As 2023 comes to an end, Douglas Winter Numismatics is taking some time to reflect on what was a great year for us, and a year which I’d rate as a 7 on a scale of 1 to 10 for the rare date gold market. It was a bit slower this year than the virtually unsustainable pace of the Covid-driven market of 2021-2022, but it was still a very good year overall (How good were 2021 and 2022? So good that I never had time to write What’s Hot/What’s Not articles for either year!).

FOUR AREAS WHICH WERE HOT IN 2024

1. Trash Twenties

In Late November 2019, the PCGS Price Guide valued the 1891-S $20 in PCGS MS63 at $1,650. Four years later, this same date is now valued at $5,000 with many actual auction sales at $4,000 or so. I (laughingly) refer to coins such as this as Trash Gold, but it appears that as of the end of 2023, this has been an area of the market which has shown surprising strength.

We can credit the large number of Trash half eagles, eagles, and double eagles to the Fairmont Hoard which put thousands and thousands of these coins on the market. The key to maximizing profits when selling this group of coins was to figure out a way to sell 500 1891-S double eagles in MS63 and MS64 at prices which were commensurate with their scarcity relative to a common date such as a 1904.

This is referred to as the MPF, or market premium factor, and as recently as 2018/19, it was very low for issues such as the 1891-S $20. If we look at PCGS population figures for the 1891-S $20, we see that 1,213 have been graded MS63 (plus 48 in MS63+) with 180 finer. If we then look at the 1904 (by far the most common date of this type) we see that PCGS has graded 77,796 in MS63 (plus 2,049 in MS63+), with another 51,372 finer. Based on these populations, the 1891-S is 64x scarcer than the 1904 in MS63, and 253x scarcer in MS64.

Of course this doesn’t mean that an 1891-S is worth 64x more in MS63 or 253x more in MS64 than a 1904. But you can make a pretty compelling case that if a 1904 is worth $2,300 in PCGS MS63 and $2,500 in PCGS MS64, then an MS63 1891-S at $3,500-4,000 is not a crazy premium.

The Fairmont Trash Gold is appearing for sale on a limited number of websites; mainly firms who specialize in bullion. If these firms are as capable of moving Fairmont coins as they are bullion and semi-numismatics, then I believe the premiums for Trash Twenties are sustainable.

As long as gold remains strong in 2024, I expect this area of the market to continue to sell well in 2024.

2. Large Sized Proof Gold

Just take a look at the following 2022/2023 auction prices for Proof Liberty Head double eagles:

1860 $20, PCGS PR65+ CAM. Sold for $1,200,000 at the Heritage 9/2022 Bass sale. The last comparable APR brought $367,188 in Heritage’s 2014 ANA auction.
1861 $20, PCGS PR66 DCAM. Sold for $1,800,000 at the Heritage 2022 FUN sale. This exact coin brought $483,000 in August 2006 at Heritage’s ANA auction.
1863 $20, PCGS/CAC PR65+ DCAM. Sold for $1,020,000 in Heritage’s May 2022 sale. The most recent record for this date was in August 2014 when an NGC PR66 realized $381,875.
1885 $20, PCGS/CAC PR67 DCAM. Sold for $990,000 as Stack’s Bowers 11/2022: 5109. In August 2012, an NGC PR67 sold for $229,125.
1907 Liberty $20, PCGS/CAC PR66 DCAM. Sold for $480,000 in the Heritage 2022 auction. In 2004, a PCGS PR66 sold for $86,250.

I realize that the interval between sales for all five of these coins is long (almost two decades for the extremely rare 1861), but all the results far exceeded what I predicted.

It doesn’t take many wealthy collectors deciding to specialize in Proof $20s to make prices for top quality coins to double or even triple. These collectors don’t want to buy any coins graded below PR64, which is why lesser quality examples of this type have not kept up with their PR64 and finer counterparts. When these collectors learn that a specific date hasn’t been offered in any grade (in PR65 and finer) since, say, 2014, the significance of an opportunity to acquire this coin becomes very clear.

*1897 $20.00 PCGS PR64CAM CAC sold by DWN in 2023*

One thing that I find surprising about this area of the market is that more coins haven’t come on to the market. If I owned a Type One or Type Two in PR64 or higher, and it was acquired at pre-COVID prices, I’d want to test the market and see if I could realize double or triple my cost.

I’m not positive these prices are sustainable, so I expect a bit of a slowdown on seven-figure Proof $20s, but a strong increase in focus on nice Proof Liberty head eagles as they seem cheap in comparison.

3. Dahlonega Gold

There is no doubt in my mind that Dahlonega gold in a wide variety of grades was one of the strongest areas in the 2023 rare gold market.

Very few interesting gold dollars from this facility were offered for sale in 2023. For the key dates, there were only one sold for the 1855-D (a PCGS AU58), one 1856-D (an NGC MS61), and one straight graded 1860-D (a PCGS MS61 which set a record for the grade). There were four 1861-D dollars sold in 2023, with the finest of these a PCGS/CAC MS63 which brought $180,000. This tied the record price for the date in this grade with the previous sale occurring in 2022.

The number of interesting Dahlonega quarter eagles sold in 2023 was even smaller than the gold dollars cited above. In fact, the only D mint quarter eagle which I can remember fetching more than $50k was the nice PCGS/CAC 1856-D which brought $72,000 as Stack’s Bowers 2023 ANA: 5104.

