Overall and Comparative Rarity Analysis of Dahlonega Gold Coinage

Using the revised population estimates in the third edition of my book, it is possible to make some interesting observations and conclusions regarding Dahlonega coinage. As an example, it is possible to estimate the average number of survivors for each denomination, the percentage of survivors by grade, and an overall percentage of survival for an entire denomination. 1. GOLD DOLLARS

Estimated Number Extant: 2415-3025 Issues Struck: 13 Average Extant Per Issue: 185.76-232.69 Total Extant by Grade: Very Fine and Below: 227-319 Extremely Fine: 916-1110 About Uncirculated: 1125-1385 Uncirculated: 147-211

% of Total Population: Very Fine and Below: 9.39-10.54 Extremely Fine: 36.69-37.92 About Uncirculated: 45.78-46.58 Uncirculated: 6.08-6.97

Original Mintage Figure, all issues: 73,259-74,209 (NOTE: this is expressed as a range due to the fact that the original mintage figure for the 1861-D dollar is not known)

Estimated Survival Rate: 3.28-4.08

Analysis: The data from the third edition of this book shows that gold dollars from Dahlonega continue to be easier to locate in higher grades than their quarter eagle and half eagle counterparts. The average number of coins known per issue is slightly lower than one might expect. But given the small size of these coins and the conditions by which they circulated, it remains a wonder that as many have survived as are known today.

It is interesting to compare the survival rate of Dahlonega gold dollars to other branch mint coins of this denomination. As a rule, for branch mint coins struck prior to the Civil War, the survival rate is generally in the range of 1 to 2%. For gold dollars this seems to be higher but in the case of the Dahlonega issues, much of this has to do with the high number of 1849-D dollars that have survived. If you remove this date from the equation, the surviving percentage fits nicely within the parameters of the above-referenced survival range(s).

Dahlonega gold dollars are certainly more available in higher grades (About Uncirculated and above) than the quarter eagles, three dollars, and half eagles from this mint. Over 50% of all known Dahlonega gold dollars grade About Uncirculated or Uncirculated and close to 90% grade Extremely Fine or better. This is considerably higher than it is for the other denominations from this mint.

This suggests at least two things: that Dahlonega gold dollars did not circulated as long and as hard as the other denominations, and that relatively large quantities of higher grade Dahlonega gold dollars have become available as the result of hoards and/or accumulations. Another possible explanation for the high survival rate in higher grades might be that the small size of the dollars did not make them as attractive to melters as the larger sized issues were, and this made them somewhat more likely to survive.

The overall population of many dates in the gold dollar series has been underestimated for many years. As an example, in the 1960’s and 1970’s it was often written that fewer than a dozen 1856-D dollars were known. We now know that the actual number might be as great as 100 or so coins. One of the reasons that the rarity of this date was overstated (along with the 1854-D, 1860-D and 1861-D) is that these issues all had tiny original mintages.

The 1856-D is a good example to illustrate this. Only 1,460 were produced. Using the assumption that around 1% of these should have survived one can see how an estimate of a “dozen or so” might have come about.

Dahlonega gold dollars are a good example of the adage that you can’t judge the rarity of a specific issue solely by its original mintage figure.

2. QUARTER EAGLES

Estimated Number Extant: 3,195-3,915 Issues Struck: 20 Average Extant Per Issue: 159.75-195.75 Total Extant By Grade: Very Fine and Below: 716-926 Extremely Fine: 1270-1533 About Uncirculated: 1037-1245 Uncirculated: 104-141

% of Total Population: Very Fine and Below: 22.41-23.65 Extremely Fine: 39.15-39.74 About Uncirculated: 31.80-32.45 Uncirculated: 3.25-3.60

Original Mintage Figure, all Issues: 197,850

Estimated Survival rate: 1.61-1.97

Analysis: Quarter Eagles remain the rarest of the three primary denominations of coins struck at the Dahlonega mint both in terms of overall rarity and rarity in high grades.

When I last did this statistical analysis, I believed that around 70% of all Dahlonega quarter eagles were in lower grades; i.e., Extremely Fine and below. Today, I estimate this number to be like 60%. This shift is due to gradeflation and many coins that were formerly VF became EF (and EF’s became AU’s).

Uncirculated quarter eagles from this mint remain very rare. Less than 3.5% of all known Dahlonega quarter eagles are Uncirculated and this number is more impressive when you consider that five dates (1839-D, 1844-D, 1847-D, 1848-D and 1857-D) constitute around 75% of the known Dahlonega quarter eagles in Uncirculated. The rarity of high grade Dahlonega quarter eagles has remained remarkably consistent since the last edition of this book was written in 2003.

In the last edition of this book, I suggested that the estimated survival rate for this denomination was between 1.18 and 1.37%. I believe that this was a bit too low and now the range is from 1.61 to 1.97%. As time passes, it is likely that the survival rate will become slightly higher than 2% of the original mintage figure for this denomination.

20 Interesting, Undervalued U.S. Gold Coins You Can Buy for Less Than $5,000

In a recent blog, I mentioned the fact that the entry level to become a buyer of interesting United States gold coins was a much lower barrier than many new collectors realize. I mentioned some general issues and types that could be found in the $1,000-2,500 range that I felt were interesting and good values. I'd like to expand this idea and discuss 20 specific rare coins that can be purchased for $5,000 or less. 1. 1865 Gold Dollar. Unlike the low mintage gold dollars from the 1880's, this Civil War issue was actually used in commerce. Only 3,700 business strikes were produced and just a few hundred examples are known today. I wouldn't exactly call this issue "rare" but it is certainly not one that you are going to be able to go to a national-caliber coin show and find more than one or two; if that.

For a collector with a $5,000 per coin budget, you can buy a really nice 1865 gold dollar. As an example, Heritage 1/11: 6672, graded MS61 by NGC, brought a reasonable $3,450. I sold a solid PCGS AU58 last year as an "E-Special" to raregoldcoins.com preferred clients for $1,500.

2. 1872 Gold Dollar. The 1872 is another low mintage issue but it doesn't receive the attention that the 1865 does since it isn't a Civil War issue. Only 3,500 were struck and I doubt if more than 200 or so are known; most in the AU53 to MS61 range.

This date remains very affordable in the lower Uncirculated grades as witnessed by the recent sale of an NGC MS62 for $1,265 in the Heritage June 2011 auction. Interestingly, only one example better than MS64 has sold at auction since January 2009 (an MS67) yet a nice quality MS64 should be available, with some searching, for around $3,000.

3. 1839 Quarter Eagle. This date has been a favorite of mine for years. It is by far the rarest Philadelphia Classic Head quarter eagle. Interestingly, it has fewer appearances at auction over the last two decades than the celebrated 1838-C and 1839-D and it might actually be a rarer issue than these two first-year branch mint emissions.

Despite the scarcity of the 1839, it remains a good value for the collector with a $5,000 and lower budget. An AU50 is currently worth Around $2,500-3,000 while an AU55 goes for $3,500-4,000 and an AU58 should sell for $4,500-5,000. Be aware of the fact that this is an extremely hard date to find with natural color and surfaces and a choice, high piece is worth as much as a 50% premium over a typical example.

4. 1845-O Quarter Eagle. This is another long-time favorite of mine. The 1845-O is by far the scarcest quarter eagle from New Orleans and it has an original mintage of just 4,000. This date has been recognized as a rarity in higher grades and a nice AU coin is going to be out of reach for the collector with a $5,000 budget. But that doesn't mean that a presentable example is out of the question.

I sold a nice NGC VF25 example of this date a few months ago for around $1,500. Heritage 3/11: 4631, graded EF40 by PCGS, sold for $4,025 and as far as I can tell this seems to be a record price for an EF40 that was clearly not going to upgrade; others have sold in this grade for $2,500-3,000 in the last few years. I can see EF's eclipsing the $5,000 mark in the near-future so this is one undervalued date that might not be so undervalued the next time I write an article of this sort!

5. 1867 Quarter Eagle. You'd think that an issue with a total PCGS population of just twenty-nine in all grades (that's the exact same number, by the way, as the 1856-D quarter eagle; an issue that's worth more than 10x an 1867 in AU) would be better recognized as a scarcity. Yet the 1867 continues to languish and it remains an affordable issue.

Trends for the 1867 quarter eagle is $1,900 in AU55 and $3,000 in AU58 and, when available, examples tend to sell for a discount in relation to these numbers. If just a few people started to collect Liberty Head quarter eagles by date (or if one or two people began to haord 1867 quarter eagles) I could see the price of this issue doubling nearly overnight.

6. 1883 Quarter Eagle. The date run of quarter eagles produced between 1877 and 1895 contains many low mintage issues and a number of these are affordable, scarce and undervalued. I probably could have chosen four or five of them for this article but decided to focus on the 1883, an issue that I like very much.

Just 1,920 business strikes were made and my best estimate is that around 100-125 are known today. I have never personally seen an 1883 quarter eagle that graded higher than MS62 and only one or two at that level. The last Uncirculated piece to sell was an NGC MS61 that brought $4,313 in the Heritage 3/11 auction. Despite this coin obvious rarity, you can still buy a nice AU in the $2,000-3,000 range and MS61 examples have sold in the $3,500-4,500 during the last few years.

7. 1867 Three Dollars. In circulated grades, the 1867 doesn't sell for all that much of a premium over some reasonably common dates of this design. I have found the 1867 to be a challenging coin to locate and it appears for sale less often than such heralded issues as the 1864, 1870, 1871 and 1872. There were 2,600 struck and most are seen in the AU grades.

For $3,000 to $4,000 you can purchase an attractive AU5 to AU58 1867 Three Dollar gold piece. I would personally look for a really choice AU58 with original color and choice surfaces. These pieces do exist although they are hard to find.

8. 1884 Three Dollar. I've been a big fan of the low mintage Three Dollar gold pieces from the 1880's for years. The 1884 is not the rarest issue of this group (that honor belongs to the 1881) but it is very underrated, especially in higher grades.

There were exactly 1,000 business strikes produced. Unlike many of the low mintage Threes of this era, the 1884 is nearly impossible to find in grades above MS63. In Uncirculated, this date is going to be out of the price range for the sub-$5,000 coin buyer but I have sold at least two or three nice AU58's for less than $4,250 in the last two years.

9. 1842 Large Letters and Small Letters Half Eagle(s). There are a number of No Motto half eagles that are great values for less than $5,000 and both varieties of half eagle dated 1842 rank close to the top. The Large Letters is the scarcer of the two but both are extremely hard to locate.

Every year at auction, I only see maybe one or two decent 1842 half eagles yet EF coins continue to sell in the $2,000-2,500 range while AU's bring around $4,000-5,000 depending on quality. I very rarely see examples that are choice and original and I personally think a high end coin, even in VF grades is worth a significant premium.

10. 1842-O Half Eagle. I could have put at least three (if not four) New Orleans half eagles in this article. Despite a big boost in popularity in the last few years, nice EF No Motto examples of the scarcer date New Orleans half eagles remain within reach of most collectors.

The 1842-O is the second rarest half eagle from this mint. Probably no more than 50-75 are known from a mintage of 16,400. I just sold a very presentable VF example for around $1,500. Last summer, a pair of PCGS EF45's sold at auction for $3,738 and $3,881 respectively. I think a really nice EF45 coin can still be bought for less than $5,000 and I think it's one of the single best values in this group of twenty: a rare coin, a coin that's in demand and an issue that becomes extremely pricey as the grade scale is increased.

