2008 Crystal Ball Survey - Part Two

In the second part of this series, I reveal my answers to the final question from the Rosen 2007-2008 Crystal Ball survey. There are some very interesting questions asked here and some controversial answers so read on for my insights into the current State of the Market. For the following six (6) questions I ask you for your Best Buy selections in a number of series. Please detail why you made your picks and the potential you see for them.

10. Your Best Buys for U.S. Type Coins.

a. Seated Dimes, Quarters and Half Dollars in Mint State-64 to Mint State-66. I think you will see significant appreciation in this area in the coming year or two. b. Barber Dimes, Quarter and Half Dollars in MS64 to MS66 and PR64 to PR66. They aren’t the most attractive coins in the world from the standpoint of design but they are very cheap right now. You can buy a pleasing MS65 Barber Dime for less than $500. c. Gem Trade Dollars. I just never seem to see true MS65 Trade Dollars. Current Bluesheet bid for MS65’s is something like $7,000. They are great deals at double to triple this price. d. Large Size Bust Dimes and Quarters in just about any grade from VF and up. For every one of these you see, there are about ten Bust Halves. If I were going to start collecting coins I think I’d do a date set of Large Size Bust Dimes and maybe expand it to include all of the Redbook varieties. Most of the dates can be bought in nice VF and EF for less than a few thousand dollars.

11. Your Best Buys for Gold Coins.

a. Any Charlotte or Dahlonega gold coin that hasn’t been scrubbed in EF and AU grades. There are fewer of these remaining than people realize. b. Better date $5 Indians and $10 Indians. In the former I really like the S mint dates in MS64 and MS65. In the latter I like virtually any P mint not dated 1911, 1926 or 1932 as well as the tough mintmarked dates in MS64 and MS65. c. Affordable Proof gold. I find that whenever I have an interesting piece of Proof gold in stock for less than $20,000 it sells quickly. d. Gem Matte Proof gold that hasn’t been conserved. Does any exist outside of museums or old-time collections? e. MS66 $2.50 Libs. Seems like they should have a greater premium over MS65’s than they currently do. This is a reflection of the fact that today’s 66’s are not much nicer than most 65’s. If grading tightens on this series, I think the 66’s have real upside.

12. Your Best Buys for Silver Dollars.

a. Semi-Key Morgan Dollars in MS65. I like dates like the 1898-S,1899-S and 1900-S. b. Rare date Peace Dollars in accurately graded MS65. If someone would ever take the time to write a really good collector guide to this series and promote them half as well as Morgans have been, these coins would really take off. They are a great value.

13. Your Best Buys for U.S. Commemoratives.

I’m not enthusiastic about any Commems but if I had to pick any, I’d stick with the issues from the 1910’s and 1920’s in MS66 with attractive light to medium color.

14. Your Best Buys for 20th century collector series.

a. Peace Dollars in MS65, as mentioned above. b. Non Full Head Standing Liberty Quarters. I don’t know this series very well but the non-FH’s seem cheap compared to the FH coins. c. Any Proof Barber coins which are decent looking and priced under $1,000. Good value!!

15. Your Best Buys for any other area of your choice.

a. One year type coins or coins with a good story. In the area of dated gold this entails issues like 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles, 1838-C&D quarter eagles and half eagles, 1839-C&D quarter eagles and half eagles, 1838 eagles, etc. As people move more towards type collecting within the dated series, we are seeing a huge premium paid for significant one-year type, first-year-of-issues, etc. b. Pretty coins that don’t command stratospheric premiums. I look through thousands of coins at every show at auction and am amazed at how few are pretty. If you can buy, say, an MS66 Barber Quarter with lovely color for a 10-15% premium over a dipped-out, mediocre example I think this is great value. c. Some ultra-rare coins are still good deals. I think the 1876-CC Twenty Cent Piece has the potential to be a $750,000-1,000,000 coin in the not-so-distant future. d. Proof Bust coins are still fair value, especially in the PR64 and PR65 grades. But beware of examples in slabs that are not Proofs. As a smart dealer recently told me, “if it doesn’t look like a Proof...it ain’t!” e. Colonials and Early Americana. This is an area that shouldn’t be tackled without an expert’s help but how can you not love coins like New Jersey or Connecticut Coppers in attractive middle grades for less than $1,000 per coin? I wouldn’t necessarily look at this area as an “investment” but I think it is one place where a comparatively small collecting budget can still go a long, long way.

16. The sheer scope and market value of Modern Coins has grown greatly over the years such that Classic U.S. coins are facing increasingly strong competition for collector interest. A) What does this mean for the future of the Classic Coin market?

There are always going to be collectors who prefer classic coins but I would expect that a sizable number of the new collectors who enter the market in the coming years will focus on moderns. Many younger collectors just don’t “get” classic coins and they vastly prefer modern issues. I’ve personally learned to accept this as a fact, just like I’ve come to accept the fact that there are at least two generations who barely know what a vinyl record is and who get all their music via MP3’s and online downloads.

B) What does it mean for the potential of the Modern Coin marketplace?

I think there are great opportunities for marketers and dealers in the modern coin market. It’s going to be interesting to see if this market is structured like the classic coin market or if it gets an entirely new structure. My guess is that there is some young guy out there who is going to become the Sean Fanning of the modern coin market—he’s going to develop the “killer app” that makes him a fortune and which revolutionizes the way modern coins are collected and bought/sold. I think collectors should be encouraged to specialize in whatever turns them on and if happens to be modern coins then more power to them!

17. Do you think rare coins are priced too cheap in relation to other investment areas? Compare to art, antiques, stocks, real estate, you name it.

As someone who is extremely interested in art, I find coins to be absurdly cheap. To be a serious player right now in an area like Contemporary Art, you are looking at spending $1 million++ for something that’s good but not great. I personally love 15th and 16th century Italian art but no matter how rich I was, I couldn’t buy any great works—they are essentially all in museums. But in the coin market you can buy museum quality rarities for $20,000. You need to remember, though, that there is one critical difference between art and coins. When you buy art, you hang it on the wall and impress your friends with your taste and high degree of sophistication. You can’t hang a coin on the wall and even if you could it’s way too small to make you the envy of your town’s Swanky People. I wouldn’t compare coins to real estate or stocks as that’s way too “apples to oranges” in context.

18. A) What one series strikes you as particularly undervalued?

There are lots of series I like but two that come to mind are Liberty Seated half dollars and New Orleans eagles. Both are big, both are relatively attractive from a design standpoint and both offer collectors an area where $5,000-10,000 will buy you something really special.

B) What dates and grades in that series make the most sense for an investor to buy?

In Seated half dollars, I like the No Motto New Orleans coins in MS63 and better, especially those with attractive light to medium natural color. The survival rate of these issues is very low and most are very rare in Uncirculated, despite being priced at less than $7,500 per coin for the most part. In New Orleans Liberty Eagles I like the No Motto coins in original, unprocessed AU and above and I like the With Motto coins in MS63 and better.

What is their upside potential?

I think many of the Seated half dollars that I mentioned above that currently trade for $5,000-7,500 could double within the next five years, especially if more people start collecting Seated half dollars by date. The good quality New Orleans eagles are already bringing well over CDN Bid when they sell at auction but the price reporting for these issues is about a year or two behind the actual market.

19. What are your one, two, or three most favorite coins in all of numismatics that you would qualify as "sleepers," very undervalued?

a. Truly original, accurately graded C&D mint gold coins in About Uncirculated. I wouldn’t be surprised if coins like this start bringing huge premiums over their scrubby counterparts in the near future. b. Just about any No Motto Seated quarter or half dollar in MS64 or better. Forget the original mintage figures of these coins as they are very rare. You can also forget the current pricing guides as they typically bring multiples of Bid or Trends at auction when they are offered for sale. c. Pre-1834 quarter eagles in nearly any grade. With the exception of the 1796 No Stars and the 1808, these are much undervalued. In fact, they are far rarer than early half eagles or eagles of this era but still sell at a discount because of their reasonably small size. Coins with unadulterated original surfaces are really hard to find! d. Proof Bust coinage. There have been very few Proof bust coins that have traded since the market started shooting upwards five+ years ago but, in my opinion, the few Proof bust coins that have sold have not brought nearly enough of a premium relative to their pre-2001 price levels. You can still buy a pretty nice Proof bust half dollar for under $50,000. That’s just too cheap for a coin as rare as this. e. Proof half cents and large cents from the 1830’s, 1840’s and early 1850’s. Here’s another area where many prices have been flat for the past decade or so. I love coins like Proof half cents from the 1840’s in PR64 Brown or PR64 Red and Brown for under $7,500. While I am not necessarily touting them as an investment, I think they are a terrific value.