I handled very few quarter eagles from Dahlonega in 2023, but the ones I did list on my site all sold extremely quickly; most within an hour of being posted and often with multiple inquiries.

Half eagles traded with more regularity and some notable prices from auctions included a PCGS AU55 1839-D at $33,600, an MS62 PCGS/CAC 1852-D at $24,000, a PCGS/CAC MS64+ 1853-D Large D at $86,500, and a PCGS/CAC 1855-D Large D at $24,000.

I expect all nice D mint gold to remain very strong through 2024

4. Territorial

Based on personal experience, the market for Territorial gold showed a good deal of growth in 2023. This was true for the less expensive “meat and potatoes” issues as well as for world-class rarities. Collectors were primarily seeking coins which had been approved by CAC and which were free of serious marks. Original color was another essential component for a coin selling for strong money and coins in the $5,000-20,000 range which were nice were almost impossible to keep in stock.

*Clark Gruber $10.00 sold by DWN in 2023*

The two most memorable sales for Territorial gold in 2023 were both from Stack’s Bowers November auction. A PCGS PR63 example of the iconic 1855 Kellogg & Co $50 graded PR63 CAM by PCGS broke a record for the issue at $780,000, while a rare 1860 Clark Gruber $20 graded AU55 by PCGS brought $552,000. In June 2022, an NGC AU55 example of the same issue brought $600,000.

From 2019 through the first half of 2022, this was a market which I was able to procure a number of impressive six-figure rarities, but there is strong competition now for these coins.

I expect the market to remain strong for all nice Territorials through 2024, especially because of the superb new book on the subject

THREE AREAS WHICH WERE NOT HOT IN 2023

1. Commemorative Gold

In 2013, a total of seven PCGS MS65 1905 Lewis and Clark gold dollars sold at auction. Prices ranged from a low of $5,875 to a high of $11,500, with five of the sales topping the $7,500 mark. Ten years later, we saw two PCGS MS65 Lewis and Clark dollars sell at auction, and both brought $3,360.

Every time I write this end of the year article, gold commems appear on the “what’s not hot” list. This could be rectified if a large marketing firm were to promote these coins. The problem with this is that while unpopular, some of the issues which make-up this set are hard to locate in any quantity, and what’s the point of a promotion if you can’t locate more than three 1905 MS65 Lewis and Clarks?

The problem with gold commemoratives is that they are small, not especially interesting, and their population figures are not really compelling. The 1905 L+C dollar has a PCGS population of 280 in MS65 with 112 finer. In MS67, this issue is actually rare (just eight at PCGS with one in MS67+), but at its current value of $30,000, it is already expensive.

I can’t see this scenario changing anytime soon, but at current levels, MS65 and MS66 gold commemoratives seen undervalued.

2. Better Date Indian Head Half Eagles in “off” Grades

As a result of hoards, better date Indian Head half eagles in “off” grades (in this case MS61 and MS62) have become more available. In June 2020, the PCGS population of the 1909-O in MS61 was 29 coins with 50 finer. Today it is 35 in MS61 with 59 finer. While the addition of six in MS61 and nine finer (nearly all of the newly graded coins were MS62) may not seem like many coins, in a thinly traded market such as Indian Head half eagles, there are not enough new collectors building sets to absorb these new coins. As a result, prices for non-CAC coins have dropped.

I consider MS61 and MS62 Indian Head gold to be off-quality as collectors on somewhat limited budgets will buy AU55 and AU58 coins, while those with bigger budgets are likely to buy MS63 or MS64 examples of dates such as the 1909-O and the 1911-D. In MS61 and MS62, an already thin market looks even bleaker,

As long as the supply of these better date Indian Head half eagles continue to rise, prices are likely to stay flat or drop.

3. Coins With No Character

One of the trademarked slogans for DWN is “coins with character.” I don’t care if a coin is $500 or $50,000; if doesn’t have character (which might mean warm natural color on one coin or amazing frosty surfaces on another) I don’t want it in my collection. And neither should you.

a black box without a photo of an ugly coin

As recently as a few years ago, collectors were told to prefer bright gold coins. While this might have made sense for, say, a 1932 $10, it made no sense for a 1799 $10.

Unfortunately, thousands of significant US gold coins were ruined in an attempt to squeeze out as much profit for the seller as possible. An area which was devastated by professional conservation was Matte Proof gold were certain dates probably now have survival rates of under 5% of the original mintage which haven’t been ruined by overzealous conservation.

In recent years, new collectors entering the market have become more fixated on coins with “natural” surfaces. I find that some of these new collectors don’t really understand originality and consider coins with second-generation color to be “original.” However, they are refusing to purchase bleached, colorless Matte Proof $20s graded PR66 or PR67 that were seemingly everywhere a decade ago.

With so much coin business done online, coins need character to sell. One of the first questions I ask myself when I view a potential new coin is “how photogenic is it?” Or—in other words—does it have character.

This is a trend which is likely here for good. If the coin doesn’t sing, it’s not a good thing…

Any additions to this list? Please email me at dwn@ont.com or leave a comment.

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The Annual DWN What's Hot / What's Not List: 2023 Edition