11. Undervalued Dahlonega Half Eagles. Even though this series is avidly collected by date, there are at least three Dahlonega half eagles that I can think of that carry virtually no premium in VF and EF grades yet are two or three times rarer than the "common" dates of this type. The ones that come to mind are the 1846-D Normal Mintmark, the 1848-D and the 1851-D.

The most recent Coin World Trends values the common date 1853-D and 1854-D at $3,000 in EF45. In the same grade, the 1846-D Normal Mintmark is valued at $2,750, the 1848-D at $2,750 as well and the 1851-D at $3,000. At common date valuations, these three issues are extremely good buys for the collector. A little hint: the 1848-D half eagle is really rare in EF with a sharp strike and natural color. At a price anywhere near its current Trends value, it is a really exceptional deal.

12. 1850 Half Eagle. This is the rarest half eagle struck at the Philadelphia mint between 1843 and 1862 (with the possible exception of the 1859 which is another really undervalued issue). Yet the last two I've sold in AU58 (both were nice coins, by the way) fetched around $1,500 each.

The 1850 half eagle is actually a scarcer coin in AU grades than its Charlotte and Dahlonega counterparts; at around a quarter of the price. Yes, I know the C+D mint issues are around four times more popular but the 1850 half eagle still seems like a great value.

13. San Francisco Half Eagles, 1858-1867. If you like truly rare coins and have $2,500-$5,000 to spend on each purchase, this subgroup would make for a very interesting date run. You can't buy the 1864-S in any grade without spending at least $10,000+ but the other nine dates will be within your budget as long as you focus on VF and EF grades.

Most of these issues have surviving populations of less than 100 coins and nearly all become very rare and very expensive in AU50 and higher. Yet they remain affordable in VF and EF grades. They certainly aren't plentiful; as an example, PCGS has only graded twenty-five examples of the 1862-S in EF and lower grades. Factoring in resubmissions and ugly coins, this probably equates to no more than fifteen or so pieces. Rare, yes, but not so much so that you can't find one without some patience. And at $3,000-4,000 for a nice VF+ example, a hard coin not to like!

14. Slider No Motto Liberty Head Eagles. If I were collecting gold coins and had a $2,500-5,000 per coin budget I'd give very serious thought to assembling a date run of No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840's and the 1850's.

With the exception of a few dates (the 1844-1846 and 1858), most of these issues can be found in AU58 in this price range. The more common dates can be found for less than $1,500. Given the fact that a very common With Motto issue has a "basal value" of around $750-850 in slider grades, the fact that you can buy a coin like, say, an 1852 $10 in AU58 for around $1,500 seems like great value to me.

15. 1862-1877 Liberty Head eagles. As long as you are patient and willing to buy coins in the VF-EF range, there are some great values in the eagles series. Almost every date struck between 1862 and 1877 at the Philadelphia and San Francisco mints was melted in abundance and this fact, coupled with low original mintages in many cases means rare dates. In most cases, we're talking about 75-100 known.

It would be fun to collect coins like this in conjunction with similarly dated half eagles. In the eagle series, your $2,500 per coin expenditure isn't going to go very far so it might be wise to budget closer to $5,000 per coin. At this level there are plenty of interesting coins.

16. "Better Date" Liberty Eagles, 1880-1907. One of the consequences of the current weakness in the generic gold market is the near-total evaporation of the Market Premium Factor for certain semi-scarce to scarce eagles produced in the 1880's, 1890's and early 1900's.

Let me give you an example. Currently, a generic MS62 Liberty eagle is worth around $850. For $900-$1,100 you can buy coins like an 1882-S or an 1889-S in this grade that are many times scarcer than a common date. Will the market premium factor that these issues once had ever return? I think they will, to a degree. But in the mean time, it's kind of fun to buy conditionally scarce coins for little or no premium.

17. 1889 Eagle. I couldn't mention the late dates of this denomination without specifically discussing the rare 1889. You can make the case that a number of the issues from the 1880's and 1890's are scarce solely based on grade but not the 1889; this is a genuinely scarce coin in all grades with an original mintage of just 4,440.

An About Uncirculated 1889 eagle has a current market value of around $2,000. In Uncirculated, you should expect to spend around $4,000 or more for an MS60. It should be noted that this date almost never comes with good eye appeal so, in this case, a clean(ish) AU55 might actually make more sense than an abraded MS60 to MS61.

18. 1854 through 1858 Philadelphia Double Eagles. No, I don't own rolls of these and am not constantly self-promoting them. But as a dealer who sells alot of Type One double eagles, I'm always looking out for the 1854 Large Date, 1855, 1856, 1857 and 1858 in nice AU53 to AU58.

My experience has shown me that these coins are very popular, very liquid and still within the budget constraints of most collectors. I find that many San Francisco Type One double eagles are not well struck and have appearance issues. These five Philadelphia issues tend to be better struck and have better eye appeal than their San Francisco counterparts.

19. 1869, 1870 and 1871 Double Eagles. These three Type Two Philadelphia double eagles remain affordable in EF and AU grades yet they are scarce and desirable issues.

Of the three, I personally like the 1871 the most but all are hard to find in the higher AU grades. You are looking at around $3,000 for a low-end AU and a bit more than $5,000 for a coin at the upper end of this range. I'd suggest being patient and waiting for examples that are clean for the grade, choice and as original as possible.

20. Big Spread S Mint Type Three Double Eagles. The early date San Francisco Type Three issues (specifically those produced between 1877 and 1882) are true condition rarities. Most of these issues are expensive in MS62 and above but affordable in MS61. I like the value of these coins in MS61.

Here's an example. In MS62, an 1879-S is worth in the $11,000-13,000 range. The same date in MS61 is worth around $4,000 to 5,000. In some cases, a high end MS61 is as attractive as a lower end MS62. As Type Threes become more popular with date collectors (and I think they will), it seems like many people will gravitate towards the 1879-S in nice MS61.

There are dozens of other undervalued United States gold coins that could have made this list. I'd be curious to hear from you with your comments about omissions as well as about those included on this list.

The State of the Liberty Head Double Eagle Market: 2011

The level of popularity for the Liberty Head double eagle series, struck between 1850 and 1907, shows no signs of abating. In fact, I think these are the most avidly collected United States gold coins by date. How has the market fared for $20 Libs. in the last three to five years and what does the future portend? Let's take a look at the State of the Market for Liberty Head double eagles. 1. The Impact of Bullion Prices on $20 Libs

At the end of May 2006, the price of gold stood at around $660 per ounce. Five years later, gold hovered near $1,530 and it had reached a high of over $1,600 earlier in the Spring. Obviously, this huge increase has had an impact on the market for twenty dollar gold pieces.

In May 2006, a generic Liberty Head double eagle in MS63 would have cost a collector around $900. Today, the same coin costs around $1800-1900. The first thing that is noticeable from this is that the value of a generic double eagle relative to its gold content has dropped appreciably. In fact, the spread between the spot price and the numismatic value is as low, in May 2011, as I can recall.

While generic prices have dropped, the demand for scarce and rare collector-oriented Liberty Head double eagles has increased considerably. Let's take a look at two examples.

In May 2006, an AU55 example of the popular 1850 double eagle would have cost a collector somewhere in the area of $3,000-3,500. Today, the same coin typically sells for $5,500-6,000. This is interesting as this is one of the few areas in the numismatic market where a rare coin (the 1850) has actually performed as well as the generic issue since 2006.

Let's also look at a common date Carson City issue. In May 2006, an AU58 example of an 1875-CC was likely to sell in the $2,500-2,750 range. Today, the same coin will bring $4,000-4,500. From an investment standpoint, the $20 Liberty Head market has performed well in the past five years. But this is not a blanket statement and certain areas have done better than others. We will explore these later in this article.

2. What's Popular in this Market in 2011?

As someone who buys and sells hundreds of Liberty Head double eagles each month, I have a good feel for what's popular and what's not. In my observation, I can see a strong level of demand in certain areas. These include nearly all Type One issues in the $2,000-5,000 range, most affordable Carson City double eagles, very scarce and rare dates in all three types, shipwreck coins (more on these later), and coins with exceptional eye appeal. If I had to name some of the specific dates that seem to be in particularly strong demand right now, I'd include the following: 1854-S, 1856, 1859, 1862, 1863, 1868, and 1880.

Areas in the market that seem weak include generics, grade rarities (an example of this would be a coin like an 1888-S in MS64 which is a fairly common date in grades up to and including MS63 but a "rare" and expensive one in grades above this), rarities that showed huge price increases in the middle of the last decade, and coins that have poor overall eye appeal.

3. The Market For Rare Date Liberty Head Double Eagles

The top end of the Liberty Head double eagle market showed incredible strength during the 2000's. Let's look at a few examples.

The 1866-S No Motto was an issue that was considered esoteric 10-15 years ago and I can remember literally begging clients of mine to buy nice EF and AU examples as they seemed incredibly undervalued to me at the time. This issue caught fire and prices soared. In the early part of the 2000's, an AU50 1866-S No Motto double eagle could be purchased for $8,000-10,000. By 2007-2008, the same date in this grade would have realized $40,000+ at auction; and probably would have been far less attractive, for the grade, as the example(s) available in 2000. Today, this same coin is worth in the low to mid-30's.

Possibly the most dramatic price swings in the $20 Lib. series have been for the major rarities like the 1854-O, 1856-O, 1861-S Paquet, and the 1870-CC. These coins became very expensive by the 2006-2008 boom years and, quite frankly, they became priced out of range of all but the wealthiest collectors and investors. These four issues have seen drops of 20-30% since their market highs, but I am noticing that they are starting to percolate once again and prices are raising. I think that buyers of these very rare issues are far more particular than they were five years ago and if a coin that is priced at $250,000 and up doesn't have good eye appeal it will prove to be a hard sell.

4. The Strength of the Market in Cool "One of a Kinds"

While the classic rarities in the Liberty Head double eagle series have taken a bit of a hit lately, the upper end of the market is far from weak. In fact, the market for really cool, really nice condition rarities is exceptionally strong and deep. Usually, coins of this sort wind-up at auction. I can think of a number of these; for the sake of brevity let's look at two.

In the recent Heritage Central States sale (April 2011) there was a gorgeous PCGS MS63 CAC 1869 double eagle. The coin had great color and surfaces and was fresh, choice and high end. Its a population four coin with two graded higher at PCGS and it was the second best I'd ever seen. Trends at the time was $28,500 and I expected this coin to bring in the low to mid-30's. It sold for $45,885. A great coin, yes, but a really robust price especially considering that Type Two double eagles are somewhat out-of-favor with collectors right now.

Another interesting "one of a kind" coin was the NGC MS65 1852-O that was sold as lot 5243 in the Heritage 2011 FUN sale in January. While I wasn't absolutely crazy about this coin from a quality standpoint (I graded it MS64 but didn't think it was a Gem) there was no denying it was a special coin for an O mint double eagle. And the fact that it remains the only New Orleans double eagle of any date meant that it was destined to bring a strong price. It sold for $276,000; not "crazy" money but still a heckuva lot for a common date New Orleans double eagle!