20. A) Where are the young coin dealers? We remember hot-shot young turks of the past whose brilliant minds and trading skills were the envy of veteran dealers.

I think there are actually more people working in the coin business who are in their 20’s than most of us Old Dudes realize but very few of them standout as being the next Jason Carter or Ryan Carroll (the two best young coin dealers from the 1990’s and 2000’s, respectively). I think it’s very hard being a dealer in this day and age given the cost of starting a business and maintaining an inventory. When I started my own firm in 1984 I had less than $50,000 in capital. This wouldn’t get a young kid very far today. That said, this is a great business for young entrepreneurs. The typical successful coin dealer is now in his 40’s or 50’s and doesn’t want to work as hard as 10 or 20 years ago. There are a lot of A-level dealers who are going to retire or semi-retire in the next decade and I wonder who is going to take their place. If I had a 16 year old kid, I would certainly encourage him to take over my business as I start to wind things down in the next few years.

B) What's the future of being a coin dealer?

I anticipate that the coin dealer of the future is going to be valued more as a conduit of information or as a broker than anything else. I would expect that margins will continue to decrease. I think the days of the brick and mortar coin shop is just about history but I do expect there to be a continued need for highly competent, specialized dealers. I think you will also see a few mega-dealers emerge who become dominant forces in the market; as Heritage is currently on course to becoming right now (if they haven’t already done so...) I’m happy I’m not a young, struggling kid just coming up in the business although I see a lot more opportunity for mentorship and guidance than when I was coming up in the early 1980’s and things were A LOT more cut-throat.

2008 Crystal Ball Survey - Part One

For the last few years, I have been asked by Maurice Rosen, publisher of the excellent Rosen Numismatic Advisory newsletter, to be a contributor to his annual Crystal Ball survey. This feature, which generally has the participation of a half dozen or so very knowledgeable dealers, is an excellent way for me to analyze the coin market and the questions asked by Maurice are diverse and interesting. Here are my answers to the 2008/2009 RNA Crystal Ball Survey. Please note that due to the length of this article it will appear in two parts. 1. What's your outlook for the coin market in 2008/2009?

I think the market will be mostly strong in 2008 although I think we will see continued bifurcation as we have the last few years. By this I mean I think there will be great strength at the absolute upper end of the market and we will also see good demand for interesting lower priced coins but the middle market will continue to be weak; possibly more so than in 2007. I foresee some weakness in the economy in 2008 and I would imagine that because of the housing slowdown we will see fewer people throwing sizable amount of disposable income at things like coins. Really good coins, though, are going to do awfully well in the coming years. There just aren’t many of them around.

2. What areas of the market look to be the best performers in 2008/2009? Please state your reasons.

I think type coins will be a very strong performer in 2008, especially Seated and Barber coins in MS64 to MS67 and PR64 to PR67. Coins like this have been too cheap for too long and people have finally gotten wise to this. Early coins have gotten too expensive for most people (in higher grades) and the grading standards tend to be pretty atrocious in this area. I think a number of collectors are realizing that a smart place to be is in the Seated and Barber arena. You can still buy really nice coins that are 100+ years old for less than $5,000.

I expect that rarities and trophy coins will be extremely strong this year. I find it amazing that an 1804 $10 sold for $5 million dollars recently and I’ve got to think that $1 million dollar sales are going to be reasonably routine in 2008 and 2009.

I would expect that Proof Gold will do nicely in 2008 as will better date $5 Indians and $10 Indians.

In rare date and early gold, I think anything that is choice and original will be in demand this year. I am already noticing a large price spread between crusty coins and scrubbed coins and I think this will continue as originality becomes more and more in vogue in 2008. Here’s my advice for collectors and investors in 2008, 2009 and beyond. Buy coins that are interesting and which have good aesthetic appeal.  

3. What areas look to be the weakest? Again, please state why.

I would expect that silver commemoratives are going to stay very weak in 2008 unless some large marketing firm decides to promote them. They seem like great values right now but there are just too many of the little buggers around and unless you can count on selling thousands and thousands of coins, you can’t control the promotion.

I would have to think we will see some weakness in Registry Set coins that are perceived to be overvalued.

I also think that, with the exception of gold dollars, small-sized coins are not going to do well. As collectors get older and older, few people are able to see coins like Three Cent silvers and half dimes.

This is going to sound a little bit general but coins that are ugly are going to do poorly in 2008. No matter what the plastic says, if a coin is off quality, it will be hard to sell.

4. Since the 2001 lows, coin prices by some averages are up 20-50% but gold is up about 200%.

A) Have your clients expressed concerns about this?

How could they not express concern? While some areas of the market have done fabulously since 2001 (early type, early gold, rarities) many other areas have been extremely flat. In some cases, truly rare coins in relatively popular series are actually down in value since 2001, especially if you take out the gradeflation factor(s).

B) What do you tell them?

The truth. Which is, in my opinion, that as much as I love coins and the coin market in general, there are some problems that need to be cleaned up. These include accurate price reporting and the need for greater consistency among the grading services.

C) How do you see coins and gold performing from here on?

I think we’ll see gold break through the $1000 barrier but I’m not really sure where the short-term and medium-term caps are going to be. Perhaps $1250-1500-- after that, who really knows? I think price performance in the coin market is going to be selective. As I mentioned above, the market is becoming more and more bifurcated. I think there are going to be fewer collectors in the future but there will be more extremely rich people dabbling. If you buy the right coins and hold them long enough, you should do well. If you buy so-so or average quality coins you won’t do as well. Investors should learn to think like collectors and buy the sort of collector-quality coins (and, no, the expression “collector quality” does not mean 1901-S quarters in Fine) that have traditionally appreciated well over the course of time.

5. The U.S. Mint is the biggest coin dealer. Are they helping or hurting the coin market? Please explain in detail.

I can’t possibly imagine that it’s helping the coin market that hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on modern products that might (or might not...) be spent on rare coins. At least the Mint is now far more receptive to collectors than in the past and they seem to have extended the olive branch to the collecting community after years and years of disliking us.  

6. Coin grading has come a long way since PCGS started in 1986. A) What further advances are needed? B) How would they impact the market?

I’ve spoken with clients of mine who are involved in hedge funds or private equity groups and most of them won’t do a coin deal because the numbers are just too small. These guys are looking at doing $250 million+ deals (in many cases more than this) and a little $25 million to $50 million coin deal is just too small for them. That said, there is always the chance that a hedge fund guy who loves coins might do a fund as sort of a lark. But every time we’ve seen large funds in the coin market, the results have not been good.

If a fund were to be established, it needs to be run by someone like John Albanese who is very smart and very ethical. I assume that a fund run by someone like John would focus on really rare coins like Proof gold, early type (silver and gold), classic rarities and popular individual issues like High Reliefs, Pan-Pac Octagonal and Round $50’s, etc. This is essentially what the Ohio Fund was focusing on and I think they did a very good job in terms of buying coins and focusing on specific market areas.

7. A) How do you feel about the concept of "seals of approval" on graded coins?

I wish they weren’t needed but I think at this point in time they are a good idea—provided, of course, that the people involved with them are doing it for the right reasons.

B) What will the effects be of such slab labeling?

I think we are already seeing an effect. At least one of the services has become considerably more conservative in their grading in the past six to nine months.

8.Coin auctions: A) What's your best advice to consignors?

1. Don’t assume that auctions are always the best way to sell all coins.

2. Learn which firms sell which types of coins for the most money. As an example, I use one auction firm exclusively for any very low population 20th century coin I own as they get much better prices for these coins than anyone else. Conversely, I use another firm exclusively for more “sophisticated” coins as they do a better job describing them and their audience seems to be a bit more dialed in to these sorts of coins.

3. Don’t choose an auction firm solely based on their consignment rate. You get what you pay for.

4. The best times of the year to sell coins at auction are at FUN in January and at the ANA in July or August.

5. Hire an advisor to help you decide how to best market and sell your collection even if you think you know what you are doing. If you do it totally on your own the chances are good that you will leave money on the table.

B) What's your best advice to bidders?

1. Hire a well-qualified representative to bid for you at auction. It is the best 5% you will ever spend.

2. Never bid sight unseen on any coin at auction worth more than $1,000. And, no, you can’t accurately grade a coin based on images!

