000 and a high survival rate with probably more than 10,000 coins known in all grades. PCGS shows a current overall population of 4,027 of which 1,356 have been graded from AU50 to AU58.

The trading levels for AU55 to MS60 1873 Open 3 double eagles are as follows:

AU55: 1400-1500 AU58: 1500-1600 MS60: 1650-1750+

Let's look at two slightly better dates and see if the double play concept makes sense. The first is the 1867. This is a relatively popular issue with collectors that has an original mintage of just over 250,000. PCGS has graded 304 in all grades of which 131 are in the various AU grades and another 24 are in MS60. In grades above MS61 to MS62, the 1867 is extremely scarce, so nice AU's tend to be popular with specialists in the series.

The current Trends levels for the 1867 are $2,000 in AU55, $2,500 in AU58 and $4,000 in MS60. The premium in MS60 is high enough that it is not a good double-play issue. But in AU55, the premium is fairly low over the base line 1873 Open 3. My conclusion is that a nice AU55 to AU58 1867 double eagle in the $2,000-2,250 range is a great value for the double play investor-collector.

The second date is the 1872-S. This is a date that is regarded as semi-common; not quite at the level of the base line of the 1873 Open 3 but certainly nowhere as scarce as such earlier San Francisco issues as the 1866-S, 1867-S, 1869-S or 1870-S.

The mintage figure for the 1872-S is 720,000. The survival rate is quite low as most were melted over the years and I doubt if more than 2,500 pieces exist. PCGS has graded 551 in all grades including 343 in About Uncirculated. To give you an idea of this coin's rarity in higher grades, of the 52 that PCGS has graded in Uncirculated, only four are better than MS61 and none are higher than MS62.

You can buy a nice 1872-S in AU58 for around $2,000-2,250. As I mentioned above the base line for an AU58 Type Two double eagle is in the $1,500-1,600 range.

The Type Two double eagles in AU grades that I feel are good double play issues include the 1867, 1868-S, 1869, 1869-S, 1870-S, 1871, 1871-S, 1872, 1872-S and 1873-S Open 3.

The double play strategy may or may not prove to be fruitful for the hyrbrid investor-collector. But with the premiums for genuinely scarce issues like the ones mentioned above at very low levels (some of the lowest premiums that I can remeber, in fact) I think it is a strategy with minimal downside.

Some Thoughts on PCGS’ New Secure Plus Program

PCGS recently released the details on their new Secure Plus program. Instead of summarizing it here, I’d suggest that your go to their website and play the video link that will explain their interpretation of the new program. I’d like to share with you some of my thoughts and feelings about it. You can essentially split this new program down the middle and look at it as two distinct facets. To me, the “Secure” aspect is a no-brainer. In a nutshell, PCGS has basically harnessed the technology that will enable them to make a record of all the coins that are submitted to them under this new program. They claim it will end coin doctoring and stop gradeflation in its tracks.

As someone who has been pretty public in his disgust with coin doctoring for many years, I’m glad that PCGS is instituting this program. By the same token, it seems sad to me that a) this had to happen and b) that it took as long as it did. In some areas of the market, there are barely any “original” coins left. PCGS’ step is sort of like making a decision to preserve Bison in 1937: great idea but a little late in coming.

I have always partially attributed coin doctoring, to some degree at least, on PCGS and NGC. If these services had rewarded originality from the beginning and had been really, truly consistent this would have eliminated a lot of the doctoring that has occurred for the last twenty+ years. In the area that I specialize in, United States gold produced from 1795 to 1900, “bright and shiny” has always trumped “dark and crusty.” The irony here is that, finally, dark and crusty is becoming in style. After decades of coins being dipped, dunked, doctored and debilitated (catchy, no?) the coins with character that many people want are exceptionally hard to find.

While PCGS is not really publicizing this, I think the security aspect will be very important in their future efforts to fight counterfeit coins and holders coming in from China. I can’t possibly imagine that some clever guy in Shanghai isn’t already coming up with remarkably good quality early type coins or better date dollars. All it takes is a good distribution system for these to flood the market and by PCGS making it harder for these coins to make it through, that has to be a big positive.

One thing I am a little baffled about is what are we to make of the millions and millions of coins already graded by PCGS? Obviously, the nicest coins are going to be placed into the new Secure Plus holders. But what about the 1% or 2% of the coins that are outright mistakes? What about the coins that people, for whatever reason, decide not to resubmit/regrade? This is going to create a number of secondary markets and it will be certain to cause confusion.

The “Plus” aspect of this new PCGS service is more controversial, in my opinion. What the plus grades will do is to take an area that is already subjective and make them even more so. Now this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. PCGS is essentially decimalizing grading (a subject that I wrote about a number of years ago) and this is something that I believe that very good graders can do. But it puts a lot of pressure on PCGS (and NGC’s) graders to be very consistent and very accurate. Will a PCGS grader who is rushing through a cart full of coins to grade be able to figure whether an early type coin is a 63.8 and follow this coin up with a Saint that he has to determine if it’s a 65.8? It can be done but not easily.