What's interesting to note right now is that any double eagle that is either finest known or well up in the Condition Census is destined to sell for a record price while some of the more classic rarities in the Liberty Head series might still be a bit soft.

5. Shipwreck Coins

No denomination of United States gold coinage has been more affected by shipwrecks/hoards than double eagles. The S.S. Brother Jonathan, S.S. Central America, and S.S. Republic hoards have added thousands of interesting Type One double eagles into the market.

For many years the supply of these coins far outstripped the demand. You couldn't wander through a coin show without tripping over a stack of 1857-S double eagles. (OK, a slight exaggeration but...)

As double eagles became more popular, the appeal of the shipwreck coins grew. There are now a number of retailers who actively sell these and the trend appears to be strongest for dates that have low "shipwreck populations."

Here's an example. Let's say you have an 1851 double eagle in AU58 from the S.S. Republic shipwreck. This coin could bring as much as $5,000 if it were put in an auction. The exact same coin without a shipwreck pedigree might bring $3,000 if it were extremely high end; $2,750 or so if it were just "average."

The shipwreck double eagles that seem to be in the greatest demand are the ones that appear infrequently. In other words, if you have a double eagle from the S.S. Central America that isn't a commonly seen issue (i.e., its not an 1857-S) then it is considered "scarce" by shipwreck collectors.

The entire shipwreck double eagle phenomenon is sort of a mixed blessing to me. I like the fact that these coins attract new collectors and I respect their history and pedigree. But I think many are cosmetically unappealing and I have a hard time justifying the premium that some of these coins are getting. Is a $3,000 double eagle worth $5,000 (or more) because its from a shipwreck? To me, no. But to a number of collectors the answer is clearly yes.

6. Tracking the Market by The 1856-O Specimen

Many collectors feel that the single most desirable Liberty Head double eagle is the unique Specimen-63 example of the 1856-O. The coin first surfaced in the late 1970's/early 1980's and it has bounced around quite a bit more than you'd think.

In Heritage 2002 FUN sale, the coin sold for $345,000. The owner held it for two years and then placed it in the Heritage June 2004 sale where it brought $542,800. It was purchased by an investor who, as I recall, had never purchased another Liberty Head double eagle before and he held it for five years, placing it in the Heritage May 2009 sale where it brought a record-smashing $1,437,500.

In just seven years, the price of this special coin has increased by nearly 5x. Given the fact that there are now numerous United States coins that have brought over $1 million at auction or via private treaty, I am not surprised at the value level of the 1856-O. I would have to think that if it appeared for sale again in the near future it would bring over $2 million.

7. Tracking the Middle Market

This article has been more focused on the upper end of the market than the lower and middle end and this is not representative of the $20 Lib market as there are a lot more transactions in the $2,500-5,000 range than in the rarefied air of six figure coins.

I make a strong two way market in Type One and Carson City double eagles in the $2,000-10,000 range and I find this area of the market to be quite strong. I have a few interesting observations to share.

I find the grading of these coins to generally be more consistent than on smaller denomination coins. That said, I still find inconsistencies. I love lustrous, unmarked "sliders" graded AU58, but see coins in 58 holders that range from terrific to terrible. In my experience, really nice AU58 coins with great eye appeal are now bringing at least 10-15% more than average quality coins and I think that this spread will increase in the future.

In the Type One series, there are certain dates that I literally couldn't keep in stock even if I had multiple examples. Collectors love the Civil War dates and the underrated Philadelphia issues from 1854 through 1859 have become very popular as well.

Carson City issues are collected both by date and as type coins. I find that the key issues like the 1878-CC, 1879-CC, 1885-CC, and 1891-CC are very popular in circulated grades and in Uncirculated as well. The more common dates (priced in the $2,500-5,000 range) are extremely easy for me to sell as long as they are attractive, lustrous coins with fewer-than-average bagmarks. Coins with CAC stickers are especially in demand amongst type collectors or collectors who, while not working on date sets, want to buy groups of four, five, or six different pieces to salt away.

8. In Conclusion: What does the Future Hold?

I think the future for collector-quality Liberty Head double eagles is as bright as for any other type of United States gold coin.

As gold continues to go up in value, more investors become aware of gold coins. For various reasons, more wind-up buying double eagles than any other type of numismatic "product" and due to good marketing, more of these will be steered toward Libs than towards Saints.

The beauty of the 20 Lib series is that, marketing aside, the coins themselves are very interesting. They were issued at a tumultuous time in US history and at significant mints such as Carson City, New Orleans, and San Francisco. And they come in a tremendous array of prices; you can buy $2,000 coins or you can buy $200,000 coins.

I think the more affordable $20 Libs have a really bright future; coins in the $2,000-5,000 range that are interesting, reasonably scarce and which contain nearly an ounce of gold are just about irresistible to collectors. The super high end coins will continue to shine as well; coins priced at $50,000 and up that are very rare or that represent the highest available quality for a specific issue.

The real question is what about the middle market? I could sell as many 1859-O double eagles as I could find in choice VF and EF grades and I'm sure I could sell the first, second, and third finest known(s) of this date. But what about the so-so quality AU50 and AU53 coins? How will those fare in the future? Check back in 2014 when I update this article and we'll see!

The State of the Dahlonega Market, 2011

I published the second edition of my book on Dahlonega gold coinage in 2003. A lot of time has passed since then and, as part of the upcoming third edition, I'm going to be including a chapter in the new work that is a sort of State of the Union of the Dahlonega market for 2011. As you are likely someone who is interested in these coins and who is a loyal follower of raregoldcoins.com I'd like to share my thoughts with you. 1. Major Collections Sold Since 2003

In the 1990's and early 2000's, it seemed that a major collection of Dahlonega gold was being sold every year or so. It was an incredibly fertile time for collectors and, in retrospect, I'm not certain that we knew just how good we had it.

Since 2003, the number of major collections of Dahlonega gold that have hit the market have dwindled. In early 2004, Heritage sold the Green Pond collection. This was a collection that I was primarily responsible for assembling, and a number of record prices were set when the coins were sold.

In April 2006, Heritage sold the gold dollar and quarter eagle portion of the famous Duke's Creek collection. Again, many record prices were set; a number of which stand to this day.

But with the exception of these two sales, the auction market for Dahlonega gold has been pretty bleak since 2003. Oh, sure, there have been great individual coins sold. And there have been sales with a few interesting coins here and there. But for the most part, the number of great collections that have hit the market since 2003 can be counted on one hand with a few fingers leftover.

2. Evaporation of Supply

The lack of great collections sold at auction is a nice segue to the second point: the overall lack of supply. I'm not talking about just finest known and Condition Census coins here; I'm talking coins across the board from Very Fine to Mint State.

There are a host of reasons why the supply of nice Dahlonega coins is lower now than I can ever remember. You'll notice that I said "nice." Before we go any further, I think its important to define the term "nice" when it comes to my perspective of Dahlonega coins; and coins in general.

I regard a nice coin as one with a pleasing, natural appearance. It may not necessarily be a coin that is truly "crusty" but it is a coin that I would regard as being above-average and likely to receive approval from CAC if it were sent to that service.

So why is the supply of nice coins so low right now? For a number of reasons. First of, there just aren't that many nice Dahlonega coins left. I feel that the number of coins that have been cleaned and processed in recent years is very substantial; probably more than we realize. So we are looking at a smaller pool of coins that are nice than ever before.

Also, we are looking at a collector base that has expanded and who tend not to sell the nice coins that they have. They are serious collectors, they like their coins and unless a better coin comes along they tend to hold their nice Dahlonega coins for the long term.

So what's in short supply? First and foremost are the keys. The really popular Dahlonega issues like 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles and 1856-D quarter eagles have become ultra hard to find. The same holds true with nice "collector quality" 1838-D half eagles, 1842-D Large Date half eagles, 1855-D quarter eagles and 1854-D threes.

3. Changes in Estimated Populations My population estimates from 2003 proved more accurate than when I estimated population back in the 1990's for my first Dahlonega book. But the numbers still seem low and I have raised them. Typically, an issue now has an overall population that is, in my estimation, 10-30% greater. I've come to the conclusion that "common date" Dahlonega gold coins are more common that I used to think.

The "bell curve" of grade distribution for Dahlonega gold has changed as well. This is, of course, due to a loosening of standards over time. Many issues now appear more common in AU grades than they do in EF but I believe that many slabbed AU50 and AU53 coins offer weak claims to an AU grade.

The number(s) of high grade Dahlonega pieces has stayed remarkably consistent since 2003. Part of this has to do with the fact that not many new Mint State Dahlonega coins have come onto the market since 2003. There have been some MS60 and MS61 coins that are clearly upgrades from AU58's past and other coins that have crossed-over from NGC to PCGS and vice-versa. But mostly I'd attribute this stability to good research by yours truly. High grade 1849-D quarter eagles are a lot easier to track than VF's and EF's, of course.

4. Date Collecting Remains Popular One of the things that interests me most about the Dahlonega market is that it is one of the last bastions of date collecting. Many other branch mint series have lost traction as far as collecting by dates goes and issues that formerly sold for premiums now may be regarded as little more than semi-generic issues. But this is not really the case with Dahlonega coins.

Why is this so? I'd have to say there are a few obvious reasons that spring to mind. The first is that this is a true collector market and collectors like to collect coins by date. The second is that there is a good deal of variation with Dahlonega coins on a yearly basis. In other words, an 1849-D gold dollar tends to look very different from an 1850-D dollar; unlike a Proof Seated half dollar that has a seemingly interchangeable appearance regardless of date. Finally--and perhaps most importantly--there are no gigantic "stoppers" in the Dahlonega series. Nothing is so rare or so overly expensive that it means the average collector can't aspire to complete a date set.

One of the nice things about collecting Dahlonega coins by date is that if you look at them in the popular collector grades (i.e., VF and EF) they are still reasonably affordable. Yes, I realize that an 1854-D $3 and an 1861-D $1 are expensive for the collector of average means. But when you are talking about a set where there are just a few issues north of $10,000 and most are well under $5,000, I would term these coins as affordable.

5. Prices Rise...And Fall Given what I perceive to be a strong market with good supply and demand numbers and an avid collector base, I'm actually surprised that Dahlonega coins are as affordable as they currently are. Let's pick three Dahlonega issues in reasonable grades and see how they have performed since 2003.

The first coin we'll look at is an 1849-D dollar in AU50. This issue is the Dahlonega equivalent of an 1881-S Morgan. It is plentiful, popular, and trades with comparative frequency.

A PCGS AU50 example sold for $2,530 as Heritage 10/10: 4569 and this seems to be a pretty fair current market value for a decent AU50 example. Going back to the Heritage May 2005 sale, a similarly graded 1849-D dollar brought $2,200. Not factoring in possible gradeflation of the AU50 from 2005, this is a pretty unimpressive return.

How about the same issue in higher grade? An NGC MS63 example brought $9,775 in the Heritage February 2010 sale as Lot 1363. In May 2004 an NGC MS63 sold for $9,200 as Lot 329 in the Bowers and Merena sale. Again, not a really glowing price appreciation.

Let's pick a better date issue for the quarter eagle series; say an 1854-D. Heritage 8/10: 3423, graded AU58 by PCGS, sold for $14,950. Back in May 2003, Superior sold a similarly graded example (also slabbed by PCGS) for $17,825.