3. If you attend an auction in person, come prepared. Know what you what to bid on, what you want to spend and how much you are willing to stretch on any coin.

4. Sometimes the best auctions are the ones you don’t buy out of but which you learn from.  

9. Two sophisticated investors come to you to provide them a portfolio for a 5 to 10 year hold, one investing $25,000, the other $250,000.

A) How would you construct the portfolios?

$25,000 portfolio, as follows:

1. Stars Obverse Liberty Seated Dime, PCGS or NGC MS66, cost $4,000-5,000+. I think this has the potential to be a $7,500 coin.

2. No Motto Liberty Seated Quarter, PCGS or NGC MS65, cost $5,000-7,000+. If possible I would try to find a coin dated in the 1840’s and pay a premium of 20-40% for it. This could easily become a $10,000++ coin.

3. Barber Half Dollar, PCGS MS66, cost $4,000-5,000. I can see this coin becoming worth $7,500-10,000.

4. Liberty Quarter Eagle, PCGS or NGC PR65 Cameo, cost $12,500-15,000. I think this has the potential to become a $20,000 coin.

For the silver coins, I would try to buy very pretty originally toned pieces and for the Proof gold coin I’d try to find a coin that was not over-conserved.

$250,000 portfolio as follows:

1. A neat early copper coin, such as a 1793 half cent in AU or a nice Wreath cent or a pretty 1794 Cent with a good pedigree. I would avoid a Chain Cent as I think these are currently overpriced. I’d spend around $25,000 on this coin and I think it has the potential to double in the next five years.

2. A cool $25,000 early silver coin. It might be a really nice AU 1795 half dollar or a very pretty early dollar (preferably a 1796, 1797 or 1798).

3. A Large Size Bust Quarter in PCGS or NGC MS65. I’d be very selective when buying this coin and would hold out for a coin that had great original color, minimal friction on Liberty’s cheek and a good strike. I’d be willing to spend up to $25,000 on the right coin. This type could be worth $35,000-45,000 in a really hot market.

4. A great looking piece of early gold in the $25,000-35,000 range. I might look for a nice MS63 to MS64 Capped Bust Right half eagle or a Fat Head half eagle (1813, 1814, 1818 or 1820) in MS63. Again, I’d be ultra-selective and avoid a piece that has been processed. Although early gold has gone up a lot in price in the last five years, nice coins still have upside potential.

5. A small group (four to six coins) of Colonials priced in the $2,500-5,000 per coin range. I would use an expert in this area to be my guide and would shoot for coins that he thought were accurately graded and really attractive for the issue. This is a $10,000-20,000 investment that could double in the next decade.

6. A really neat New Orleans half eagle or eagle from the 1840’s worth $20,000-25,000 would be my next purchase. Having focused a significant amount of attention on these coins in the last few years, I know how incredibly rare they are and I think they are still wildly undervalued.

7. I’d finish the portfolio off with one or more of the following: a great piece of Proof gold from the 19th century, preferably in PR65 or higher and preferably with an original mintage figure of less than 50 coins; a few great No Motto Liberty Seated silver coins, preferably No Motto mintmarked coins in MS63 to MS65 with pleasing original color and a few neat collector coins—things like perfect EF Carson City half dollars or lovely original AU Bust halves. All of these areas still seem like good values to me and have excellent upside.

New Orleans Double Eagles: An Update

As double eagles are clearly the most popular and highest priced gold coins produced at the New Orleans mint, I thought it would be interesting to update each issue and see what has transpired since the publication of my book "Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint, 1838-1909" last year. Taken as a whole, the market for these issues remains extremely strong. There are clearly a number of wealthy collectors who are assembling sets and when the "stoppers" become available for sale, they inevitably bring record prices. It is interesting to note that virtually every date in this series has set a new auction price record since my book was published in 2006. It is also interesting to note that, despite the strength of this market, auctions are not flooded with interesting New Orleans double eagles. The supply/demand ratio for these coins seems to be working just fine.

1850-O A new auction record was set in December 2006 when Heritage sold an NGC MS60 for $49,444. In addition, an auction record was set for an AU58 when Heritage sold a PCGS graded example for $40,251 in June 2007 (interestingly, the exact same coin had brought $34,500 in Heritage’s May 2007 sale). These prices show that demand for high grade, choice 1850-O double eagles is currently very high and if a really nice Mint State piece were to become available, I think it would easily set a record price. I have noticed some price resistance for lower end 1850-O double eagles in the EF45 to AU55. Collectors realize that they can afford to be reasonably fussy when it comes to this date and if the surfaces of a specific example are heavily abraded, the coin will sell at a discount.

1851-O I set a record price for an 1851-O double eagle when I paid $48,875 for a beautiful PCGS MS62 in the Heritage 2006 ANA sale. Interestingly, this is the only high grade 1851-O that has traded publicly since the release of my book in 2006. Until a few years ago, I used to see fairly high grade (AU55 and above) examples of this date with some degree of regularity. This does not seem to be the case anymore which leads me to conclude that either this issue is scarcer than I once believed or that most of the better pieces are in tightly held collections. The 1851-O has a similar Trends value to the 1852-O in higher grade but I feel it should sell for a 10-20% premium.

1852-O I set another record price at Heritage’s 2006 ANA sale when I paid $48,875 for a choice PCGS MS62 1852-O double eagle. Another high quality coin (this piece was graded MS60 by NGC) realized a strong $34,500 in the Heritage October 2006 sale. For a point in time between 2005 and early 2007, it seemed that unattractive, overgraded AU55 and AU58 1852-O double eagles were everywhere. These were selling for levels up to $12,000-14,000 for 58’s which, if you ask me, is a lot of money for a not very nice and not very rare New Orleans double eagle. I believe that nice, accurately graded AU55 and AU58 examples are still scarce but they seem fully valued at current levels. In Uncirculated, the 1852-O is clearly a rare and very desirable coin.

1853-O If there is one New Orleans double eagle that needs a major adjustment in Trends, it is the 1853-O. Current Trends values are $2,000 in EF40, $2,500 in EF45 and $4,500 in AU50. These numbers were probably accurate in 2000-2002 but they are long out-of-date. In 2007, Heritage sold two EF45 1853-O double eagles in their auctions. The first was an NGC EF45 that brought $4,025 in August. The second was a PCGS EF45 that sold for $5,750 in February. Both were decent but neither were PQ or nice enough that they were purchased by dealers as potential "crackout" candidates. I would suggest that Trends be raised to at least $4,000 in EF40 and $6,000 in EF45. A new auction price record for this date was set in August 2006 when an NGC MS61 realized $34,626 in Heritage’s ANA sale. I personally think the 1853-O is a tougher coin in AU55 and higher grades than I once believed and I would not be surprised to see values continue to rise for this issue.

1854-O I’ve come to a pretty major revelation as far as the 1854-O goes. For many years I believed the 1854-O was actually the second rarest double eagle from New Orleans, both in terms of overall and high grade rarity. After carefully observing these two dates for the past few years I now believe that the 1854-O is very slightly rarer in terms of overall rarity and unquestionably scarcer in terms of its high grade rarity. In looking at auction records, it is interesting to note that since 2002, a total of ten 1854-O double eagles have sold in comparison to nine 1856-O double eagles. In this same period, I know of another three or four of each date that have sold via private treaty. I feel that my estimate of 25-35 known for the 1854-O may be a bit on the high side and that the total number known is possibly as low as 20 or coins. In higher grades (in this case AU50 and above) the 1854-O is clearly a rarer coin than the 1856-O. PCGS shows a total of nine coins in AU but only three grade AU55 with none better. I have seen the majority of the 1854-O’s graded AU50 by PCGS and almost all of them are underwhelming, to say the least. I know of only one relatively choice 1854-O (the Dallas Bank Collection coin now owned by a prominent Midwestern collector and graded AU58 by NGC) and only one or two others that, by my standards, grade AU55. (NOTE: I have never seen the NGC AU58 from the S.S. Republic so I do not feel qualified to comment on its quality).

A new auction price record was set for the 1854-O double eagle in August 2007 when a PCGS AU55 sold for $494,500.