The pricing of Plus coins is going to be very interesting. I’ve written extensively on how broken the price reporting mechanism in the coin market is and how badly it needs to be fixed. So, if we can’t accurately get the value for an MS63 Charlotte half eagle, how are we going to get the value for a 63+? And how consistently graded will the Plus coins be? Will one MS63+ Charlotte half eagle be a 63.7 while another is a 63.9? PCGS expects there to be sight-unseen trading for these coins so I’m hoping they will be graded with enough consistency for this to occur.

Getting back to the pricing issue for a second, it will be very interesting to see how the market values Plus coins in split grades where there is a huge difference in values. As an example, a common date Indian Head half eagle in MS64 is worth around $3,500. An MS65 is worth around $15,000. What does that make a 64+ worth? $4,000? $6,000? 9,000? Until there have been a few hundred Indian Head half eagles graded 64+ by PCGS and they’ve traded I’m not sure that will be a good answer.

It’s been sort of lost in the hype that NGC is working on a plan of their own. I am pleased that NGC is adopting the same plus system that PCGS is. Can you imagine how confusing it would be to have two different grading services using two different grading standards?

I’ve seen a lot of changes in the rare coin market in the last few decades and, for the most part, I’ve been an early adapter to those changes that I liked and believed in. I’m taking a bit of a wait and see approach with PCGS’ new system; mainly because I’d like to see a significant number of newly-graded coins. If I like the system, I will become an enthusiastic convert. But from what I can tell so far, these changes are being done with good intentions and they are destined to have a major impact in 2010 and beyond.

Are Auction Prices Wholesale or Retail?

Until a few years ago, the vast majority of coins that sold at auction were purchased by dealers. It was a safe bet to say that the prices realized at auctions were wholesale and collectors could assume that they would typically pay 10-20% more than what coins were selling for at auction. But this has all changed. One of the key elements to Heritage's rousing success in the coin auction business has been to make sales more collector-friendly. Today, a sizable amount of the coins that sell at auction are going directly to collectors. So, are auction prices now representative of the wholesale or retail markets? The answer is not as easy as you might think...

The answer is actually, as you might have, guessed, "answers." Nothing in the coin market is cut and dry anymore and the new auction market and the prices that coins fetch in an auction conducted in 2010 can have a broad range.

The first thing that has to be analyzed is what coin is being sold. If it's something that's extremely collector-friendly (like a rare date Type One Liberty Head double eagle) the price realized is likely to represent a retail level as it is likely to have been sold to a collector. If it's a widget or a low-end coin that sells cheaply we can assume that a bottom-feeder dealer bought it and the price it brought is clearly at the wholesale level.

The next thing that has to be gauged is the quality of the sale itself. One of the most amazing things about the Bass sales, in my opinion, was the fact that virtually all the coins were bought by dealers. If the Bass sales were to be held today (and conducted by a technologically savvy firm like Heritage) I would venture to guess that over 50% of the coins would be sold for retail as opposed to wholesale prices.

Is the coin in an auction a grading play? (In other words, is it an AU58 in an older holder that would upgrade to MS61 to MS62?) In this case it is a virtual certainty that the coin sold to a dealer. But there is an immediate asterisk that must be applied to the sales price. If the coin is worth $5,000 in AU58 and $13,000 in MS62, it is highly possible that at least two ramblin' gamblin' dealers would pay $10,000-11,000 for the coin. In such an instance, the collector needs to be careful not to assume that just because one AU58 coin sold at auction for $10,000-11,000, the next one(s) will as well.

Auction records are most useful when they occur with some degree of frequency (two or three examples per year) and when any anomalies can be discarded.

Let's say, for example, that a certain Charlotte quarter eagle in AU55 has sold at auction five times since 2007. The prices realized have been $3,500, $3,750, $2,650, $8,000 and $4,000. We can pretty much immediately boot the $8,000 auction record as we can assume that this was a severely under-graded coin with a large spread to the next highest grade(s). We can also boot the $2,650 record as this may have been for an extremely low end coin or it may have been in a "bloodbath" auction that, for a host of reasons, saw very low overall prices in specific areas of the market. This leaves us with three prices: $3,500, $3,750 and $4,000. A quick assumption can now be made that this AU55 Charlotte quarter eagle has a value in the range of $3,500 to $4,000. Another way of looking at this is that the wholesale value might be $3,500 while the retail value might be $4,000.

I have a theory that auction firms give collectors just enough information to do damage to themselves. They provide an archive of auction prices which show what coins have sold for and with a little bit of digging, the collector can determine if the coin sold on the floor, over the phone or to an Internet bidder. But unless someone really follows the market carefully, all of this "information" can do little more than serve as an easy way for the neophyte to make major mistakes. I have long said that hiring an auction representative for 5% is far and away the best value in all of numismatics. This fee (which amount to a whopping $250 on a $5,000 coin) is a small price to pay to have a specialist explain to you why a certain auction record is valid or not valid.

So 700+ words later, I'm back to my basic question: are auction prices wholesale or retail? As you can plainly see, there is no quick answer to this and I urge collectors, new or experienced, not to be lulled into a false sense of security based on what seems like unquestionable information.