Why have many Dahlonega gold coins actually dropped in value in the last few years? Let's use this question as a segue to bullet point #6 in this State of the Union address.

6. And What About Grading? When I wrote an overview of the Dahlonega market in the 2003 edition of my book, I was pretty vocal in my dislike for the gradeflation that had characterized higher quality issues in this area of the market. How has grading changed eight years later?

I don't think the grading services did any better grading Dahlonega coins between 2003 and 2008. Too many choice, original coins continued to be dipped, processed, and quite possibly ruined in an attempt to get the best possible grade.

With the establishment of CAC in 2008, the pendulum appears to have swung back towards rewarding originality. CAC-approved Dahlonega coins are liquid and they bring higher prices at auction than non-CAC coins; if only because they just seem to be nicer.

So where am I going with these comments? I think the Dahlonega gold market has been hurt by too many lower end, unoriginal coins in holders. Time and time again, I've seen a really low end AU58 sell at auction for a very cheap price and drag down values as a result.

Since 2003 (if not before), the Dahlonega market has become very two-tiered. There are price levels for the low-end and commercial quality coins and there are price levels for the choice, original coins. In my opinion, for many dates the premium should be 50% for choice coins but this just does not seem to be the case.

7. Certain Issues Remain Undervalued. I mentioned before that I think Dahlonega coins are, for the most part undervalued. I really do believe this to be the case, especially with coins in the $2,500-7,500 that have choice, original surfaces. But there are certain issues that I think remain particularly undervalued.

In the dollars, I continue to like the 1850-D and the 1857-D. Both are not priced at all that much more than common dates but are quite hard to find.

I have always felt that the quarter eagles from this mint were the most undervalued denomination. Nearly all Dahlonega quarter eagles in choice, original AU50 and better and undervalued.

In the half eagle series, the dates that I feel are the most undervalued include the 1846-D Normal Mintmark, 1848-D and 1857-D.

So there you have it: my State of the Union address for the Dahlonega gold market as of the Spring of 2011. This remains an area of the coin market that is near and dear to me, and one that I think is extremely fulfilling for collectors.

Liberty Head Half Eagles: A Guide for Collectors

Liberty Head half eagles were produced from 1839 until they were discontinued in 1908. This long-lived series is becoming popular with collectors who are attracted to these coins becuase of their history and rarity. This article is an attempt to make sense of the Liberty Head half eagle series for the beginning and intermediate collector. First, let's take a look at some of the historic background of the series and the half eagle denomination. This was one of the original denominations that was authorized by the Act of 1792 and it was one of three struck in gold, along with the quarter eagle ($2.50) and eagle ($10.00). The half eagle denomination was the workhorse of these three and the issues from 1795 to 1813 are far more available than the other gold coins of this era. The half eagles from 1814 through 1833 tend to be extremely rare due to large-scale meltings.

In 1839, the half eagle was redisgned by Christian Gobrecht. The design was modified in 1840 and experimented with through 1843. It stayed unchanged until 1866 when the motto IN GOD WE TRUST was added to the reverse. For most collectors, the following types of Liberty Head half eagle are included in their collection:

1. First Head; mintmark on obverse. (1839 only) 2. Second Head; mintmark on reverse. No Motto. (1840-1866) 3. Second Head; mintmark on reverse. With Motto. (1866-1908)

The Liberty Head half eagle series is unique in that it is the only United States gold type that was struck at seven mints. These are as follows: Philadelphia, Charlotte, Dahlonega, New Orleans, Carson City, San Francisco and Denver. A novel way to collect this series is to assemble a seven-mint set; this will be discussed later in his article.

I can think of at least seven different ways to collect Libeerty Head half eagles. If you are creative, there are probably more but for the sake of brevity, let's focus on these methods.

1. By Mint

Probably the most popular way to collect Liberty Head half eagles is by mint. To do so, a collector generally focuses on one (or two) of the seven mints that produced this series.

The most popular mint to specialize in is Dahlonega. The half eagles from this mint were produced from 1838 to 1861. There are no major rarities in the Dahlonega half eagle series and this is a set that can be completed in grades that range from Very Fine all the way to Uncirculated. One of the things that is interesting about this set is how affordable the coins are. If a collector wanted to put together a set of the twenty-four major issues in the VF-EF range, this could be done for around $70,000-90,000. A set that featured Finest Known and Condition Census coins could run well north of $500,000.

The second most popular mint to collect is Carson City. These were issued from 1870 to 1893. This set is impossible to complete in Uncirculated but it could be done in AU55 and better grades. A collector who had a more limited budget could acquire virtually every date in Fine to Very Fine grades and the more affordable later dates (i.e., those from the 1890's) can be found in higher grades at relatively nominal sums.

Probably the most difficult mint to complete a set from is San Francisco. Virtually every half eagle produced at this mint from 1854 to 1877 is very rare in high grades and most of these are either unknown or extremely rare in Uncirculated. There are very few collectors who specialize in San Francisco half eagles and there are a number of reasons for this. The set is long (coins were issued from 1854 through 1906), full of rarities and it contains coins that are numbingly common (most of the issues from 1879 onwards).

2. By Decade or By Year

An interesting way to collect Liberty Head half eagles is by decade. This type was produced during the 1840's, 1850's, 1860's, 1870's, 1880, 1890's and 1900's. A "by decade" set appeals to many collectors due to the fact that there is a broad range of coins issued.

In my opinion, the 1840's would be the most interesting decade to specialize in. There were four mints that produced half eagles during this decade: Philadelphia, Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans. Virtually all of the coins made during the 1840's are available in circulated grades but most are rare in Uncirculated. What I like about the coins from this decade, besides their historic association, is the fact that many are highly undervalued; moreso, I feel, than any other decade.

Another decade that is full of undervalued, overlooked coins is the 1870's. Nearly all of the coins struck between 1870 and 1876 are rare in all grades (there are a few exceptions such as the 1873) and most of the issues from this decade are very rare to extremely rare in Uncirculated.

An interesting half eagle set is a year set. This would include one example of every year in which Liberty half eagles were produced from 1839 through 1907. The beauty of this set is that in years in which there are rarities, there is always an affordable issue to lessen the cost. As an example, the mintmarked half eagles from 1861 (1861-C, 1861-D and 1861-S) are all scarce and in higher grades they are very expensive. But the 1861 Philadelphia half eagle is common and a very nice example can be obtained for around $1,000. There are only a few years in which all the issues are rare and these tend to be the ones (like 1863 and 1864) in which only a limited number of mints were striking half eagles.

3. By Type

I described the three major types of Liberty Head half eagles earlier in this article. For collectors who choose to focus on these three coins, there are are many options.

The initial type was made only in 1839, at the Philadelphia, Charlotte and Dahlonega mints. None of these issues is rare although the two mintmarked coins are highly sought-after and very expensive in Uncirculated. An 1839 Philadelphia half eagle is more obtainable and a really nice piece can be found for just a few thousand dollars.

The No Motto type, struck from 1840 through 1866 contains issues that run the gamut from common to very rare. Most No Motto half eagles (even the common dates) are very hard to locate in Uncirculated grades and there are very few single coins that exist in MS63 and above. For type purposes, it might make sense to look for a common Philadelphia coin from the 1840's or 1850's in AU58 to MS62. Again, a very nice coin can be obtained for just a few thousand dollars.

The With Motto type was made from 1866 until the end of this design in 1908. There are a number of very rare With Motto issues but most of the pieces struck after 1879 are common, even in the lower Uncirculated grades. For a type coin, I'd recommend a common date from the late 19th century in MS63 to MS65 grades. Depending on the date and grade, you're looking at an expenditure of just a few thousand dollars.

4. Rarities

There are a number of rarities in the Liberty Head half eagles but not nearly as many as in the earlier half eagles that immediately preced this type. First and foremost is the 1854-S of which there are just three known. None has been offered for sale since the Eliasberg coin back in 1982 and, I believe, that if one were to become available today, it could bring as much as $3-5 million.

There are other rare issues in this series but none approach the 1854-S. In the Philadelphia issues, the 1875 is by far the key issue. Only 200 business strikes were made and it is believed that around ten or so are known today. Despite this coin's extreme rarity, examples have traded in the low six figures. After the 1875, the next rarest Philadelphia half eagles are the 1887 (struck only as a Proof) and the 1863.

The aformentioned 1854-S is, obviously, the great rarity from San Francisco. After this, there is a steep drop-off in terms of rarity. The issues from 1859 through 1867 are all scarce in circulated grades and extremely rare in Uncirculated. By far the rarest of these is the 1864-S. In fact, a strong case can be made for this date being the rarest collectible half eagle of this type. Despite this fact, it is not out of the price range of most collectors.

None of the Charlotte or Dahlonega half eagles is a major rarity as far as the total number known to exist. The key Charlotte issues include the 1842-C Small Date, 1844-C, 1846-C and 1861-C while the hardest Dahlonega half eagles to acquire include the 1842-D Large Date and the 1861-D.

Switching focus to the New Orleans issues, the two hardest dates to acquire are the 1842-O and the 1847-O. Both of these are actually affordable in the EF40-AU50 range, scarce but not bdget-busting in the middle to higher AU grades and extremely rare in Uncirculated. The Carson City series contains a number of scarce dates such as the 1870-CC, 1872-CC, 1873-CC and 1878-CC. Again, these are pricey but obtainable in the AU grade range.

In summary, the only Liberty Head half eagle that will prove to be unobtainable is the 1854-S. The other rare dates can be found with patience.

5. Proofs

Proofs of this type are very collectible and range from exceedingly rare to rare-but-collectible.

A type collector might want to acquire one example each of a Proof No Motto and With Motto Liberty Head half eagle. The former is very rare. Proofs were not issued in any sort of quantity until 1859. The Proofs produced in the 1860's are all very rare but can be obtained with patience. For a nice PR63 to PR64 example, a collector is looking at an investmnt in the $40,000- $50,000 range.

The With Motto Proofs were produced continuously from 1875 through 1907 (none were made in 1908). The 1875 and the 1887 are two dates that sell for large premiums; the former due to the rarity of business strikes and the latter due to the fact that it was made only in the Proof format.

As far as I know there are very few--if any--collectors are currently specializing in a date run of Proof Liberty Head half eagles. This would be a challenging and exzpensive set but one that could be completed. It is one that also contains coins that are great values. As an example, the Proofs from the late 1860's and early 1870's are extremely rare (typically fewer than a dozen are known) yet they do not command significnat premiums in PR64 and PR65 over the more available issues from the 1880's and 1890's.

6. Varieties

If you are a collector who fancies varieties, there are more interesting ones present in the half eagles than any other Liberty Head series. These range from significant Redbook varieties to minor, little-known ones.

Some of the better known varieties include the 1840 Broad Mill and Narrow Mill, the 1842 Small Letters and Large Letters, the 1842-C Small Date and Large Date, the 1842-D Small Date and Large Date, the 1843-O Small Letters and Large Letters, the 1846 Small Date and Large Date and the 1846-D Normal Mintmark and D over D Mintmark. From 1850 onwards, there are fewer significant varieties.

There are only two confirmed ovedates in the series and neither is rare. The 1881/0 and the 1901/0-S are both quite affordable in circulated grades and can be located in the lower to middling Uncirculated grades without much effort or expense.