1855-O Something odd has happened with this date in regards to its availability. As recently as a few years ago, 1855-O double eagles were seen fairly regularly in higher grades. In fact, at one point (around 2002?) I owned two very nice PCGS AU55’s at the same time and right after I had sold the second of these, I bought yet another. But in the last few years, the supply has almost totally dried up. Heritage’s auction archives shows a total of 17 having been sold since 2002 but I am certain this includes a number of re-offerings plus at least a few lower grade or problem coins. The strong demand for higher grade 1855-O double eagles was clearly seen a month ago when a PCGS AU55 brought $57,500 at auction which is a pretty impressive price when one considers that Trends is only $40,000. This amount is an all-time auction record and I think if a nice AU58 were to become available in the next few months it could bring close to six-figures.

1856-O As I mentioned above, I am now of the opinion that while very similar in overall rarity to the 1854-O, I think my original estimate of 20-30 remains accurate with the total number known probably somewhere in the low end of this range. In AU50 and better, the 1856-O is more available than the 1854-O and there are definitely a few more "nice" examples known than for the 1854-O.

In my book, I think I did a poor job of providing Condition Census information for the 1856-O and here is a listing of the best pieces of which I am currently aware:

1. Private collection, ex: Heritage 6/04: 6372 ($542,800). Graded SP63 by NGC. 2. Midwestern private collection. Graded AU58 by PCGS. Probably ex: Eliasberg: 889. PCGS shows a second coin having been graded AU58. I am reasonably certain that it is not coin #2 but am not aware of its pedigree. NGC also shows two coins graded AU58. One is listed below; the other is not listed as I am not yet certain which example it is. 3. New England collection, ex: Doug Winter 12/07. Graded AU55 by PCGS. 4. Arlington collection, ex: Heritage 7/05: 10399 ($431,250), Bowers and Merena 10/99: 1711 ($105,800; as PCGS AU53), Harry Bass collection. Graded AU55 by PCGS. There are two other coins listed as AU55 by PCGS. I am not certain that these exist but it is possible that coin #6 below may have crossed from an NGC holder to a PCGS holder. 5. Private collection, ex: Bowers and Merena 3/07: 5597 ($356,500; as PCGS AU53). Graded AU58 by NGC. 6. Heritage 7/02: 9472 ($132,250), ex: "Midwestern collection." Graded AU55 by NGC. One of the coins listed above may be the example from the Amon Carter collection listed in the first edition of my New Orleans book.

1857-O No new Condition Census quality examples of this date have turned up in the last two years. There have been a few nice AU55 and AU58s that have sold at auction and I can recall at least one MS60 coin trading privately. I have yet to see any of the Uncirculated coins from S. S. Republic and would be very interested to know how they compare to the non-salvaged high grade pieces that exist. In my opinion, Trends in lower grades needs to be raised significantly. The current listings show $2,500 for an EF40, $4,000 for an EF45 and $5,500 for an AU50. Given the fact that examples in these grades bring way over Trends when they are sold at auction, I would suggest that levels be raised to $5,000 in EF40, $7,000 in EF45 and $10,000 in AU50.

1858-O The all-time auction price record for this date was tied in February 2007 when an NGC MS61 sold for $50,600. This is the same amount that Bass III: 795 brought when it was sold back in May 2000. The difference in quality between these two coins is very significant, however, as the Bass piece is extremely choice. A fair number of nice AU55 and AU58 1858-O double eagles have been available in the last two years and these have brought nearly full Trends (or in some cases over this amount). In EF40 and EF45, Trends seems low ($3,500 and $4,500, respectively) and these values need to be increased.

1859-O The 1859-O has remained an extremely scarce coin in higher grades and the last two choice pieces that have sold at auction (an NGC 55 and a PCGS 55) brought $54,625 and $66,125, respectively. My guess is that the current auction record of $92,000 (set in January 2005 with the sale of a very high end PCGS AU58) will probably be broken within the next year or two; or whenever a Condition Census example becomes available. The certified populations of this date seem to have become somewhat inflated. PCGS shows a total of 42 graded but 26 of these (or almost 62%) are in the various AU grades. My guess is that both AU50 and AU53 populations are inflated plus these include some pieces that are enthusiastically graded. The NGC populations in the higher AU grades are, as expected, a disaster. The current census shows ten in AU55 and eleven in AU58. The less said about these figures, the better.

1860-O A new auction record was set in November 2007 when a PCGS AU58 sold for an astonishing $83,375. But as high as this price seems, when one considers that there are only four 1860-O double eagles graded AU58 by this service, you have to figure that the demand level for high grade 1860-O double eagles will continue to soar. Interestingly, in January 2004, Heritage sold another PCGS AU58; it brought $48,875. The finest known 1860-O remains the PCGS AU58 in a Midwestern collection that is ex: Eliasberg and Atwater. I hate to harp on NGC and their population figures, but here is another date where the current figures from this service are ridiculous. 16 coins graded AU58? I don’t think so...

1861-O The previous auction record of $37,375 has been broken no less than six times since the publication of my book. The current auction record is $51,750 set by Bowers and Merena in March 2007 for the sale of a coin graded AU55 by PCGS. Auction records for AU examples have been fairly plentiful in the past few years. I attribute this to a few factors. The first is that prices have raised enough that a few choice pieces have come out of hiding and onto the market. Secondly, a few of the AU53 to AU55 coins have bounced around from auction to auction; in some cases morphing from NGC to PCGS or upgrading. Finally, I believe that grading standards have loosened more for this particular date than probably any other New Orleans double eagle.

1879-O A very important newly discovered 1879-O was handled by myself and dealer John Dannreuther at the 2006 ANA. This coin was conservatively graded MS60 by NGC and it was notable for having lovely original color and surfaces as well as uncharacteristic satiny luster. It was sold to a New England collector. There are now four or five Uncirculated 1879-O double eagles known to me. Price levels for this date have skyrocketed in nearly all grades in the last few years. In the not-so-distant past, you could buy a decent VF 1879-O double eagle for $3,000-4,000, an EF40 for around $5,000 and a nice EF45 for $7,000 or so. Today, marginal quality VF’s are bringing $20,000-30,000 at auction while EF’s are now worth $30,000+.

New Orleans double eagles have become one of the more popular areas in the current coin market. They are also clearly one of the more challenging and expensive coins to collect. There are only thirteen issues in the series but virtually all of them are hard to find in higher grades and nearly all are expensive as well.

What does the future hold for this area of the market? I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices for marginal quality coins begin to drop as I find it hard to imagine that collectors will, for example, continue to pay $25,000 for a not especially attractive VF example of an 1879-O. But I would not be surprised to see prices continue to rise for the very rare issues (1854-O and 1856-O) and further price increases for the second-level rarities as well (1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O).

Reconnecting With Collecting

Even though I am a dealer who has a reputation as being very pro-collector, I hadn’t actually collected anything numismatic (with the exception of 19th century books and catalogs) for a number of years. Being a dealer and a collector simultaneously is very difficult and I certainly did not ever want to find myself in a situation where I was debating whether to sell a new purchase or to keep it for my collection. This changed around two years ago when I let myself get talked into collecting National Bank Notes. A dealer friend of mine had been an avid collector of Nationals from his home state for a number of years and his enthusiasm was contagious. I started to dabble and, before I knew it, I was hooked. Two years later, I am a confirmed Natty-holic.

So what have I learned in my reconnection with collecting and what sort of advice can I give to you, the collector? Following are a few ideas. Please note that although I am collecting paper money, I think the gist of what I am saying is applicable to coins as well.

Specialization Works For Me

I’m the sort of collector who would rather be very knowledgeable in a few areas than semi-knowledgeable in many. That’s why I decided to focus on just one specific state for my National Currency collection. I feel the same way about coins. I’ve written this a jillion times before but I am strong believer in the adage that being strongly focused as a collector makes you stronger at assembling a really great collection. Now, I don’t necessarily believe in being ultra-specialized. I could care less about varieties that are impossible to see without strong magnification and I am, in my own way, as much of a type collector within my specialization as I am a date collector. But every time I get bored and think that I should expand my collection to include another state or two, I realize that this is a bad idea and that I’d rather have a great specialized collection that a random group of interesting pieces.

Eye Appeal is Everything

If an object isn’t aesthetically appealing to me I don’t want it in my collection, no matter how rare it is. I’ve already been faced with situations where I have had the chance to purchase a very rare but very ugly note. In every one of these situations, I’ve chosen to pass on the note. Even though I plan on assembling a set that includes at least one piece from every town that issued notes, I am not yet in the mindset that I’ll buy something that’s ugly just because it is very rare. I would assume that, as my collection progresses, I will have to buy some pieces that are duds from the standpoint of appearance. But these will probably be among the last items I purchase and they will be made with a degree of regret. I have also reached the conclusion that, at this point in my collecting career, I would rather have a really pretty duplicate example of an interesting note (or coin) than a single example of a rare but unattractive issue.

Having an Expert In My Corner

While my level of expertise has clearly improved greatly since I’ve started my collection, I will be the first to admit that I am not yet an expert. While I think I have a pretty good eye, I am not yet sophisticated enough to detect very good alterations to notes. That’s why I’ve elected to have a really smart dealer be my representative at auctions. In my opinion, paying him 5% for his expertise is one of the best deals I can imagine. I’m certain he’s already saved me from myself at least a few times and he’s also encouraged me to be more aggressive on items that I should probably be buying but was figuring too cheaply. As a beginner, it’s really hard to collect without someone assisting you and I, for one, can heartily recommend establishing a good working relationship with one or two experts in your chosen specialization.

Older Is Better

In the field of paper money, you can neatly divide the body of all notes issued into two parts: large size and small size. When I first collected, I focused on small size notes. They were cheaper and more available. But as I looked at more notes and became more sophisticated, I gravitated towards large size notes. Using a very basic analogy, I came to see the division in notes as the equivalent of early coins (basically pre-1900) versus modern coins (post-1900). When I was a coin collector, I always preferred older coins and, in fact, never purchased any pieces struck after 1890. At this point in my collecting career I am willing to spend more money on older notes and to have fewer pieces in my collection. That said, I will buy small size notes but they have to have a very strong “coolness factor” for me to give them consideration.

Establishing a Comfort Zone

While I am very comfortable buying notes in the $500-5,000 range for my collection, I still do not feel comfortable enough to buy very expensive notes. A few months ago I was given the opportunity to purchase a small group of very rare (and expensive) notes that would have unquestionably taken my collection to the next level. But they were priced at levels that exceeded my comfort zone and I decided to pass on them. In retrospect, I wish that I had purchased at least one or two of them but, to be frank, I’m just not quite comfortable enough with my new collection to spend this amount of money. In another year or two, I probably will. And I think this is good advice for any collector. Establish a comfort zone for the first few years you collect and don’t exceed it until you feel that you are ready to do so.

Use the Best Resources Available to You

When I first started collecting coins as a child, information was hard to come by. You had to guess at how rare coins were and pricing was essentially a crapshoot. Today, there is a staggering amount of great information available to collectors in almost all areas. I quickly learned that for National bank notes, I had amazing resources available. To learn more about the notes, I bought Don Kelley’s incredible reference book. To get an idea of rarity, I purchased Kelley’s census information. And for pricing, I referred to the CAA/Heritage auction archives and Sandy Bashover’s Track and Price software. For coins, there is comparable—if not superior—price and rarity information available for nearly every series. In my opinion, the accessibility of this information has made collecting more fun than ever.

Make Some Collecting Friendships

Collecting tends to be a solitary pursuit but I’ve found that one of the real benefits from buying any sort of object is the friendships that you make in the pursuit phase. I have two close dealer friends who both happen to be collectors of National bank notes. Whenever a new auction catalog arrives in the mail, I know I can count on getting emails from both of my friends about the notes in the sale that they think I will be interested; just like I send them emails about the notes from their states that I think they will be bidding on. And after the sale is over, we inevitably compare our success from the sale. What’s really funny about this is that the three of us almost never talk about coins, even though we are all extremely successful in this arena. But when we meet up for dinner at a coin show, the talk inevitably turns to our collections. To me, this is an extremely satisfying part of collecting; maybe THE most, in fact.

Think Long Term

When I buy a note, I don’t worry about flipping it for a quick profit. I’m assembling my collection over the long term and hope to have at least fifteen to twenty years worth of effort into it before I even consider selling it. That’s not to say that I won’t at some time in the future analyze my holdings and make a decision to weed out the duplicates and the duds. But I’ve found that buying for the long term makes collecting alot more fun. I’m using funds that I don’t have to worry about for more pressing needs and I look at my collection as a long-term asset that is going to provide my family and I with some nice income when I’m old and no longer interested in it.

As I mentioned above, I’ve really enjoyed my foray back into collecting. I think it’s made me a better dealer and I’m looking forward to expanding my collections in the coming years. And who knows—maybe I’ll even start to buy coins again!

Early Eagles, 1795-1804: A Date by Date Analysis

Until the establishment of the double eagle in 1849, the Eagle (or Ten Dollar gold piece) was the highest denomination produced by the United States mint. These coins were struck from 1795 through 1804 but this denomination was discontinued until 1838 when the new Gobrecht Liberty Head design was introduced. Early Eagles have proven to be very popular with collectors over the years. These coins are big and beautiful and more available than the quarter eagles and half eagles produced during this time period. The dates from the 1790’s have proven to be especially popular and price levels have risen to record highs during the last few years.

Here is a date by date analysis of these coins which is written with the new collector in mind.

1795

All eagles produced from 1795 through the first part of 1797 are found with a Draped Bust obverse and a Small Eagle reverse. The 1795 has two major varieties. The more common of the two is seen with thirteen leaves on the reverse. The rarer of the two has nine leaves on the reverse. Generally, collectors focus on the more available 13 leaves but the 9 leaves is recognized by both PCGS and NGC. Advanced collectors generally include this variety in a date set of early eagles, even when they do not focus on other die varieties. (FYI, there are a total of five die varieties for this issue).

There were of 5,583 1795 eagles produced. It is believed that around 5,083 employed the 13 leaves reverse while the remainder used the 9 leaves reverse. There are an estimated 400-500 1795 eagles known, including around 15-20 of the 9 leaves coins. Most 1795 eagles grade in the VF to EF range. AU coins are scarce but available. Properly graded AU55 to 58 coins are very scarce and Uncirculated coins are rare although they are far more available than the 1796 or 1797 Small Eagle. Most of the Uncirculated pieces in the MS60 to MS62 range are not choice. Examples exist in MS63 and MS64 and I am aware of at least four of five Gems that have been graded MS65 or better by PCGS or NGC. The 9 leaves variety is usually seen in AU and appears to not have circulated much. There are probably six to eight Uncirculated examples with the finest grading MS63.

The 1795 tends to be the best struck and most aesthetically appealing of the Small Eagle ten dollar gold pieces. The typical example has some weakness on the obverse hair behind the ear and at the lower portion of the cap. The stars are sometimes flat at the centers and on many the denticles are flatly impressed. The reverse shows weakness on the eagle’s neck and head and the denticles are often flat with a partially beveled appearance. The surfaces often show numerous small marks and on many of the 9 leaves coins, there are mint-made die chips and/or planchet defects in the fields. The luster is often frosty with a somewhat grainy texture. Some are known with reflective prooflike surfaces and at least a few have fully prooflike fields on the obverse and reverse. The natural coloration tends to be a deep yellow-gold. Others are seen with orange-gold or greenish-gold hues. There are a number of higher grade 1795 eagles with superb color but these are becoming very hard to find as more and more are dipped. Most circulated 1795 eagles show processed surfaces and original, attractively toned pieces are rare and worth at least a 20% premium over a typical example. There are a good number of extant 1795 eagles with acceptable eye appeal. The collector who is seeking one is urged to be patient as most of the examples offered for sale at auction or at coin shows are low end for the grade.

An “entry level” 1795 eagle is now worth in the area of $40,000-50,000 and a nice, solidly graded AU will cost at least $50,000-70,000+. Expect to spend over $100,000 for a nice Uncirculated example and multiples of this for a piece that approaches Condition Census.  

1796

Because of the fact that it is not a first-year-of-issue coin like the 1795, the 1796 has long been less popular than its counterpart. Until recently, it was even priced at a lower level. But collectors have learned that this is a much rarer date, especially in higher grades, and it now commands a significant premium over the 1795.

The reported mintage figure for the 1796 eagle is 4,146. It is likely that 150 or so are known today with most grading EF45 to AU55. The 1796 is quite rare in the higher AU grades and it is extremely rare in Uncirculated. I believe that as few as four to six true Uncirculated pieces are known with the best grading MS63.

The 1796 is not as well struck or as well produced as the 1795. On the obverse of most 1796 eagles, there is weakness of strike at the center and the hair behind Liberty’s face tends to be very weak with little actual definition. The radial lines in the stars seldom show full detail but the denticles are more clearly defined than on the 1795 eagle. The reverse is slightly better struck than the obverse. The weakest areas tend to be the eagle’s head and neck. The wing feathers are often sharply defined and the denticles are clearly evident. The surfaces are usually heavily abraded and have a pebbly texture that is probably the result of poor preparation of the planchet. I have seen many 1796 eagles that had substantial planchet voids or other mint-made defects. Any example with choice, minimally marked surfaces is extremely rare. The luster tends to be prooflike and it is usually impaired as a result of improper handling or heavy circulation. The natural coloration is a deep orange-gold hue. Most 1796 eagles have been cleaned at one time and any piece with attractive natural color is very rare. The level of eye appeal for this date is well below average.