While I have done some fairly extensive research on the varieties of branch mint half eagles, there are probably a number waiting to be discovered. I think the most fertile area is probably the Philadelphia issues from the 1840's. This was an era in which countless blundered dates and other significant varities are already known on silver coins; it seems likely that others await discovery in the half eagle series.

If you are new to the series, one of the real questions you may have is how to price Liberty Head half eagles. For the more common issues this isn't very hard. You will find that many of he post-1880 issues from Philadelphia and San Francisco are regarded as "generics" and sell for little--if any--premium. Pricing the rarities is another story altogether.

If you decide to focus on the southern branch mint coins, you will quickly learn that locating original pieces (i.e., examples with attractive natural coloration) is very difficult. Surprisingly, the premium factor for original coins is often low; in many cases only 5-10% more than a bright, processed example. With many of the Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans pieces, these issues are available in great enough numbers that the collector shouldn't have to settle for a marginal quality coin.

Pricing very rare issues can be a challenge. There are some dates in the series that come on the market very infrequently and the last comparable trade at auction might have occured as long as three to five years ago.

I just mentioned using auction comparables and I think this is a point worthy of a quick discussion. To my way of thinking, seeing what other examples of a coin have been bringing at auction is probably the best way to determine a price for a coin that you have an interest in. Let's say, for example, that you are contemplating buying an 1847-O half eagle graded EF40. Let's say that the last three auction trades are $5,290, $6,350 and $5,750. This gives a clear indication that a decent quality coin is going to be worth around $6,000. How about if you were to go back another two years and you see that there are three more trades; one for $11,500, one for $3,450 and another for $5,750? In the case of the $11,500 sale, I would dismiss this as it probably represents a coin that at least two bidders thought would upgrade. And the cheap sale of $3,450 probably represents a problem coin or one that is extremely low end for the grade.

What are the best values in the Liberty Head half eagle series? That's a hard question to answer as I believe that the entire series is chock full of good value. If I had to focus on a few areas that were the most undervalued I'd suggest No Motto Philadelphia coins in AU58 to MS62 (most are priced in the $1,000-5,000 range and harder to find than one might expect), the New Orleans issues in AU50 and above and the low mintage Philadelphia issues from 1862 through 1877. But it's hard to name just a few areas and I'd honestly say that just about any pre-1900 half eagle that is choice and original is desirable to some extent.

The Liberty Head half eagle series has become more and more popular over the years as people become aware of the challenges it offers collectors. I doubt if its appeal will ever become really widespread due to its longevity and cost but I look for it to become even more collected in the coming years.

Are you interested in the Liberty Head half eagle series? Would you like to form a collection of these coins? Feel free to email me for more information at dwn@ont.com

Some of My Favorite Obscure United States Gold Coins: Part Two

The first part of this article, published at the end of December 2010, discussed some of my favorite little-known United States gold coins in the dollar, quarter eagle and three dollar denominations. In the second and final part of this series, I'm going to look at some of the more interesting half eagles, eagles and double eagles that I have seen or sold over the course of the last two decades as a specialist in United States gold coinage. One quick note. I received some comments about the first part of this series that asked why I didn't include Proofs or 20th century coins. While I like Proof gold, I am not often that impressed with it (there are exceptions, of course...) and a great business strike is a coin that is more likely to stay with me. The same goes for 20th century gold coins. I love the designs and respect the collectors but I can remember more than a handful of Ten Indians or Saints that have left decade-long impressions on my coin psyche.

1. Half Eagles

a) 1838-C, graded MS63 by PCGS. There are a number of Charlotte half eagles that are rarer than the 1838-C. But this is among the more difficult half eagles from this mint to locate in higher grades. In Uncirculated, it is exceedingly rare and this example, which first surfaced in the Stack's 1978 Bareford auction, is the only unequivocally Mint State piece of which I am aware.

I first saw this coin in the October 1989 Superior sale. I badly wanted to buy it but didn't have a client for it at the time. It sold for $48,400 which seemed like a lot of money for an 1838-C half eagle twenty+ years ago. It was purchased by dealer Andy Lustig who was never able to sell it and I think he had it in his stock for close to two years before he gave up and put it into the 8/91 Akers/Rarcoa sale where it went cheaply at $38,500. It was later acquired by Harry Bass via private treaty with yours truly playing a small supporting role. After Bass died, it was sold in October 1999 by Bowers and Merena auctions where it was purchased by the Pogue family for $86,250.

I love this coin for numerous reasons. Its easily the finest known example of the first Charlotte half eagle. Its the only Charlotte half eagle that employs the Classic Head design. Its amazingly choice for the issue. It is one of those coins that every time I think about it I say to myself "why didn't you buy that coin for yourself when it was cheap and only a handful of people appreciated it?"

b) 1847, graded MS66 by PCGS

This was an especially memorable coin for me because I think it was one of the most controversial gold coins I can remember viewing. The coin in question was a staggering 1847 with a virtually perfect obverse and a reverse with the Mother of all Copper Spots. I'm not talking a small copper spot; I'm talking a deep, dark multi-hued stain that covered most of the reverse. I recall sitting in the bar of the Baltimore Marriott hotel the night before the sale began, talking shop with other dealers. Some people loved the coin (I was one of them) but other people absolutely hated it; and this was before the era that all copper spots "had" to be removed in order for a coin to sell!

The coin wound up bringing $110,000 which I though was a staggering price considering the dissent it caused among bidders at the sale. It later graded MS66 at PCGS (I graded it "67 net 66" and figured the spot would lower the grade by a point which it did). Years later it appeared as ANR 11/04: 1804 where it brought $92,000; a poor return for a seven year hold. Seeing it again, I still loved the coin but thought that, for $100,000, I'd prefer a No Motto half eagle with a little less "character."

3. 1864-S, graded MS65 by PCGS. I've written about this coin before. It's among my favorite United States coins ever and its one of those special coins that combine extreme rarity with amazing aesthetics.

The 1864-S is the second rarest collectible Liberty Head half eagle, trailing only the 1875. There are around 25-35 known in all grades but most are well-worn and I know of just two or three in the AU grade range. And then there is this piece, which must have either been saved as an assay coin or somehow put away (on purpose or accidentally) by someone in San Francisco at the time of issue.

You have to see this coin in person to appreciate its beauty. Other than some weakness of strike on the stars it is nearly flawless and probably would grade a point or two higher by today's standards. Harry Bass bought it out of the Norweb I sale in October 1987 and it is originally from Kosoff's Melish collection sale in 1956. It brought $176,000 in 1999 which I thought was a good deal then and which seems amazingly cheap now.

2. Eagles

1) 1839 Type of 1840, graded MS64 by NGC. The span of years from 1995 to 2001 was unique in that a lot of really great old collections were taken to auction and sold. Unless something totally unsuspected happens, I can't imagine we'll ever see another five or six years with so many great coins in so many sales. For me, the Pittman sale was one of the most fun and challenging.

Pittman was like the Super Bowl of coin auctions. All the coins were raw (I doubt we'll ever see a huge sale like this again with raw coins...), the material was as fresh as could be imagined, every major player was involved and the terms were cash and carry, meaning that you had little margin for error.

There were so many great coins in the Pittman sales but this 1839 Type of 1840 eagle is one that I still remember. It sold for $143,000 to Greg Roberts and I was the underbidder. I didn't have a client in mind for the coin and I was actually going to put it away in my own collection. Now graded MS64 by NGC, the coin is staggeringly beautiful with amazing deep yellow-gold color, great surfaces and superb luster. I have always liked the design of this issue and have found it to be a rare coin in AU and higher grades. The Pittman coin appears to be the finest known and there are only three Uncirculated pieces that exist.

2) 1848-O, graded MS66 by PCGS. The James Stack sale, held by Stack's in October 1994, is one of those auctions that don't get mentioned much but it was, in my opinion, one of the premier numismatic events of the 1990's. It was a great collection, put together by a sophisticated collector and there were a number of really wonderful coins.

My favorite coin in the sale was Lot 1298 which was a monumental 1848-O eagle. Later graded MS66 by both NGC and PCGS, this coin is certainly one of the finest No Motto eagles known and it is far and away the finest New Orleans eagle of this type.

The 1848-O eagle was a coin that caused quite a commotion during lot viewing. It was what I call a "pass around" coin, meaning that the dealers viewing the sale on more than one occasion stopped viewing the lots while the coin was passed around from person to person with appropriate comments made at each stop.

At the Stack sale, it brought $154,000 which was a huge, huge price for a New Orleans eagle in 1994. It resurfaced in the 2003 ANA sale and was later seen in the inventory of a California dealer around 2009-2010.

3. 1899-O, graded MS68 by PCGS. One of the really great numismatics accomplishments of the modern era was the group of gold coins put together by Les Fox known as Amazing Gold Rarities. Using Dave Akers as his adviser, in a few short years, Fox gathered a really superb group of coins that he proposed to sell at Sotheby's or Christie's presented as great artworks. Great idea, yes? Except not great enough to get either Sotheby's or Christie's involved and the holdings wound-up in a more conventional Stack's auction held in October, 1988.

There were many great coins in this sale but, for some reason, the one that sticks with me nearly twenty-five years later is the 1899-O eagle that was first sold in the Eliasberg sale and which was obtained by John Clapp directly from the mint at the time of issue.

I haven't seen this coin since 1988 but I remember it being the single most perfect 19th century U.S. gold coin that I'd ever seen. It had virtually perfect surfaces, superb color and sensational frosty luster. It was later graded MS68 by PCGS and I would be curious to see it today and speculate how it would grade by current standards. Just as an FYI, it brought all of $39,600 in October 1988.

3. Double Eagles

a) 1861, graded MS67 by PCGS. The discovery of thousands of high quality Type One double eagles in the S.S. Central America probably had a bigger impact on this specific coin than on any other issue I can think of. For many years this coin was THE Type One double eagle and I still think it is the best single example of this type that is known. But that didn't keep it from becoming an obscurity.

As far as I know, this incredible Gem was first sold at auction in Rarcoa's session of Auction '90 where it brought a remarkable $170,750. A year later, in a much less robust market, it sold for just $68,750 (ouch!) in the Superior May 1991 auction. I seem to recall it bouncing around from dealer-to-dealer until it brought $96,800 as Lot 7947 in Heritage's 1995 ANA sale. The value of this coin increased through the late 1990's and by the turn of the century it was probably worth around what it had brought in Auction '90. But after the onslaught of Gem Type Ones from the SSCA shipwreck its value yo-yo'ed back to its May 1991 level.

I've still never seen a Type One that compares to this coin. Great luster, great color, great surfaces...it was a really spectacular coin and it's something that I would very much like to see again after being off the market for so long.

b) 1891, graded MS64 by NGC. This coin was one of many great double eagles that was sold in the Dallas Bank Collection auction in 2001. This is a sale (and a coin) that offers an extensive backstory for me.

The Dallas Bank collection was owned by Jeff Browning, a Texas oil man who had died young in the 1970's or 1980's. I had known about this collection since I moved to Dallas in 1983 and because of the fact that I never got to see it, despite it residing in a bank less than two miles from my house, it became my numismatic Loch Ness Monster. When it was finally announced that it was going to be sold at auction in New York by Sotheby's and Stack's in October 2001, I was very excited.