Until a few years ago, it was possible to buy a nice example of the 1796 eagle for a reasonable figure. Today, the collector can expect to spend at least $75,000-85,000 for a decent example and well over $100,000 for a choice piece. A nice, unquestionably Uncirculated 1796 eagle would probably sell for over $200,000 today were it to become available.  

1797 Small Eagle

Two distinct types of eagles exist from this year: the Small Eagle and the Heraldic Eagle. This is the only early eagle in which two types exist for one year and this makes the Small Eagle issues popular with type and date collectors.

The mintage figure for this issue is reported to be 3,615 but I believe that the actual number is lower. There are an estimated four to five dozen known with most in the EF45 to AU55 range. In Uncirculated, the 1797 Small Eagle is an exceptionally rare coin with probably no more than four or five pieces known. NGC has graded one in MS63 while PCGS has graded an MS62; none are better at either service.

The quality of strike seen on the 1797 Small Eagle is generally better than that found on the 1796. The 1797 has some flatness at the central obverse and on the radial lines of the stars; the reverse is usually much sharper than the obverse with very good detail seen at the center and border. On most, there is an obverse die crack from the final star up towards Liberty’s throat. The surfaces are often hairlined or abraded and many I have seen show mint-made adjustment marks. The luster is much different in texture than the 1796 with a dull, slightly reflective finish that is sometimes a bit frosty. The natural coloration seen on the 1797 Small Eagle is a light to medium greenish-gold. Very few exist that have not been cleaned or processed and original pieces are worth a considerable premium. The eye appeal for this date is generally below average and choice, attractive pieces are usually only offered for sale when important specialized collections of early gold become available.

Collectors who budget less than $100,000 for an example of this variety will probably not be able to purchase a 1797 Small Eagle. A nice AU coin will cost $125,000-150,000+ and a solid Uncirculated, if available, will run over $200,000.

1797 Large Eagle

The Heraldic Eagle reverse was added to United States gold coins in 1797. The 1797 Large Eagle is by far the more available of the types of eagles produced this year. Of the 10,940 struck, there are probably in the area of 300-400 known.

Unlike the 1795-1797 Small Eagle coins, the 1797 Large Eagle appears to have actually seen some circulation and pieces can be found in grades as low as Fine to Very Fine. Most are in the EF40 to AU55 range and examples can sometimes be found in the lower Uncirculated grades. But this issue becomes very rare in MS62 and it is excessively rare above this. NGC has graded a single coin in MS64 but the best I have personally seen is an MS63 and only two or three are known which grade as such.

The quality of strike is extremely distinctive for this issue. On the typical coin, the obverse appears to be much weaker than the reverse. I have seen pieces which, for example, have EF45 detail on the obverse but the appearance of AU55 or better on the reverse. The obverse is usually weak at the center with little definition seen on the hair strands. The denticles are also very weak and on some pieces they are lacking from 2:00 to 7:00. The reverse is much better struck with good detail seen on the eagle’s wings and on the shield. The surfaces are usually very heavily abraded and, for some reason, the obverse fields on many examples show roughness. The luster tends to be excellent with a range of textures seen. Many are very frosty but I have seen a few that were almost fully prooflike. The natural color is a deep yellow-gold and this can be exceptionally attractive on uncleaned, original higher grade pieces. The eye appeal ranges from well below average to above average. It is possible to locate a very nice 1797 Large Eagle ten dollar gold piece but collectors have come to realize that choice, higher grade pieces are much harder to find than once believed.

Until a few years ago, the 1797 Heraldic Eagle sold for about the same price as the more common 1799. But prices have risen dramatically for the 1797 in recent years and, today, an EF example sells for around $30,000 while AU coins range from $40,000 to $60,000 depending on their quality. For a nice Uncirculated piece, expect to spend at least $75,000-100,000 and possibly alot more depending on the coin’s eye appeal and originality.  

1798/7 13 Stars Arranged 9 Left, 4 Right

Two varieties of 1798 eagle are known. Both are quite rare but the 1798/7 Stars 9+4 is clearly the more available of the two. The mintage figure for this variety has long been reported to be 900 coins but a number of experts believe that this figure is too low. I personally think the right number is more in the area of 1,500. I feel that there are around 60-80 pieces known with most in the EF50 to AU55 range. Properly graded AU58’s are quite rare and this variety is very rare in Uncirculated with perhaps as many as five or six known. The highest graded examples are a single MS63 at NGC and an MS62 at PCGS.

This is another early Eagle that has a very distinctive appearance due to its strike. The obverse is always weaker than the reverse and it tends to show weak peripheral detail from 2:00 to 5:00. The left side of the obverse is always sharper than the right and most examples have a thin but easily visible obverse die crack from the L in LIBERTY into the cap. The reverse is better struck although the left wing tends to have weakness. The surfaces on nearly all known examples are noticeably abraded and many show hairlines from past cleanings. It is also common to see 1798/7 9+4 eagles with heavy adjustment marks. The luster tends to be subdued with a slightly reflective appearance. The natural color is a medium green-gold with orange hues sometimes seen as well. I cannot recall having seen more than a small handful that had original, attractive color. This is a very rare coin with good eye appeal and most examples that are offered for sale are low end and/or overgraded.

The 1798/7 Stars 9+4 is one of the scarcer early eagles although its availability is actually a bit greater than sometimes stated. You can expect to spend at least $75,000-85,000 for an average quality example and over $100,000 for a solid, high end AU. If available, an Uncirculated piece will cost at least $200,000 and possibly much more for one of the finest known.

1798/7 13 Stars Arranged 7 Left, 6 Right

The second variety of eagle struck in 1798 is the rarest early eagle (not including, of course, the 1795 9 leaves). The mintage is reportedly 842 but I think this is on the high side and the actual number is more likely in the area of 500-600. There are only 20-25 pieces known and, surprisingly, most are in the AU grade range. I am aware of just two or three Uncirculated examples with the finest of these being a coin graded MS62 by PCGS.

The 1798/7 Stars 7+6 is a better produced variety than its 9+4 counterpart. The obverse shows good detail although the center has a slightly sunken appearance which can cause some weakness on the hair behind Liberty’s ear. Many of the stars have full radial lines and the denticles are long and fully formed. Many have a number of obverse die cracks including one through the E in LIBERTY and another at the left side of star seven. The surfaces on most examples have small mint-made flaws including chips and voids. These are seen most often in the obverse fields and the reverse tends to be better produced. The luster is slightly dull and grainy in texture. The majority of 1798/7 Stars 7+6 eagles have been cleaned at one time and, as a result, it is nearly impossible to locate an example with good luster and nice overall eye appeal.

This is a very rare coin in any grade and an issue that is generally only made available when major collections are sold at auction or via private treaty. The 1798/7 Stars 7+6 is clearly the key date in the early Eagle series. Plan on spending at least $200,000-250,000 for an average quality specimen and considerably more than this for one that approaches Condition Census.  

1799

I regard the 1799 as the “High Relief of Early Gold.” In other words, it is common and probably somewhat overvalued but since it is a big beautiful coin (and it has the magic 1790’s date) it will always be in great demand.

37,449 examples were struck and I estimate that as many as 750-1,000 are known today. The 1799 eagle can be found in a wide variety of grades. It is plentiful in EF and AU and not especially rare in the lower Uncirculated grades. It becomes scarce in MS63 and it is rare in MS64. Gems are extremely rare with maybe as few as five or six known.

1799 eagles can be found with sharp strikes. Most are seen with some weakness on the hair strands below Liberty’s cap and at the center of the reverse but it is possible with some patience to find an example that is sharp. The surfaces on most examples show signs of mishandling and some pieces have mint-made adjustment marks. It is possible to locate a piece with choice surfaces but this can be challenging. The luster on this issue is excellent and it is better than on any other dates of this type. High grade examples are often richly frosty. A smaller number are known with semi-reflective or even fully reflective fields but I personally prefer the coins with a frosty appearance. The natural coloration ranges from an intense yellow-gold to a deeper greenish-gold or even orange-gold. It has become hard to find 1799 eagles with original color and examples with good eye appeal are worth a premium.