The trip to New York for this sale was nerve-wracking as it was my first time on a plane since the 9/11 attacks. I remember lots of soldiers at DFW with machine guns, incredibly tight security and a nervous feeling on the plane that's hard to describe unless you flew yourself at that time. New York was still reeling from the tragedy. There were fliers on the walls searching for missing people and when I went downtown with a fellow coin dealer to see the Trade Towers site, you could still smell the smoke and chemical odor. Chilling...

I thought the coins in the sale didn't all live up to their legend(s) but there were many I liked. The one I liked the most was an amazing 1891 double eagle that was later graded MS64 by NGC. It sold for $80,500. It came on the market again in January 2005 and Heritage sold it, this time in the aforementioned NGC holder, for $155,250.

What are the obscure rarities that stand out to you? I would love to hear from you and can be reached by email at dwn@ont.com or, you can leave a comment at the end of this article.

Some of My Favorite Obscure United States Gold Coins: Part One

One of the things about the Christmas/New Year's holidays is that they are a time of remembrance. If you are a coin dealer (and if you've been one for as long as I have...) this is a good time to sit around and get all nostalgic about interesting coins that you have seen or sold. I originally thought about writing an article that talked about the great U.S. gold coins that I have sold over the years. But the more I thought about it, the more it seemed like a disingenuous puff piece and I think one of the reasons that people like to read my web articles is that they are not simply written to extol the virtues of Douglas Winter Numismatics. So, what I've decided to do instead is to modify the article but keep the basic theme. I'm going to discuss three interesting coins from each denomination that are, in my opinion, extremely important but not necessarily that well known. A few are coins that I've handled but most aren't. And none are currently for sale or are likely for sale anytime in the near future.

I. Gold Dollars

a) 1849-C Open Wreath Gold Dollar, Graded AU58 by PCGS

This coin is important to me for a number of reasons. I sold it back in 1999 via private treaty to another dealer who then sold it to a collector who resides in the South. It is still in this collection and it is still in the same old green label holder that it has been in since 1997.

The 1849-C Open Wreath is the rarest gold dollar and it is, by far, the rarest coin from the Charlotte mint. There are five examples known. One has been graded higher than this coin (an NGC MS63PL that was sold by David Lawrence Rare Coin Auctions in July 2004 as Lot 1005 in the Richmond I sale; it brought $690,000) but I personally like this piece more on account of its superb original color and unmolested surfaces.

This coin was part of the North Georgia collection that I sold in 1999 in conjunction with Hancock and Harwell. Jack Hancock was a good friend of mine and he died far too young. Jack and I did alot of business together and had a lot of non-coin related fun at shows and at his house in Georgia. The aforementioned 1849-C Open Wreath gold dollar was the most expensive--and neatest--coin that the two of us ever handled together and whenever I think of this coin, I think of my buddy Jack.

b) 1863 PCGS MS68

I first saw this coin a number of years ago in David Akers' case at a show. Dave has owned it for a number of years and he likes to display it, from time to time. Its never really been for sale but its a coin that I find remarkable for a n umber of reasons.

The 1863 is one of the truly rare Philadelphia gold dollars. It has a much lower survival rate than the other Civil War issues and it is especially rare in Uncirculated. While a decent MS62 to MS64 trades from time to time (I sold a lovely NGC/CAC MS64 earlier in the year) Gems are extremely rare. But the Akers coin is just amazing. It is one of the finest business strike gold dollars of any date that I have seen with incredible luster and color and nearly perfect surfaces. The fact that it is really rare and really gorgeous makes it a very special coin.

c) 1875 PCGS MS65

This coin sold in the February 2010 Heritage sale as lot 1427. I had heard about it years ago but had never actually seen it. I wasn't disappointed. The coin is a total Gem with superb natural coloration atop gorgeous prooflike surfaces. It is housed in an older green label holder and would likely upgrade a point if it were resubmitted. The coin sold for $109,250 which I felt was extremely aggressive buy, as the old cliche goes, where are you going to find another one like this at any price?

The 1875 is a rarity in all grades with an original mintage of just 400 business strikes. When available, it tends to come in the AU range and I have never personally seen another Gem (and only a handful of nice Uncirculated coins).

This was another coin that, like the 1863 I mentioned above, neatly combined rarity, high grade and superb eye appeal in one neat package.

2) Quarter Eagles

a) 1842 PCGS MS62

The 1842 is among my favorite quarter eagles. It is a rare date in all grades. Only 2,823 were struck and most of the three to four dozen that exist are well worn. Which is why I think this coin, graded MS62 by PCGS and very choice for the grade by today's standards, is among the more interesting Liberty Head gold coins that I have ever handled.

I've actually owned this coin twice. I first bought it out of the Superior 9/99 auction where it brought $31,050. I sold it to a Nevada specialist who considered it one of the prizes of his quarter eagle collection. I purchased his entire collection from him in 2002 and then sold this coin to a Midwestern collector who has, without much fanfare, assembled the greatest set of quarter eagles ever assembled (and I'm proud to say that I've built essentially his whole set!)

I would love to have this coin in my case at a major show. I think it would be a great litmus test for dealers and collectors who fancy themselves experts on U.S. gold coins. If you are a true expert, you are going to swoon when you see a coin like this 1842; if you are a faux gold coin expert, you'll walk right on by and not even look twice.

b) 1842-C PCGS MS65

There are a small number of coins like this 1842-C quarter eagle: items that are not only spectacular from a condition standpoint but which are very rare as well. This 1842-C quarter eagle, which is best known to specialists as the Elrod coin (it was owned by the noted Charlotte gold expert Stanley Elrod from 1980 to around 1992) is not only the single best Charlotte quarter eagle of any date that I have seen. It is also the finest known 1842-C quarter eagle by a mile and it is one of just two or three examples of this date that exist in Uncirculated.

This coin last appeared for sale as Heritage 2/99: 6146 (as an NGC MS65; it was subsequently crossed into a PCGS MS65 holder) where it brought $90,850. I was the underbidder and this is one of the few expensive coins that I have ever bid on at auction with the total intention of buying it for myself and putting it away. Had I bought it I'm not sure I would have sold it yet and the current owner, a Southern connoisseur who does not specialize in branch mint gold, was smart enough to realize the significance of this coin.

c) 1864 NGC MS67

I have written about the Byrod Reed sale that was held by Spink's in October 1996. This is a sale that I'd love to be able to travel back in time to and spend about ten times more money than I actually did. Prices, at the time, seemed high but, in retrospect, they were dirt cheap. The most amazing thing about the coins in this sale where how fresh they were. You are talking about coins that had lain undisturbed since the 1870's or 1880's....ahhh, be still my heart.

There were numerous terrific coins in the Reed sale but the coin I remember most was the 1864 that was cataloged as "Gem Brilliant Uncirculated." It was by far the best example of this very rare date that I had ever seen (and there is still nothing even close). It later graded MS67 at NGC and sold for $132,000 in the auction.

I don't think this coin has traded in many years and I'm not certain where it is today. Whoever owns this coin has one of the really great Civil War rarities and it is a piece that I think might bring an extremely strong price if offered today.

3) Three Dollar Gold Pieces

a) 1854 PCGS MS68

You'll have to bear with me on this coin as I don't totally recall all the facts behind it. I do remember that the coin turned up at a small coin show in Dallas in the mid-1980's and I missed buying it by about five minutes, much to my chagrin. The coin was submitted to PCGS around 1987 and it graded MS67; back when MS67 meant , essentially, perfection.

Now here's where my memory is a bit murky. I think this coin was sold in the Superior January 1990 sale for $132,000 which, as you can guess, was an amazing price for a common date Three Dollar gold piece; still is, in fact. It was eventually sold to John Moores, the owner of the San Diego Padres, and it was in his incredible type collection that was sold by Sotheby's in November 1999 to raise money for Scripps Hospital. As with all the coins in this sale, it went very cheaply at $57,500. It finally resurfaced as Heritage 6/04: 6219, graded MS68 by PCGS, where it brought $112,215.

This is easily the finest business strike Three Dollar piece I've ever seen and it may be the best pre-Civil War gold coin I have seen as well. It has amazingly clean surfaces, glowing luster, a razor sharp and as much eye appeal as you could hope for. 1854 Threes come nice but, man, this coin is something special.

b) 1854-D PCGS MS62 This is not the most valuable Three Dollar gold piece (the 1870-S holds that honor) but it is clearly a coin that has very widespread appeal and would be considered desirable even by someone who owned no other examples of this denomination. This is a coin that is universally considered to be the finest known 1854-D and it resides in the incredible Great Lakes collection which is easily the finest set of business strike Three Dollar pieces ever assembled.

This coin last appeared for sale in the Superior January 1996 sale where it sold for a reasonable $72,600. It was later upgraded to MS62 by PCGS.

While it has been fifteen years since I've last seen this coin, I remember it well. It had superb color and surfaces and was well-made for the issue. At the time, it was the only 1854-D three that had ever been graded Uncircuclated by PCGS. Since then, PCGS has graded a few more in Uncirculated (as has NGC) but this is still the only example that I uncategorically regard as Mint State.

c) 1865 NGC MS67*

Its not so much the specific coin that I remember in this case; its more the collection and the thrill of the research that went with it.

This coin was one of the centerpieces of the wonderful Richard Jewell Collection of Three Dollar gold pieces. I assembled this collection with Rich from 2002 to 2004 and in the beginning of 2005, I was informed it was for sale. I decided to place it in the ANR March auction. As part of the agreement, it was decided that I would write a book about Threes with the Q. David Bowers.

Dave Bowers has been a hero of mine since I was a kid and the thought of working on a project with him was exciting, We had to race through the book due to time constraints but the day a finished Doug Winter/Dave Bowers book on Three Dollar gold pieces arrived at my office was one of the numismatic highlights of my career.

Part 2 of this article will cover half eagles, eagles and double eagles and it will be published on my website in around 30 days.

The Fab Five Type Three $20 Liberty Head Double Eagles

There are five ultra-low mintage Type Three Liberty Head double eagles that were produced for circulation during the 1880's and 1890's. These five issues have not necessarily received the attention that the so-called Fab Five late date St. Gaudens double eagles (the 1929, 1930-S, 1931, 1931-D and 1932) have but they are now popular with collectors and have risen dramatically in value over the last decade. The 1881, 1882, 1885, 1886 and 1891 double eagles have a combined mintage of just 5,911. There are a number of possible reasons as to why these issues were made in such limited quantities. The first is that the Philadelphia mint was primarily interested in making silver dollars in these years and a majority of their efforts went towards these coins. I don't find this plausible as mintage figures for other gold denominations during these years were high; as an example the mint made nearly four million eagles in 1881 alone. The second was that there was limited demand. This is certainly possible but it does not explain why mintage figures for double eagles during these years at the San Francisco mint tended to exceed one million per annum. Another reason is that the United States economy was slow or worse during most of these years.

In looking at these dates in terms of overall rarity (the total number known) and high grade rarity (rarity in AU50 and higher grades), I rank the Fab Five as follows:

I. Overall Rarity 1. 1882 2. 1881 3. 1886 4. 1891 5. 1885

II. High Grade Rarity

1. 1881 2. 1882 3. 1886 4. 1891 5. 1885

Let's take a look at each of these dates and discuss their overall and high grade rarity, Condition Census levels, the numbers graded by PCGS and NGC and record prices realized at auction.