There are no less than ten different die varieties known for this date. Some collectors divide 1799 eagles into two collectible varieties: Small Stars and Large Stars. The former is the scarcer of the two although it does not generally command much of a premium.

For the type collector, the 1799 is a perfect selection as it is probably the most available early eagle and it comes with a nice appearance. Expect to spend at least $25,000-30,000 for a decent quality piece and $40,000-50,000+ for a solid Uncirculated example.

1800

The mintage figure for this date is reported to be 5,999 coins but this almost certainly includes examples dated 1801. The actual number of eagles struck in 1800 is probably more in the area of 7,500-10,000 coins. There are an estimated 225-325 known with most in the EF45 to AU55 range. The 1800 eagle is very scarce in the lower Uncirculated grades and it becomes quite rare in MS62. It is very rare in MS63 and extremely rare in MS64. PCGS has never graded a coin MS65 while NGC has graded just one at this level.

The quality of strike seen on the 1800 eagle varies. Some are found with reasonably good strikes while others are fairly weak at the centers, especially on the obverse. On most pieces, the obverse stars are flat at the centers and show incomplete radial lines. The reverse is usually better detailed. The surfaces on nearly all pieces show numerous abrasions and many have mint-made planchet imperfections which are frequently seen in the obverse fields. The luster is excellent with higher grade, original pieces having a rich, frosty texture that can be among the best seen on any early eagle. The natural coloration ranges from reddish-gold to yellow-gold and very few examples remain that have not been cleaned or dipped. The eye appeal for this date is generally below average. There are a few higher grade pieces that are visually stunning (the Pittman coin comes to mind) but most seen in today’s market are mediocre at best.

The 1800 generally sells for a 15-20% premium over a common date like a 1799 or an 1801 and this seems to be about right given its overall scarcity. A nice AU example will cost in the $35,000-40,000+ range while Uncirculated pieces range in price from $50,000 to well over $100,000.  

1801

The reported mintage figure for this date (44,344) includes coins dated 1800 (see above). The 1801 is the most common early eagle with as many as 750-1000 known including low grade and damaged pieces. The 1801 is common in circulated grades and it can be found in MS60 to MS62 without a great deal of difficulty. It is scarce in MS63 and rare in properly graded MS64. Gems are extremely rare. PCGS has graded three in MS65 and none better while NGC has graded just a single coin in MS65 and none better.

This is generally a well struck coin with some of the best detail seen on any date of this type. The obverse is usually very sharp with the center well defined; the reverse is also sharp although most have some weakness in the wings. Many examples have a number of mint-made vertical spines in the cap and show die clashes as well. The surfaces are typically abraded but are better produced than the 1799 and 1800. Examples exist which are comparably clean and free of marks and these are very scarce. I have seen a number of 1801 eagles that had prominent adjustment marks. The luster is not as good as on the 1799 but it is still among the best seen on any early eagle. It is most often frosty in texture. The natural coloration is usually green-gold or a bright yellow-gold. Locating uncleaned, original 1801 eagles is, as one might expect, very difficult and such coins command a premium versus the typical overdipped, processed piece.

The 1801 is comparable in overall rarity to the 1799 but, in my experience, it is a bit more scarce in MS63 and higher grades. It is less popular than the 1799 as it lacks the magical 1790’s date and it is priced a bit lower in certain cases. A nice AU example will run in the $30,000-40,000 range while Uncirculated pieces will cost $45,000 and up.

1803

After a one-year hiatus, production of eagles resumed in 1803. During this year, the reported mintage was 15,017 but it was believed that some of this figure includes coins dated 1804. There are an estimated 400-500 examples known and this date, while regarded as fairly common, is clearly scarcer than the 1799 or 1801.

There are a total of six die varieties and this includes three interesting naked eye varieties. The most common has small stars on the reverse. Another variety has 13 large stars on the reverse. The rarest and most unusual variety has a tiny fourteenth star punched on the reverse which is hidden in the cloud below F in OF. This is one of the most interesting and enigmatic varieties in the entire early eagle series.

The quality of strike of this date depends on the die variety. Certain examples are quite weak on the base of Liberty’s neck and the lower right stars on the obverse. Others are sharper in these areas but show weakness at the centers. The surfaces on most 1803 eagles are very heavily abraded and many display pronounced adjustment marks. It is very hard to locate a coin with choice surfaces. The luster is typically below average as well with many showing a grainy, slightly dull texture. The natural color ranges from green-gold to a more reddish hue. It is hard to find an 1803 eagle with good eye appeal, especially the Large Reverse Stars.

The Large Reverse Stars and 14 Reverse Stars are both recognized by PCGS and NGC and they command a strong premium over the more common Small Reverse Stars. It is still possible to cherrypick the 14 Stars variety although most collectors and dealers now know to closely check the reverse.  

1804

This represents the final year during which early eagles were struck. After 1804, the denomination was discontinued and not resurrected until 1838. The mintage figure for this issue is reported to be 3,757 but I believe this includes coins dated 1803 and that the actual number struck is more in the area of 2,500-3,000. All examples produced in 1804 are distinguished by a Crosslet 4 in the date and it is likely that as few as 75-85 pieces are known. Most are seen in the EF45 to AU53 range and high end AU’s are extremely scarce. In Uncirculated, the 1804 eagle is quite rare with an estimated six to eight accounted for. The finest of these include a single MS64 at NGC and a pair of MS63’s at PCGS.

Many 1804 eagles are distinguished by an odd strike in which the obverse appears to be buckled with ridges or waves in the fields. Coins from this die state are very difficult to grade as they tend to show considerable weakness on both the obverse and reverse. Examples are known that show a bolder, more even strike and these are considered to be especially desirable by specialists. The surfaces on many 1804 eagles have mint-made imperfections and most show handling marks or hairlines from past cleanings as well. The luster is frosty and some examples are slightly prooflike. The natural coloration is a distinctive green-gold but most have been dipped at one time. The eye appeal tends to be below average, mainly due to the strike characteristics described above.

An estimated 6 to 8 Proof 1804 Plain 4 eagles were struck in 1834 or 1835. One of these is included in the famous King of Siam Proof Set. The Proof 1804 eagles are considered among the most desirable of all early United States gold coins even though they were struck three decades after their date.

1804 eagles are currently valued at around $40,000 for an EF and $50,000-75,000+ for an AU. Uncirculated pieces, when available, are valued at $100,000 or more.

The early eagles struck between 1795 and 1804 form one of the most interesting groups of coins in all of American numismatics. They are extremely popular with collectors and despite the high cost of assembling such a set, there are a number of collectors who are working on date sets; some of which even feature the major naked-eye varieties for each year.

What Should I Collect?

Every few days I get asked the question “what should I collect?” I’d like to make some suggestions based on three different budget levels. A quick word on coin budgets before we delve into specifics. As a collector you should not overspend on coins. Buy within the parameters that make you comfortable. Spending $750 on a gold coin doesn’t make you any less of a collector than spending $75,000. I find that many collectors, as they grow more comfortable with their comprehension of the market, find it easier to shift from one budget level up to the next. As always, learn about what interests you as specialized knowledge in numismatics is invaluable. I. Low Budget ($1,000 per coin and below)

Gold coin collecting was not really designed for lower budget collectors. That said, there are plenty of interesting areas to collect in this price range. Here are three suggestions that I find interesting.

a) Common to Slightly Scarcer Date St. Gaudens Double Eagles in MS63 to MS64

This is a perfect area for the individual who is more of an investor than a collector and who would like to put together a nice “position” in the semi-numismatic market. There is something like 25 different dates of St. Gaudens double eagles available in grades up to and including MS64 for less than $1,000. None of these are rare and this is a collection that can be assembled reasonably quickly. This is also a collection that is perfect for the collector or investor who does not want to interact with coin dealers. I would have no problem telling a new collector that he would be perfectly safe buying these coins from a reputable Ebay seller or at auction. The only suggestions I would make is that all of the coins should be PCGS or NGC graded and either the Greysheet or recent auction price records should be consulted when deciding how much to spend on each coin.

b) Philadelphia Type Three Gold Dollars

With the exception of the 1863 and the rare 1875, nearly all of the 34 Type Three gold dollars produced at the Philadelphia mint can be obtained in Uncirculated grades for under $1,000. In the case of the common dates from the 1880’s, the collector can buy coins in grades as high in MS63 well within his allotted budget. The scarcer Civil War dates will probably have to be purchased in the AU55 to MS62 range and the 1873 Closed 3 will either require a stretching of the budget or a lower grade example. Some people will not be attracted to Gold Dollars because of their relatively small size. But I think this is an interesting series for a number of reasons. I like the design, the mintages are comparatively low and the level of production on most of the Philadelphia issues of this type is quite high. In my opinion, these coins seem like great value.

c) No Motto Philadelphia Gold

I recently wrote a blog about how I had “seen the light” regarding No Motto half eagles and eagles struck at the Philadelphia mint. There are numerous dates from the 1840’s and the 1850’s that are available to collectors with a budget of $1,000 or less per coin. In the half eagle series, virtually every date struck between 1843 and 1861 can be found in nice AU for under $1,000. Eagles from this era are rarer but there are still a number of dates that can be purchased in the EF45 to AU55 for less than $1,000. I haven’t mentioned the Philadelphia quarter eagles from this era but they are also extremely affordable.

Something that might make for an interesting challenge would be to select a specific date and to assemble a denomination set. As an example, a collector might decide to put together a set of 1855 Philadelphia coinage. There were a total of six denominations produced in this year and none of these are especially rare in circulated grades—or expensive.

I can, off the top of my head, think of a few other interesting areas in this price range. Examples include lower grade New Orleans quarter eagles, Indian Head quarter eagles (discounting the key 1911-D), lower grade Classic Head quarter eagles and half eagles and nearly all of the With Motto half eagles and eagles struck at the Philadelphia and San Francisco mints between 1880 and 1907.

II. Medium Budget ($1,000-5,000 per coin)

If you are able to afford coins in the medium budget range, your selection becomes considerable larger and more interesting. Here are some suggestions:

a) Charlotte and Dahlonega Quarter Eagles and Half Eagles with Original Color and Surfaces

This collection is a little more “conceptual” than the others listed in this section. It wouldn’t be a complete set and it might have three examples of, say, an 1846-D quarter eagle and none of another common date such as an 1843-D. It would focus on coins in the EF40 to AU55 grade range with most of the coins costing between $2,000 and $5,000.

As I have mentioned in many other articles, even the most common Charlotte and Dahlonega quarter eagles and half eagles are very scarce to rare with natural deep coloration and no signs of recent cleaning or processing. There may be 200-300 examples known of a certain issue but probably no more than 5-10% would be what I referred to as “original” in appearance. That’s what makes this set challenging and interesting.

To work on a set like this, the collector will need to learn what an original Charlotte or Dahlonega coin looks like; which may not be an easy feat, considering how few examples are available at auctions or coin shows these days.

b) Year Set of Liberty Head Eagles

Despite the fact that it contains many rarities, the long-lived Liberty Head eagle series has many affordable issues as well. It is possible to assemble a virtually complete year set of Liberty Head eagles if you have a budget of $1,000-5,000 per coin.

Here’s the catch: certain years in which this series was produced contain major rarities. As an example, the 1875 Philadelphia eagle is an incredibly rare coin with fewer than ten business strikes known. But the 1875-CC is more affordable and with some patience, a presentable VF can be obtained for $4,000-5,000. There are some years that are going to prove to be very hard for the Liberty Head eagle collector on a medium budget. These include the 1838 and the1863-1865. But if the collector is willing to accept a VF example of a few dates (or to stretch his budget for a few pieces) he should be able to put together a very nice set.

This is probably the most numismatic and most formidable project discussed in this price range. Given the fact that Liberty Head eagles were produced from 1838 to 1907 you are looking at a set with 70 coins; including a number which, in spite of relatively low catalog values, do not trade with regularity. I would expect that this project would take a number of years to complete and a commitment of at least $150,000-250,000+ to do it properly.

c) Scarce and Undervalued New Orleans Gold Coinage

The gist of this collecting strategy is to obtain a number of different undervalued New Orleans gold coins in the $1,000-5,000 range. It would not mean assembling any sort of complete set. I look at this strategy as something akin to an NFL team deciding to “draft the best available athlete,” even if they are already stocked at that player’s position.

My personal belief is that the best values in New Orleans gold coinage are in the half eagle and eagle denomination. If you have a budget in the $1,000-5,000 area, you are not going to be able to buy Finest Known or Condition Census coins but you will be able to obtain very presentable examples of some truly scarce and undervalued issues.

Some of the issues which fall under these parameters are as follows:

Half Eagles: 1843-O Small Letters, 1846-O, 1851-O, 1855-O, 1856-O, 1857-O and 1892-O.

Eagles: 1846-O, 1848-O, 1849-O, 1850-O, 1852-O, 1855-O, 1856-O, 1857-O, 1880-O, 1881-O, 1882-O, 1897-O and 1899-O.

There are certainly a number of other areas that collectors with a medium budget can explore. I would suggest New Orleans quarter eagles, Three Dollar gold pieces and Philadelphia Type One double eagles for starters and I can think of many more interesting possibilities.

III. High Budget ($5,000 and up per coin)

When a collector is able to afford $5,000 or more per coin, he has an almost unlimited number of potential collections. It is difficult to limit my list to three suggestions.

a) Bust Right Half Eagles, 1798-1807

This type actually dates back to 1795 but the first three (1795, 1796 and 1797) are expensive pieces that many collectors might not feel comfortable including in this set. The remaining nine issues (no half eagles were produced in 1801) are all relatively obtainable in grades ranging from Extremely Fine to MS62.

There are some variations that could make this set more challenging than just running out to a few big auctions and buying as many of these coins as possible. The first would be to use eye appeal and originality as a factor. In my experience, many of the early half eagles from this era have been cleaned or dipped and locating choice, original examples of many of the dates is extremely difficult. Secondly, this set could be expanded to include the different varieties listed in the Redbook. As an example, there is an 1804 half eagle with a Small 8 as well as the unusual Small 8 over Large 8 variety. The only year which this would really pinch the pocketbook would be for the 1798 where there are at least three major varieties known including the Large 8 14 Stars which is rare and fairly expensive.

b) Carson City Half Eagles or Eagles

I have always thought that Carson City half eagles and eagles are excellent sets for the collector with a higher coin budget. Both of these denominations were produced for just 19 years between 1870 and 1893. Neither denomination contains an impossibly rare or expensive issue or significant varieties which add to the complexity or cost of the core set.

Both denominations can be neatly categorized by the three decades in which they were produced. The issues from the 1870’s are generally seen well worn and even the more available dates are rare in properly graded AU and extremely rare in Uncirculated. The 1880’s issues are more readily available in circulated grades but tend to be very rare in Uncirculated. The 1890’s issues are, for the most part, fairly common in lower grades, sometimes available in the lower Uncirculated grades and rare to very rare in MS63 or better.

Nicely matched Carson City half eagle and eagle sets are very popular with collectors and I believe that these are two of the few sets that might actually be worth more as a well-matched unit than as an amalgamation of miscellaneous coins.

c) Bust Left Quarter Eagles, 1821-1834

This third and final suggestion is a personal favorite of mine. After a thirteen year hiatus, the quarter eagle denomination was resurrected in 1821, employing the John Reich Capped Head Left design. These coins were struck in 1821 and 1824-1827. In 1829, the design was modified and the diameter was reduced. The modified early quarter eagles were then struck from 1829-1834. In all, there are a total of eleven coins that form the complete series. Only one (the 1834) is very rare but even that issue is affordable when compared to the major rarities in the half eagle series of this era.

The 1821-1827 issues are generally seen in the AU50 to MS62 grade range while the 1829-1834 tend to be found in the AU55 to MS63 range. These coins did not see as much circulation as the quarter eagles produced prior to 1808 and many were melted.

For someone with a coin budget that can handle $15,000 or more per purchase, this is a great area to specialize in. The coins are rare but they are not so impossible that the set is essentially incompletable. They are also very good value when compared to the larger-sized early gold denominations.

There are innumerable other areas that collectors with a high budget can focus on. If you like large coins, focus on Type Two Liberty Head double eagles. If you prefer smaller coins, the Liberty Head quarter eagle series is very challenging but it contains a host of overlooked and undervalued issues.

The Availability of Original Southern Branch Mint Gold Coins - Part One

Need to get the rest of the article from Mary. In a recent blog (July 30, 2007) I discussed my criteria for what constitutes "originality." Using this criteria, how available are Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans gold coins? In the first of what may be a multi-part series of articles, I’m going to look at C, D and O mint gold dollars and discuss their availability with original surfaces and color.