I. 1881 Double Eagle

A total of 2,199 were struck of which an estimated three to four dozen exist today. There are none that I know of that grade lower than EF and around seven to ten are known in this grade range. The majority of the examples known are in the AU grades with around twenty-six to thirty-four accounted for.

I am aware of two in Uncirculated and they are as follows:

1. PCGS MS61. Heritage 4/09: 2762 ($120,750), ex Heritage 10/08: 3091 ($138,000), Heritage 1/07: 3203 ($138,000).

2. PCGS MS61. Heritage 6/04: 6363 ($57,500), probably ex Heritage 1997 ANA: 7843 ($29,325; where graded MS60 by PCGS).

The record auction price for this date is $138,000 which was set twice by the coin listed first in the Condition Census above. PCGS, as of December 2010, has graded 24 examples in all grades with just two in Uncirculated (both MS61). NGC has graded 19 in all grades with three in Uncirculated (an MS60 and two in MS61). I believe that the populations for AU coins are inflated by resubmissions. The 1881 is the rarest of the Fab Five is higher grades.

As I mentioned above, there are only two that I am aware of that grade Uncirculated. Of the two to three dozens AU that are known, most are lower end with heavy bagmarks and signs of circulation.

The 1881 is always found with below average surfaces and most have poor eye appeal as a result. Interestingly, despite this issue's low mintage figure, the luster is often frosty in texture; not the reflective prooflike finish that one might expect.

For many years, it was possible to purchase a very presentable EF to AU example in the $10,000-20,000 range. This is no longer the case, but it is still possible to buy an above-average 1881 double eagle for less than $60,000. I think this is incredible value, given the price levels of less rare (but more popular) Type I double eagles from New Orleans or better date CC double eagles.

II. 1882 Double Eagle

The 1882 is one of two business strike Liberty Head double eagles with an original mintage of less than 1,000 (the other is the 1885). It is the rarest of the Fab Five overall but I regard it as just a little less rare than the 1881 in high grades. To put the rarity of this date in perspective, it is rarer overall than the celebrated 1854-O and 1870-CC and comparable to the 1856-O.

There are either two or three known in Uncirculated and they are as follows:

NGC MS62. Sotheby's 10/01: 88 ($86,250), ex Dallas Bank Collection. It is likely that this coin was upgraded from a PCGS MS61 holder and may not have been removed from the PCGS population report.

PCGS MS61. There is a second coin graded MS61 by PCGS. It may be a second appearance of the Dallas Bank coin. PCGS MS60: Heritage 1/07: 3204.

The auction price record is $138,000 which was set by the PCGS MS60 coin listed above. The NGC MS62 would sell for more if it were to become available.

As of December 2010, PCGS had graded eighteen examples with seven in Extremely Fine, eight in About Uncirculated and three in Mint State. NGC had graded only tweleve with one in Extremely Fine, ten in About Uncirculated and one in Mint State. These figures are inflated, especially in AU grades.

Almost every example of this date that I have seen is very heavily abraded and has reflective surfaces which make the marks look even more pronounced. The 1882 is a true rarity in all grades and there are an estimated thirty to forty known. I think the grade distribution includes six to nine in Extremely Fine, twenty-two to twenty-eight in About Uncirculated and two to three in Uncirculated.

Prices for this date have risen considerably in the last few years as collectors have become aware of the real rarity of the 1882. A presentable example will cost in the area of $60,000-80,000 and a Condition Census piece might cost in excess of $100,000. In my opinion, this is still reasonable given the extreme rarity of this issue.

III. 1885 Double Eagle

The 1885 is the most curious of the Fab Five. It has a tiny mintage of 751 business strikes, the second lowest of this illustrious group. This coin is clearly very scarce but it is more available than one might expect and I regard it as the least rare of the Fab Five. It is also a date that has a slightly different grade distribution than, say, the 1882. The 1885 is more available in Uncirculated than the other four dates in this group and it is also seen in lower grades; showing that it did actually circulate to a degree.

I am aware of five Uncirculated examples which are as follows:

1. PCGS MS63. Bowers and Merena 2003 ANA: 4291 ($50,600)

2. NGC MS62. Heritage 6/08: 2332 ($103,500)

3. PCGS MS62. Heritage 6/08: 2333 ($86,250)

4. NGC MS61. Heritage 2007 FUN: 3738 ($63,250)

5. PCGS MS61. Heritage 10/09: 1754 ($57,500) As far as I am aware, these are all different coins. It is interesting to note that four of the five have appeared for sale within the last three years. These are not coins that are previously unknown. I believe that most--if not all--were coins that previously resided in About Uncirculated holders and were upgraded.

The current auction record for the 1885 double eagle is $103,500 which was set by Heritage 6/08: 2332. I am aware of at least one private treaty sale for a figure higher than this.

The eye appeal of this date tends to be better than the 1881, 1882 and 1886. It is a coin that is typically seen in About Uncirculated grades and with prooflike surfaces. Most are found with heavy marks but I know of a small number that are actually high end.

Aproximately sixty to eighty 1885 business strike double eagles are known. I can account for at least five in Uncirculated and feel that there may be a few more that qualify as such by today's standards. Around fifty to sixty exist in AU grades plus another six to ten in Extremely Fine and below.

The 1885 is the most affordable of the Fab Five. It is possible to buy a decent quality example in the $40,000-50,000 range. While I think this is an interesting and legitimately scarce coin, I don't think it is as good a value as the 1881, 1882 and 1886. That said, I would strongly advise purchasing an 1885 in AU55 or above at current price levels if the piece is choice and original.

IV. 1886 Double Eagle

A total of 1,000 business strikes were produced. I regard the 1886 as the third rarest overall of the Fab Five and the third rarest in high grades as well. I know of at least two that are Uncirculated. These are as follows:

1. PCGS MS63. Superior 10/92: 1612 ($45,100), ex Akers Auction '90: 1968 ($66,000).

2. PCGS MS61. Heritage 3/98: 6637 ($35,075), probably ex Stack's Miles sale.

A coin graded "MS65" appears on the NGC population but I would assume that this is a clerical error and that the coin does not exist.

The current auction record for a business strike 1886 double eagle is $86,623 which is held by a PCGS AU55 sold as Heritage 10/08: 3103. If an Uncirculated coin were to appear it would shatter this record with ease.

There are an estimated forty to fifty pieces known. I know of either two or three in Uncirculated as well as another two to three dozen in About Uncirculated and a dozen or so in Extremely Fine. The typical 1886 double eagle is a low end EF to AU that has heavily abraded surfaces and unappealing Prooflike luster. This date is exceedingly hard to find with good eye appeal and I can't recall the last piece I saw that was original and appealing.

An "entry level" example costs in the area of $60,000-70,000 and you can expect to spend closer to six figures (if not more) for a Condition Census level piece. I regard the 1886 as good value even at these current levels.

V. 1891 Double Eagle

The 1891 is the fourth most available of the Fab Five. There were only 1,390 business strikes made of which an estimated four to five dozen are known. I am aware of three of four Uncirculated, forty or so in About Uncirculated another ten to twelve in VF to EF grades.

The Uncirculated examples are as follows:

PCGS MS64 (this coin also appears in the NGC population as MS64): Heritage 1/05: 30540 ($155,250), ex Sotheby's 10/11: 111 ($80,500), Dallas Bank collection.

PCGS MS63: Heritage 1/10: 2267 ($138,000), ex Stack's 1/08: 9211 ($115,000).

PCGS MS 61: I do not know the pedigree of this coin.

The auction record for the 1891 double eagle is $155,250 set by the PCGS MS64 listed above. In my opinion, this is among the single most significant Type Three double eagles of any date. It is a magnificent coin that combines rarity and great appearance.

The 1891 double eagle is usually seen in th EF45 to AU55 range and it is characterized by deeply reflective prooflike surfaces. Most examples are heavily abraded although a few choice, clean examples are known.

Price levels on this date were reasonable for many years and I can remember selling nice AU examples for well under $20,000 at the beginning of this decade. Today, such a coin will cost double or triple this amount but I still believe that the 1891 is good value at current levels.

I'd like to thank my good friend Paul Nugget of Spectrum Numismatics for his input on the rarity rankings of these double eagles.

If you have an interest in the Fab Five and would like to discuss them in greater detail feel free to email me at dwn@ont.com

The DWN Rare Gold Coin Market Heat Index: 2010

As someone who is pretty attuned to the strengths and weaknesses of the rare gold coin market, I can accurately rate how well (or poorly) a specific series is performing. 2010 was an interesting year for gold coins. We saw tremendous price increases in gold bullion but many areas of the coin market were flat. In the first annual DWN Rare Gold Coin Market Heat Index (cue sizzling sound effect...), I am going to discuss the relative position(s) of the most commonly traded areas of the market. This totally non-scientific study is keyed to the following ratings, which go from 1 to 10:

1. This series is so cold you couldn't give the coins away 2-5: This series ranges from ice cold to moderate strength 6-9: This series ranges from strong to very strong 10: This series is en fuego

And without further ado, let's talk hot or cold gold...

I. Gold Dollars There is pretty solid overall collector support for gold dollars. While there do not appear to be many specialists working on complete sets, there are a number of collectors working on focused subsets; i.e., Dahlonega dollars, Civil War issues, etc. I would say that Type One branch mint dollars are probably the strongest overall segement of this market and the weakest is, clearly, high grade non-branch mint Type Two coins.

In the Type Three series, I am noticing some strength in very high quality Philadelphia issues from the 1870's and 1880's. In most cases, the coins that are the strongest are PCGS graded MS67 and better pieces with great eye appeal. The Charlotte and Dahlonega market is very bifurcated. Top quality original pieces in all grades are very strong while overgraded, non-original pieces are hard to sell even at a serious discount.

OVERALL RATING: 5. This denomination is collector-driven and reasonably strong as of the end of 2010. The coins showing the greatest demand include the very rare Dahlonega issues (1855-D, 1856-D and 1861-D), mintmarked Type Two coins in "collector grades" and Finest Known or high Condition Census Type Three issues graded by PCGS and approved by CAC.

II. Quarter Eagles This is perhaps the most mixed denomination in the entire U.S. gold oeuvre as the heat index ranges from borderline frigid to pretty toasty. Early quarter eagles are showing mixed collector support. These coins are still undervalued when compared to other early gold denominations but they are no longer "cheap." Some weak auction results for overgraded 1796 No Stars and 1808 quarter eagles have lowered Trends but nice examples of these two significant dates are still in demand. Collectors of early quarter eagles are looking for value. They want either very rare issues that are underpriced (such as the 1826/5 or the 1834) or coins that are choice and original.

The Classic Head series seems fairly weak right now with the exception of nice EF-AU grade branch mint pieces which are still popular.

The Liberty Head series is beginning to attract more collectors as people come to realize that there are many legitimately scarce coins from the 1840's, 1860's and 1870's available for $5,000 and less. Branch mint coins from this series have a good following. Dahlonega quarter eagles are very popular and easy to sell as long as they are decent quality (or better) for the grade. Charlotte and New Orleans issues are less popular. Unless these coins are very choice and original, they sell for discounts relative to Trends.

The Indian Head series remains cold although it shows more heat than at this time last year. Prices are inching up for certain issues. The key 1911-D still seems overvalued, even at the new lower level(s) that it has adjusted to.

OVERALL RATING: 4 1/2. Without the Indian Head series I would actually have ranked the quarter eagle denomination a 6 but the weakness of these coins (along with softness in the generic MS65/MS66 common date Liberty Head issues from 1898-1907) drag down the overall score by one to one-and-a-half points. The coins showing the greatest demand include the rarities (1841, 1854-S, 1863 and 1875 in higher grades) and the key issues from Dahlonega (especially the 1856-D). Also in demand are nice pre-1834 quarter eagles in AU55 and above that are choice, original and well-made. I'm noticing some subtle demand (demand-in-the making?) for affordable higher quality Philadelphia and San Francisco coins from the 1860's and 1870's. These have gone from ice cold to moderately strong in 2010.

III. Three Dollars

The Three Dollar gold denomination remained one of the least in-demand areas of the rare coin market in 2010. Despite a strong price increase in gold bullion, values for Uncirculated generic Threes dropped and, in the case of MS65 coins, they dropped fairly precipitously. There is some demand for the popular Civil War issues and exotic later date low-mintage issues occassionally breakout of the sell-for-a-discount box that they have resided in for the last few years.

There is a good supply of nice Threes on the market right now (and this is one of the few denominations that this is so) and a contrarian collector with alot of self-confidence could put together an outstanding collection in the next few years. I'm not certain what it will take to jumpstart this series but, at this time, the patient is on life support.

OVERALL RATING: 2. Three Dollar gold pieces are in the doldrums and they don't appear to have more than marginalized support. There are occasional bright spots in this market. Very rare, low mintage Proofs have brought strong prices at their infrequent auction apperances and any PCGS graded, CAC approved finest known branch mint issue has enough collecor support that it would bring a record price if available. Two iconic branch mint issues are showing mixed results. The 1854-O is weak now due to an oversupply of overgraded examples. The 1854-D is actually showing much more strength than a year or two ago and prices have risen for this popular coin in 2010. A Gem 1875, if available, would be in demand as well.

IV. Half Eagles

If I had to predict which U.S. gold coin is poised for the biggest potential gains in the next few years it would be the half eagle. There is alot of value to be had in this denomination (especially in the Liberty Head series) and I wouldn't be surpised to see a few ambitious collectors attempt to make a splash in this area.

Early half eagles are showing good demand, especially in the EF45 to MS62 range. Any pre-1813 half eagle that is graded by PCGS and NGC and is priced below $7,500 has eager buyers, as long as it is reasonably attractive. The 1795 half eagle has renewed demand after having dropped in price since its peak in late 2007/early 2008. Higher grade (MS63 and above) half eagles struck from 1800-1812 are steady to slightly up in value but the coins must be nice for the grade to sell for published levels. There have been almost no Fat Head half eagles (other than the usual array of 1813's) on the market in the last two or three years. These coins are generally off the market in tightly-held collections and I believe that if any fresh, mega-rare pieces were to become available in the next few months, they would sell for all-time highs.

The Classic Head market is fairly soft with the exception of the 1838-C and 1838-D which are extremely popular in all grades. It's been quite some time since I've seen a nice 1838-D for sale and a choice, original Uncirculated coin could bring alot of money in this market.

As I mentioned above, collectors are beginning to recognize the value inherent in the Liberty Head half eagle series. Nice Uncirculated coins from the 1840's and 1850's are very rare and in the case of the Philadelphia coins, they are affordable in grades up to and including MS63. Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles are strong as long as the coin(s) are nice for the grade with good surfaces and color. New Orleans half eagles of this era remain popular with collectors and the supply of higher grade examples (AU55 and above) seems to have suddenly dried-up. The rare date No Motto issues from San Francisco remain difficult to sell with a few exceptions; notably the very rare 1864-S. I would rate the No Motto market as strong and getting stronger.

The With Motto market is not as strong. Carson City half eagles seem to be less popular with advanced specialists than in the past and are selling for discounts unless they are exceptional. Better date Philadelphia and San Francisco issues are weak with the exception of the excessively rare 1875 (an AU55 example just sold for $143,750 in the November 2010 Bowers and Merena auction). Generic With Motto Liberty Head half eagles are weak with MS65 and MS66 coins having dropped in price during 2010.

The Indian Head half eagle series is showing a bit of strength in the better-date mintmarked issues from the 1910's. Common dates are weak and prices for MS65's have dropped significantly in the last year; enough to the point that I actually think they are a good value right now.

OVERALL RATING: 5. The half eagle market is solid but not spectacular. The "right" coin can sell for a record price (as witnesed by the AU55 1875 that I mentioned above) but there are enough overgraded, low-demand pieces selling for discounts at auction to keep the overall heat index factor at just a "5." I have had very good success selling early half eagles and No Motto Liberty Head half eagles in the $2,000-25,000 range this year. My gut instinct tells me that some of the overlooked rare dates from the 1855-1875 era could be seeing more demand in the coming years.

V. Eagles

For years, I've written that eagles were "the next big thing" and, for once, I was right. This denomination saw a number of record prices in 2010 and Liberty Head eagles led they way due to competition among a small but dedicated number of collectors at the top end of the market.

But not all was rosy in the World of Eagles. Early eagles saw weakness that continued from 2009. This is clearly the result of some truly gross coins in holders. I often see coins graded AU55, AU58, MS61 and even MS62 that are 100% unoriginal and lack any semblance of eye appeal. While pieces of this (low) quality still brought decent prices at auction in 2006-2008, the market has become more selective and now these coins sell for discounts. This has reduced values across the board but, suddenly, I like choice, original examples at 20-25% discounts off of previous market highs. I can't remember any properly graded MS64 or better early eagles selling in the last year and I think a CAC-approved example would still bring a very strong price.

The Liberty Head eagle series did really well in 2010 and this trend should continue for the foreseeable future. Any Finest Known or high Condition Census coins, regardless of date or mint, should do quite well. New Orleans eagles are popular and in demand and interesting high grade pieces (like the record-breaking 1842-O that brought over $70,000 this year at auction) will continue to bring high prices. I think a real value play in this area are common date Philadelphia No Motto coins from the 1840's and 1850's in choice AU to MS63 grades.

With Motto coins of this denomination saw sporadic levels of demand. Carson City eagles sputtered a bit but really high end, choice pieces were actively sought. If a very nice 1870-CC came on the market it would be a potential record-setter. New Orleans eagles were led by the 1883-O which, in a short period of time, has gone from hugely undervalued to hugely priced. Even the formerly undervalued 1880-O saw some love in higher grades. The semi-scarce Philadelphia and San Francisco issues from the 1880's and 1890's remained overlooked and these are undervalued. If the concept of the "short set" were ever applied to With Motto eagles, these dates could appreciate quite a bit.

Indian Head eagles were similar in performance to their half eagle counterparts. There was some interest in AU58 to MS63 better dates from the teens and the rare 1920-S and 1930-S saw slightly increased demand. Common dates in MS65 and above were weak. Proofs were weak unless the coins were PCGS graded and CAC approved. The few original Gem Indian Head eagles that sold in the last year brought very strong prices as collectors have come to realize how few of these coins remain with natural color and surfaces.

OVERALL RATING: 7 Based on the results of the Stack's Johnson-Blue auction this Fall, I might have rated this denomination a "9" but one extremely strong auction doesn't make for a blazing hot market. But that said, the demand for nice eagles has picked up quite a bit. Early eagles will continue to be soft unless the coins are "all there." I think Liberty Head eagles are a great example of what happens when a few collectors begin to compete for nice coins. As I have always said, it doesn't take dozens of new players in a market to drive prices up if the coins are genuinely scarce. I'd look for the middle end of the Liberty Head eagle market to show some appreciation this year as collectors who are priced out of the higher end coins look at pieces in the EF45 to AU55+ range. Quality and originality will remain a key factor in this area of the market.

VI. Double Eagles

If you follow the rare gold coin market just a little, itsy-bitsy bit you probably are aware that double eagles were the unquestioned darling of the market in 2010. I see no reason why this won't continue into 2011--and beyond.

Why are double eagles so popular right now? A combination of factors. Obviously, their size and intrinsic worth helps them. They have a great back story and the presence of shipwreck coins has brought hundreds of serious new buyers into the double eagle market. I also think that it helps that these coins are rare but no so much so that they are unpromotable. You can promote an 1870 quarter eagle in Mint State; there just aren't enough to go around. But most of the popular dates in the double eagle series exist in a large enough quantity that nearly everyone who wants one can have one. maybe not in the ultimate grade(s) but in close to optimal condition. And that's the beauty of this denomination, in a nutshell.

There wasn't a more popular series of coin in all of the numismatic market in 2010 than Type One Liberty Head double eagles. These coins were in demand in all grade and price levels. Even though values rose considerably, there are still at least fifteen to twenty different dates in the series that can be bought in Extremely Fine grades for $3,000 or less. This series did well in both the low end and high end although a few dates like the 1861-S Paquet and 1866-S No Motto are off their 2007/08 historic highs. New Orleans issues did nicely this year as did San Francisco coins. I think the best value play in this market are the Philadelphia coins struck from 1854 to 1860 in AU50 or better.

After a few years of softness, the Type Two market picked up quite a bit. The Philadelphia issues from 1866 to 1872 were popular and the Carson City coins were in strong demand. Speaking of Type Two CC double eagles, the 1870-CC remains a bit of an enigma. Clearly, its price level is off its high of a few years ago but no really nice examples came to the market in 2010. I'd be very curious to see what a high end PCGS AU50 or AU53 brought if available.

The Type Three market was a bit more spotty. The unquestioned leaders from a demand standpoint were the CC issues which are suddenly in very strong demand in all grades. The extremely rare low mintage Philadelphia dates (1881, 1882, 1885, 1886 and 1891) continued to sell for record prices when available. The weakest area were the condition rarity common and semi-scarce Philadelphia and San Francisco issues. But even these coins could occasionally hit a huge home run at auction if they were really choice for the grade, free of serious marks and had population of ten or less with fewer (or none) better.

The Saint Gaudens market did not fare as well. It seems like there are not enough new buyers to keep up with the supply of scarce and rare dates that were available in the last year and prices dropped accordingly. There were exceptions. PCGS graded, CAC examples of genuinely rare dates from the 1920's and early 1930's brought strong prices if the coins were graded spot-on. If they were marginal quality, they often sold at a strong discount. It was possible for a coin like a 1927-S in MS64 to have a value range of $50,000-60,000 for a low end coin and $75,000-85,000 for a high end one. The generic Saint market was, as always, like a numismatic yo-yo with lots of ups and downs. Premiums for MS63 to MS65 coins were high around the middle of the year but shrunk as the price of gold soared. MS66 and MS67 coins with CAC stickers were in strong demand and did well. It seems likely that they will continue to be in demand in the coming year.

OVERALL RATING: 8 1/2. If dated Saints had performed better in 2010, this number would clearly be a "9." Liberty Head double eagles were the top performer in the rare gold market in 2010. The areas that were in the greatest demand included rare Type One issues in all grades, "exotic" shipwreck coins (i.e., non-S mint Central America coins, PL and DMPL pieces, etc.), high end rare date Type Two coins, rare low mintage date Type Threes and virtually all Carson City pieces.

I'd like your comments and feedback about the 2010 Heat Index. Please feel free to send me an email at dwn@ont.com and let me know which areas of the dated gold market were the most sizzlin' in 2010 and which you think will be the hotties of 2011.